Invincible Mafia Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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AustinL0926
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@Vader
Tbh I'm being defensive because I have nothing to lose (it's a more fun role than I thought).

Best-case scenario: I convince town to stop being sheeple and avoid a mislynch.

Worst-case scenario: I get lynched, my defensiveness doesn't really matter because I'm basically cleared next DP.
AustinL0926
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Anyway I'll take a break from this thread now. I'll check in before it ends to hammer myself if necessary.
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@AustinL0926
Bye
Vader
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MY POE going into the end of DP1. Please note this could change once we get info DP2. This is order on who I most townread to scum read the most

Pie
Whiteflame
Savant
Austin / BK on the same field at the moment

Savant is the only one I haven't had deep analysis on but fmpov he just moves into the FoS because of whiteflame to me being more town read IMO. I also think him being on a lot of the wagons is a bit suspicious. When I first played mafia and was mafia back on DDO, I used to hop on every wagon known to man to try and get a vote. But at the same time he's not at the top of the scum list because I think his analysis and taking some analysis from other games, like Town of Salem, etc, make me feel he's new trying to use his analysis he knew about other games into forum mafia


whiteflame
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@Vader
I think the best bet is to lynch Austin and confirm his role. This to me would put Pie back in the POE for sure. Right now from a character perspective and what info we do have, I think mechanically it would be difficult to put Pie in my POE right now. I think DP2 depending on Austin's turn he's back in for behavior. 

I'm personally just at a roadblock between Pie. Maybe I am overthinking (which is likely), but the fact that off of a role hint alone with only 1 claimed character, he had the balls to claim Mark, I mean, damn. That's the only barrier from preventing me from going at Pie. It's just a big claim with no CC to it while being the first member (besides GP) to do so, makes it so hard for me to read him as scum. Not to mention I think Pie as scum tends to play it a bit more safe with claims. 

I do wonder, is there a Luna game where he was scum? I think looking back at that could be helpful
I see your point. I also have a hard time believing that Pie would be that ballsy with his claim. I have the same reservations about BK - it's not like Atom Eve is a particularly safe claim with several people left in the game who haven't character claimed.

Honestly, the more we keep going back and forth on this, the more resigned I feel to the Austin lynch. I still can't say I buy that he's scum, but PoE alone puts him in a bad position, and he might just be more helpful to us after he's confirmed town and we run through a NP.
whiteflame
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@Vader
Savant is the only one I haven't had deep analysis on but fmpov he just moves into the FoS because of whiteflame to me being more town read IMO. I also think him being on a lot of the wagons is a bit suspicious. When I first played mafia and was mafia back on DDO, I used to hop on every wagon known to man to try and get a vote. But at the same time he's not at the top of the scum list because I think his analysis and taking some analysis from other games, like Town of Salem, etc, make me feel he's new trying to use his analysis he knew about other games into forum mafia
Savant is someone I'd consider heavily after he does whatever he claims he can do to confirm his affiliation.
Lunatic
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2 hours remain
Vader
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@whiteflame
I think the best bet is to lynch Austin and confirm his role. This to me would put Pie back in the POE for sure. Right now from a character perspective and what info we do have, I think mechanically it would be difficult to put Pie in my POE right now. I think DP2 depending on Austin's turn he's back in for behavior. 

I'm personally just at a roadblock between Pie. Maybe I am overthinking (which is likely), but the fact that off of a role hint alone with only 1 claimed character, he had the balls to claim Mark, I mean, damn. That's the only barrier from preventing me from going at Pie. It's just a big claim with no CC to it while being the first member (besides GP) to do so, makes it so hard for me to read him as scum. Not to mention I think Pie as scum tends to play it a bit more safe with claims. 

I do wonder, is there a Luna game where he was scum? I think looking back at that could be helpful
I see your point. I also have a hard time believing that Pie would be that ballsy with his claim. I have the same reservations about BK - it's not like Atom Eve is a particularly safe claim with several people left in the game who haven't character claimed.
That's why I lean toward Austin more than BK. Hence why I didn't pull trigger on BK
Honestly, the more we keep going back and forth on this, the more resigned I feel to the Austin lynch. I still can't say I buy that he's scum, but PoE alone puts him in a bad position, and he might just be more helpful to us after he's confirmed town and we run through a NP.
Yep I think so. Idk how much time but after dinner and such I'm gonna think it over
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Austin- 4/5- iLikePie5, savant, Best.korea, joebob
iLikePie5- 1/5-  Austin
Vader- 1/5- GP

1.5 hours remaining

AustinL0926
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@Vader
@whiteflame
@Savant
@JoeBob
Honestly, the more we keep going back and forth on this, the more resigned I feel to the Austin lynch. I still can't say I buy that he's scum, but PoE alone puts him in a bad position, and he might just be more helpful to us after he's confirmed town and we run through a NP. [WHITEFLAME]
I think that's the best way to describe how town feels right now: "resigned". If any of you genuinely believe I will flip scum, then just say it right now. I'm disappointed with this wagon because no one really believes in it but no one really cares enough to change things. Town is content to lynch me and "do something useful" because it's the path of least resistance and, well, who really cares anyway?

There's a phenomenon in psychology called "the temporal pattern of regret", where new actions that lead to negative consequences tend to be viewed with more regret than inaction that leads to negative consequences. When town gets to MYLO because oopsies-doopsies, we mislynched a townie on DP1, y'all will be kicking yourselves. I'm not annoyed that I'm being mislynched (hey, first time for everyone), but I'm annoyed that town isn't seriously considering other options. If I saw an impending mislynch on another townie, I wouldn't let them get dragged off kicking and screaming into the night. But maybe that's just me.

End of rant. I'll hammer in exactly an hour.

ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
@Barney
@Vader
@whiteflame
Can we please hammer. He’s basically given up
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@AustinL0926
There's a phenomenon in psychology called "the temporal pattern of regret", where new actions that lead to negative consequences tend to be viewed with more regret than inaction that leads to negative consequences. When town gets to MYLO because oopsies-doopsies, we mislynched a townie on DP1, y'all will be kicking yourselves
Its nice that you care for our feelings, but personally, I wont feel regret even if you turn scum, as my ability to feel regret is rather small.

Barney
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I’m convinced Austin is town at this point. Scum have a bigger duty to each other to not be lynched. And lynching him today gains less than it costs us.

As much as I know this won’t go anywhere,

VNTL
JoeBob
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Nothing else to say. Austin your points make no sense. We either get a scum out, or an innocent who is confirmed, and can help us for 72 hours.
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Austin- 4/5- iLikePie5, savant, Best.korea, joebob
iLikePie5- 1/5-  Austin
Vader- 1/5- GP
VTNL- 1/5- barney

45 minutes remaining.


ILikePie5
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@Barney
I’m convinced Austin is town at this point. Scum have a bigger duty to each other to not be lynched. And lynching him today gains less than it costs us.
Why do you think he’s town?

As much as I know this won’t go anywhere,

VNTL
VTNL is not an option for town. We lose our primarily ability. Narrow the pool to our choosing. Austin is definitely scum just based on his actions this game.
Barney
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@ILikePie5
His behavior. In include preferring his own head on the chopping block to mine.

We’re in DP1 so what actions has he done which make you think he’s “definitely scum”? 
ILikePie5
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@Barney
His behavior. In include preferring his own head on the chopping block to mine.
What about his behavior? He’s been inconsistent. Blames my “behavior.” He’s at the point where he thinks I’m scum because I’m ballsy, which I’m not. You’re not getting lynched today anyways especially with the time left, so it doesn’t mean much that he doesn’t want to lynch you over himself.

We’re in DP1 so what actions has he done which make you think he’s “definitely scum”? 
Cherry-picking evidence. Phishing for roles. Being hypocritical about the wagoning. 
Lunatic
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30 minutes.
Greyparrot
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@ILikePie5
Just get your scumbuddy to hammer, 

VTNL
ILikePie5
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The fact that this wagon hasn’t been hammered yet makes it so obvious that Austin is scum. It’s been 3/4 votes for at least a day now.
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
Just get your scumbuddy to hammer, 

VTNL
You’re my scum buddy though
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@AustinL0926
but I'm annoyed that town isn't seriously considering other options.
Me too.
Vader
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There is 30 min left in the DP and I am going on a call in a bit to finish my project

There's 2 things here.

1) Austin is telling the truth and he is a Bleeder. Cool. We get his insight DP2 and we have more insight
2) Austin is lying and he's scum. 

There is no reason to not lynch Austin at this point in the game. I think he's been very aggressive as a whole and defensive. Yes I get what he says, but he shouldn't be getting this defensive as a Bleeder when he literally has a whole 'nother DP too. I think he's being very jumpy on reads until he was called out by it from certain town members and that's when he doubled down on Pie. He was sus of Savant, BK, and Pie. He was the pioneer of a mass lynch train yet complained when it happened to him. I think his over defensiveness for a role he will still likely be alive for is pretty fishy and deserves a lynch. The worst that comes out is for some reason he lies about Bleeder and he's like some investigative role. The 2 possible conclusions are 1, he's town confirmed and we have 2 town confirmed people giving opinions, narrowing the pool down, or 2) he's scum and lied and we get scum. What's their to lose? VTNL'ing? Stupid as fuck right now. We can't vtnl. We need every form of information we can get from the DP. No lynching does nothing. My behavior analysis has been scummy on Austin.

I was fine with either him or BK. I read enough of Austin's post that we don't lose too much lynching him

VTL Austin

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@ILikePie5
Go convince Vader to hammer.
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@ILikePie5
Nevermind, you got your buddy to do it.

Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Austin- 5/5- iLikePie5, savant, Best.korea, joebob, vader
iLikePie5- 1/5-  Austin
Vader- 1/5- GP
VTNL- 1/5- barney

The day phase has ended in a no lynch! You have 48 hours to submit night actions!
Lunatic
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This thread is closed.
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
Well played. Hope you 2 guys win.