ILikePie5

Mikal was flipping out because the answers I was giving were screwing him over or something so I started to be more vague

I mean tbf we also used mod info to get to the Austin v Moozer counterclaim and that turned out to be a total red herring.

I worded that specific question in that specific way to throw Lunatic off too, before I posted that read on Mikal. He refused to give a clear answer when I got more specific.

Ok well it was buried in a list of like 13 points. If Mharman had hammered on that point I probably would have agreed with it. I mean, not that I blame him because he was the only one to notice it anyway.

Guess I should have read the whole thing, but I kind of got lazy at that point, skimmed the first few points, and thought it was mostly fluff. And I'd mostly decided to scum read Mharman by that point anyway. In hindsight that one point was the smoking gun.

Wait did Mharman call that out?

Behavior + gramps

Wait when did this happen?

Sure, but the question is what the threshold is for "mechanically fitting." Probably should have looked though more Luna games to figure that out, but I got distracted looking too much at behavior.

I wasn't convinced it was a scum slip. Luna giving the full role name to the rolecop was more believable to me than a town grandpa. But we should have PoEd it down with Mharman's role.

I was more confident on Mharman being scum.

I've also had a role where the character is only connected to one part of it. Like I was a miller soldier, and I was a "pawn" since they advance at the end of the game, but that has nothing to do with being a miller.

He said very blatantly that he had a "plan" to screw over scum if he got nked and then he had an investigative role. Figured the bluff was more likely than having a convenient role for that situation. Even now, I'm not sure Mikal wouldn't do that as town.

Now that I think about it, a lot depended on who got the sensor as well since there was a 75% chance that person wouldn't die at night. Like if I got it or Mharman got it, things could have played out differently. I think that was probably part of the bus plan since banana was very likely to be outed the next day.

I figured he was fake claiming to avoid a night kill.

You know, I was going to cop Banana because I wanted to spite Mikal thinking Banana was scum. I think this taught me that spite is beneficial for town.

Do you remember where Mikal provided a justification and what it was? Still can't find it.

I wasn't scum though?

I did. That was basically the only part I got right. Mistake was not looking too hard at Mikal's justification I think. At the time, Mharman's claim seemed more sus to me than his.

I wonder if I would think that Mikal was the last scum. Probably not lol. Good game y'all.

Is it an issue with probability or just with the accuracy of my reads? Other than recording how much you suspect a person, how do you determine if your reads work better than the rate of chance? Even if I just categorized people as "scummy" or "townie," I don't think I'd do much better than random chance.

Thanks pie, you saw right through me lol

Looking back at percentages, I think my behavioral reads worked at basically the rate of chance. Percentages were more accurate dp2 but biased by Moozer and Austin being basically confirmed. So yeah, I don't think I would have predicted the bus strategy 99 times out of 100.

Wow my first mafia win! I know I got carried, but I am still happy. Good job to everyone, especially good job to mikal. I was actually having fun doing the fake fights with you. Good job to everyone, fun game. Mharman, you almost had it! So close haha.

Yeah, fair play to Pie. I just wish the rest of the town would have listened to him on that point.

Yeah, fair play to Pie. I just wish the rest of the town would have listened to him on that point.

But I wasn't in most people's PoE.

If I'd thought your reads were better than mine, then I would have had different reads? Obviously I thought I was qualified to continue being alive, it's all hindsight for me at this point.

Sure? But Mharman was in my PoE and so was WF. The benefits of potentially avoiding a townie sussing me were outweighed by the risk that WF was scum and then my role was just a waste.

We lynched banana anyway.

Earth was also in PoE, so was Mharman. At the end I had Mikal at 64.5% odds of being town, though I'd basically stopped fidgeting with the percentages except to get the correct average. I don't know what could have happened to reduce Mikal's town odds below 50% in the final day, at least from my POV. I did figure the princess claim might be bogus, but there was a legitimate reason to do it in terms of avoiding a night kill.

Which a lynch also does. I wasn't in PoE, so there was no need to town confirm someone else.

For the most part I agree with you, but if he used his role and it still resulted in a mislynch, town would have been screwed either way, but it also decreases the chances of said mislynch, so imo it would have been a calculated risk to take in dp 2 or 3.