Speedrace - Quickfire Mafia - DP1

Author: Speedrace

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SirAnonymous
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@Barney
The most obvious point against SirAnonymous is his fake claim about being a PGO. We know it's fake because drafter visited him without dying. The best reason to fake claim PGO is if you don't want anyone visiting you at night, which is indicative of either mafia or hostile third-party. His claim about being an amnesiac does explain this, but only half-way. Amnesiacs don't have wincons, so it makes sense to pick a role that would convince people to leave you alone until you can get one and actually have a chance of winning. However, a PGO is a foolish claim for an amnesiac because it is so easily CC'ed if someone visited them. It would have been much smarter to pick a bomb, bulletproof, or deathproof, or a non-protective role that doesn't immediately scream "Don't kill me." 
The second point against SirAnonymous is the similarity between his play in this game and his mafia play in previous games. In all three, he chose to fake claim a non-visiting role, which makes it harder for anyone with an investigative role to prove him wrong. Also, as with the other two games, he has argued verbosely that he isn't scum. 
A third point against him is his failure to VTNL. If he is an amnesiac, then it would make sense for him to VTNL because he wouldn't want to risk the mafia dying before he has a wincon.
The only point I see in SirAnonymous's favor is his defense that it would be better to wait a round to lynch him, because then his affiliation will be certain. While this makes sense on the surface, it falls apart when examined. There is a third-party in the game. If he is scum, then his best chance is to beg for town to wait around. Then, a different lynch of someone not-third party would have to happen. After that, if the NK goes through, he would win because there would only be one town player left. This strategy fits in with his failure to VTNL.
This assumes he is scum. There is no proof that he isn't an amnesiac other than minor behavioral tells. Also, he could be a werewolf. However, if he's a werewolf, then both town and mafia should try to kill him. If he's an amnesiac, then he's expendable. Yes, it would be a mislynch, but better a mislynch and another chance at getting the mafia next round then risking him winning due to the above strategy. Sure, he would lose if he's a mislynched amnesiac, but that's not town's concern. It would be risky to let him live. The only downside to killing him is that, if he isn't scum, there would only be one round to find the mafia, which would be a serious disadvantage.

SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
@Barney
You're right. If I was you, I would absolutely lynch me right now, and then defend my choice in the endgame if proved to be wrong.
SirAnonymous
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*if it proved to be wrong.
SirAnonymous
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Well, VTNL. If you do decide to let me live (you won't regret it if you do), I don't want to be ejected for not voting.
Speedrace
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@SirAnonymous
If a demolitionist targets someone, does it replace their normal role for that night entirely, or can they still do their normal actions?
They can still do actions
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Vote Count

SirAnonymous - 2/3 - drafterman, Ragnar
VTNL - 1/3 - SirAnonymous
Not voting - ILikePie5, PressF4Respect

Warning: All players not voting at the end of the DP will be removed from the game.

SirAnonymous
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There goes my last chance of defense. I'm telling the truth, but I can't give you any reasons to believe me.
Barney
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@SirAnonymous
Thank you for taking the time to do that analysis.

SirAnonymous
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@Barney
You're welcome...I think.
SirAnonymous
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@Barney
If we're ever in another mafia game together and you want me to do an analysis like that, I'd be willing to do that.

drafterman
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@ILikePie5
@PressF4Respect
Your presence is requested.
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Or we could let them get modkilled, but then the mafia would win, unless one of them is mafia. Of course, I would lose either way, so I would prefer it if they showed up.
PressF4Respect
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@SirAnonymous
Just read the DP

So your only defense is that you aren’t scum, but you have no way of confirming that?
SirAnonymous
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@PressF4Respect
Pretty much, yeah. I've got nothing unless you let me live for one round, in which case I will be confirmed town. However, I can't give you any reasons to trust that other than my word.
SirAnonymous
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@Barney
@ILikePie5
@PressF4Respect
Do any of you have any results from the NP?
ILikePie5
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I got exams sorry
Speedrace
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Lunatic has replaced Pie
SirAnonymous
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@Speedrace
Only a madman would make such a decision. You must be insane. Why would would need a lunatic?




Oh, wait a minute. That kind of Lunatic.
Lunatic
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Ragnar's post 25 seems a bit opportunist, eager for a lynch. Drafter is probably town for catching the slip. I suppose we can let Sir live today and try to take the nurses role.

VTL Ragnar   
Speedrace
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@SirAnonymous
Lol at first I thought you were actually mad that I replaced him
SirAnonymous
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@Speedrace
Gotcha! No, I'm completely fine with Lunatic. I like both of them.

PressF4Respect
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If Sir is scum, then it will become obvious the next DP. If he isn’t, then we will be able to confirm 100% who scum is.
PressF4Respect
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Town basically wins if we VTNL

VTNL
SirAnonymous
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@PressF4Respect
If he isn’t, then we will be able to confirm 100% who scum is.
How so? If I don't get lynched and live to the next DP, how will we know who the scum is?

PressF4Respect
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@SirAnonymous
There’s a way
Barney
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@Lunatic
Someone says they're the PGO with zero reason to do so, it's a pretty clear choice what to do. Granted, Drafter could be some role that needs to lynch people, but we can't just not lynch people because it makes sense to do so.
Ragnar's post 25 seems a bit opportunist, eager for a lynch. Drafter is probably town for catching the slip. I suppose we can let Sir live today and try to take the nurses role.
You believe we should lynch people if they believe we should lynch confirmed fake PGOs... Noted.
Barney
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@PressF4Respect
Town basically wins if we VTNL
Would you mind explaining that? Especially given that there's a third party playing, and we don't know what it is.
Lunatic
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@Barney
He's un CC'ed third party, he's definitely not mafia. He could help town. If your argument was he was third party with negative intentions that would be another thing, latching on to him lying makes less sense.
PressF4Respect
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@Barney
Once we determine the relationships of the affiliations of each of the 4 remaining players (given that we VTNL today), scum would practically reveal themselves.
Barney
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@Lunatic
Yes, fake PGO claims do strike me as scum. How do you suppose that him lying proves he is third party as he claims?

If you really believed it, you could have VNTL by now, ending the day phase.