Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?

Author: Slainte

Posts

Total: 86
Benjamin
Benjamin's avatar
Debates: 92
Posts: 828
4
7
10
Benjamin's avatar
Benjamin
4
7
10
Why do people who have questions about a vaccine get tagged as being anti-vaxxer?
Because they simply assume that every vaxine is equally good or bad, and that refusing to immidiately take one vaccine means you think every vaccine is bad. People don't get that "anti-vaccers" who have taken every other vaccine is concerned about problems specifically related to the corona vaccine. They don't get that medical proffesionals with no ties to clasical anti-vaccers have refused to take the new vaccines, or that there is a scientific debate regarding the morality of rushing out vaccines. 


In short, people are too stupid to see the difference between a conspiracy theory and intelectual discourse, so they just resolve to name calling.
zedvictor4
zedvictor4's avatar
Debates: 22
Posts: 11,269
3
3
6
zedvictor4's avatar
zedvictor4
3
3
6
-->
@Benjamin
Not sure about morality.


Should just be a balanced judgement about risk, relative to age and  fitness.

I am 61 but very fit, and hesitated for about 6 months, in order to assess the risk of serious side effects.

There appeared to be no serious side effects, other than a blood clotting issue in a minority group, which was soon identified. 


Anti-Vaxxers are a certain type of person whose judgements have a tendency to be somewhat skewed in favour of the irrational.

I don't want a vaccine because the Government has a depopulation agenda, type of thing.

Or the liberal lefties smuggled in fake votes from Central America....Get my drift Ben?


Ramshutu
Ramshutu's avatar
Debates: 43
Posts: 2,768
6
9
10
Ramshutu's avatar
Ramshutu
6
9
10
-->
@Slainte
Anti-vaxx and vaccine hesitant people ask the same questions : but the former often don’t ask the question in good faith or are not interested in listening to the answer. The question is often simply a canard or talking point used to sound reasonable.

I would class the difference between anti- and hesitant as those whom it is possible to convince with data, or science, and those who it is not. While I would class myself right now as vaccine hesitant with relation to my 1 and 4 year old daughters - as there is no safety data, I could be easily convinced when the data comes out.

For others, you're hesitant if you don’t understand the data, or have questions you haven’t heard the answer to; or are scared of the arm pain, fever, but could be talked into it - your anti-vax if you’ve made up your mind.

In terms of vocal debaters, arguers, etc that you will meet; the latter are louder and more vocal - but as the questions are the same it becomes easy to lump them together.



RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
Nope, Ramshutu has not correctly drawn the line. In fact, Underdog came closest in this thread to the line regarding Covid vaccine.
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
Covid vaccine is unique, stop pooling in anti-all-vaccine people with those skeptical specifically about Covid's origins and the vaccine(s) associated with it. China and the illuminati are involved, whether you believe it or not. 

This was an entirely intentional operation with every single death as direct blood on the CCP and Illuminati's hands. I don't say the vaccine itself is harmful but I sure as hell don't directly know the opposite. It is antiscientific for anyone to say they know yet just what happens further down the line, months and definitely years from now, regarding mRNA entering the body like that. For all we know Covid itself alters us once it's infected, permanently. We don't know what level of top secret science is involved and if we did it wouldn't be the level of science that would alarm us.

This is a weapon intended for assassinations in China that ended up used for a far more widespread outcome, I have no doubt at all that this was a prototype for biological warfare attacks in China that even if it was accidentally released to begin with in Wuhan, was intentionally covered up and allowed to spread internationally via the Chinese that unwittingly (or a few secret agents, knowingly) exported it.
ebuc
ebuc's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 4,269
3
2
4
ebuc's avatar
ebuc
3
2
4
-->
@RationalMadman
This was an entirely intentional operation with every single death as direct blood on the CCP and Illuminati's hands.

An which utube did you get this info from RMan? Or was it the Disney channel? 

..." Anderson said no one she knew at the Wuhan institute was ill toward the end of 2019. Moreover, there is a procedure for reporting symptoms that correspond with the pathogens handled in high-risk containment labs.
“If people were sick, I assume that I would have been sick—and I wasn’t,” she said. “I was tested for coronavirus in Singapore before I was vaccinated, and had never had it.” "...

..." Anderson was on the ground in Wuhan when experts believe the virus, now known as SARS-CoV-2, was beginning to spread. Daily visits for a period in late 2019 put her in close proximity to many others working at the 65-year-old research center. She was part of a group that gathered each morning at the Chinese Academy of Sciences to catch a bus that shuttled them to the institute about 20 miles away. "...

" The work of the lab and the director of its emerging infectious diseases section—Shi Zhengli, a long-time colleague of Anderson’s dubbed ‘Batwoman’ for her work hunting viruses in caves—is now shrouded in controversy. The U.S. has questioned the lab’s safety and alleged its scientists were engaged in contentious gain of function research that manipulated viruses in a manner that could have made them more dangerous. "...

whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
Setting aside the China, Illuminati and "top secret science" stuff, all of which is inherently unverifiable, I'm having a hard time understanding what makes many so nervous about the supposed long-term side-effects. We know how mRNA works. We know how cells process it, we know how long it stays in the body, we know how long its products stay in the body. Those are widely verified with this vaccine. So the question becomes: what could cause long term side effects? I'm honestly at a complete loss to determine what that is.

As for SARS-CoV-2 "alter[ing] us once it's infected, permanently", there is actual evidence that some people have long term harm that results from the virus, so wouldn't that be a reason to get vaccinated? The vaccine doesn't contain the virus, so it can't behave in the same way.

whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
Covid vaccine is unique, stop pooling in anti-all-vaccine people with those skeptical specifically about Covid's origins and the vaccine(s) associated with it.
At once, I understand that there's an important distinction here and I also think this only furthers Ramshutu's point.

You're right that it's a unique circumstance, but not for the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The question of where the virus originated has nothing to do with the method of prevention, and if it is somehow factoring into an individual's decision to get vaccinated, then that's an issue of not being able to compartmentalize these issues appropriately. You can believe that there's something fishy about the origins of the disease and still recognize that it's necessary to prevent it to the best of our ability. The only reasoning I can come up with that shows some cross-pollination between these ideas is that someone believes that the same people who supposedly unleashed the virus on the unsuspecting populace were also involved in developing the vaccine, which seems like flawed logic designed to find distrust in all scientists over a potential failure (I guess you could call it success if they actively tried to do it) of a few.

However, skepticism over the vaccine being put out there with limited testing seemed appropriate to some extent. I can at least understand why there was some hesitancy on the basis that the vaccine was approved via EUA, which did make it distinct from other vaccines. Given that it is also a new type of vaccine, it also has some unique elements in its design. That being said, I think that hesitation comes down to the same exact issues that you would see with other vaccines. You're putting some of them in your response here, including concerns about what else could be in these vaccines and general mistrust of what scientists are producing and encouraging billions of people to use. In that sense, the issues are virtually identical to other vaccines, as they come down to basic trust in the scientists producing them. Particularly when that lack of trust is juxtaposed with a common theme of dismissiveness about the effects of the virus, it's interesting to see what people trust in the face of active outbreaks. 
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
Since I am aware that between getting full-blown Covid and getting a vaccine, the former has guaranteed suffering and even lethality for some, I will agree that being publicly pro-vaccine is the stance all governments are correct to take at this point. That is, of course, by design and inevitable.

The vaccine is a necessary risk for anyone who is particularly elderly, can't afford to take days off of work for being sick or is one of the lung/heart etc condition groups that can't risk getting covid because they really probably will die from it. For everyone else, especially schoolchildren, I loathe, literally abhor, the pro-vaccine stance being taken regarding them. They don't die from it, clearly the psychopaths who designed this virus didn't want to kill them (there's never ever been a virus that is so gentle on youth while simultaneously being so brutal on the elderly, proportional to age in how harsh it attacks). 

I know that I need to be careful what I type on this matter. I am aware of that. 

I am very clear in my stance. I believe even Covid itself may be what people are saying that the vaccine is, in other words the depopulation conspiracy theory of how vaccines are reducing potency of sperm in males or whatever, may actually be what Covid itself has done. There's many signs so far that Covid uniquely has 'aftereffect' damage to a person's wellbeing and organs, unlike any virus seen before its effects seem to harm you post-battling it.

The non-mRNA vaccine is using Covid virus in a dormant form, so in fact that may end up being the more harmful one if this is the case.
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
For everyone else, especially schoolchildren, I loathe, literally abhor, the pro-vaccine stance being taken regarding them. They don't die from it, clearly the psychopaths who designed this virus didn't want to kill them (there's never ever been a virus that is so gentle on youth while simultaneously being so brutal on the elderly, proportional to age in how harsh it attacks). 
This is the only part of your post that I disagree with. Especially given that you apparently understand the risk to other populations, it's surprising that you take such a strong stance against vaccinating school children when those very same children would keep viral populations alive and thriving, from whom this disease can continue to perpetuate and evolve as it spreads back into more vulnerable populations. As for risks to the children themselves, while it is rare for a child to die of COVID-19, that that risk is still substantially higher than anything posed by the vaccine, and the risk of hospitalization far higher than that.

Also, I disagree that "there's never ever been a virus that is so gentle on youth while simultaneously being so brutal on the elderly" - youthful populations tend to have far stronger immune responses than the elderly, and that yields a lot of diseases that cause far more harm among the elderly than among youthful populations.
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
The vulnerable are responsible for taking the vaccines or not, not the children.

I was pro-isolation for schoolchildren before the vaccines existed exactly because they could infect older people they live with. I understood that then. Now, if they infect someone living with them and that person suffers due to it as they're unvaccinated themselves, it's that person's fault not the child's.

The problem with your stance is you don't realise the risk vs reward here. We literally don't know wtf Pfizer/Moderna can do further down the line with mRNA aftereffects and we've already seen blood clotting and other issues associated with the covid-based vaccines.
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
youthful populations tend to have far stronger immune responses than the elderly, and that yields a lot of diseases that cause far more harm among the elderly than among youthful populations.
sure, they also suffer a lot due to that because their immune system fighting is what the symptoms are predominantly caused by (coughing and phlegm aren't the virus, it's your fighting of it, as is the fever).
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
The vulnerable are responsible for taking the vaccines or not, not the children.

I was pro-isolation for schoolchildren before the vaccines existed exactly because they could infect older people they live with. I understood that then. Now, if they infect someone living with them and that person suffers due to it as they're unvaccinated themselves, it's that person's fault not the child's.

The problem with your stance is you don't realise the risk vs reward here. We literally don't know wtf Pfizer/Moderna can do further down the line with mRNA aftereffects and we've already seen blood clotting and other issues associated with the covid-based vaccines.
It strikes me that we're arguing two different things. The vulnerable should take vaccines. The vulnerable are not and cannot be fully protected by vaccines, with or without boosters. Breakthrough cases happen. Vaccination failing to produce strong immune responses happen. Variants, particularly ones that produce larger amounts of virus or increased virulence factors, happen. It is not beyond the realm of plausibility for the virus to develop in such a way that it makes children more vulnerable, and nor is it implausible for the virus to completely escape vaccination-derived immune responses, particularly given a high enough incidence rate. Reducing that incidence rate by reducing the number of people who get infected is an important step in preventing either of those outcomes, and while you could argue that some mutation is inevitable, I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to argue that that inevitability means that we should ignore opportunities to restrict it by restricting cases.

As for the risk vs reward situation, I disagree that there's substantial reason to be concerned over the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines and their long-term side effects. The blood clotting has not been linked to either vaccine, nor has there been any substantially dangerous vaccine side-effects linked to these vaccines. You can point to the shorter term pain and difficulties that some have experienced, but nothing deadly nor anything terribly risky aside from allergic reactions have happened. If we're concerned about longer term effects, then the long haul issues with COVID-19 are already becoming clear, whereas no such effects have been detected in patients receiving these vaccines, and there is no indication that such effects will be detected since all traces of the vaccine are gone from the bodies of people who have received the vaccinations. So far, the only longer haul explanation I've seen for why people might see side effects is the potential for autoimmunity in the generated antibodies, though to my knowledge, no cases of that happening exist.
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
I recommend researching what a vaccine does before telling me 'oh there will be a delta, episolon through to sigma and theta variant and we can't vaccinate against them all'. A vaccine is meant to prevent against the virus and how severely even the mutations can affect you because your body is prepped for the type of body/shape that the virus has (that's what immunity is based around). Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed and indeed it can hurt people after a while anyway as the white blood cells lose the shaping and memory of the previous virus after some time. There's no severe gain against the newer variants with vaccinating. This virus mutates extremely fast.

If new variants are inevitable and each seems to be gentle to the youth without severe underlying conditions, it implies we should only be pressuring adults to get vaccinated. Much more important than vaccination is practises/habits of people in their daily life and how they interact with surfaces and other people.

whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
I recommend researching what a vaccine does before telling me 'oh there will be a delta, episolon through to sigma and theta variant and we can't vaccinate against them all'. A vaccine is meant to prevent against the virus and how severely even the mutations can affect you because your body is prepped for the type of body/shape that the virus has (that's what immunity is based around).
A) I have a PhD in Microbiology with an emphasis in viruses. My thesis focused on mRNA expression and the negative effects that small RNAs can have on viral replication and activity in general. I could detail most if not all of the molecular mechanisms of the mRNA viruses from memory, including how the RNA gets into the cell, how protein is translated from it, where that protein goes, what immune responses it activates, and give you a rough timeframe of how long that immunity lasts. So yes, I know what a vaccine does. I know what RNA vaccines, specifically, do.

B) I don't appreciate your actively misrepresenting my point to suit your narrative, nor do I appreciate your misrepresenting the facts. There IS a Delta variant. There are many more variants that exist. The vaccine works against those variants. That does not mean that no variant will ever develop that could escape vaccination. Moreover, the Delta variant is actually demonstrative of a different way that variants can partially circumvent immunity: overwhelming numbers. The Delta variant produces titers much greater than other variants. Those can overwhelm immune responses and lead to active infections in patients who are vaccinated. These patients still tend to do much better than the unvaccinated even when they are infected, but that doesn't mean that a vaccinated individual is perfectly protected, which is particularly problematic for those with weak immune responses. 

Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed and indeed it can hurt people after a while anyway as the white blood cells lose the shaping and memory of the previous virus after some time. There's no severe gain against the newer variants with vaccinating. This virus mutates extremely fast.
I'm not sure what you mean that "nothing is guaranteed", but I agree with the rest of this... except the part about "los[ing] the shaping", which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. The vaccine works well against the new variants we've gotten so far, even with the fast mutation rate.

If new variants are inevitable and each seems to be gentle to the youth without severe underlying conditions, it implies we should only be pressuring adults to get vaccinated. Much more important than vaccination is practises/habits of people in their daily life and how they interact with surfaces and other people.
I would say that it's inevitable that there will be new variants. It is not at all certain that those variants will always be "gentle to the youth" or will be consistently and effectively targeted by the immune responses generated in response to the vaccines, and the more opportunities that we give this virus to mutate, the greater the odds that a mutation may actually cause great harm to children or circumvent immune responses.

I agree that our "practises/habits" with respect to preventing infections matter quite a bit, but a) not everyone is consistent in those and we shouldn't expect that they will be, meaning that the bad habits of a large number of actors can continue to keep the virus active and thriving in the population, b) this means that having good habits is not a guarantee of protection, since unless those habits involve distancing yourself from all human contact, it's virtually inevitable that you will come into contact with someone who has the virus and/or a surface on which it resides, and c) the vaccine provides a layer of protection that can provide protections to someone regardless of their habits - pointing out that you could also be doing something else doesn't tell me why this isn't valuable.

RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
 I don't appreciate your actively misrepresenting my point to suit your narrative, nor do I appreciate your misrepresenting the facts. 
I didn't misrespresent anything. You on the other hand have done precisely what you say I am doing to you, to me.

There will be many variants, if the vaccine is futile against them then it is futile to force on an age group that basically are de facto immune to it symptomatically to get vaccinated.
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
 The vaccine works well against the new variants we've gotten so far, even with the fast mutation rate.
Politicians disagree with you, they fancy reintroducing lockdowns due to the delta and future variants, a constant threat in the News.
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
I didn't misrespresent anything. You on the other hand have done precisely what you say I am doing to you, to me.
You did. I explained what you misrepresented. If I misrepresented something from what you said, point it out. 

There will be many variants, if the vaccine is futile against them then it is futile to force on an age group that basically are de facto immune to it symptomatically to get vaccinated.
Again, it's inevitable that there will be variants. It's not inevitable that the vaccine will be futile against them. That will become futile if we maintain a consistently large group of individuals who have limited or no protection against them because, eventually, variants will develop that can get around various barriers, including the immune responses of younger people (especially if they are the only population that are being consistently infected) and those who are vaccinated. And I think calling them "de facto immune" is pretty absurd. They are far less likely to get serious symptoms and die, though even that is not 100%. It can still get the virus. It can still replicate in them. It can still mutate in them. It can still spread from them. Vaccinated people can get the virus from them.

whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
Politicians disagree with you, they fancy reintroducing lockdowns due to the delta and future variants, a constant threat in the News.
That doesn't disagree with the statement you quoted. They're threatening to reintroduce lockdowns because the virus is not under control in those populations. The number of vaccinated in those areas hasn't reached herd immunity, so to claim that this is demonstrative of vaccine failure is absurd. It's demonstrative of what happens when vaccination rates stagnate, not of the existence of variants that the vaccines do not work against. Also, what politicians are doing in certain parts of the country doesn't tell me anything substantive except that SARS-CoV-2 is still very common and pushing for behavioral changes hasn't been effective. If anything, this just demonstrates a greater need for vaccination.
Athias
Athias's avatar
Debates: 20
Posts: 3,192
3
3
9
Athias's avatar
Athias
3
3
9
-->
@whiteflame
I agree that our "practises/habits" with respect to preventing infections matter quite a bit, but a) not everyone is consistent in those and we shouldn't expect that they will be, meaning that the bad habits of a large number of actors can continue to keep the virus active and thriving in the population, b) this means that having good habits is not a guarantee of protection,
Neither is a vaccine. The selling point of practicing, for example, good hygiene is that it's non-invasive, and its long-term effects aren't manipulated by political pandering.

I would say that it's inevitable that there will be new variants. It is not at all certain that those variants will always be "gentle to the youth" or will be consistently and effectively targeted by the immune responses generated in response to the vaccines, and the more opportunities that we give this virus to mutate, the greater the odds that a mutation may actually cause great harm to children or circumvent immune responses.
So, is it your argument that failure to receive an mRNA vaccine or some steroid-boosted vaccine is a cause of mutation? Please expand.

These patients still tend to do much better than the unvaccinated even when they are infected, but that doesn't mean that a vaccinated individual is perfectly protected, which is particularly problematic for those with weak immune responses. 
And this is based on what? That is, the tendency to "do much better" than the unvaccinated?

Vaccination failing to produce strong immune responses happen.
Yes, they do. As well as produce adverse effects which undermine the intent of one's inoculation. Hence, the argument "vaccination = health/protection" is one that has not been substantiated with sufficient controls.

I disagree that there's substantial reason to be concerned over the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines and their long-term side effects. The blood clotting has not been linked to either vaccine, nor has there been any substantially dangerous vaccine side-effects linked to these vaccines. You can point to the shorter term pain and difficulties that some have experienced, but nothing deadly nor anything terribly risky aside from allergic reactions have happened. If we're concerned about longer term effects, then the long haul issues with COVID-19 are already becoming clear, whereas no such effects have been detected in patients receiving these vaccines, and there is no indication that such effects will be detected since all traces of the vaccine are gone from the bodies of people who have received the vaccinations.
And this conclusion has been rendered after how many years of trials? How can one speak to "long-term" effects when trials which barely pass for rigorous have spanned only for a year and a half?

So far, the only longer haul explanation I've seen for why people might see side effects is the potential for autoimmunity in the generated antibodies, though to my knowledge, no cases of that happening exist.
Then I suggest researching further into the subject, and to pay particular mind to their methodologies and the limitations of their experiments/trials/studies etc. Most of the studies which state that the mRNA vaccines do not "seem" to produce autoimmune diseases are incredibly limited.
RationalMadman
RationalMadman's avatar
Debates: 564
Posts: 19,930
10
11
11
RationalMadman's avatar
RationalMadman
10
11
11
-->
@whiteflame
Everyone who reads this can see what you misrepresented. I will not get baited into something.

You accidentally misrepresented me just as it seems you think I did to you except you asserted intent. 

The first thing you misrepresented was that I don't know what mRNA is or does, it's something you have misrepresented throughout appealing to authority constantly (that authority being your actual self).

I don't need to respect or care about your PhD and achievements in mRNA research. You told me you research plants, not people. mRNA messing to colour a plant differently or manipulate its growth is fine because it's a plant. Once we get to animals and then humans it suddenly isn't so funny to say one is crazy to oppose the research or worry where it's headed.

You can deny what it's capable of, I know what it's capable of and am not misrepresenting you when I say that the skepticism about it is well-founded and the defense against it is extremely rhetoric and peer pressured amongst doctors and scientists. If you're in the field, you'd know what it's capable of. Do not downplay how much it can alter in DNA. Any article denying it can change DNA is lying. All of the journalists are delivering misinformation because they believe it's a greater good to defend the vaccine than admit the capabilities which may be a correct call to make but it absolutely can alter DNA, especially in a slight way that we'd not notice at first. mRNA is to cells what selecting 'yes' to 'allow this program to change my computer' is when you give a program administrator access to install it and/or update it.
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Athias
Neither is a vaccine. The selling point of practicing, for example, good hygiene is that it's non-invasive, and its long-term effects aren't manipulated by political pandering.
I didn't say that it was, though to say that the long term effects of vaccines are somehow manipulated by political pandering seems a bit odd. I have no problem with practicing good hygiene. I have a problem with the argument that vaccines should be a distant second to something that many individuals don't practice as well as they should.

So, is it your argument that failure to receive an mRNA vaccine or some steroid-boosted vaccine is a cause of mutation? Please expand.
Don't know what you mean by a "steroid-boosted vaccine", but my argument is that more infections = increased numbers of mutants. Fewer infections = fewer mutants. Vaccines reduce the number of total infections, their duration, and their spread.

And this is based on what? That is, the tendency to "do much better" than the unvaccinated?
Actual data? I'm not sure what you're asking here, but it's a pretty easily demonstrable fact that vaccinated people are less likely to get the virus, far less likely to be hospitalized if they do get it, and far far less likely to die if they get it.

Yes, they do. As well as produce adverse effects which undermine the intent of one's inoculation. Hence, the argument "vaccination = health/protection" is one that has not been substantiated with sufficient controls.
Mind detailing those adverse effects? A minority of cases in which the vaccine fails to elicit strong immune responses is not demonstrative of overall vaccination failure. Similarly, incidence of adverse effects does not "undermine the intent of one's inoculation", since in the vast majority of cases, even people who suffer from adverse effects are still protected. And I disagree wholeheartedly that "vaccination = health/protection" has not been substantiated by the data. With over a billion people vaccinated, there is more than sufficient data to make that conclusion, and I would argue that the studies undergone by the companies that produced these vaccines had sufficient controls to reach that conclusion.

And this conclusion has been rendered after how many years of trials? How can one speak to "long-term" effects when trials which barely pass for rigorous have spanned only for a year and a half?
You are more than welcome to discuss any data you've seen that indicates that the vaccine remains in the body beyond a few days after the administration of the vaccine. Yes, there isn't data for it because none of the vaccines have been around long enough to make those conclusions. That doesn't mean that there is good reason to suspect that such long-term effects are likely, or that they outstrip the long-term effects of the virus.

Then I suggest researching further into the subject, and to pay particular mind to their methodologies and the limitations of their experiments/trials/studies etc. Most of the studies which state that the mRNA vaccines do not "seem" to produce autoimmune diseases are incredibly limited.
I read quite a bit into the subject. I disagree that the research into it is "incredibly limited" and I disagree that there is something wrong with their methodologies. Not every study is perfect, but quite a few of them have demonstrated this very effectively from where I'm sitting. If you have data to the contrary, by all means, present it.
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@RationalMadman
The first thing you misrepresented was that I don't know what mRNA is or does, it's something you have misrepresented throughout appealing to authority constantly (that authority being your actual self).
I did not say that you don't know what mRNA does. Please, feel free to go back through any of these posts and find where I asserted anything with regards to your personal knowledge on the subject.

Meanwhile, you said:

I recommend researching what a vaccine does
That pretty clearly insinuated that I don't know what a vaccine does. I'm appealing to my extensive experience with virus research to show you that, yes, I am quite well read when it comes to how a vaccine works and why it is effective. I researched stuff like this over the course of an extensive PhD and have continued to read up on it as this new technology comes to the fore. So yes, when you say that I'm missing some research into the subject, it frustrates me a bit, especially when you don't present anything that indicates that I'm actually missing some pertinent information.

I don't need to respect or care about your PhD and achievements in mRNA research. You told me you research plants, not people. mRNA messing to colour a plant differently or manipulate its growth is fine because it's a plant. Once we get to animals and then humans it suddenly isn't so funny to say one is crazy to oppose the research or worry where it's headed.
You don't have to respect my work (though arguing that my doing it in plants somehow makes it invalid for me to apply it here is pretty ridiculous, especially since mRNA functions the same in plants and animals). I'm not expecting you to do so. At the same time, it would be great if you could treat me as someone who actually has done the research and disagree with me on the substance of it instead of telling me to do more research. If you want to argue that there are ethical issues at play, be my guest, but that's not what you were saying here.

You can deny what it's capable of, I know what it's capable of and am not misrepresenting you when I say that the skepticism about it is well-founded and the defense against it is extremely rhetoric and peer pressured amongst doctors and scientists. If you're in the field, you'd know what it's capable of. Do not downplay how much it can alter in DNA. Any article denying it can change DNA is lying. All of the journalists are delivering misinformation because they believe it's a greater good to defend the vaccine than admit the capabilities which may be a correct call to make but it absolutely can alter DNA, especially in a slight way that we'd not notice at first. mRNA is to cells what selecting 'yes' to 'allow this program to change my computer' is when you give a program administrator access to install it and/or update it.
It's fine to be skeptical. I didn't argue that skepticism of the vaccine is inherently problematic. I don't think what you've presented as skepticism is particularly well-founded, and that's why I posted in response to you in the first place. So, yes, I will deny that it can alter DNA because that's not what mRNA does. You can say it's lying, but that's basic molecular biology, dude. We've had this discussion before, and you dropped off after I presented responses to you. As for what mRNA does, I'd say that characterization is only partly accurate. Changes from mRNA are inherently impermanent. That's part of what makes them a really good choice for expression work. To argue that these molecules can make permanent changes flies in the face of what I know them to be capable of doing.

Athias
Athias's avatar
Debates: 20
Posts: 3,192
3
3
9
Athias's avatar
Athias
3
3
9
-->
@whiteflame
I didn't say that it was, though to say that the long term effects of vaccines are somehow manipulated by political pandering seems a bit odd.
How is it odd? I'll ask what I asked earlier: how can one speak to "long term" when the spans of trials have been limited at best?

I have no problem with practicing good hygiene. I have a problem with the argument that vaccines should be a distant second to something that many individuals don't practice as well as they should.
Would it not then be more prudent to promote good hygiene as was done earlier during this "pandemic" (which by the way saw record lows in flu contractions) than to promote the administration of a vaccine--which will virtually be mandated--the long-term effects of which have not been ascertained?

Don't know what you mean by a "steroid-boosted vaccine", but my argument is that more infections = increased numbers of mutants. Fewer infections = fewer mutants. Vaccines reduce the number of total infections, their duration, and their spread.
By steroid boosted vaccines, I'm referring to the corticosteriod that is claimed to boost the efficacy of the mRNA vaccines. And if fewer infections lead to fewer number of mutants, then vaccines aren't necessary, correct? One could apply what has been consistently the primary counter to the spread and contraction of infection, which is good hygiene, correct?

Actual data?
What data?

I'm not sure what you're asking here, but it's a pretty easily demonstrable fact that vaccinated people are less likely to get the virus, far less likely to be hospitalized if they do get it, and far far less likely to die if they get it.
Then either demonstrate yourself, or make reference to this demonstration that the vaccinated are less likely to contract the virus, far less likely to be hospitalized if they do get it, and far less likely to die after contraction.

Mind detailing those adverse effects?
This reference should suffice:

A minority of cases in which the vaccine fails to elicit strong immune responses is not demonstrative of overall vaccination failure
I'm not suggesting that this demonstrative of vaccination "failure." Only that the argument  "vaccine = health/protection" has not provided sufficient controls, especially considering that there have been a number of people who have died immediately after vaccination.

Similarly, incidence of adverse effects does not "undermine the intent of one's inoculation", since in the vast majority of cases, even people who suffer from adverse effects are still protected. And I disagree wholeheartedly that "vaccination = health/protection" has not been substantiated by the data. With over a billion people vaccinated, there is more than sufficient data to make that conclusion, and I would argue that the studies undergone by the companies that produced these vaccines had sufficient controls to reach that conclusion.
No they don't. Because there's one thing that the data can never prove: vaccination works. In order for a study to prove vaccination works, it would have to control for the survival and death as a result of the COVID-19 virus within the same sample. The data that both you and I have presumably seen do nothing more than produce ecological inference and post hoc fallacy arguments. That is, it renders conclusions both after the fact, and based on observations of other people. Those fallacious arguments are not based on sufficient controls.

You are more than welcome to discuss any data you've seen that indicates that the vaccine remains in the body beyond a few days after the administration of the vaccine.
Why would I discuss an argument I did not make?

Yes, there isn't data for it because none of the vaccines have been around long enough to make those conclusions. That doesn't mean that there is good reason to suspect that such long-term effects are likely, or that they outstrip the long-term effects of the virus.
And why is there no good reason when the scope of the data doesn't capture the long-term?

I read quite a bit into the subject. I disagree that the research into it is "incredibly limited" and I disagree that there is something wrong with their methodologies. Not every study is perfect, but quite a few of them have demonstrated this very effectively from where I'm sitting.
But they are incredibly limited, and part of that is by reason of the limitation of the trials, which the CDC had set for the two years. And two years has not passed since the beginning of these trials. We just passed one year a couple of months ago.

I'm not against vaccination, believe it or not. I am however against this COVID-19 vaccination and its variants. Its spread and the promotion of its vaccination are far too suspicious especially considering that patents for the coronavirus span as far back as 1984 (and this is verifiable.)
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Athias
How is it odd? I'll ask what I asked earlier: how can one speak to "long term" when the spans of trials have been limited at best?
It's odd because political pandering doesn't modify the long term effects of the vaccine. As for speaking to those effects, as I already said, there can't have been studies going on for long enough to make that possible, but that doesn't mean that there's substantive reasons to be concerned.

Would it not then be more prudent to promote good hygiene as was done earlier during this "pandemic" (which by the way saw record lows in flu contractions) than to promote the administration of a vaccine--which will virtually be mandated--the long-term effects of which have not been ascertained?
I don't think it has to be one or the other. You can disagree with the mandate if you wish, I'm not going to argue that, but I don't think there's substantive reasons to be concerned about the long-term effects of the vaccine, and I also don't see efforts to push people to be more hygienic as sufficient to quell the pandemic on their own.

By steroid boosted vaccines, I'm referring to the corticosteriod that is claimed to boost the efficacy of the mRNA vaccines. And if fewer infections lead to fewer number of mutants, then vaccines aren't necessary, correct? One could apply what has been consistently the primary counter to the spread and contraction of infection, which is good hygiene, correct?
Alright, thanks for the clarity. I'm not sure how you derive that conclusion from my statement about fewer infections leading to fewer mutants. Again, I see supporting improved hygiene as additive to supporting more widespread vaccination.

What data?
This, as a start.

It doesn't mention the coronavirus vaccines. I'm not doubting that there are adverse events that occur with vaccines, though I'll also note that the vast majority of what's listed here happens within a 30 day period. That's generally because vaccines tend to last in the body for a short time before being eliminated. I mentioned that later because I feel that if you're going to argue that there are major long-term concerns regarding adverse events, then there should rationally be some basis for that belief, as opposed to just a statement that we cannot know yet.

I'm not suggesting that this demonstrative of vaccination "failure." Only that the argument  "vaccine = health/protection" has not provided sufficient controls, especially considering that there have been a number of people who have died immediately after vaccination.
Haven't seen evidence of what you've bolded here, at least not with these vaccines. Maybe you're talking about the broader set of all vaccines, but I'd rather keep this focused on this set for now if you don't mind. 

No they don't. Because there's one thing that the data can never prove: vaccination works. In order for a study to prove vaccination works, it would have to control for the survival and death as a result of the COVID-19 virus within the same sample. The data that both you and I have presumably seen do nothing more than produce ecological inference and post hoc fallacy arguments. That is, it renders conclusions both after the fact, and based on observations of other people. Those fallacious arguments are not based on sufficient controls.
If you think the data is fallacious, then I don't see us having a friendly discussion over this. You can argue that the kinds of studies that they can do are limited, which is partially true because they cannot actively challenge vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with the virus to see what happens. That being said, they can actively monitor the differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in terms of antibody production, incidence of illness, severity of illness, and numerous other factors. It's never going to be perfectly controlled, but that doesn't mean that the studies are functionally worthless and in no way demonstrate any effectiveness of vaccination. The vaccination of large populations produces some pretty impressive datasets that can be used to make the case as well. If you don't agree, I guess that's your opinion, but this is a pretty hard line of difference between us if so.

But they are incredibly limited, and part of that is by reason of the limitation of the trials, which the CDC had set for the two years. And two years has not passed since the beginning of these trials. We just passed one year a couple of months ago.
It strikes me that that two year timeframe was pretty arbitrary to begin with. You can argue that they haven't met it anyway, but I'm not clear on why that specific length of time is what makes the data sufficient, especially if you're talking about long-term data.

I'm not against vaccination, believe it or not. I am however against this COVID-19 vaccination and its variants. Its spread and the promotion of its vaccination are far too suspicious especially considering that patents for the coronavirus span as far back as 1984 (and this is verifiable.)
Well, I disagree on multiple fronts, but your suspicions aren't actually verifiable. I'm not sure what patents you're talking about, or why they're relevant here, but it seems to me that when you're dealing with a pandemic, particularly one responsible for as many deaths as this one, responding with vaccination on a wide scale seems entirely appropriate.
Athias
Athias's avatar
Debates: 20
Posts: 3,192
3
3
9
Athias's avatar
Athias
3
3
9
-->
@whiteflame
It's odd because political pandering doesn't modify the long term effects of the vaccine. As for speaking to those effects, as I already said, there can't have been studies going on for long enough to make that possible, but that doesn't mean that there's substantive reasons to be concerned.
That's my point, observations of the long-term effects cannot have been ascertained at this point in time, and the urgency of the vaccine's necessity is grossly exaggerated. 

I don't think it has to be one or the other. You can disagree with the mandate if you wish, I'm not going to argue that, but I don't think there's substantive reasons to be concerned about the long-term effects of the vaccine, and I also don't see efforts to push people to be more hygienic as sufficient to quell the pandemic on their own.
The mandate isn't just a subject of agreement; it's a matter of morality as well. Coercing the populace into taking a vaccine they have no intention of taking out of concerns which need only be valid to them is immoral. Arbitrarily deciding on which "religious exemption" suffices is the prerogative of neither the State nor physicians' association.

I'm not sure how you derive that conclusion from my statement about fewer infections leading to fewer mutants. Again, I see supporting improved hygiene as additive to supporting more widespread vaccination.
Because good hygiene is still the primary countermeasure to the spread and contraction of infection, generally speaking. 

This, as a start.
Where in this reference is it expressed that the vaccinated have a tendency to do much better than the unvaccinated?

It doesn't mention the coronavirus vaccines.
It wasn't meant to. The reference was just a general overview of adverse effects with vaccination.

I mentioned that later because I feel that if you're going to argue that there are major long-term concerns regarding adverse events, then there should rationally be some basis for that belief, as opposed to just a statement that we cannot know yet.
That is a perfectly legitimate inquiry. We cannot know yet is double edged in that it modifies arguments both in favor and against the administration of this vaccine. One cannot expect conclusions about the long-term, when the long-term has not been observed or sufficiently mirrored.


Haven't seen evidence of what you've bolded here, at least not with these vaccines. Maybe you're talking about the broader set of all vaccines, but I'd rather keep this focused on this set for now if you don't mind. 
3RU7AL, some time ago, made reference to 23 patients having died short after receiving the vaccine:

3RU7AL:
Doctors in Norway have been told to conduct more thorough evaluations of very frail elderly patients in line to receive the Pfizer BioNTec vaccine against covid-19, following the deaths of 23 patients shortly after receiving the vaccine.

“It may be a coincidence, but we aren’t sure,” Steinar Madsen, medical director of the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NOMA), told The BMJ. “There is no certain connection between these deaths and the vaccine.”

The agency has investigated 13 of the deaths so far and concluded that common adverse reactions of mRNA vaccines, such as fever, nausea, and diarrhoea, may have contributed to fatal outcomes in some of the frail patients. [**]

This is another reference from when I was discussing the issue with DoubleR:

Of more than 18,000 people who died from COVID-19, for example, only about 150 were fully vaccinated. That's less than 1%.

Though this reference does not explicitly state this was a result of the vaccine.

If you think the data is fallacious, then I don't see us having a friendly discussion over this.
I don't think the data is fallacious. The conclusions drawn from the data are fallacious, specifically the ones I already mentioned.

You can argue that the kinds of studies that they can do are limited, which is partially true because they cannot actively challenge vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with the virus to see what happens.
Yes, exactly.

That being said, they can actively monitor the differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in terms of antibody production, incidence of illness, severity of illness, and numerous other factors. It's never going to be perfectly controlled, but that doesn't mean that the studies are functionally worthless and in no way demonstrate any effectiveness of vaccination.
None of which has anything to do with one's own individual health. And I'm not stating that these studies are "worthless," only the arguments based on these studies which propose logically inconsistent/fallacious reasoning.

The vaccination of large populations produces some pretty impressive datasets that can be used to make the case as well. If you don't agree, I guess that's your opinion, but this is a pretty hard line of difference between us if so.
The conclusions drawn for these data sets are made post hoc because as you and I have already mentioned, the observation of "challenging vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals" has not and cannot be produced. And that is not an opinion. Though, I do not deny that the lion's share of this discussion is opinion-based, these opinions are informed, as I would presume yours are.

It strikes me that that two year timeframe was pretty arbitrary to begin with.
Yes, agreed.

You can argue that they haven't met it anyway, but I'm not clear on why that specific length of time is what makes the data sufficient, especially if you're talking about long-term data.
My reference to the two year mark is intended to pile on to the notion of how novice and limited the conclusions have been. Vaccines typically undertake 10-15 years in trials, the length of which provides at least a medically sufficient basis to make conclusions about the "long-term." The CDC "expedited" this process and set a two year mark. It's been little more than a year, and demagogues have been either pandering or outright lying about a vaccine, the long term effects for which they could not have possibly ascertained.

Well, I disagree on multiple fronts, but your suspicions aren't actually verifiable.
No, the patents are verifiable.

I'm not sure what patents you're talking about,
They're in a government directory germane to patents.

or why they're relevant here,
A patented virus which causes a global pandemic isn't relevant?

but it seems to me that when you're dealing with a pandemic, particularly one responsible for as many deaths as this one, responding with vaccination on a wide scale seems entirely appropriate.
Responding with a vaccine if one elects to take is all well and good; directly or indirectly mandating the administration of this vaccine is not.
whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Athias
That's my point, observations of the long-term effects cannot have been ascertained at this point in time, and the urgency of the vaccine's necessity is grossly exaggerated. 
I agree with the former statement to a point. If the argument is that there could be long-term effects, then I'd like to know where those potential effects could be derived from if not the material from the vaccine or the resultant products of its expression.

As for the latter statement, I disagree. I guess it depends on how much you value of the lives lost in the process of trying to contain this pandemic, but from my perspective, its necessity isn't exaggerated.

The mandate isn't just a subject of agreement; it's a matter of morality as well. Coercing the populace into taking a vaccine they have no intention of taking out of concerns which need only be valid to them is immoral. Arbitrarily deciding on which "religious exemption" suffices is the prerogative of neither the State nor physicians' association.
I've got mixed feelings about the mandate, but suffice it to say that I don't see it as inherently immoral, particularly if it gives various exemptions. Not going to get into the morality of a mandate here, though.

Because good hygiene is still the primary countermeasure to the spread and contraction of infection, generally speaking. 
I think it could be the primary countermeasure, assuming that everyone behaves accordingly. It's extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't.

Where in this reference is it expressed that the vaccinated have a tendency to do much better than the unvaccinated?
In the hospitalization and death statistics. If they're getting hospitalized in far fewer numbers and dying in far fewer numbers than the unvaccinated, they tend to do much better than the unvaccinated.

That is a perfectly legitimate inquiry. We cannot know yet is double edged in that it modifies arguments both in favor and against the administration of this vaccine. One cannot expect conclusions about the long-term, when the long-term has not been observed or sufficiently mirrored.
The difference here is that your argument is based in the view that there could be something that happens in the long term, but lacks any analysis of the vaccine or other vaccines that provides a meaningful basis for believing that such long terms effects are more than just faint possibilities. It's possible, I grant that, but I don't grant the plausibility of long-term harms because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine and its product.


There was a bit of a fact check by Reuters on this one. Apparently, no causal link between their vaccinations and their deaths were discovered. Also, considering the already substantial death toll among the elderly in nursing homes (an estimated 45 each day), attributing these deaths to vaccination solely because they happened to receive the vaccine the day they died is a bit problematic.


This is another reference from when I was discussing the issue with DoubleR:

Of more than 18,000 people who died from COVID-19, for example, only about 150 were fully vaccinated. That's less than 1%.
My argument wasn't that the vaccine affords absolute protection from death, though I think these numbers are similar to those in my link. Saying that they aren't attributable to the vaccine only begs the question of what you could attribute this high survival rate to among the vaccinated population.

I don't think the data is fallacious. The conclusions drawn from the data are fallacious, specifically the ones I already mentioned.
Pretty thoroughly disagree with you there. The lack of direct data doesn't mean that every conclusion that can be drawn is inherently fallacious. You can argue that it's not as good as a direct study, but given that such a study would be inherently unethical and that this data still provides clear trends that can be used to make strong correlative conclusions that repeat with subsequent studies, I would say that they are not inherently fallacious. It might be if you took one study out of context and said that correlation = causation, but that's not what is happening here.

None of which has anything to do with one's own individual health. And I'm not stating that these studies are "worthless," only the arguments based on these studies which propose logically inconsistent/fallacious reasoning.
...I'm sorry, does antibody production have nothing to do with individual health? We can look at individual patients and monitor differences between a vaccinated and unvaccinated person in terms of what they produce with regards to immune defenses and provide a pretty clear picture of how they're likely to respond to the virus. There is always going to be variation in how people respond to the virus, but having a head start on an immune response provides a pretty clear picture of how likely they are to mount a strong immune response to the virus before it has time to replicate and spread.

My reference to the two year mark is intended to pile on to the notion of how novice and limited the conclusions have been. Vaccines typically undertake 10-15 years in trials, the length of which provides at least a medically sufficient basis to make conclusions about the "long-term." The CDC "expedited" this process and set a two year mark. It's been little more than a year, and demagogues have been either pandering or outright lying about a vaccine, the long term effects for which they could not have possibly ascertained.
I'd say that the rushed schedule was justifiable given the existence of the ongoing and, in some cases, worsening pandemic. I'd also say that a lot of the studies were done before this that paved the way for these to be produced in both a safe and efficacious manner. You clearly don't agree with either assessment.

No, the patents are verifiable.
Yes, it's verifiable that they exist. It's not verifiable that their existence is meaningful.

A patented virus which causes a global pandemic isn't relevant?
Again, would really love to see that patented virus. I haven't been able to find it. Assuming that it was patented, I'd like to see some evidence that it's the same coronavirus. Coronaviruses existed before the patent, they existed afterward, and they have been worked on in many labs. If you can provide some link between that patented virus (not really sure it exists, but I'll assume it does) and the current pandemic, be my guest.

Athias
Athias's avatar
Debates: 20
Posts: 3,192
3
3
9
Athias's avatar
Athias
3
3
9
-->
@whiteflame
I agree with the former statement to a point. If the argument is that there could be long-term effects, then I'd like to know where those potential effects could be derived from if not the material from the vaccine or the resultant products of its expression.
What about the vaccine's function in "teaching" cells to produce covid spike proteins as means to develop an immune-response?

As for the latter statement, I disagree. I guess it depends on how much you value of the lives lost in the process of trying to contain this pandemic,
You're appealing to emotion; you can no more gauge the value I place on these lost lives anymore than I can yours. Hence, there's no point in bringing it up, especially considering the argument, "covid vaccine prevents covid death," hasn't been substantiated.

I've got mixed feelings about the mandate, but suffice it to say that I don't see it as inherently immoral, particularly if it gives various exemptions. Not going to get into the morality of a mandate here, though.
Arguing it's moral integrity depends on which moral philosophy we use as a metric. I am however certain that I can argue its immorality consistent with any metric that's worth while.

I think it could be the primary countermeasure, assuming that everyone behaves accordingly. It's extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't.
No, it is. The conditions you propose qualify this measure no more than it does the others. Here, for example: "vaccination 'could be' extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't." Good hygiene would still be the primary countermeasure.

In the hospitalization and death statistics. If they're getting hospitalized in far fewer numbers and dying in far fewer numbers than the unvaccinated, they tend to do much better than the unvaccinated.
Your conclusion from these statistics are based on a post hoc fallacy.  You're claiming an efficacy of vaccination simply by counting after the fact. In December of 2020, 336,802 were claimed to have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. Give or take, there are about 332,000,000 people in the United States. If we subtract the 2.8 million who were vaccinated at that point, then we'd have, give or take, 329,200,000. Now if we divide this number by the number of deaths in December of 2020, and multiply it by 100, then that is 0.102% of the unvaccinated who have succumbed to this virus. If we considered the amount of people who had remained hospitalized at that point, assuming they weren't vaccinated, then it would .0360% of the unvaccinated were hospitalized.

Now I had a discussion with DoubleR  in August on this very issue which expressed the stats as it concerned the unvacinnated:

You said half the population has been vaccinated and yet 99% of COVID-related deaths are among the un-vaccinated.  Let's for a moment indulge these statistics at face value. For example, the United States has a population over 330 million, about 210 million of which are adults. Thus far, there have been about 616,000 people who have died in the U.S. as a result of COVID--or so they state. 99% of that is 609, 840. According to the CDC, 165,637,566 people have been vaccinated which accounts for about 49.9 percent of the population. So, 50.1 of the unvaccinated would amount to 166,301,444. Now we take 609, 840 deaths of the unvaccinated, divide it by 166,301,444 of the un-vaccinated populace and multiply it by 100 to acquire the percentage. Do you know what that percentage is? 0.367%. Not even close to 1 percent. That means 99.633% of the un-vaccinated have survived after being exposed to this virus for almost two years.

Now there are studies that say that COVID deaths go as high as 900,000 in the U.S. Substitute this figure in the previous calculations and that would still mean that 99.464% of the un-vaccinated have survived after being exposed to this virus for almost two years. Your interpretation of your own statistics fail you, sir.
Now you can say that the number of deaths among the unvaccinated increased about 10 fold, but how much of that is due to increased prevalence of infection, and how much of that is by reason of a depleting unvaccinated populace? Every person who gets vaccinated subtracts the same number of those who are unvaccinated which affects the numbers whether they were at risk of succumbing to COVID-19 or not.

Now let's use current numbers. The CDC claims that 64.1% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine and that 55.1% are fully vaccinated. If we were to accept these figures, that would suggest that the population is now at 332,077,036. Now if we take 35.9% of this population, which represents those who haven't received a single dose, then that would amount to 119,215,656 unvaccinated people in the U.S. It's claimed that there are 685,000 deaths total from COVID-19, so assuming they were unvaccinated, that would suggest 0.574% of the unvaccinated have succumbed to this virus. That means that 99.426% of the unvaccinated have survived this pandemic in a span of almost two years without being vaccinated even when the numbers are skewed and misinterpreted.

Finally, let me ask you: does a 99.426% survival rate among the unvaccinated demand, require, necessitate, or even justify a mandate?

The difference here is that your argument is based in the view that there could be something that happens in the long term, but lacks any analysis of the vaccine or other vaccines that provides a meaningful basis for believing that such long terms effects are more than just faint possibilities. It's possible, I grant that, but I don't grant the plausibility of long-term harms because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine and its product.
I can no more assert that "such and such" effect will happen than you can assert that "such and such" effect won't happen because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine an its product.


There was a bit of a fact check by Reuters on this one. Apparently, no causal link between their vaccinations and their deaths were discovered. Also, considering the already substantial death toll among the elderly in nursing homes (an estimated 45 each day), attributing these deaths to vaccination solely because they happened to receive the vaccine the day they died is a bit problematic.

You have a "public statement." That is not a fact-check. (Especially considering Pfizer's involvement in the investigation.)

My argument wasn't that the vaccine affords absolute protection from death, though I think these numbers are similar to those in my link. Saying that they aren't attributable to the vaccine only begs the question of what you could attribute this high survival rate to among the vaccinated population.
Since we cannot control for the effects of the vaccine as it pertains to its capacity to prevent death, the prospect of which would necessitate observation of both the survival and death of the same individuals, then any "survival rate" attributed to the vaccine would be chiefly based on a post hoc fallacy. Unless you can substantiate that a person would have died with certainty absent of being inoculated with this vaccine, the survival rates are moot, especially considering, as I demonstrated above that, absent of vaccination, the U.S. unvaccinated have a 99.426% "survival rate."

...I'm sorry, does antibody production have nothing to do with individual health?
The antibody production of another individual, for example, cannot inform on my antibody production.

We can look at individual patients and monitor differences between a vaccinated and unvaccinated person in terms of what they produce with regards to immune defenses and provide a pretty clear picture of how they're likely to respond to the virus.
And the conclusions from such a method would produce an ecological inference fallacy. That is not science; that is mere assumption.

There is always going to be variation in how people respond to the virus, but having a head start on an immune response provides a pretty clear picture of how likely they are to mount a strong immune response to the virus before it has time to replicate and spread.
And to what extent can this be quantified? "How strong" does one's immune response have to be?

I'd say that the rushed schedule was justifiable given the existence of the ongoing and, in some cases, worsening pandemic. I'd also say that a lot of the studies were done before this that paved the way for these to be produced in both a safe and efficacious manner. You clearly don't agree with either assessment.
You're right, I don't.

Again, would really love to see that patented virus. I haven't been able to find it. Assuming that it was patented, I'd like to see some evidence that it's the same coronavirus. Coronaviruses existed before the patent, they existed afterward, and they have been worked on in many labs. If you can provide some link between that patented virus (not really sure it exists, but I'll assume it does) and the current pandemic, be my guest.
If I had the evidence you seek, I would have either been murdered, or the subject of both morning and evening news for years to come. But admittedly, this is not your concern. I'm banking on the idea that you're a fairly intelligent individual, at least from what I have observed during my time in this  forum, who can put two and two together, especially considering your expertise on the subject of microbiology with the particular focus on viruses.

But I will ask this: is it conceivable, plausible, or even possible that the COVID-19 virus could have been a strain developed from a manipulated SARS-Cov base?





whiteflame
whiteflame's avatar
Debates: 27
Posts: 3,245
4
6
10
whiteflame's avatar
whiteflame
4
6
10
-->
@Athias
What about the vaccine's function in "teaching" cells to produce covid spike proteins as means to develop an immune-response?
That doesn't impart long-term functional changes. mRNA is required for a cell to actually produce a given protein. If those mRNA messages aren't available, then the cell cannot make the associated protein. What the vaccine does is introduce that messaging molecule to cells, giving them instructions on how to make the protein. That message degrades within a short timeframe, and the cells can no longer make the spike protein afterward.

You're appealing to emotion; you can no more gauge the value I place on these lost lives anymore than I can yours. Hence, there's no point in bringing it up, especially considering the argument, "covid vaccine prevents covid death," hasn't been substantiated.
If emphasizing the value of those lives is emotional, then so is deemphasizing it. Your argument was that "the urgency of the vaccine's necessity is grossly exaggerated." How do you determine that if you're not basing it on the value of lives lost? Isn't that statement predicated on the view that the number of lives being lost to the virus does not impart a sense of urgency?

And clearly, we disagree that the statement you've put into quotes hasn't been substantiated.

Arguing it's moral integrity depends on which moral philosophy we use as a metric. I am however certain that I can argue its immorality consistent with any metric that's worth while.
Again, not something I want to get into here. It's a digression from the rest of our discussion.

No, it is. The conditions you propose qualify this measure no more than it does the others. Here, for example: "vaccination 'could be' extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't." Good hygiene would still be the primary countermeasure.
I still disagree. Good hygiene must be practiced consistently across the board to be effective, and every individual must do it because, failing that, every individual remains vulnerable to infection through any number of interactions with airborne particles. Vaccination must be practiced for the number of required shots across a sufficient population to dramatically restrict the spread of the virus, not for every individual.

Your conclusion from these statistics are based on a post hoc fallacy.  You're claiming an efficacy of vaccination simply by counting after the fact
I don't see how counting after the fact is problematic. You can compare the population of unvaccinated with the population of vaccinated and determine, based on that, the propensity for death from COVID-19 among those populations. Vaccines are inherently a preventative measure, so this is literally the only means we have for determining whether a vaccination was effective. You can argue that it's imperfect all you want because it's not a direct test, but it's also a very large test spread across a very wide population with a very large group of unvaccinated to compare with. 

As for the rest of this, which largely amounts to responses to DoubleR rather than responses to me, it seems like your goal with this argument is to point out that the actual numbers of deaths doesn't suggest a very high death toll for the virus. I'm not particularly great with statistics, and it's not my goal to dig up numbers to make my case for a certain number of deaths (though I think the comparison should be between total numbers of infected and total deaths, rather than comparing total deaths to the overall population). I also think that's besides the point, because it seems to me like the case you're making is entirely numerical in nature, i.e. some unknown number of deaths "demand, require, necessitate, or even justify a mandate" whereas a smaller number (presumably the one you just derived), does not. I've already said I'm not interested in getting into the morality or immorality of a mandate, and I think focusing on the total numbers of dead as a means of either justifying or dismissing a mandate falls into that camp. What you find to be a sufficient number to be moral may differ from mine. I've also said that I personally have mixed feelings about the mandate (I never said I supported it), so I don't know why you're continuing to argue this point.

I can no more assert that "such and such" effect will happen than you can assert that "such and such" effect won't happen because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine an its product.
I'm not asserting when I'm basing it on known elements of the vaccine and how long they stick around in the body. The weight of existing evidence about what the vaccine does and how long it lasts suggests that its side effects are limited to a narrow window of time. Long-term side effects can only occur when some lasting change is made. There is no evidence that I am aware of that suggests a lasting change, apart from the production of an immune response and resultant memory cells that stick around. I acknowledge that a possibility exists, but given the complete absence of evidence suggesting that the vaccine either sticks around in the body or causes long-term changes to the body that could yield substantial side-effects, the plausibility of that concern is another matter.

You have a "public statement." That is not a fact-check. (Especially considering Pfizer's involvement in the investigation.)
I also have population data, which you haven't addressed, that suggests that this death toll does not exceed the normal death toll in this population and has not been linked to their receipt of the vaccine. For someone who has been very quick to pounce on the correlation vs. causation fallacy, you're pretty quick to accept causation in this instance.

Since we cannot control for the effects of the vaccine as it pertains to its capacity to prevent death, the prospect of which would necessitate observation of both the survival and death of the same individuals, then any "survival rate" attributed to the vaccine would be chiefly based on a post hoc fallacy. Unless you can substantiate that a person would have died with certainty absent of being inoculated with this vaccine, the survival rates are moot, especially considering, as I demonstrated above that, absent of vaccination, the U.S. unvaccinated have a 99.426% "survival rate."
Your argument appears to be the following: because we cannot perform the perfect study to demonstrate vaccine effectiveness, we must dismiss any claims to a reduced infection, hospitalization or survival rate. I strongly disagree. Again, getting correlational data across multiple surveys in multiple populations is indicative of an effect, even if it comes after the fact. I don't understand why the perfect study must be performed in order to demonstrate what is actively happening for billions of people worldwide right now. We know how many people become infected. We can determine what percentage of those that are infected become hospitalized and how many die. We can compare those rates between the two populations. Is every comparison of this sort perfect? Of course not. There are too many differences in behaviors among these populations to say that this was the only affecting factor. That being said, it's not impossible to control for behaviors in these studies, and many do just that. To say that they're all functionally invalid seems incredibly dismissive without being justified.

The antibody production of another individual, for example, cannot inform on my antibody production.
Your point was that none of these studies "has anything to do with one's own individual health." Doctors can monitor that. And yes, that includes your personal antibody production. Antibody titers are common practice. Beyond that, to say that the antibody production of another individual in no way informs your own doesn't make sense to me. If production is monitored across a broad set of people over a long period of time and found to be largely consistent, then yes, doctors can actually predict what will happen in you.

And the conclusions from such a method would produce an ecological inference fallacy. That is not science; that is mere assumption.
I don't see how this is so, since a study like this necessarily must look at individuals. If I'm monitoring the production of antibodies after the administration of a vaccine and comparing it with an individual who receives a placebo, I'm looking at two individuals, not a population. If I continue to expand that outward and see this individual dynamic is true across a very large swath of patients, then saying that the vaccine induces an antibody response in the vast majority of patients receiving it is not an ecological inference fallacy. It's absolutely not an assumption.

And to what extent can this be quantified? "How strong" does one's immune response have to be?
Antibody titers can be quantified. The rate of production of B cells with those antibodies when challenged with the virus can be quantified. The immune response to the virus following the initial and subsequently increased production of antibodies can be quantified. As for "How strong" it would have to be, that depends on a variety of factors, including the infectious dose received and how quickly the innate immune response is recruited. That certainly complicates things to a degree, but I don't think it invalidates the value of this specific immune response being effective against the virus.

If I had the evidence you seek, I would have either been murdered, or the subject of both morning and evening news for years to come.
A bit overdramatic.

I'm banking on the idea that you're a fairly intelligent individual, at least from what I have observed during my time in this  forum, who can put two and two together, especially considering your expertise on the subject of microbiology with the particular focus on viruses.
Well, I appreciate that. I will say that I appreciate the thought you're putting into your responses, even when I personally disagree with what you're saying. Not sure what your background is, but you seem well read.

But I will ask this: is it conceivable, plausible, or even possible that the COVID-19 virus could have been a strain developed from a manipulated SARS-Cov base?
I concede the possibility of it. It's also entirely possible that this is a natural strain. I have yet to see substantive evidence that leads me in either direction. The link you provided tells me that there are certainly human-modified pieces of coronaviruses that have been patented. That's true of basically any virus of note, as well as a great deal of bacteria, fungi and other organisms. I don't find that this tells much of a story, personally, especially since these weren't all functional viruses that could be released into the world and actively replicate in humans. I see amino acid sequences, various protein production methods and certain modified proteins, antivirals, protein complexes, antibodies, specific RNA interference methods, and some early vaccine stuff, much of which is likely directed at other coronaviruses that were coming up around that time. Several of those, including SARS-CoV-1 and MERS, are specifically mentioned. None of this looks particularly damning to me.
Athias
Athias's avatar
Debates: 20
Posts: 3,192
3
3
9
Athias's avatar
Athias
3
3
9
-->
@whiteflame
That doesn't impart long-term functional changes. mRNA is required for a cell to actually produce a given protein. If those mRNA messages aren't available, then the cell cannot make the associated protein. What the vaccine does is introduce that messaging molecule to cells, giving them instructions on how to make the protein. That message degrades within a short timeframe, and the cells can no longer make the spike protein afterward.
Can mRNA be manipulated to create long-term functional changes where the mRNA message doesn't degrade within a short time frame?

And clearly, we disagree that the statement you've put into quotes hasn't been substantiated.
The vaccine's efficacy cannot be (reasonably/logically/scientifically) controlled. Hence, the statement "covid vaccine prevents covid death" cannot be substantiated.

If emphasizing the value of those lives is emotional, then so is deemphasizing it. Your argument was that "the urgency of the vaccine's necessity is grossly exaggerated." How do you determine that if you're not basing it on the value of lives lost? Isn't that statement predicated on the view that the number of lives being lost to the virus does not impart a sense of urgency?
It's the subject which concerns how each of us values the lives lost to this virus that imputes the appeal to emotion. That is, your attempt to make a distinction between our arguments, particularly on the urgency of the vaccine's necessity, is contingent on how much we presumably care about "saving lives." And I put that in quotes because the vaccine's efficacy hasn't not be controlled.

I still disagree. Good hygiene must be practiced consistently across the board to be effective, and every individual must do it because, failing that, every individual remains vulnerable to infection through any number of interactions with airborne particles. Vaccination must be practiced for the number of required shots across a sufficient population to dramatically restrict the spread of the virus, not for every individual.
Vaccination requires inoculation among 70% of the population (some have pushed for 90% with Covid) to be "effective" and attain herd immunity. What is the significance in the 30% differential?

I don't see how counting after the fact is problematic. You can compare the population of unvaccinated with the population of vaccinated and determine, based on that, the propensity for death from COVID-19 among those populations. Vaccines are inherently a preventative measure, so this is literally the only means we have for determining whether a vaccination was effective. You can argue that it's imperfect all you want because it's not a direct test, but it's also a very large test spread across a very wide population with a very large group of unvaccinated to compare with. 
Counting after the fact being the only means does not mean it's a sufficient means.

As for the rest of this, which largely amounts to responses to DoubleR rather than responses to me, it seems like your goal with this argument is to point out that the actual numbers of deaths doesn't suggest a very high death toll for the virus. I'm not particularly great with statistics, and it's not my goal to dig up numbers to make my case for a certain number of deaths (though I think the comparison should be between total numbers of infected and total deaths, rather than comparing total deaths to the overall population).
I was referencing a previous statement of mine to DoubleR in response to your point about the hospitalization and death statistics. Even if we were to place significance on the total number infected and the total deaths, it would still render a 98.4% "survival rate." I put survival rate in quotes because it's ecological and fallacious. The point I'm making is not to give validity to these statistics; it's to demonstrate that even if we are to indulge these fallacious reasons, it would still not favor vaccination.

I also think that's besides the point, because it seems to me like the case you're making is entirely numerical in nature, i.e. some unknown number of deaths "demand, require, necessitate, or even justify a mandate" whereas a smaller number (presumably the one you just derived), does not. I've already said I'm not interested in getting into the morality or immorality of a mandate, and I think focusing on the total numbers of dead as a means of either justifying or dismissing a mandate falls into that camp. What you find to be a sufficient number to be moral may differ from mine. I've also said that I personally have mixed feelings about the mandate (I never said I supported it), so I don't know why you're continuing to argue this point.
Any focus on the mandate would require moral analysis; therefore, to avoid discussions on the morality of the subject, we have to drop the point about the mandate. I'm against it; you have mixed feelings. That alone should suffice.

I'm not asserting when I'm basing it on known elements of the vaccine and how long they stick around in the body. The weight of existing evidence about what the vaccine does and how long it lasts suggests that its side effects are limited to a narrow window of time.
And to what extent is the scope of this evidence considered? The side effects (allegedly) aren't the only things "limited to a narrow window of time."

Long-term side effects can only occur when some lasting change is made. There is no evidence that I am aware of that suggests a lasting change, apart from the production of an immune response and resultant memory cells that stick around. I acknowledge that a possibility exists, but given the complete absence of evidence suggesting that the vaccine either sticks around in the body or causes long-term changes to the body that could yield substantial side-effects, the plausibility of that concern is another matter.
How are long-term side effects supposed to be observed absent of a long-term?

I also have population data, which you haven't addressed, that suggests that this death toll does not exceed the normal death toll in this population and has not been linked to their receipt of the vaccine. For someone who has been very quick to pounce on the correlation vs. causation fallacy, you're pretty quick to accept causation in this instance.
The population data isn't relevant. It was referenced in an attempt to explain away what I presume they're concluding is a coincidence. But that's not scientific. And their investigation was influenced by the very producers of that vaccine. But you're right: I can no more say that death immediately after covid vaccine means that covid vaccine produced death, than you can say taking a covid vaccine and experiencing persistent survival afterwards mean covid vaccine prevented death.

Your argument appears to be the following: because we cannot perform the perfect study to demonstrate vaccine effectiveness, we must dismiss any claims to a reduced infection, hospitalization or survival rate. I strongly disagree.
This is part and parcel the reason "seem/appear" shouldn't be present in an argument: I am not at all stating that the studies are deficient because they're not "perfect." I'm stating the conclusions from these studies are logically inconsistent/unsound and based on fallacious reasoning. And, as I've mentioned above, even if were to indulge this fallacious reasoning, it still wouldn't favor vaccination, much less a mandate.

Your point was that none of these studies "has anything to do with one's own individual health." Doctors can monitor that. And yes, that includes your personal antibody production.
I never said Doctors couldn't monitor my personal antibody production; I said that the antibody production of another cannot inform on my own antibody production.