Total posts: 17,895
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@thett3
Dark Horse race is Washington Senate. I think it’s a Democratic Hold but a very close victory by Patty Murray. Somewhere around 3% would be my guess
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@SirAnonymous
How are you fine with that? If your wincon is survival, that would make you lose
I hate playing TP. I would like to help town, but if y’all sus me then lynch me. That helps town as well with POE
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@SirAnonymous
Conspiracy theory: Pie and Supa are the mafia team. They are waiting for the real TP to CC them and are hoping to escape in the resulting chaos.
I am perfectly fine lynching Supa and then me. If my conversion theory is correct, Supa is a bigger threat than I thought because he can force MYLO on DP2
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@SirAnonymous
So if your wincon is survival, how is your role different from the standard TP survivor?
I cannot hammer people out of principle. If I attempt to do so, I get modkilled. My role is like a combo of Survivor and Pacifist. Coincidentally Supa’s is a combination of Survivor and JOAT.
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Okay so let me think about this. Let’s assume for a second that it is 6 town, 2 mafia, 1 TP.
If Supa is mafia CCing me then he knows that when I flip TP, he will be on the chopping block as scum. Assuming a successful NK, it would be 5-2. Let’s assume there’s a vote stealer. This would mean that every townie would have to vote correctly to lynch. There is however a work around to this. Assuming the vote steal is 1x, then a VTNL would suffice and DP it would be 4-2 still. This option seems unlikely.
Another option is that Supa is buying time with some sort of converter role like I had last DP, in which case it is 7-1-1 right now. With a lynch and no NK (cause he would be converting that night), it would be 5-2-1 the next DP, which is theoretically MYLO since DP3 will be 3-2-1 and town would have to rely on me as the 4th vote. If Supa could kill and recruit, it’s even worse because it will be 4-2-1. This option seems more likely than the previous one
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@PREZ-HILTON
You also have to ask the question: why would I claim TP as mafia knowing there was a TP in the game.
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@SirAnonymous
First a question for the mod. Do TPs count as town in determining whether the game has ended, or do they not count at all? For example, if there were 2 townies, 2 TPs, and 2 mafia, would it count as 4-2 or 2-2?
She answered that when she answered the wincon question I think. Mafia have to be a majority of the township to win is what I got from that answer
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@PREZ-HILTON
It specifically says patients though. Why would Batman be locked in Arkham asylum?There might be multiple TP but Batman makes no senseVTL Pie
That’s a great point. I have no rebuttal against it because that’s the character That2 gave me.
It’s conceivable 2 TPs are possible. I’m trying to think of an incentive for Supa CCing me as TP JOAT. The only thing I can think of is that he has some sort of vote steal, but that makes no sense this early unless he’s trying to gain “towncred.”
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@whiteflame
Yeah... I don't buy that there are two third parties unless something weird is going on with scum (could just be one scum and two third parties, I guess?). It's interesting that each of you has what are generally agreed to be the most popular characters in this mix (Batman and the Joker). I'd like to see how Pie responds to this.
I reread the OP and it says “at least one TP exists.” Theoretically that means that 2 could exist, but then is there just one mafia member?
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@Barney
@SirAnonymous
Survival. I confirmed with That2 that I can joint win with either side.
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With 9 players it’s probably 6-2-1 right now.
With one mislynch and NK it’s 4-2-1
With two mislynches and NKs it’s 2-2-1. Mafia can still theoretically be voted out in this scenario, so I’d assume scum wincon is that they have to be a majority of the township
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Claims List
1.Wylted
2.whiteflame
3.ILikePie5 - Bruce Wayne/Batman - Pacifist
4.Barney
5.SirAnonymous
6.SupaDudz
7.Earth
8.Coreyinthehouse
9.crystalynx
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Anime Waifus Mafia (SupaDudz)
This was Corey’s and Crystal’s only game. They were replaced DP2.
Credit to Supa for the archive
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@PREZ-HILTON
3rd party out yourself right now and perhaps town can spare you
Ya, I hate playing as Third Party
I’m Bruce Wayne/Batman and I’m the Third Party Pacifist. I cannot attempt to hammer. Any attempt to do so will result in a mod-kill.
My justification is that Batman’s one rule is not killing anyone, rather he wants to save people.
That2 has informed me that I can joint-win with Town, and that’s what I plan on doing.
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Both Crystal and Corey have played one game. They were active for one DP and then never again. I forget which game it was
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@thett3
I think Oz narrowly holds PA for Republicans,
After that atrocious debate performance by Fetterman, I think Oz wins by 3+. Oz also does better in Allegheny and Philly suburbs because he’s positioned himself as a moderate like Toomey.
I think republicans flop Nevada
Nevada is a definite GOP flop. I did a class project on this race and if Hispanics defect by a 5% margin to Laxalt compared to 2020 Trump v Biden, Laxalt eeks it out. Combine that with independent leads for Laxalt, lower African American turnout, and a greater percentage of white turnout, Laxalt wins by 2+.
and I think Masters crawls across the finish line in Arizona.
I agree. I think it’ll be within 1 point, but with the Libertarian now gone, it’s gonna get a lot closer. Kelly is also spending like 7-8 times more than Masters which is usually a warning sign for incumbents. Kelly also is winning by far less in the polls compared to 2020 cycle against Sinema.
The first and last race will be much closer than they should be due to candidate quality. I think Georgia goes to a runoff that Walker loses and I could be wrong
Surprisingly, I think Walker wins without a runoff. There are a couple of reasons. African American turnout has been trending down as a percentage of early vote. Kemp at the top of the ticket will have coattails for Walker. Currently there are a lot of undecideds in the race that will heavily break for Walker given in the national environment.
but I don’t think New Hampshire is any closer than five points in the end. 52-48R
I think it’ll be within 1 point. Hassan is unpopular and Schumer actually spent money here to boost Bolduc in the primaries. Latest poll has Bolduc up by 1 point. Especially with undecideds and Sununu at the top, I think it’ll be a nail biter like 2016.
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@thett3
@SirAnonymous
@Double_R
Which senate seats do y’all have flipping vs staying the same
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@Sidewalker
You've got Sean Parnell winning in Pensylvania, and then what, Pat Toomey stays in office and Pensylvania get's a third Senate seat, is that how they pick up one?
I made a mistake on the pickup, which I will happily admit. At that point in time it looked like Parnell would be the nominee as well. This thread is like a year old lol.
Is this a new rule or something, if somebody who isn't actually running wins the election the encumbant stays in office and you get another Senate Seat?That's very interesting, don't tell me, let me guess, you graduated fromTrump University with a major in Politics, right?
Lol I would love to hear your predictions and your reasoning behind them
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@thett3
House goes to GOP: 243 - 192
Senate:
AK - Murkowski (R) vs Tshibaka (R) —> GOP Hold
AL - Britt (R) vs Boyd (D) —> GOP Hold
AR - Boozman (R) vs James (D) —> GOP Hold
AZ - Masters (R) vs Kelly (D) —> GOP Pickup*
CA - Padilla (D) vs Meuser (R) —> Dem Hold
CO - Bennett (D) vs O’Dea (R) —> Dem Hold
CT - Blumenthal (D) vs Leavy (R) —> Dem Hold
FL - Rubio (R) vs Demings (D) —> GOP Hold
GA - Walker (R) vs Warnock (D) —> GOP Pickup
HI - Schatz (D) vs McDermott (R) —> Dem Hold
IA - Grassley (R) vs Franken (D) —> GOP Hold
ID - Crapo (R) vs Roth (D) —> GOP Hold
IL - Duckworth (D) vs Salvi (R) —> Dem Hold
IN - Young (R) vs McDermott (D) —> GOP Hold
KS - Moran (R) vs Holland (D) —> GOP Hold
KY - Paul (R) vs Booker (D) —> GOP Hold
LA - Kennedy (R) vs Chambers (D) —> GOP Hold
MD - Van Hollen (D) vs Chaffee (R) —> Dem Hold
MO - Schmitt (R) vs Valentin (D) —> GOP Hold
NC - Budd (R) vs Beasley (D) —> GOP Hold
ND - Hoeven (R) vs Christiansen (D) —> GOP Hold
NH - Bolduc (R) vs Hassan (D) —> GOP Pickup
NV - Laxalt (R) vs Cortez Masto (D) —> GOP Pickup
NY - Schumer (D) vs Pinion (R) —> Dem Hold
OH - Vance (R) vs Ryan (D) —> GOP Hold
OK - Lankford (R) vs M. Horn (D) —> GOP Hold
OK(S) - Mullin (R) vs K. Horn (D) —> GOP Hold
OR - Wyden (D) vs Perkins (D) —> Dem Hold
PA - Oz (R) vs Fetterman (D) —> GOP Hold
SC - Scott (R) vs Matthews (D) —> GOP Hold
SD - Thune (R) vs Bengs (D) —> GOP Hold
UT - Lee (R) vs McAdams (I) —> GOP Hold
VT - Welch (D) vs Malloy (D) —> Dem Hold
WA - Murray (D) vs Smiley (R) —> Dem Hold
WI - Johnson (R) vs Barnes (D) —> GOP Hold
Ask me question
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RM was objectively anti-town that game. Period.
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Pie has gone away from this feeling good that he outplayed the Town, not realising a major issue in how easily I read him on top of how invulnerable I was to being built a bandwagon on DP1
This is just straight up wrong. You scumread me because I was “aggressive.” I and everyone else proved to you that I’m aggressive regardless of my affiliation. You were operating from an ill-informed perspective, and even after everyone told you that you were wrong, you still pushed me.
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@PREZ-HILTON
While true, it is towns responsibility to do whatever the fuck I tell them to.
😂😂 <3
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@PREZ-HILTON
I would say in order to be a good town player you should actually just listen to people who are correct Instead of them needing to prove how persuasive they can be.
Being correct means nothing if you can’t get majority votes on your read.
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@Mharman
Now, to be fair, Pie had no business egging him on in that thread. I'm okay with banter, but Pie was clearly trying to bait RM into exploding whilst knowing full well that RM would do so.
I was playing to my meta and strategy. If RM exploded, it was on him. I’ve done this multiple times with Lunatic, and it’s turned out fine. I’m not the problem here, RM his.
I will stand my position that objectively, RM’s idea was stupid, and him continuing to pursue it even after the vote we had was even more dumb. I called him out on it and everyone else did as well. Yet he still continued pushing it because of his ego.
All he did was anger himself and everyone else in the process. You can call it a mafia strategy all you want; I don't care. If your strategy as a mafioso is to push everyone to the point where they've had it, then you need to find a new one. As such, Pie has received a warning for my future games.
Again, it is literally my meta to do that. If I don’t do that, I go against my meta and out myself as scum. People choose to be offended. I will live my this previous statement till I die. It’s RMs problem that he has to deal with “abuse” even after multiple people have told him to stop. He still continues to do, and I have to respond to him to play to my meta. I firmly believe I did nothing wrong.
I will also point out that I tried to reason with RM. I pointed out that we were distracting, and we should focus on scum hunting, yet he continued to push for me even more.
Hell, I even claimed knowing full well my claim and my role behind it were ass, but he just doubled down on. I tried. You cannot say the same for RM.
I don't like doing this because it's not fun for me, but I am doing this because I want my games to be fun for everyone playing in them. Say what you will, but I think we can all agree that the next game of mine will be more fun without two players flaming each other constantly.
If RM played normally and listened to people, we wouldn’t have this issue. You’re blaming me for RMs ego and idiocy, which frankly is unfair. If you’re going to shovel lies at my behavior and play (and let’s be clear, they were lies), I have the right to call him out on it both in terms of the game and personally. Everyone game him the opportunity to provide evidence for his claims. He provided none after multiple requests.
I hope this thread doesn't constitute being a call-out thread, as my intention was to let people know what I am doing about what happened back there. Mods, if it is, sorry. This needed to be said.
I don’t think it is. RM probably does, him being him.
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@Lunatic
@Discipulus_Didicit
@badger
Playyyy my brothas
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I see, I see.Wrong.A good scum player need only do thatA good Town player's skillset are in the reads, I can't convince incompetent players of my reads as they don't grasp any nuance. It was actually best to lynch you not only for reads but because of the theme. You were matching practically 0 themes.
You’re an idiot if you don’t think town need to be able to effectively persuade. Your reads mean nothing if you can’t convince town to follow them, which no one did. I wonder why.
I bet if someone else was right and I didn't get persuaded by them, you'd blame me and insult me for that too.
No, I wouldn’t. You weren’t even trying to persuade people. We all asked you for evidence. You provided none. You made a claim, everyone called you out on it, and still you tunneled me.
All you know is how to abuse and berate people, you can't just talk rationally and consider that they were shit instead of me.
You singlehandedly distracted town from doing anything. If you had kept your mouth shut, stopped aggressively tunneling me, and effectively persuaded people, you could have likely lynched me. But no, you decided to go on a temper tantrum, provide zero evidence, and then rage quit like a loser.
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LlVP RM mg ass. XDPie slipped twice on DP2 btw due to how he outed and what he did mot think about or do
My claim was iffy for sure, but I just needed to make it there.
2 protective town PRs on top of vallinaiser and cop??
It wasn’t a protective role though. Someone would still die.
The whole thing was ridiculous and I am happy I replaced out.
You rage quit cause you can’t stand it when you don’t get your way. Talk about ego and narcissism
Supa and earth were terrible.Mafia on this website is a joke.
Then don’t play.
Also when Pie said he used his power NP1 and was not limited on top of a doc, I knew he was scum as hell.
What do you mean limited lmao. A bodyguard that can kill scum is basically like a vigilante
He didn't fit any theme at all unless it was the antisemite scum theme and the deep state conspiracy is also antisemitic usually. GP was our only investigator.
You’re assuming everyone else was telling the truth. They were in this case, but it’s not always right.
It all added up it had to be Pie and I also suspected conversion possible but didn't say it.
Cause you were scared. That2 actually straight up said it, and I was impressed.
That was why I was hellbent on Pie.
Good for you. You still couldn’t get me lynched because you’re horrible at coalition building. And when you don’t get your way, you rage quit.
Pie only seemed skilled because nobody else cam clearly read his thinking patterns.
The way I played was to my meta DP1. The fact that you don’t understand and refuse to believe everyone else when they agree with me, just shows your ego.
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@Vader
At the end of the day, town had lost the minute RM had a fit of rage. Town lost focus and only focused on the manner in which he carried himself, meaning that Pie would be townread no matter what. Props to That2 for trying to get the lynch, but Pie had this wrapped DP1 when he put the hammer on me, which made me think he was scum, but when you are lynched there is nothing you can do. It was kinda of suspicious that he voted me without giving a true gage of my activity and that made me think he was scum. But Pie had that down the minute RM started to tunnel him
Ya I was waiting for Earth to hammer, but he wasn’t so I was like screw it
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Hahahaha, so your tantrum and crybaby attitude weren't the issue? Me being angry at a toxic piece of crap abusing the fact mods neglect this subforum and me being annoyed that nobody was being an effective town-player except me was the reason we lost?Fuck off, that is nonsense.
You’re a shit town player.
You need to be able to persuade people, which you’re abhorrent at.
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@PREZ-HILTON
His gut was right but his reasoning was abhorrent
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RM is so bad at persuasion that I got this in the bag.
Good on That2 for using receipts
Good on That2 for using receipts
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@Mharman
Progressives don’t believe in the Constitution or the Supreme Court
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@Greyparrot
@Barney
@whiteflame
I am going to be 100% honest and say that if you don't buy into my theory that That2 is scum even just a little after saying "save me" when I am the only person voting her, then I will not respond to your posts at all. It will only waste time.
Okay this is so defeatist. Never seen Earth like this either.
They both have to be scum. There’s no world where they aren’t. The behaviors just don’t add up
VTL Earth
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@Greyparrot
it's possible earth and that2 are hard bussing each other.
I agree.
Who do you want to lynch first? WF is sold on Earth more than That2, I’m vice versa, though I think both are scum.
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@That2User
What did my vanilla claim P0E PRs? All we had was Vanillaizer and my vanilla claim, 5/7 unclaimed barely P0Es anything- I didn't reveal any PRs, PRs revealed themselves, I even said to WF don't claim, how is this on me? How is me claiming when I did very scummy? I was confirming RM's belief in vanilla's, I believed going with RM's ask in claiming vanilla would help town so I did, why you going against me when I did what I believed was good to do?
Again, it does POE PRs regardless of how many people are unclaimed. That’s the definition of POE. You participating in the claiming indirectly led to WF claiming. You gave in to RMs plan even though you voted against it.
You confirming RMs plan goes against your vote for my plan. And this is the definition of buddying. What you believe is good to do for yourself as scum. You wanted RM to think you were town. Giving information to scum inherently benefits them more than it benefits us.
I claimed with thought, concluding it was a good move going in with RM's plan, tho I was close to holding back, why do you think I didn't give it any thought?
If you gave it thought, you wouldn’t have reneged on the plan you agreed to earlier. But what I think happened is you thought that RMs claim implied it was safe to claim vanilla as you mentioned. Especially with your fake claim it was a no brainer to just claim to gain RMs trust.
I switched to you because I believed in RM's plan, I didn't buddy RM, I genuinely thought he was onto something.
That’s the definition of buddying lol.
DP1, it's likely that you mafia w/ Earth, RM was even right about Supa being innocent.
He was calling everyone town except me and WF. WF ended up claiming Doctor, which is extremely towny unless Mharman is a bastard mod. If RM can be wrong about WF, why can’t he be wrong about me?
It is true we both voted Supa to get info, I'm specifically calling you out since you said I suddenly switched my vote to Supa when I didn't, I voted to get an info flip out of Supa, you hammering Supa made it impossible to get an info flip out of you like what RM was vying to do last min
What? I wasn’t going to get lynched anyways during DP1. My theory is that when you you realized that I wasn’t going to be lynched, you changed to Supa to get the lynched. You didn’t scumread Supa that DP to my recollection; I could be wrong tho
I was on Supa beforehand too. And I told him I wouldn’t vote for him if his claim was convincing. He didn’t claim, so I voted for him. He was scummy and we needed information.
Yes, it is, I semi thought I did, must've failed to follow up
Which makes sense with your buddying tactic of RM. You don’t want to being negative attention to your buddy.
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@whiteflame
Yeah, I know you both have pointed out this post and I get similar vibes from it. The issue I have here is that both Earth and That2 have come off as pretty scummy in this DP.
I agree. Both are scummy. I think both of them are scum, but I’m just more confident that That2 is scum. If one is scum and one isn’t then I think That2 is more likely to be scum just based on DP1 and now DP2 behavior. That just could be bias though because Earth didn’t do much DP1 so there are less points to analyze.
Earth has been evasive, several times just straight up deciding not to answer pertinent questions about his behavior (note as well that he has been online at least once since my last post and has not responded), and That2 has taken the exact opposite tack of being way too detailed and specific in her responses in a way that we've never seen her do before.
Ya, I also don’t think That2 has ever been scum in any game before (don’t quote me on this). It’s a dramatic shift compared to her play as town in every game.
Seems pretty obvious at this stage that the vote is between the two of them, it's mainly just a matter of which we choose.
I agree, the vote is between the two today.
We've got time to think this over and I want to take it, given that it's MYLO. It's possible that I'm just agonizing over which of two scum is the better lynch today, but I don't want to take any chances.
I agree. I am holding off my vote until there’s a consensus in the off chance scum quickhammer.
I do find it odd that Earth put an early vote down on That2 if they are a scum team, though I am having trouble remembering if he has a history of bussing.
What strikes me as odd is that That2 accused Earth of bussing me over a single phrase that I hammered Supa. So it’s clear bussing is something That2 has on her mind.
She has yet to answer why I wouldn’t bus Earth cause I’m the stronger player. With this it’s clear that That2 has a bus in mind with respect to Earth
I think this solidifies my idea that both are scum. It could be that one person has far better PRs compared to the other.
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@Earth
There? I didn't really care for That2's vanilla claim. I expected as much.
What do you mean you “expected” as much. Why couldn’t she have been a PR?
I claimed because there was some pressure, but didn't see the need for a full claim.
I thought you signed up for my strategy of not claiming character. Obviously you shouldn’t have full claimed.
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@Earth
Honestly we should at least think about how Grey copped a doc claim and not like That2 or me.
I disagree.
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@Greyparrot
@Barney
@whiteflame
Also, did y’all notice that That2 brought all the receipts with her? I have never seen her do that, ever, especially in all the Town roles she’s been in.
This just screams scum
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@whiteflame
So… yeah, no way town is sporting 3 vanillas + a vanillaizer. Not going to happen.
Agreed. At least one, if not both are scum.
Considering Supa was vanilla and Barney is basically town confirmed, that leaves you and That2. I have trouble thinking that it’s both of you, especially as you have now both pointed at each other as your first picks for lynching.
Earth pointed to That2. That2 pointed to me.
I find it very difficult to believe that each of you just chose to bus the other without any existing pressure.
They technically aren’t. It’s a partial bus
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@That2User
You really think I'd target RM/Barney? As scum I'd hit WF, if I buddied RM as you claim why would I hit my own shield? Doesn't make sense
But targeting RM/Barney would’ve ensure that you’d be safe. You could argue that I would never have shot my bestie RM.
You couldn’t hit WF because he basically outted Doctor and could possibly self-protect.
Also, you have yet to answer why Earth would bus me instead of the other way around
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@Greyparrot
@whiteflame
@That2User
In #71 I said, "Pressure, right wing" Me voting to play pressure does not suddenly make me not allowed to not claim vanilla, it only means I want to play a pressure based game and not a theme split one, I did not agree not to claim, your vote does not say someone is not allowed to claim, since I'm vanilla I didn't see any negatives with claiming
If you wanted to play a pressure based claim, why did you claim so early? You had like virtually zero votes on you. You agreed to claim when there was sufficient pressure per my strategy. The fact that you claimed right after RMs Vanillaizer claim and him saying there has to be vanillas is very scummy.
Even if you are vanilla, you shouldn’t have claimed, because it gives scum the opportunity to POE the PRs in the game. More of your inexperience, which just solidifies my claim.
Did you not see the DP? RM asked to have vanillas in #53, I asked, "do you want vanillas to claim?" in #116 , #141 RM said "Yes, all vanillas claim", in #178 I claimed Vanilla, I did not immediately claim vanilla, I asked, waited, got the okay, said yes to being vanilla 2h 18 mins in, ( #141 sent at 5:39 PM, #178 sent at 7:57 PM), how is this not hesitation? You say without question when I did ask a question, "do you want vanillas to claim?"
But again, you claimed with zero pressure. Just because someone asks you to claim, doesn’t mean you should. This also shows how much you were buddying RM as I pointed out earlier. You claimed eagerly with zero thought. More inexperience.
I flipped to Supa out of the blue? I had my intended vote on Supa a long time then suddenly flipped to you, I asked you, "If I vote Supa will you hammer Supa?" You said yes, I voted Supa making it 3/4 then voted you then unvoted and voted you to make it 2/4 Supa, 2/4 Pie, I switched to Supa at the end since it was looking like Supa was the only viable lynch and we needed a info flip, it only suddenly changed to RM vying to have WF vote you Pie, but then you suddenly hammered Supa and it was too late, it was 4/4 Supa and the game needed to end, Supa flipping innocent
You were following the game the entire time. The only reason you switched was because RM asked you to switch to me. More buddying of RM. Why?
I hammered Supa because I am a firm believer in information, as I have maintained in all my games. He also seemed super defeatist towards the end and I always had my doubts. If you recall, I mentioned that Supa’s tunneling seems off. Towards the end he because defeatist too.
It’s rather odd that you’re calling me out when you voted Supa for more information as well.
I admit I needed to follow up, that's my mistake
At least you admit it. But it’s still very weird
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@whiteflame
I agree that scum looks pretty inexperienced based on the actions taken so far. That2 does stand out for the reasons you listed, particularly the choice of claim, since RM straight up said beforehand that his role confirmed the existence of at least one vanilla player (not that it did, but that's what he claimed at the time). The timing looked suspicious to me.
Wow, I can’t believe I missed that. Good catch.
That being said, not sure if I prefer That2 to Earth in this DP, mainly because I'm still not fully confident on you.
Respectable. I would still argue that at least one of them is scum. I think more likely That2 over Earth for the reasons I mentioned.
I'd say that both Earth and That2 are looking more sus than you are (I'll admit, the only thing holding me back from calling them both scum is WIFOM thinking right now), though I'd like some time to look back through the previous DP before I vote. I'd also like to get their responses, particularly Earth's response to me and That2's to you. Depending on how they respond, they may make my decision for me.
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