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@Danielle
Their responsibility is to their shareholders, and if you want to make a moral case which I think is perfectly fine, then we also have to consider what kind of moral responsibility if any Twitter has to limit the spread of disinformation and its potentially harmful effects.
What do you make of the fact that misinformation is only censored in one direction? For example, all of the things I brought up were either facts or highly debatable but they were censored, whereas I have never seen anyone censored for saying misinformation such as Covid being highly dangerous to children. This before getting into the culture war issues. How much misinformation about white people or Christians do you think is corrected or censored? You mentioned that the J6 rioters were radicalized online, but so were black lives matters rioters, and probably all rioters these days. So much of real life and online have intertwined. But I only see the concern about one side. That doesn’t come from a responsibility to their shareholders, that’s a moral stand so the company is open to moral criticism, like being hypocritical, censoring perfectly legitimate opinions, etc etc
Do you find it at all concerning that, when it comes to Covid at least, the definition of “misinformation” was quite literally “things the government says are false”?
I guess my problem is that these services are essentially monopolistic. Even the alternatives you brought up, which as you point out suck because they are just circle jerks, were immediately hamstrung by big tech (for example being immediately removed from app stores, or having their web services pulled.)
At the end of the day I don’t really see that much of a distinction between being forced to shut up by he government or by a metacult that does the job of a censorious government for it. I certainly don’t feel like a free man, I can tell you that, and it isn’t just because of big tech.
Do you know how many women I know that are pregnant or trying to get pregnant, and were scared to take the vaccine for exactly that reason Nikki brought up (fertility issues) which have so far been completely unproven? Note that 1 in 4 pregnancies end in miscarriage. I know women who have miscarried after getting the vaccine and suffered emotional distress because of bullshit posts like the ones made by Nikki that made them think they were at fault when there is no observed harm from the Covid vaccine.
There were concerns about the vaccine and fertility from the very beginning. I’m not really sure why. Maybe people are just naturally concerned about that kind of thing or it came from the menstrual cycle issue. It’s not a surprise that people going through a tragic event are looking for something to blame. But is the right path really to punish them for that instead of explaining how it’s wrong? Frankly if I saw a bunch of posts from women saying they took the vaccine and then had a miscarriage and then all of those posts that I kept seeing kept getting deleted and the people banned that makes me more suspicious than the posts left alone. But that’s just me. And by banning them you certainly aren’t changing THEIR minds.
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Tucker Carlson:
"We've all heard of Lord Voldemort. The News Media wants you to hate him. But has anyone ever listened to what he says? He may not seem like a leader. He certainly doesn't look or sound the part, at least in the eyes of our corrupt and stupid elite. Tonight we have a special guest on, not Lord Voldemort, but someone who knows him well. You can decide what to think for yourself. Bellatrix Lestrange, thanks for coming on"
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"Thank you, presiden' trump. I butcher's hook fawward 'o fur'her oppaw'uni'ies 'o facili'a'e a produc'ive rela'ionship be'ween our 'wo coun'ries. I especially apprecia'e your willingness 'o begin 'he process ov mugglebawn reeduca'ion wi'hin your coun'ry, an' 'he re'urn ov 'he war criminals who fled 'here in 'he 1990s."
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Obama:
"I just had uhh the opportunity to uhh have a productive meeting with Lord Voldemort. We talked about foreign policy, we talked about domestic policy, we talked about how to better maintain the United States special relationship with Wizarding Britain. And uhm, I uhh, have been very encouraged by Lord Voldemort's interest in wanting to work with my team on the many issues our countries face. It uh, is very important uh for us to come together. Lord Voldemort, the United States stands with you."
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Another idea I had is a story where Voldemort won, spends a few decades stomping out resistance in Britain, takes over the Muggle world but doesn't really know what to do after that because he is so provincially minded. The entire fanfiction is him getting wined and dined by real life heads of states.
Donald Trump: "wow, what can you even say? I don't agree with everything he does but he ran a great campaign didn't he? A true winner...he did an amazing job. Agree or disagree, he did a truly amazing job. Lord Voldemort, thank you." and they awkwardly shake hands
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I'm thinking about writing a Harry Potter fanfiction titled Harry Potter and the Great Conversion. The fic takes place in the 2017-2019 era. Some critical highlights:
Harry Potter has become an evangelical Christian who gives up magic, believing that it comes from the devil. He now votes Tory, hates Remoaners, and enjoys sharing Barry Stanton tweets with his cousin Dudley.
Ginny has gained 50+ lbs since the events of the Deathly Hallows and she and Harry sleep in separate rooms. Harry has not divorced her. He says it's because of his faith and that divorce is a sin, but really it's because they eloped as soon as she turned 17 and there's no prenup, and he doesn't know how he would make a living in the Muggle world. He reluctantly allows his children to go to Hogwarts but they spend most of the summer in church camp
Harry's son is a Voldemort apologist who doesn't agree with what he did, but thinks that if he hadn't sold his soul to dark magic he would've been remembered as a great visionary. Jokes about being "only a quarter mudblood" to the great offense of his sister
The Wizarding World has been demographically transformed after Tony Blair opened up the floodgates to immigration in 1997. Slytherin, the ambitious house, now has a negative reputation as the uncool striver house populated mostly by the children of Chinese and Indian immigrants. The remaining purebloods are mostly in Gryffindor
Ron and Hermione had a brutal divorce, Ron's son hates women as a result and is kind of a wizarding Elliot Rodger
Flashback scenes reveal that Voldemort had an overwhelming cockney accent the entire time. "'Bout endadaline fa yew 'Arry Pah-Tah, innit? Moi dath aters wi sho ya what fa!"
What do you guys think? Trying to workshop this idea
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@Airmaxfan2000
I'm glad a patriotic young man like 7th has stepped up and offered to lead us all to a brighter future
我爱辩论艺术天安门,太阳升起辩论艺术天安门,伟大的第七主席带领我们前进
Wǒ ài biànlùn yìshù tiān'ānmén, tàiyáng shēng qǐ biànlùn yìshù tiān'ānmén, wěidà de dì qī zhǔxí dàilǐng wǒmen qiánjìn
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@Danielle
Great post. Qualified immunity is an abomination
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@RationalMadman
I didn’t realize she was still banned. I have seen some evidence that the vaccines have somewhat more side effects than typical especially for young people. The thing is that even if the rumors are true (like myocarditis) the vaccine cost benefit analysis is very positive for anyone over the age of 40 or who is overweight or who has a pre existing condition. Which is probably like 90% of the us population. So I can understand why they don’t want people to doubt
I don’t know why they couldn’t have just said that. Like if they had come out and said “we in the public health field believe that these vaccines are safe and effective and will be taking them ourselves. Because of the urgency of the situation there is a slight risk that they will have a higher than usual number of side effects. We encourage everyone to get vaccinated” I think there’s a very poor understanding of the psychology of a certain person. Like for me, when the vaccine first came out I was excited, finally a vaccine! But then there was immediately a coordinated campaign to shut down any discussion of side effects, and the beginnings of coercion to get people vaccinated. Which threw up so many red flags for me. Eventually the weight of the evidence added up and the anti vaccine argument just didn’t make sense to me. But it took a lot longer, for me at least, than if they had just left well enough alone
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@ResurgetExFavilla
I was trying to make my post as palliative as possible but yeah I take a more dismal view of it personally. But I would have a harder time proving that with someone like Danielle who doesn’t share a lot of the assumptions you and I do. But I don’t know if there is even any coercion. There really doesn’t need to be. The goals and ideologies of the people who run big tech and the people who run the administrative state are perfectly aligned
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@3RU7AL
You are doing quite well in the poll, a true dark horse candidate. In a few days I’ll make another removing wylted and adding TheHammer
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@rbelivb
If God wanted to make His presence obvious and objectively provable, He would. But He does not, because if there is a God He must value human choice. I think the Bible shows this aspect of God quite clearly. Throughout history there have always been plausible arguments for and against God, and they're never going to get resolved whether He exists or not. If He does exist, He clearly doesn't want His existence to be overwhelmingly obvious. If He does not, I don't know if our human brains are ever going to be able to understand how something came from nothing and/or how something has always existed. There will always be an opportunity for the God of the gaps. It will be an open question now and forever--on Earth at least.
I believe in God because I feel God in my heart. My religion works for me. I can make plausible sounding arguments, but that isn't why I believe. If you want God in your life He will come, but it's probably not going to be through a syllogism.
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@Danielle
I think your view on this is probably colored by Donald Trump being the major ban that conservatives rally around as proof that big tech censorship is a problem. While I wouldn’t have made the decision to ban Trump while he was the sitting President if I were in charge I understand why they did. His post election behavior was completely unacceptable and at the time had just led to a riot that could’ve spiraled into something extremely dangerous. Making him out to be a victim is a very weak argument so I can understand why people dismiss it.
I’ll propose to you what I think is a stronger case. I can’t vouch for other tech websites because I don’t really use them, but as a regular Twitter lurker I have seen people repeatedly banned over the past eighteen months for speaking about things that are either facts or are highly debatable.
For example, people were banned for discussing the possibility that COVID-19 leaked from a lab, something that the US intelligence community believes is a highly plausible possibility although they don’t believe we will ever know for sure.
I’ve seen people banned for suggesting that clothe masks are ineffective and represent nothing but security theater, something the CDC is now reluctantly admitting
I’ve seen people banned for reporting on the fact that lots of women were reporting disruption to their menstrual cycle after receiving the Covid vaccine, something that a new study reported on by the NYT this week has confirmed.
^ I want to emphasize I’m not anti vax at all I’m actually super pro vaccine especially for anyone 40+. But the fact that there were all these side effects that I knew were happening that people were being banned for talking about scared the shit out of me and made me resist getting vaccinated until I did a lot of research that I don’t expect many people to do.
I didn’t personally witness is but I’m sure if someone suggested that doctors and nurses who literally have a Covid positive test but no symptoms should be expected to go to work they would’ve been banned, but this is the new policy.
Covid is the biggest issue right now, and I don’t think that not being allowed to discuss every aspect of it on the vast majority of the internet without approval from the government is how a free people discuss issues.
It’s true that the government isn’t forcing these companies to ban anything that disagrees with the CDC, but if they do it by choice is there really that much of a difference? At the end of the day people aren’t allowed to have important discussions. And to add insult to injury the official sources have consistently been slower on the draw than random autodidacts. A lot of the people who warned me about Covid in January 2020 when the CDC was saying it was no big deal have been banned.
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@Lunatic
Is this really how you want to be behaving as a 30+ year old man? Please apologize to Pie who is free to vote for whoever he likes
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@Bones
what idiot said no to the first question.
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Editing the OP with a poll that I think is better. If you already voted please revote in this one https://strawpoll.com/ukf3po5hz
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So is this actually air max? Is so lol. My man can’t turn the opportunity to have a tiny internet fiefdom
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Personally I have never forgiven moderation for banning my close real life friend, Tyrone
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I wasn’t expecting so many quality responses. I will try to respond to all this weekend
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It seems like "inheritance" is a bit of a dirty word. Virtually no one who has the opportunity to receive one turns it down, but it's something people don't really talk about. I understand this in some sense because it is certainly uncouth to brag and it's hard to talk about without coming off as a braggart. And of course people are going to be jealous. But it seems to come from something deeper than that, it seems as if people are embarrassed or ashamed to be living with the support of family money. I see all the time people making statements like "you're living off the fruits of someone else's labor" and other sentiments that make me think that people have a pretty dismal view of those who gain wealth that they didn't earn themselves.
Here is my basic position on inheritance:
I disagree with the enlightenment (for lack of a better word) idea that the basic building block of a society is the individual. A society of solitary individuals is not a society at all. Not any more than solitary bears and tigers can be described as having a society. The basic building block of society is NOT the individual, but rather the relationships between individuals. The most basic, and the most powerful, of which is the family. So when money passes from parents to their children, I don't see it as a transfer of wealth from one person to another, but rather I see it as wealth remaining within the same entity, like how property and copyrights and such remain within a corporation even when there is turnover. It's the same entity. I also completely disagree with the Anglo-American/Protestant idea that as soon as someone is 18, their parents are done with them.
I not only support inheritance and intergenerational wealth transfers, but see them as a moral imperative. When I see parents with means allow their children to take on student loan debt and struggle to make rent, I see parents who are failing in their obligations and who are aborting their potential grandchildren. I believe that the entire point of building wealth is so that you can give it to your children, to ensure that they lead lives of high quality, and bear you grandchildren.
My personal backstory is one of lots of financial support from my family. I've never received an inheritance and my parents never straight up gave me money, but they paid for my college and allowed me to live at home rent free for a few years before I got married. This constitutes a very significant wealth transfer, well into the six figures. It also resulted in me being financially ready to have a child long before most of my peers, so I think it will end up being a very good deal for their personal happiness. This is something that I want to do for my kids when the time comes, if not support them even further.
If you receive in inheritance you have an obligation to take care of it, to keep it healthy and to pass it on when your time comes. The lazy bum living a lavish lifestyle off the sale of his dads company is acting immorally not because he has an obligation to society to work, but because he has an obligation to his family not to squander what previous generation have earned.
Politically this means I am opposed to an inheritance tax. The US has inheritance tax laws that only kick in at an extremely high amount of wealth ($11 million) so I am not really concerned with the law here. But I'm opposed all the same, because I view family money as remaining within the same entity, so an inheritance tax constitutes an act of double taxation. That money has already been taxed, just as a firms assets should not be taxed when the CEO changes a families assets should not be taxed when the makeup of the family changes. I am strongly opposed to the types of inheritance taxes you see in European countries, which often kick in at very low thresholds of around $100-$300k. I would contend that a person should ABSOLUTELY be able to inherit millions of dollars without the government getting involved at all. Something I don't think most people would agree with.
What do you guys think? What's your view on the morality of inheritance? I hope this didn't come off as preachy but instead articulated a viewpoint.
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Actually this is his third settlement. My guess is that he walked away with a few hundred k after lawyer fees. And because of what happened to him, he will be able to get a nice sinecure at any right wing organization if he so chooses. So overall I think he walks away with a win, but I wish these media companies were severely punished for what they did to an innocent child
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@dfss9788
Well who knows what they really settled for. I've talked to corporate lawyers before about their settlement strategy. It's usually to keep dragging things out until the other side gets in a financial bind and needs the money.
Whatever he got it definitely wasn't in the multimillions. At least I seriously doubt it was because he already got a settlement from another media company. If I were in his shoes and just won five mil in a settlement I'm going all the way to trial in my other lawsuits so that we can have discovery. Media personalities and celebrities at the time were publicly all but calling for him to be lynched (demanding his name and address) so I imagine some employees of these networks made some truly vile comments behind closed doors that would be found during discovery.
However I do know that there was some drama between his former lawyers over the settlement money so it isn't nothing. He's most likely he's getting a few hundred thousand with each settlement if I had to guess
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@Double_R
But that conversation is natural, so I don’t think this is at all concerning from a left wing perspective. Conservatism is by definition about conserving the past, future generations have no interest in that which is why younger voters tend to be far more liberal than their parents.Another factor here is the urban rural divide, which is a far bigger indicator of how a population will view political issues. So unless cities dwindle in population while rural areas boom, I wouldn’t expect anything to change there either. In fact a population boom in rural areas would only make them see things more like their liberal counterparts.
Yeah I am surprised at how well the Republican party does considering that it basically offers nothing other than the Democrats don't get to be in charge. Hopefully one day it's taken over by someone with an actual vision but that is for another thread. As for the highlighted bit, I agree to some extent but a few things...
1) It does appear that younger groups are less liberal than they appear on the surface because for whatever reason the most politically engaged young people lean left and have for a long time. Take a look at the exit polls of 18-30 year olds in 2008 and compare them with 30-44 year olds in 2020 (the same cohort.) There was a substantial shift to the right as more people filter in, though still a left leaning group overall. People also say "oh you're more conservative when you get older" but I don't really agree with that, I think it's more about who votes and who doesn't at different points in life. Maybe people get more economically conservative as they get richer, lol
2) Political ideology is largely heritable. Not enough that people can't be won over through conversion. It's estimate to be around 40% heritable: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352154620300553 If liberals aren't breeding enough to maintain their population share without conversion, the gene pool does get more "conservative" as time goes on so one would think that would make future conversion more difficult.
3) The gap between conservative and liberal mothers really opened up in the past decade or so, and trends take a long time to taper off. So if this does actually matter we won't know the full impact for another 20-30 years if not even longer
I really would dismiss this at your own peril. I don't think it's enough to make a right wing majority but it probably counters a few pro-left trends. IDK. I also see a meaningful distinction between a Democratic party led by the children of conservatives and a Democratic party led by so called "red diaper babies" I would expect those groups to behave very differently in a lot of ways
For the other bit, there has not been a baby boom in rural areas, but US fertility rates took a large hit in the 2010s that was less pronounced in rural areas. And a boomlet could be forming...so far we have January through June 2021 data and births have increased the most in more rural states and declined in heavily urbanized states but it's way too early to tell if that's an actual trend or just a one off.
I don’t find any of this surprising though when you look at it, the less dense a population then less there is to do. If I lived in the middle of no where (no offense to anyone living in rural America) I would probably have lots of babies too. Plus it’s so much cheaper as you mentioned that it just makes sense.
I think it has much more to do with cost of living than people simply having nothing to do. I think birthrates in rural America would be a lot higher if the economy wasn't so disastrous in many areas. Ultimately the US is a very heavily urban/suburban country at this point despite having such a huge landmass, so differential birth rates between these areas won't make that much of a difference unless the difference was massive (and it isn't)...the real question is within each type of living (urban, suburban, rural) who is breeding more? Seems to be religious and right leaning people but idk for sure
Overall this may bring some hard times for future generations economically, but is ultimately good for the species and the earth. There are too many people on this planet and resources are already stretching too thin. Only 1% of the earths water is drinkable and towns around the world are starting to run out. Treating salt water is expensive, so the price of everything will skyrocket. We are quite possibly living in the most preposterous time in human history.
But what do you expect to happen if the people who care about the environment and sustainability die off and people who don't share those concerns continue breeding? I agree that in a different circumstance over population could be a concern but given birth rates I'm more concerned about population collapse...very unprecedented times for sure
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@Yassine
- That hit the nail on the head. Europeans were successful in colonizing much of the World largely owing to population size. Europe experienced an unprecedented & interrupted population explosion in the 18th & 19th century. In fact, up to early or mid 18th century, the Ottoman Empire was on a stalemate with European powers, boasting a comparable GDP to the rest of Europe combined, & -along with vassal states- also a similar population. By the 19th century, however, single European countries (such as France, Germany, UK...) had each a larger population than the entire Ottoman Empire. Contest became untenable. This is exactly what is happening to the Western world. Today, the Muslim world has more than twice the population of the West, & 4 times by 2060. The only conceivable way the West could retain back their population in the future is if they purge the Liberal virus & go back to faith.
Yeah exactly, they just exported huge chunks of their population. It's fading a bit now due to low birth rates and immigration, but it's bizarre to think that there were four entire other countries (USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia) where the majority of the population was of British descent...this island that was a backwater with a tiny population for almost all of history. It would've been unimaginable, but what is happening now is similarly unimaginable to someone from 1950. I think you're right that it whichever groups survive this selection will probably come from traditionalist religious groups. I wonder if we will see the populations of the West replaced in a way similar to what happened to indigenous people in colonial times. I hope not for obvious reasons but I can see it happening when the majority of the population just gives up...
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Another aspect of this people don’t think about it warfare. I know there have been relatively few wars in the past decades due to Pax Americana but that’s going to eventually end at SOME point. I know there will be further increases in technology, robots, drones, etc but fighting men being totally obsolete is a “I’ll believe it when I see it” thing for me
A society with low birth rates would get rolled by one with high birth rates. Pretty much no matter how the war is going, there’s going to be massive political pressure to sue for peace pretty much immediately when you have tons of families with four grandparents, two parents, and one son losing their progeny. Even if wars of the future are fought with robots and drones and technology the last time industrialized economies went toe to toe it didn’t take long before they were indiscriminately killing each other’s civilians, so the same pressures would apply whether people are dying on the battlefields or in bombings
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@Yassine
- Interesting! Add to wildcards Muslims as well, maybe Hindus too. It's sad how by the onset of the 20th century, Whites constituted almost 40% the global population -that's China & India combined, with a global majority of urban population. Yet, in a couple of decades they won't even amount to 10%, & even less further into the future. Then, there were 6-7 times more Whites than Blacks, by 2070 the ratio will literally reverse. All thanks to the great & magnificent Western Values.
Yeah I didn’t want to go there because it does seem like TFR’s are falling everywhere, including in the Islamic world and Africa, but clearly any society that manages to hold onto a decent birth rate is going to have a huge advantage in the future. Right now I have my eyes on Central Asia, especially the “Stans”. Kazakhstan bottomed out at 1.8 twenty years ago and is now back to 2.9….hard to see that happening in a western country
I do think you are onto something with the highlighted bit. Fertility rates crashed in Latin America almost on a dime once smart phones (and therefore social media) became affordable. And my pet theory is that some of the countries with the worst fertility rates are ones that have huge amounts of western influence but also vestiges of traditional culture. For example, in South Korea there is feminism, women are doing just as well as men economically etc, but the man/his family is still expected to provide the house when there’s a marriage. No wonder people are having difficulty starting families
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@Double_R
Biden rolling back Trump’s policies means we end up right back to the same laws we’ve had in place for the past few decades. I get that you find Trump’s policies better by comparison, but once again, you are blaming the surge on Biden and his policies when there has been no significant change to any longstanding US policy on this. So if we weren’t seeing these numbers with the same policies before, why is the surge Biden’s fault now? This is what I’m talking about when I point to correlation =/= causation.
I’m not sure why the bogus asylum claim crisis became an issue in the late 2010s and not before, even though the laws hadn’t changed. I guess word just got around that this loophole existed. Or maybe people always knew about it but things in Central America got really bad in the late 2010s. I really don’t know. But the crisis did start happening at that point when it didn’t exist before—those are just the facts. That the law didn’t change doesn’t change the fact that Trumps patchwork of solutions did seem to work, unless we can come up with some other reason that the crisis dissipated rather quickly, and restarted as soon as those polices were repeated. The issue with the policies was that they came from executive action instead of congress and so an open borders President can just repeal them. Which is exactly what happened
As far as the long standing policies go, I would absolutely LOVE to change our asylum laws to make sure this can’t happen again. Is Biden pushing for that, or did he just tear off the band aid without trying to address the underlying issue?
And not for nothing, but do you not think Trump’s hyper-focus on this issue has had something to do with this as well? I mean the guy rambles on and on about how stupid our immigration laws are all the time. Before he came along I had no idea what asylum laws were, and most people had never even heard the term. Now it’s a prominent national debate the whole world is talking about. You can’t argue that this has had nothing to do with it, especially while you simultaneously argue that migrant awareness of our laws is a major catalyst here.
I don’t know but I doubt that potential illegals were watching Trump campaign rallies. A lot of this stuff comes from open borders NGO’s who coach migrants into having the best odds of getting in. making false asylum claims here happened only a few years after it became an issue in Europe in 2015, so I imagine it was inspired by that in some way
As far as the other stuff you said I’m sure the right isn’t blameless. I shouldn’t have made those posts, I was just in a bad mood at that point. The policy conversation is more interesting
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@rbelivb
That's what I mean. It's not that you are talking about inflation because it's at a multi decade high, and think tanks also happen to be talking about it. It's that you're talking about inflation because think tanks conspired to make it a talking point, and it also happens to be at a multi decade high.
Dude I’m rich and I’m noticing inflation. It’s very real, not a conspiracy, and absolutely something that a normal person would notice and be concerned by
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@rbelivb
I don’t know what to tell you. Inflation IS at a multi decade high. I’m not supposed to talk about it because some think tanks are presumably talking about it as well? It’s a conspiracy to talk about it?
I seriously don’t understand the point you are trying to make. Yes think tanks exist. They exist to push an agenda. These agendas are often in contradiction with each other, and there are think tanks broadly affiliated with every part of the political spectrum. For example CIS exists basically for the sole purpose of arguing for immigration restrictions…CATO supports open borders. But these two organizations are involved in a successful conspiracy to lead right wing voters a certain way, even though they themselves advocate for different things.
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The emerging democratic majority is probably bunk FWIW. The politics of the country will change a lot but it's a lot more likely that hispanics and working class whites will form a coalition that freezes out upper class liberal and business conservative whites and black people imo. I don't think most people see it this way yet though
In case anyone is wondering here is how I see it
Trump 2020 was the absolute worst candidate for suburban/upper class white people due to his general obnoxious and improper behavior. You can like it or dislike it, but it’s simply a fact that propriety is very important to middle class voters. But Trump still won like 42-45% of college educated whites. It’s possible that number slips further but with a sane candidate I kind of doubt it. This group will probably be largely irrelevant for the next few cycles without a lot of shifting
Meanwhile Biden made big gains with white working class voters who believed he was a moderate, who now disapprove of his performance. Despite Biden making inroads with working class whites, and this groups relative share continuing to decline, Trump still almost won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Dems still have a lot of room to fall in these states and I expect them to be reliable Republican states pretty soon.
The way dems had planned to counter that was through winning sun belt states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona. But if Hispanics continue to shift R (and I think they will, especially when the GOP eventually ditches zombie Reaganesque economic policies) that locks down Texas and Florida, and brings Arizona and possibly Nevada back into the fold. ESPECIALLY if there’s even a dash of recovery among college educated whites. Georgia will probably stay dem. There’s your coalition right there, Trumps 2016 map minus Georgia and maybe plus Nevada
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@Double_R
Again, I’m not arguing that Biden’s roll back of Trump’s policies don’t account for any of it, I’m just asking those who are branding this as a problem almost entirely of Biden’s creation substantiate that claim.
So the vast majority of these people are coming are here to claim asylum. They started doing this en masse in 2018/2019 because there is a giant loophole in our asylum laws, which pretty much ensures that people must receive a hearing. This sounds nice when you're talking about political dissidents and such, but it's not so nice when millions of people take advantage of this and make asylum claims that are 99% false. Trump implemented a ton of policies aimed at destroying the incentive to make bogus asylum claims, including but not limited to forcing people to wait in Mexico until their hearing, punishing people for crossing illegally (which is a crime), pressuring other governments to make sure that migrants couldn't get to the border in the first place, and expelling almost everyone due to title 42. So the incentive to try and come became rather low, as you weren't going to make it into the country. Crossings went down to near multi decade lows even before the pandemic
Biden came in office and reversed every single one of these policies. Now people come to the border and they are released into the country, often times without a court date. Thus the incentive to illegally immigrate went way, way up. The numbers followed and they haven't slowed down yet. I'm not dishonest so I am perfectly willing to admit that at least part of the surge is driven by the economic circumstances we're in. But that's no reason to think that actually letting most of these people in doesn't just encourage more to come! I think if Biden had continued Trump's policies there would have been a surge early on that would have dissipated after people realized there was no policy change and they can't just get in. Attempts to cross would still be higher than 2020 lows, but not very far outside of the post-great recession norm.
No, it probably wouldn’t but whether you accept it or not that is the issue. Biden’s policies wouldn’t mean a damn thing if these people didn’t find their conditions so horrible that they would literally risk their lives and that of their families to trek across an entire country to possibly be let into a land completely foreign to them in the hopes that they might find a better life for themselves. Folks like yourself talk as if these people are just hopping in vans and going for a joyride. The issue is much bigger than “let’s deter them by making them wait in Mexico”.
I do accept that it would be better for everyone if their countries were made safer and more prosperous. But it's not an either or thing, and I don't know what the US can reasonably do to help. Maybe ending the drug war or something, I don't know. I know it doesn't seem like it, and I do a very poor job of conveying it, but I do have genuine sympathy for people who are suffering. However we need to have a border, the rule of law can't be subverted because of feelings. There are hundreds of millions of poor and suffering people out there, we can't take in them all without destroying our country.
Yeah, I was waiting for this. It’s a war against White people. Got it.
Well, it's a war against conservatives more than white people. If recent immigrants were an overwhelmingly GOP group Biden would be bringing the hammer down on legal and illegal immigration, regardless of race. What would you call it if one group subverts the law whenever they are in office, for the purpose of damaging the prospects of another group? And a lot of the stuff I hear is very racially coded. Idk how else I should be expected to feel about it
Can you provide an example or two of a prominent left wing figure that has openly stated this?
There was a book that came out in the early 2000s called "The Emerging Democratic Majority" which argued, essentially, that demographics = destiny and that changing Americas demographics would ensure that Democrats would solidly win most elections in the future. The book was extremely well received and widely read. I don't know if Democrats thought about race and immigration in this way before the book or not because I was far too young to be paying attention, but it seems to be the genesis of the current positions on immigration by party. Do you think they would be so fervently pro-immigration (legal and illegal) if immigrants voted 70%+ GOP
The emerging democratic majority is probably bunk FWIW. The politics of the country will change a lot but it's a lot more likely that hispanics and working class whites will form a coalition that freezes out upper class liberal and business conservative whites and black people imo. I don't think most people see it this way yet though
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I would honestly be interested in hearing from a sincere progressive about what they think of San Francisco. To me it’s an obvious example of progressivism gone way too far and an example of why you need conservatives to have at least a small bit of power to provide a check on things. I wonder what the right wing equivalent to San Francisco would be like. It’s also a truly bizarre place because the economy is such a powerhouse that people are willing to put up with a lot. Last time I was there there were homeless encampments right next to 3/4 million dollar houses
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@badger
I think humans are very attracted to doomsday ideas, we've just got it in our bones. So maybe things never turn out as badly as we imagine, but.
Yeah I think that’s what is fascinating about it to me. Everything I’ve talked about has very serious consequences if it continues like it has been…but the one thing we can be sure of is that it probably won’t, or at least there will be an unexpected curveball
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I’ve been doing even more research into this, and we are really going to see some interesting (and probably depressing) stuff happening very soon. Like next 10-20 years. Look at a place like Italy which has had a below replacement TFR for almost fifty years now. Population 60 million. Number of women of childbearing age (15-35) a little over six million. Girls age 0-14 around 4.5. Do the math. Even if there is some sort of baby boom, which there likely won’t be, the population is going to completely collapse in a way we have never seen before. Certainly nothing we’ve seen without huge invasions, famines, or plagues These women aren’t gonna have 7+ kids each
Boys have the same numbers of course. So the number of fighting aged males is small and dropping like a rock. Now the wealth of a country like Italy MIGHT save it. But there are countries like Thailand who are well into this fertility transition and probably won’t get rich in time. Hard to imagine that we aren’t going to see entire countries and peoples swept into the dustbin of history in our lifetimes
Am I just autistic or is this stuff extremely fascinating?
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The reason I’m so fervently and dramatically opposed to illegal (and legal but especially illegal) immigration is because it’s proponents are extremely open about what the goal is. The goal is to import more people so that people with my ethnic background are outnumbered, with the purpose of ensuring that the politics I support will be crushed. Supporting these migrants is to be financed by people of my economic station, and the migration will take place even in complete defiance of my countries laws.
It is quite literally demographic warfare against me. The evidence has to be overwhelming that they are wrong and their plans will backfire for me not to oppose this with absolutely everything I have.
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But the increase amounts to a difference of one quarter of one percent of our population, and matches the same number of illegal crossings we were seeing 20 years ago when none of this was even considered a political priority.
I missed this part. You and your party can pretend that having far more illegal immigration than legal immigration is acceptable and represents anything other than a fucking slap in the face of the body politic if you’d like. But that’s a good way to lose 60+ house seats and 5+ senate seats as well as turn certain constituencies against you for a generation. Illegal immigration was a HUGE issue in the 2000s. You’re older than me so I’m sure you remember
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Yes, 77% increase from what was previously the worst year on record. More importantly it represents a huge increase from record lows that were more recent
Also these numbers represent nothing but encounters and so obscure a huge and important difference. Under Trump, everyone that could legally be expelled was expelled and Trump implemented policies to allow more immediate expulsions. Consequently attempts to cross the border dropped. Under Biden most of these people are being LET IN
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@Double_R
According to your source we saw a 77% increase in encounters from 2019 to 2021. That’s not nothing, and it’s certainly not something for the administration to ignore. But the increase amounts to a difference of one quarter of one percent of our population, and matches the same number of illegal crossings we were seeing 20 years ago when none of this was even considered a political priority. So to say as you have, that Trump solved the immigration problem but now under Biden we don’t have a border any more is just absurd.
Yes, 77% increase from what was previously the worst year on record. More importantly it represents a huge increase from record lows that were more recent
As far as my statement goes I don’t care if you think it’s over the top because I didn’t make it to convince anyone, but rather to explain why I’m voting Republican literally no matter what. I believe that the democrats fundamentally don’t believe in having a border, and believe that changing the demographics of this country by hook or by crook will give them a permanent majority. Their behavior and rhetoric more than indicates that. Having a border is something extremely important to me
The OP hasn’t been answered, because correlation is not causation. You have done nothing to show that the policy changes you point to account for any significant portion of the increase, and ignore the fact that while our sudden increase in illegal immigration is unprecedented so are the circumstances surrounding it. When was the last time the world economy was shut down by a pandemic? When was the last time that economic conditions in South America were this bad while the US faces a labor shortage? All Biden can do is deal with the influx of crossers, he has little to do with the conditions driving them here in the first place, if you actually care about keeping these numbers down that is where you should be focused.
“Correlation =/= causation” is a pretty weak argument though. Imagine if you argued that the number of uninsured Americans has gone down 41% since passing the affordable care act, that you think this is because the act provided subsidized healthcare to people who otherwise couldn’t afford it, increased the age at which parents could keep their kids on their health insurance, expanded Medicare, and helped people with pre existing conditions. And in response to that I just said well, correlation doesn’t equal causation.
I’ve given you like ten policy changes that Biden made that caused the change. Yes, the incentive to hop the border was always going to be higher at this time than it was in 2020. But we have tools for dealing with this that Biden has actively eschewed. Addressing the root causes of why people feel the need to migrate is important for a long term solution but it does absolutely nothing to fix the here and now.
And to that point, you continually blame the crisis on the perception that the US border is wide open without addressing where the majority of that perception comes from. Hint: you won’t hear the words “open borders” uttered very much on MSNBC.All of this has been pointed out to you repeatedly.
I don’t remember making that point but this is a very old thread. But if you’re suggesting that illegal immigrants are all watching Fox News and that has more to do with why they’re coming over than policy changes I think that’s laughable
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@bmdrocks21
Thanks! Did they give any numbers about what the TFRs of Catholics or Protestants were?
As an aside the church is right about the pill if you think promiscuity is bad, which I do. Decoupling the sex act from any (realistic) chance of pregnancy has certainly changed how people behave. And also I know it’s been with us for a long time but I’m still not convinced that just shutting down such an important function in a woman’s body for years on end has no side effect
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@bmdrocks21
I'm a little confused by what you mean by this, but I think you're referring to the soon-to-be increased importance of environmental effects (how you raise your kids) on life outcomes. If so, I think that IQ as a relatively-important measure could be true, but overall genetic quality will reduce what people are capable of. Plumbers will be worse, worse accountants, worse electricians. An overall worse-off society.
What I mean is that so many kids today are beyond f'd. Raised on a diet of totally processed foods, handed iPads to shut them up where they surf YouTube to their hearts content before they can talk, doughy and androgynous, now there are kids whose freak parents have destroyed multiple precious years of childhood due to the pandemic... accounting for all this, once you factor in avoiding pathologies that have always existed (such as low IQ) a clean cut, not socially retarded kid with actual hobbies/interests and skills who is reasonably intelligent and not physically repulsive clocks in pretty highly these days.
If there is, that's the reason their civilization died out. This seems like an entirely manufactured issue for people to all of a sudden choose to have no kids and say they hate kids. That is occurring even without considering the rapid change of living expenses. Single-income households with children living in a house used to be possible with a factory job, but now it is barely possible for one working parent with a college degree to live in an apartment with any kids. But even if it were possible to have kids financially, I'm still at a loss that people don't even have it as a goal. Their current goal is no children, retire early.
Yeah I agree about the housing prices thing...but at the same time for almost all of us our ancestors were ridiculously poor by our standards and they still had kids. I guess like we've been saying, it wasn't necessarily considered a choice back then, it just kind of happened. And yet even today there are poor people having kids--in fact they might have more kids. I think it has to do more with life experience and upbringing...as in, your RELATIVE level of wealth. If you come from a super poor community, holding down an apartment by yourself is actually a pretty impressive accomplishment and a step forward. If you grew up in your parents 4 bed 2.5 bath house thats now $750,000 an apartment seems like a huge downgrade. That's just my pet theory, though.
There are places where that kind of lifestyle is still possible, the midwest and the south are littered with medium sized towns and cities where there are jobs that are full of houses whose prices still start with $1xx,xxx. It does seem like birthrates have fallen less in places like that, but unfortunately this sort of thing is hard to find because nobody pays attention to this stuff
I also think that sort of thing reflects a deep insecurity. When I've gotten people to open up, a lot just don't feel ready or worthy to raise a kid.
My thoughts exactly. The biggest way to change the future is through your kids. You have a lot of influence on their beliefs depending on your relationship with them, so you'll be leaving the earth worse off by your own measure. There is so much you can do to lower carbon emissions like having a garden, biking as much as possible to go places, etc. Saying "I'll just not have a kid" while eating specialty foods that need to be shipped a thousand miles is just a lazy copout attempt to show you "care" while expending no effort.
Yeah. I'm not a determinist and believe that conscious beings/souls do have some exercise of control over their lives and choices, but soooo much of who and what you are is just inborn and comes from your genes. I posted earlier in the thread about my wifes grandfather who had ten kids...in a sense, he made another five of himself, and then another ten+ of himself again with all the grandkids. He's dead but in a way he has a much greater say in how things will be than some currently living people. You can't control what people do but through a combination of raising your kids and the genetics you pass on you can have a you-sized impact on events even after you've passed on.
I guess that sounds kinda arrogant lol. But doesn't make it any less true. I think libs make a huge mistake in ignoring this sort of thing
I did go to a Catholic high school, and I'm starting to see a handful of marriages. Almost all of them are the still strongly-Catholic kids that want a lot of kids from what I understand. The kids that left religion (excluding me for the time being :/ ) seem to be entirely or almost entirely unmarried. Even though these kids went to the same high school and the same 3 or 4 grade schools, they are ending up in much different places. They weren't the liberal-types of "Catholic" schools either, so it seems that both the school and the parents both need to promote religious lifestyles to even have a hope of them keeping it.It would make sense, only one of my parents was technically religious but didn't take it seriously (didn't even go to Sunday Mass).
I've thought about Catholic School, but I'm also worried that it would be shoving religion down their throat too much and they might rebel, or be unpleasantly surprised at how much we have sheltered them from. I've been told that the fathers religiosity is the single most important factor, but I don't know. It's definitely important to me that they remain within the church
Religiosity has correlated with fertility for a long time but it certainly seems to be drastically increasing with our generation. I'm significantly older than you, though (I think like 4 years?) which at our age is a pretty significant age gap. Four years ago I was nowhere near where I am now. I wouldn't write off your peers just yet, but when they're pushing 30 or over that mark with no signs of settling down their genetics are probably going the way of the dodo.
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@RationalMadman
@Greyparrot
In the spirit of Christmas I am demanding that the two of you end your feud
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@bmdrocks21
Yes, I do think that the introduction of mass-legalized abortion and the sexual revolution soon following the wide availability of birth control also did a lot to cognitively disassociate sex from having children.As for the gene pool, I think the future looks rather grim. Lower-IQ people have less foresight/planning ability and have more kids, while those wealthier, higher-IQ people choose to have less on average. Considering that 40-60% of intelligence is inherited, we are going to go through a stage of serious dysgenics that will take many generations to recover from.
Yeah, on the other hand given this and how most kids have a nuclear bomb dropped on their brains from age 6 months when they are handed an iPad if your kids have a triple digit IQ and would fit in socially and physically in the 90s or earlier they're basically super heroes
Certainly more is necessary- a cultural shift. Maybe a return to religiosity in which parenthood is greatly encouraged would do the trick, but it would have to be a religion that forbids contraceptives like Catholicism and more traditional sects of other religions (hence why Orthodox Jews have a ton of kids as you noted- while not entirely banned, they are quite restrictive over contraceptives)
As an aside, Catholics in the US did have a much higher fertility rate than the WASPs prior to Vatican II. I have been trying to find the exact numbers (there actually ARE studies but they are all paywalled) but by the 1960s 35% of the babies born in the US were baptized as Catholics. The founding stock of the country was 1% Catholic! Pretty crazy, right? The "great replacement" already happened once, with the Ellis Island immigrants.
But yeah we will see if these religions will hold onto the children born into them...but man the secular, urban lifestyle really is a fertility shredder. I keep saying it because I don't think I can put into words how weird it is to me. Is there a historical precedent to so many people just voluntarily ending their lines?
This modernist, atheist attitude of living life to the fullest while young and no life after death really has no room in it to waste your finite time and money on raising children.Certainly it's probable that high living expenses prevent some liberals from having kids, but considering that even those at the higher percentiles of income in the US still don't tend to have as many kids as the poorer ones, I think that again is only one piece of the puzzle.
Yeah, but what I don't get is what they expect their lives to be like when theyre in their 50s or whatever. Being a single adult I dont think would be that depressing if you are close with the rest of your family and they are having kids, but there are entire families where the none of the kids are reproducing, or there are like four kids and one grandkid lol. Just seems so depressing to think about getting together with your aging siblings out of a sense of obligation to celebrate another Christmas that has long since lost its magic... Is it really worth it to "travel"? Or whatever it is people think they want
Not sure how representative this is, but as an anecdote, one of my professors had told us about how his daughter had once wanted to have 3 or 4 kids. His daughter and her husband I believe he said were both doctors (very able to afford kids), but now she doesn't want any because she is worried about climate change. It's insane how all of this fearmongering turned someone who would have been likely a great parent into one adamantly opposed to having children.
Depressing. I have heard whispers of that sort of thing but it's always hard to tell whats reality or not. Yes don't have kids because you're concerned about the environment, I'm sure leaving the future to those who don't share that concern will help...
However, I am not seeing that progression towards wanting to have kids (or even in some cases, to get married) among many of my peers. Even if it does happen, it'll likely be too late to have any.
Yeah this is what really weirds me out, man. I went to a college that notoriously attracts the last bastions of conservative, white, religious youth in Texas so I do know a lot of married people or parents from college. But none of my friends from HS are even married. actually I dont think any are even engaged. I have a friend from middle school who is engaged but I would be shocked if they have kids since they are hardcore secular urban libs
My older sisters social circle is mostly urban lib and they all have kids or are starting to though so maybe it really does happen rapidly once you see that big 30 approaching
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Honestly Biden owned that guy. Either it just rolled over him like water off a ducks back (chad) or he simply has no idea what he was even saying (also chad.) People need to acknowledge that even though he’s well past his sell by date Biden is a very talented retail politician!
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It really is weird though how many people I know are clearly selecting themselves out of the gene pool. I know it’s pretty dehumanizing to think of yourself in Darwinistic terms but damn you’re the endpoint of literally billions of years of organisms reproducing, it must take a lot to overpower that inherent urge. I’ve always wanted children so don’t understand. I guess the real urge is to have sex and until recently that just resulted in children
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@bmdrocks21
>The Middle East and Africa have entered the chatMore of a problem for Europe than us, but that could change quickly based on how easy transport from one country to another has become
Yeah I should’ve added a caveat that it’s still true in sub Saharan Africa, just not Latin America anymore. I think birth rates in SSA will decline and agricultural yields will rise though…but Europe is one famine away from having a gigantic migrant crisis on their hands
Good post, though! It’s very curious that we don’t know why birthrates have declined. Obviously contraception has played a major role, probably the entrance of women into the workplace as well. That mixed with the fact that a frightening amount of people my age say that they hate kids and never want them adds attitudes about parenthood to the mix.
Yeah I think contraceptives also just changed the way that people view having children. There were always ways to prevent having kids but they were more primitive and prone to failure etc, now it’s just 100% a choice. In the past people who wanted lots of kids would have more than people who didn’t but the amount of people opting out now or just failing to get with someone in time is extremely large…I wonder what impact it will have on the gene pool long term
Hungary has seen some increases to its birthrate and marriage rate since the passage of their generous social benefits for those that have kids. It doesn’t seem substantial enough, but I hope they can be an example for us
I would say the impact was substantial. They went from 1.2 (almost apocalyptic tier) to hovering around 1.5 which is far from ideal but a society can get by on that.
I think it has a lot to do with the type of lifestyle you can afford, relative to expectations. For people in places like California or Massachusetts who grew up in their parents 4 bed 2.5 bath house that they bought in 1985 who can now barely make rent on an apartment I imagine it’s really tough to want to have a kid in that circumstance. Since liberals tend to live in expensive metro/coastal areas I wonder if that alone explains the birth rate differences rather than any personal choices
I’ve also read, but can’t find proof right now, that the kinds of subsidies in many European countries make educated/high IQ people more likely to have kids. If true that’s obviously a good thing
Merry Christmas btw. May yours be better than mine (I have covid!)
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@cristo71
Your guess is as good as mine. My guess would be social media but I have no clue
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The current issue can’t be fixed without congress changing the asylum laws, but Trumps policies did fix the problem.
*can’t be fixed PERMANENTLY
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