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@Athias
Ok... then how will I be stopped?then you have not taken a moral position against murder; there'd be no functional difference between you and a genocidal despot.
If it's between me genociding the savages and the savages genociding the civilized people, the civilized people are going to pick my genocide every time. A third option may be required.
No consistent moral economy.
What does that mean precisely?
It's more solved than if the only consequence of murder was the equivalent of a civil lawsuit and even then only if you're identified and only if your victim had a lot of people who had both money and shits to give.Yes, people would have to give a shit. I've never denied that. How is this premise any different than that of any other social organization? As I told Critical-Tim, the only unity necessary is in the respect of individual sovereignty.
Society wide shit-giving is indistinguishable from support for a unified set of laws.
Unified laws being inevitable the real problem is keeping those laws moral, in other words keeping those laws from being used to violate liberty (which may be identical to what you are calling individual sovereignty)
There are two different things to volunteer for.A) Volunteer to support the enforcement of the lawB) Volunteer to obey the lawOr one can volunteer to opt out.
Opt out of what exactly?
My ideal government can and would (by definition) require (A). How is it materially different from a giant version of what you call mediation organizations?Because:Athias Post #37:operations are not subject to consumer satisfaction--consumers who can opt out--but subject to the determination of a hegemonic organization that provides no real good or service.
"consumers" can opt out of supporting my ideal government. Explain.
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@Athias
If you and the Olmec king seek mediation by having two companies represent your interests, then you either resolve your dispute or you continue it. Presumably, the act of seeking mediation would suggest that killing hundreds more of them, and their burning more of your homes and prospective economic assets isn't your primary goal. How you two come to terms and resolve your dispute is up to the two of you. If no arrangement is satisfactory, then the dispute goes on. If you fail to defend yourself, then your family, friends, or community can seek restitution for your wrongful death, in which case a separate mediation can occur--or they can go to war on your behalf.
Yea it's going to be war, that's what happens with irreconcilable value conflicts.
So then it's back to the original arbiter: Military excellence.
There are a few rules in war, one is that all warfare is deception. A consequence is that no attack succeeds more often or more spectacularly than a preemptive strike.
In that case I'll see that these savages are a danger to everyone around them, and before they get a chance to burn down my house and kill me; I'll contract with a "mediator" who just happens to resort to violence 95% of the time. Let us call this "mediator" Mercenary Inc. Myself and other non-savages will pay Mercenary Inc to wipe them out. Not just the warriors, priests, and kings; but the families out to 2nd cousins.
Destroy the entire race and culture in a preemptive strike.
Now I'm safe, and the other people are safe. Any problem with this in your opinion?
My rule of engagement is that anyone who would resort to murder dies. 95% of people who've seen a murder or been threatened by murderers will agree with me.Argumentum ad populum.
Not at all, simply pointing out that the vast portion of resources and manpower will be available for my plan.
We will terminate or enslave anyone who dares to opt out of our zero-murder policy.Then your exercise of policy isn't based in any consistent moral economy; just your presumption to "punish."
What's wrong with punishment? And if there is something wrong with it, someone can seek a mediation company. We'll kill them and the mediation company; but they can try right?
Is murder "solved"?
It's more solved than if the only consequence of murder was the equivalent of a civil lawsuit and even then only if you're identified and only if your victim had a lot of people who had both money and shits to give.
So as long as nobody is forced to pay for it, you'll call in anarcho-capitalism? In that case my ideal government is a subset of your acceptable social constructs.No, it's anarcho-capitalism if it's voluntary.
There are two different things to volunteer for.
A) Volunteer to support the enforcement of the law
B) Volunteer to obey the law
It's (B) that is the issue, refusing to refrain from murder is not acceptable. You imply that it is ethical to deal with the unacceptable behavior of some by hiring agents and having those agents use violence (perhaps as a last resort, but still violence).
There is nothing voluntary about doing murder, and the murderer would not volunteer to be killed or exiled. My ideal government can and would (by definition) require (A). How is it materially different from a giant version of what you call mediation organizations?
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@Athias
First the Olmec were ruled by monarchs
That is irrelevant, this belief was nearly universal it was not imposed from above or else it would not survive changes in regime and we're talking about thousands of tribes and dozens of distinct child cultures.
second, there's no moral condemnation in defending oneself even if it results in death. So if savage Olmec cannibals sought to use you in their sacrifices, by all means effectively end the threat. Why would this contradict the concept of liberty? Is it not enhanced?
Suppose I did, I get my hands on Spanish steel armor and I take out a hundred of them before making my escape. In anger they burn down my home and all my economic assets.
Then both their king and myself seek the services of a mediation group (two different companys). They claim I murdered a bunch of people who were just trying to get dinner and practice their religion. I claim I was driven from my home and demand justice and compensation.
Objectively I am in the right, but the system doesn't protect my liberty simply by not being inherently biased against my self-defense. It must not only be overwhelmingly biased in favor of my self-defense but also provide for justice even if I failed to defend myself (which is so often the case as aggressors are not idiots and often attack only when victory is near certain).
Please describe how anarcho-capitalist legal system fulfills those two requirements.
You can have decentralized enforcement of a single rulebook, there is no problem there; the problem is with a decentralized rulebook insofar as its a diverse rulebook.You haven't identified the problem. Each individual has their own rules of engagement; if individuals seek to cooperate with each other, then they can create terms that will service a mutual satisfaction. If they are not satisfied with the arrangement, they can choose to not opt in, or opt out. Case in point: Dating. Everyone has their own preferences and behave accordingly. There isn't a single, centralized rulebook. Does one risk STI contradiction, pregnancy, date rape, and broken hearts? Sure. It's vastly paramount to retain one's autonomy and discretion than to entertain the pretense one can avoid or prevent that which isn't (or should not be) under one's control.
Let's stick with murder. As the fundamental problem it is (and always has been) solving it would set a template for solving all other violations of liberty.
My rule of engagement is that anyone who would resort to murder dies. 95% of people who've seen a murder or been threatened by murderers will agree with me. We will terminate or enslave anyone who dares to opt out of our zero-murder policy. Problem solved? (Sounds a bit like the dawn of civilization to me)
At what point do you call it a centralized legal system?When operations are not subject to consumer satisfaction--consumers who can opt out--but subject to the determination of a hegemonic organization that provides no real good or service.
So as long as nobody is forced to pay for it, you'll call in anarcho-capitalism? In that case my ideal government is a subset of your acceptable social constructs.
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@Athias
and in my analysis such a thing is inherently flawed because there is only one right answer and when there is only one right answer leaving room for diversity is leaving room for error.Please elaborate.
I will by extreme example: All Olmec derived civilizations took for granted the utility, sanctity, and permissibility of human sacrifice.
Regardless of how social morality is enforced, there is to my knowledge at least one objective theory of ethics which determines that anyone and any culture who engages in human sacrifice have chosen the path of savagery and forfeited any claim to enjoy liberty by right.
Therefore any system that tolerates a tribe of human sacrificing cannibals in or near itself as a inherent consequence of its constitution has failed to protect the objective right to liberty.
If an indispensable goal of the system you describe is not to protect liberty, then it is insufficient.
You can have decentralized enforcement of a single rulebook, there is no problem there; the problem is with a decentralized rulebook insofar as its a diverse rulebook.
A considerable part of the justice system is geared not towards resolving disputes but punishing crime so that criminality is not a tempting path.A considerable part of the justice system is jailing individuals for harmless "crimes,"
That is true, but it does not negate what I said. That is a problem with the law, not with enforcement. Victimless crimes should not exist.
Note that when I say "victimless crimes should not exist" I'm rejecting all rulebooks with victimless crimes in it, rejecting them not only for myself and my community but all communities.
and in effect, creating de-facto slaves, whose labor is outsourced to crony companies.
The public is the slave in this case (and in most cases), almost no prisons make a profit by labor; many have no significant work programs.
A man who has outlived his family and no friends at the moment is murdered. He's dead, and there is no one to complain; but murder has been done and murder must be punished.Isn't this like "if a tree falls in a forest..."? Murder has to be investigated; murder has to be proven. But let's for the sake of argument consider that somehow this man's murder is properly investigated and sufficiently proven, then the murderer can be exiled or outlawed.
Investigated and proven by who?
I'd support people whose job it is to investigate and prove all crimes regardless of complaints. A standing complaint. This isn't a novel idea, that's why they say things like "The State of Pennsylvania vs [Suspect]"
When you have a large group of investigators with broad popular support the rulebook that determines what is a crime and what isn't is the law and that group are police.
At what point do you call it a centralized legal system?
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@SkepticalOne
Well there was a period when it was popular to assert with barely any evidence that he was a homosexual. I think he liked his horse a lot.Alexander the Great
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@Dr.Franklin
No one asked you to comment, sometimes people just do things you know?
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@Athias
@Critical-Tim
I don't think I've seen a theory for a truly decentralized legal system, and in my analysis such a thing is inherently flawed because there is only one right answer and when there is only one right answer leaving room for diversity is leaving room for error.
However I am open to the argument that there is no way to centralize law without so much corruption that it is worse than the average justice of decentralized law.
I don't wish to "pile on" you Athias, answer or delay answering as you see fit please.
[Critical-Tim] How would anarchy deal with the problems of violence, crime, and injustice, without any law enforcement or judicial system?[Athias] Dispute Resolution Organizations can handle tort and mediate disputes among individual parties; wrongful acts can also make one subject to Outlawry.[Critical-Tim] Who would decide the law, would it be majority vote or something else?[Athias] The free market.
A considerable part of the justice system is geared not towards resolving disputes but punishing crime so that criminality is not a tempting path. As a consequence, and sometimes as a conscious goal is the motivation to defend the helpless.
Already we see that filing a civil suit is more a weapon for the rich and generally an enormous waste of resources. While it can be argued that this is a result of incorrect incentives in the system, it's still true that there are cases (many) where the victim cannot bring suit. Let me give you the most obvious (to my mind):
A man who has outlived his family and no friends at the moment is murdered. He's dead, and there is no one to complain; but murder has been done and murder must be punished.
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@Double_R
You mean like wokeness or transgenderism?
Yes actually, those words are placeholders for the conceptual chaos characterizing a political enemy tribe. Like saying "religion" or "zealotry" or "theocracy", it can never be more precisely defined than the limits of what the ones giving existence to the fog happen to do.
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@YouFound_Lxam
We have had drastic changes in the weather all throughout history.
We've also had famines too. We should be storing a decade of food for the world and building a robust nuclear power system. It's common sense, but as always so long as other people are a problem everything else comes second.
But we know that can't be true, because it has fluctuated down and up in temperature not just up.
It's fairly obviously a snap between two equilibrium levels, very normal for a differential equation. Almost certainly albedo change from melting ice.
We have some ice to melt, but ice where the sun is weak will have much less of an affect, but more importantly we're on the hot side of the snap. Some major factor is keeping us from getting warmer and if I had to guess I would say cloud cover. The warmer it is the more water evaporates the easier clouds form.
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@Mps1213
Would you like to have a rated debate on this topic? Resolution is simply “CO2 has been proven to warm the atmosphere.”...And how about we handle it this way. You can invite me to a rated debate with the resolution “CO2 does not wake the atmosphere.” We can settle it there and see whose evidence is more convincing.
No, if you're interested in the truth you don't need points or applause. The only thing in a rated debate will add is an excuse to fall into a fallacy. If you think science is settled by vote you're too far removed from scientific thought to reason with.
I’ll debate with you officially but not on here any longer.
I can't force you to debate, but I may link back to this thread in the future if you again take issue with my beliefs about anthropomorphic catastrophic global climate change.
I thought to say:
After I asked you for evidence of the quality and caliber I provided in my most recent post, you went silent. Is it because you haven’t found any math or physics to compete with that last post? Or are you just tired of the conversation?
It's most likely that my drug (caffeine) cannot compete with yours (whatever it is).
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@Mps1213
Also “Speaking of clouds, a slight decrease in clouds could very easily account for the increasing temperature and be nearly impossible to quantify. How much less useful (politically) is "the clouds might be doing something, we don't know why".This is very easy to calculate and it’s called the libido of the planet and yes it does have an effect on temperature. So does CO2.
Albedo, if libido could warm a planet that would explain it. No it's not easy to calculate at all. In fact it isn't calculated, it's measured; and to get measurements precise enough to be useful would require multiple very fine instruments very far away (which they may have, but I haven't heard about it and I follow space news).
An easy to do this is to do the formula I posted (which all geoscience majors have to do) without the greenhouse effect implemented. Then do it without CO2 implemented. Then check each answer against the average temperature of the earth. You will see it is Lower than it should be unless you account for greenhouse gases and CO2. That alone is enough evidence to say with certainty that CO2 warms the environment and accounts for roughly 1/5 of the greenhouse effect.
Mps.... this is why philosophy is so important. Yes I know I sound like a broken record but it comes up so often because its the foundation of everything and almost everyone is never educated in this.
The above example is to me tragic, you're obviously being trained in high science; you're standing on the shoulders of millennia of thinkers and being handed knowledge and doesn't it make you proud but you just committed the same fallacy that retarded human knowledge for hundreds of thousands of years.
You've been given knowledge, but not the most important knowledge which is: How do I get more knowledge? How do I discern knowledge from superstition?
Let's say for the sake of argument that I didn't have an alternative hypothesis, or that my hypothesis is even now wrong (it could be from first principles).
What you just argued was that if there is something you don't have an explanation for (the Earth is warmer than the radiative equilibrium math predicts), that whatever purports to be an explanation must be true and that anyone who doubts that explanation must have an alternative hypothesis.
Why do you think people believed that a thunder god caused thunder? Because when the priests and shamans gave them that explanation, they didn't have a better one.
Ignorance is not a sufficient reason to accept a purported explanation. If the explanation fails logical tests, it must be rejected even if admitting ignorance is the result.
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@Mps1213
This is the part you need to disprove.
Patience grasshopper.
Something hosted by ucsd (University of California San Diego I assume):
Now part two of the recipe: how hot will the extra CO2 make us? Most physics students, once they learn about radiative heat transfer (affectionately called sigma-T-to-the-fourth), are tasked with calculating the Earth’s temperature in radiative equilibrium with the Sun. If done “correctly,” the answer is disappointingly cold because the greenhouse effect is not incorporated in the simple calculation.The way it works is, the sun imbues a radiative flux of 1370 Watts per square meter at the position of the Earth. Given its radius of R = 6378 km, the Earth intercepts 1370 W/m² × πR² of the incident sunlight, since the Earth appears as a projected disk to the Sun. Most of this incident flux is absorbed in the oceans, land, atmosphere, and clouds, while the remainder is immediately reflected back to space so the aliens can see our planet. The absorbed part (70%) heats the earth surface environment and eventually is re-radiated to space as thermal infrared radiation, at wavelengths centered at about 10 microns—far beyond human vision (0.4 to 0.7 microns).
This is correct, but here we can start to see the seeds of the misconception. "eventually is re-radiated".
The thermal energy is re-radiated, but the phrasing here could unfortunately lead students to the mistaken notion that this is a pure (or even approximately) a radiative equilibrium situation.
The Earth <-> Sol system is radiative equilibrium. The Earth Surface <-> Earth Upper Atmosphere OR Earth Radiative Surface system is not a radiative equilibrium problem.
The law for thermal radiation is that a surface emits a total radiative power of A·σT4, where A is the surface area, σ=5.67×10−8 W/m²/K4 is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, and Tis the surface temperature in Kelvin. For instance, a patch of Earth at the average surface temperature of 288 K (15°C, or 59°F) emits 390 W/m² of infrared radiation. To figure out the temperature of the Earth, we demand that power in equals power out, and radiative transfer is the only game in town for getting heat on and off the Earth.
Yes it's the only game, if "Earth" is the system encompassed by the whole mass of the Earth including the upper atmosphere. Any system smaller than that (including the system that includes the surface and the lower atmosphere) does not obey this simplification.
If we did not have a balance between power in and power out, the Earth’s temperature would change until equilibrium was re-established. Hey—that’s what global warming is doing. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves…While the Earth intercepts a column of light from the sun with area πR², the Earth has a surface area of 4πR² to radiate. Considering that 70% of the incoming sunlight is in play, we have an effective influx of 960 W/m² onto one quarter of the Earth’s surface area (why not half? much of the Sun-side of the Earth is tilted to the sun and does not receive direct, overhead sunlight). So the radiated part must work out to 240 W/m², which implies an effective temperature of 255 K, or a bone-chilling −18°C (about 0°F).
Accounting for errors due to imperfect blackbodies (none are ever perfect due to preference for characteristic energies) that is the temperature of Earth's radiative surface; and I'm not saying one particular range of the atmosphere, whatever range implies this average temperature must be the effective radiative surface.
Incidentally, if the Earth were black as coal, absorbing all incident solar radiation, the answer would have been a more satisfactory 279 K, or 6°C, but still colder than observed.We know that 255 K is the wrong answer; off by 33°C. The discrepancy is the greenhouse effect, and to this we owe our comfort and our liquid oceans. The greenhouse gases absorb some of the outbound infrared radiation and re-radiate in all directions, sending some of the energy back toward Earth. Two-thirds of the effect (about 22°C) is from water vapor, about one-fifth (~7°C) is from carbon dioxide, and the remaining 15% is from a mix of other gases, including methane.
mps... there is no math here. The math all related to the radiation of the sun and Earth (complete system Earth).
My explanation of thermal mass insulation explains why our surface is warmer, it also explains the other planets, it survives the fact that the blackbody radiation of Earth's surface is already completely scattered, and it survives the fact that temperature precedes CO₂.
Crudely speaking, if CO2 is responsible for 7 of the 33 degrees of the greenhouse effect, we can easily predict the equilibrium consequences of an increase in CO2. We have so far increased the concentration of CO2 from 280 ppm to 390 ppm, or about 40%. Since I have some ambiguity about whether the 7 K contribution to the surface temperature is based on the current CO2 concentration or the pre-industrial figure, we’ll look at it both ways and see it doesn’t matter much at this level of analysis. If CO2 increased the pre-industrial surface temperature by 7 K, then adding 40% more CO2 would increase the temperature by 7×0.4 = 2.8 K. If we instead say that 7 K is the current CO2 contribution, the associated increase is 7−7/1.4 = 2 K. Either way, the increase is in line with estimates of warming—
Nothing about thermodynamics is linear, this isn't crude it's completely baseless; it's sad to see something like the absurdum I made about Mars being 6 times warmer being shown to students.
though the system has a lag due to the heat capacity of oceans, slowing down the rate of temperature increase.
This is true, an important insight in general if misapplied here. Note MPS that what he or she just said would imply the temperature should lag even farther behind carbon dioxide.
Using a linear relationship between CO2 and temperature change does not constitute a correct treatment
To say less than the least....
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@Mps1213
Argument that CO₂ has a net cooling effect, now with ball park figures:
Previously I said:
If you could block the entire blackbody radiation of Earth via atmospheric gasses (210-310k, see second curve) that would cool our planet because convection would continue as it always has but that band of solar radiation would be blocked in the upper atmosphere and never reach the surface.If you look at a temperature graph of the atmosphere you can see hot layers, that is precisely what is happening already and it would only happen more.
I will continue to make the argument about all "greenhouse" gasses, as that is the largest scope of applicability; it necessarily follows that if any "greenhouse" gas will cool the surface, so will CO₂.
I will now define "greenhouse gas" and stop putting it in quotes so that it can be understood that even though I'm using the word it isn't much like a greenhouse at all.
Greenhouse gas - A gas with significant spectral absorbance in the range of the blackbody radiation of a celestial body while having insignificant spectral absorbance near the peak of the local star(s) radiation.
Earth's blackbody radiation was shown in the graph I linked to many times 210k-310k (Average is 15C 285K). NOTE! This is the surface of the Earth as in the land and water, not the top of the atmosphere.
We'll use blackbody radiation of 285k for our presume surface radiation.
The sun will have a blackbody temperature of 5777K.
The tools for equations and spreadsheets do not easily translate to hyper-anonymous web activity. Therefore I will make use of some calculators so the reader can follow along:
The surface area of Earth is 509,600,000 km² = 5.096×10^14 m²
The surface area of Sol is 6.09e12 km² = 6.09×10^18 m²
Earth (the ground) radiates 1.906403805179055e17 W. 91.21% of that energy would be between 6000 and 40,000 nm with the peak being at 10.16 microns.
Sol radiates 0.384620829026384e27 W with a peak being around 501.6 nm.
Let's sanity check by calculating the irradiance at Earth's orbit. To do this we consider the total power of the sun at the average orbital distance of Earth (r = 1AU = 1.495e11 m).
The ratio of the power divided by the surface area of the sphere of radius 1AU:
0.384620829026384e27 W / ( 4 * π *(1 AU)² )= 1367.7 W/m² https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=0.384620829026384e27+W+%2F+%28+4+*+%CF%80+*%281+AU%29%C2%B2+%29
This is close enough to the wikipedia "1361 W/m^2" to assure us no order of magnitude mistakes are present so far.
Let's now use that calculator and these same calculations to determine how much of that irradiance is in the band of the blackbody radiation of Earth's surface.
The solar power radiated between 6000 and 40,000 nm is 1.2999051628954013e24 W. This is over a thousand times less than the total, so right away you can tell it's not going to be much of the irradiance.
1.2999051628954013e24 W / ( 4 * π *(1 AU)² ) = 4.62 W/m² https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=1.2999051628954013e24+W+%2F+%28+4+*+%CF%80+*%281+AU%29%C2%B2+%29
That's only 0.34%. That is how much power would be blocked at the top of the atmosphere if the atmosphere was "perfectly greenhousey".
But what about the other side of this hypothetical wall?
Radiation from the radiating surface in question (earth-sea) would indeed be scattered by greenhouse gasses, and the effect of having less than saturation might well be noticeable cooling effect.
However, beyond saturation the effect would extremely rapidly reach: nothing.
Is Earth at saturation? Yes. How do I know? The graph. How far above saturation are we? A considerable amount from my memory of previous research, hundreds of times for water, more than twice for carbon dioxide.
That means when it says "100%" it's more than 100%, an average photon will not just hit a resonant electron shell once, but multiple times on a path outward (or inward).
Every time it does this is a chance to be converted into kinetic energy (when a collision between particles occurs while an electron is still excited).
In other words thermal photons don't make it from the surface to space (almost always). They serve only to bonce around and dissipate into kinetic energy (from whence they came).
They have never done anything different because this planet has had saturation carbon dioxide and water for every time period with life in it.
Mars is in saturation (despite its thin atmosphere), Venus is so far above saturation that you can bet a 6-40 micron camera sees only total darkness a few hundred meters below the clouds.
So if photons from the surface aren't cooling the surface and Earth must cool by radiation in this 6-40 micron band then how does it cool? I've said this already, but let me put it at the end of a post so as to make sure it isn't lost:
The energy is transported by convection (and conduction and radiation) to the upper atmosphere. There, where the radiation does not need to go through a fog of greenhouse gasses (water most of all) it radiates out into space.
Therefore the very slight effect of increasing greenhouse gasses is to slightly increase the temperature of the upper atmosphere (moving the interception layer higher) while slightly decreasing the temperature of the lower atmosphere (and surface).
Now, if you ask for the exact dynamics of convection, clouds, temperature, and water vapor I will tell you I do not have that and that nobody has that. That is the poster child for chaotic systems, it's also known as the weather and nobody anywhere can predict it. Suffice to say that the way it operates has no dependence on the radiation ping pong of trace gasses.
I do not claim to have all the factors or make predictions about the whole, I don't need to; my claim was about the specific effect of one variable changing.
Speaking of clouds, a slight decrease in clouds could very easily account for the increasing temperature and be nearly impossible to quantify. How much less useful (politically) is "the clouds might be doing something, we don't know why".
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@Mps1213
Actually this is a better way of putting it. All of your evidence is what’s called negative evidence. Basically saying “I don’t accept this claim because this graph shows this.” What you need to present is positive evidence, which is direct proof of your claim.
You're confusing two different assertions.
1.) The assertion that carbon dioxide cools the planet.
2.) The rejection of the assertion that the correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature can be explained by carbon dioxide increasing temperature.
Both came from me, but only the first incurs a BoP; which I'm currently working on napkin math for you to ponder (even though verbal argument should have been enough and this demand for quantities is probably a delaying tactic.)
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Wrong continent, please engage brain dear readersRead the article genius. It’s happening in North America
So "giving to saudi arabia" is a bit of a misleading statement isn't it?
It would be more true to say that letting a Saudi eat Texas beans is "giving away american food", he might actually take some of that back to Arabia in his gut.
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Wrong continent, please engage brain dear readers
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@Mps1213
I didn't have the several hours required until this Sunday night. There are two main issues before us, first you gave
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/08/recipe-for-climate-change/ as an example of what you wanted to see supporting my claim that CO₂ increase has a net cooling effect on Earth's climate. Note that I cannot load that link (it's blocking Tor nodes most likely) so I'll be using your reproduction.
Second is the contents of that link itself, which you advance as your "math, physics, chemistry, etc..." which I will analyze and respond to.
Prior to either I wish to point out an epistemological error:
You saying the evidence you have provided is like a flat earther saying “the evidence I have provided is fine I don’t need math”
Whether that is true or not depends on their argument. An argument without quantities cannot and need not interface with math. An argument with only relative scale need only invoke a single mathematical concept "<".
For example:
or someone saying the same thing trying to debunk general relativity.
If the evidence is that they moved to alpha centauri and back in 2.3 earth years they would be correct.
The quality of your evidence isn’t good enough to make a claim with any level of confidence
This isn't a video game where you can abstract anything you want into a point system.
There is uncertainty in data, there are small sample sizes (the worst case being inability to reproduce results), and there is bad analysis (logic/argument). Note that the consequence of bad logic is that the premise is rendered irrelevant.
Those are your options when rejecting evidence. It's either false, too uncertain, or irrelevant.
Evidence doesn't fight evidence. Logic doesn't fight logic. There is only error and non-error. Probability vs probability.
I will address the two issues in at least two following posts (may have to split them up due to word limit).
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@Double_R
All the sources of irrationality (bias) may explain how a precise concept is mutilated into a blurry one and leads to confusion, but even the most reasonable people cannot use a poorly defined (imprecise) concept and make anything but conflict out of it.
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@TWS1405_2
Nevertheless straight white males need to stop raping.And yet black men are on the sex registry at a rate double that of white men.
Well you get can on those registries even if you don't rape anyone, but I have no hesitation in saying: straight black males need to stop raping.
PS I would describe gender dysphoria as an even more minor issue than homosexual marriageNo gay marriage sexually assaulted little girls in school bathrooms, or invaded girls spaces with their tallywhacker hanging out.
"gender dysphoria" is not assault. I'm trying to lead you to water here... something about the issue not justifying the remedy or reaction demanded...
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@Reece101
That would be for the best.
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@Reece101
Only if he has a hit squad of transgender males.
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It is inevitable that over a longer period of time, Barney will actually rise to the top of the moderator hierarchy. It is not because he is a better person, it is not because he is smarter it is not such things necessarily at all (and IQ wise Whiteflame is above Barney) it is because Barney is the natural alpha male of the website, people respect him without realising it, the way he carries himself and uses silence and absence at other times, makes him unpushable, unattainable and have this weird aura that people can't tame or control.
You should write short stories instead of debating, so much drama....
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@TheUnderdog
You can't deliver death online and deciding to kill someone makes you their enemy.I have no power to kill you whatsoever.
You were threatening Korea remember?
You do have the power to kill, if you didn't have the power to kill we would have solved all moral problems because we couldn't harm each other. The question is not can you kill but how will you kill and will you take responsibility for it?
For instance I support a system of government with police, it would by hypocritical and cowardly to claim to be a pacifist at the same time as I vote for and lend support towards an organization that keeps killing people in my name.
Part of that responsibility, an indispensable part is that I had better damn well know exactly why someone ought to be killed by my agents (and they are my agents if I support them morally or financially).
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@Double_R
I seriously intended to expose what I believe is the very high chance that what you are alluding to is imprecisely defined and the resulting blurriness of all moral logic is a recipe for social conflict that has and will continue to manifest.The contention in today’s political climate I think is more about equality of opportunityOpportunity to do what? (Eat ice cream?)Are you really being serious?
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@TWS1405_2
My slippery slope argument is premised on Precedential slopes, which revolve around the idea that treating a relatively minor issue (gay marriage) a certain way now will lead to us treating a relatively major issue (the sexualizing of children, grooming children, transing children, invading women's spaces, etc) the same way later on.
How did it lead there? Why? What's the connection between the two things?
PS I would describe gender dysphoria as an even more minor issue than homosexual marriage (which was lawyer trivia) because almost no one was dysphoric and the cure certainly wasn't national obsession plus the extremely questionable advise of "Just mutilate yourself and call anyone who misgenders you a bigot, that should solve the issue"
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@TWS1405_2
that slippery slope has become a reality
Slippery slopes exist, but they exist because of gravity.
You need to identify the gravity in the context you're talking about, you can just say "First this then that"
"Oh so we're allowing FedEx to just walk up to the door now? What's next? They'll eat your baby?!"
In the context of morality it's more apt to call something the implications of a principle. If people profess to a principle it is indeed more likely than not that down the road that principle will be more perfectly followed.
For example, when Thomas Jefferson wrote the declaration of independence he owned slaves; but the moral principles he claimed to believe in were a "slippery slope" towards the 13th and 14th amendments.
I don't think there is any principle involved in the LGBTQIA+ cult besides "I need to be angry about someone's oppression". They also don't care if anyone is actually being oppressed because they have no actual moral principles.
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@Double_R
Equality in the coherent political sense is equality of rights.The contention in today’s political climate I think is more about equality of opportunity
Opportunity to do what? (Eat ice cream?)
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@Critical-Tim
"Equality" is an ill defined concept today, the presumption when it entered the political discourse in the 1750s was "equality under the law" political or moral equality. That context can not be assumed, thus it becomes an empty vessel to be filled with any madness. "all men are created equal so why don't we have equal doses of ice cream HUHHUH?"
Equality in the coherent political sense is equality of rights. On that subject:
Individuals being the only concrete instances are the only ones with concrete rights. Abstractions don't have rights.
Peoples don't have rights, cultures don't have rights, races don't have rights, clubs don't have rights, even families don't have rights. Just persons.
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@TheUnderdog
You can't deliver death online and deciding to kill someone makes you their enemy. You don't warn the enemy of your intentions. Threatening to kill people online is indulging in fantasy for your own gratification. It has no tactical or rational value.
You can debate the nature of consent in this thread so it's not spread out all over the site: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/8032-most-people-dont-know-how-badly-the-pedophiles-are-treated-in-prison?page=1&post_number=17
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@Sidewalker
I refute aggressive or personal. I gave evidence of bigotry to undermine a bigoted argument.So calling people bigots and racists is back on the menu boyz.There's a billion bigot and racist sites on the internet, and these geniuses come to a debate site looking for an echo chamber LOL.FYI snowflakes, you can post all the racism and bigotry you want at Stormfront and nobody is gonna say you are a racist or bigot.
Whether someone is a bigot is entirely besides the point. It was TWS who was just claiming "truth" is an absolute defense that somehow means insults aren't insults.
Whether you think someone is a bigot is irrelevant. Whether you can prove someone is irrational and stubborn is irrelevant.
Calling someone a bigot or a racist is still an insult (unless they agree its not). This is entirely inconsistent with the so called new interpretation of the CoC (which still hasn't been updated for some reason).
As far as I'm concerned anything oromagi does himself is fair game. I won't be obeying hypocrisy.
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@oromagi
So calling people bigots and racists is back on the menu boyz.I refute aggressive or personal. I gave evidence of bigotry to undermine a bigoted argument.
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@Mps1213
Well not only have you moved away from scientific argument but you're getting a bit rude, so I'll be brief and a bit snarky:
Of course the mass matters dude. That’s literally what regulates the atmosphere is the mass of it.
In that case CO₂ on earth isn't a problem because it's not that much extra mass. You can't have it both ways.
Which is why I brought up the blanket analogy.
I was the one who pointed out that thermal mass was insulating, you used the blanket analogy in terms of radiative scattering. This is my position, you can't take it and pretend I was wrong.
You are the one who made the claim that CO2 doesn’t warm the atmosphere. What is your mathematical, chemical, and physical evidence for that? State sound evidence (that doesn’t fly in the face of established chemistry, physics and math) and you can end this debate.
Convection is physics. So is scattering. The absorbance spectrum of the atmosphere is theoretically predicted and empirically measured. It's 100% for the bands involving blackbody radiation from Earth and CO₂. 100% means that there was never a direct path out which means energy in these bands has always been radiated above the ground.
Convection has always been the primary means of transporting energy that would be eventually radiated out in these bands because the thermal mass of the atmosphere is enormous compared to the radiative behavior of a trace gas.
Convection = unaffected, no reduction in cooling
Absorbance of solar radiation = reduced, reduction in warming
Small effects, but the net is cooling
This is not a novel argument it's the exact same one I already made, I just condensed it. I won't repeat it again.
Lol, dude I have taken more atmospheric science classes and chemistry and physics classes than you have even considered taking.
Then I'm afraid the quality of education has deteriorated significantly. How do you expect this arrogance will serve your purpose?
Simply put, it is physically impossible for increasing CO2 concentrations to not have a warming effect on the climate.
That's a strong claim. Math, physics, chemistry please?
Enroll in the degree I’m enrolled in. Geoscience with a focus on data analytics
If they do for me what they've apparently done for you, it wouldn't be worth it if it was free.
then maybe you will have the ability to talk down to me about speaking to professors about a scientific topic.
You talked down to yourself by implying a professor was needed to make the arguments you couldn't. There were much more graceful ways to concede that you had exhausted the depth of your reasoning on this matter. You started, but you let pride get the better of you.
I was telling you if you can actually disprove this established science, you should have a scientist look at it to make sure it makes sense.
I'm not the only one with a working brain, plenty of people have noticed these things and written about them. Many of them with relevant degrees (and no "climatology" is not the only relevant degree).
The argument won't die with me, it hasn't taken off because political forces don't want it to be true. This truth is far too inconvenient for too many people. If I had seen these arguments defeated I would not be using them. They are being ignored, and it seems they aren't teaching geoscience majors how to debunk these arguments I think it's safe to say they're just ignoring them.
By "they" I mean a vanishingly small number of people to be clear, people have charted the citations. The number of people actually making predictions and claims based on their own "research" could fit in a university hall. The rest either know how to read a room and shutup or assume (like you) that if there was any merit to "climate denial" somebody would have noticed.
There you have it, my hypothesis on why the so called scientists are getting it wrong. Does this hypothesis need to be proven for me to win this debate? Not at all.
When denying the flying spaghetti monster, it is not necessary to understand the priesthood of the tomato basil sauce.
Until you can provide me with concrete chemical, mathematical, and physical evidence all working in unison that doesn’t fly in the face of established science in each of those fields I will not respond.
I don't need new evidence, the existing evidence works fine. I cannot stop you from ignoring the argument.
If you can do that I will give you the email address to my physical Chemistry, my atmospheric science, and my physics 3 professor for you to speak to about the topic. They’d be very happy to have a conversation with you about it.
If they would be so happy, why not have them sign up for this site? Why keep this valuable conversation private?
No need to make it complicated, just ask the simple question: "Why does carbon dioxide concentration lag temperature?", and then tell this person to give the answer in this thread.
See if you're claiming that is not the case, then it may behoove you to debunk the graphs I've posted. If you admit the data shows this (consistently) then you should be curious enough to get an explanation from your professor.
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@oromagi
Not all LGBTQIA+ think the same about Trans people
"the LGBTQAI+-./.) Cult" is a political movement, it does not necessarily mean every sexual deviant even if TWS thinks it does and you know this.
Let's agree that heretoforward it is a sufficiently established fact that TWS1405 is a bigot and a racist.
I neither agree nor deny.
Furthermore, let's agree that no source of information that knowingly lied to the American people about the results of the 2020 election is worthy of any credibilty in Journalism. These sources must be struck utterly and permenently from the ranks of trustworthy reportage. One benefit of the Jan 6th Fool's Coup is that loyal Americans need never pretend the Daily Caller, the New York Post
New York Post article lying about the results of the 2020 'election' please. (Since your looking for agreement)
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@Greyparrot
DoubleR likes to find experts to trust in based on a track record of "results". Results are easy to find when people are producing a functional object, but the results of philosophers and most scientists are arguments.Dr. Thomas Sowell in his book "Black Rednecks" claims the bell curve exists because of cultural disparities between Blacks in the South and Blacks in the North. It has nothing to do with genetics.
Upon that criteria I trust Thomas Sowell more than almost anyone else, in the same league with Ayn Rand.
He simply does not say things without a good argument that he's happy to relate (as far as I know)
In this case though, that's only the start of the story. I think recent times are better explained by one simple phrase: "I'm with the government and I'm here to help"
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@Mps1213
“The density of carbon dioxide is higher on Mars. That is the number of CO₂ struck on average by a photon radiated from the surface is greater than Earth.”Over simplifying man. Mars’ atmosphere has less than 1% the mass of Earth’s atmosphere. So yes it does have a higher concentration of CO2 in its total mass of the atmosphere but it has a much, much smaller atmosphere. You’re nit picking and bending evidence.
The mass is irrelevant, we're talking about #particles here. Do you want me to give it in moles rather than partial pressure? Is the average temperature the factor you think is missing because it will only skew the numbers further in my favor.
This is no more a nitpick than mentioning Venus.
Yet science seemed to work that way when you said CO₂ concentration and temperature were joined at the hip and posted a graph (of the same data) with only two variables.Doesn't your own argument here defeat your original contribution to this thread?No, because you can see they are joined at the hip. When rises the other rises.
Agreed, but how is that you are allowed to conclude that with only two variables?
If there are disturbances in that pattern, something else caused it, when you are not bringing that secondary cause into the correlation between the two, then you aren’t painting the whole picture.
You assume the pattern I pointed out is a disturbance. Why is it that the alternative is not a disturbance? Is it fair to say the more prevalent case is the one that is not disturbed? In that case which is the anomaly and which is the norm?
And you saying “no all of your math, physics and chemistry are wrong look at this anomaly I found”
Only two problems with that story:
1.) Carbon lagging temperature is the norm not the anomaly. We have about a dozen examples, with several being consecutive. I'm sure I can out-number the inverse scenario for as long as you have patience.
2.) You haven't provided math or chemistry, and the physics you provided isn't wrong it's just a factoid that you never crafted into a complete argument.
The response is “yes that is an anomaly but can be explained with X, the variable you didn’t include while making your point is the only reason your point exists.”
Why would I have the BoP to dispute what the data shows?
And yes there are example of CO2 rising first. They’re called Dansgaard Oeschger events. Temperature rises 5-15 degrees Celsius in under 25 years. That’s what must happen for an event to be labeled as one of those. The latest one was the Bolling-Allerod ~14,000 years ago.
There are examples (seemed like every peak to me) in the last century, I posted the graph.
All them have CO2 rising simultaneously with the temp, because it is a self feeding cycle.
Perfect simultaneity rules out either causing the other, and there is no reason to believe such a thing has ever happened. The error bars are days even with modern data.
Well I kept waiting for you to figure it out, but you haven't shown any curiosity about it. The the reason CO₂ follows temperature is that warmer oceans can dissolve less CO₂. It's not the glaciers, I mean yes the glaciers will release CO₂ but that's like blaming the pilot light for the house warming up.
It's not a self-feeding cycle (differential equation) because the CO₂ has a tiny effect and it's almost certainly a cooling effect.
Prove the concrete math, physics and chemistry wrong. Using the same parameters they have to use, which are the laws of physics. If it’s so obvious it should be very easy to do.
I will attempt to prove your mathematical, physical, and chemical arguments wrong (or more more likely irrelevant) just as soon as you provide some (more).
Also when you’re talking about thousands and tens of thousands of years ago. You’d be very lucky for a single point on the graph not to span a century or two. So you asking for a graph that shows a release of CO2 before a big jump in temperature is a tall ask.
If you're claiming that the ice-core data doesn't have the temporal accuracy required to determine which came first then we can agree to discard it. Again, I posted a recent much more temporarily accurate graph.
Send it in to a physics of chemistry professor and have them look at it and see what he says.
Since you told me I was wrong despite the fact that my arguments remain standing perhaps you are the one who needs to go find a professor so you can make new arguments, or better yet just have them log into your account and debate for you.
As far as I'm concerned I met any BoP that I may have incurred by ruling out a possibility using the solar blocking argument. I'm not going to guess about which particular part you found unconvincing.
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@Mps1213
However you’re just over simplifying everything and are just blatantly wrong about some stuff. The average temperature of Jupiter is not 24,000 degrees C. I’m not sure where you saw that or who told you that. The average temperature of that planet is -234 degree C.
That is the top of the atmosphere of Jupiter (actually measurable from a distance).
To keep the comparison fair you would need to compare the outermost layers of Venus' atmosphere and Earth's outermost layers. In other words compare with no thermal mass insulation.
This would be a boring comparison as the emitted energy will always be balanced with the solar irradiance in the respective orbit (with slight over-emission due to bleeding geothermal). That is the definition of the equilibrium point.
You admitted the atmosphere is very thin, so of course it being primarily CO2 won’t cause a warm planet because the atmosphere is so thin It has little effect.
The density of carbon dioxide is higher on Mars. That is the number of CO₂ struck on average by a photon radiated from the surface is greater than Earth.
That’s like saying “blankets don’t help warm you up” and using a piece of paper with holes in it as you example.
No, it's like you're claiming that in the combined system of: a thin piece of paper with holes in it + a layer of wool, the thin piece of paper with holes in it is the only insulating factor.
I am showing you an example of a slightly thicker piece of paper with holes in it (Martian atmosphere) and showing you that it doesn't insulate.
The thin piece of paper = a small amount of carbon dioxide, the "greenhouse blanket"
My theory, and I say "my" with a smirk because it's basic thermodynamics; is that the wool is the enormous (by comparison) mass of oxygen and nitrogen on Earth. These gasses do not participate in the IR scattering that "greenhouse" gasses do, but they have kinetic energy, they move, and they interact with those "greenhouse" gasses, the surface, and even space (yes they will dump energy to space too, it's not a superpower).
You point to Venus with its 10x layer of recycled paper insulation even thicker than Earth's wool and say "look how hot that is", but that fits my theory perfectly. Lots of thermal mass means lots of insulation. The fact that it's CO₂ has got nothing to do with it as Mars (and physical theory) proves.
also, again, show me math, laws of physics, equations, etc. that support your claim that it’s impossible for CO2 to warm the atmosphere.
The laws of physics which describe how can CO₂ block some of the solar radiation is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_transfer. You don't need to calculate anything to have an intuitive understanding. Standing in fog is an analogous situation and if the fog is thick enough it becomes dark and the net effect of greater scattering density can easily be seen to approach reflection.
i.e. clouds look like solid white objects when they are dense enough and you are far enough away.
There is no math or experiment to prove that causes must precede effects, this is implied by the pure logic of the definitions of those concepts. You are asking for the equation that proves contradictions don't exist or time is real. It is nonsensical and (no offense) obtuse.
Math that is solid enough to over write the many ways of proving it does.
Contradictions don't exist. If one argument proves X and another proves ~X one of the arguments is wrong. If is inductive it might be merely be wrong, but if it is deductive it is necessarily unsound.
I've seen no way that proves it deductively nor any strong arguments concluding it does.
The deductive argument that cause must precede effect defeats the inductive (and IMO weak) argument based on the naive assumption that Earth's thermodynamics can be reduced to radiative equilibrium in a few bandwidths and even then that the scattering effects all work only to warm the Earth and not to cool it.
You’re doing what’s called anomaly hunting. Where there’s piles and piles of evidence to support that CO2 warms the atmosphere and you’re finding little anomalies and saying “look see you’re wrong.”
There were about a dozen peaks of CO₂ concentration which followed peak temperature in the graphs I posted. Are you claiming there are an overwhelming number of examples where the situation is reversed? Is it so hard to find them? Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence that the examples I showed all happened consecutively?
Put particulate matter on the graph, put sulfur in the graph. You have to have every variable accounted for, and there are thousands. You’re only accounting for two and think you are disproving something. Science simply doesn’t work like that.
Yet science seemed to work that way when you said CO₂ concentration and temperature were joined at the hip and posted a graph (of the same data) with only two variables.
Doesn't your own argument here defeat your original contribution to this thread?
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@Best.Korea
I wouldnt exactly compare boy changing to girl and wearing a dress and make up to be equal to jumping out a window.
Well there is no such thing as a boy changing to a girl. There is mutilation to various degrees and there is non-mutilation. The worst mutilation can be much worse over the full lifetime than a broken bone that heals well.
Wearing a dress I'll grant is easily forgotten as an embarrassing phase provided it was truly an original will of the child which is not at all certain given how they're wired to absorb information.
For example there is a world of difference between a child masturbating, and a child masturbating as a homework assignment or tik tok challenge.
Let me put it this way. Child's body is owned by that child. However, no one is forced to provide a child with surgery. Surgery requires the consent of both child and adult who does the surgery. Therefore, child cannot force an adult to perform surgery on a child.
That argument applies to adults, I wouldn't trust the ethics of any doctor who assisted in mutilation.
For children it goes farther. If you find them cutting themselves because they identify as scarface you have a right (this is my feeling I can't prove it) to stop them.
I have a theory of objective ethics, and I suspect that there is a lower age where almost no child could truly understand it. That is the absolute minimum for the age of maturity.Sorry, but you dont get to decide when someone owns his own body and when not.
Without objective ethics, I get to decide whatever I want provided I shoot the opposition first.
Also, there is no point at which you own a person. Even if person doesnt know anything, it still stands that you dont own that person. Therefore, there is no point at which you can make decisions regarding someone else's body.
They say "legal guardian" not "legal owner". The idea is the same as a regent acting as king until the child comes of age to take the throne. You can also have an estate in waiting, indispensable until the age of maturity.
Ownership isn't necessarily identical to control, however care must be taken to distinguish the two as stewardship could easily be used as an excuse to steal and oppress.
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@Best.Korea
I'm not going to pretend there isn't a legitimate conflict of interest here. Parents want to extend their period of control much longer than the instincts of the child steer them towards obedience.Refusing to indulge in a childs dangerous fantasy is not forcing anything on them besides what reality would eventually.Denying a child the use of own body is forcing your will on the child. Forcing your will on the child is making that child a slave. Slavery is harmful. Therefore, denying a child the use of own body is harmful.
The age of maturity has consistently migrated up throughout history as civilization becomes more complex and people had more time to have families of their own.
However there is certainly a period where a child's whim must be overridden by the better judgement of their elders. To call that slavery is disingenuous. Yes it involves ignoring consent while controlling the body but this problem is intrinsic to our species.
It is not entirely tied to age, in fact there may come a day when it can be more precisely identified and I would loosely define that point in a person's development as the moment of critical thought. A state of enlightenment where the individual moves beyond merely trusting authority figures.
Some people never get there, these grown "children" do much harm to society, but because the temptation to control is too dangerous it is better that they be treated like adults lest adults be treated like children.
In any case, children will jump out a window with a sheet as a parachute and even though there is no guarantee they'll ever grow out of that lack of rationality at least for that time their liberty is not yet justified.
I have a theory of objective ethics, and I suspect that there is a lower age where almost no child could truly understand it. That is the absolute minimum for the age of maturity.
This is also an extreme example of "using their body", we're not talking about climbing a tree or masturbating. This is the permanent mutilation that destroys many primal functions of the human body. Nothing could be a better example of the kind of thing children should be prevented from doing. I see it as highly analogous to my arguments against pederasty but even more well founded because the scars are physical.
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@Greyparrot
It's a deep state position.isn't corporate subsidies a right wing position?
Corruption & powerlust vs transparency and accountability is the politcal compass test of this era. Everything else is secondary because there is no point agreeing on policy when crooks run your country and will suppress any political movement that interrupts their protection racket.
Liberty is the solution though, their exploiting trust created by an imperfect respect of individual liberty.
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@Best.Korea
Refusing to indulge in a childs dangerous fantasy is not forcing anything on them besides what reality would eventually.Adults do NOT have any "right" to force their debauchery onto non-adults.So you have no right to force a child to be a boy if a child wants to be a girl.
It's better to stop them before they try to parachute out the window with a sheet.
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@TWS1405_2
All that enormous smaug-like wealth off political capital and institutional trust... wasted on mutilation and targeting children... what an absolute shame.Huh?
I am saying that if they went this far before being stopped, they had the power to do just about anything twenty years ago.
Legalizing bestiality for instance would hardly produce this level of backlash.
Now cutting spending, that was impossible. People get Epsteined for agendas like that.
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@TWS1405_2
All that enormous smaug-like wealth off political capital and institutional trust... wasted on mutilation and targeting children... what an absolute shame.
What I could have done with such power.
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@Double_R
I was going to say this sounds like the same sensationalist spin they put on Trump, but then I saw your comment. Your standards are now more than a light year apart.Um, yeah. So in other words, Biden is far more intense and driven behind the scenes than most people think. This article sounds more like a campaign ad.Is there a point I’m missing here?
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@Mps1213
Of course CO2 isn’t the only cause of warming, so just saying the temperature doesn’t perfectly match the increase in CO2 doesn’t mean anything.
That appears to contradict your previous statement:
You can see that CO2 and the global temperature are connected at the hip.
You can't have it both ways. Carbon dioxide and temperature are definitely correlated, then and now. Time delays provide information crucial to narrowing down physical theories that could explain it.
“To warm requires an increase in kinetic energy of gas-on-gas interaction, simply having a modification of the electron cloud energy would be meaningless.”This isn’t true. [... talking about the concept of insulation ....]
It is true, and I think you missed the point. Given the same number of possible states greater temperature is defined as greater energy. This is not and cannot be a purely optical phenomenon or else it would not invoke thermodynamics at all. A perfect mirror or window doesn't get warmer.
“If you could detect the average altitude of origin for the photons leaving Earth in the carbon dioxide absorbance bands what do you think it would be?”I’m not really sure what you’re asking here or why it is important. CO2 layers stretch a wide range in the atmosphere. And this reflection of infrared light will be occurring at all levels.
There are photons emitted and absorbed in a solid object, but those aren't the ones that radiate out into the system. Only the skin of the solid object does. The situation with Earth must necessarily be between the extreme of emitting from a layer a few atoms thick (a solid) or emitting from the surface without impedance (for any given wavelength).
I would suggest to you that the atmosphere is already opaque to the bands in question and all emission of radiation within those bands originates from the upper atmosphere where it can escape without striking more gas. Furthermore it has been this was for a long time, and that if our atmosphere was 100% carbon dioxide it would serve only to thin the emission layer at the top of the atmosphere.
“Correlation is not necessarily causation. From first principles there are always four options:”You’re right, unless you can prove an action causes another action. It can and has been proven that CO2 causes a warming effect on the earth.
I just proved that cannot be the case since effect cannot precede cause.
“Can you think of a way increasing surface temperatures could cause increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels?”Yes, I said it in the sentence you quoted. Glaciers contain CO2, when they melt due to increased surface temperature CO2 is released. that doesn’t mean that the temperature rise caused the CO2 rise
It certainly means, temperature rise caused some CO₂ rise, but again this is small scale compared to the effect I refer to.
They both influence each other.
A differential equation then. As a geoscience major have you been shown any such equation that has been fit to the data?
And easy way to disprove the idea that CO2 warms the atmosphere is to find a time in ice core graphs where the CO2 rises sharply, but the temperature doesn’t follow.
The ice-core data shows that CO₂ follows temperature. Each instance where it does temperature doesn't follow CO₂ and the burden you set is met. Therefore it disproves the idea that CO₂ warms the atmosphere.
Here is the graph again: https://larouchepub.com/special_report/2019/co2_reduction_is_mass_murder/Images/24.jpg
Notice how huge the scale of time is, some of those delays are hundreds if not thousands of years.
By that same token CO2 is considered one of the most important gases in our atmosphere because of its ability to trap and release heat, without it, the earth would be much colder and not very hospitable.
CO₂ is important because it is intrinsically linked to our biosphere metabolism. As a thermodynamic component it is insignificant, convection accounts for the vast majority of heat transfer away from the surface and always has. Water particulate (not just vapor) is the overwhelming factor in radiative insulation and since we are the cold side of this blanket insulation cools.
If you could block the entire blackbody radiation of Earth via atmospheric gasses (210-310k, see second curve) that would cool our planet because convection would continue as it always has but that band of solar radiation would be blocked in the upper atmosphere and never reach the surface.
If you look at a temperature graph of the atmosphere you can see hot layers, that is precisely what is happening already and it would only happen more.
You can also look at the planet Venus, that has runaway greenhouse effect 90+% of that atmosphere is CO2 and it’s the hottest planet in our solar system, that isn’t a coincidence.
Yes it is.
Thermal mass matters whether it is solid, liquid, or gas. Venus has a lot of atmosphere and his highly volcanic. i.e. it has a thick blanket and a heater inside it. Any planet with a hot core is going to be warmer the deeper you go into the thermal mass, it's a coincidence (with respect to the composition of Venus' atmosphere) that Venus's solid surface is so deep into the thermal mass.
Example: Jupiter, some say there is a rocky or icy core down there. If there is let's call that its surface. There is not carbon dioxide to speak of, and certainly no solar radiation getting to this surface. What is the estimated temperature? 24,000°C
That would make Jupiter a hotter planet than Venus wouldn't it?
How about Mars? Also has an atmosphere which is almost entirely carbon dioxide, not a contender for the warmest planet. In fact it's cold as hell. They say its core is frozen and much more importantly the atmosphere is thin. It gets less sun than we do, and we get less than Venus but that is an eminently calculable factor and does not explain these differences.
Below you lament the lack of equations, although I answer that complaint let's do some math for fun. Let's calculate whether Mars has a greater partial pressure of carbon dioxide than Earth. In the "greenhouse" theory our nitrogen and oxygen make no difference. In Mars we have the perfect experiment of this proposition. If there is more carbon dioxide molecules for radiation to strike it should produce a greater warming regardless of the presence of other gasses.
Mars average surface pressure: 610 Pa
CO₂ composition (assumed by moles): 95%
Earth average surface pressure: 101 kPa
CO₂ composition: 417.06 ppm = 0.0417%
Despite the thin atmosphere Mars has more carbon dioxide than Earth's atmosphere, 13 times more to be quantitative. The solar irradiance of Mars's orbit is 43.1% of Earth's.
13 times Earth's "greenhouse gas" and about half its input power. If these things were linear (which they most certainly are not) 13*43.1% = 5.9.... Mars is not 5.9 warmer than Earth. Why do a back of the napkin ratio that I know is physically irrelevant? To prove a point about a false sense of rigor. The fact that I did math doesn't mean I didn't trample over and ignore critical details of the physical system.
Saying "Look Venus is hot and there is a lot of CO₂" tramples over critical details of the physical systems without even the veneer of math.
That doesn’t mean I’m knowledgeable enough to combat every claim you make, that also doesn’t mean I’m wrong.
The fact that the dataset you cited doesn't fit the hypothesis advanced does.
You’re disagreeing with physics, not the people practicing it, but the laws of it. You’re disagreeing with chemistry, not the people who practice it, but the science of it.
Nowhere have I implied or invoked a contradiction of any independently verifiable experiment or law of physics or chemistry. You seem dead set on moving away from the science itself towards discussing authority, motivations, and what it would take to convince you to abandon your trust in institutions.
I will allow myself to be tugged in that direction and speak on it briefly after this, but I note in no uncertain terms: It was you who stopped debating the science.
They don’t even claim the climate is anything to panic over yet, if you read their full reports which I do.
There are those who debate only because they wish to avoid draconian de-industrialization. They are content with a compromise where they accept bad science so long as it isn't turned into suicidal policy.
I am not one such person, I do not compromise on the truth. I do not care who is panicking over what or what the solutions might be. The problem (of too much CO₂) does not exist.
The problem of climate change may exist, but we didn't cause it and we can't stop it; so the sooner we drop the disproved theories and start looking for accurate predictions the faster we can prepare... but in all honesty the preparations for every scenario look much the same: We need more power (scotty).
There is a very strong consensus on the mechanisms for CO2 warming the atmosphere, even people like Stephen Kunin who argue we aren’t the driving force, or at least there isn’t enough certainty in the data to make that claim, agrees that we have had a warming effect on the planet.
If only here were here to debate it I could ask him why temperature lags carbon dioxide concentration.
So trust the physics that are out there for us to read, and I don’t think it’s as easy to disprove as you’re making it out to be.
One would certainly hope that is the case, but since no one has yet been able to debunk my arguments and I never hear these experts challenged with the arguments (or counter arguments) I make that hope is so far unfounded.
I suspect there is a tendency to overestimate how much has actually been reviewed by peer review. If the positive argument was public perhaps there would be more scrutiny, as it is the models and the data remain shrouded in an unjustifiable fog.
If that wasn't the case, why is it that for nearly a decade of attempted debates it always comes down to this:
Another thing I will say is that it isn’t just one party of scientists coming to this conclusion. Mathematicians, biologists, geoscientists, atmospheric scientists, chemists, and physical scientists all see that CO2 warms the atmosphere and all have proven it using their methods of science.
If the argument was public, accessible, salient, and sound why can no one argue for it? Why does it always end in an appeal to authority?
That is a red flag.
For example, when I first learned about how CO2 works in my physical chemistry class. It took probably 35 minutes of math to explain why this happens, you have provided no math in your rebuttals, it requires math to prove or disprove physical properties of particles, especially when dealing with heat transfer. If you can find a way to disprove it mathematically then I will value your statements more.That’s a very tall ask for people to agree with you, when you’ve provided no science, math, equations, laws, etc.
That which was "proven" without equations needs no equations to disprove. In fact there is no requirement either way. An argument with an equation can disprove an argument without an equation and an argument without an equation can disprove an argument with an equation.
You set before me a false standard. No matter how much math or time it took you to learn something, if what you learned is not being contested and is irrelevant to my arguments I need not defeat or replace those theories. My arguments stand.
I debate, I don't "ask people to agree with me"; I challenge their reasons against my own. If they provide no reasons, there is nothing more I can do.
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I'd vote democrat if the democrat was RFK or Tulsi Gabbard.
The only checkbox I care about is "Deep state puppet" is unchecked... which means probably DJT again.
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@Intelligence_06
Just let them die. You are no business to them, they don't have to be no business to you. You aren't even Canadian, you can't decide for them.
We can never know what it's like to suck maple syrup through the hockey face plate day in and day out. Constantly having to feed the polar bear and remembering to say "if you don't mind", "sorry", and of course "eh".
It takes a toll.
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@Mps1213
The data have proven that CO2 and other greenhouse gasses warm the environment. That is not arguable.
It is and I will argue such.
Let’s take look at how this works physically. CO2 absorbs energy at a variety of wavelengths between 2,000 and 15,000 nanometers.
Let's be a bit more precise:
(Note top graph is in terms of photons not power)
Infrared light falls within that spectrum of energy. When the CO2 absorbs the infrared energy it excites an electron into a different shell. When that electron is done vibrating it comes back to its normal state and shoots the infrared in random direction. Not all of it will be shot back towards earth, some will be shot into space. However the more CO2 added to the atmosphere the more infrared will be shot back towards the earth. When that infrared bounces back off the earth it will then be absorbed by CO2 again the cycle repeats. The more CO2 there is the more bouncing between earth and the atmosphere occurs, therefore warming the planet.
If there wasn't another course the energy could take it wouldn't do much warming. To warm requires an increase in kinetic energy of gas-on-gas interaction, simply having a modification of the electron cloud energy would be meaningless.
So you must then grant that if a molecule of carbon dioxide strikes another particle while in an excited state the shells interact with each other in such a way that no secondary photon is transmitted, instead the energy becomes bulk kinetic energy as the particles push off each other harder than they would have absent an excited electron.
Although it would be helpful if we could isolate the elements of the system as we can sometimes in a lab, here we must concede that energy does not merely move by scattering or blackbody radiation but also by convection and conduction.
Leading to my question for you: If you could detect the average altitude of origin for the photons leaving Earth in the carbon dioxide absorbance bands what do you think it would be?
Scientists don’t just make up terms like greenhouse gasses because they’re bored, that name was made because of this phenomenon.
I won't comment on the motivations or pasttimes of those with academic credentials, that would serve only to distract from the proper arguments over the science itself.
CO2 stays the atmosphere for 300-1,000 years.
Carbon dioxide as a molecule would be stable for billions of years in Earth's atmosphere and radiation. This statement is of questionable meaning and relevance.
It could refer to the average time that a single molecule spends in the atmosphere before being captured by a plant stomata, but why should we care about that? A single water molecule may spend a fifty thousand years in the ocean on average before it evaporates, and lands in again as a raindrop. That doesn't mean the rain is any less reliable.
The carbon dioxide levels will continue to drop so long as there is stable biomass to construct or carbon is buried. The previous level was not intrinsic to Earth geology but to Earth life, the plants will eat it up until it is so sparse that they cannot bury it with their rotting corpses (as happened in the carboniferous when this system was established).
Ironically one of the so called effects of "man made global climate change" will indeed result from increased carbon dioxide, worse forest fires; but not because carbon dioxide causes warming which causes things to dry out a little faster. Rather plants will grow faster which will increase the rate at which dead-fall and brambles build up. While wet areas will see only an increase in decomposition the dry areas (that have always had wildfires) will see more violent fires which means wider fires as faster combustion allows for more water to be boiled off than before.
Of course humans continue to bury captured carbon with wild-abandon in landfills and if we tried I'm sure we could bury it faster; but it would be better for those who live in areas with wildfires to get used to them either by building fireproof civilization or starting their own wildfires regularly.
Also, it is very much proven that CO2 has had a big role to play in warming the climate times in our past. This is a link to a graph that shows the changes in both temperature and CO2 over the past 400,000 years. Using molecular Proxies. You can see that CO2 and the global temperature are connected at the hip. One rises as the other does, at least in the past 400,000 years that has been the case.
Correlation is not necessarily causation. From first principles there are always four options:
- Coincidence
- A causes B
- B causes A
- A and B are both caused by some common cause C (through some chain of causation)
Coincidence can be ruled out by large sample sizes (and for now I won't question the quality of the data). The other three are not so easily excluded.
One way to distinguish between 2 and 3 is order of events, take as a given that events in the future cannot cause things in the present or past. Then B comes after A, B cannot cause A.
That leaves us with A causing B, or a common cause.
So let's overlay and zoom in on that data (I'm pretty sure this is the same icecore data your link graphs):
This isn't an artifact of the ice core data (but even that would need to be explained very thoroughly before the dates of the ice core data could be trusted again). It's happening now too:
Another reason this cycle isn’t good, is because glaciers trap enormous amounts of CO2 as they freeze. As they begin to thaw, they release that CO2 into the atmosphere.
A drop in the bucket compared to the oceans which also contain dissolved carbon dioxide, perfectly leading to my second question: Can you think of a way increasing surface temperatures could cause increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels? (A causes B)?
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@TWS1405_2
A) They have a right to do what they want with their bodyThis has nothing to do with abortion.
I would recommend you disable that political rhetoric caching you have going on, this is a nonsensical remark given the context.
B) Many reasonable interpretations of the Hippocratic oath would prevent a healer from promoting or assisting.Any interpretation that multiplies the original oath ultimately destroys it (i.e. it renders it null and void, useless)!!
If "multiplies" = "mutilates", that seems like a tautological statement.
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@TWS1405_2
A lot like adult gender reassignment surgery.
A) They have a right to do what they want with their body
B) Many reasonable interpretations of the Hippocratic oath would prevent a healer from promoting or assisting.
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Look, if it was a giant phallus that would just be sexual education. It would also be a lot better art than this thing that only makes sense while you are physically looking at the photograph.
I mean think about the colossus of Rhodes. You sailed between the legs you know. Stunning and brave right?
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