I decided to give my energy to philly instead since I have to deal with these people. You're welcome
Gunplay Mafia DP3
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Okay well somebody has to start and it looks like this DP we are lynching me or supa. I would say if the lynch is me than I am pretty confident that supa is scum, but I wouldn't rush to a judgement. Just take your time to figure things out next DP just because we are supposed to lose if me and Vader are both town, it doesn't mean we have to.
VTL Vader
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@WyIted
Austins pitch was to confirm a member of town. Which makes sense because his blocking only works on town members.If he could block than scum answer is literally to just defer the NK and deny information to town
He would have told us his roleblocked failed which is as good as a confirmation of scum once he flipped anyway since he’d die today anyway
If Casey is scum then is screwed, because I don’t think anyone wants to face the reality of Casey bussing dp1 and playing the long con. But I will say Casey’s interest and activity seemed to have dropped off hard after his participation in GPs lynching.
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@Lunatic
If Casey is scum then is screwed, because I don’t think anyone wants to face the reality of Casey bussing dp1 and playing the long con. But I will say Casey’s interest and activity seemed to have dropped off hard after his participation in GPs lynching.
Yeah, I keep revisiting my reads and wondering if I'm missing something with Casey, though given how thoroughly they've been townread, Casey could easily have gotten away with directing a mislynch on whoever they wanted with that role claim. Claiming no movement from WyIted is just such an odd way to play this if the Motion Detector is a fake claim, and couple that with what would have to be the ballsiest hard early bus on their scum partner... it's just so hard to believe. If Casey is scum, they've taken all the risks and it's paid off beautifully.
Honestly, I'm at the coin flip stage between WyIted and Vader. They both work and don't work as scum for different reasons and that bothers me, but there's not a lot I can do about it.
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@whiteflame
I’m agree with the stuff about Casey and it being a wierd play for him to clear Wylted if scum. I’m also torn between Vader and Wylted. As much as I don’t want to buy into the wifom of both of them being willing to self sacrifice, I find myself going back to Supra’s role making sense as a balance mechanism with a motion detector and a watcher and finding it hard to buy that he would do an early claim play with GP. As for Wylted I’m with you that I think a ninja is extremely likely so him not moving doesn’t surprise me if he’s scum. And behaviorally the more I think about his Austin push the more I think he would have done it as town or scum. So I’m back to leaning towards Wylted. If Casey is scum I think it’s a GG.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
I am going to suggest to vote for me. My flip will verify a lot of the balance related issues we will see when my Gravedigger gets flipped. We will have a good idea and then we can lynch Wylted in DP4. I just don't buy that Casey buses scum buddy DP1 from my experience playing with them. WF role and behavior analysis makes me find it hard to believe.
If it's Luna, then we are fucked and might as well just hand scum their win.
If it's Luna, then we are fucked and might as well just hand scum their win.
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@Vader
@whiteflame
@WyIted
Which of you in a lylo situation would be willing to actually consider casey as an option? Because if casey is alive tomorrow, and one of me or whiteflame dies, it's extremely likely casey is the last scum, and if we go in with the mindset that casey is still confirmed, and the final scum is between the other of whoever we lynch between wylted and vader this dp, there is a good chance we lose this game. I think we need to take people into lylo that are at least willing to consider all options, so if you aren't, maybe you are the best lynch today for that reason alone. I don't want to hand mafia an easy win over the fact that a long con gambit worked in their favor. As of right now, mafia would have incentive to kill either me or whiteflame heading into lylo, knowing the opposite of vader / wylted get lynched assuming the game doesn't end today. If casey is alive we need to be fully willing to reset reads and consider him as well.
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@Lunatic
Tbh it would be hard considering how Casey played as scum when i was with them but I feel like I would have no choice but to reset my reads and think more critically. Granted if I'm alive at the next DP I am likely going to be the person in the 1v1 scenario so have to put that in mind. Can consider Casey all I want but if Wylted DOES flip town and I'm choosing between whoever is alive, I'm going to have to balance defending myself while also doing analytical thought.
It also comes down to who you are willing to trust more in the DP4. As I said to you last DP, I can say all these things about what I think but you have no inclination to believe me. This decision is yours but if I wasn't the lynch I would have to and would consider everyone in the last circle
Assuming we get to DP4 and assuming wylted is town
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@Vader
It also comes down to who you are willing to trust more in the DP4. As I said to you last DP, I can say all these things about what I think but you have no inclination to believe me. This decision is yours but if I wasn't the lynch I would have to and would consider everyone in the last circle
Wylted is just as viable to be scum here the only thing hes got going for him is the motion detector result, but that assumes casey isn't lying (if he decided to instead frame wylted he would have made it a 1 v 1 between him and wylted rather than you and wylted, so theres incentive for him to clear wylted with it), as it technically doesn't clear wylted based on the likelihood of a ninja. The rest is WIFOM about how hard he would have gone on austin last day phase. You guys are both as likely to be scum in my eyes, but im leaning more towards wylted mainly because I just think thats such a bold play for you and GP to come out with your roles immediately like that, and I feel like you would be more careful and calculated as scum then to do that.
And if wylted is town, I am going to be a little more sus of casey in Lylo.
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@Lunatic
Wylted is just as viable to be scum here the only thing hes got going for him is the motion detector result, but that assumes casey isn't lying (if he decided to instead frame wylted he would have made it a 1 v 1 between him and wylted rather than you and wylted, so theres incentive for him to clear wylted with it), as it technically doesn't clear wylted based on the likelihood of a ninja. The rest is WIFOM about how hard he would have gone on austin last day phase. You guys are both as likely to be scum in my eyes, but im leaning more towards wylted mainly because I just think thats such a bold play for you and GP to come out with your roles immediately like that, and I feel like you would be more careful and calculated as scum then to do that.
That's my thoughts as well. I will 100% be more sus of Casey. The only roadblock with Casey is that I was scum with in your game not long ago is that they are someone that does not like taking risks like this. Whenever we would decide actions, Casey would 100% advise on doing the safe action rather than doing a risky play. I also think it's Casey's thought process was to see Wylted in the action because they assumed no ninja was in the game. There is a lot of things here that make it very tough for me to scumread but obviously I would have to reread to DP because there are some things i don't like about Casey too. Another thing is if GP is your partner, you may have to use some different thought process. They were so adament on GP early on but hesistated on Austin's lynch. It just seems too perfect. Idk
I think if it comes down to a final 3 of you, Casey, and I, I would have more of a tilt to you. If it is a final 3 of WF, Casey, and I, I am more inclined to vote Casey. This is all if Wylted is lynched today and turns town
scum with them*
Ugh I find it hard to think that Casey not only hard bus's his partner in DP1, but targets a scum read players and gives him an alibi. Feel like if he was scum he'd target something else but even then, there isn't anyone to confirm him either.
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@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Glad I'm not the only one who is feeling very uncomfortable with the available choices. We have 4 players left in this game who are not scum, so I'd like to get everyone's thoughts on this. I'm roping WyIted into this to get more detailed thoughts from him.
Casey in particular, since you haven't been involved much in the discussion, I'd like to get your perspective assuming we lynch either WyIted or Vader and they flip town. Is it clearly an either/or situation for you? Where does Luna fit into your perspective at that point? I know it's a lot of "what if," but since one of us is pretty likely to die this DP (claimed investigator vs. basically town confirmed), I'd like to get as complete a set of thoughts as possible before proceeding. I'll give mine as well when I've fully worked them out.
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@Vader
Another thing is if GP is your partner, you may have to use some different thought process. They were so adament on GP early on but hesistated on Austin's lynch. It just seems too perfect. Idk
To be fair, a lot of my sus on GP was because of his role claim in conjunction with mine, which made it super likely from my perspective that he was just lying. As for Austin, I also didn't really believe that there was both a Doctor and a Jailkeeper in the game, but the fact that he may have been telling the truth made me hesitate since he was the only one left who could have stopped the NK, assuming his role claim was real (which it was).
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@whiteflame
Casey in particular, since you haven't been involved much in the discussion, I'd like to get your perspective assuming we lynch either WyIted or Vader and they flip town. Is it clearly an either/or situation for you? Where does Luna fit into your perspective at that point?
Honestly, I can't completely write out Luna as a suspect. Literally everyone left has given me some reason to townread them, which makes PoE very difficult. After seeing Luna's behavior over the last DP, though, it's hard for me to see him as scum. The way he responded to Austin's claim and ended up defending him just seemed very towny and genuine to me. You'd expect him to join Austin's wagon if he were scum. On the other hand, scum Luna would know that and could potentially defend Austin just for towncred, so there is a bit of WIFOM there I suppose.
As for Wylted, I've already explained my thought process on him. I guess on further reanalysis, I'd put Vader as being the most likely to be scum, and if it's not him, it's a tossup between Wylted and Luna.
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@Casey_Risk
Honestly, I can't completely write out Luna as a suspect. Literally everyone left has given me some reason to townread them, which makes PoE very difficult. After seeing Luna's behavior over the last DP, though, it's hard for me to see him as scum. The way he responded to Austin's claim and ended up defending him just seemed very towny and genuine to me. You'd expect him to join Austin's wagon if he were scum. On the other hand, scum Luna would know that and could potentially defend Austin just for towncred, so there is a bit of WIFOM there I suppose.As for Wylted, I've already explained my thought process on him. I guess on further reanalysis, I'd put Vader as being the most likely to be scum, and if it's not him, it's a tossup between Wylted and Luna.
Alright, appreciate the reasoning.
Vote Count
Vader (1/4) - Wylted
Vote Count
Vader (1/3) - Wylted
Corrected. Thx Savant
26 hours remaining
So now what
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@Lunatic
I hope everyone is willing to consider every option at LYLO. If I flip town or we go with Vader and he flips town we need to be willing to go with other options.
It will be tough to change from Vader but last DP you can see evidence of me considering other options deep into the Austin lynch.
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@whiteflame
I think lunatic is more likely to be scum than Casey but I am not commiting to anything if we go with Vader and he flips innocent.
I am also willing to consider lunatic this DP, but I almost feel like me and Vader both being options at LYLO would make the game harder for town so I think most likely this should be me and Vader one v one right now
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@Casey_Risk
The way he responded to Austin's claim and ended up defending him just seemed very towny and genuine to me. You'd expect him to join Austin's wagon if he were scum. On the other hand, scum Luna would know that and could potentially defend Austin just for towncred, so there is a bit of WIFOM there I suppose.
It almost feels like inside information to know Austin was town there tbh.
Also as scum I have defended scummy looking town hoping the lynch would not go through just because dragging them along means I can sacrifice them, if I am in the hot seat
Going to put some more thoughts once I get done with school work
Actually let's make this really easy. And I am shocked people haven't started placing votes yet
Unvote VTL Wylted
I think you should still lynch Vader next DP, but you actually should be considering everyone and resetting your reads and rereading at least some portions of DPs, with DP1 being the most valuable day
Vote Count
Wylted (1/3) - Wylted
~23 hrs left
I think we're agreed that the decision in the end is between Vader and WyIted, at least for this DP, and much as I have problems with both of these choices, I'm leaning towards Vader as the lynch. It's a decision I'm making because I can't shrug off my concerns that I'm giving Vader too much credit for his early claim and I remain somewhat skeptical of his behavior, whereas it's just easier to buy WyIted's, particularly with Casey's result. So that's likely where my vote will go before I head to bed tonight.
This is going to get hairier next DP, and I probably won't be a part of it, so I want to give my current thoughts on who I suspect will be the remaining 3 and hope that they do some good.