---Celebrity Mafia: DP1---

Richard Hatch is his name. I think he is my favorite gay guy. Fucking genius and a bear

I am familiar with the term bear so that does clear up the confusion. Thanks.

Richard hatch from survivor is not to be confused by the Battlestar Galactica actor of the same name

That was just a joke lol, I am straight but idgaf if a bunch of gay porn popped up on my screen, its just pics.

Sure, it makes sense the town to do this in later day phases. DP1 doesn't make sense to start this though. There's too much risk for the town to lynch a fellow town member in DP1.

Why do we need to do it for DP1?

Beginning a conversation and generating behaviors to read = good for town

Immediate VTNL and giving a free NK to scum NP 1 and getting nothing out of it = good for scum

Am I missing something?

This is true. But it's assuming the town actually lynches a mafia member and not a town member.

It's quite a risk. If it goes well, yes, the town will end up better. If not, then it will be quite a blunder.

Obviously it is better to lynch mafia than town but  we have about a 50% chance of hitting correct and if we keep taking 50/50 shots we should win. The town block is slowly getting larger so we probably have at least 60% likelihood of hitting right, and every person we kill off from our scum list means makes our odds of shooting straight better. 

Anyway be back on tomorrow 

I am going to soft claim my role with this video https://youtu.be/ooOELrGMn14

Why 50% chance? We don't know how many mafia members there are, do we?

Seems awfully strange Wylted would claim a percentage chance for the town to be correct or wrong, right? Only mafia members would know the odds. 

I assume 3 based on 12 player games bsh1 has created in the past. If bsh1 has bought into 3 being too high of a number he may have hedged a bit by making it 2 scum and one solo win third party. Most likely 3 scum though

But, I'll stick to VTNL for now, since it is still DP1, and I don't consider this quite enough compelling.

His beginner series games all had 12 people. 3 of which were scum. Almost every time

So, how does having 9 out of 12 people being town mean there's almost a 50% chance like you said in comment 188?

I know me grey parrot and disc are town Nd by the end of the dp I will move more into town or scum blocks. 50% is a conservative estimate. When it is said and done the true likelihood of hitting scum will probably be above 75.65% 

Well, we'll see. Maybe before the end of DP1 I might change my vote. 

I am not saying that we have to lynch someone right now - there is still time for that later - but you should at least scum hunt.

You know, play the game you signed up for.

Let me put it like this...

Scenario One:

9 Town 3 Scum

VTNL/NK

8 Town 3 Scum

VTNL/NK

7 Town 3 Scum

VTNL/NK

6 Town 3 Scum

VTNL/NK

5 Town 3 Scum

VTNL/NK

4 Town 3 Scum

VTNL/NK

3 Town 3 Scum

Scum win

Scenario Two:

9 Town 3 Scum

Mislynch/NK

7 Town 3 scum

Mislynch/NK

5 Town 3 Scum

Mislynch/NK

3 Town 3 Scum

Scum win

Scenario Three:

9 Town 3 Scum

Lynch/NK

8 Town 2 scum

Lynch/NK

7 Town 1 scum

Lynch/NK

6 Town 0 Scum

Town win

It should be clear that unless you are scum Scenario one and two should be avoided. How do we avoid scenario one? By lynching. How do we avoid scenario two? By trying to figure out who is scum (that is what the word scumhunting means) so that we know who to lynch and who not to. How do we scumhunt? By having conversations, generating behaviors, and actually playing the game.

By refusing to scumhunt (in other words, to try to figure out who is town and who is scum) you are encouraging a scenario one or two, in other words a scenario in which scum win.

I am legitimately having trouble figuring out why this needed to be spelled out in this way. What is so hard about this?

If you refuse to play then there is no way for me to tell whether you are town or scum, but if you are scum I want you dead and if you are town but refuse to scumhunt then you are useless to me.

Start playing the game and I will consider unvoting.

I'm not even suggesting scenario 1, I merely want a VTNL for DP1 and each round after we can start VTL'ing people. What makes you think I'm not playing just because I want to VTNL? I've said much so far, and I've been reading through the comments. VTNL, in no way, means that I'm not trying to figure out who is who.

I just recognize that choosing to VTL has a higher likelihood of getting someone who is on the town side. The town always has more people on it than scums. The chances are, we will be helping scums. 

If everyone here has read through the suggestions of game play, strategy, or are simply good with the game, they may be specifically trying different soft claims and strategies to indicate they are on one team or another.

There's literally no reason for me to suspect any particular person is or isn't town, unless I'm mafia, of course. Regardless, it's both smart for mafia and the town to VTNL.

Due to there's a higher chance a town member will VTL a fellow town member, they have no reason to do this right now. As for the mafia, it's not a good idea for them to VTL either given it makes one seem like Mafia.

You seem to be obviously outing yourself as mafia since only they would be interested in a VTL at this stage.

And yeah, DP1 is useful, as it brings out some claims upfront. But these claims are useless until we have more info(again, unless I or you are scum)

But yeah, if you carefully analyze what I've said so far, I definitely have soft claims going on here. So, you are quite plainly either lying and trying to make people think I've not given much info, or you're not very good at recognizing what I've said so far as helping progress the game.

Furthermore, I want to speak more about those scenarios. Mafia almost never ends up exactly like any of those scenarios. No smart group would continually Lynch or choose not to lynch in each DP. It's far too risky to do that. It's best to do a combination strategy that doesn't fit in either of those three scenarios you're oversimplifying Mafia to be about. 

Ok, so my character I should ironic because bsh seems to like mine more than y’all based on the message lol, especially since I’m a child I got chills a little xD

is ironic*

I'm pretty sure I know your role, only because mine can't exist without yours (it technically can but it makes no balance sense)

So I either know yours or someone else's

So is yours "C"?

If you are what I think you are, you should understand that in the context of your character

I have SAT today so I won't be on until much later guys

Not sure why CC thinks you can't hunt behaviorally. In fact it is really the only way you should scum hunt because tiles are not trustworthy. 

I am not hinting at my role.