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All in all, I tried to ensure my results were accurate before revealing my hand. There's still a way they could be wrong and your miller really does somehow mess up my results, but it requires a few things to fall into place and I'm going with what's more likely.
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@WyIted
Nobodybwas bus driven. Either me or you are scum. I was already today's lynch and they would need to know you role for bus driving Mr to make sense
I don't like this dichotomy from you. I see one way this can be wrong. It's not likely, but I do think you would spend more time on mechanics than going after me if you were town.
I can also see a way in which you are scum, but you and your teammate have a plan.
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I accidentally posted that before I typed it. I don't know how, but some it posted when I hit enter. I'm no computer guy so don't @ me about it.
Anyway, as I was saying:
I may or may not be dead by next DP morning. We'll see, it depends on what play the scum team wants to make. I will take this time to go in-depth on my thoughts on Earth, Pie, and Lunatic. (After more thought as I'm typing this out, I'm reordering Earth ahead of Lunatic. Actually, I'm gonna put Lunatic below Pie after even more thought. Could go either way between those two for second, behind Earth.) I'm giving you these thoughts now so you have them.
Earth: Has done nothing all game but hide in the shadows. That pings my radar.
For Earth to be Wylted's teammate, he needed to play a role in Wylted's claim, which means he must've felt Wylted needed to claim and didn't talk Wylted out of claiming miller. That's weird, but Earth isn't the best at fake claiming in my opinion. His strength as scum lies in hiding well... his "love of coffee" secondary justification for Godot in Ace Attorney Mafia was pretty bad imo. I can see a world where Earth and Wylted ended the DP early... it relies on them making a play that will keep me alive. I will explain what I'm talking about DP3, if I am alive by then.
For Earth to be town, what I've said just needs to be false. Wylted could have self hammered to end all discussions, seeing that he was cooked. It means Earth would have looked for someone else to press and would've stated a townread on Wylted as scum. To be honest, I'm not sure. Wylted refusing to claim will still look scummy to me, and Earth's defense out of nowhere would have as well.
Pie: For Pie to be Wylted's teammate, he would have to be bussing Wylted ever since I pressed for a claim, or close to the end of DP1 when the writing was on the walls for Wylted at some point (it depends on what you see as a bus). I can see him being opportunistic last DP as well, and I can see him trying to redirect the wagon toward Earth while acknowledging Wylted behavior, while not adding a vote.
But that's where it ends. Pie is better at fake claims than Earth, and him telling Wylted to claim would mean he gave the claim to Wylted on some oversight or overthought (or he lazily approved Wylted's claim) and hard committed to bussing Wylted when no one believes him claim. But then he would've made the mistake of
directing me back to Wylted when I was waffling on him late DP1, so that doesn't really track. I think this is all a big what-if that doesn't align with reality and requires a lot of bullshit to be true. I know Pie is very capable, but this doesn't seem like a good play if he's scum.
Also, he doesn't have to read Wylted as scum in his final reads considering Greyparrot was about to be lynched anyway and there was still time to hard commit to directing town away from Wylted.
The big thing that tells me Pie is town is that he considered my point on Earth this DP. I'm thinking it may no longer be correct, but the fact that he did so when he could have kept his options open rather than going for Lunatic in my PoE tells me considering option and he's town. I also liked how he showed up to give his thoughts last DP, unlike Earth. I asl think he's putting more effort in than last game, despite his illness.
Lunatic: I felt Lunatic had the strongest case because I didn't really see a town case for him. I didn't like his response to Wylted and I last DP (I also felt it could have been scripted between he and Wylted). I also didn't like how this DP, I felt he was pulling the wagon away from Wylted (he said Wylted would appeal to mechanics as scum, but there he is, doing it).
However, this case feels completely unfair to Lunatic and I disavow it. For starters, I can see him being a little irritated with Wylted and I last DP if he felt we weren't considering his situation enough. Also, the reason for his theory about whether scum would appeal to mechanics or challenge isn't self-incriminating- it's the opposite. It's probably because it is the townie thing to do and Lunaitc sees it from his own townie POV. He's concluding that Wylted would try to blend in more as scum.
And finally, lack of a town case is easily explained by his inactivity. I do have a town case on him now though, and it's the simpler explanation for everything he's done so far.
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regardless, the reason I concluded I wasn't bus driven was because Austin visited me
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@WyIted
I obv have no way of verifying that, but that still helps my case because it's one less way my results could have been interfered with
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honestly Earth is back on the table
I can see a coordinated bus where Earth and Wylted decided to end the DP early...
I'll order it Lunatic, Earth, and Pie for contention on the teammate.
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@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Why would mharman start by asking who visited Casey? My theory is that he was planning to claim watcher or something but changed his mind and then started to shift and who visited him.
the reason I asked people who visited Casey and I was to control for factors that may have affected my results, such as a redirect or bus driver.
credit for hammering yourself I guess, but I think you turning on me was desperation... Lunatic says you would lean more into mechanics to say my results were bad rather than challenge me as scum, but I disagree.
on the mechanical note, I do have one final question for Austin: Do you have a role that can redirect actions, potentially a kill attempt?
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I’m willing to give plenty of time for discussion this DP.
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Obviously. Just clarifying the vote remains on Wylted for his death, not for info, if it wasn’t obvious enough.
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I am an insomniac/alert townie. I receive passive results on which PLAYERS visited me each night. The ability matches that of an alert townie, but Cerulean called it an insomniac. They're pretty similar so I asked Cerulean if they made a mod error before the game started.
I hinted at this here, where during my confusion about Greyparrot, I said:
"I kinda felt I was the reason for what Cerulean claimed in the OP, but maybe I’m not the only one."
... referring to this from Cerulean:
"There may be roles present in the game with names that do not match what they typically are. These might have been changed for flavor or because I'm simply used to a different name."
My album is Clouds- The Mixtape by NF. I hinted at this here, where I said:
"I picked my album cause I’ve been bumping his songs recently. He might be surprise to some of you"
The reason NF would be a surprise to some of you is because he's not J. Cole or Eminem- two artists whose lyrics I copypasted in Ace Attorney Mafia (DP2) and Paper Mario Mafia (DP1), respectively.
The justification is that NF's album features a lot of introspection. My given lyric/ability name was "Stick to my guns, I don't even flinch." I'm guessing it has something to do with not flinching making me insomniac, as Cerulean calls it.
The lyric is from this song if you want to listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fibYknUCIU4&ab_channel=NFVEVO
My results? Last night I was targeted by Austin and Wylted. This means Austin is telling the truth and Wylted is implicated in a lie.
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@AustinL0926
I visited you last night
Well, that means there was no Bus Driver involved that swapped me and Casey. And I'm not in any neighborhood with Wylted, so his "neighborizer" ability clearly wasn't redirected.
Yes, I did have a mechanical reason. Typing up my full claim now.
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@ILikePie5
True, but it could distance/distraction play. The way he just randomly came out of the woods and was like Wylted should claim set off a million alarm bells. He also has zero interactions with Wylted. They’re legitimately avoiding each other.
Nah. Earth has no reason for such a misdirect. If they have no claim ready, it's a dumb risk. Clearly they didn't. Miller looked best in the moment to Wylted because he didn't have time to find something better- all he knew was that he was unlikely to get CC'd since no one SOP claimed it. That's why he chose it.
No mafia team is putting Miller in their potential fake claims if they've spent time thinking about it. And since Wylted clearly didn't spend the time, I do not believe any teammate would have prompted Wylted to claim.
Didn’t you have issues with WF at the end of the last DP? Do you still feel that? Or what changed?
Small issues. I think he has a greater case for being town.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@AustinL0926
Did any of you visit me last night? Be truthful.
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@ILikePie5
I think Wylted's claim is bad. Especially yesterday.
Earth asked Wylted to claim last DP. I imagine they'd have a better claim ready if that was scripted; furthermore, Earth wouldn't have needed to pressure Wylted for a claim at all if their teammates.
I think Austin and Whiteflame, to a lesser extent, are town. That leaves you and Lunatic.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
@AustinL0926
Did any of you visit Casey last night?
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I really can't see Earth on a team with Wylted. If Wylted is scum, the teammate is either Pie or Lunatic.
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@WyIted
By “everything” I mean what your role is called, what it does, the justification for it being paired with Michael Jackson’s Bad album, the lyric paired, and how you used your role, if it has any active components.
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@WyIted
Tell everything or die. It might not save you anyway.
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I don’t really care. Biden will be out of office soon.
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at least it wasn’t a no lynch
Cmon please be guilty
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At least to start
Earth is high on my list, Casey, then Pie are floating near it
We’ll see on Lunatic tomorrow
Austin is town in my book. Whiteflame maybe but less so
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Honestly I wanna go for Wylted tomorrow regardless of flip
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Hopefully GPs self vote was some desperate ppl at and we got him… I wanted to give him town cred on that but I don’t know anymore
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I wanted to think more about the logical consequences of me being wrong but I don’t have the time so it’ll wait till DP2
Honestly logical consequences point to wylted or earth plus someone else if I’m wrong… prob Casey, low odds on Whiteflame
Pie and Lunatic are still around ig
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Wylted teamed with earth makes little sense. Austin is town. Casey is probably town but has been pinging my radar recently
Greyparrot earth I can see and I can see GP wylted
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VTL Wylted
I can see him on a few more teams than I can Greyparrot. That’s gonna be the tiebreaker
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@ILikePie5
He claimed Suicide Bomber as a townie lol.
That says he’s more likely to do a stupid gambit as town than he is to claim something dumb as scum.
Why not take a shot in the dark for anything other than semi miller if he’s scum?
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@Earth
Gut feelings don’t like lynching either
VTL Earth
For claim
Praying for something better because I don’t wanna pick between GP and wylted
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@Greyparrot
I’m working through my thoughts. I’m not ready to pick between you or Wylted yet, and I do have a thought that lynching either of you could be a trap
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You know what? When Wylted said Austin shouldn’t be pushing for his claim, he may have been dropping a hint to Austin that he really didn’t want to claim and was doing something.
I think claiming miller or anything similar would be really stupid as scum. I know Pie says Wylted is bad at claiming, but he can’t possibly be that bad.
The other side of the coin is that Wylted would know there’s no miller and it’d be safe, since no one SOP claimed it.
But then why be so hesitant to claim while pressure was on him? He caved once Austin told him to, but the fact that he had pressure on him and did t want to claim tells me he knew claiming what he did would look bad and wanted to avoid it… but that would mean he actually has the role he’s claiming.
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referring to what Cerulean said here
There may be roles present in the game with names that do not match what they typically are. These might have been changed for flavor or because I'm simply used to a different name.
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It really is between Greyparrot and Wylted for me at this point.
I still don’t like how it took Greyparrot so long to give out details when he claimed from the start. I get being stubborn to Whiteflame, but I don’t know why he was so hesitant to tell me stuff, considering he voted with me on Wylted.
I also don’t get why he felt the need to tell us why he chose his album… it’s not super relevant. The Doobie Brothers sounds like a Greyparrot type of choice, but that doesn’t indicate his alignment. He could easily be scum and giving a different role for his character… it’s also kinda weird that a Tree Stump wouldn’t have everything confirmed unless the mod wants to cast suspicion around a possible mafia tree stump… but that feels like balancing more than actually making a mafia tree stump.
And according to Greyparrot now, he might not even be one, because he might not die. Maybe Cerulean has the wrong name. I kinda felt I was the reason for what Cerulean claimed in the OP, but maybe I’m not the only one.
Someone help me sort through this.
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Wylted’s break is probably over, so I dont expect him to pop in again until just before the DP ends
I still don’t know what he’s talking about yet or what gambit Austin alleges he’s trying. If it’s something related to Austin’s miller gambit from Ace Attorney, oh boy.
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