Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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#751
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@whiteflame
I’m going to

VTL WF 


I just don’t see the WF I remember. The reads are there but they feel wishy washy and indecisive. I think the reason most people townread him is the frustration, but it could be the same frustration as scum. Sort of a “not again.”
#752
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WF: Banana
Mhar: Casey, WF, Wylted 
Wylted: Moozer, Pie

#753
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@ILikePie5
I really don’t like this
#754
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@Mikal
I really don’t like this
Why?
#755
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@ILikePie5
With all the soft claims and hard claims at this point, I think we have enough. Just picking someone who hasn’t claimed to claim and then using that as something to pick a lynch off of feels bad. On god would rather pick someone that feels bad, claimed or not and just lock in and send it. We are giving out so much info with more claims. 

#756
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@ILikePie5
I just don’t see the WF I remember. The reads are there but they feel wishy washy and indecisive. I think the reason most people townread him is the frustration, but it could be the same frustration as scum. Sort of a “not again.”
I mean, I’m not surprised you’re sussing me, I just don’t love the reasoning. You know well by this point that indecision, particularly in DP1, is not at all unusual for me. I’m presenting my reads differently than normal, but that also includes last game where I was scum. As for the frustration, it’s your perception I guess. I’ve said my piece on that front. 
#757
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@Mikal
With all the soft claims and hard claims at this point, I think we have enough.
We only have 2 hard claims and 2 soft claims that could be anything really. And not everyone is sold on your scum reads. Are you town reading all 3 people?

Just picking someone who hasn’t claimed to claim and then using that as something to pick a lynch off of feels bad.
Who said it’s random? There are reasons to scumread them from my POV and a lot of them are in scum pools of others. Do you really townread all 3? Let me ask it better: is the scum team really Earth/Banana/X to you?

On god would rather pick someone that feels bad, claimed or not and just lock in and send it. We are giving out so much info with more claims. 
We’re not lynching blind.
#758
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@whiteflame
I mean, I’m not surprised you’re sussing me, I just don’t love the reasoning. You know well by this point that indecision, particularly in DP1, is not at all unusual for me. I’m presenting my reads differently than normal, but that also includes last game where I was scum. As for the frustration, it’s your perception I guess. I’ve said my piece on that front. 
That’s fine. I’ve made my choice and you have made yours. I have a reason to scumread all 3 choices tbf, I just think you’re at the top of that rn
#759
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@ILikePie5
No I’ve said this above

Earth 
Bananna 
Wylted 
Mharm 
Moozer 


Is prob my Poe order right now. I just am Semi confident with the front two. Not that I think another claim is bad but doing this all on dp1 seems risky. I still want to revisit earth and read through like I said but today has been shit and trying to get on the computer to do that. 




#760
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@Mikal
No I’ve said this above

Earth 
Bananna 
Wylted 
Mharm 
Moozer 


Is prob my Poe order right now. I just am Semi confident with the front two. Not that I think another claim is bad but doing this all on dp1 seems risky. I still want to revisit earth and read through like I said but today has been shit and trying to get on the computer to do that. 
Out of those 5 names. How many scum do you thing there are? And what are the team combos for those?
#761
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I am bouncing around with the Poe order because I’m reverse engineering 

I feel way more confident in 

Savant 
Casey 
Pie
Wf


leaning hard on 

Earth 
And Ana 


The rest are in the middle largely by Poe and not hard scum reads. I don’t need to have all 3 scum reads right now. I need to have some scum reads and confident town reads and work backwards. 
#762
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@ILikePie5
If you are asking potential combos. Off hand I have no clue. I just am posting an order based off who I consider more towny to not. 


I think it’s unlikely Austin and Wylted are scum 

It’s more like they are town on town or scum vs town. 


That is the only major dynamic between two people I’ve picked up on enough to say I think there is a possible either or 
#763
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Gut feeling is scum v town 
#764
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@Mikal
If you are asking potential combos. Off hand I have no clue. I just am posting an order based off who I consider more towny to not. 


I think it’s unlikely Austin and Wylted are scum 

It’s more like they are town on town or scum vs town. 


That is the only major dynamic between two people I’ve picked up on enough to say I think there is a possible either or 
Alright. If you were the King and Banana/Earth were immune from being voted, what would you do and why?
#765
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@ILikePie5
I just got asked this earlier. I can rephrase but if you scroll back you can see my response. 
#766
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@Mikal
I don’t see you responding to something similar. Post number?
#767
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@ILikePie5
Really hard to do this on my phone but it’s at worst a page or two back. Casey asked banana and I the same question. 
#768
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@ILikePie5
That’s fine. I’ve made my choice and you have made yours. I have a reason to scumread all 3 choices tbf, I just think you’re at the top of that rn
Alright then. Don't really get it, but fine.

#769
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
I'm fine getting a claim from WF

VTL WF
#770
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Not a ton of changes, but I'm going to post updated reads since we are nearing the end of the day phase.
#771
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@Mikal
@AustinL0926
Reads List 4.0
Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 70%, since there are 7 town players besides me and 3 scum players.

AustinL0926
  • Town (80%)
  • Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, Castledp1
  • Playing as Scum: Diarydp1, Diarydp2, Diarydp3
  • #583, #599 - T - Very unlikely this role claim is fake or that role belongs to scum. However, if Austin is scum, it’s possible a scum partner came up with this fake role for him, and it is possible it’s the fake scum role claim, since the show doesn’t fit too well. I also think scum would claim everything they want to claim at once, while town would throw out info desperately in Austin’s position.
  • #588, #590, #592, #594 - TL - Feels like this is coming from someone genuinely catching up without being fed any information from scum. Town reading as scum here would be pretty bold, though I could see other scum recommending this to build trust.
  • #631, #632, #633 - T - Thoughts seem more likely to occur to town, and I agree with the point about Mikal in particular.
  • #728, #729, #730 - T - I don’t think scum Austin would analyze posts in this level of detail, effort seems towny
Casey_Risk
  • Town Lean (78.5%)
  • Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
  • Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
  • #78 - TL - I don’t think scum Casey would agree with no lynch either, but this is a towny concern to bring up.
  • #80, #86, #91 - TL - I agree with the read on banana, and I think defending other players like this for pretty justifiable reasons is pro-town. Some of these things not being super AI is why my reads aren’t super strong at the moment, but I thought it was worth taking everything into account. I think generously town reading players is an unlikely scum play, and it indicates that Casey is not worried about POE getting too small around them.
  • #81 - TL - Not super indicative, but I think enthusiasm for sharing role information is generally a good sign.
  • #98, #102, #129, #147, #445, #450, #453, #628, #629, #630 - T - Feels like genuine scum hunting, inquiry, and theme analysis.
  • #155, #190 - SL - The first post seemed like it could be genuine, and I’ve seen townies with convictions like this. However, in the second post, it’s odd that Casey quoted Mikal without noting that Luna said the tactic didn’t go against the rules. Might indicate that Casey objected for the purpose of hindering town.
  • #129, #193, #200, #210 - T - Concise and reasonable. Casey stuck more to the details of other people’s posts in their town game (Serial Killers) here and here for example, but tended to ramble and be more verbose in their scum game here and here for example. Also drawing more attention to themselves than they need to just to ask questions, which I don’t think scum would expect to be town read for.
  • #205 - TL - Town reading another player they don’t have to, but mostly with substantive info. Could have been more concise in response to my previous post to be more town read but wasn’t. (And despite having a paragraph it doesn’t feel like rambling.) Fixation on a small detail that town might genuinely be bugged by but that scum would probably avoid going down for fear of looking like they’re trying to invent an issue.
  • #218, #227, #228 - TL - More solid, pro-town analysis that seems like a noticeable effort to identify scum and town.
  • #519, #528, #548 - TL - I don’t think scum would risk going against a top town read like this, and it’s not a WIFOM gambit I think scum Casey would make. Plus the reasons given are understandable.
  • #657 - TL - A decent amount of effort put into a read, and I don’t think scum would work this hard to explain their thought process if it was just made up.
Mikal
  • Town Lean (77.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
  • Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
  • #16 - TL - An early post where the vote seems more substantive than for “joke” reasons, even if the goal is just to get someone’s attention, it’s not presented alongside a quip.
  • #18, #25, #27 - TL - Ticking off another player like this would be an odd move coming from scum. Really I only see it biasing people against Mikal, hence I’m inclined to town read it. WIFOM, I know, but I just don’t see Mikal banking on being town read for being annoying.
  • #34, #57, #137 - TL - I like that Mikal is taking the lead, and the explanation of the even-odd strat seems largely towny.
  • #36, #38 - TL - Confronting another player out the gate is good, and Mikal is asking something I was curious about as well. This is pro-town at the very least. Also Mikal tends to be more confrontational as town (here, here, here, here) and more laid-back as scum (here, here, here)
  • #165 - TL - This kind of indecision and uncertainty about another player comes from town more often than from scum.
  • #209 - TL - Sticks to his guns without planting additional seeds for a push.
  • #275 - TL - As I mentioned before, aggression like this is a town tell for Mikal, and I think pushing WF for specifics is warranted.
  • #277, #281, #288, #289, #290 - TL - Mikal throws out a lot of specifics here that I think scum would have a hard time improvising while remaining genuine. And his attack on Earth is consistent, even if I think it’s mostly unsupported.
  • #308, #309, #311, #315, #316 - TL - Very slight town read here. Strategy seems solid with no red flags, but I’ve seen this kind of thing before from Mikal, so it doesn’t move the needle that much.
  • #443, #454 - TL - Similar to how I’ve spoken to and about people I suspect when I’m town, perhaps even more obviously sincere than that, and I have a hard time seeing scum fake this.
  • #505, #507, #508 - TL - Towny analysis, emotions that seem sincere from a town perspective. The shift on Pie seems sincere to me.
  • #537, #540, #549, #555 - T - Very towny annoyance and defense that makes a lot of sense to me. These aren’t super easy mislynches, but Mikal seems to understand how inactives could be perceived that way.
  • #570 - SL - Giving up role info to reduce pressure seems more scummy than towny (and the information is barely useful). I mean I could see it as either alignment, but it’s not like revealing this really helps town. Plus, trying to use this to attack Earth feels opportunistic.
  • #615 - TL - I agree with Austin that this is a towny consideration from Mikal.
  • #666 - TL - Agree with Casey that this is a pro town concern, but the town lean comes more from the way it is phrased, imagining what could go wrong from town POV
  • #700, #701 - TL - Attacking banana by defending Moozer and criticizing that read feels pretty towny.
Moozer325
  • Town Lean (71.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: IPdp1, IPdp2, IPdp3
  • #306, #331 - TL - Seems genuine and open for the most part, though in this position I think scum has no choice but to claim, so only a slight town read.
  • #438 - TL - I like these reads, and confident/active players often seem townie, so I buy that read as genuine (particularly with the comparison to last game).
  • #530, #534, #543, #545 - T - If Moozer is lying here, it’s a lot of lies packed very densely, and I don’t think scum Moozer would fake that level of analysis.
  • #533 - T - Offering to claim right after a decent analysis, hard to fake all of that at once. Seems sincere.
iLikePie5
  • Scum Lean (69%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
  • Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
  • #48, #49, #51 - TL - I like that Pie’s first posts are immediately about the game, no attempts to gain cred just through agreeableness.
  • #55, #119, #120 - NAI - After reading Casey’s post, I agree that this probably isn’t a town slip. Pie’s explanation is fine. I could see these posts coming from either alignment
  • #121, #122, #124, #126, #127 - SL - Pie is active as usual, which isn’t particularly AI, but his posts seem kind of noncommittal, mostly agreeing or giving meta information about players. Kind of the bare minimum to appear active.
  • #125 - TL - I like that Pie is challenging a player, somewhat mitigates with my concerns about the other posts being noncommittal
  • #136, #138 - TL - Towny concerns, and it somewhat convinces me the earlier meta analysis was genuinely aimed toward helping town
  • #141, #142 - TL - Retracting an accusation like that indicates to me it was probably sincere. Could be faked or maybe forced by the situation, but I don’t think scum Pie would back down out of fear or plan to challenge and then back down.
  • #515, #516, #535, #542 - T - Towny analysis that isn’t overly focused on one point (which scum tend to do) and is based on his own role, which I don’t think scum would use as an argument since it would limit their claims later. Impression I’m getting from past games is that Pie is more detail-oriented as town.
  • #652, #655, #659 - TL - Pie’s behavior toward Austin remains very consistent, and I think these thoughts are indicative of a genuine town read.
  • #654, #656 - TL - Decently towny thought process, and willing to engage even if it means addressing suspicion on himself without countering it.
  • #751 - TL - Agree with this, lack of aggression is rare for Pie and in this case it seems genuine since the logic tracks.
#772
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iamabanana
  • Scum Lean (66.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: BBdp1, BBdp2
  • #7 - TL - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
  • #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
  • #198 - TL - I like how banana sticks to her guns here, and the answer seems focused on town perspective rather than just being defensive.
  • #199 - TL - Putting pressure on inactives like this is a town concern, and her response before is long and noticeable enough that just voting for Moozer wouldn’t be done to divert attention. If banana were scum under pressure, I think she would focus on either putting pressure on Moozer or giving a sufficient defense (not both).
  • #299 - SL - I don’t love that banana’s only post in a while is a defensive one, repeating a point they already made.
  • #378 - TL - Defending Earth like this is townie when he could be a possible lynch today.
  • #399, #417, #421 - SL - A bit OMGUSy and overly defensive, and the defense of Earth seems a bit opportunistic as a way to throw suspicion toward Mikal. She’s been focused on defense as scum before here and here, though I couldn’t really find a similar situation to compare that behavior to in her town game. (Although she seemed a bit more open and less accusatory in general as town.)
  • #606 - TL - A lot of effort, I think it’s unlikely banana goes this far under pressure if she’s scum.
  • #677, #678, #682 - TL - The continued pushing and amount of effort make the read on Mikal feels genuine, especially when banana isn’t the top lynch today.
  • #694 - SL - The defensiveness is getting to the point of being excessive and more than I’d expect a town member to actually feel. And denying that it is defensiveness doesn’t really help.
Mharman
  • Scum Lean (66.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • #60, #61 - TL - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
  • #105 - T - The read on Mikal seems genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum suspect someone and then give a reason why they actually might not be suspicious with zero pushback.
  • #143, #144, #145 - TL - More questions that seem like they’re coming from a towny perspective, I don’t think scum Mharman would pretend not to know if scum have questions just to get town read.
  • #291, #301, #310 - TL - If Mharman is scum here, then the strategy is probably to pursue a WyIted lynch or Pie lynch by throwing out seeds. Or allow Earth to be lynched by not defending him. But he defends inactives decently and defends the town core, so his thoughts seem more likely from genuine town trying to catch up and get thoughts out.
  • #318 - TL - Mharman going back and forth on WF seems genuine. Idk if scum would be willing to seem inconsistent like this.
  • #321 - SL - This post is pretty verbose, and rambling a bit is often a scum tell. Also could be planting potential seeds for a lynch without committing.
Earth
  • Scum Lean (66%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
  • #35 - TL - For an infrequent poster, drawing attention early without a need comes across as more instinctive to town than to scum.
  • #117 - TL - I don’t think scum Earth would offer to out his show without prompting.
  • #157 - TL - Pro-town imo to advocate this strategy, even offering a way to make it more feasible.
  • #235, #239, #240 - T - So much agreement here (except on inactives), and I’ll give Earth more credit for this than someone like WF (who is very towny as scum). If anything, I might suspect that Earth is copying my reads, but overall his reasoning is close to what I would say.
  • #350 - SL - Post justification makes sense, and if it’s fake Survivor probably used up the mafia fake claim, but it’s an easy role to fake claim and non confirmable. Also, the show started in 2000, not before. Not in town’s interest to claim here since it just narrows down power roles and loses all the role’s utility, but could be an attempt to get pressure off by claiming early, while the soldier should want suspicion on them to avoid the NK.
  • #353, #359 - SL - Explanation seems iffy to me. There’s a good chance that Earth wanted to keep his claim options open earlier by saying after 2000 and then looked up roles in recent games.
  • #603 - TL - The details in Earth’s justification about the Survivor show feel like they could actually be from a role PM (“physical and mental trials to the very end…”) though it’s probably a rephrase.
  • #698 - TL - Defending another player for similar reasons he’s used to defend himself makes his posting seem more genuine.
Wylted
  • Scum Lean (62.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
  • Playing as Scum: Castledp1
  • #3 - SL - I know it’s WIFOM, but if this post is alignment indicative (not convinced it is), I think the intent is to appear unafraid of gaining attention and hence towny, especially since WyIted is usually given a pass for such posts. Which in turn makes it a strategic move for scum.
  • #45 - SL - I don’t love that WyIted immediately qualifies his claim with a fun fact about reality shows. If he gave that information separately, it would be fine, but I think that when people are being deceptive or discussing information they don’t want revealed, they have a tendency to immediately answer the question and then change the subject.
  • #77 - TL - The concern here seems towny, since we are only a few pages in.
  • #93, #95, #97, #103, #108 - TL - This actually mitigates some of my previous concerns, it comes across as WyIted genuinely being interested in theme analysis and the topic in general.
  • #319, #324 - TL - The effort and anger here feel genuine, and it does convince me that the earlier posts are more likely to be sincere.
  • #574, #575, #579, #580, #581, #582, #585 - NAI - Looking back at WyIted’s last town game, I agree this isn’t scummy.
  • #674 - TL - This would be a very odd thing for WyIted to make up if he’s scum.
whiteflame
  • Scum Lean (62%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
  • #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste. Casey is probably right that this isn’t that significant, so the lean is very slight.
  • #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
  • #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
  • #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
  • #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
  • #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
  • #234 - TL - I’m seeing a good amount of effort here put into explaining the “why” behind his reads, and all of it seems fairly logical from a town perspective. I agree with him here more than I disagree with him, and I don’t see any opportunistic scum reads or possibly partnered town reads sticking out.
  • #241 - TL - Agree on Casey being a top town read. See where WF is coming from on Mikal’s behavior, and if WF is town, then it makes sense for there to be no clear scum reads atm. Maybe I’m giving too much credit based off of agreement, and I do think scum WF would acknowledge strong town reads, but the lack of apparent agenda here is a green flag.
  • #564 - SL - Decent enough, I guess, but WF tends to have mostly accurate reads as either alignment. Compared to the effort a lot of other players are putting in, I barely see anything new here. I guess I’d just expect more being added to the discussion if WF is town.
  • #627 - TL - Ok, this mitigates my concern that WF didn’t have any super impactful reads to move the game forward.
  • #660 - TL - More of the WF I’m used to with the analysis, which partially mitigates my concern that he’s acting particularly scummy today.
  • #664 - TL - Starting a train like this leans towny, I don’t think WF really needed to do this to avoid being lynched.
#773
Savant
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@Earth
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@Moozer325
@iamanabanana
See above.
#774
Savant
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Lmk if tagging everyone on the long posts is annoying and I'll stop.
#775
Earth
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@Savant
Can you explain how my scumlean works?
#776
Savant
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@Earth
Can you explain how my scumlean works?
You don't have a lot of AI posts, so even though most of your posts are town leaning, the convenience of the role claim has a lot of weight. Also a few players are very towny, which makes everyone else more likely to be scum. If I didn't have a solid town block, for example, Pie would probably be a town lean.
#777
Savant
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@Earth
Should also note that scum lean just means your odds of being town are < 70%. You're still more likely town than not.
#778
ILikePie5
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WF: Banana, Pie, Savant
Mhar: Casey, WF, Wylted 
Wylted: Moozer

#779
Savant
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@ILikePie5
Could just ask Luna to post the vote count...
#780
AustinL0926
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I don't really support a whiteflame claim, I don't see what he's done that's scummy and getting a claim just for the sake of getting claims feels pointless. Claims are meant to be a situational tool for the rest of the game to improve their read on the player who's claiming, not as something that's arbitrarily applied to players who aren't being townread.