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@Lunatic
True that. We were locked in combat for a few pages
Arrowverse Mafia - DP1
Posts
Read-only
Total:
646
bandwagon vote from Skittlez because he hops on wagons on all of his votes
not true but aright
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@Vader
I read what his responses were as manufactured and not necessarily genuine
asked for you to elaborate earlier and ill ask again
what made my response "manufactured"
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@Lunatic
doing my best to catch up rn
no cap i get watchu were saying on that naruto mafia now about ppl bandwagoning an not giving good justifications
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@Vader
Why the sudden change of pace?
im trying to be more active an get better at mafia
I also said my reason of why I think his defense is manufactured.
post?
Really sounds like Speed meant to use Drafter's list, then realized he had drifted slightly off of it. So yeah, I believe Supa and Intelligence are a town pair.
Chris says he is going to make a bigger post in the morning, so no need to rush anything.
Unvote.
Chris says he is going to make a bigger post in the morning, so no need to rush anything.
So Chris is giving you updates where?
So Chris is giving you updates where?
i see it above.
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 (1/5)
MisterChris - SirAnonymous (1/5)
Got stuck pulling a double tonight, I'll be working til 4AM so I likely won't be on until late in the afternoon tomorrow, just in case anyone think I randomly got really quiet.
ay anyone here? be quick or else I will go to school in 830
With it being (probably) 7-2 then it is better to lynch (even random lynch) than it would be to NL. If we NL, then that puts us in line for MYLO, where we will most likely have to NL again, which is essentially giving the mafia free night kills.
VTL skittlez
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@skittlez09
Here's an example of you using WIFOM to try to analyze the game. This is somewhat scummy, but again, you seem to do it to a good extend. No offense but even I had a hard time truly understanding WIFOM when I first started. I find it difficult that would come up with this response without being manufactured
Pointing references to a wiki. The reply was posted 12:29PM CST when the response by Drafter was 12:28CST. There is no way that you looked at the Wiki for that short of time unless someone pasted a link to you, and even so, why look at the wiki for your own role? It clearly states what it is in the PM. I believe someone told you to site the wiki as a way to prove your points. I've never seen you reference a Wiki in my life
Reiteration, reiteration, reiteration. You usually don't keep repeating yourself and jumping to new ideas. You are very defensive here
Thoughts: If this a new attempt at trying to be better at mafia, hats off, but I can't believe it. I don't believe after 1 game you can change your playstyle so much. I also think you are posting so much because you have a buddy, not a group. Lurking is inherently sus, and you lurking will do nothing
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@Vader
Pointing references to a wiki. The reply was posted 12:29PM CST when the response by Drafter was 12:28CST. There is no way that you looked at the Wiki for that short of time unless someone pasted a link to you, and even so, why look at the wiki for your own role? It clearly states what it is in the PM. I believe someone told you to site the wiki as a way to prove your points. I've never seen you reference a Wiki in my life
He probably got it from me. I searched him up on Wiki in post 9 to verify his claim.
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman (2/5)
MisterChris - SirAnonymous (1/5)
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@Vader
Here's an example of you using WIFOM to try to analyze the game.
i didnt even know what WIFOM was until u mentioned it here
i was just saying what i thought i needed to say to prove my innocence
sorry but i just dont know what to tell ya u either believe me or u dont
There is no way that you looked at the Wiki for that short of time unless someone pasted a link to you, and even so, why look at the wiki for your own role?
I was looking at the wiki cuz i was confused of the role an how i should play it cuz normally i claim first thing
the wiki said to claim early an its reasoning made sense so thats what i did
. I've never seen you reference a Wiki in my life
First time for everything i guess
Thoughts: If this a new attempt at trying to be better at mafia, hats off, but I can't believe it. I don't believe after 1 game you can change your playstyle so much
all ive been doing is trying to be more active an think about what i say before i say it
call it lies but its the real deal g
Lurking is inherently sus, and you lurking will do nothing
aint tryna lurk im just outside alot during the day
ARROWVERSE MAFIA - DAY 1 - 9/22/2020 11:00 AM
- Skittlez immediately reveals he is in fact Savitar.
“hi im savitar an ive killed lots of people but deep down im just a broken guy who nobody understands. Therefore im a miller if im investigated at night ill flip guilty. I am town.”
EVIDENCE FOR:
I say:
“it lines up:"As a time remnant of Barry Allen, he was originally just as well-meaning and heroic as his other counterparts. Upon being driven away from his friends and family, derided as a "disposable hero", he decided to cope with his anguish by becoming the very monster that ruined his life, Savitar."
Skittlez says:
“Think bout it like this: millers cuz of their nature can cause a cop to prematurally out themselves by saying they got a guilty on me, revealing themselves to the mafia squad”
Ragnar says:
“I'm more likely to believe the character claim due to the no theme split.”
Skittlez says:
“i claim first dp yall should know that by now lmao”
Skittlez says:
“this wagon against me rn is pretty dumbanswer this, if i was scum why would i claim miller when its the scummiest role ever?Mafia woulda just claimed vanilla”
I say (in response to Drafterman):
“I'm not sure we can make that assumption. You're basically saying any notable trait = corresponding power role, and we just can't assume that because inevitably there will be those with character quirks and no power role.”
Lunatic says:
“Besides the time I claimed miller and got instantly CC'ed (yet still some how managed to pull it off for some reason) when is the last time you have seen someone on dart claim miller when they were scum? It's literally one of the ballsiest things to fake as scum, because most games tend to have them and it assumes there is a cop as a prime investigative role so there's a million ways it can backfire.All that aside, skittlez isn't big brained enough to pull off a dp1 miller claim. He is kind of like a more mild version of grey parrot, and frequently claims pretty early. I'll reconsider if he starts acting behaviorally scummy, but I do not see enough merit to lynch him because his description seems a little weird. And if it's because his character is "bad" we should discount that immediately, as the mod said there isn't a theme split.”
Lunatic says:
“Why exactly? I thought his defense of himself was pretty townie. Skittlez didn't even try to defend himself as scum in stormlight, but when I was on him for bandwagoning in naruto, it was like 99% of his posts were just to defend himself as town. Defensiveness for him is kind of a town tell.”
EVIDENCE AGAINST:
Ragnar says:
“However, as someone who dislikes Emo Barry (his ex-girlfriend didn't want to go poly, so he decides to murder her...) I think Skittlez09 is more likely an investigative role, given that he was largely defined by reading Barry's mind to know what he was doing.Also, no theme split. This intuitively harms the credibility of someone claiming to be a Miller for being a villain with a heart of gold.”
Drafterman says:
“Not sure about the show but in the comics he literat had a ninja cult. Lol”
Drafterman says:
“I'm not analyzing theme. I'm contrasting his role with the justification. My justification pretty much explicitly defines my role (I did X, therefore I am an X).His doesn't line up (He did X, therefore he is a Y)If his role says he kills, then I consider that a strong indicator that he is a killing role.”
Ragnar says:
“He's evil but with a heart of gold, doesn't hold to me since we can have villains be town and still be investigated as town. Further, the character isn't misunderstood, he went on a murder spree over being friend zoned by his ex; that people don't like him for that, doesn't mean he's misunderstood, it means he wants to whine about the consequences of people understanding him all too well.”
VERDICT: I’m inclined to believe Skittlez, but we should reserve the right to lynch if we have no other leads by the end of the day phase.
- Intelligence notably immediately jumps on board a Skittlez lynch.
Upon being called out, he says:
“So basically what happened is that I tried to VTL skittlez first and somehow, when I was wandering, drafterman or someone posted the exact same vtl. It is no wagon at all. Coincidence yes.”
- Intelligence also tries to expose Drafterman.
“Drafterman is a doublevoter. when him and I voted for skittlez it shows 3/5.”
VERDICT: Slight scum read, or a bad townie. Leaning the latter due to Supadudz.
- Drafterman released pressure on Skittlez after Lunatic’s post, claiming the main purpose was information gathering.
Supa seems to believe him:
“I lean town on Drafter. He hasn't played in games with Intel, Chris, so he has no idea how to analyze their behaviors. He is using his own logic with metas to determine how to think, which leads me to believe that he is a town.”
Lunatic is more skeptical:
“Idk, you are kind of hard to read. I know you've done reaction testing in the past, but I also have seen you latch on to simple things and stick with them for an entire phase. I didn't scum read it, but if I see flawed logic I will call it out.”
- Drafterman admits he would hammer anyone.
“Put him at L-1 and see if I don't hammer.In fact, I'll hammer the first person to get to L-1 (that isnt me)”
VERDICT: Drafterman is a slight scum read.
- Ragnar & Supa both come up with detailed analyses.
VERDICT: Currently town reads.
- Supa comes out in defense of Intelligence, says:
“Intelligence is town. I am his lover.I know I'm gonna die and his bad behavior is gonna get us killed. Here is the claim. I am Martin Stein. I am intertwined with Ronnie Raymond after being combined by an accelerator”
Drafterman rips into the idea:
“Intel and Supa as town lovers is interesting and essentially gives Mafia a free kill/mislynch. It's pretty hard to protect since it's unlikely you'll be able to protect both at the same time.If both are Town, I question Supa's decision to out it so soon. Intel wasn't anywhere near being lynched and this was clearly a knee jerk reaction.I doubt they are both Scum, so rule that out.I don't rule out Supa being a third party and Intel being town or scum. That would put an interesting twist on Supa's play strategy as he only cares about Intel survive, not whether Intel (or his faction wins). Though if Intel is scum it essentially gives them an extra partner as Supa would always be disinclined to let him get lynched meaning Supa can't joint with the Town. Whereas if Intel is Town, Supa can joint with either fact since Mafia doesn't need to kill all townies to win. There is a scenario where it's Intel + Supa + 2 Mafia and Mafia and a Third Party Lover joints. Though that's not a configuration I'd expect to see here.There is the option that they are both Third Party, essentially joint Survivors. They joint with whoever else wins so long as both survive the game.5 town 2 thirds and 2 maf is feasible.But ultimately I have the same problem as I do with the miller claim. It's a claim whose purpose is to deter people from testing it. "Oh no, don't investigate me, I'm the miller. Tee hee.""On no, don't lynch him, we're town lovers and we'll both die. Tee hee."”
VERDICT: I lean towards believing him. Intelligence has not said otherwise.
- Lunatic favors a no vote currently:
“Well we have 3 claims in day one. This gives mafia a lot of POE to work with. Not even sure what to do at this point. No one likes VTNL's but if we pressure someone else and they end up claiming something we believe it just narrows down the pool for scum finding power roles further.I am leaning a VTNL, of course we can use up the rest of the time in the phase, and I am open to hearing arguments against it.”
VERDICT: Slight town read on Lunatic.
- Sir rules no lynch on Skittlez.
VERDICT: Slight town read on Sir.
- Oromagi confirms that he is indeed my husband.
VERDICT: Null so far.
- A combination of users misinterpret my inactivity as deliberate.
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@MisterChris
Good write up. Now lynch skittlez.
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@drafterman
Eh, not so fast. I want to at least give it until the end of today.
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@MisterChris
if u were to vote for someone who'd u vote for?
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@skittlez09
With a gun to my head? You. I want to give it more time, though.
TOWN Claim Role
3. oromagi . .
8. SirAnonymous .
6. Lunatic .
7. MisterChris .
2. drafterman .
SCUM
UVC
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman (2/5)
MisterChris - SirAnonymous (1/5)
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@drafterman
Concerning lynch vs. no lynch, we need to remember that there are lovers in the game. If we lynch someone and the mafia shoots the lovers, it will be 4v2 next DP. Thus, lynching sets up MYLO, whereas a no lynch sets us up for LYLO. I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch someone, but I don't think a random lynch would help us.
Current reads so far
drafterman - havent played with him much but i townread him cuz of that experiment he was tryna do. Makes no sense for scum to pull an experiment like that. Hell of a gambit id say.
oromagi - pretty weird behavior for him hes usually way more active. For now its null
Intelligence_06 - very lurky, jumped on a bandwagon against me, an didnt give any justification for his vote whatsoever.
Lunatic - townread him ive had lunatic in a game or two an this is pretty typical Lunatic behavior.
MisterChris - null too inactive
The rest im unsure of
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@SirAnonymous
If we lynch someone and the mafia shoots the lovers, it will be 4v2 next DP.
Exactly,
wouldnt surprise me if the people trying to get me lynched rn are in the scum team
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@SirAnonymous
That's a wild card for sure. And we really can't anticipate how that will go. If a protective role is on one but the other is killed, what happens? Are they even lovers? Are they even town sided? Will maf try and gamble killing them or save them for a potential mislynch based on the fact that maf hasn't tried killing them?
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@drafterman
That's a wild card for sure. And we really can't anticipate how that will go. If a protective role is on one but the other is killed, what happens? Are they even lovers? Are they even town sided? Will maf try and gamble killing them or save them for a potential mislynch based on the fact that maf hasn't tried killing them?
All good questions. I don't know the answers, although I can guess at the first one. In the Civil War mafia, Speed ruled that they would both die if one was shot and the other was protected. I would guess that the same applies here.
Now that I think about it, I'm not sure we can figure out what leads to MYLO and what leads to LYLO. If the mafia really want to get to MYLO, they can get there, and there's not a lot we can do about it except delay it by not lynching, which isn't a good strategy.
At least, not lynching isn't a good strategy if we do it every time.
essentially, we have two claims so far, MILLER and two LOVERs. Of these, I find MILLER more likely than LOVERs.
It seems like we have somebody claims MILLER DP1 fairly frequently in recent games. The fact that skit is following form only demonstrates that he's probably been paying more attention to games than he lets on.
The LOVERS claim is rarer and more suspicious.
- LOVERS can be TOWN, SCUM, or mixed. As drafter cautions, balance analysis mid-game is fraught but I still note that In a nine person role madness game, two TOWN lovers represent a vulnerable, unpowered quarter or even third. Two SCUM LOVERS seems even less likely- one lucky lynch on DP1 and the game might be over.
- But a TOWN/SCUM mix might make sense and certainly adds to the madness.
- But Supa explicitly says that his PM exonerates both him and Intel as TOWN. MafiaWiki suggests such disclosures are normal play.
- But why then would Supa FOS Intel in #105, 106. IF Supa is TOWN and knows for sure that Intel is town, he might defend him or he might stay quiet but why on earth would he be putting distance between them? Supa says, "major red flag" "slight scum read" and then an hour later he's saying he's my LOVER. A good TOWN player who wanted to preserve Intel might say "don't ask me why but I can vouch for Intel" or reveal nothing and argue Intel is TOWN but what possible advantage to TOWN could sus'ing Intel offer?
- perhaps because some LOVERS can have a TP wincon and Supa was thinking like SCUM?
Obviously, we don't have a lot of data yet and lynching an un-cc'd LOVER in DP1 would be mad but of the three claims so far I find Supa's least likely to be true. If the LOVERS survive NP1, I'm going to have a hard time reading them as TOWN.
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@oromagi
Why is it that if we suvives np1 it is less town? Do you kill two citizens or do you kill a governmental official if you want to effectively overthrow the regime?