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Bullish

A member since

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Total posts: 1,503

Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
Supa wtf
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
Out of drafter, speed, and water, water is my weakest town read, and all my reads on him are from DP1.

I don't have a read on Pie, but hes role confirmed, copped inno, and we know he can't be godfather and there's probably no mafia lawyer.

I went back and re-read water's reaction to being accused. He's way too passive about sussing Single back. I was think the whole day it could have been a bus.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
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@Speedrace
shit that's right
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
Yeah I'm role confirmed. Why would I claim EVEN night comedian, just happen to be the ONLY even night power role, and Single just HAPPENS to be EVEN night double RB?
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
With oro dying that fucks up my scum team.

There's gotta be 1 more scum in

2. Drafterman
3. WaterPhoenix
4. SpeedRace
6. iLikePie5 

But I clear drafter, water, and speed on town behaviour reads, and Pie is role confirmed.

Unless it really is a 2 mafia scum team and a TP?

If the TP is a survivor then we're good, we joint win. Might be since there haven't been any SK kills.


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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
lynch luna today, no-lynch tomorrow, I can get 1 more set of results.

Mafia can't kill me because im their best mislynch.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP5
LUNATIC IS GODFATHER, HATED TOWNIE, OR DOCTOR

VTL Lunatic
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Posted in:
Deception Detection in Online MafiaGame Interactions - Lisa Fu

In this project, we use deep learning to detect deception through online conversations in the interaction-based party game Mafia. We present various neural network frameworks (LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, CNN) to generate predictions of deceptive text. The results of this paper suggest the capability of neural network architectures to effectively detect deception in the Mafia setting, and offer qualitative analysis in agreement with current deception research findings.

We have trained tensorflow frameworks based on unidirectional LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, as well as CNN, that successfully perform deception detection on online Mafia game interactions using the Mafiascum dataset [3]. All three models performed above baseline accuracy (81.6%), with 88.8% (unidirectional LSTM), 94.7% (bidirectional LSTM), and 94.9% (CNN). This suggests that deeplearning techniques may be able to effectively identify linguistic cues that signal deception.
Emphasis mine

This is a relatively recent paper (March 18, 2019). I wonder how this compares against good players here.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Speedrace
Cause then the players sussing me won't be distracted and waste a lynch on me.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Speedrace
Us lynching Singularity doesn't change your chances of being NKd lol
Actually it does cause if we lynch Single and he turns out to be town, then canonically we all get NK'd.

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Lunatic
No he claimed he was told he died because the mod forgot he was BP
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South Park Mafia DP4
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@Speedrace
Plus, what if Supa just decides to put their claim into your roles. Boom, useless info
But there's a chance it COULD be useful info.

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Speedrace
But killing me is good cause some people here are still sussing me, so that's 1 less mislynch target
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
Actually supa just told me I am RBable
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Lunatic
He can't claim RB he was never dreamer in the first place

Why would you even say he was RB'd unless you RB'd him, he's literally BP.

Also my role is not a visit so traditionally it shouldn't even be RBable.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
Ok but I'm a player in the game and it'll inform me going forward.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Lunatic
Or their RB is 1 shot
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South Park Mafia DP4
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@Lunatic
Except I get results and I want them results

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
Actually if drafter is lynchproof then he can't possibly be scum, cause if hes lynchproof scum then scum have already won.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
Oh wait no I get it. Can we lynch drafter today and prove he's lynchproof? It's the same effect as no-lynching at MyLo, and it gets him semi-confirmed since lynchproof is usually town sided.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
But you can't confirm they're lying. You'll just make it you can them which is the position we're in right now.
What?
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South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
To mention again, the other option is if I die, you get a clear path to lynch, instead of having to choose between me or oro in the end.

Also if I die, I get to blame you for losing the game.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
VTNL, I'll comedian either single or lunatic. Worst case is I do not confirm or exonerate them. Best case is I confirm they're lying about their role and a scum role is included in my results. The potential for peace of mind is there.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
I love WIFOM tho
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
If I die, you would have a straight path to lynch single, lunatic, and oro.

If I live, I get results.

VTNL is a win-win situation.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
If it's a drafter/water/speed team then I'm done.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
VTNL

It's MyLo. I get a set of results tomorrow. The best part though is that mafia can't kill me, because I'm their best mislynch target.

Also I'm telling you this scum, I'm not lynching drafter no matter what.

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
Exactly one of Water and Oro is scum.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
Yall are a bunch of liars, I wish LAL was still policy.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
drafter, if you conclude that Single is scum, then you must also conclude that I am also scum, if we go by my logic.

Your perspective from my perspective:

1. Lunatic -
2. Drafterman - TOWN (self)
3. WaterPhoenix - TOWN (by interaction with Single)
4. SpeedRace - TOWN (by interaction with Single)
5. Bullish -
6. iLikePie5 - TOWN (role mod confirmed)
7. Oromagi -
8. Singularity - SCUM

Leaving 2 scum out of 3 in Lunatic, me, and oro.

I semi-confirmed oro, which means if I'm town, then oro is town. But that's impossible, since again that would mean there's only 2 scum, Sinlge and Lunatic. Therefore the only viable option is that I am also scum, and made a mistake "confirming" oro for town cred.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
I've lost some town games but I've never been as unsure as I am in this one.
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South Park Mafia DP4
The only scum game I could find Water in he claimed mafia 4 posts in then lynched himself.
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South Park Mafia DP4
Aslo why did virt just happen to flip this DP? Doesn't that make the janitor kind of useless?
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@drafterman
I've been running down some scum teams.

1. Lunatic -
2. Drafterman - TOWN (by behaviour)
3. WaterPhoenix -
4. SpeedRace -
5. Bullish - TOWN
6. iLikePie5 - TOWN (role mod confirmed)
7. Oromagi - TOWN (I confirmed kind of)
8. Singularity -

Speed and Single's interaction suggests there is at most 1 scum between them.

Single and Water's interactions suggest there is at most 1 scum between them.

If single is scum, then neither Speed or Water are. Which only leaves Lunatic. Which means there are only 2 scum out of 12, which is very imba (unless there is TP).

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
I agree that behaviourally, water is town.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
But I also can't imagine why mafia would fake claim doc + watch DP1, with what, only 3 claims before hand? If I was full doc or full watch I'd CC that immediately. Also, a watcher claim could be countered with results any time you claim to use it. That's super ballsy for mafia.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
On NP1, that is.
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South Park Mafia DP4
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@Speedrace
If you're going to NL, please explain why Singularity wouldn't have been RBd
It's possible mafia only had 1x RB in a JOAT.

Then again I can't imagine why mafia wouldn't have just RB'd Single and killed grey, or RB'd grey and killed single.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
Aslo as far as I can imply about my role, I can't be roleblocked.
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South Park Mafia DP4
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@Speedrace
once again, I named Oro, which is NOT a visit, and got that his role could be one of Vanilla, Vig, or Doctor.

I asked but got not definitive answer to these potential variations in the role:

1. Is vanilla townie and goon mafia distinguished?

2. Are all 3 roles necessarily in the game?
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
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@Singularity
I tend to not be one who over thinks things, but I'm gonna do that here.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP4
If only press would have been fucking active so he could use that suicide bomber role and we wouldn't be at mylo.
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Posted in:
Mafia Mod Sign-Up List
Ongoing
SupaDudz: South Park - DP3

Sign-ups
drafterman (DART Survivor Season 1)

In the Hopper
Speedrace (Captain America: Civil War)
TUF- Recycled Roles mafia
ILikePie5 - Pick 1: Narcos, Riverdale, Bakugan Battle Brawlers
warren- open setup, likely themeless
Zaradi - Borderlands
Virtuoso
Bullish (Memes of the 2010's)

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
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@Speedrace
I have role justification, but I can see in past Supa games, some roles have justification and some don't.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
Today I'd be down for a lynch on Lunatic or PressF. My secondary pool is SpeedRace and Oromagi.

If there are 3 scum within these 4, then we've won, because we get 1 mislynch.


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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
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@Lunatic
I guess it could be a gambit where he forfeited the kill, but then I don't even know why he would have claimed dreamer.
Actually would make a lot of sense. If scum attempted to kill Grey and failed, a BP claim is the perfect gambit especially with the "I knew I was the NK target because of mod error".

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
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@Lunatic
We all know nothing is for sure. One day you can scum read someone, the next you may town them. Kinda like how you did that with drafter, based on almost nothing after gunning for him hard dp1 XD
Don't call what I did nothing that's just insulting. I spent 5 hours sunday reading the entirety of the FT Nightless game on DDO, and came to the conclusion based on meta that drafter is town.

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
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@Vader
I do love how we're breaking trends and posting more in later DPs.
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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
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@Lunatic
How is that a mislynch set up? Do you know she is town?
Anytime you declare "X will die" if "Mafia does X" you're giving more control to the mafia.

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Posted in:
South Park Mafia DP3
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@Lunatic
You guys realize that drafter literally made that post about always lynching inactives on christmas day? He was town in that game. That wasn't very long ago at all. less than two weeks. And he is already pretty much arguing the exact opposite of that post now, that inactivity is a weak thing to push for. What happened to the new policy of lynch all inactives?
I found the link:
This is a common refrain. An active town will eat itself in the presence of inactive scum. Inactives should always be pressured. The fault lies in Supas complete and utter overreaction as well as the veterans (myself included) that allowed ourselves to get distracted by it. I remember thinking Supa was town, but ultimately just got fed up with his behavior and actually forgot about my town read.
Lynch all inactives.
I'm not posting this as evidence drafter is scum, I'm just posting this to make him mad.
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