The Russian Mafia DP3

Author: Casey_Risk

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I started this one slightly early. This DP will last 72 hours and will end at 9:00 PM EDT on Tuesday the 22nd, or when a majority vote is reached.

Deceased players:
  • Earth - Lynched DP1 - Ivan III (Ivan the Great) - Neighborizer
  • Savant - Died NP1 - Sergei Witte - DP2 Emissary
  • That2User - Executed DP2 - You are Grigori Rasputin! Born to a peasant family in Siberia, Rasputin had a sudden religious awakening in adulthood and became an ascetic traveler, gaining much fame and notoriety. His fame eventually reached Moscow and spread to the royal family who invited him in, hopeful that he could heal their son who, unbeknownst to the public, was a hemophiliac. As the famous song goes, 'For the queen, he was no wheeler-dealer, though she'd heard the things he'd done. She believed he was a holy healer who would heal her son.' Because of Rasputin's status as a mystic faith healer with outsized political influence, you are the White Mage. During the night phase, you may target any player to protect them from lethal night actions on that night, as well as during the following night. You may not use your ability two nights in a row. You will not be told if your action fails. You win with the Town.
  • Mharman - Died NP2 - You are Mikhail Gorbachev! As leader of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev promoted two big policies, Glasnost (openness) and Perestroika (restructuring), advertising them almost as if they were own personal trademarks. However, his policies ultimately led to the breakup of the USSR. Because of Gorbachev’s focus on increased government transparency (Glasnost), you are the Watcher. Once per night, you may target any player to learn who, if anyone, used an action on them during the night (other than yourself). You win with the Town.
Living players:
  1. ILikePie5
  2. Lunatic
  3. whiteflame
  4. Vader
  5. iamanabanana
  6. Cerulean
  7. ADreamOfLiberty
With seven living players, it takes four votes to reach a majority.
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@Lunatic
@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
Начинается третий день
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@ADreamOfLiberty
@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Начинается третий день
Lunatic
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Big surprise, I didn't receive results last night. 

WTF Was that2users plan?! WHAT?! LIKE WHAT. IS TOWN THROWING WHATS GOING ON?!

Also with that2users role, we now have three protective claims. So with ADOL already being on results, that2users flip, and Ceruleans hint at being a healer, I am a little dubious of ADOL atm.

ADOL who did you protect and why?
Lunatic
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@Vader
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@ADreamOfLiberty
@Cerulean
What did everyone do and why? 
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@ILikePie5
Dude town is throwing. Idek. What was her plan lol. On the one hand its a good thing she wasn't a fvcking BP, but now it makes sense why she had so many inconsistencies with her claim.

Town should not be lying unless they know how to do it. Ideally they just shouldn't do it. 
ADreamOfLiberty
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Ok, just a quick recap from my perspective:

I am on the list. I know I'm town, so given Lunatic is town that means it was 50/50 that lynching another person on the list would have hit scum.


That didn't happen, so now it's a simple dichotomy (again from my perspective): Either Lunatic is scum, or Banana is.


Pie is certain about banana, so certain that I suspect that they're either the scum team or he somehow validated banana as town in someway he didn't want to reveal.

More than a few people townread Lunatic and apparently failed to see the cogency of That2User and then my observations about information sequence advantage so it won't be cut and dry if Luna is lynched as scum.


Regardless, for the town, this is second to last chance to get it right. I'm not going to support another lynch from the list.

VTL Lunatic
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Before I respond to your request, Luna... nah, it doesn't make sense to me, either. In fact, it makes so little sense to me that I'm questioning whether something else is going on, perhaps some kind of role swap. Regardless, there are two things we know:

If That2 was actually the Beloved Princess as they claimed, it did not activate on Execution. So that flip isn't just a Tailored role. That2 died as a different role, so either they lied about their role for some baffling reason, or their role was heavily manipulated.
That flip does clearly indicate the existence of yet another protective claim, and yeah, that automatically makes me sus ADOL and, to a lesser extent, Cerulean.

As for claiming, I'll limit myself (for now, I will full claim after we've heard some more night actions) to saying that I visited Banana.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I'm fine revisiting your logic here afterward, but we need to start with what you did during the last NP. Also, your thoughts on the flips would be nice, since yet another protective role was revealed.
Vader
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I don't get the logic at all but sure???

Anyway it's either 5v2 or 4v3 

Pie said he wanted to be lynched before MYLO/LYLO

Want to hear from him and I also want to hear if there were any other actions that happened to him
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Who did you target last night?
Vader
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So one thing is for certain we know the Princess isn't in the game because it wasn't CC'd at all or it's a scum character that now they can't claim. Still the logic makes no sense at all and I just don't understand the point of that
Vader
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@Lunatic
Targetted Pie. Waiting for his confirmation
Casey_Risk
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Votes:

Lunatic (1/4): ADOL

Did you know? Empress Catherine II (Catherine the Great) had herself inoculated against smallpox, a controversial decision at the time. However, her promotion of inoculations as a response to smallpox was largely successful, and by 1800 about 2 million inoculations were administered in the Russian Empire.
Vader
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Also gonna just claim because it's pretty obvious what I am and mharman pretty much already got my role, yes I am the Fruit Vendor. Each night I give a person a fruit and it does nothing but just notifies them they got a fruit. My character is Pyotr Stolypin. I was responisble for reforming the agriculture system in Russia to make it so that is was easier for peasent to by farms. I got assissinated in 1911 and my contribution greatly improved agriculture efficiency.
Vader
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I targetted whiteflame NP1 and Pie NP2. I asked Whiteflame about the fruit because I just wanted to see if he would lie about it at all. Doesn't rule him out of POE but he was telling the truth
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@Lunatic
ADOL who did you protect and why?
Doesn't matter.

Nobody has been better than random based on claim analysis in this game or the last one I played. It's just a tool for misdirection.

There are no hard and fast rules about the theme character split or the roles that might be seen. I won't engage in any discussion which pretends otherwise.
Lunatic
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@Vader
Also gonna just claim because it's pretty obvious what I am and mharman pretty much already got my role, yes I am the Fruit Vendor. Each night I give a person a fruit and it does nothing but just notifies them they got a fruit. My character is Pyotr Stolypin. I was responisble for reforming the agriculture system in Russia to make it so that is was easier for peasent to by farms. I got assissinated in 1911 and my contribution greatly improved agriculture efficiency.
Yeah you are town confirmed with whiteflame
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Also going to be not active tonight. Will be on tomorrow a bit more before Easter dinner
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Doesn't matter.

Nobody has been better than random based on claim analysis in this game or the last one I played. It's just a tool for misdirection.

There are no hard and fast rules about the theme character split or the roles that might be seen. I won't engage in any discussion which pretends otherwise.

You had two chances to protect the night kill if the role you claimed is legit. You could either target the person carrying the kill and die in their place, or you would protect the person dying and die in their place. Now we have three protective roles, none of which apparently targeted correctly. We can piece together who is lying out of you three better by organizing who visited who last night. Chances are there aren't three protective roles and we know that2user is one of them for sure. 
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
WTF Was that2users plan?! WHAT?! LIKE WHAT. IS TOWN THROWING WHATS GOING ON?!

Also with that2users role, we now have three protective claims. So with ADOL already being on results, that2users flip, and Ceruleans hint at being a healer, I am a little dubious of ADOL atm.
Literally the dumbest move possible. Literally had two townies throw this game. I’m down to lynch ADOL. At this point, no way he’s town especially with 3 claimed protective roles. 

ADOL who did you protect and why?

ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
Dude town is throwing. Idek. What was her plan lol. On the one hand its a good thing she wasn't a fvcking BP, but now it makes sense why she had so many inconsistencies with her claim.

Town should not be lying unless they know how to do it. Ideally they just shouldn't do it. 
Actually retarded. Idk what the end goal was. Like if she had just claimed White Mage, everyone would’ve been fine with it
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@Vader
I don't get the logic at all but sure???

Anyway it's either 5v2 or 4v3 

Pie said he wanted to be lynched before MYLO/LYLO
Yes

Want to hear from him and I also want to hear if there were any other actions that happened to him
Nothing happened to me in the night
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@Vader
I targetted whiteflame NP1 and Pie NP2. I asked Whiteflame about the fruit because I just wanted to see if he would lie about it at all. Doesn't rule him out of POE but he was telling the truth
I got nothing from you. So either you were manipulated or you’re lying
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@Lunatic
You had two chances to protect the night kill if the role you claimed is legit.
and how would I possibly know who was going to be night killed (outside the list and Luna)?


We can piece together who is lying out of you three better by organizing who visited who last night.
No you can't because you don't know who is telling the truth about visiting whom.

If you have a form of corroboration, start there. Otherwise this is irrelevant and if you are scum it's merely a tool which you might use to distract from the cold hard numbers.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Doesn't matter.

Nobody has been better than random based on claim analysis in this game or the last one I played. It's just a tool for misdirection.

There are no hard and fast rules about the theme character split or the roles that might be seen. I won't engage in any discussion which pretends otherwise.
???

That’s why he’s asking you who you chose last night? Behaviorally you have to have a reason to choose who you did?
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@ILikePie5
That’s why he’s asking you who you chose last night?
Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.
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@ILikePie5
Literally the dumbest move possible. Literally had two townies throw this game. I’m down to lynch ADOL. At this point, no way he’s town especially with 3 claimed protective roles. 
I am leaning that way atm as well, plus his dodgy behavior
Lunatic
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@ILikePie5
Actually retarded. Idk what the end goal was. Like if she had just claimed White Mage, everyone would’ve been fine with it
If she was tailored or something thats the only pass I will give her. I just don't see why she didnt claim this yesterday after ADOL and ceru had claimed protective roles...
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@Lunatic
Maybe I'm getting too emotional about this: but if town lynches the two people who got the math right (User and I) and then said "they threw it" I think I'm about done playing mafia. You all got your secret hand shakes and your palm reading, but in the end you're still lynching town and you're still losing.