Finally at a computer to respond.
Change in behavior =/= scum. Especially when the person in question only has a couple of games under their belt and has only ever been one affiliation. People can change their behavior for many many different reasons. Yes, affiliation can change behavior. So can role. So can theme. So can not getting enough fiber in your diet. Maybe he had surgery and was on pain killers. Maybe it's mid terms. Maybe he's been practicing for the big game. You gotta do more leg work than "He play not same, he not town."
No one was actually lynched for change in behavior. It was one of the reasons I pressured AROSE yes, but even I admitted this was my first game with him, and I was basing that off of reading two other town games of his. I realize people can change their play style at any point, I change mine up all the time as well. But this change was recent and it was in spite of his own words in the sign up threads. I wouldn't have lynched him on that alone, the reason he almost got lynched day phase 1 is because he decided not to even try and defend himself or give any explanation. We never used to tolerate that on DDO, people playing stubborn like that got lynched, and often were scum. I could have easily been convinced off of AROSE if he had even bothered to try and defend himself. That said, I didn't tunnel him for that logic. My push for his lynch was more to give a better option to a weakly supported lynch on SA due to bandwagoning. Yes, I realize SA ended up being scum, but before I knew the game was full of a bunch of lazy band wagoners, I was looking for at least some supporting reasoning and there was barely any. Your participation on that lynch and being conveniently correct but using it as weight as if you actually knew he was scum made me suspicious of you. Turns out it was just your pompous arrogance in the end, and you weaponized that conveniently correct lynch with horrible support behind it to dis-credit me, which you are still doing lol. It's a joke.
Bussing is, in fact, rather uncommon. Mafia voting for mafia (when tallying end of day wagons) is rather uncommon. I've been collecting data based on Supa's archives. I know it isn't a lot right now, but I don't feel DDO data applies anymore. Too many new people and the meta is too different. But right now, the base chance of being mafia is around 25%. But if you look at all the wagons so far and pick a vote that was against a mafioso (at the end of the day), the odds it came from a mafioso is around 14%.
The problem with this data is how much you rely on it, and how much it actually misses context from specific games. You used this argument before with me when we were talking about statistics about games where it was better to mis-lynch then no lynch in DP1, and you were trying to demonstrate the stats of games won where there was mislynches on the first day, which ignored a lot of factors (factors like the number of games VTNL'ed in the first day phase was considerably lower than games where lynches occurred for example). Also I dis-agree that DDO data shouldn't apply to Dart. Most of the players on dart come from DDO, and those who haven't were taught how to play by people who are from DDO. Dart is literally an extension of DDO, with the majority of the membership stemming from DDO refugees. I agree the meta is different, it seems like the majority of people just bandwagon now, and barely put any effort it, but my bussing theory was directed at you, a player who has been around for all sorts of metas. I for some reason respected that your opinions would be based on better reasoning, considering early on in that DP you were doubting your read on SA. I guess in DP3, your tunnel on me was evidence I placed more stock in your play than it was worth. I just couldn't wrap my head around how you were so sure SA was scum when you barely backed up your reasons for his lynch and were hesitant early on. Bussing seemed like a likelier theory than you being a stubborn mule, but I guess it's been so long since I've played with you I've forgotten how stubborn you could be.
Oro's theory was objectively silly and an experienced mafia player like Lunatic should have recognized it as such.
I wasn't just buying into oro's blank statement, I had already had my reasons for suspecting you at that point. DP2 happened so fast I didn't get a chance to build my case on you yet.
I'll admit, my FOS of him lessened as the DP went on, because his duplicitous and juvenile behavior is identical to behavior that he has exhibited in the past, as Town, but by that point I was too riled up and irritated with his antics I just wanted to see him gone; alive he was just a distraction.
What do you mean "Juvenile behavior"? You mean trying to back up a my lynches with logic and reasoning unlike what you and the majority of the players do? I was a bit blunt with wylted, but he said in DP1 that sugar coating how we talk to someone is the equivalent of lying, so I spoke to him unfiltered because that's how he seemed to be wanting to be spoken to.
Which proved to be true, as he distracted Town all the way to a Mafia victory, flushing a 2 lynch lead down the toilet.
Lol so why is this just on me? You realize the same thing happened in dark crystal right? Speed has the advantage at that point, being outnumbered almost works in the mafias favor. You like statistics so much, right? Here's some for you. After DP3 where you were lynched, there were 7 players left, with only one being scum. As a collective town had a 14% chance of correctly guessing who the correct scum is. 20% DP 5, 25% on DP6 because we VTNL'ed. Our odds of being correct on the last scum were much lower than being correct. It's easy to sit on your soap box and cast stones, but I would have genuinely have liked to see if you would have done any better. I would have loved to have been lynched in your stead DP3, so I could be in your position and blame the whole thing on you to be vindictive because I "lost" the 1 v 1 against you in DP3, but I probably wouldn't have done that. Now I want to just to show you how much of a hypocrite you are, which is the only reason I am signing up for DD's game.
