idk whiteflame it feels you have a personal investment in having luna stay alive why are you being resistant to my idea when it is logically sound, luna's elimination lets us know who mafia is
The Russian Mafia DP2
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Grigori Potemkin, Shield, because I can protect people from the ugly truth by building a Potemkin village around them.
Who did you Shield NP1 and why?
I will certainly be shielding lunatic. Doesn't cure him of suspicion but it's nearly certain that we will lynch someone on his list and if I die protecting Lunatic (and he is town) then:A.) That reveals I'm innocent, and since I'm on the list narrows the suspect list to two. Since we will likely lynch someone that narrows it to one. That means you only need to lynch one person next round to either get a scum or prove Lunatic lying scum.B.) Gives Lunatic a chance at another dream
There’s no point in you protecting Luna. He can’t dream again if you do because he doesn’t dream when someone visits him.
i get why luna staying alive has value but we're always better in position, even slightly, with luna's flip
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@Lunatic
So for me it’s between that2user and banana. Honestly a bit torn, I don't like the executioner claim and the fact that earth flipped innocent also doesn't look good for her claiming to be the first tsar, but I also don't see why she would lie about it.
She offered to use her role right then and there last DP. Behaviorally Banana is town imo. I have more of a problem with That2
I still have most of the same issues with That2users claim, especially the assassination thing, when her family was executed, but I'll cede that if she was going off of her memory of the disney movie she might have thought it was an assassination, though I think she should have deferred to her role pm in this situation.there is a chance both are scum, but idk. I'll wait to hear thoughts from others. I am split.
I believe you, Banana, and ADOL. I think That2 is scum for sure. The inconsistency is scummy, and I’m curious if her true character was executed ie Tsar Nicholas and she got tangled in faking everything. Very high risk though. I need to confirm one thing still
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@That2User
in what world does 100% knowing 1 player is wolf does not help town? the alternative is having faith in luna is the dreamer, hoping we're lucky in the 3 names.
I literally just laid out the scenario for you. Knowing that 1/3 players in his pool are scum would be helpful now when there are 9 players because it takes a small subset of them, sets it aside and gives us an opportunity to lynch in that pool to reduce it. We have a 33% chance of lynching scum instead of an 22% chance (which is what we'd get if we lynched randomly, assuming there are two scum in the game). Those numbers change when the total pool of players crunches to 7. Then, the odds of lynching scum at random then come up to 28%, not all that distant from the odds of lynching scum from the pool that Luna's role demarcates, and I think we can safely assume that, if Luna is town, scum will not eliminate one of the 3 people he dreamt about. So not only will we have not moved the needle statistically, but we'll have made random chance almost equally effective to just eliminating someone in Luna's dream pool by effectively doing nothing to reduce PoE.
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@ILikePie5
Grigori Potemkin, Shield, because I can protect people from the ugly truth by building a Potemkin village around them.Who did you Shield NP1 and why?
I will certainly be shielding lunatic. Doesn't cure him of suspicion but it's nearly certain that we will lynch someone on his list and if I die protecting Lunatic (and he is town) then:A.) That reveals I'm innocent, and since I'm on the list narrows the suspect list to two. Since we will likely lynch someone that narrows it to one. That means you only need to lynch one person next round to either get a scum or prove Lunatic lying scum.B.) Gives Lunatic a chance at another dreamThere’s no point in you protecting Luna. He can’t dream again if you do because he doesn’t dream when someone visits him.
I did not realize at the time that I announced that strategy that protecting Luna would block him.
If he isn't lynched I think town should all agree to not visit Luna (in most circumstances), this creates a chance for a new list to be created. If we have two lists that we can confirm then town victory chance is very high.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Reread your PM and tell us exactly what Shield does one more time.
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@That2User
idk whiteflame it feels you have a personal investment in having luna stay alive why are you being resistant to my idea when it is logically sound, luna's elimination lets us know who mafia is
...Except it doesn't. See the above. If you want to call this being personally invested in his survival, be my guest, but if we're lynching today, I'd prefer to do it with the aim of reducing PoE and not the hope that we can use Luna's results to reduce PoE. If you have good reason to sus Luna - hell, if anyone does, be my guest and explain why you're sussing him - then that might be reason enough to eliminate him. In the absence of that, I don't see much value in his flip if we do nothing to reduce PoE along with it.
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@ILikePie5
I’m not sure I believe ADOL. That2 is… interesting to say the least. I’m not gonna ignore the possibility of this being a gambit from Lunatic.
The only read I 100% agree with you is Banana being town.
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@That2User
mafia is never killing luna, luna is never dreaming again, we need to kill luna to see if mafia is in me/adol/banana.vtl luna
Lol that’s stupid
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@ILikePie5
It’s truly one of the plans of all time. The only thing stopping me from scumreading That2 is a potential TI read.
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@That2User
mafia only kills luna if they do not have have an rb, (it is safe to assume they do), materially nothing changes if we mislim outside of luna + mafia kills luna
Why should be assume RB?
the only way to be 100% certain in luna being the dreamer is by flipping him, if luna is mafia then he can perpetually claim he is roleblocked and we will never know unless we flip scum within me/liberty/banana (it's possible as scum luna throws in his partner to make his dreamer claim look real to win in elo.) eliminating luna is the optimal play.
No, it’s better to find the townies in the 3 people identified and lynch the scum.
Besides Banana, my other big town read is Vader for obvious reasons.
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@Mharman
I’m not sure I believe ADOL.
Agreed.
That2 is… interesting to say the least.
That2 is so scummy right now to me lol
I’m not gonna ignore the possibility of this being a gambit from Lunatic.
Also agreed
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@ILikePie5
Reread your PM and tell us exactly what Shield does one more time.
I pick a player (doesn't say town or mafia) to build a Potemkin village around. If somebody tries to use a lethal action in the night, I die instead.
There is nothing about who knows what. I assume that nobody is informed when they are protected and no lethal action is attempted. When/If I die protecting somebody, I assume that would be explained in the night action summary but I am not 100% certain.
The town can be moved to a different player twice in the game. Perhaps that means if I build the down the protection outlast my own life, like I could protect someone, get lynched or murdered, and they would still be protected?
I don't see how any of this helps establish trust though.
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@whiteflame
if Luna is town, scum will not eliminate one of the 3 people he dreamt about.
if Luna is town, if Luna is scum then it is world changing, we do not know Luna's alignment until we eliminate him
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@whiteflame
in what world does 100% knowing 1 player is wolf does not help town? the alternative is having faith in luna is the dreamer, hoping we're lucky in the 3 names.I literally just laid out the scenario for you. Knowing that 1/3 players in his pool are scum would be helpful now when there are 9 players because it takes a small subset of them, sets it aside and gives us an opportunity to lynch in that pool to reduce it.
It would be helpful, but that is not the situation.
If P_lt is the probability that lunatic is town then the probability of hitting scum in his list is either P_lt * 0.33 or P_lt * 0.66 (depending on if there are two scum or just one on the list).
Just because it would be helpful if you knew P_lt = 1.00 doesn't mean that is an apparent fact to town.
In my scenario #1 town would lose after misslynching three people on that list (three days of misslynching plus 3 night kills is -6 town and there are only 7 spare)
So you have to agree that town can't just methodically go through the list and keep hoping that Lunatic was town right? Like imagine we lynch User or I am lynched, turns out the person was town.
Are you just going to lynch someone else on the list or are you going to revisit Lunatic's trustworthiness? If it's the later wouldn't it be better to get it out of the way now when fewer night kills have occurred?
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@ILikePie5
Why should be assume RB?
we in rolemadness, it is reasonable to believe mafia can stop town prs. in my last mafia game in mafiascum mafia had an ascetic + alien.
No, it’s better to find the townies in the 3 people identified and lynch the scum.
Why? This assumes Luna is town/dreamer.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I pick a player (doesn't say town or mafia) to build a Potemkin village around. If somebody tries to use a lethal action in the night, I die instead.
So let’s say you build the village around a member of scum. What happens then?
There is nothing about who knows what. I assume that nobody is informed when they are protected and no lethal action is attempted. When/If I die protecting somebody, I assume that would be explained in the night action summary but I am not 100% certain.The town can be moved to a different player twice in the game. Perhaps that means if I build the down the protection outlast my own life, like I could protect someone, get lynched or murdered, and they would still be protected?I don't see how any of this helps establish trust though.
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@ILikePie5
Do you still think we should lynch you DP3 if this DP ends in a mislynch.
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@That2User
if Luna is town, if Luna is scum then it is world changing, we do not know Luna's alignment until we eliminate him
We don’t know your alignment till we eliminate you either.
idk why people have blind faith in luna being the dreamer, why is it so unlikely this is a mafia fakeclaim?
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@Mharman
Do you still think we should lynch you DP3 if this DP ends in a mislynch.
If we mislynch here, it should still be 5-2, so my answer is yes. If there are 3 scum, we have bigger problems
Btw I was completely off in what I thought banana was going to claim but it turned out to be more scummier than I thought
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@ILikePie5
We don’t know your alignment till we eliminate you either.
Yes but Luna's flip does not only give his alignment if he is the dreamer
Catching up to where I left last night
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@Vader
Btw I was completely off in what I thought banana was going to claim but it turned out to be more scummier than I thought
Please explain
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@ILikePie5
I pick a player (doesn't say town or mafia) to build a Potemkin village around. If somebody tries to use a lethal action in the night, I die instead.So let’s say you build the village around a member of scum. What happens then?
I can ask.
Are you saying that town never has lethal night actions so there would be nothing to be protected from?
Yea OK, I get that; but I can't tell the difference between protecting scum who can't be harmed and protecting a townie so how does that help?
It does say "night actions" so I'm sure it wouldn't protect from a lynching (if that's even a thing in this game).
i've seen 10-3, 8-3 is massively scumsided
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@That2User
we in rolemadness, it is reasonable to believe mafia can stop town prs. in my last mafia game in mafiascum mafia had an ascetic + alien.
Why through a roleblocker specifically though?
Why? This assumes Luna is town/dreamer.
No it doesn’t. We can independently determine our reads and move forward from there.