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Out of drafter, speed, and water, water is my weakest town read, and all my reads on him are from DP1.
I don't have a read on Pie, but hes role confirmed, copped inno, and we know he can't be godfather and there's probably no mafia lawyer.
I went back and re-read water's reaction to being accused. He's way too passive about sussing Single back. I was think the whole day it could have been a bus.
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Yeah I'm role confirmed. Why would I claim EVEN night comedian, just happen to be the ONLY even night power role, and Single just HAPPENS to be EVEN night double RB?
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With oro dying that fucks up my scum team.
There's gotta be 1 more scum in
2. Drafterman
3. WaterPhoenix
4. SpeedRace
6. iLikePie5
But I clear drafter, water, and speed on town behaviour reads, and Pie is role confirmed.
Unless it really is a 2 mafia scum team and a TP?
If the TP is a survivor then we're good, we joint win. Might be since there haven't been any SK kills.
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lynch luna today, no-lynch tomorrow, I can get 1 more set of results.
Mafia can't kill me because im their best mislynch.
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In this project, we use deep learning to detect deception through online conversations in the interaction-based party game Mafia. We present various neural network frameworks (LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, CNN) to generate predictions of deceptive text. The results of this paper suggest the capability of neural network architectures to effectively detect deception in the Mafia setting, and offer qualitative analysis in agreement with current deception research findings.
We have trained tensorflow frameworks based on unidirectional LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, as well as CNN, that successfully perform deception detection on online Mafia game interactions using the Mafiascum dataset [3]. All three models performed above baseline accuracy (81.6%), with 88.8% (unidirectional LSTM), 94.7% (bidirectional LSTM), and 94.9% (CNN). This suggests that deeplearning techniques may be able to effectively identify linguistic cues that signal deception.
Emphasis mine
This is a relatively recent paper (March 18, 2019). I wonder how this compares against good players here.
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@Speedrace
Cause then the players sussing me won't be distracted and waste a lynch on me.
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@Speedrace
Actually it does cause if we lynch Single and he turns out to be town, then canonically we all get NK'd.Us lynching Singularity doesn't change your chances of being NKd lol
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@Lunatic
No he claimed he was told he died because the mod forgot he was BP
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@Speedrace
But there's a chance it COULD be useful info.Plus, what if Supa just decides to put their claim into your roles. Boom, useless info
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@Speedrace
But killing me is good cause some people here are still sussing me, so that's 1 less mislynch target
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@Lunatic
He can't claim RB he was never dreamer in the first place
Why would you even say he was RB'd unless you RB'd him, he's literally BP.
Also my role is not a visit so traditionally it shouldn't even be RBable.
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@drafterman
Ok but I'm a player in the game and it'll inform me going forward.
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Actually if drafter is lynchproof then he can't possibly be scum, cause if hes lynchproof scum then scum have already won.
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Oh wait no I get it. Can we lynch drafter today and prove he's lynchproof? It's the same effect as no-lynching at MyLo, and it gets him semi-confirmed since lynchproof is usually town sided.
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@drafterman
But you can't confirm they're lying. You'll just make it you can them which is the position we're in right now.
What?
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@drafterman
To mention again, the other option is if I die, you get a clear path to lynch, instead of having to choose between me or oro in the end.
Also if I die, I get to blame you for losing the game.
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@drafterman
VTNL, I'll comedian either single or lunatic. Worst case is I do not confirm or exonerate them. Best case is I confirm they're lying about their role and a scum role is included in my results. The potential for peace of mind is there.
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@drafterman
If I die, you would have a straight path to lynch single, lunatic, and oro.
If I live, I get results.
VTNL is a win-win situation.
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VTNL
It's MyLo. I get a set of results tomorrow. The best part though is that mafia can't kill me, because I'm their best mislynch target.
Also I'm telling you this scum, I'm not lynching drafter no matter what.
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@drafterman
drafter, if you conclude that Single is scum, then you must also conclude that I am also scum, if we go by my logic.
Your perspective from my perspective:
1. Lunatic -
2. Drafterman - TOWN (self)
3. WaterPhoenix - TOWN (by interaction with Single)
4. SpeedRace - TOWN (by interaction with Single)
5. Bullish -
6. iLikePie5 - TOWN (role mod confirmed)
7. Oromagi -
8. Singularity - SCUM
Leaving 2 scum out of 3 in Lunatic, me, and oro.
I semi-confirmed oro, which means if I'm town, then oro is town. But that's impossible, since again that would mean there's only 2 scum, Sinlge and Lunatic. Therefore the only viable option is that I am also scum, and made a mistake "confirming" oro for town cred.
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I've lost some town games but I've never been as unsure as I am in this one.
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The only scum game I could find Water in he claimed mafia 4 posts in then lynched himself.
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Aslo why did virt just happen to flip this DP? Doesn't that make the janitor kind of useless?
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@drafterman
I've been running down some scum teams.
1. Lunatic -
2. Drafterman - TOWN (by behaviour)
3. WaterPhoenix -
4. SpeedRace -
5. Bullish - TOWN
6. iLikePie5 - TOWN (role mod confirmed)
7. Oromagi - TOWN (I confirmed kind of)
8. Singularity -
Speed and Single's interaction suggests there is at most 1 scum between them.
Single and Water's interactions suggest there is at most 1 scum between them.
If single is scum, then neither Speed or Water are. Which only leaves Lunatic. Which means there are only 2 scum out of 12, which is very imba (unless there is TP).
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But I also can't imagine why mafia would fake claim doc + watch DP1, with what, only 3 claims before hand? If I was full doc or full watch I'd CC that immediately. Also, a watcher claim could be countered with results any time you claim to use it. That's super ballsy for mafia.
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@Speedrace
It's possible mafia only had 1x RB in a JOAT.If you're going to NL, please explain why Singularity wouldn't have been RBd
Then again I can't imagine why mafia wouldn't have just RB'd Single and killed grey, or RB'd grey and killed single.
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Aslo as far as I can imply about my role, I can't be roleblocked.
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@Speedrace
once again, I named Oro, which is NOT a visit, and got that his role could be one of Vanilla, Vig, or Doctor.
I asked but got not definitive answer to these potential variations in the role:
1. Is vanilla townie and goon mafia distinguished?
2. Are all 3 roles necessarily in the game?
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@Singularity
I tend to not be one who over thinks things, but I'm gonna do that here.
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If only press would have been fucking active so he could use that suicide bomber role and we wouldn't be at mylo.
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Ongoing
SupaDudz: South Park - DP3
Sign-ups
drafterman (DART Survivor Season 1)
In the Hopper
Speedrace (Captain America: Civil War)
TUF- Recycled Roles mafia
ILikePie5 - Pick 1: Narcos, Riverdale, Bakugan Battle Brawlers
warren- open setup, likely themeless
Zaradi - Borderlands
Virtuoso
Bullish (Memes of the 2010's)
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@Speedrace
I have role justification, but I can see in past Supa games, some roles have justification and some don't.
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Today I'd be down for a lynch on Lunatic or PressF. My secondary pool is SpeedRace and Oromagi.
If there are 3 scum within these 4, then we've won, because we get 1 mislynch.
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@Lunatic
I guess it could be a gambit where he forfeited the kill, but then I don't even know why he would have claimed dreamer.
Actually would make a lot of sense. If scum attempted to kill Grey and failed, a BP claim is the perfect gambit especially with the "I knew I was the NK target because of mod error".
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@Lunatic
Don't call what I did nothing that's just insulting. I spent 5 hours sunday reading the entirety of the FT Nightless game on DDO, and came to the conclusion based on meta that drafter is town.We all know nothing is for sure. One day you can scum read someone, the next you may town them. Kinda like how you did that with drafter, based on almost nothing after gunning for him hard dp1 XD
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@Vader
I do love how we're breaking trends and posting more in later DPs.
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@Lunatic
Anytime you declare "X will die" if "Mafia does X" you're giving more control to the mafia.How is that a mislynch set up? Do you know she is town?
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@Lunatic
I found the link:You guys realize that drafter literally made that post about always lynching inactives on christmas day? He was town in that game. That wasn't very long ago at all. less than two weeks. And he is already pretty much arguing the exact opposite of that post now, that inactivity is a weak thing to push for. What happened to the new policy of lynch all inactives?
This is a common refrain. An active town will eat itself in the presence of inactive scum. Inactives should always be pressured. The fault lies in Supas complete and utter overreaction as well as the veterans (myself included) that allowed ourselves to get distracted by it. I remember thinking Supa was town, but ultimately just got fed up with his behavior and actually forgot about my town read.Lynch all inactives.
I'm not posting this as evidence drafter is scum, I'm just posting this to make him mad.
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