VTNL
-wylted
Pokemon Mafia DP4
Posts
Total:
180
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@bsh1
What if Club is a Mafia poisoner?
poison doctor****
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@Speedrace
poison doctor****
The dude is scum to the teeth. Supa likely got him last night.
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@ILikePie5
I highly doubt it lol, the general consensus was you, so if Supa poisoned he probably would've poisoned you lol
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@Speedrace
In which case he would’ve died considering I’m the Bomb lol
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@Speedrace
btw u tryin to play Secret Hitler rn?
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@ILikePie5
Sure lol I haven't played it in a couple of months, lesssssss gooooooooooo
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@ILikePie5
Do they die on the attempt or die when you die?
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@Speedrace
GeIm ILikePie5 I’m in game rn
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@Speedrace
Actions happen simultaneously I think
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@ILikePie5
What's the name of it?
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@Speedrace
whats ur username, I’m same as here
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@ILikePie5
Speedrace
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@Speedrace
Make a game I’ll join
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@ILikePie5
Ok
It's named Awesome Darts
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@Speedrace
What if Club is a Mafia poisoner?
How does that make sense, though? A town poisoner is not necessarily a pro-town role. Town killing roles are statistically likely to kill more townies that mafiosos. It makes sense, I think, for there to be a protective role to mitigate the risk of a town poisoner choose poor targets.
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@ILikePie5
In which case he would’ve died considering I’m the Bomb lol
That makes no sense. Bombs only explode on direct kill attempts, making a poisoner immune from bombing. That's actually really interesting, because it means your claimed role would do even less than I thought to counterbalance a scum team with two killing abilities.
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@oromagi
Results list.
Wylted VTNL'd. I think that's interesting as a strategy. Right now, the game is at 5-3. Let's play this out under two scenarios, assuming we VTNL this DP.
Scenario 1 - Two mafia kills
DP4: 5-3
DP5: 3-3
Mafia Wins
Scenario 2 - One mafia kill
DP4: 5-3
DP5: 4-3
DP6: 3-3
Mafia Wins
In theory then, a no-lynch this DP could buy us all another DP to sort things out and to advance POE. However, it only makes sense in the context of us believing that Scenario 2 is more likely, and I am not sold that it is. Plus, can Club self-heal? If he can't, or if he simply doesn't, then we cannot no-lynch, and we are at MYLO instead of LYLO.
For the noobs, MYLO is "mislynch and lose," which is a stage of the game when a mislynch will result in a town loss, but a no-lynch would not. LYLO is "lynch and lose," which is a stage of the game when a mislynch or a no-lynch would result in a town loss. A VTNL only makes sense if we're in MYLO, not if we're in LYLO.
we are at MYLO instead of LYLO.
Scratch that and reverse it.
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@ILikePie5
The dude is scum to the teeth. Supa likely got him last night.
This makes sense, not only for the reasons Speed named, but because Club is literally not scum. I refuse to believe that there is a poisoner (maybe two) and a claimed bomb in a game without an active protective role. That would be serious mod malfeasance, and warren doesn't strike me as someone who would so heavily underequip town as to deny us an active protective role.
I think we can agree though that Club is not scum, and I don't think you or Wylted are either. Ruling out the three of us, I have the following list of names:OroPhionePieWaterIf I am right, and all three scum are somewhere in that list, we have a 75% chance of lynching correctly this DP.
Revised. Pie is still my top scumread. Oro...eh...I really don't like his play last DP, but I think there must be an investigative role of some kind for balance, and so I am inclined to believe his claim. Now that Mhar's flipped town, I am less convinced of Water's guilt. So, for me, on this list, I think Pie is the best lynch, and then it's a coin flip between Water and Phione.
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@Speedrace
I think that mafia has some kind of investigative role tooThink about it, night one likely NK Disc who was bulletproof, then grey, then Supa
They wouldn't have known about Disc NP1 because they wouldn't have had a chance to use any investigative role. But, I think you're right that they do have an investigative role, but for a slightly different reason. Supa's kill is kind odd. He was a viable mislynch target for town and was, from my POV, disengaged with the game.Why kill Supa over a productive townie like you or me? I think the most plausible answer to this is that mafia discovered that Supa had a killing role, which could pose a danger to the mafia, more so than a passive investigator, which they could just avoid visiting.
Honestly, I think mafia has to have a poisoner. Because warren said Supa can't poison, the only way to explain Club's day-flavor is that there are two poisoners. That puts us as town in a really dangerous spot, and means we shouldn't VTNL. We're at LYLO.
Alright. I am logging off for the night. See y'all tomorrow.
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@bsh1
I was thinking precisely the same thingThat makes no sense. Bombs only explode on direct kill attempts, making a poisoner immune from bombing
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@bsh1
My bad for explaining my thoughts badly lol, but this was exactly what I was thinkingWhy kill Supa over a productive townie like you or me? I think the most plausible answer to this is that mafia discovered that Supa had a killing role, which could pose a danger to the mafia, more so than a passive investigator, which they could just avoid visiting.
Bump
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@bsh1
@ILikePie5
SOMEONE SPEAK