Total posts: 17,895
Posted in:
City of Chicago v McDonald incorporated the second amendment to the states. A black man sued the city of Chicago because they didn’t allow him to own a gun and his house was broken into repeatedly. Most people don’t know this story
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
IRS audits every American and every company in the US. Zero audits for Ukrainians tho
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
Honestly, I thought the discussion was about to turn full speed in the direction of lizards when I read that.
He lied about his experience working for big banks and being gay? That’s incredibly based
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@PREZ-HILTON
Did they just not want to win bad enough or did he run uncontested or something.
He ran in a Biden+8 district 😂😂
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Sidewalker
Trump is no American.
He is an American citizen. So yes, he is an American
Created:
-->
@AustinL0926
There’s nothing stopping him from doing it right now if he wants. He doesn’t even need mod approval tbh. I seriously doubt Airmax and Lunatic asked the mods when they did their
Created:
-->
@AustinL0926
Alright, that sounds reasonable. You'll probably have my vote, unless a particularly good candidate shows up.
Why does he have to be President to do that?
Created:
Blocking someone has nothing to do with freedom of speech at all. After all, you are here freely speaking.
Actions speak louder than works
Created:
Blocking someone has nothing to do with freedom of speech at all. After all, you are here freely speaking.
Sure it does. Especially considering you blocked me for “harassment” and think I should be banned for it lol. If you were President and the mods banned me, you would do nothing about it
Created:
-->
@Best.Korea
Yes, and that will help his campaign a lot.
Lmaoooo
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
Trump is corrupt. Zelensky is not corrupt. And you’re still an idiot
Lmaoooo
Created:
-->
@AustinL0926
The president's power is limited to giving recommendations, as well as vetoing permabans (and the vetoes can be overridden by simple majority vote).
This is the biggest thing on this site with respect to free speech. RM has a history of blocking people he disagrees with and calls it harassment when we call out his idiocy.
He still has be blocked right now. No mod will ever vote for RM. I can promise you that. They’re not going to publically say it, but everyone here knows they dislike RM
Created:
Okay, so ask me my positions on things then. What have I failed to answer?
I know your position. You can posture all you want, but everyone knows you’re volatile and will change your mind in seconds
Created:
-->
@Athias
No use arguing with him. He’s going to lose as long as we don’t split votes.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
You love Trump, because you’re an idiot.
At least I love an American. You’re in love with a Corrupt Ukrainians
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
Do you remember Historybuff?
I do, pretty cool guy
Created:
-->
@Intelligence_06
Go for it yourself if you think you are better.
If no one else throws their hat into the ring, I will.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
Trump is way more corrupt than any Ukrainians and you love Trump. So you are clueless
Love the dodging
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
I’m guessing you pay very little in Federal income tax. I can’t imagine you earn much.
I’d prefer my tax payer money be used for your benefit over that Zelensky and the corrupt Ukrainians
Created:
Posted in:
Yup, more of our tax payer money down the drain
Created:
Literally anyone would be a better President than RM. His “realization” of free speech is a scam and a lie.
Created:
-->
@Double_R
Everything with you is deflection.The fact that democratic politicians do not fight as hard as they should to fix the problems within our tax code does not validate your position against the changes progressives are calling for.
Everyone knows the tax laws will always benefit the rich because they fund politicians. The difference is that the GOP did something to benefit the middle class too with tax cuts, while Dems just sit there arguing their pronouns
Created:
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
How taxes work? Right now they work to move money from the middle to the poor and the wealthy.You would think the American people prefer to move money from the wealthy to the poor but that’s not what we do. Republicans want to move it from the middle to the ends. That’s why I have a 18% effective federal income tax rate, Romney has a 13% rate and Trump cheats and pays nothing or next to nothing.
You had a trifecta in Congress for 2 years. Why didn’t you change. Trump acknowledged this against Hillary in 2016 if you remember. Wealthy pay Democrats too lol
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
Blue no matter who makes sense. They aren’t critical thinkers lol
Created:
Imagine thinking that taking advantage of existing tax law to save money is wrong
Created:
People clearly don’t understand how taxes work lmaoo
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
He blocked you because he was tired of getting owned by a 15 year old.
Fax
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
If we burn, you burn with us
Created:
-->
@YouFound_Lxam
He doesn’t realize that our generations are the future lol. He should be happy cause our generations were the ones that killed the red wave. But his “critical thinking skills” make him criticize his own team
Created:
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
You think that because you have the brain and critical thinking skills of a 15 yo virgin. You two also have the same education level.
Keep wearing that mask on the plane, don’t catch COVID
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
@YouFound_Lxam
- Well, that explains it. You aren't old enough to understand that a politician calling for the end of fossil fuel consumption is not the same thing as President actually enforcing prohibitions on fossil fuel consumption. Big difference, kid.
Congrats Lxam, you just beat Oromagi lol. 15 year old defeats 53 year old who has no life. Gg
Created:
-->
@YouFound_Lxam
Oro literally has no life besides posting long pages full of conspiracy theories. Anyone with a brain can understand that the intelligence communities, who were openly anti-Trump in some cases, colluded with Twitter to censor. You can argue all day whether this was coercive or not, but it neglects the fact that without government involvement, the story may not have been censored.
This colluded buried the now verified Hunter Biden laptop, which includes the son of a Presidential candidate doing drugs, having sex, and making business deals with foreign governments with a little bit left aside for the “Big Guy.” Gimme a break
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
Crazy is that people think this is even close to bad. They’re saying 1.6 million dollars in evaded taxes over the span of years.
Even the IRS didn’t find anything, even though people like Trump are audited every year.
In the realm of billions of dollars that could be a book keeping error, but we definitely owned him. 1.6 million more dollars to Ukraine
Created:
Posted in:
Only 1.6 million dollars. Y’all sure got him this time
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
Do you support the government shooting into a crowd of people with the intent to kill?
Only Rosie O’Donnell
Created:
-->
@Double_R
Supply and demand
Which specifically?
Talking about the green new deal has an impact on future profits? What?
Yes, it does, especially when there’s a Democratic trifecta federally.
Do you even know what the green new deal is?Once again, no one is claiming his policies don’t have *an* impact. We’re talking about what that impact has been vs the impact of other factors, like the war in Russia or the global supply chain being disrupted due to COVID.
War in Russia is still happening lol. Supply chain is still bad lol. Both affect oil prices too. Russia wouldn’t have invaded under Trump. And supply chain would be the same or better than it was now under Trump. So yes, Biden did cause them in an indirect fashion, as well as a direct fashion to his opposing permits, supporting the GND, etc.
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
Since all the usual sheep can't answer, I will ask you.Do you think Biden made a mistake with the policy reversal?
He was stuck between a cliff and a lion. I can’t tell which was worse lol
Created:
-->
@Double_R
I’m not the one claiming Biden’s policies have made any significant impact
So what brought prices down lol.
We’re not talking about whether his policies theoretically made some impact in some way. Your claim Is that his policies are largely responsible for the prices we see today, which means that his actions or inactions are primarily driving the market. Oil is a huge global industry, yet all you can point to are insignificant changes that hardly make any difference.
Insignificant changes?? Talking about the Green New Deal, actively promoting EVs, etc all has an impact on future profits. You don’t understand how the futures market works, which I don’t blame you for cause you’re not in Finance.
The oil market is dominate by OPEC, Russia, and the US. Biden already doesn’t want future permits in the US. He went to OPEC in the form of the Saudis and apologized for the Kashoggi thing. Then he went to the Venezuelan socialist dictator to beg for oil.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@cristo71
I don’t get what you mean here. Aren’t we talking about reality here?
I’m talking in the sense that the assumption that investors are rational is violated in the real world because people are dumb. In an ideal setting, arbitrage would not be possible.
We know that these exist, but the opportunities are limited and short in timing. Momentum theory in the world of EMH is an anomaly.
While luck certainly plays into it, there comes a point where enough time has elapsed (a decade or more) that skill, temperament, instinct, and hard work come into play…
Possibly, but at that point you just know how to read a room, which comes down to luck. Instinct is luck as well. There will be one person that does good for 10 years. Going back to the coin flips, getting 10 heads in a row is still a 1/1000 chance.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@cristo71
When it comes to shorting, I think of this saying: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
I agree with this for the average investor. Large hedge funds and organizations have the capital to wait it out and post margin, but the average person doesn’t.
I would definitely say that markets have been getting more efficient in the internet age with such fast access to current information, but I believe that people are emotional and panicky, especially when it comes to money.
I agree. Cognitive biases have a very large impact scientifically on human decision making. It’s why it’s hard to compare the EMH with reality. More often than not though, I would argue the EMH overpowers these biases.
Yes, most money managers aren’t much better than a coin toss at making choices, but I would say that is because investing/trading is hard, not because markets are inherently efficient.
I disagree. Most of the time active management yields less returns than passive management. Obviously there will be some who succeed like Warren Buffet, but I would argue that doesn’t violate the EMH, because reality is an apples to oranges comparison to EMH conditions.
The fact that some of the same people can regularly beat the market debunks EMH, IMO.
Read above. The second factor I would argue is luck. You can get lucky. It’s very hard to replicate your results with your strategy. It may have worked for five years, but it’s essentially like flipping a coin 5 times and getting heads 5 times. The probability is reasonable with luck.
There are probably numerous savvy retail investors who beat the market, too. Retail investors aren’t held down by the same SEC rules and aren’t beholden to the emotional whims of clients they don’t have.
Mutual Funds and ETFs generally rely on the passive management strategy proposed by the EMH.
Is it worth all the extra effort for a small chance of achieving alpha? For the vast majority, no.
I agree. Unless you’re a hedge fund manager on Wall Street, it’s not worth it to actively manage. For everyone on this site I would recommend passively managed ETFs and Mutual Funds, while maxing out your Roth IRA every year
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@sadolite
So EMH is just a speculative tool for predicting stock market trends? IE looking into the future to see what commodities and services may me in short supply or vice versa and investing on those speculations? Or is it corporate purchasing of raw goods based on price speculation in the future?
It’s a theory. EMH implies that speculation is useless because those future supply shortages are factored into the current price.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@cristo71
Savvy market watchers can often calculate that assets are overinflated, and corrections confirm their suspicions. Corrections suggest inefficiency to me. I guess I just don’t buy EMH…
The problem is that these calculations are already priced into the stock price. You know there was a correction after the dust has settled, not when you’re buying/selling.
Think of it from this perspective. If you thinking something is overinflated, there’s gonna be other people at the same time as you and even before you to have shorted the stock
It’s reasonable to not buy EMH for a multitude of reasons. But it is fact that active management strategies often do worse than passive strategies.
I’m not asking about supply and demand pressures. I’m asking about the stochastic indicators of overbought and oversold equities. They often preceed small dips and pops in an equity’s price, respectively. Perhaps EMH proponents don’t believe in such terms in the first place? Any buying or selling of an equity being done to excess would suggest an inefficiency to me.
Momentum is an anomaly that cannot be explained by the EMH. A key assumption of EMH is that buyers and sellers are rational. Momentum implies irrationality in the sense that you’re buying because everyone else is buying. It works out until it doesn’t.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@sadolite
This all sounds like a long winded description of supply and demand 101. But hey I could be wrong, but with that said my prices go up and down based on demand and available supplies.
There are pretty large implications of EMH. If it’s true, then active stock management is a big based of time and money.
Created:
-->
@Vader
I would also say the ability to write well so as to have persuasive power in discussions between president and people he/she/they defend/s and the other mods in the behind-the-scenes stuff matters.
Lmfaooo
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@cristo71
I’ve heard of EMH, but I’m no expert! I understand that it is taught in college economics and is the dominant explanation for market prices. So, for those more familiar, I have a few questions:
Yes, if you’re a believer in the EMH, active management has no effect on returns because information is already reflected in prices.
There are in reality 3 versions of EMH: Weak form efficiency, semi-strong efficiency, and strong efficiency.
Weak form efficiency means that current stock prices fully incorporate information from past prices.
Semi-strong form efficiency means that current market prices fully incorporate all publicly available information. In a market that is semi-strong form efficient investors cannot trade based on publicly available information and expect profits in excess of an equilibrium expected return
Strong form efficiency means all information in a market, whether public or private, is accounted for in a stock's price. This is technically illegal because of insider trading laws
1. How does EMH account for “corrections”? Doesn’t a correction mean things were overpriced?
A correction means that new information suggests that the price is overinflated. Information leads to price changes. Maybe new research came from academia, maybe the CEO said something, etc.
2. How does EMH account for equities which are overbought or oversold? When a trend is overdone, doesn’t that imply an inefficiency in pricing?
Buying and selling is how stock prices change. If you are buying, then overall, you have information that suggests the price is going to go even higher. Opposite for selling. Essentially, any new information becomes priced into the stock price in seconds
Created:
-->
@Double_R
Yes, I understand you believe that, even though you cannot quantify the impacts of a single policy you are claiming is responsible.But that was all besides the point which I made clear and you ignored. Here, I’ll give it another try…
You realize the opposite holds true right? How can you quantify how Biden brought prices down?
I know how the futures market operates. It’s basic financial market movement tbh. Any and all information is reflected in the market if you’re a believer in the EMH.
Created:
-->
@Double_R
I’m not accusing you of making that argument. We’ve talked about this a dozen times already, I know what you have to say. I’m just trying to get you to acknowledge, as you just did, that just because Biden is president does not mean he is responsible for high gas prices.
His policies were responsible for the high gas prices because he severely constricted oil supply. He’s getting that same oil supply from the Saudis and Venezuelans
Created:
-->
@Double_R
If the president is responsible for the rise in gas prices - because he’s the president - then he’s also responsible for the reduction in gas prices.You don’t get to have it both ways, blame him with no explanation necessary when prices go up but when they go down dismiss it with specifics.
I’m not having it both ways if you actually read what I said lol.
Gas prices were going up because of a supply shortage caused by Biden’s policies against oil, less permits, etc.
Gas prices are going down because he got the supply from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela
Created: