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@Greyparrot
It wasn't too far off.
Im surprised it was this spot on this time around..... RCP had it 55.7% to 33.3% in favor of Biden, the current vote tally is 52.9% to 36.6%
While not perfect, a 3 point miss is way the hell closer than the 10 point miss in 2016
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@Vader
Washington is tied at 32.7%. If he genuinely loses Washington, it's game over
The fact that Washington is even close is horrible for Bernie since the west coast was supposed to be his firing wall. If he cant win in the West Coast then there isnt any place else he will have better odds since the South clearly belongs to Biden, the midwest is also not within his grip, and the NE is too depopulated to rely on to carry him to the nomination.
A big win for Biden in Michigan really knocked Bernie on his ass tonight, if he loses in Florida and Ohio and Illinois on the 17th then he will be completely and utterly fucked
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Ill keep this brief cause im tired as fuck
2016, as we all know, became known for the inaccuracy of polls conducted by numerous outlets. Hillary had leads in multiple states right up to election day and then lost nearly every state that was even marginally close, sometimes with final results being almost 8 full points different than what was predicted by polls leading up to election day.
One of the biggest ones to miss the mark was Michigan.
In the 2016 Dem primary, Hillary vs Bernie, 7 polls in the month of March taken before Michigan went out to vote had Hillary ahead of Bernie by an average of 57% to 37%..... When the results came in though, Bernie ended up pulling out a win, 50% to 48%, in a dramatic almost 10 point turnaround. Since Michigan was the biggest state to be won that day, the surprise win bought Bernie a new lease on life campaign wise and allowed him to stay in the race much longer than before.
Today, Bidens lead in the state is nearly exactly the same as what was predicted for Hillary 4 years ago,
With an average lead of 58% to 33%, which is damn near identical to what happened in 2016, Biden is projected to cruise to victory in the state. The state primary takes place tomorrow, and it remains to be seen if polling outlets adjusted from their missed forecasts last cycle and will hit the mark this time around, or if they evidently learned nothing and are as unreliable as ever.
A surprise Sanders victory could indicate we're still as blind as ever in seeing which candidates are actually doing well. A Biden victory though by numbers being projected would indicate that polling outlets finally got their shit together, and that going into the general election 2020 will not have as much mystery to it.
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Embittered Bernie bros rebuffed for the 2nd election in a row by the media and DNC elites will most likely depress voter turnout by staying home, and that's no surprise considering Sanders is widely regarded as having more energetic supporters than Biden.
Id like to challenge that assumption actually..... Bernie may have the most loyal and outspoken supporters, but they are hardly the most energetic. Weve seen this just from how much his supporters DONT actually end up voting in the polls when the time comes.
Look at the some of the states Bernie lost in 2016 and now again in 2020...... He lost Iowa both times, Virginia both times, North Carolina both times, Texas both times, Massachusetts both times, Florida both times..... Four of those are pretty important swing states that a candidate simply cannot afford to lose in order to become President, and Bernie repeatedly has shown that he doesnt do well in those states.
If Bernie doesnt win the nomination, I dont see Trump getting the win just because Bernie supporters stayed home. For the most part they already have stayed home to begin with, and in the actually important swing states that really decide the election, a majority of Dems prefer anyone other than Sanders to be the Dem nominee.
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@Greyparrot
He pulled some similar shit last time in 2016 as well and ended up losing the state to Hillary 64% to 33%.
The fact he didnt learn to keep his mouth shut yet again is a testament to how stubborn and unstrategic he could be
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Update on a few states now that more polls have come out
Michigan is now squarely in Biden's camp, new polls has him up by 6 over Bernie (29% to 23%) Poll still included Bloomberg as a candidate at 11%. Assuming most of his support transfers to Biden, he'll have a solid lead in Michigan which votes in just 4 days.
Missouri on the other hand has swung far back toward Bernie, current polling has him trailing Biden by only 4 points (48-44). Fuck knows how this big of a swing took place but Missouri is far from safe Biden-territory as previously believed
Florida has somehow grown far more in Biden's favors then last time. He is up 61% to 12% over Sanders, and this poll had Bloomberg at 14% which would give Biden an ABSURD margin of victory in the gigantic state.
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@ethang5
If all of this is true, why are so many democrats worried about a contested convention?
Democrats were worried about a contested convention prior to this point because of the candidates who were still in the race.... Bloomberg with his unlimited finances could buy votes all the way up to the convention if he wanted to commit to it, Klobuchar showed flashes of potential after finishing 3rd in NH, Buttigieg won Iowa and had long been a fundraising king of the candidates still running, Biden revamped his campaign with a win in SC, all while Warren and Bernie were still fighting over the progressive vote.
Ever since SC though the fear of a contested convention have plummeted because candidates started giving up...... Buttigieg dropped out to later endorse Biden, Klobuchar followed suit, leaving the field down to four. Then after Super Tuesday where Biden pulled out some surprise wins and swept the south, Bloomberg backed out and endorsed Biden, making it three and uniting the moderate base behind Biden...... With Warren doing poorly and Bernie the only other candidate who has won a race, it is now effectively down to a 2 person race when not even a week ago there were 6 who had a respectable shot.
Since everyone other than Sanders and Biden only have 140 delegates locked don of like 3,700 up for grabs, the odds of a contested convention happening between two main candidates is not effectively zero thanks to the events of this week.
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Now that Super Tuesday is over and Biden has jumped to the front of the race (Delegate count is 566, Bernie is at 501, all others at 128 combined) the next batch of states hold key influence in deciding who becomes the nominee. The following states will hold primaries between now and March 17th:
Michigan (125)
Missouri (68)
Washington (89)
Arizona (67)
Florida (219)
Illinois (155)
Ohio (136)
Other states will also vote, but the 7 listed above are the only ones where more than 50 delegates each are up for grabs, meaning that they are the states that actually matter..... These 7 states combined have about 860 delegates up for grabs.... Not as much as the 1357 delegates that were available on Super Tuesday, but its the next closest thing and is still gigantic in size and scope.
Michigan: Biden leads Sanders 29%-23%, but Bloomberg who has dropped out and endorsed Biden held 11% in recent days, which mostly will add to Biden's numbers. Warren hovering south of 7% so even if she drops out and endorses Bernie, Michigan is leaning Biden https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-6835.html
Missouri: Only available polling back in late January had Biden at 39%, Bloomberg at 14%, Warren at 9%, and Sanders at 7% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mo/missouri_democratic_primary-6930.html Given Bloombergs endorsement of Biden and the shockingly low numbers from Warren and Bernie in the state as of now, one can conclude that Missouri is leaning heavily toward Biden
Washington: Bernie does really well in the western states so a win here normally would sound expected. Last polls showed Bernie at 21% while Biden was closer to 10%, but Bloomberg had 15% in the state and has withdrawn. If Biden keeps up the momentum from the conquest of Super Tuesday, he may be able to snatch the state away from Sanders. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wa/washington_democratic_primary-7005.html Admittedly, Sanders THRASHED Hillary in Washington in 2016 (71% to 27%) so Bernie still has to be considered the frontrunner in the state regardless of how much of a boost Biden has going into the state.
Arizona: Last polls to come out of Arizona were back in fucking November so we are flying blind here. In 2016 though Hillary won the state with a healthy margin of 56% to 41% over Bernie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Late_March_and_early_April so if we follow the pattern that Biden will do well in states Hillary did well in then he could probably clinch Arizona.
Florida: This will be an ass whipping. Biden had 34% of the vote just a week ago while Sanders only had 13%. Bloomberg, at 25% support, now out of the picture will almost certainly add most of that to Bidens count by the time the primary rolls around. Biden will win this state, easily, the question is now will Sanders do shitty enough to not even hit the 15% threshhold in the state. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html
Illinois: This is a state with a lot in common with Washington in terms of how it can go. Sanders leads with 22%, but Bloomberg was at 17% while Biden was at 14%. If Biden absorbs much of Bloombergs base following his exit from the campaign, Biden could situate himself to win the state. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/il/illinois_democratic_primary-7036.html A look back at 2016 showed Hillary eeking out a win here 50% to 49%, Bernies odds of winning this state are better than his odds at winning others
Ohio: The last big state up for grabs before late March is Ohio, which has only seen one poll cover the state since October https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/2020-great-lakes-poll-full-FINAL.pdf Scroll to page 12 and you see that most Ohio voters would choose Biden first with 32% of the vote, while Sanders was down near 21%. In 2016 Hillary carried the state 57% to 43%, so its forseeabe that Biden will get a win here.
Of these 7 massive states, Bernie has decent odds of winning just two of them: Illinois and Washington, and thats only under the massive assumption that Biden doesnt absorb the base Bloomberg has recently forfeited....
Biden on the other hand will almost certainly win Florida and Missouri, and has decent odds of also carrying Ohio and Michigan.
The biggest tossups at the moment are Arizona (due to the complete lack of polling) and Illinois (looking tight) Since both candidates will likely get at least 15% in those states though any win by a razor thin margin will not provide much wiggle room for one candidate to pull away from another, since other smaller states such as Mississippi, Idaho, or even North Dakota could erode any gains made by one side.
If Bernie cant turn his campaign around and become more competitive in other states, then the states that will vote some time over the next two weeks will effectively hand Biden the nomination, due to their size, delegate count, and polling that seems to favor Biden who has just come off of a massive Super Tuesday win + consolidation of the moderate vote behind him.
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Bloomberg suspends his campaign and endorses Biden. Now the ENTIRE moderate voting bloc is united behind Biden, right before Michigan, Missouri, and Washington hold primaries on 3/10 and right after cleaning up on Super Tuesday.
Assuming Warren pulls out in the next few days, the race will now be Sanders vs Biden
gg
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I fuckin woke up laughing that Biden somehow won Massachusetts.
Him winning Minnesota was a nice surprise, but pulling off a win in Massachusetts which is Warren and Bernies backyard is just satirical
I still cant believe it
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Holy shit.
Not only did Biden SWEEP all 6 of the states I thought he would win a month ago, he ended up picking up Minnesota, Oklahoma AND Massachusetts
Warren lost her home state, finishing THIRD, and couldnt even get delegates out of California, where she got just 12.1% of the vote (15% needed to actually win delegates) or anywhere in the ENTIRE SOUTH (best performance in southern states for Warren was Oklahoma, at 13.4%)
Warren BARELY crossed the 15% mark in Minnesota, Colorado and Utah, but apart from those states and Maine, Warren struck out, only getting north of 20% of the vote in one state. (Massachusetts, her home state, where she still came in third)
Warren's campaign is somehow even more dead in the water than I thought it would be by this point last month. Whether or not she drops out within the next two days to make the prediction come true remains to be seen, but she and Bloomberg are effectively out of the race, making this a showdown between Biden and Sanders.
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Let me preface this by saying that if I was the one seeing this headline in the poltiics thread, I would have immediately dismissed it as bullshit without giving it a second thought.... If you're skeptical about the bold claim being made, I completely understand, I find it difficult to forsee happening myself
Just hear me out.
Warren and Bernie have been competing for the more liberal wing of the Dem party. I dont think anyone really disputes that. If you consider Bernie is further to the left of Warren enough to really establish himself as the representative of the far left is one thing, but at the end of the day the only two candidates who could even make an appeal to the liberal wing of the party was Sanders and Warren..... For that reason, its easy to conclude that should one drop out, they would almost certainly endorse the other. With Sanders now the frontrunner and Warren down to 4th, you could conclude that Warren would likely drop out and likely endorse Sanders
Heres the counterargument.
#1) In 2016, Warren never endorsed Bernie over Hillary.
In 2016 we had a clear 1v1 faceoff between a very centrist establishment candidate (Hillary) against a leftist outsider opponent (Bernie) in the primary. Shit, a lot of people wanted Warren to run against Hillary as the leftist representative but instead Bernie was the one who jumped in and carried the torch. You might think that because of how much the two had in common and the legitimate race between the two, Warren would have endorsed Bernie over Hillary since Warren was not campaigning, the primary was a close race, and Bernie clearly was closer to her ideologically than Hillary.... But Warren never endorsed Bernie...... Warren waited until the race was practically over before endorsing Hillary, so even though Warren offered high praise for Bernie all throughout the campaign, she still endorsed Hillary instead.
Maybe though she just knew Hillary would win, or that it was more important to unite behind whichever candidate won to defeat Trump in the general election. Fair theory, fair conclusion.
#2) Following this election, Warren's political career will likely be capped/over thanks to Sanders
In 2018, Warren handily won reelection to the Senate in Massachusetts by an almost 2 to 1 margin. While her Senate term doesnt expire until 2024, right when the next presidential election would be taking place, at that point she would be 74 years old. While the oldest current senator is Dianne Feinstein from California (86 years old), the ability of ANY candidate to win votes in a presidential contest at that age would become a stark problem that would be borderline impossible to overcome..... If Trump loses in 2020 and a Dem takes the White House in 2020, then the next opening for Dems to jump in would be 2028, where Warren would be approaching 80 if she tried running then.
To summarize, this election and this run for President was arguably Warren's last good shot where she had decent odds to actually win the nomination. Assuming she doesnt win at this point, she will not get a better opportunity to win in the future and will be relegated to being a Senator for the remainder of her career barring a VP selection of some sort. If this is the end of the road for a run for president, which it very well appears to be, then SANDERS would be the one most responsible. Not Biden, not Hillary, not the DNC, not the media or some sort of scandal or flip-flop on a policy issue, it would be Sanders. Sanders has flat out eaten her base of support and united the progressive wing of the party behind himself and away from Warren..... If Warren is salty enough at missing out on her shot to be President thanks to Sanders taking over her base, she could endorse a more moderate candidate out of spite.
Maybe though she is not that type of person. Maybe she wouldnt sink to that level over something as petty as spite, that being president was not the only thing in the world she cared about, and losing because Sanders took her base wont upset her in the long term. Fair theory, fair conclusion.
#3) Bernie and Warren have butted heads in the past.
If you watched that last shit-slinging of a Dem debate, 3 things happened. #1, everyone was yelling. #2, Bloomberg sucked a fat dick. #3, Warren was firing shots at EVERYONE, including Bernie. Warren has shifted to total war in the campaign in just about every stage, and that has included against Bernie who is the closest ideological comparison to her in the race.
- She has lumped Bernie together with Biden and Bloomberg in ads for her campaign as "politicians and billionaires won't cut it"
- She has claimed that Bernie "consistently calls for things he fails to get done"
- She has infamously claimed that Bernie told her "A woman cannot defeat Donald Trump" which Bernie fiercely denies
- She has pledged to fight all the way to the convention, ignoring calls to drop out and endorse Sanders to unite the progressive wing
- Theres the infamous debate moment where Sanders went for a handshake at a debate and Warren refused
- Staffers on both Sanders and Warren's campaigns haev complained over dirty tactics used by the other side
If the competing shots between Sanders and Warren is more then just political chess-moves to try to win the progressive base of the party, the two may have at some point crossed the line from being supposed allies with much in common to being any other rival in the Dem primary. If thats the case and that line has supposedly been crossed, then Warren would not owe any allegiance to Bernie just because they are ideologically similar. If the campaign has really left its mark, Warren may endorse Biden or another candidate over Bernie if the strategic benefits in doing so outweigh the benefits of uniting the progressive base behind the best option.
Maybe this is just part of campaigning for president and that these spats and sparring will not leave their mark. Maybe Warren will be able to forgive all of this and still stands firmly with Sanders if she cant represent the progressive wing herself. Fair theory, fair conclusion
#4) Warren's interest in beating Trump may, well, trump her interest in supporting the next ideological candidate
The predominant fact of Dem primary is that voters care more about selecting a candidate best able to beat Donald Trump in a general election than it is to select a candidate that most closely represents ones political beliefs.... While more candidates than ever have run for the nomination and represent many different political stances, in this primary voters just want someone who can beat Trump...... While Biden's position of appealing to centrist and undecided voters unsatisfied with Trump is a pretty easy sell to make, Bernies position of beating Trump by exciting non-voters to come out and support his candidacy is by default riskier. It is just as likely that someone who likes Sanders as a candidate supports him as it is for a centrist and undecided voter to not like Sanders and instead just tough it out with Trump for the last 4 years..... A majority of Dems care more about having someone capable of beating Trump then it is voting for someone that shares their values, we have to consider that Elizabeth Warren might be one of them.
If Warren figures that helping Biden to beat Trump will likely be more successful than if she decided to help Sanders to beat Trump, then she would go with Biden.
She did the same thing in 2016 with Hillary over Bernie
#5 Biden might respect Warren as a VP candidate more than Bernie would respect Warren.
Biden sat out the race in 2016 despite calls for him to enter the race, though he did toy with the idea of entering the race while the opportunity was present. While deciding to jump in or not, Biden made some calls to talk to people about whether or not they would support his campaign over Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. One of the people he turned to, and was actively considering having as his VP on the ticket, happened to be Elizabeth Warren.
Biden values Warren, both her voice and her stances, to the point that from the get-go he was considering having Warren be his VP on a 2016 ticket. Warren's hard stance against Wall Street and subsequent legislation on banking regulations really caught Biden's eye when he considered entering the race, and he actively sought out Warren as a possible VP candidate to see if it was worth running in 2016. based on reports, Warren liked the idea but was still skeptical since Hillary effectively had the moderate/centrist vote on lockdown, leaving Biden with a very difficult path to even winning the nomination to begin with. Even when Hillary was campaigning people thought Warren should VP for her, since it would supposedly unite the moderates and progressives in the Dem party behind one ticket.... Warren liked THAT idea too because she figured it would give her some leverage in pulling Hillary more to the left on certain issues in order to secure her agreement to be VP.
Biden values Warren, and Warren could strategically pull Biden to the left on certain issues if she was VP while also uniting the party behind one ticket to beat Trump.
Thats not the case with Sanders though. If Sanders was the nominee and Warren his VP, then she doesnt get to have much of a say at all. Sanders as the face of the progressive movement would be able to go with whichever policy or agenda he feels is right since voters have made him the representative of the progressive faction in the first place. Sure, Warren would likely agree with Bernie's policies more regularly than Biden, but thats assuming that they get to the White House in the first place. Preaching purely to the left wing faction of the base to drive out fanatical levels of support is what Bernie is basing his entire argument that he can beat Trump on. Thats a very risky strategy that could very well fall short considering how conservative many swing states in the country are and will be..... Biden's strategy on the other hand would be to appeal to centrist and moderate voters more easily swayed away from Trump while Warren becomes the advocate for the progressive faction in an administration, which has better odds of succeeding just from the nature of politics in America.
To summarize, Warren might endorse Biden over Bernie even though Bernie is ideologically closer to her.
1 - Warren went strategy over ideology in 2016 by endorsing Hillary over Bernie
2 - Her political future as of right now appears to have hit its ceiling thanks predominantly to Bernie
3 - Warren and Bernie have not gotten along recently in the campaign
4 - If Warren's biggest goal is to defeat Trump, Warren may again put strategy over Ideology and endorse Biden over Sanders in 2020
5 - Warren would have more of a voice and boost chances of winning as Biden's VP compared to being Sanders' VP
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@ethang5
@HistoryBuff
In fairness to both sides, the impeachment trial lasted from Dec 18th to Feb 5th..... During that time, Warren stayed at almost exactly 15% the whole way through and didnt budge an inch either up or down in polling https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
It seems that a lot of the damage to her campaign happened well before the trial began, where she slid from frontrunner status of 27% down to 14% by late November, a full 3 weeks before the trial even began. While the trial might have robbed her the opportunity to bounce back before the Iowa Caucuses began (Feb 3rd), it certainly didnt run her campaign into the ground like I thought it could.
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@skittlez09
It's kinda sad, I would've enjoyed being alive for the first gay president and the first gentleman.
There were a lot of aspects of Buttigieg that I liked but one of my biggest issues is that he has a pretty big lack of experience to be running for president considering all he has been is a Mayor of South Bend Indiana..... He would probably make a good cabinet pick or maybe even VP or a Senator but I could never really see him as a president.
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Klobuchar drops out, endorses Biden.
Buttigieg dropping out a day earlier also goes on to endorse Biden.
With Gabbard Irrelevant and Bloomberg still trying to buy Super Tuesday for himself, now only Warren is the odd candidate out. Too far to the left to appeal to moderates but not enough to eat into any of Bernie's base, Warren is in a very precarious situation where she could be forced out following Super Tuesday where she is struggling to get any signature win. Even Massachusetts is leaning towards Sanders as he campaigns there in Warren's own backyard.
If Bloomberg falters on Super Tuesday and finishes third behind Biden and Sanders in terms of delegates won, he could be forced out as well or at least decide to save himself a couple hundred million dollars by withdrawing while its still pretty early.
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@HistoryBuff
It remains to seen who, if anyone, this actually helps.
Oh I dont expect any sort of huge change in distance between Sanders and Biden just because Buttigieg dropped out. My main emphasis is now that Buttigieg is out, the pressure is substantially higher on Gabbard, Warren, and now Klobuchar to also pull out.
Prior to this point all of them could have made the argument that lasting until the convention which would probably be contested could put them in a position to end up as the nominee, but with Buttigieg pulling the plug that whole narrative is bunk and the lesser campaigns will have to find another excuse to stay in the race when the odds are clearly, if not definitively against them.
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Following Biden's resounding victory in SC, the narrative for the Dem nomination is that it is now a two person race between front runner Bernie Sanders, and in second place now Joe Biden, with everyone else behind them following little to no success. With Super Tuesday just a few days away, pressure was heating up on other candidates to drop out with the hopes of avoiding a contested convention....
Steyer dropped out first, which could be predicted since he never had a win or a close finish in any state.
But then Buttigieg dropped out next, who had beaten Sanders in Iowa. After failing to hit 15% and win any delegates in Nevada or South Carolina, his prospects didnt look too good going into Super Tuesday either. Still, he was in better shape than Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren going into Super Tuesday, so his withdrawal from the race has ramped up pressure on those candidates to do the same.... After Sanders and Biden, now only Bloomberg can really justify remaining a candidate in the race since he polls decently in national polls, in spite of being shat on in repeated debates hes qualified for.
With Buttigieg out and Klobuchar doing far worse, the moderate bloc of Dem voters are now effectively split between Biden and Bloomberg, while the more liberal bloc of the Dem party predominantly supporting Sanders while a few still cling to Warren.
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@Vader
Its not about the pull that Clint Eastwood has, its about the fact that there is a Dem frontrunner who unlike everyone else in the race has shown they can actually flip Trump supporters to their cause, and notable ones that you wouldnt expect to flip as well.
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Anyone who knows me or has clicked on my threads in the past knows that I support Biden. I like Klobuchar probably the most, but she doesnt have a chance of winning, Biden has that. Buttigieg I dont like his experience level, Warren is too liberal for me, Sanders is even further then that, and Steyer is a billionaire trying to buy the nomination and failing at it badly. Bloomberg I dont like. Same thing with Steyer, hes a billionaire just trying to buy the nomination with about the same amount of experience as Buttigieg since both were mayors. In a contested nomination, if Bloomberg beats out Bernie and he comes in second, half the base would fucking riot. Sanders supporters didnt like Hillary, I know they would hate Bloombergs fucking guts, cause I do for really fuckin things up for Biden
But then this came out, which made me really have to think about things: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/clint-eastwood-2020-election-just-150921450.html
Clint Eastwood, the guy who was so much against Obama that he went to the 2012 GOP convention and became the star of the show, who went on to support Trump and still even sticks up for some of the things Trump does, wants Bloomberg to win the whole presidency. Not the Dem nomination, the whole Presidency..... Do you have any idea, how fuckin hard it is to flip an openly conservative actor in Hollywood? James Woods and Tim Allen's entire claim to relevancy these days are their undying conservative leanings, and Eastwood was kind of in their camp albeit more reserved. So for ANY candidate of the Democratic party to be able to convince a high profile conservative like Eastwood to flip from TRUMP to the other side, that is really something.
For those of you skeptical of Eastwoods mental state, RCP polling also shows that the two best candidates in a 1v1 vs Trump is Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg, at 4.8, 4.6, and 4.6 respectively..... Biden hasnt convinced any conservatives to openly flip from Trump to him, and Sanders is building his support entirely off of trying to appeal to those already in the Dem base. Furthermore, Biden's campaign has inherent flaws to it as we can see from bad performances in the first two states, while Sanders' reliance on increased turnout might not pan out since Dem turnout in the primaries is lower than what was projected
300,000 expected votes turned out to be about 173,000. If Biden cant hold on to the votes he thinks he has, and Sanders cant expand his base past the coalition he already got in 2016, then if the goal is to oust Donald Trump from the White House, Bloomberg unfortunately might be the best candidate for the job
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@HistoryBuff
She tried to straddle the line between the two camps and lost most of both
Yeah she definitely pulled a 2012 Newt Gingrich after shifting on her healthcare stance
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@HistoryBuff
Oh I dont think Klobuchar will have a chance to win at all either, barring some sort of unprecedented surge on Super Tuesday.... Her relevance as a candidate lies with Warren's struggles, because Warren needs every vote she can get to stay in the campaign yet Klobuchar bit off an enormous chunk in NH....
Even if Klobuchar doesnt win any state primary, if she keeps siphoning off votes from Warren just by being considered an alternative, it would doom Warren who is already struggling massively
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After a poor showing in NH, some high level supporters of Warren have conceded that she may be finished in 2020, and argue that a new factor may accelerate her exit from the race that hadn't been considered before: Amy Klobuchar.
After nearly winning 20% of the vote in NH (Klobuchar finished just shy at 19.8% compared to Warren's 9.3%) some are theorizing that Warren may be being pushed out of the liberal vote by Sanders, but also is being pushed back from the center by Klobuchar, who as a female senator like Warren is now presenting herself as a legitimate and viable candidate. A strong debate performance prior to the NH vote combined with multiple endorsements from NH newspapers may propel Klobuchar into national consideration among voters.
Considering that she got more votes in New Hampshire than Warren and Biden COMBINED, thats not a big stretch to imagine.
Buttigieg campaigned hard in Iowa and NH dumping almost everything he had into the races. There is not another race in the future where he is projected to win as of right now. If he slides hard when Nevada and South Carolina vote, but Klobuchar manages to stick around and do well, she could siphon off not only voters from Buttigieg and Biden, but also those still supporting Warren who value her for being a woman and also not being as liberal as Bernie.
Before Warren was being squeezed out of the race by Biden and Sanders, now it may end up being Klobuchar that puts the final nail in the coffin.
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@HistoryBuff
+1lol i feel like this was true of him no matter what. No one thought about him during the race. Now that he has dropped out, people are continuing to not think about him.
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@Vader
His support is the same, expect instead of a famous women running, it's 5 random clutter of people dividing the votes. Bernies are very loyal in general to him, so people who stuck with him (plus a few more) are the main voters, the rest are spread out
I am beginning to wonder if we might have a Rubio-Kasich-Jeb situation where in 2016 the three of them split the moderate vote into factions that couldnt stop other figures like Cruz or Trump from being the frontrunners..... Klobuchar pulling in 20% in NH is fucking shocking, and with Buttigieg also hitting 20% while Biden still leads moderates nationally, the three of them could end up splintering the moderate base if either of them have strong showings on Super Tuesday when like 14 states vote.
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@Vader
If Yang endorsed Bernie it would be good for him, but I am still wondering if Bernie has really expanded his base or if he's still banking on just the coalition he got from 2016
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Andrew Yang, ending his campaign after noting that he faces a shellacking in the New Hampshire Polls, is now one of the biggest ex-candidates whose endorsement of another candidate could actually carry meaning to it https://www.yahoo.com/news/yang-created-buzz-freedom-dividend-010829068.html
Prior to this point, the biggest candidate to drop out of the race was Kamala Harris, who had to pull out of the race due to financing issues and has yet to make an endorsement of her own. Yang, who peaked at 4.9 percent in national polls, never got to the level Harris did, who at one point topped 15% before sliding down to about 4.0% before dropping out..... Yang though managed to make it to Iowa at least, that deserves credit. Candidates who drop out before votes even start getting counted have nearly no weight to their endorsements later on, at least compared to those who stay in.... You think any republican gave a shit about who Rick Perry or whats-his-name from Wisconsin (Scott Walker!) endorsed in 2016? Hell no. Only candidates who actually make it SOMEWHERE into the actual vote have weight to their endorsements.
Yang, by dropping out after Iowa, has only 6 candidates ahead of him in the race: Klobuchar, and the 5 main candidates (Bllomberg, Buttigieg, Biden, Warren, and Sanders). Since the 5 of them will likely stay in the race for a while (Biden, Buttigieg and Sanders have good support, Bloomberg is a fuckin Billionaire) that leaves Yang and Klobuchar as the ones who could really help break the tie among the front runners.
Yang could go in any direction.... He might go business and endorse Bloomberg, he might support Sanders in terms of economics.... Maybe he sticks centrist and goes Biden, or makes a daring bet and go with Buttigieg.... Yangs endorsement might not move the needle much in any one direction, but unlike most people in the race at some point, his endorsement matters, and its up for grabs now that hes out of the race.
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If Biden stopped telling everyone to vote for someone else, he might be able to pull off a win.
He admittedly is starting to make me worry about that. If he has too many of those moments he could def cough up the nomination or even the general election. He's super fucking fortunate that Pete Buttigieg doesnt have a lot of high level experience and that Klobuchar isnt doing well in the polls, otherwise he might be fucked after NH this week.
Just for fun, if Sanders won the nomination, would you vote Trump or Bernie?
In pure honesty, if that had been the matchup in 2016 I wouldnt have even voted..... Both candidates to me represent such extremes within the two parties that as a result, neither of them would be able to pass any sort of legislation of substantial importance through Congress that couldnt be immediately nullified by the next president after them..... The GOP wouldnt approve anything Bernie wants, Dems fight Trump on just about everything he wants. It would be partisan gridlock no matter which you pick, so in 2016 I wouldnt have even voted for one and maybe just stayed home.
Now though, as a moderate democrat, I would lean Bernie. The same partisan gridlock still applies to domestic legislation either way, but the tiebreaker is foreign policy...... Trump is very inconsistent and arguably haphazard with how he levies tariffs to other countries and blocs, to the point that even threats of trade tariffs dont have much effect since one or two weeks later Trump could very much change his mind about things and not follow through.... Bernie I imagine would be more consistent and follow through better, where if he made threats of trade tariffs to other countries he would certainly back it up and not change his mind on a whim after about a week.
Conduct in foreign policy is literally the only tiebreaker though. Policy wise theyre both down shit creek without a paddle.
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Following the fuckfest that was Iowa where the clear winners were Bernie, Buttigieg, and Paper Ballots, the next four contests are as follows:
1 - New Hampshire (2/11)
2 - Nevada (2/22)
3 - South Carolina (2/29)
4 - Super Tuesday (3/3)
New Hampshire looks like it will end up being a clean version of what Iowa was supposed to be, with Bernie and Buttigieg being the winners while Warren and Biden finish in the second tier. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html This shouldnt come as a surprise since Sanders has pulled away in the state since Jan 23rd, though Buttigieg leapfrogging Biden thanks to his win in Iowa is noticeable and spells problems for any other candidate looking for a bounce back. If Buttigieg manages to pull off a clean win there, he could make a legitimate case as the candidate for moderate centrists and really challenge Biden
Nevada is now a tossup, only because Bob Steyer being the fuckstick he is by trying to buy the nomination himself now has 10% support in the state which can really fuck with the rest of the candidates who actually have a shot at winning the nomination. Whether they will flake from Steyer following a drubbing in NH remains to be seen, but with 2-4 points separating Sanders and Biden in the state that doesnt vote for another 2 weeks, its anyones ball game there
South Carolina Will be the definitive early win Biden needs to legitimize his candidacy, he can thank the large African American vote in the state for that much. Whether he wins by a smidge or by a massive margin could determine the validity of his campaign going into the next stretch of the primaries, but he will almost certainly be able to get a W in SC barring some sort of massive fuckup by his part
Super Tuesday........ Here's where shit really gets interesting...... With Super Tuesday taking place just 4 days after SC, a lot of candidates may be willing to surrender the state to Biden and campaign elsewhere to pull out some upsets. FOURTEEN states are up for grabs, some of which are major prizes
Alabama
Arkansas
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Some of these states will almost not even be competitive..... Based on polling and whether or not its someones home state, I reorganized the states listed above into groups based on who they are likely to be won by bases on polling, and which are genuine tossups
North Carolina = Likely Biden https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/north-carolina/
Texas = Likely Biden, Southern State and he polls well https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/texas/
Virginia = Likely Biden, Southern State and he polls well https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/virginia/
Alabama = Likely Biden, Southern State
Arkansas = Likely Biden, Southern State
Tennessee = Likely Biden, Southern State
Massachusetts = Likely Warren, its her home state
Utah = Likely Sanders, recent poll gives him 12 point lead https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/utah/
Vermont = Likely Sanders, it's his home state
Colorado = Likely Sanders. No polling available but Sanders carried the state by 20 points against Hillary during the 2016 primary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday
Maine = Tossup between Biden, Bernie, and Warren. All three within 5 points of each other https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/maine/
Minnesota = Complete Tossup. Klobuchar's home state but there's no polling available and Bernie won hard there in 2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday
Oklahoma = Tossup, no polling available but sanders won it 52%-42% in 2016 so he might have an edge there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday
With Warren likely not going to pull out a surprise win in either New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina, her big moment will have to come in some of the many states up for grabs on super Tuesday.... But even then, the only ones that look like they can be clinched are Maine, Minnesota, and Oklahoma..... A big win in Maine or Oklahoma isnt going to convince anyone that Warren at this stage can hang in the rest of the primaries against Biden or Sanders, and Minnesota might not even be available given the strength of Bernie's performance in the state last time in 2016 + Klobuchar having it be her home state, which eliminates virtually all of Warrens options....
Barring an almost record collection of close second place finishes in the states above, Warren won't be able to justify staying in the race after Super Tuesday since there isnt a single state she can safely or even aggressively target to win. Biden has the Southern states, Sanders polls very well in three others, and on top of that Buttigieg may worm his way into the race if he can translate strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire into national strength.
With Super Tuesday less than a month away (25 days), Warren could very well be pushed out of the nomination within a month (30.5 days) and have to concede.... Even endorsements from the dropping out of other lesser candidates like Yang, Bloomberg, Tulsi, and Steyer might not be enough to salvage operations
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@Discipulus_Didicit
A pack of condoms at the drugstore sounds over a trillion dollars cheaper.
FR
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The only way at this point that any sort of peace plan involving a two-state solution is reached is if the US grants heavy concessions to Palestine over Israel.
A lot of western Europe supports the peace plans the US puts forwards mainly because they dont want to damage their relations with the US. Any plan that has even a remote amount of sense to it will be agreed upon by Germany, France, UK, etc if the US backs it. This is not the case for many Arab nations, Russia and China, or basically any other part of the world that actually recognizes Palestine's existence (Which the US does not). Those nations not in western Europe can look at proposed peace plans and vote however they feel without having to worry about repercussions of damaged relations with the US, and since most proposals have been ass-backwards theyve more often then not opposed them.
If the US proposed a pretty pro-palestine deal though, western european nations would back it once more, but then so would Russia and China and the entire Arab world. Even if Israel didnt like the proposal, they would literally be the only ones in the world that would oppose it, so the pressure to make concessions for the sake of not being hated worldwide could push them to accept the deal.
It wouldnt even have to be 100% in favor of Palestine either. Letting Israel keep the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights (which they rightfully won since Egypt and Syria shit the bed trying to go against Israel in the 6 day war), in addition to putting blame for the outbreak of the war on Egypt could be enough concessions to Israel to not view the plan as a total reversal and convince them to accept the plan even if they have to make territorial concessions back to Palestine.
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The Arab Spring movement which caused the insurrection in the first place combined with the NATO enforced no fly zone did way more to cause Libya to fall into a shitshow then anything Obama did
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The Arab Spring movement which caused the insurrection in the first place combined with the NATO enforced no fly zone did way more to cause Libya to fall into a shitshow then anything Obama did
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@DapperMack
What exactly would you use for the Weekly Stupid that has nothing to do with cringey, shallow banter from 15 year old males?
Just glancing through either the political forums or religious forums was enough to carry the show when it aired, I could probably just do that again
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@SirAnonymous
Considering that she has been in the top 3 of the crowded Dem primary for a vast majority of the campaign, Warren definitely has the potential to stay in the race longer than a majority of the field... Trailing Sanders by 7 points nationally after being ahead of Bernie by 12 points in October also doesnt make it impossible for her to bounce back either, but with Hillary singling out Sanders in particular, it does become a lot harder now than it was just days earlierI think that Warren was going down anyway, though.
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Vote me for president and Ill bring back the Weekly Stupid
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Ill keep this brief
1) Warren and Sanders are competing for the same bloc of liberal voters in the Dem primary, with Biden courting the moderates in his camp. Anyone who has basic understanding of the candidates can observe that.
2) In order for one of them (Sanders or Warren) to be the representative of the liberal faction of the Dem party, one of them has to beat out the other, and do so quickly to have any chance at beating Biden in the second half of the primary season
3) Hillary Clinton, the polar opposite of what the liberal faction likes and in fact rather loathe due to 2016, just heavily criticized Bernie, calling him unlikable, without allies in Congress, etc.
4) Since Hillary is the virtual representation of a democratic centrist career politician, criticism from her is effectively a certification of being a 'radical outsider' which Warren fans and Sanders fans are drawn towards.
Conclusion:
With Warren and Sanders competing to be the 'radical outsider' among the liberal base, and with Hillary Clinton herself singling out Sanders for criticism, she has effectively made Sanders THE outsider candidate, which he could use to cement his claim that he is the forebearer of the liberal faction of the party, since the spokesperson (one of them at least) of the center of the party identified him as the person to be aware of.
This, combined with AOC's previous endorsement and Warrens continued slide in numbers, should give Sanders a major boost in cementing his claim as #2 in the Dem primary
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Bernie and Warren supporters were going to inevitably come to a clash sooner or later
Warren supporters think that she has the most well thought out policy proposals and can unite both the liberal and moderate wings of the party behind her.
Sanders supporters think that he is the true flag-bearer of the liberal wing of the party who had the balls to campaign against Hillary for the primary in 2016 while Warren didnt and ended up endorsing Hillary at the end anyways.
With Buttigieg sliding combined with Bloomberg and Steyer polling in the 5%'s, this is going to crack open the race for Biden who already has old people, black voters, and the southern states effectively on lockdown in his corner.
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Iraq was fucked the moment we tried to have the country survive on its own with a Shia/Sunni/Kurdish mix rather then splinter the country into three along sectarian lines..... The only reason it stayed together for as long as it did without internal strife was because Saddam was a big enough of a dickbag to put fear into the hearts of anyone who opposed him, regardless of religious affiliation... Now though with Saddam gone, the three groups just try to vie for as much power as they can get, doing so by fucking over the other two at their earliest convenience.
Since the US has no desire to force Iraq to remain together indefinitely, and Iran not having any capacity to do so either despite being fucking right next door, Iraq will find its own way to devolve into a shitfest comparable to Somalia..... Corruption, military coups, siphoning off of resources. All the ingredients are there for Iraq to tear itself into pieces and be a no-go zone on travel maps until 2040, its now just a matter of time.
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Is there a particular reason why defense spending goes from $520 Billion in 2020 up to $1.44 Trillion by 2033? If the goal is to reduce or eliminate the debt in 8 years, I fail to see how nearly tripling military spending helps with that
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For what its worth, Secretary of State was apparently the one who pushed hard for the drone strike on the Iranian General, rather then this being something driven by Trump himself. Seeing as how even GOP Senators are inclined towards war-powers resolutions to limit Presidential ability to launch an attack, Pompeo might be in very hot water right now since the supposed 'tough on terror' act has backfired right into Trump in the form of Congress considering limiting presidential power
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@Swagnarok
Thats probably the smartest thing they could have done tbh. As costly and long as a US-Iran war would be, nobody suspects that Iran would be capable of withstanding US forces for very long before the regime capitulates, so responding and not escalating is def the best move for themIn short, this was intended to save face without escalating, and also to send a warning of the damage they're capable of inflicting.
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@Username
If there are no US casualties in the missile attacks then we're about 80% clear towards returning to normal.... If some poor soldier or two does happen to be killed, then its a 50-50 crapshoot if things escalate further or not.
If more then 3 soldiers are killed then its over. Trump will counter respond with something bigger and then everything gets ultra-fucked.
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Tit-for-tat right now so we're technically even.... If we respond with sanctions then we can still probably return to whatever the fuck was considered 'normal' between US-Iran relations. Anything more than sanctions though will def invite some sort of counter response.
Now we wait :/
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Q1: Should the death penalty exist for any crimes?
Yes. Absolutely.
Q2: If your answer to Q1 is Yes, to what crimes?
- Intentional Murder (First degree, second degree)
- Rape (If its clear the rapist had the intent to take advantage of someone)
- Killing ones own children due to negligence or gross incompetence (Vegans who have their kid starve to death by trying to give them a vegan diet, also parents who try to cure diseases by prayer rather then going to a fucking doctor)
- Gross corruption
Still on the fence of whether or not women who fabricate rape charges should receive the death penalty since rapists imo deserve the death penalty, and other women who lie about being raped harms the credibility of others who actually are raped, which arguably can be just as bad or maybe even worse then rape itself
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A war certainly wont break out but the odds of other events taking place that lead to a war possibly breaking out just jumped, and THATS the concerning thing here..... The top Iranian general gets hit with a drone strike, Iran gives more funding to Hezbollah or targets US diplomats in the Middle East in retaliation, a handful of high ranking US diplomats are killed or maybe even taken hostage. Had we done this to a North Korean General a war probably would have broken out, we're just fortunate that Iran is about two tiers more sensible than NK otherwise the shit would have really hit the fan.
Besides, Iran is currently trying to suppress a massive swelling of population protests within their own country due to economic stagnation. If we're lucky, the regime will collapse on its own without us having to even lift a finger about it. Executing their generals via drone strikes is wholly unnecessary with no immediate short term or long term benefits to anyone
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Had to think about this a little bit in terms of ranking these but here goes
1) Climate Change: A number of policies meant to curb greenhouse gas emission and restrict pollution in general, I would be okay with a small CO2 tax
2) Foreign Policy: Getting the fuck out of the Middle East, pulling troops out of Saudi Arabia, distancing ourselves from Israel, stop selling weapons to anyone in the region.
Those are the top two, the next three are in the second tier
3) SENSIBLE Gun Reform (Not Beto ORourkes dipshit policies): Restricting gun sales to domestic abusers, the mentally ill, and members of hate groups, allow concealed carry for handguns in all places. Magazine restrictions arent gonna do shit.
4) Tax reformation: Current Deficit is unacceptable and unsustainable yet its clear we cant really make cuts to anything to fix this, so some sort of tax increase somewhere is necessary in addition to the elimination of loopholes. Wiping out the whole tax code and starting from scratch at this point may be the only viable option.
5) Abortion: Expand access to it for people seeking one for less than 24 weeks (the current standard I believe) but also expand access to it for people who find out late that the baby has severe deformities, some aspect that makes it affordable to keep, endangers the mothers life, etc.
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Of the last 2 noteworthy endorsements that have been made in the presidential primary, (AOC endorsing Bernie, Kerry endorsing Biden) the AOC endorsement is the only one that really held any weight to it. AOC's endorsement of Bernie was a massive statement to the more liberal faction of the Dem party that Bernie may be the true flagbearer of the faction and not Elizabeth Warren, who was polling better than Sanders at this point and is now trailing both Sanders and Biden. Kerry's endorsement meanwhile doesnt hold much weight since anyone who really valued Kerry's opinion likely would have already been a big supporter of Biden due to the extensive similarities between the two.
About a day ago though, Biden secured an endorsement that is very different from the one he received from Kerry, because unlike that one, this endorsement could actually convince voters to support Biden if they didnt do so already. https://www.courthousenews.com/biden-endorsed-by-a-leader-of-house-hispanic-caucus/
Tony Cardenas, A Democratic House Representative from California, is not really a household name by any stretch, especially compared to other House members like Pelosi or even AOC and the Squad. However, Tony Cardenas still holds more influence then about 90% of other House representatives since he is the Chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, making him the top ranking Latino in the entire Democratic Party.
Up to this point, the Hispanic vote has been pretty up for grabs. Biden does well with older while men (since he is one) and also african american voters (since he was Obama's VP). Sanders does incredibly well with youth voters (As he did in 2016) and Warren has kind of a mosh-pit of support from different groups that Sanders and Biden havent locked down.... The Hispanic vote has not been in anyone's camp up to this point, even though Julian Castro is running for president and was in Obama's cabinet in his 2nd term.
By securing Tony Cardenas's endorsement, Biden has a decently strong opportunity to increase his base of support from Hispanic voters since Cardenas for the most part is the highest ranking Latino politician in the country. If Cardenas doesnt have national influence, his location in California does at least carry regional influence, which is still quite important since California and Nevada are the 3rd and 5th states to vote in the primaries once they begin.
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@Dr.Franklin
Sorry I havent been able to really keep rolling with this because of a new job I got that starts Jan 6
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@sadolite
That is wholly incorrect. A vote of impeachment that does not result in removal from office does not give a president a do-over. I have no idea what could even make you think that would even be a thing.And the Senate doesn't remove Trump from office, according to what I have read Trumps first term in office is nullified and he can run as President for two more terms
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