ILikePie5

Just caught up. I really, really don't see why ADOL isn't choosing to say who he targeted. That and because I know I am town, means he is the scum on the results. When I played I got bullied into complying to the way everyone else thinks too, and because I didn't comply I got lynched for it, if for some reason ADOL doesn't get lynched for doing the same thing, I am going to assume it has something to do with gender...

Also I didn't get any results or messages last night to indicate whiteflame visited me, so I don't know what that's about. 

VTL ADOL. You need to out your results. Everyone else has, you aren't a special snowflake.

I am Nikita Khrushchev. Because he negotiated for peace and safety, in some cases at the cost of effectiveness in other areas, I am the Jailkeeper. Each Night, I target someone- they are roleblocked, but protected from lethal actions.

Is my fault, sorry about that.

I targeted Whiteflame Night 1 for two reasons. I thought that if he was Town and User was Scum, he might be a nightkill target, because he was against User but not really "leading the charge," so to speak. The second reason was because if WF was Scum, he might have carried the nightkill, since he was not really on anyone's radar. Either way, a lack of kill would have given me information.

I targeted Vader Night 2 because I townread him and because I suspected his role after he asked if anything happened to WF on Night 1.

Not true. We have 7 alive. If there were 3 scum, this would be LYLO, and that would have been announced:

What will these hypothetical townies do with the claimed information?

Suppose, I give an answer, and then scum claim that they have a power that lets them see who visited who, then they claim that I am lying in order to push a miss lynch.

But in order for that to happen they would need to know which person I claimed so they can deny it.

If on the other hand they announce who they were watching, I would (if I am scum) know to not claim I visited that person.

Or maybe a townie can do the same and confirm I visited someone. What if I visited no one?

It's a stalemate, and there are clearly many more possibilities since there are like a million roles.

So if it's so important to claim roles, let the person who can verify or disprove my information come forward. Then I will consider whether it is worth the risk.

Townies don't always need to lie nor do scum.

In general there is apparently a role called "Cop", don't know if you do that role in this particular subculture.

You've made your opinion on that clear. Give me a reason, I will not be bullied into it by appeals to tradition or your willingness to throw the game in order to punish people who aren't following your unwritten manual.

They are motivated to lynch scum and not town. They don't know who the other town are.

Whether they should lie about their role depends on their role and what has already been revealed.

It certainly has a downside when you lynch anyone who doesn't follow your protocol  and are absolutely certain you didn't make a mistake.

Of course the same would be true if you tried to enter a community where nobody was suspected for not claiming a role upon request and they called you a thrower for giving role and character without good reason.

She was not caught in a lie, don't rewrite history.

Apparently not the only way since That2User was not caught in a lie and your list has proven nobody a liar yet it has IMO the most significant impact on probabilities.

You're infinitely more likely to not be visited or killed if you don't tell the mafia you're a dreamer.

We're not supposed to find liars, we're trying to find scum.

Low likelihood, but regardless removing a scum buys more time.

Uh huh, those factors mean you threaten to lynch me but not whiteflame because he has reasons for not claiming that he's not giving.

and it's very convenient when you're right no matter what isn't it?

If I'm town I threw it. If I'm scum it's because your qualitative factors are just that damn good.

I think you've trained each other to think about this game a certain way and you perceive any deviation from your meta as senseless and therefore scummy. 

You can't just call every error in judgement YOU make a mistake in someone else's behavior. The real question is whether a full town of people behaving like the other people would have won.

You mix a team of players from NFL 2020 and players from 1910 and they are going to throw a tantrum that somebody was just wildly throwing the ball down the field. That doesn't mean the quarterback pass is trash or that direct runs are trash.

In this case, I think a town of players like myself and That2User would have won.

Notice I haven't made the same mistake. I could have been saying "anyone who doesn't go with the math is scum" but I know that just because someone is town doesn't necessarily mean they play the game by the numbers.

How could I possibly know what was fair or not without knowing all the roles and the powers given to the mafia? We don't even know if there are three of them.

What if the game was a bit unfair?

Also, who said "protective" was identical to "messing with night kill"?

Did Cerulean specifically say his role "messed with night kills"? "protective" is a wider category than "mess with night kill"... and if a townie dies in either case that's at best a frustration to scum and not nearly as useful as something that actually prevents a kill like That2User's ability did. "White Mage"

I explained that carefully in DP2. All that has changed is there is now less room for error.

(1) If we lynch Luna and he's town then you know for sure that it's either Banana or I. You misslynch and town loses, but at least you have a chance of winning that way. Call that 50% chance of hitting scum. Would have been much better if we had started with Luna.

(2) If we lynch Luna and he's scum, then banana and I are exonerated. Not only have scum been found but the chances of miss-lynching town are drastically reduced.

If you lynch Banna or myself first you might be thinking that's 50/50 just like the first scenario, but that's wrong.

The actual alternative is between this 50/50 chance and the union of (1) and (2).

If the probability that Luna is scum is 25% then the probability that he is town is 0.75% and the probability that one of the two people left on the list is scum is at least 0.75 * 0.5 = 0.375.

You add that to the 0.25 and you get 62.5% chance of hitting scum in two days.

You start with people on the list it's not that high. It's not even 50/50 because you can lynch both Banana and I and we might both be innocent. That scenario is likely if Luna is scum, so sticking with the same made up number of 25% the chance that both of us (on the list) are town would also be 25% which means you only have 75% room between Banana and I. 75%/2 = 37.5%.

It doesn't matter how more or less suspicious of Banana or I you are, if there is a non-zero chance that Luna is scum that skews the numbers.

You want to know how little Lunatic would have to be suspected in order to make lynching from the list the safer bet at this point?

P_ls + (1 - P_ls)(0.5) = (1 - P_ls)/2

P_ls = 0

The only time it makes sense (mathematically) is when you're certain Luna is town. Yes I know many things are excluded including the possibility that Luna put his scum partner on the list, but this is the baseline. You have my reasoning, you want to pretend like it’s an excuse go ahead.

I don't believe that for a second.

Maybe you should expand your definition of "town behavior" to include these "throwers". You might lynch less townies.

I don't know, I can tell you if I was modding this I would have 100% put in three scum. You've seen me put 3 scum in two of my recent 10 player games, and town has won both of them. 11 players balances perfectly with 3 scum if your going for your average four mislynches. That or there is a third party role or something to compensate, 4 mislynches seems like an uphill battle for a scum team. 

I can't compensate for poor skill of my fellow townies. Did you not realize what happened? Look at that2users flip. She claimed to be anastasia, and a beloved princess. She was actually a protective role, and Rasputin. She was town and literally lied about her role. Town have no reason to lie. 90% of the reason she was scum read initially was because of the inconsistencies with her claim, her being in the dreamer results was only a bit of icing on the cake. Earth literally self hammered and was CC'ed as the first tsar as russia. 

I never said anything which could be interpreted as "blind trust", or in fact trust of any kind.

In fact the only thing I said about banana vs user was that there was more support for going after user and user's logic for lynching Lunatic immediately was right and that was townie of That2User.

... and guess what she was town. My sole behavioral analysis was correct.

Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.

Did anyone get fruit last night?

Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.

Doesn't matter.

Nobody has been better than random based on claim analysis in this game or the last one I played. It's just a tool for misdirection.

There are no hard and fast rules about the theme character split or the roles that might be seen. I won't engage in any discussion which pretends otherwise.

I targetted whiteflame NP1 and Pie NP2. I asked Whiteflame about the fruit because I just wanted to see if he would lie about it at all. Doesn't rule him out of POE but he was telling the truth

I don't get the logic at all but sure???

Anyway it's either 5v2 or 4v3 

Pie said he wanted to be lynched before MYLO/LYLO

Want to hear from him and I also want to hear if there were any other actions that happened to him

Dude town is throwing. Idek. What was her plan lol. On the one hand its a good thing she wasn't a fvcking BP, but now it makes sense why she had so many inconsistencies with her claim.

Town should not be lying unless they know how to do it. Ideally they just shouldn't do it. 

WTF Was that2users plan?! WHAT?! LIKE WHAT. IS TOWN THROWING WHATS GOING ON?!

Also with that2users role, we now have three protective claims. So with ADOL already being on results, that2users flip, and Ceruleans hint at being a healer, I am a little dubious of ADOL atm.

ADOL who did you protect and why?

I town read you, I was gonna say if your third party we could always just not care about your win con. Problem is how many mislynches we can actually afford. 

Are you third party?

I’m am okay with mharman not claiming. Unless we’re pushing a mass claim and all the others who aren’t claimed also claim, I don’t see a reason he should claim and not others. I am not town reading him either but if there’s a chance his role could come in handy by not claiming it’s worth keeping it safe.

No. The only reason yall have been sussing me is because I haven’t posted a full set of reads.

It's a risk. There's always the possibility of picking someone else and saving her lynch for MYLO/LYLO where her role stops mattering or for before then if we eliminate another member of the scum team, I just don't know that we have a good alternative. I'm less convinced on Mharman, but I could at least see a basis for pushing him.

Vader, cause of the role split idea. Yes I know very thin reasoning.

I would need to ruminate on it, but I'm not immediately opposed to voting anyone involved in the Dream. I suppose I should say that I am also a Protective role- so I'm not willing to clear ADOL on that front. I wouldn't call it exactly a counterclaim, but they're a bit similar. I can full claim if needed, though I would rather not, considering anti-claim exists.

Might depend on the partner. It's exactly identical to a Bodyguard, couldn't the renaming be intended to fit it closer to the character?

There’s a chance That2 just stumbled into being right, but from her POV the plan makes no sense.