Total posts: 934
-->
@ILikePie5
Even before and after Covid his approvals remain unchanged
We're only three months in, this shit could get a LOT worse before we get to a point where things can get back to normal
Ive been teaching Middle School classes online since Spring Break. A lot of the admin where I teach think theres a pretty good chance this stretches into the start of the next school year in August, and that online teaching could last into 2021. Thats 6 months on top of the 3 we've already had, and who knows if we'll be any closer to normalcy by then compared to where we are now :/
Created:
-->
@ILikePie5
Once those ads start hitting and coverage on Biden increases, disapproval’s for Biden will go up
The big issue is that as the Coronavirus drags on, the same thing will happen with Trump's disapproval..... His new cabinet members once again failed him by allowing Trump to promise to have millions of vaccines in production and distributed by the end of the year, once that mark gets missed by a mile and the death toll approaches 150,000 or 200,000 then Trump will have egg on his face comparable to the way Carter or Bush HW did by the end of their terms..... National Crises boost Presidential approval for a little bit, but if they drag on and on then it really pulls them down.
There's this idea that Trump or any politician nowadays will get 43 to 44% approval no matter what, and thats absolutely true during times of normalcy, but a national pandemic with 6 digit deaths of Americans and a recession worse than the one that began in 2008 can throw that entirely into jeopardy considering how unprecedented such a combination of events is..... If major hurricanes start sweeping across the south and hit areas like Florida or North Carolina, that will just compound things to a level that no president would be able to politically endure.
Created:
-->
@ILikePie5
Not really, as more people started to get to know him his approvals have decreased.
Maybe by a few points but compared to Trump he's in much better shape in terms of approval from Americans..... If people on the right choose to not acknowledge that, then itll be their problem from now through when Trump loses re-election. The fastest way to lose any sort of competition is to vastly overestimate your own strengths while underestimating the other sides weaknesses.
The President is supposed to be the leader. Having a bunch of cabinet officials running the government is not leadership by any means.
The entire point of the Cabinet is to have selected officials become highly specialized in one field of governance to present the best information to a President.... Then the final decisions get made by the President based on that information. Thats pretty much the strategy Biden would follow, as any President should.
Trump's current strategy these days is to surround himself with spineless yes-men who were appointed because they will fall in line with whatever Trump wants to impose over the government. Trump was far better off with the people he initially appointed to all these Cabinet positions who were brave enough to tell him when he or his ideas were being stupid, but he got rid of them and now he fully exposes himself and his lack of knowledge on a regular basis by trying to enact agendas that arent legally enforceable.
Trump's current strategy these days is to surround himself with spineless yes-men who were appointed because they will fall in line with whatever Trump wants to impose over the government. Trump was far better off with the people he initially appointed to all these Cabinet positions who were brave enough to tell him when he or his ideas were being stupid, but he got rid of them and now he fully exposes himself and his lack of knowledge on a regular basis by trying to enact agendas that arent legally enforceable.
Created:
-->
@ILikePie5
People still don’t know Joe as well compared to Trump because the media doesn’t cover Joe’s gaffes
The media has been covering Joe's gaffes since 2008, Obama himself had to ask his own team how many "Joe Moments" were going to happen after he selected Biden as his VP during the 2008 election before finally fully embracing him. A lot of Democrats also knew about Biden and his moments coming into the 2020 primaries and he still ran through the field because people know he has those moments but are relatively fine with them.
The idea that these blunders are going to 'expose' who Biden is to the people and turn them against him is pure fantasy. People already have a good idea of who Biden is: An imperfect mistake-prone centrist Democrat who may not be the smartest person in the room but overall can surround himself and listen to people who do in order to get the job done when it matters most.
The idea that these blunders are going to 'expose' who Biden is to the people and turn them against him is pure fantasy. People already have a good idea of who Biden is: An imperfect mistake-prone centrist Democrat who may not be the smartest person in the room but overall can surround himself and listen to people who do in order to get the job done when it matters most.
Created:
-->
@ILikePie5
Everyone who hates Trump still hates him. Not everyone who’s votIng for Joe likes him
Right, so this changes pretty much nothing.
Created:
-->
@TheDredPriateRoberts
Well he won the primary despite the knowledge of it while also being outfunded/outcampaigned by numerous other DEM candidates, and also while Trump himself has the infamous pussy-grabber remark and cant take any high ground himself... So Im not concerned at all that this will somehow be Biden's downfall like people are making it out to be XD
Created:
Posted in:
Isnt this the same branch of the Minnesota Police department that shit the bed with the Philando Castile incident?
Created:
The only thing that could really push black voters away from Biden specifically on the issue of their race is if Biden slips up and tries to defend or support the tough-on-crime bill that really targeted african americans signed back in the 1980's or 1990's, and even still only if this slip up happens like 2-3 days before the election.
The fact that Biden has openly admitted it was a bad policy to support, that the policy is from over 20 years ago and effectively irrelevant, and that Obama will surely campaign on behalf of Biden to convince black voters to go with him rather than vote for Trump, all combined will almost surely bring back any wavering black support that could break for Trump following his more recent gaffe, and thats not even taking into account that Trump could likely do or say shit that aggravates black Americans just as easily to going back to Biden.
On another note: In 2016 Trump got all of 8% of the African American vote, how much of that was from people who just didnt like Hillary compared to those that actually liked Trump?...... The 2016 election was effectively a referendum on whether or not 'the system' was working out for Americans. 'The System' overall has worked AGAINST African Americans in almost every measurable way, so those wary of 'staying the course' rather then trying a new path could have found some appeal with Trump.,... This time around though, now that we have had a taste of Trump's way of doing things, Trump has to rely entirely on his record more than what could be speculated to happen back in 2016. Any advantage he might have had up to this point went out the window with the Coronavirus causing the economy to go to shit, the virus impacting minorities higher than average, and Trump's weekly emotional breakdowns regularly making him look bad. I wouldnt be surprised at all if in 2020 the percentage of the African American vote Trump gets drops from 9% to below 5%
Created:
This whole story is going to have lasted all of 5 days following the Minnesota Police incident and Trumps tirade over Twitter fact checking him.
The beauty of the situation that Biden finds himself in is even if he does have a fuck up moment, you only have to wait a week at most for some other fuckery of equal scale to take place that directly involves Trump, and then attention shifts directly to that until the next moment after that happens in another week.
The beauty of the situation that Biden finds himself in is even if he does have a fuck up moment, you only have to wait a week at most for some other fuckery of equal scale to take place that directly involves Trump, and then attention shifts directly to that until the next moment after that happens in another week.
Created:
Voting "yes" to this question will overhaul and streamline the Code of Conduct.A few key changes:
- Removal of the trolling and insults rules
YES ON 1
Created:
Posted in:
To keep it real simple: Horseshoe theory is the idea that the farthest left leaning part of the population and the farthest right wing part of the population can in some circumstances have more in common with each other than those with more centrist beliefs.... The more extreme you go, the more likely you are to adopt the idea that the US government has to be completely redesigned for the country to survive, society itself has to be fundamentally transformed, and that all of this should be done with near brute-force behind the leadership of a single politician rather than through the legislative process. The only differences are in what direction these massive transformations should be made, to the left or right on the political spectrum, but overall these people all the way at the end of the spectrum are so extreme that they have a substantial amount of traits in common with one another, thus the Horsehoe theory having the spectrum represent a horseshoe rather than a linear pattern
Created:
-->
@ILikePie5
How is it that you post twice and still fail to add anything substantial to the conversation worth responding to and analyzing?
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
Your last prediction was that Warren would win the nomination because the Dem establishment would rig it in her favor.
She never won a single state.
If you want to get in the business of making predictions then actually analyze data, organize evidence, and use your head, because you havent done it up to this point and its pretty certain you wont start doing it anytime soon
If you want to get in the business of making predictions then actually analyze data, organize evidence, and use your head, because you havent done it up to this point and its pretty certain you wont start doing it anytime soon
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
You're proving my point pretty effectively by being a fantastic stand-in for the general type of retard I was referring to in the OP
Created:
-->
@Dr.Franklin
the real bulk of political power in the states are state legislatures where republicans have historically dominated
Nah. The Courts are where its at. National politicians can try to convince the country to steer a certain direction, but courts are the ones that can greenlight policy or stop it dead in its tracks.
Created:
-->
@oromagi
I have considered if one side benefits electorally from certain segments of the population suffering from the coronavirus, but since Biden's support in the Dem primary was built a lot on older white voters I'm still skeptical of how much of an edge any one side would have, if you look only at whose voting bloc would be more inflicted by the virus.
Trump 100% won in 2016 by framing the election as a referendum on the 'Washington Machine', and even then a few thousand votes shifted the other way in certain locations would have cost him victory. If his conduct and haphazard economic policies havent erased that edge he had, then his bungling of the Coronavirus will do it for sure. Im just amazed that hes allowing his dumbass supporters to drive him to bungle this easy decision. He would rather lose and be popular with a loud minority than win and be popular with those who begrudgingly tolerate him.
Trump 100% won in 2016 by framing the election as a referendum on the 'Washington Machine', and even then a few thousand votes shifted the other way in certain locations would have cost him victory. If his conduct and haphazard economic policies havent erased that edge he had, then his bungling of the Coronavirus will do it for sure. Im just amazed that hes allowing his dumbass supporters to drive him to bungle this easy decision. He would rather lose and be popular with a loud minority than win and be popular with those who begrudgingly tolerate him.
Created:
The Coronavirus, once it really took hold in the US, gave Trump the best opportunity to secure reelection.... Nothing else before matters now, because we've never seen anything like this , certainly not in our lifetimes. His affinity for Russia doesnt matter, his haphazard feud with China doesnt matter, his alienation of Euro allies doesnt matter, not even the Ukraine story matters anymore. The number one issue that historically has decided if a president gets another term is economic performance, which the Coronavirus absolutely put on life support.
But here's the thing: When the Coronavirus put the economy on lockdown, it made the response to eliminating the coronavirus the single most important issue in America. Success would be curtailing the virus and reopening the economy, Defeat would be fucking it up and causing lots of deaths while the economy sputters. Trumps entire struggle of winning re-election has been effectively reduced to a test where there is only 1 question and the two answers that can be picked are basically true/false. For one option, practice social distancing and have states issue stay-at-home orders to limit the spread of the virus hard. The other option, fuck about and risk letting the virus spread further and faster just so things can stay sort of normal.
Despite the easy decision, Trumps's supporters are actively fucking Trump out of being able to select the correct choice, risking his chances of being able to win reelection.
Support for Stay-At-Home orders is very high across the country. 81% support a NATIONAL stay at home order while only 17% do not:
68% of Republicans also SUPPORT a national stay at home order according to the same poll (Independents 80%, Dems 95%) Voters across all political ideologies are giving the administration a free pass to shut down the economy in order to defeat the virus. The President's own party, the GOP, favor shutting down everything just to defeat the virus, at 2 to 1 support as well!!!
Only the dumbest faction of the GOP are against the idea of a national stay-at-home order, yet they're the ones who are pushing governors to reopen the country. Because they thing shutting down the economy makes Trump look bad, or because they believe some dipshit conspiracy theory that the coronavirus is not meant to be taken seriously, this retarded 1/3rd of the GOP base is pushing governors to end stay-at-home orders. Governors have in some cases buckled under the pressure and allowed reopenings, and its seriously damaging to the GOP..... Below is a link showing the approval rating of governors in states hit hard by the coronavirus.
DEM governors who are in states that are safely Dem in elections is not important. GOP governors in states that are safely GOP in elections are also not important either.....What is important though are the following:
1 - Swing states with DEM governors have shown an increase in support for the DEM Governor
2 - Swing states with a GOP governor have shown an increase in support for the Governor when that governor goes against Trump and sticks with social distancing
3 - Swing states with a GOP governor have shown a DECREASE in support for the Governor when that governor sticks with Trump and allows economic reopenings.
In Ohio, Republican Mike DeWine was one of the first Govs to lockdown the state, close schools, and basically shutdown everything when Trump was downplaying the threat of the virus. DeWine's popularity has soared as a result, from 49% to 80% even though he was a republican who broke with Trump.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, states with Dem governors that Trump won, Governor Evers (Wisconsin) and Governor Whitmer (Michigan) went hard with lockdowns and school closings even though they govern swing states that broke for Trump in 2016. By going sharply against Trump in their Coronavirus handling, their approval ratings within their states have risen from about 43% to about 66%
But if you look at Florida and Georgia, which are Red to Purple states with Republican Governors who stuck with Trump. The approval rating of governors have shit the bed. DeSantis of Florida has lost 7 points to go from 58% to 51%, while Kemp of Georgia is even lower at only 43% approval.
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/
Kemp is exceptional because he went with what Trump recommended so hard that it forced Trump himself to tell Kemp he is going too far!
Kemp is exceptional because he went with what Trump recommended so hard that it forced Trump himself to tell Kemp he is going too far!
The implications of this are pretty clear. In states where Governors have gone against Trump's outlines for what states should do, Governors have risen sharply in popularity. Republican Governors who go against Trump have risen in popularity, Republican Governors who follow Trump have lost support. Many of these shifts are in incredibly important states that will decide the 2020 election..... Michigan and Wisconsin are heavily supporting their Dem Governor, while Florida and Georgia are barely 50-50 on their GOP Governor. Only in Ohio has a GOP governor in a swing state rose in popularity, and he did so by going AGAINST Trump.....
=
=
=
TLDR: This should have been an easy decision.... Once the early opportunities were missed and the Coronavirus became a global pandemic, this still should have been an easy decision. Lockdown everything to defeat the virus, or fuck around and keep things as normal as justifiable. 81% OF VOTERS HAVE GIVEN A FREE PASS TO LOCKDOWN THE COUNTRY AND CRASH THE ECONOMY, they UNDERSTAND the threat and that it has to be defeated at any cost..... The outcomes of these two choices are in favor of Trump as well if he picks the right decision..... If the virus is defeated or curtailed even if the economy takes a hit, voters are fine with that and would probably hand Trump re-election. If the virus is not defeated and these last few months were essentially wasted, Trump will lose reelection........ Yet even then despite such an EASY ASS DECISION, a fraction of GOP voters, the slim minority that are outnumbered by reasonable and sensible Republicans 2 to 1, the slim faction of the party who are as loudly vocal as they are immensely retarded, are pushing Trump and the GOP to keep the economy open and risk letting the disease fuck around, and Trump is listening to them. Because Trump is listening, the GOP 90% of the time is forced to listen as well, and those who are caving have seen their popularity in swing states plummet.
Trump is at risk of losing reelection because of his own retarded supporters. Not all of his supporters are retarded, a good majority of them are not and correctly understand that things should be locked down until there is full control over the virus. But because Trump is instead listening to the loud retarded minority of GOP supporters, his party is losing influence in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Florida, in Pennsylvania, and in Georgia. To make things even worse, the Republican Governor in Ohio is doing well preserving his job going into 2020, but he has done this by going against what Trump recommends, which does not bode well for Trump's odds in Ohio for 2020. Many of these states were ones that Trump barely carried in 2016 when he won the election, making any loss of support almost catastrophic to his chances of winning in 2020. He is losing ground in nearly all of them, and the loud minority of dipshits in the GOP base are the reason why. They are pushing Trump to reopen the economy on the basis of liberty and freedom, which will only fuck Trump and a chunk of the GOP out of power in 2020.
Trump is at risk of losing reelection because of his own retarded supporters. Not all of his supporters are retarded, a good majority of them are not and correctly understand that things should be locked down until there is full control over the virus. But because Trump is instead listening to the loud retarded minority of GOP supporters, his party is losing influence in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Florida, in Pennsylvania, and in Georgia. To make things even worse, the Republican Governor in Ohio is doing well preserving his job going into 2020, but he has done this by going against what Trump recommends, which does not bode well for Trump's odds in Ohio for 2020. Many of these states were ones that Trump barely carried in 2016 when he won the election, making any loss of support almost catastrophic to his chances of winning in 2020. He is losing ground in nearly all of them, and the loud minority of dipshits in the GOP base are the reason why. They are pushing Trump to reopen the economy on the basis of liberty and freedom, which will only fuck Trump and a chunk of the GOP out of power in 2020.
Created:
Posted in:
Young boys grow older,
Only some will grow wiser.
Unbelievable
Julius Ceasar
Unique in Achievements as King
Salad named for him
These Haikus are weird
Lost in meaning, queer context
Only I shall know
Only I shall know
Short days but long nights
Time itself can lose its hold
Time itself can lose its hold
Today is what day?
Heaved into the air
Enters net across the court
Enters net across the court
Game seven goes on
At the end of this
Maddening this whole task was
Every bit worth it
Now Read Each First Letter and tell me to fuck off after you do so
Created:
They need to do what I do and just lurk at least once every two days
Created:
Interesting fucking headline thats easy to miss given the current pandemic going on, the coal industry is virtually in its own deathbed thanks to the Coronavirus
"Coal has been struggling for many years. Now there's a drop in demand because of the economic shutdown (as well as warmer weather), but coal is being pummeled more than other sources of energy.... Right now, coal is more expensive than natural gas, wind or solar in many parts of the country. So when demand slows, coal plants are the first to shut down."
Coal is more expensive than Wind, Solar, and Natural gas, and it's not as powerful as Nuclear. Those reasons were why the coal industry was falling apart BEFORE the coronavirus even hit. Now that the virus has become a pandemic, energy consumption has plummeted, and coal now faces the same issue oil is having: Too much production and not enough places to store the excess. The issue is that while oil is wealthy enough to weather the storm until the pandemic is curtailed, coal does not have that luxury, and shutdowns are now accelerating.
"Andrew Blumenfeld, an IHS Markit research analyst, says coal stockpiles at power plants were "basically double what it should be at this time of year." He also suspects excess inventory is forcing some mining companies to shut down...... Blumenfeld has been in the coal industry for three decades and says he has never seen such a sudden and severe downturn."
When these coal plants shut down, they will not be immediately reopened once the Coronavirus is gone simply because the option for cheaper and more powerful sources of energy exist. Coal up to this point has at least had the benefit of being such a formerly dominant energy source that it could defend the territory it has that remained the most profitable while just trimming the edges to stay relevant. The Coronavirus though has shifted the margin needed to stay profitable that for coal just cannot be sustained, which will inevitably lead to closures of minor companies and then the big ones.
TLDR: The US will run on green energy more than ever because the Coronavirus has been fucking the Coal Industry harder than most actual countries
TLDR: The US will run on green energy more than ever because the Coronavirus has been fucking the Coal Industry harder than most actual countries
Created:
Posted in:
The two biggest reasons that there is a segment of Islam/Muslims that fucking hate America with all their guts is because of the US's:
1) Constant intervention and bombardment of multiple primarily Muslim countries
2) Constant support for Israel even when they do shit like build settlements on occupied Palestine land
If the US strong-arms Israel into returning Palestine to autonomy (in exchange they can keep the Golan Heights and the Gaza strip, they won those fair and square), and then the US promptly fucks off from the region and lets Israel/Saudi Arabia/Iran become the regional problem causer, then 95% of the objections that Islamic extremists have with the US vanishes into thin air.
The US could definitely strong arm Israel into a settlement as well.... Only the US and countries in western Europe do not acknowledge the existence of Palestine, and thats only because the US doesnt and west Europe simply follows along because the US is their big ally. If Israel is dumb enough to resist then they would risk isolating themselves from the US, and also from China and Russia that already recognize Palestine as an occupied area, which is something they simply cannot afford to do when Saudi Arabia and Iran become bigger foes with every passing year.
Why we continue to back Israel and their actions while continuing out fuckery in the Middle East is beyond me
1) Constant intervention and bombardment of multiple primarily Muslim countries
2) Constant support for Israel even when they do shit like build settlements on occupied Palestine land
If the US strong-arms Israel into returning Palestine to autonomy (in exchange they can keep the Golan Heights and the Gaza strip, they won those fair and square), and then the US promptly fucks off from the region and lets Israel/Saudi Arabia/Iran become the regional problem causer, then 95% of the objections that Islamic extremists have with the US vanishes into thin air.
The US could definitely strong arm Israel into a settlement as well.... Only the US and countries in western Europe do not acknowledge the existence of Palestine, and thats only because the US doesnt and west Europe simply follows along because the US is their big ally. If Israel is dumb enough to resist then they would risk isolating themselves from the US, and also from China and Russia that already recognize Palestine as an occupied area, which is something they simply cannot afford to do when Saudi Arabia and Iran become bigger foes with every passing year.
Why we continue to back Israel and their actions while continuing out fuckery in the Middle East is beyond me
Created:
-->
@bmdrocks21
1) their typical party has to run an "extreme" candidate and2) the other party has to run a moderate(practically centrist)Does that sum it up about right?
For the most part yeah. Most voters in the US understand that no presidential candidate will ever be 'perfect' in terms of policies that is everything they support, so when one side is suddenly lit on fire while the other side looks moderately interesting, that will be enough for those who are not hyper-aware of everything that takes place in politics.
In 2016, less Sanders supporters voted for Trump than they said they would, but it may be different this year because this is the second time Sanders got screwed and they are livid.
In 2016 less Sanders supporters voted for Sanders than they said they would as well, thats the nature of depending on the youth vote for anything. They may vocally advocate for something online, but when it comes to vote in person those voices die down real fast.
As for Sanders getting screwed, in 2016 they definitely had a gripe to pick because of the power/influence of Superdelegates and multiple close contests in the primary race. Hillary definitely got the 'insider' support of superdelegates, while Sanders forced enough close contests to stay in all the way until the end..... This time around though in 2020 there weren't either of those issues. Sanders couldn't bring in Warren's base once her campaign faltered while the moderates all united behind Biden, and then ever since Super Tuesday Bernie has gotten whipped 10% to 30% in every state.
Hell Sanders even outraised and outfunded Biden almost every quarter of the primary, and Sanders has better name recognition now than he did in 2016 and he still somehow did WORSE than in 2016. In 2016 Bernie finished with about 1,850 delegates, this year he is sitting at HALF that, and California has already voted.
Created:
-->
@bmdrocks21
Do you think that partisanship is just too big of an issue today, or do you think a decent amount of Democrats would actually switch parties if perhaps a Bernie-like fella was on the (D) ticket? How willing are people to switch parties in a general election in your opinion?
Partisanship is definitely a big issue, now more than ever. These days you have to have a complete disregard for social isues while being dangerously apathetic to foreign policy matters to even have a chance at being a swing voter that could go for either party, while still being politically interested enough to follow along a presidential race and go out and vote..... The percentage of the population that checks off all three of those is very narrow, and it gets smaller when you consider that only these types of people that live in actual swing states are the ones that have any influence or importance.
That being said though, the extremity of a candidate can still absolutely push someone to the other side temporarily. I lean left on a lot of issues, but Ive been pretty open about how a 2016 matchup between Trump and Bernie I would have stayed home. Trump is far more to the right on issues than I'm comfortable with, Bernie is almost equally far to the left in the same regard. The further towards the political extremity a candidate grounds his policy in, the more it pushes voters towards the other side.
Considering how polarizing Trump is, there is definitely a GOP segment drifting towards Biden, for now.
Depending who Biden picks as his VP, there could very well be a DEM segment that drifts back towards the GOP
How much a person could vote for a different party in the general election depends entirely on the candidates who are actually running. Partisanship has made that group of people smaller and smaller over the years, but if you put an extreme candidate on one or both sides of the contest, anyone even in the same zipcode as the center would consider all options, or even vote third party depending on how terrible the nominees are
That being said though, the extremity of a candidate can still absolutely push someone to the other side temporarily. I lean left on a lot of issues, but Ive been pretty open about how a 2016 matchup between Trump and Bernie I would have stayed home. Trump is far more to the right on issues than I'm comfortable with, Bernie is almost equally far to the left in the same regard. The further towards the political extremity a candidate grounds his policy in, the more it pushes voters towards the other side.
Considering how polarizing Trump is, there is definitely a GOP segment drifting towards Biden, for now.
Depending who Biden picks as his VP, there could very well be a DEM segment that drifts back towards the GOP
How much a person could vote for a different party in the general election depends entirely on the candidates who are actually running. Partisanship has made that group of people smaller and smaller over the years, but if you put an extreme candidate on one or both sides of the contest, anyone even in the same zipcode as the center would consider all options, or even vote third party depending on how terrible the nominees are
Created:
For Liberals: who is a Republican that you could potentially see yourself voting for in 2024?
If Rubio in Florida could get his shit together it would be a viable option
Kasich from Ohio would also warrant consideration
Nikki Haley maybe
Kasich from Ohio would also warrant consideration
Nikki Haley maybe
Created:
-->
@n8nrgmi
i'm sick of these bernie brats thinking they are taking the high road by voting third party or not voting biden. if you dont vote biden, you're just letting trump win. that's a fact.
The fact that Bernie had to come out and distance himself from his own campaign communications director (who was refusing to endorse Biden) shows how pathetically stubborn some Bernie supporters are.... I think even Bernie himself is starting to realize that a majority of people in his base are irrational know-nothings who dont have a rudimentary understanding of how the political system even works.
Created:
I think a much easier/more sensible fix would be to keep the electoral system but have delegates be awarded proportionally rather than winner take all.
The electoral system itself gives more power to smaller states, which the Founding Fathers intended, but the issue nowadays has become that 6 or 7 states effectively garner all the attention from candidates since they are in a position to swing the election to either side.... It got to the point in 2012 that Iowa, Florida, Ohio and I think Pennsylvania got half of all campaign rallies from presidential candidates while the other half went to the other 46 states.
By switching to a proportional award system with the electoral college though, this main issue can be cut out while a lot of other benefits can happen
1 - Nearly every state becomes more important..... (the margin of victory could add or subtract the number of delegates a candidate wins)
1 - Nearly every state becomes more important..... (the margin of victory could add or subtract the number of delegates a candidate wins)
2 - Rather than 5-7 swing states we get 15-20.... (which splits up the time candidates spend among more states rather than the same handful)
3 - It provides a better entry for third parties..... (If you get 20% of the vote in a state with more than 5 delegates, that person can win electoral votes)
4 - More issues gain national attention..... (The more states in contention, the bigger the field of issues candidates need to have stances on)
5 - Gives voice to minority parties in opposing states..... (Republicans inCalifornia and Democrats in Texas have much more powerful say)
I did a bit of a project on this for the 2016 and basically, if electoral delegates were limited to the candidates actually running, the final vote count was about 272 for Trump, 265 for Hillary, and a handful for a third party candidate who managed to get 20%-30% of the vote in Utah
3 - It provides a better entry for third parties..... (If you get 20% of the vote in a state with more than 5 delegates, that person can win electoral votes)
4 - More issues gain national attention..... (The more states in contention, the bigger the field of issues candidates need to have stances on)
5 - Gives voice to minority parties in opposing states..... (Republicans inCalifornia and Democrats in Texas have much more powerful say)
I did a bit of a project on this for the 2016 and basically, if electoral delegates were limited to the candidates actually running, the final vote count was about 272 for Trump, 265 for Hillary, and a handful for a third party candidate who managed to get 20%-30% of the vote in Utah
Created:
-->
@bmdrocks21
Im firmly in the camp that a Public Option is as far as the US needs to go in order to reach a happy medium regarding healthcare. A public option would give high-risk poorer people an avenue to get decent coverage, which means private industry providers wouldnt have to put costs very high in order to cover the higher risk portion of the population. At the same time because the US only needs to breakeven with such a program rather than achieve max profit, the buy-in for the public option could be low enoughthat it would keep the private healthcare providers form making their costs too high otherwise people would just keep opting for the public option.. As a conservative, I would honestly not be too opposed to a public option, although I would need it to come with private insurance reforms to make them more competitive
This wouldnt necessarily solve issues with drug pricing and all the problems from the pharmaceutical side of things, but a public option is a hell of an improvement that would leave the better aspects of the private market intact while still helping out Americans the most
Created:
Even though in 2016 Bernie stayed in the race damn near all the way to the end of the race, this time in 2020 he has decided to pull out before officially being eliminated.
Statistically Bernie was in a spot where he would have to win 75% of all contests to win the nomination over Biden, which was damn near impossible to do with Biden polling well in many parts of the country. Statistics never stopped Bernie in the past though, so to see Bernie actually realize he was numerically fucked, and then be forward-thinking enough to actually drop out of the race based on that realization, is a commendable development on his part.
Rather then make this a giant circle jerk/celebration thread though, I'd like to break down why i think Bernie lost the nomination
.
.
.
Reason 1) Bernie banked on something that never materialized.
The youth vote, as volatile as it is, launched Bernie into contention in 2016 and has kept him viable in the national arena ever since.... In 2020 it was expected that the youth vote would have a large turnout, which would be beneficial for Bernie in a race as packed as it was when it first started. This was an acceptable observation to make since Trump is a very polarizing force, and there was a surge in the youth vote during the 2018 midterm elections that saw the Democrats regain the House of Representatives. Midterms always saw lower turnout than general election primaries, so it looked like the youth vote would be out in force for Bernie from the get-go.
The problem was it never did.
https://www.axios.com/youth-vote-2020-democratic-primaries-db5dbbf3-1295-44ae-9d2a-2283c06fbf02.html
Levels of youth voters stagnated or declined from their 2016 numbers in nearly every early state primary that took place by Super Tuesday when Biden launched into the lead. By banking his campaign on the one voter bloc that failed to materialize, let alone expand from previous levels in 2016 to 2018, Bernie was effectively launching his campaign in a rowboat while others were using wave-runners.
Levels of youth voters stagnated or declined from their 2016 numbers in nearly every early state primary that took place by Super Tuesday when Biden launched into the lead. By banking his campaign on the one voter bloc that failed to materialize, let alone expand from previous levels in 2016 to 2018, Bernie was effectively launching his campaign in a rowboat while others were using wave-runners.
.
.
.
Reason #2) Bernie didn't bother actually looking around at the surroundings
Bernie had the youth vote on lockdown, there's no question of that, but it takes a bigger coalition than just one segment of the population to win the nomination, so candidates have to expand their base to other segments in order to build a voter bloc. Bernie far and away failed to accomplish this.... Rather then temper down some of his campaign platforms to appeal to more centrist and moderate Dem voters and expand his base, Bernie instead embarked on a campaign to try to convince moderates to move further to the left into his camp and refused to compromise on anything..... Biden did better with female voters, black voters, older voters, and non-college educated voters than Bernie did, which makes up a vast chunk of the American electorate, and he accomplished this mainly by staying as a centrist and letting Bernie push undecided voters closer to him..... Biden was able to built the coalition of voters that Hillary tried to build in 2016, Bernie just repeated 2016 of dominating the youth vote and trying to convince voters to come to his side rather then alter his platform to appeal to more voters.
.
.
.
.
Reason #3) His platform wasn't practical.
Medicare for All, free college education, massive Wall Street Reform..... Bernie's biggest campaign cornerstones were very leftist ideas popular among his base, but the simple truth is that none of these things are even remotely able to be enacted into law.... No Republican will green light a single payer healthcare system, free college tuition, massive banking reforms, etc, and in all likelihood the GOP will still hold the Senate going into 2021.... Bernie's platform simply isnt obtainable because of the entrenchment of the GOP in the Senate, and anyone who values legislation actually getting passed and changes being made can see that Bernie was incapable of making that happen.
Medicare for All, free college education, massive Wall Street Reform..... Bernie's biggest campaign cornerstones were very leftist ideas popular among his base, but the simple truth is that none of these things are even remotely able to be enacted into law.... No Republican will green light a single payer healthcare system, free college tuition, massive banking reforms, etc, and in all likelihood the GOP will still hold the Senate going into 2021.... Bernie's platform simply isnt obtainable because of the entrenchment of the GOP in the Senate, and anyone who values legislation actually getting passed and changes being made can see that Bernie was incapable of making that happen.
The only way Bernie could pass a fraction of his legislation would be if the Democrats acquired a massive super-majority in the Senate that could override GOP votes. That was not something that was going to happen if Bernie was the nominee, it wouldn't happen no matter who was the nominee. Yet Bernie acted and campaigned as if it was almost a guarantee that he would walk into office with full legislative capability, and the vast majority of voters who figured out that wouldnt likely be the case therefore would conclude that Bernie would largely fail to accomplish any of the things he was campaigning on, which definitely pushed voters away and more towards the middle where Biden was.
.
.
.
.
Reason #4) Bernie couldnt even win Progressive voters.
Let me pose this question. In early October, Warren registered at 26.8% while Biden was at 27.0% When Warren began sliding all the way down to 14% two months later in early December, most of her voters did not go to Sanders, they went to Buttigieg
Why, in the actual fuck, would left leaning Warren supporters who ideologically have more in common with Sanders supporters than any other candidate, decide to support the campaign of a Gay Mayor of South Bend Indiana who is nearly in the exact same camp as Biden?
Warren and Sanders were buddies throughout much of the early days of the primary, in part because their voters had so much in common, yet when Warren lost half her base and Bernie was looking to expand his to stay viable, they went to Buttigieg instead. If Bernie couldnt expand his base to moderate and centrist voters, that's one thing.... Its an entirely bigger and more problematic issue if Bernie couldnt expand his base to include other leftist leaning liberals already within the Democratic Party. If you argue that Warren supporters weren't 'True' progressives and are closer to the center than Bernie's platform, then that there arent enough voters Bernie could EVER convince to support his platform.
.
.
.
Those are the main reasons why Bernie lost the nomination. He banked on the youth vote that never materialized, He failed to expand his base further outward past a fraction of latino voters, almost no part of his platform could have made it through Congress and arrive at his desk for him to sign, and he couldnt bring in Warren supporters to join his base when he desperately needed to.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@bmdrocks21
<br>But this bill got passed essentially unopposed by both political parties. Perhaps this is why voter turnout is so shit- no matter who you vote for, it is the same corrupt bullshit of us getting taxed one way or another to pay for special interests.
I think both sides were just too chicken-shit to actually try to question whether or not an industry should get bailout money. This was a bill that arguably needed to be passed more than any in history, it would almost be career suicide if someone tried to hold it up because of an objection they had over singular provisions in it.
Hopefully the next time one of these stimulus packages is passed the issue can be brought up, or maybe have an entire session sort it out on a side note entirely.
Hopefully the next time one of these stimulus packages is passed the issue can be brought up, or maybe have an entire session sort it out on a side note entirely.
Created:
-->
@Vader
Lets pause for a minute and remember that the US spends more money on the military than the 2nd to 7th most powerful nations COMBINED:If a hostile country like Iran attacks the country, we will be ill prepared due to the small military we have at the moment
If you want to compare the US to Iran directly, Iran spends about $14 billion AT MOST for its military whereas the US spends $650 billion on AVERAGE
If Iran is actually stupid enough to declare war on the US, it would be pretty one sided, and if they somehow manage to beat the US military while spending 46 and a half times less on their military than we do, then frankly we deserve to lose.
Created:
-->
@HistoryBuff
She made like one concession about free college tuition and then hardly brought it up on the campaign trail afterwards. The truth is that Bernie shamelessly tried to plead to superdelegates to support him over Hillary, after initially starting out the campaign decrying the power Superdelegates had in the first place, and he flipped his script to currying their favor after it became clear that the majority of actual people supported Hillary over Bernie. Once all time was exhausted, the so called policy-shift on Hillary's part was made just to save face, both among Hillary supporters to the liberal left, and among Sanders to his own base as well to make it seem like something had been accomplished."in 2016 he stayed in to force her to make concessions to actually do things to try to appeal to the left. Once she made those concessions he campaigned hard for her"
Under those conditions, being stubborn is an absolute requirement.
Opinion and a Concession to the original argument.
He has done 10 times more to help with this crisis than biden has. You want to frame this as everyone should line up and unify behind biden. But he has no plan, and even if he did he couldn't get it out in a coherent way.
Opinion and also Incorrect. Biden has released a plan for Covid 19 https://joebiden.com/covid19/
Created:
-->
@ethang5
Its a little bit of all of them.
Morality wise Trump has made several slip ups that showed his true colors. Every press conference if a reporter asks a question he doesnt like he either attacks the reporter directly, the news network they work for, or sometimes both rather then explain why the question is bullshit, even if the question is normal and on-par for the situation....... When dealing with other world leaders there are countries we are allied with who Trump will start a spat with over the most minor issues, which is dangerous during a time when Russia and China are actively trying to increase their alliances.... There's a bunch of other little thingshe does that by themselves are not necessarily deal-breaking (I could not give less of a shit when early in his presidency he tried to push the idea his Inauguration crowds were bigger than Obama's) but the sheer number of them collectively is an issue.
Morality wise Trump has made several slip ups that showed his true colors. Every press conference if a reporter asks a question he doesnt like he either attacks the reporter directly, the news network they work for, or sometimes both rather then explain why the question is bullshit, even if the question is normal and on-par for the situation....... When dealing with other world leaders there are countries we are allied with who Trump will start a spat with over the most minor issues, which is dangerous during a time when Russia and China are actively trying to increase their alliances.... There's a bunch of other little thingshe does that by themselves are not necessarily deal-breaking (I could not give less of a shit when early in his presidency he tried to push the idea his Inauguration crowds were bigger than Obama's) but the sheer number of them collectively is an issue.
Economics wise his massive tax cut for the wealthy meant to 'spur job creation' was wall-to-wall horse shit. All that extra money went straight into people's pocketbooks or were spent on stock-buybacks rather then any type of job growth, and the idea that tax breaks for the rich create jobs is an asinine concept that needs to die.... Eliminating things in the tax code because the loophole or tax was illogical is one thing that im fine with, but just handing massive amounts of money to rich people and to corporations is just nonsensical.
Policy wise there hasnt really been much passed because of the gridlock that is Congress, but the trade war/tariffs with China highlights an issue.... Tariffs against China and other nations that try to undermine the laws is a tool that can be used correctly, but the issue with what Trump is doing is that he is so inconsistent with it and doesnt plan out in advance an overall trade strategy.... For example the blanket 25% tax on imported steel made everything that was made out of steel rise in price, and then retaliatory tariffs by those countries hit agricultural products the most so farmers started losing tons of income they barely had in the first place. Those who made steel profited, but those that relied on steel suffered as well as farmers who export most of their crops overseas, so the trade war over steel has ultimately hurt US manufacturing and agriculture far more than it helped.....
^ Renegotiating NAFTA into the USMCA on the other hand was a good move, where Mexico and Canada who are largely dependent on US exports were able to play by more fair rules in concessions to the US without the US having to give up too much in response. That was a good example of how tariffs can be used in favor of the US, while other larger issues like trade relations with China have been mismanaged badly.
Created:
-->
@ethang5
I was sure you were a Sanders supporter. You sound instead like a Bernie hater.
Im squarely in the moderate/centrist Dem faction. So while I lean left, I supported Hillary over Bernie in 2016, and then supported Biden and to some degree Klobuchar over Bernie and Warren in 2020.
The biggest issues I have with Warren and Sanders is the impossibility that the platforms they campaign on could ever be implemented. While they might have some moral reasons to substantiate some of their policy beliefs, theres no way in fuck that if they ever won the presidency they could actually pas Universal Healthcare or Free College Tuition. Their blatant denial of this reality in my eyes would make them do-nothing presidents that accomplish little to anything outside of foreign policy, and so I couldnt find it to support either of them since their campaigns are built entirely around unattainable dreams.
If it was Sanders vs Trump in 2016 I would have stayed home
The biggest issues I have with Warren and Sanders is the impossibility that the platforms they campaign on could ever be implemented. While they might have some moral reasons to substantiate some of their policy beliefs, theres no way in fuck that if they ever won the presidency they could actually pas Universal Healthcare or Free College Tuition. Their blatant denial of this reality in my eyes would make them do-nothing presidents that accomplish little to anything outside of foreign policy, and so I couldnt find it to support either of them since their campaigns are built entirely around unattainable dreams.
If it was Sanders vs Trump in 2016 I would have stayed home
Created:
-->
@ethang5
<br>So what is keeping him in?
My guess is incredible selfishness on Bernie's part based on 3 pieces of evidence:
1) He desperately wants power.... In 2016 towards the end of the Dem Primary, Hillary had received around two and a half million more votes than Bernie had, and statistically had enough delegates to become the nominee well before then. Despite the fact that Hillary received more votes from people, and despite the fact that Hillary won the nomination on June 6-7, Sanders continued campaigning and tried to lobby superdelegates to vote for him even though Hillary at this point had won millions of more voters than him....... Do you know how undemocratic you have to be to try to ask for the nomination to be given to you when votes clearly favor another candidate by millions of people? Bernie tried doing that for at least a week, even AFTER the contest was technically over, before finally pulling out of the race.
1) He desperately wants power.... In 2016 towards the end of the Dem Primary, Hillary had received around two and a half million more votes than Bernie had, and statistically had enough delegates to become the nominee well before then. Despite the fact that Hillary received more votes from people, and despite the fact that Hillary won the nomination on June 6-7, Sanders continued campaigning and tried to lobby superdelegates to vote for him even though Hillary at this point had won millions of more voters than him....... Do you know how undemocratic you have to be to try to ask for the nomination to be given to you when votes clearly favor another candidate by millions of people? Bernie tried doing that for at least a week, even AFTER the contest was technically over, before finally pulling out of the race.
2) He's stubborn and has been made more stubborn thanks to his position...... Twice now Bernie has become the posterchild of the progressive left-wing faction of the entire Dem party. Whenever a politician becomes the representative of an entire faction of a political bloc, they become damn near impossible to work with or reason with because they have to represent the values they stand for.... GOP equivalents of this would be Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. One represents the ultra religious and ultra conservative faction of the party, the other represents the more libertarian faction of the party. Both of them are notorious in Congress for being uncompromising and authoring bills they no will fail just to prove a point to their own followers, and thats because they have been anointed as the posterchildren of different factions of the GOP base. Bernie is in a similar position but with the Dem base, so he has become more stubborn in giving up no ground as a result.
3) He's an opportunist...... With the current pandemic gripping the country, Bernie sees this less as a historic problem that unites people to try to work together to defeat this, and more as an opportunity to push his own agenda to try to convince people to flip votes to his side.... "ThIs WoUlDnT bE aS bAd If We HaD MeDiCaRe FoR aLl Or FrEe HeAlThCaRe!" Has become a pretty big rallying cry among Sanders supporters ever since the pandemic came to the US, yet they conveniently ignore how Spain and Italy have similar healthcare systems and are being fucking RAVAGED by the disease. Covid-19 has become the biggest concern among Americans, Bernie wants to try to use the disease to reinvigorate his dead campaign because the opportunity is there.
Created:
Posted in:
Im more annoyed at the fact that Airlines and Cruise Ship companies are getting money when we should be fucking leaving them out to crash and burn.
Airlines were already making good profit from lower fuel prices thanks to domestic fracking and the Saudi's trying to price-fuck Russia out of profitability, but rather then save some reserves the airlines spent damn near all of their money buying back their own stock at high prices before they ended up crashing anyways. The fact that they would fuck up this badly not even 2 decades after they had to be bailed out after 9/11 and almost had to be bailed out again when travel dropped in 2009 shows widespread industry incompetence....
Cruise ship industries meanwhile have deliberately established their Headquarters in other countries in the Caribbean to avoid US tax laws. Carnival Cruise lines are stationed out of Panama, the Bahamas, and Malta yet I think 80% of their income comes from the fuckin US. Why should companies that deliberately operate outside US tax law be able to obtain billions of US bailout funding?
Airlines were already making good profit from lower fuel prices thanks to domestic fracking and the Saudi's trying to price-fuck Russia out of profitability, but rather then save some reserves the airlines spent damn near all of their money buying back their own stock at high prices before they ended up crashing anyways. The fact that they would fuck up this badly not even 2 decades after they had to be bailed out after 9/11 and almost had to be bailed out again when travel dropped in 2009 shows widespread industry incompetence....
Cruise ship industries meanwhile have deliberately established their Headquarters in other countries in the Caribbean to avoid US tax laws. Carnival Cruise lines are stationed out of Panama, the Bahamas, and Malta yet I think 80% of their income comes from the fuckin US. Why should companies that deliberately operate outside US tax law be able to obtain billions of US bailout funding?
Created:
TL;DR VERSION:
If polling goes the way it has been going, Biden will be within 100 delegates of winning the nomination after multiple states vote on April 28th.... After that, the next biggest state that votes that could put Biden over the top will be Indiana, which votes on May 5th and has 82 delegates up for grabs.
Therefore, if all goes as predicted, Mike Pence's home state of Indiana will be the one to statistically fuck Bernie out of the nomination and hand Biden the outright victory, assuming Bernie doesnt do something sensible like withdrawing before then
If polling goes the way it has been going, Biden will be within 100 delegates of winning the nomination after multiple states vote on April 28th.... After that, the next biggest state that votes that could put Biden over the top will be Indiana, which votes on May 5th and has 82 delegates up for grabs.
Therefore, if all goes as predicted, Mike Pence's home state of Indiana will be the one to statistically fuck Bernie out of the nomination and hand Biden the outright victory, assuming Bernie doesnt do something sensible like withdrawing before then
Created:
Thanks to the suspension of future primaries until later dates + finalized totals from states that already voted but were taking their sweet fuckin time allocating delegates, we not have a super accurate standing for both Biden and Bernie in terms of delegate math and can play around with scenarios for future states. Lets dive into this
Total number of delegates = 3,979
Total number of delegates = 3,979
Total needed to win = 1,991
Total already given out = 2,302
Biden = 1,217
Bernie = 914
Others = 171 combined
Total still up for grabs = 1,677
Bernie needs 1,077 delegates to clinch the nomination, 64% of all that remain
Biden needs 774 delegates to clinch the nomination, 46% of all that remain
(The totals add up to 110% because of the chunk of delegates that were won by other candidates before they dropped out)
=========================================================================================================
Now that we have the numbers set up, we can start diving into future primaries to sort of paint the picture of how things play out.
OHIO = 136
Ohio was supposed to have a primary back on the 15th but moved theirs to June 2nd. Multiple polls in that state taken before the primary was supposed to take place had Biden leading Bernie by a vote of 57.5% to 35.0%
If those numbers hold by the time Ohio does vote, Biden would get about 78 delegates, Bernie would get approximately 58
Biden = 1,295
Bernie = 972
===========================
GEORGIA = 105
Georgia is a deep southern state which is an area that Biden does very well in, so its no surprise that the one poll held for the state had Biden leading Bernie 66% to 22% (11% undecided according to the poll)
If we stick to just the 66%-22% that does have a preference for right now, Biden would get about 69 delegates, Bernie would get about 23 delegates
Biden = 1,364
Bernie = 995
Bernie = 995
(The undecided 11% comes out to about 13 delegates left over) Considering Biden's advantage in southern states, lets give him 7 and Bernie 6
Biden = 1,371
Bernie = 1,001
===========================
PUERTO RICO = 51
538 has Biden's support in the state at 58% while Bernie is closer to 35% Bloomberg is expected to get 2% thanks to early write-ins but that will be disqualified for not meeting the threshhold to win delegates, with the other 5% undecided
If we stick with the 58-35 numbers again, Biden would get 30 delegates, Bernie would get 18. The other 3 that would be left over we can give Biden 2-1 so it would be Biden + 33 and then Bernie + 19
Biden = 1,404
Bernie = 1,020
==========================
ALASKA = 15
HAWAII = 24
Alaska is pretty close with Biden up over Bernie 53-47%
Hawaii is also close with Biden up over Bernie 56-44%
Because both states are small and pretty close to near even in polling, we can do some quick maths and split delegates almost evenly with Biden getting a slight advantage.... Biden + 8, + 13..... Bernie + 7, + 11.....
Biden = 1,425
Bernie = 1,038
================================
LOUISIANA = 54
Biden has a massive lead in this state, 76% to 20%, which makes sense given its a southern state with a massive African American base who Biden does very well with.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/louisiana/If we follow the numbers Biden would get 41, Bernie would get 11
Biden = 1,466
Bernie = 1,049
================================
Wyoming is so utterly irrelevant with 14 delegates that with Biden leading 58-42, Ill just split it 8-6 to both candidates since its not worth the analysis
Biden = 1,474
Bernie = 1,064
================================
WISCONSIN = 84
Biden leads the state 56% to 42%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/wisconsin/
If the numbers hold, Biden would get 47 delegates, Bernie would get 35
Biden = 1,521
Bernie = 1,099
=================================
Let me pause right here to go over a few things.
Biden = 1,521
Bernie = 1,099
Others = 171
Total won so far = 2,791
Remaining = 1,190
Needed to win = 1,991
After Wisconsin votes on April 7th, Bernie will be 892 votes short of winning the nomination, which of the 1,190 remaining means at this point he would need to win all remaining states by 75%. Thats about on par with what he has to do right now
Biden, at 1,521, needs only 470 more delegates to win the nomination.
After Wisconsin votes, the next primary vote take place on April 28th where 6 states cast votes:
Delaware = 21 delegates
Rhode Island = 26 delegates
Connecticut = 60 delegates
Maryland = 96 delegates
Pennsylvania = 186 delegates
New York = 274 delegates
Total delegates up for grabs = 663 ...... This is is where Biden pulls into the range of winning the nomination
If we look at polls of the 3 biggest states, MD, PA, NY:
Biden leads in New York 56 to 26........ 56% of 274 is 153 delegates
Biden leads Pennsylvania 68 to 30...... 68% of 186 is 126 delegates
Biden leads Maryland 70 to 29............ 70% of 96 is 67 delegates
From those three states alone, Biden would get 346 delegates, Which is 124 short of the nomination.... The 3 remaining states combined only have 107 delegates remaining, meaning that Biden will not be able to win the nomination when these states all vote on April 7th.
If Biden gets about 60 of the other 107 delegates from the smaller states, he still needs about 64 more to finally win
Kansas and Guam after that have about 46 votes
And then there is Indiana: 82 delegates
If the numbers hold, Biden would get 47 delegates, Bernie would get 35
Biden = 1,521
Bernie = 1,099
=================================
Let me pause right here to go over a few things.
Biden = 1,521
Bernie = 1,099
Others = 171
Total won so far = 2,791
Remaining = 1,190
Needed to win = 1,991
After Wisconsin votes on April 7th, Bernie will be 892 votes short of winning the nomination, which of the 1,190 remaining means at this point he would need to win all remaining states by 75%. Thats about on par with what he has to do right now
Biden, at 1,521, needs only 470 more delegates to win the nomination.
After Wisconsin votes, the next primary vote take place on April 28th where 6 states cast votes:
Delaware = 21 delegates
Rhode Island = 26 delegates
Connecticut = 60 delegates
Maryland = 96 delegates
Pennsylvania = 186 delegates
New York = 274 delegates
Total delegates up for grabs = 663 ...... This is is where Biden pulls into the range of winning the nomination
If we look at polls of the 3 biggest states, MD, PA, NY:
Biden leads in New York 56 to 26........ 56% of 274 is 153 delegates
Biden leads Pennsylvania 68 to 30...... 68% of 186 is 126 delegates
Biden leads Maryland 70 to 29............ 70% of 96 is 67 delegates
From those three states alone, Biden would get 346 delegates, Which is 124 short of the nomination.... The 3 remaining states combined only have 107 delegates remaining, meaning that Biden will not be able to win the nomination when these states all vote on April 7th.
If Biden gets about 60 of the other 107 delegates from the smaller states, he still needs about 64 more to finally win
Kansas and Guam after that have about 46 votes
And then there is Indiana: 82 delegates
Created:
Posted in:
Go hard on energy companies
gas is pushing below $2 a gallon in a lot of states or even less than $1 a gallon in certain areas, both due to the Coronavirus and also the Saudi-Russia price war.... Once the coronavirus is under control and Russia buckles from the low prices (Russia cant sustain low prices like Saudi Arabia can) then a lot of energy companies will come roaring back
gas is pushing below $2 a gallon in a lot of states or even less than $1 a gallon in certain areas, both due to the Coronavirus and also the Saudi-Russia price war.... Once the coronavirus is under control and Russia buckles from the low prices (Russia cant sustain low prices like Saudi Arabia can) then a lot of energy companies will come roaring back
Created:
-->
@Dr.Franklin
Pretty superficial reasons would be my guess.... A nod to female voters, trying to diversify the ticket, trying to distance the idea that Biden is inappropriate around women, appeal to certain voter demographics..... It might just be the desire for positive pressWhy?
Created:
-->
@Greyparrot
Literally no part of your response is worth me responding to
Created:
-->
@ILikePie5
It certainly doenst roll off the tongue yeah, but it still seems like it would work better than a Biden/Sanders ticket or a Biden/Clinton ticket XD
Created:
-->
@TheDredPriateRoberts
It would be a rough transition should it happen, but how she would handle it would be about the same as Harris or Warren or Klobuchar.Do you think she could fill that role?
The best type of candidate to step in to fill the role of president would be someone who was at some point a governor rather than a senator. Senators are elected primarily to represent a states interests in Congressional votes, but governors are the ones who actually have to manage over a state and serve as an executive role.
So while Masto wouldnt just sail into the role as president if she had to, she would do about as well as anyone else who hasnt been governor of a significant number of people.
Created:
Joe Biden, The Dem candidate whose odds of winning the nomination are obvious to everyone other than Bernie Sanders himself, pledged to choose a woman as his Vice President for the general election should he win the nomination, and ever since there have been rumors swirling about who he would pick.... The most obvious thoughts were Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, or even Amy Klobuchar.
Recently though, a leak from Bidens camp indicates that Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is in the 'top three' of his choices for who he would like as VP. After some casual research, I think she is the best fit to be Biden's VP compared to the three previous I mentioned before. Here's why
Why Kamala Harris is not a good fit = Biden picking Harris as his VP, as a nod to her early strength in the race, would also be a nod to African Americans, who in South Carolina are almost single-handedly responsible for launching Biden back into the race and then well into the lead following up on Super Tuesday.... The thing is though, Biden will almost certainly win the African American vote no matter who is his VP.... Being Obama's VP gives him more credit with black voters than any person of color he could select as his Vice President, so having Kamala Harris fill that spot doesnt really bring anything to the table for him that he doesnt already have.
Why Elizabeth Warren is not a good fit = To say that Biden and Warren are very ideologically apart from each other, at least by Dem standards, is an understatement. They more often then not have been on differing sides of issues that polarized the Dem base for the better part of 10 years now, and they sure as shit didn't buddy-up in the primary either. One line of thinking was that Warren should be Biden's VP to help bring out the progressive voters, who sure as shit dont like Biden, but Warren no longer really has that voting bloc behind her. A large portion of the progressive base eventually ended up in Sanders' camp who believe hes the only one that represents them and that Warren sold out. Having Warren be selected as VP would not necessarily bring much to the table for Biden since Warren pretty clearly does not have much of the progressive bloc behind her anymore. Where Kamala can give Biden something he already has (African American support), Warren would probably fail to deliver that which Biden doesnt have (The Progressive Base)...... There's also lots of baggage she would bring to the ticket and how she could be a uniting force for the GOP to turn out in opposition, and could make the contest tighter when a VP selection is meant to tip the odds more in ones favor.
Why Amy Klobuchar is not a good fit = I have openly admitted in the past that if Klobuchar had polled as well as Biden nationally and early in the primary that i would have supported her to be the nominee over Biden. She's a moderate Democrat like Biden with a better speaking ability with 90% less gaffes. The issue for Klobuchar on why she would not be a good fit for Biden as his VP is the same issue for why she didnt get the nomination herself: She doesnt have a national profile. Outside of Minnesota, Klobuchar isnt going to bring voters to the Biden ticket who werent already pretty close to supporting him in the first place. Maybe she would have a good effect in Wisconsin which as a swing state is one Biden needs to carry to win the nomination, but outside of the upper midwest, Klobuchar being next to Biden's name on the ticket isnt going to sway many people.
Now comes the big differences
Why Catherine Cortez Masto is a good fit = Despite only being a senator for 3 years and not really standing out the way other female Dems have (AOC), Catherine Cortez Masto does bring many things to the table as a possible VP candidate....
For one, she comes from Nevada, a swing state which makes the area of substantial importance going into the general election.
Second, she is Latina. Not only Latina, she is the first Latina Senator to be elected to the US Senate in history. Biden HAS struggled with the Hispanic vote in the country in the primary, that bloc has gone with Bernie more often then not. If Catherine Cortez Masto is able to increase Hispanic turnout for the Dem ticket, assuming she would as the first Latina nominated as VP, that would be a massive boost for Biden.
Third, if the boost in support from Hispanic voters is great enough, it allows opportunity for Biden to become more competitive in states that have big Latino populations, such as Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, all of which are either in solid swing state territory or drifting dangerously close to it. Even if a Biden-Masto ticket doesnt ultimately win Texas and Arizona, their increased ability to compete in those states could force the Trump team to focus money on those states in order to keep them, which is less money they will be able to spend on other swing states. In terms of electoral math, appointing Masto as VP opens up many inroads in southwestern states that could make Biden's job of winning much easier.
Fourth, Masto doesnt have a lot of baggage. Warren has more then enough baggage to fire up GOP opposition, Harris has caught some criticism for actions as Attorney General in the past, but Masto is so new to the political realm that there isn't any glaring problems to her past so far. A VP should do everything in their power to NOT bring negative attention to a campaign while at the same time bringing a lot of positive things to the table, and Masto's short political career in the Senate immunizes her from having to deal with scandalous votes from the past.
So not only does Masto not have a lot of baggage to deal with should she be selected as VP, she would vastly benefit Biden's competitiveness in southern states, increase his support among latino voters who he has struggled with in the primary, and ultimately be able to bring more to the ticket then Harris or Warren or Klobuchar could.
If Biden's goal is to position his campaign to go into the general election with the easiest path to winning, then having Catherine Cortez Masto as his VP would arguably be the best choice he could make (since he is limiting himself to choosing a female candidate)
If Biden's goal is to position his campaign to go into the general election with the easiest path to winning, then having Catherine Cortez Masto as his VP would arguably be the best choice he could make (since he is limiting himself to choosing a female candidate)
Created:
When AOC, arguably the most famous member of the House of Representatives after Pelosi herself, endorsed Bernie Sanders over Elizabeth Warren early in the Dem primary, it was a tremendous win for the Sanders campaign and the beginning of the end for the Warren campaign. Bernie managed to at one point climb to the top of the polls following AOC's endorsement and subsequent early wins, but then Biden's comeback in SC and on Super Tuesday put Bernie in the rearview mirror ever since.
However, theres an interesting little detail lost in the noise of all of this that few people realized: After a while, AOC stopped campaigning for Bernie
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/13/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-refused-multiple-requests/
From Feb 11 to March 8th, AOC declined multiple requests from the Sanders campaign to have her campaign for him, to the point that getting her to rally for him in NH was the equivalent of 'Pulling Teeth' apparently. Following New Hampshire, AOC basically fell off the map for Sanders and left him on his own, and there are two prevailing theories why
#1) The plan was always a temporary endorsement before AOC had to go back to campaigning for her own seat in the House
#2) AOC was miffed at things Sanders did and treated her, namely accept an endorsement from Joe Rogan
Whichever the case/excuse may be, it highlights a fundamental problem that ultimately brought down Bernies campaign
If the case is the first theory, that AOC would only temporarily stump for Bernie before going back to her own business, then it highlights the lack of turnout and commitment by the progressive left..... A single seat in the House of Representatives, which will almost certainly stay blue in 2020, is nothing (to progressives) compared to the prospect of Bernie Sanders becoming the nominee of the Dem Party to go against Trump. Dems have never had a nominee like Bernie, and this was possibly their best chance to get it since Bernie was the frontrunner at one point. But then AOC disengaged....
When AOC, the literal posterchild for the next generation of liberal progressives, cant even stick with Bernies campaign past New Hampshire, then how on Earth could it be expected that anyone else would? AOC at one point worked for Bernie's campaign before she was even into politics herself, they endorsed almost every issue they had in common with each other, and STILL after a while AOC thought a better use of her time would be to focus on her own issues rather then keep stumping for Bernie..... When your biggest supporter (in terms of political clout) pulls out after just two contests, then your campaign and your appeal as a candidate is fundamentally flawed and restricted to a size that can never be big enough to capture the nomination.
If the case is the second theory, that AOC started to disengage chiefly because Bernie, among other things, openly welcomed an endorsement by Joe Rogan, then it just brings the 'purity' weakness back into question, the idea that Bernie never set out to expand his base from what it was in 2016, and would be openly hostile towards those who were not completely in line with the entirety of his platform..... We saw this towards the end of the primary this year in 2020 when Sanders and Warren supporters became openly hostile with each other over minor details, and even Warren's shift from Medicare for All to a transition plan cost her about half her support over time even though her ultimate goal was to still aim for Medicare for All.
Do you think Joe Biden's supporters give much of a shit about how in tune all of his supporters are with his overall policy positions? Fuck no, they like him mainly because they think hes the best bet to beat Trump and that he was Obama's VP for 8 years..... When Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg all pulled out of the race, their support almost unilaterally joined up with Biden's base for those exact reasons. Elizabeth Warren dropped out most recently, and there isnt much of a sign that her base went even in a majority with Sanders. (Warren polled at almost 14% nationally before pulling out, Bernie's numbers since then have only increased 6 points from 29% to about 35% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html)
If AOC decommitted to focus on her own campaign, it shows that the progressive left are simply not as enthusiastic about Sanders as some of his online supporters loudly claim to be. This is also backed by lack of turnout with the youth vote that Sanders was banking on.
if AOC decommitted as an objection over Sander's embrace of Joe Rogan, it shows that the desire for purity and uniformity among supporters is more important to the progressive left then the overall number of them, where they would prefer to be at 30% and all on the same page then at 60% and pretty diverse. This can be backed by the hostility between Warren and Sanders campaigns despite the two being the closest together in terms of ideology.
Created:
Biden destroys Sanders in Illinois. This race is effectively over.
Part of me thought that if Bernie could get to the 45%-47% range in Illinois he could spin it to stay in the race. Florida going Biden was a forgone conclusion, but Ohio delayed its primary entirely due to the virus, so if Bernie did even half decent in Illinois he might be able to justify to his base staying in and holding out hope.
But right now Bernie is struggling to even stay above 40%, which is a fuckin MASSIVE problem for him since right now, Biden is getting nearly twice as many delegates out of Illinois as Bernie is https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
With the massive win in FL already factored in, the current delegate count it Biden leading 1121 to Bernie's 839.....
With 3979 delegates total
Minus Bidens 1121
Minus Bernies 839
Minus the 168 already pledged to other candidates who have since dropped out
3979 - (1121 + 839 + 168)
3979 - (1960 + 138)
3979 - 2098
There are now only 1881 delegates left.
41 of those are still Florida delegates that havent been allocated yet, Biden will get probably 25-30 of them
16 of those are Illinois delegates not allocated yet. Biden will probably get 10 of them
California also has 12 and Washington also has 5 up for grabs.
That brings us to 1881 - (12 + 5 + 16 + 41) = 1881 - (74) = 1807
1,991 delegates are needed to win the nomination. Bernie has 839, meaning he needs 1,152 to become the nominee
1152 / 1807 which is about 1150 / 1800 = 63.9%
In order to win the nomination, Bernie would (roughly) have to win ALL remaining states with at least 63.9% of the vote
In the entire primary, Bernie has only ever gotten more than FIFTY percent of the vote in three contests: Vermont, North Dakota, and the Northern Mariana Islands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
So yeah, this race is over barring Biden dropping dead.
Created:
I realize that the title of this thread makes perfect sense and doesnt need any clarification, but just for anyone who is equally confused as they are curious, here's the deal: Spring Break in FL got extended a week (im a teacher btw) thanks to the Coronavirus. Knowing Florida for being, well, Florida, that week will likely be extended longer as this virus rages harder through the state in the coming days. Since I am getting bored shitless of getting headhshotted in MW by kids who only use the 725 shotgun, and i'm also getting bored of conquering the world as Nazi Germany in Hearts of Iron 4, I came up with this idea of 'trial' debates for politicians. Heres how they would work
1 - Each debate would focus on one politician in the 2020 race.... Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bloomberg, Sanders, Buttigieg, Biden.... I would be the prosecutor in every case, the other debater would be acting as the defense for the candidate.
2 - The first round would be a general introduction of the 'charges' against the candidate and the witnesses who will be called to testify. The charges and testimony will be goofy in nature and be limited to just two or three (Example: In Beto O'Rourke's trial, Beto could be charged with Racial Profiling against a sentient AK-47, who has a wife and a family in the state of Texas, as a reference to Beto's policy of mandatory gun buybacks as part of his campaign platform)
3 - In rounds 2-4 of the debate, a new 'Witness' would be introduced to speak out against the defendant/politician. I would go first in making a case against the politician, then the other person in the debate would get to make up his own testimony using the same witness (Ex: I would ask the Ak-47 what Beto O'Rourke threatened to do to him to make Beto look bad, the other person in the debate could bring up the criminal history of the AK-47 to try to make him look like an unreliable witness and argue that the charges should be dismissed)
4 - At the end of the debate, there would be a short closing argument like what you see at the end of every Law and Order episode. Voters will decide the guilt or innocence of the candidate and that would be the end of it
I think these debates would be fun, stupid, hilarious, and kind of interesting to read through so im putting this out there to see if anyone would be interested.
SIGNUPS:
- You can sign up for any politician you would be interested in being the defense for
- You can sign up for as many trials as you would be interested in. They wont all happen at once
- More than one person can sign up to represent one candidate. If this goes well enough and is funny I might do multiple trials for a candidate
BETO O'ROURKE
-
-
PETE BUTTIGIEG
-
-
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
-
-
KAMALA HARRIS
-
-
ELIZABETH WARREN
-
-
BERNIE SANDERS
-
-
JOE BIDEN
-
-
DONALD TRUMP
-
-
Created:
-->
@fauxlaw
Trump can barely make his way through an entire sentence without making Biden look like a MIT professorI don't think it takes much reflection to observe that Trump, on any given day, appears more alert, on point, and certain of himself, than does Biden
Created:
-->
@TheRealNihilist
I think the Bernie shills really overestimated their "grassroots" support.
There is a question of what percentage of Bernies support in 2016 were from people who believed in his message and policies and what percentage were supporters who just really didnt like Hillary Clinton..... Bernie has for the most part not changed a single thing about his campaign in 2020 than the one he ran in 2016, but he is dropping the ball all over the place now that he has another 1v1 vs Biden.
Created:
-->
@TheRealNihilist
Theres only two ways Bernie can win
1) Biden drops dead
2) Bernie somehow pulls off massive come-from-behind wins in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Arizona one week from now
Created:
Ive always secretly wanted there to be some clause or condition in the Constitution that any president who is 70 or older should be limited to a single term should they win the nomination. Just as a precaution
Created: