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@Cerulean
This isn't quite correct. Remember, WyIted claimed General Guy. Even if it's not a full claim, it could still be the fake claim and implicated under this logic, yes?
Not really. Keep in mind Lunatic's argument that I'm fake claiming is based on me have a PR that he's CCing. Wylted only claimed his character. What this means for my point, is that Wylted is not stealing a fake claim from me that I could use if I were scum. Therefore, only Casey could be doing so, under Lunatic's logic.
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@Cerulean
This isn't what I was calling out. It was this:Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch. (88)Because it implied to me that you thought you had a bad role/character that would get mislynched. I had a problem with it because, if you're Town, it's a big flag to Mafia saying "I can be pushed, don't nightkill me!"
ok. Works for me... I am gonna give you a solid townread
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@Cerulean
The thought of "Someone is using Mharman's OMGUS-looking push to swing a mislynch on him" has crossed my mind a couple of times, I'd be surprised if it hadn't crossed yoursI was considering voting Lunatic, but need to go back and reread to see if that actually makes sense when I'm not in the moment, so to speak.
This has crossed my mind.
But I think Lunatic CCing me would be suicide if he’s scum. He said he was aggressive enough to fake claim Miller or Hated as scum, but idk about CCing me here. That feels like aggro on a much greater level, one that I’m not convinced anyone here would try.
Plus, as disingenuous as his arguments on me are, I can at least see him tunneling me like this as town, because I’ve seen him do it before. Once again, I will cite Ace Attorney Mafia.
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@Lunatic
Why can't casey just be normal hated town, I don't understand your point?
Ofc not. It’s the confirmation bias at work again.
Let’s walk through this again.
Q1: I have pressure on me. I could outright refuse to claim, at which point town would probably still push, with you and your confirmation bus leading the way. Alternatively, I could just get it over with, to not waste town’s time. What am I gonna pick?
The latter, of course! Especially if you’ve been saying you would be scumreading me off all these things for other reasons regardless. I can’t convince you, but I can hope that the rest of town recognizes I’m town.
Q2: Let’s say I’m scum and I’ve decided to claim… should I use the fake claim Earth has generously provided, or should I claim an altered variation of it that has high chances of me being CCed?
The former, of course! Why the hell would I NOT take a safe claim, especially if I was jumping at the pressure, as you suggest. An undoctored version of Earth’s fake claim would’ve been far safer and more likely to get me out of trouble if I were mafia.
Q3: If I’m scum and not using Earth’s fake claim, what can you conclude from that?
That scum has already used their fake claim, and I needed to come up with one on my own! Which would require an implication of Casey, given that she’s the only other player who has full claimed up to this point.
Q4: Are you going to scumread a claim that initially said was preventing you from scumreading Casey?
I’ll leave you to answer that one yourself.
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@Lunatic
I will add that you also have no idea what scum has this game…
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@Lunatic
*Which would require you to scumread Casey
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@Lunatic
Holy fucking shit.
You do you realize that it’s completely plausible for Earth to give town a backup investigative and a backup protective role in this case, right? To have all that power on one player who can’t use abilities in one night would weaken town a lot, compared to a setup where all three abilities are split among town and can all be used on the same night.
Additionally, to read my claim as scummy, you’d have to believe that either Earth gave out a bastard fake claim, or that mafia already used their fake claim… which would require you to scumread Earth. Which would require you to ignore everything that made you give her a pass based on her claim.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
Forget it. I’m done defending from myself from Lunatic’s very shaky psycholoanalysis and damned if I do, damned if I don’t reasoning about whether or not I’d acknowledge an OMGUS.
Whiteflame is on me and not budging as well for… reasons I guess, and Casey wanted my claim despite townreading me.
I could give endless pushback, and I thought about outright refusing to claim. The problem with that is this is the last day of the DP and I want town to move on and find scum.
I am Bowser. I got ahold of the Star Rod, and became damn near invincible. Town JOAT- Watcher, Doctor, Cop.
It’s why I was thinking antagonists in theme split as opposed to bosses earlier; it’s also the reason why I said there was interesting townie point Cerulean had in his favor- he spotted it and told me to be careful about slipping role information… I’m assuming he saw where I said “I can think of one reason town would try really hard to avoid a mislynch, dunno if it applies to Skipper” and correctly concluded I was one such townie. He could’ve kept that observation a secret as scum, but didn’t, probably to hint to a protective role that I may need saving, because he obviously didn’t know that I am a protective role.
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@Barney
I knew you were busy, I forgot about the legal shit. Very well.
Unvote
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@whiteflame
push theories about busses
When did I do that? I refuted a conspiracy theory that Lunatic voices to Pie; that’s all I remember.
I also can't dismiss the fact that Mharman's behavior does seem a little different this game, and I can't chalk that behavioral change up to a single vote being on him.
No one is going to be the same every game. Don’t just say “he’s different”, put those differences in context.
I got into a bad read out of early DP1 paranoia, and I stuck to it for too long out of overconfidence in my reads. I then saw how stupid that was when people proved me wrong. Now I’m not entirely sure where to look next, because I clearly don’t have good reads this game.
That alone should explain everything.
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@Lunatic
I think this is a scum tell exclusive to you, based on your age, confidence level, and current ego. Just judging from things I've seen, I think it's more likely to your trying to flaunt this "imabadass" side to initmidate people away from you. You’re selling it a bit too hard though, and I don't like it.
This is a bullshit reason. If I’m not aggro enough to be on your list of people who’d fake claim miller as scum, I’m not aggro enough to do all this as scum.
If this is about the rap lyrics, go back to Ace Attorney Mafia. You were there for it. You scumread me that game (albeit for a different reason) and I turned out to be town).
And about my age and previous game. You are speaking things you know nothing of.
1. You don’t know how my mind works.
2. There is no confidence from last game that is gonna make me pull a risky near complete throw move as mafia. You could give me all the bravery in the world, and I’d have no reason to do it. In fact, I could’ve waited for town to accuse Cerulean if I wanted a mislynch on him as mafia.
3. If I had a good town game, where any should any confidence I gain go? Into my scum hunting abilities, of course. If I got overconfident, it caused me to trust a bad read way too much as town.
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@Barney
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@Cerulean
At the very least, it’ll get us something to go off of when it comes to him.
As for the Cerulean’s reasoning on Wylted… I wouldn’t say I’m a complete fan, but I don’t hate it. There’s some merit to the reasoning, but I can buy Wylted’s counterpoint.
As for Casey’s thoughts on me, I do have a tendency to stick closer to people I townread. There’s another reason for my behavior toward her.
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Hot take: We’re looking at town v town for Wylted vs Cerulean.
The reason for my opinion? I see two people who had a chance to push me hard while I was on a really stupid push, and was getting sussed by some people for it. I still am, and both have shown restraint to push me, despite how easy of a mislynch I could be.
This is a bottom line more for Cerulean than it is Wylted, but it applies to him as well.
I’m gonna go for neither wagon. I like Pie’s idea of going after Barney. He’s been riding and he’s more fluff than reads. I know he’s not been super active, but cmon man. I feel like what he’s posted is underwhelming, even for what I would expect. Recently all he did was update some list… he can update that but not say anything more about what he’s seeing? Even with his claims about how he’s generally less active DP1 because of how his mind works, I see almost nothing. He has one very weak point on Wylted. That’s it.
VTL Barney
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Really indecisive here. I’m gonna reread the DP one more time, but I wonder about Wylted v Cerulean being town v town.
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@WyIted
@Cerulean
It would be helpful if you two told us all more about your thoughts on each other.
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@ILikePie5
I have no teams I'm gonna theorize right now. I don't really know who to scumread.
My case on Cerulean was dogshit. There are small things about his behavior that bother me, but each and every one of them has a townie explanation. There's also one thing he did that's nagging on me that says he's town.
I'm gonna read into him and Wylted. I thought he had a good point on Wylted, but then came Wylted's rebuttal, which is a bit better of a point imo.
If I find his push on Wylted is reasonable, I'm going to join.
If his push on Wylted is stupid, it nullifies that one townie point, and I'm back on him.
I'll let you know when I'm done reading and thinking.
As for bus theory, lol. I'm not gonna do that super risky shit as scum. Especially not DP1. This is kinda the same point I made to Lunatic: I don't care what you think of my play this game, or my play last game, or how it all might affect me. I'm not taking all the risks I'm taking right now if I am scum.
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@Lunatic
I am just trying to draw an explanation for why you would resort to making such a large "OMGUS" post while addressing its omgus and your being baited, to still allow yourself to be baited in hopes of it not looking like omgus...
The simpler explanation is that I really believed what I was saying at the time… lemme ask: Can you picture yourself, Wylted, or Pie doing what I’m doing as scum?
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My townread are gonna be Pie and Casey. My townread on Pie is still early-ish, but I’ve gotten more confident in my townread of Casey.
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@Lunatic
Yeah I’ve not been playing super consistently in my 8 years in this community… I will admit I’ve made plenty of changes to how I play this game, and still do.
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Alr, I’m not sure where to go next. I think the options are looking at Skipper or Wylted. Skipper for reasons already mentioned, and It think Cerulean does bring up a good point on Wylted. Barney, less so.
Imma wait for Pie to be done with his catch-up before I say anything more.
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@ILikePie5
I’m talking about how I’ve been playing I just after the game starts in DP1. Not everything about my play as a whole.
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@Cerulean
I guess. I’ll back off on you. I’m not fully settled on you, but there’s reasonable doubt on my case now.
Unvote
As for the smidge of towniness that gives me pause, I’ll say that something you said to me earlier was pretty towny. I guess I can see this whole thing from your perspective, too.
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@Cerulean
"Avoiding commitment" would me saying "I still don't feel amazing about Mhar, but I'll unvote for now." I was under the impression that what I said implied well enough what I thought about your posting- that it wasn't amazing, but not bad enough to lay down a case.
Ok, but why not just say the tiny case you had? This doesn’t answer that question.
The rest of your points are fine.
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Honestly I probably should hold off on team theories for a bit. I’m still trying to piece together who i should even scumread at this point
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@Cerulean
I will give you your point about how you’d behave if you were in a team with Skipper. That’s a fair one.
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@Lunatic
Nah, Mharman is a young guy I believe early twenties, and he's coming hot off a town game he did rather well in. This bolsters his confidence quite a bit I think and is leaving him feel a bit invulnerable. Speaking as someone who played like this as mafia a lot after a strong town win where I am placed as mafia next, trying to ride off the success and town reads of the last game by pushing someone super aggressively as scum in the next game. If I hadn't been in this spot before I wouldn't suspect it so much. But maybe I am wrong, I wanna see how this plays out.
This is a ridiculous point tho. If I’m overconfident because of a good town game, it would lead me to be overconfident in bad reads as town too. You seem to think my read on Cerulean is so bad, so why is this not a point in your head?
As for Casey, I would have agreed earlier that she’s kinda riding off her claim for a townread. Since then, I’ve liked how she called out Skipper, and I like how she is at least giving time to what Cerulean and I are saying.
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@WyIted
I still am gonna observe at the start of games tho, I’ll just make a first post to let town I know that’s what I’m doing.
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@WyIted
Please stop doing tha5n the first posts are always awkward but just do them.
Fine.
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@Lunatic
I was picking up on the stuff you were laying down with skipper, because I also think he was laying the noob stuff on a lil too thick. Some of the questions almost seem like he is selling it too hard (asking what "SOP" means for example, that is a fairly common piece of terminology used all over the world, almost anyone who has ever had a real job knows what a "Standard Operating Procedure" is. That and I when he was asking about the pm stuff, a lot of that felt fairly common sense to me and where he over sold it is trying to say "Earth doesn't have my discord information, so I guess I have to be town right? haha right guys? look at silly little innocent noob me hahah!"
THIS. The last sentence anyway, I don’t agree with the SoP point. That whole post about how earth doesn’t have his discord info is what pinged my bs detector.
Even qouting one of Eminem's famous diss songs against Ja rule "Bump heads" (love that song btw, hard af. Almost seems like you are trying to be a badass and intimidate people off your lynch, which if you are genuinely town, you don't need to be doing this. This bravado does much the opposite, and I say that from the perspective as someone who has used this tactic with varying success as mafia before. I don't like it, and it seemed entirely unnecessary.
As I said earlier, I can see why you didn’t like this. I got hint that there was more to Cerulean’s activity prompt on me that meets the eye (something that is true, given that he just talked about how he read into my activity), so I took it as he’s looking for a mislynch on me. I also felt like saying something back to him right away wouldn’t be a good look, so I waited until it looked like someone would at least hear me out. Of course, I interpreted that as part of his plan, when it really doesn’t have to be that complicated. So I took his whole plan as I saw it as some sort of challenge, and got ready and hyped for the Rust 1v1. I did this with Austin a few games ago, if you remember.
But yeah, I did jump the gun a little bit. I think there’s something to what I’m saying, but there are a few decent points I’ve noted. I have a few points and few questions I need answered, and I will back off on the Cerulean if the answers are good.
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@Cerulean
I checked it before I placed the vote. Mhar wasn't online at the time (approximately 16:45), but apparently was online 4 hours beforehand (12:45?), which might have been after the day started (12:35).
Bruh. It rounds down. I was offline for more than 4 hours.
Ok, so maybe I can kinda see why you’d take note of my activity then if you didn’t pick up on that the site rounds down… but one question: why conclude that’s suspicious? Some people like to observe a bit before saying anything. I’ve been doing it my last few games, with the exception of last game because everyone else else was doing it and I got annoyed by that, so I felt like I had to generate activity for me to observe back there.
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I’m go. I’m gonna poke some holes
Ignore the “I’m go.” Bad typo.
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@Cerulean
Ping, tag, whatever you call it. I forgot
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Alright, I can see a few signs Cerulean might be town, or that I’m at very least pushing on too little evidence. I’m go. I’m gonna poke some holes and see how the defense holds up before I’m certain, because so much of it looks scummy to me.
Do you think that's not good enough for a page 2 vote, less than an hour after I'd joined the game? I don't think it's unreasonable to read into activity, especially since you were online before then.
I mean I was online before the game started. I don’t see why that’s worth reading into.
This is just a guess at what I would have done, is it not? Your entire case seems to hinge on me having a master plan which you've gleaned from exactly two posts about you.
I did overstate my case a lot. You didn’t have to be thinking that far ahead. It could be as simple as “I want to get a mislynch on someone, but being committal looks scummy. Let’s hint at someone and see if town makes a case for me to parrot.”
It wasn't meant to be a reaction test of any sort. Let me lay out the thought process:1. Mharman hasn't been in thread even though I would expect him to be.2. Therefore, I'll ping him and place a vote for activity.3. Mharman's posts are so-so and not worth townreading.4. Since I don't have any major scumreads, I'll maintain the status quo (having my vote on Mharman) until something changes my mind.You made three posts from when you joined up until 68, when I said I would keep my vote on you. Can you tell me which one I should have been townreading you for?
I can follow the steps of this thought process until point 4. At that point, if I had no strong scumread, I would have unvoted.
When you keep your vote on someone after getting activity out of them, you’re implying a scumread on them. When I see that, I’m obviously going to look for reasons you might be scumreading me, to see if they make any sort of sense from a perspective that isn’t mine. All I saw was you clearly felt suspicious of no immediate activity, which means absolutely nothing and makes me think you’re looking for reasons.
It’s not that you should immediately be townreading me, it’s that leaving your vote on someone you apparently “don’t have a strong read on” is weird. I feel like this is a disingenuous point.
63 and 64 were reads posts of mediocre quality. Not obviously bad, but hedgy (note: "hedging" as in "playing both sides of a read to avoid committing to either") enough with Casey and Skipper that I didn't feel inspired to unvote.
That’s something I do to showcase my thought process, and it gives out relevant information that others could look at to weigh my conclusions, as well as any conclusions they have made or have yet to make. It also helps me keep track of my thoughts, just typing them out. I guess I can at least see how could misinterpret what I’m doing here, but it really doesn’t mean anything, especially since I’ve been doing it my last few games.
I suppose I could have said that exactly in 68, but I didn't.
So, why didn’t you? To me, it looks you were avoiding commitment more than you were apparently thinking I was.
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some points against my case kinda make
sense… I don’t know the extent of which I should put stock into those.
I’ll think about it while going about my morning
And yeah, I was a little too hyped for the epic 1v1 lol… I should stop that shit and I see why Lunatic was put off by it
and yet, I still think I have somewhat of a case. Cerulean just doesn’t look right to me. At the very least, I’m gonna question some of the points in the defense
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I’ll think more on him tmrw
I need sleep and I prolly shouldn’t have stayed up this late this time
Gn yall
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I know Skipper already looks better than every noob I’ve ever seen and is probably capable of telling guys all we want to hear, but wow it is getting g harder to scumread him after he says stuff like that
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@Casey_Risk
I feel similarly. Banana and Owen were both pretty clearly noob town in their first games. Skipper is clearly a noob, but he's not obviously noob town or noob scum, so I don't really know how to feel about him.
Fair. That’s why he’s not my highest priority right now
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@Casey_Risk
That's a much better point imo. On reread, that's the one thing I really don't like coming from Cerulean.
Btw, this was the point I was making earlier. I may have worded in a way that made it hard to understand… my b if that’s the case
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@Casey_Risk
On Skipper and Cerulean?
Well, what I said. Your thoughts on him have some merits, and I really do not like Cerulean's behavior.
So, noticing how he's accusing me (in the same post you called out) and how Cerulean seemed to be doing a similar subtle accusation in his reply to me earlier, I established a link in their behavior, meaning potential collusion. The logic pipeline is essentially Cerulean -> Skipper for me.
I did however, make note of the fact that Skipper could be town conditioned to overread into me as Cerulean wants, or he could be a teammate sent by Cerulean if he saw no townie was gonna do it. At the time I believed the latter.
As for now? His recent response to you about he understands your points is kinda pointing me in the direction of the former now; nonetheless I will acknowledge that your original case on him does have some points. I guess I'll say he's up in the air for me after that.
One thing: Sometimes I like to think about possible scum team theories and how they fit into what I'm observing. It helps me figure things out, and it's how I got pointed in Whiteflame's direction last game.
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@Casey_Risk
I'm gonna be honest, it feels like you're trying to buddy me here really hard. I never said anything about Cerulean, yet you say that I'm "starting to take a look at some of these things". It's like you're trying to make me think your thoughts were actually my ideas, too, when... no, they were not.
Not my point. I'm not saying they're your ideas, I'm saying that I like how you're questioning narratives the town seems to be forming. Which told me you would give a good look at my ideas, instead of immediate dismissal.
As for the 4D chess point, yeah i don't think such a plan is inconceivable, especially for an experienced mafiauniverse player. I guess you a have a bit of a point here that it is merely a possibility, but I wouldn't count out the idea. What about his behavior looks legit to you? To me, it just doesn't look that real. He kept his vote one me? Why not say why? Wouldn't that still be good for a reaction test? To me, the subtlety just looks like he's hesitant to commit to saying anything. Like something self-preserving scum would do, whether they thought super hard about it, or its more subconscious/instinct.
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@Casey_Risk
I agree that calling you out for inactivity when you hadn't said anything yet is a little bit weird, but he didn't say "Mharman is less active than I suspect." It's weird that you put that in quotes when he didn't say that. What he actually said was, "For someone who was being a little pushy about getting people to join, you sure haven't bothered to show up yet. By all means, come join the thread." Personally, I read his vote as being an activity vote first and foremost. What makes you so sure it was a reaction test?
I'm paraphrasing him. I don't think this is an activity prompt, given that he doubled down on it in his one reply to me.
I'm actually saying it's not a reaction test. I'm saying he's faking one. I gave a reason for that: I just don't see the need for him to be subtle about it. He can say outright he doesn't like something about me and it'd have the same effect. The subtlety is part of the plan. He can call it a test if he gets called out, and he can wait for someone else to make a case on me... which I think he was trying to condition someone to do.
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@Skipper_Sr
Thoughts on what I said? About you and Cerulean.
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I'll add one more point: I'd be a great candidate for such a tactic. Not only can he argue precedent, but a mislynch on me would remove a threat... considering what I accomplished last game.
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I mean sure, yall can argue that being subtle enhances the effect of the reaction test, but I honestly think a straight accusation is a more honest way of conducting such a test. I think the subtlety is more of a safety net so he can play dumb if he ever gets called out.
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@Casey_Risk
Mharman, I also see you and your message and I will respond to it, but I also have the sudden desire for a midnight snack and need to run to Taco Bell before they close. I'll be back.
I haven't had Taco Bell in a while. You're tempting me here lol
Take all the time you need
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Cerulean
I want to pressure Cerulean. His logic on me is basically just "Mharman was less active than usual, I'm kinda sus." Which he doubled down on by keeping his vote on me, but refused to accuse outright.
1. It's the same terrible logic Banana had on Pie last game.
2. He has a plan behind that looks really good, even if I call it out
3. He doesn't need to be so subtle if this is a genuine reaction test.
Alr Cerulean, game on.
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@Casey_Risk
I mean, I think this conversation between Skipper and me that just started might lead us somewhere, so there's that. Feel free to weigh in on it, if you please.
Sure. I'll give you town cred for calling Skipper out on that.
As for your case on him, some of it makes sense.
The fact that he said nothing in his defense, other than reiterate that Wylted townreads him. Also the fact that his remarks do seem aggressive, albeit passive aggressive. Although I suppose we've all been doing that. Again, a lotta respect to you for having the guts to break the impasse. I should take a page out of your book. I think I will in a moment.
The only point I don't agree with is that townies can never be afraid of being mislynched. To some degree, this is correct... scum tends to invest a little bit more into defending themselves from lynches. The big thing, however, is that I can think of a good reason a townie might want to invest a lot into avoiding a mislynch. Does it apply to Skipper? Idk. I do know that I'm not willing to give noobs passes for bad logic; I learned that lesson last game... again, shoutouts to Pie for making that case on Banana.
One thing you missed though: He talks a lot about others being vague, but then does it himself. I guess we all have, but I don't get the lack of self-awareness on his part.
All in all, you have a semi-decent case.
I won't lie, though. I'm more inclined to believe it because it looks like a post one would make while working connection with... Cerulean!
Lemme apply that page I took out of your book and have the balls to say: I think he's trying to bait an OMGUS from me.
I gotta give him props for the plan, too. I OMGUSed Pie in Villainous Villains, and he saw it. So why not start with some terrible logic ("Mharman is less active than I expect")?
If I give pushback, it's OMGUS. Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch. If I say nothing, he continues to sneak diss the whole way, implying his sus on me. He can afford to wait for someone else to accuse me, and knows someone from town will eventually try to "pick up what he's putting down," because he's conditioning town to take real nice close look at me. Then, when someone makes their case on me, he gets to parrot, maybe "add to it" a little.
And if he gets called out for it by someone else? He can fall back on it being a reaction test. If I don't believe because, he doesn't need to be so subtle about such a test, or because it all seems too convenient (both of which I am alleging), he can say my pushback is irrational and spin it all back on me saying that he didn't really think I was scum until I reacted this way- he was merely testing me.
And if town is little slow to accuse me for his parrot, he can send his teammate (who is being townread by a few people) to help imply there's a case on me. It's not his first choice, but if he has to do it he has to do it.
Admittedly, I am aware he can spin one of my points back on me. I've also been hesitant to accuse until now, so what gives? Well, I was hesitant because I know if I counter-accuse, he's got what he wants. In a way, I'm giving him just that- except for the fact that someone else from town is starting to take a look at some of these things- you're kinda my hero for being the ice breaker. I'm gonna trust you.
I agree there's a case on Skipper, but I think Cerulean is more sus.
VTL Cerulean
We'd all much rather get along than fight you
Me and Hailie dance to your songs, we like you
And you don't really wanna step inside no mic booth
Come on now, you know the white boy'll bite you
I'll hurt your pride, dawg, and you know I don't like to
But I will if I have to, with syllable after
Syllable I just slap you, killin' you faster
Than you poppin' pill after little pill of them tabs
Of that shit you on, but if you want it, you got it
You'd bump this shit too, if we ain't diss you on it
But if we lock horns, we can charge harder than Busta (Green Lantern!)
We bump heads with any motherfucker that wants to (yeah)
So what's the deal, where was all the tough talk?
When I walked up to you like, "Ja, what up, dawg?"
How come you didn't say you had a problem then?
When you was standin' there with all your men, we coulda solved this then
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