ILikePie5

Does anyone else have a reason to contest ADOL’s shield claim?

Lastly I claimed dreamer and my results before the following people even posted: cerulean, mharman, ADOL, banana. Not to mention anyone who had posted already but hadn’t claimed a visit target could have claimed a visit on me any time, including pie, and Whiteflame. So the logic that I am scum here is already banking on me taking the risk of claiming dreamer which is a 50% suicide mission in and of itself and then to top that off I claimed results when literally only one person had made any mention of a visit, meaning if I was scum I was taking the biggest gamble in history that I wasn’t visited np1 by literally anyone. There’s taking risks, and there’s being stupid, and that just suggests the latter every time.

Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways lord pie. (You can't possibly know that unless you're scum)

So it sounds like you're asserting that the list creates a scenario where everyone on the list and the list-maker have the same probability of being scum.

For those of us who can't mystically rule out Banana that would be:

Lunatic: 25%

Banana: 25%

ADOL: 25%

That2: 25%

You think its:

Lunatic: 33%

Banana: 0%

ADOL: 33%

That2: 33%

or maybe:

Lunatic: 20%

Banana: 0%

ADOL: 40%

That2: 40%

but it's not that simple. If lunatic is scum then the chances are that the list is all town or at best one scum. That means the progression of probability is not symmetric. You know more if you start with Luna because testing Luna first tells you something about the probabilities of the list as a whole. Same information, but faster; and that matters because of night kills.

However, if lunatic is scum town still has a decent chance of winning if we face Luna on DP3 instead of this round (DP2). So how about we lynch one person from the list, and then if that person is innocent go for Luna? I don't think that's mathematically optimal, but it's better than misslynching twice without learning anything.

if luna is the dreamer then it indirectly implicates me, i want luna alive if i am mafia, i push banana/liberty 

I am not very keen on That2. The whole Luna suggestion just kinda reeks of scumminess 

Person B lives, I die, I assume at the start of the next day thread it will say "ADOL died in the night when his village was exposed" or something like that. I would be dead so there is no information I could give even if it was given to me.

Maybe a hybrid strategy is in order, but there is no logic in lynching the whole list if it keeps being a mislynch every time.

I can ask.

Are you saying that town never has lethal night actions so there would be nothing to be protected from?

Yea OK, I get that; but I can't tell the difference between protecting scum who can't be harmed and protecting a townie so how does that help?

It does say "night actions" so I'm sure it wouldn't protect from a lynching (if that's even a thing in this game).

we in rolemadness, it is reasonable to believe mafia can stop town prs. in my last mafia game in mafiascum mafia had an ascetic + alien.

Why? This assumes Luna is town/dreamer.

Do you still think we should lynch you DP3 if this DP ends in a mislynch.

if Luna is town, if Luna is scum then it is world changing, we do not know Luna's alignment until we eliminate him

I pick a player (doesn't say town or mafia) to build a Potemkin village around. If somebody tries to use a lethal action in the night, I die instead.

There is nothing about who knows what. I assume that nobody is informed when they are protected and no lethal action is attempted. When/If I die protecting somebody, I assume that would be explained in the night action summary but I am not 100% certain.

The town can be moved to a different player twice in the game. Perhaps that means if I build the down the protection outlast my own life, like I could protect someone, get lynched or murdered, and they would still be protected?

I don't see how any of this helps establish trust though.

I’m not sure I believe ADOL.

That2 is… interesting to say the least.

I’m not gonna ignore the possibility of this being a gambit from Lunatic.

mafia only kills luna if they do not have have an rb, (it is safe to assume they do), materially nothing changes if we mislim outside of luna + mafia kills luna

the only way to be 100% certain in luna being the dreamer is by flipping him, if luna is mafia then he can perpetually claim he is roleblocked and we will never know unless we flip scum within me/liberty/banana (it's possible as scum luna throws in his partner to make his dreamer claim look real to win in elo.) eliminating luna is the optimal play.

mafia is never killing luna, luna is never dreaming again, we need to kill luna to see if mafia is in me/adol/banana.

vtl luna

So for me it’s between that2user and banana. Honestly a bit torn, I don't like the executioner claim and the fact that earth flipped innocent also doesn't look good for her claiming to be the first tsar, but I also don't see why she would lie about it.

I still have most of the same issues with That2users claim, especially the assassination thing, when her family was executed, but I'll cede that if she was going off of her memory of the disney movie she might have thought it was an assassination, though I think she should have deferred to her role pm in this situation.

there is a chance both are scum, but idk. I'll wait to hear thoughts from others. I am split. 

Grigori Potemkin, Shield, because I can protect people from the ugly truth by building a Potemkin village around them.

I will certainly be shielding lunatic. Doesn't cure him of suspicion but it's nearly certain that we will lynch someone on his list and if I die protecting Lunatic (and he is town) then:

A.) That reveals I'm innocent, and since I'm on the list narrows the suspect list to two. Since we will likely lynch someone that narrows it to one. That means you only need to lynch one person next round to either get a scum or prove Lunatic lying scum.

B.) Gives Lunatic a chance at another dream

Why do you ask?

Yeah... I was thinking like roleblocker, politician, double voter, redirector,  something like that. I've seen those on town, but never an executioner... 

Yep. One of That2User, Banana, and ADOL is scum. I am Dmitri Mendeleev, the Dreamer. Justification is that my character was a super smart chemist who discovered three elements on the periodic table after waking up from a dream about it and writing it down immediately. I can apparently receive results every night as long as I am not visited, and 1 mafia will appear on my results no matter what. Seems kind of OP, but is what it is. 

Btw if you are town, never hammer yourself. Town dont self vote. Its gay. I am just assuming you were scum based on that. 

I don't really remember what my PM says. Empire, kingdom, whatever. And the 'alive' bit is what my PM says.

If you think it’s a good idea, I can confirm my role right now. But it will end the day phase. Let me know what you think, I have to go to bed soon.

Justification is because Ivan the Great expanded his empire to cover different ethnic groups and lands. 

Actually I am not even sure this matters. Earth is scum. At least I am pretty sure he is.

Was Albums Mafia that forgettable? The one where you were scum with access to an anti-claim ability?

My point about LYLO/MYLO is that we have 11 players. If there were, say, 3 Mafia, worst-case would typically go:

8-3 at Day -> 7-3 at Night -> 6-3 at Day -> 5-3 at Night -> 4-3 at Day (LYLO)

In order for that to reach MYLO instead of LYLO, there would need to be an extra kill, a missed kill, or a 3P. It wouldn't be the "default" of the game. So I don't get why you were saying one over the other.

My main point is that saying LYLO is usually the "default," so it seems significant to me that he's saying "MYLO" instead. That terminology does get used here often enough that it wouldn't be confused, right?

If he is town I could see him wanting the game in his hands at that point and not wanting to wait until the last minute, but he's also good enough at this game to know you always lynch hunters at MyLO or LYLO. We also wouldn't know the day before MyLO because the day before I think we would assume we are going to lynch correctly and not get to that point. 

Actually, have to aside to say something. I see Pie saying multiple times that he wants to be lynched the day before MYLO. This is a really small thing but it feels significant and I'd love a sanity check about whether or not I'm insane. MYLO is when Town > Mafia by exactly 2 at the start of a Day. But that wouldn't usually happen in a case like this, right? Days usually start with an odd number of players. So usually, the phase where the game is at stake is LYLO, (4-3, 3-2, 2-1), not MYLO. Unless you had a 3P in the mix, an extra kill, or a missed kill.

So I'm wondering if this could be a 3P slip. Or a Mafia KP slip? Not sure. Someone tell me if I'm crazy or not.

And I'm not a big fan of the whole "be indirect but specific" idea, because I'm pretty sure he's played at least one game here where anti-claim doesn't require calling out an explicit claim. It could loophole anti-claim, but it could just as easily be giving Mafia free fodder for whatever that might be, no?

It really is just PoE. That2, Savant and Banana are in my town block, and when you include myself in, thats basically half the player list in my town pile. I understand how it might be frustrating to deal with a player like me, but when you have people like Cerulean who is just vibing in the corner, it seems a little silly to me. I'm not totally against outting my character, I just feel like I need to see a plan and not just give it because you want it.