Gunplay Mafia DP3

Author: Mharman

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Casey_Risk
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I just got out of work. I still prefer a Vader lynch for reasons I've already elaborated on, and given how we don't have much time left in the DP, that's where I'm going to place my vote. If I have to switch to Wylted just to get a lynch today, that's what I'll do. 

VTL Vader 
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Yeah I don't mind being lynched for the most part. Since I think it's likely going to swing that way I'm going to give my few thoughts for town to read up on before my town flip

1. Obviously we have to look at everything from a blank slate when we get to LYLO. It will be a 2v1 and everyone is going to be at risk. There should be no quit voting or anything like that in this game because it inherently is scummy. We need to draw out the final DP as long as possible. Anyone quick voting should likely be scum. There is not a definitive answer. On my opinions on  who I think is scum. 

The obvious choice is Wylted for obvious reasons. For one, his vanilla claim is the only one that was unconfirmable to any extent besides a motion detector and even then, he could easily have a ninja and with no ninja to confirm,  it gives town no room to do anything. I think he is likely scum but I want to consider a few options in this game. 

If I'm choosing a second read, I'm thinking Luna. My problem with Luna is that he knows with him claim and the town reads, he is likely to draw at least 1/2 mislynches. He can afford to not hammer one read and draw town cred for his adament defense on Austin. Even at that point, I don't find it believable, almost manufactured. He hard read Austin as town but when Casey goes after GP just as hard he considers her more likely scum than Austin. Then he pushes for my lynch this DP because I stuck with my opinion (which I am not going even get into). Just feels like there is something off about his claim. I also don't know why you wouldn't claim that you were a bookie last DP and say you're gunning so hard was because you had the bookie shot. if there's a 2x kill you essentially confirm yourself and confirm wylted as well. If he stated this, tbh I would've been moved to lynch Wylted. I think if Luna is alive, he would be my option I would take

Casey should obviously be looked at but honestly, I find it really really hard to see Casey as scum. I sound like a broken record but Casey plays mafia safe. She doesn't like taking big gambit plays and doing crazy stuff as scum. Her reaction to insta bussing DP1 to me just isn't meta of Casey. I also think her actions make sense for her as scum. The only reason she targets Wylted is to see if he's lying or telling the truth and to test that claim. I think there is a reason for Casey to do this though, as they can force 2 mislynches now if they follow the hard 1 of 1 system. But again, Casey does not have Wylted in the scum pile. I think if I were scum the easiest read would be to the POE of myself and Wylted but she town reads Wylted, putting herself at a disadvantage. I really just find it hard to see her doing and committing to that. 

Whiteflame is probably town because of his role balancing out the car thief and what I perceive from his behavior. I think if he's scum he can fuck us all but he's been solidly consistent with his reads, been analyzing deep behavior analytics, much more engaged with town and dissecting, and isn't lazily hopping on lynches. I think his role also town locks him in this game too

Honestly when I type this out I have a stronger feeling that Luna could be scum. When I look at that play, I think even if the 1x didn't work as it seemed, it still doesn't make sense why they didn't disclose that in DP2 when they were fighting tooth and nail. I also think "why didn't he disclose this earlier?"His justification also just seemed scummy asf too. Why would you want to use the vig shot in DP3 rather than in DP2. Something doesn't add up


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It's such an unusual situation for me to be this skittish about every lynch for such different reasons. This is usually the point where I'm balancing scumreads, but everyone has something that just makes them less likely to be scum, which is what's making all of this so difficult.

I still don't like WyIted's Vanilla claim, but every time I keep looking back at his early posts, his quick sus on GP, and consider the result from Casey, it just gets harder and harder to scumread him. It's also notable, though, that out of the remaining players, WyIted is the only one whose role and participation in previous DPs makes him an island. Unlike Casey, he doesn't have a result on another living player, and unlike Luna, he didn't hard defend a claimed JK who flipped town. Almost all of the read on WyIted is behavioral with the exception of Casey's result, so it's the weakest townread for me still.

I don't like Luna's claim either, but it's also just a weird choice if he's scum. I just played a full game with him as scum and I don't really buy that this would be Luna's play. Claiming 1X at all was bound to make him stand out for no apparent reason. And yes, then there is his support of Austin. I would have to buy that he was pushing back hard on the lynch while fully under the belief that Austin would be lynched, since I really can't fathom him going to bat this hard for a claimed JK as scum, and the strategy he was pushing was actively to his detriment if Luna was scum. Even if Austin hadn't RB'd him, Luna would have secured himself as a future lynch and Austin's role would still have reduced POE. It's a very risky gambit for someone who was pretty successfully arguing the benefits of leaving Austin alive.

And yes, there's Casey. We'd need to believe in a very early bus and Casey actively using their fake role to make WyIted look better. The latter I could kind of understand on the basis that Casey wouldn't want to be sussed by WyIted's flip, but why bother targeting WyIted at all then? Why not target Luna and claim he didn't move? The sus was always clearly going to be on WyIted and Vader this DP, so WyIted probably would have been the default lynch without Casey's result. 

So, yes, I'm still leaning WyIted after Vader the longer I think about this and I still don't like it. I don't like this lynch, but I'm doing it anyway because I still think it's our best choice. Hopefully some combination of the reads everyone's given and some DP4 discussion will puzzle this out, but for now, this is all I can do:

VTL Vader

Mharman
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Vote Count
Vader (2/3) - Casey, Whiteflame
Wylted (1/3) - Wylted
Mharman
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~19.5 hours left 
WyIted
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@Mharman
Unvote VtL vader
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Why did I quick hammer? You guys are probe to changing your mind and I know I am town
Mharman
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@Vader
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Vote Count
Vader (3/3) - Casey, Whiteflame, Wylted

Vader was lynched! He was innocent.

Submit your night actions… the NP ends at 9pm est Tuesday (a little less than 24 hours but it should be fine)

Stop posting- the DP is over. Go ahead and lock the thread mods