Mharman

Gn yall

In short, I want the best DP2 possible, and am willing to have a mislynch DP1 to get it. I prefer a correct lynch, but really hate a no lynch.

Also, Disc’s explanation is pretty good, maybe better than mine

Understand now, Pie?

Mafia is a game of compounded knowledge. If we get poor information from DP1, we can expect to make poor decisions in DP2, and future DPs to a lesser extent. While whatever we do in DP2 gives a chance at correcting our DP1 mistakes in DP3, we will be on the back foot, and barring any significant blunders from the mafia team, every decision we makes from that point onward must be correct. Conversely, if we gain good information DP1, then we won’t be as likely to be in a bad spot come DP3.

The problem with relying too much on NP1 to gain information here is that mafia largely dictates the bulk of the information we receive from a NP- the flip. They will get to pick whoever they want out of the game, and it will either be a player whose flip gives town little relevant information, or a player who can gain town way more information in the future if they stay alive.

While mafia can influence a lynch during the day, town at least has a lot more agency over who gets eliminated when they discuss who they want lynched, and actually doing it. If we spend all day saying who we want to lynch and then lynch no one, we were all just blowing a bunch of smoke up each others’ asses. And that can make the next DP… cloudy.

We have a train, but we also have 15ish hours. Do not hammer here, you will look scummy. If we all wake up at around 7-9 in our respective tome zones, we’ll be able to gather our final thoughts and make a decision in time.

Information. I think a lack of a conclusion to this DP would be harmful to us. We’d fail to get the information from a lynch meanwhile mafia will have wiped a townie out of the pool. Sure, we’ll have night actions to look at, but mafia will have just used their own to help with their agenda. It won’t be much but a new flavor to the same discussions.

Barring something like a 3v1 MYLO, if I have the chance to lynch mafia at the risk of mislynching town, I will take it. Ideally we’d see mafia get lynched this DP so that we have their numbers reduced along with the information to along with it, but if we lynch and are wrong, at least we didn’t stand there and do nothing while the scum team dictates the flow of the game.

Sure, town has PRs they can use in the night and mafia has things they can say during the day. But the fact remains that town is strongest playing around the day phase and mafia is strongest playing around the night phase. Let’s play to our strengths.

I absolutely hate the idea of VTNLing here. I hate it far more than a mislynch.

If anyone has any more fair points about a case for Whiteflame and/or Savant being innocent, now would be a good time to let me know. Tagging them in this so they may try and strengthen their defenses.

The thing is, my mind and gut are saying two different things. My mind doesn't think their defenses are tenable, but my gut hates the prospect of lynching someone who says they can self-confirm and someone who is a claimed an un-CC'd cop. Going back to my chess analogy, I'm looking for a refutation to the move my mind likes but my gut hates. I will favor my mind in the end, but until then I don't want to cast my gut feelings away.

I do like this from Barney.

Interesting.

True, but I think he's already pretty good... he did win that last game as mafia.

Everything else you said is fair, but not really new to me.

To answer you earlier tag, Whiteflame and Savant. Had Barney in my scum pile earlier (and I still don't really like some of his behavior), but I think the cases against Whiteflame and Savant are objectively stronger. As you can see from my vote, I prefer Whiteflame.

that took forever to type

So earlier I asked y'all to think about alternative scum team theories. I hope y'all did so, because I want to hear yours and get thoughts on mine. I'm done thinking about mine. I have four alternative theories that I don't currently believe, but am thinking about. But first I want to talk more about the main theory, or the one I currently believe:

I've said it earlier, but I don't buy Whiteflame's claim. The justification makes no sense. I know Lunatic is experimenting more this game and that in the past he has said my type of analysis here is a bad idea, but I just don't see how he would put a cop in this game. Him experimenting means trying new ideas, not revisiting old ones that have failed him in the past. Even after his claim, he was still being weirdly secretive, which Disc rightfully called him out on.

As for Savant, Disc made the insinuation of a link between them earlier, and it's looking very likely. Savant has constantly been defending Whiteflame despite how scummy he is. And again at the start of the game, he made no contributions, only rebuttals to what others were saying. It doesn't just read like a fake contribution, it reads like an easy way to springboard into accusations of others; chiefly, Pie. I still don't like his defense either. In a role madness game, saying "I can be confirmed if I'm not roleblocked" is just asking for a roleblock. I think a townie would be more aware of this fact. I think it's a move to buy more time.

Earlier when I was typing out some random thoughts I had, I mentioned that I was surprised the rest of town jumped off my train so quickly. Again, I'm thrilled to not be a mislynch target, but part of me thinks it was way too easy to get them off my back. Specifically, Pie (who started the train on me) and Disc (who said he was ready to lynch me). That is the birthplace of this theory.

Starting with Pie, getting me online and pointing out my inactivity is an easy way to get town cred. Earlier I said that I know Pie, and he would let me fall inactive if he were scum, because it makes his job easier. However, so is gaining the free town cred of getting me online. The thing that really bothers me however, is his claim hunting. While I said earlier that it might have more merit than I gave it credit for, I'm still unsure. While Whiteflame's claim is quite scummy imo, in a world where he is town, Pie's behavior looks weird. Earlier he said claim hunting has no drawback whatsoever, and I'm not convinced. A mafia team can definitely still make decent fake claims if all they have to state is their type of character, and it doesn't really hurt their effort to find the strongest PRs in town either. Furthermore it provides the mafia with something to do, that doesn't really help town (again, mafia fake claims and all). Another thing that rubs me the wrong way is that he seems way too cooperative with others, and follows with what their doing, even mirroring their sentiments. It's probably just Pie being a deal maker to keep the game going and get the information he wants, but it doesn't rub me the right way. Wylted gives a list of people in his town bloc, Pie goes after everyone else. Barney starts working on claims, Pie's there to help. Wylted suggests getting a claim from me after Pie notices my inactivity, Pie goes for it. Recently, he and Disc have been on the same wavelength the whole way.

Which leads me to Disc. I've never seen someone say they were so ready to lynch someone and then back off almost immediately. He agrees with Pie on pretty much everything, which is a little unsettling, but not impossible for town. It's not much, but his connection to Pie is very strong.

For Pie, everything in this alternative theory remains the same. The difference is that Wylted is the possible teammate. Onto him.

Wylted has been erratic and hard to read all game, but I am getting a grip on what he's doing. At the start of the game, he all but claimed Grand Warden, only to play it all off like a joke. This reads like he's looking for reactions, and possibly, as Disc noted earlier, baiting someone into a counter claim. He may have doing this to look for townies, which is fine and all, if he didn't hint it being potentially investigative. In a hypothetical world where Savant-Whiteflame looks unlikely, this could also be an attempt to find the cop for NK targeting. Alternatively, he may have been looking to set up his own fake cop claim for later in the game if he wasn't CC'd, assuming there is no real cop and mafia was told by Lunatic that there isn't a cop (which I've seen Lunatic do before). As I said earlier, he worked well with Pie on a lot, establishing something of a link. Recently he's said he scumreads Pie, but that doesn't automatically mean he does. Wylted can change his mind at any second, sure, but he can also "change his mind" at any second. Besides, I've seen Pie and a teammate hard bus each other before, and this could be the beginning of a setup for it. While it was with RM last time, Wylted is the type of guy I can see working with Pie to do it again.

I've been putting a lot of faith into 420 being town, but even he is not exempt from reexamination. As I said earlier, he has hit a point where one has to question how genuine his noobslips are. I gave an anecdote about me doing the same thing in my first game as a defense. While I do stand by it, a world where I am wrong on it is the hypothetical I fear the most. Since then, he still hasn't given me any of his reads, or tried to do anything.

If he's scum, the most likely teammate would be Casey. While I've found myself agreeing with a lot of what Casey has said, I find it weird to have an anecdote where his grandma feigned ignorance to snooker a game from him, and then to turn around and say "but I don't think that's what 420's doing." Everywhere else, he still gives me town vibes, but I have no idea what he sees in 420 that would make him disregard that previous experience.

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Those are my alternative theories. All in all, these were more of a thought experiment and a way to make sure we're not missing anything, mostly so I can feel comfortable about finalizing a decision. For this reason, I want to y'all to tell me what you think about the alternative theories, and if you've had anything that's been poking at you in the back of your mind (at least what you're comfortable saying in-thread).

I will look a bit more into these alternatives before the DP ends, but for now, I'm going to stick with the Savant-Whiteflame idea. As I said earlier, it feels awkward and maybe wrong, but I still can't find a good reason why it actually is wrong. All the alternatives are here in case someone actually finds a good reason for me to be wrong.

Because of the risk reward of it all that I mentioned in an earlier post, I'm still going with Whiteflame over Savant. My vote isn't final here, but since our time is running low, I will place one on him to maybe get something going.

I want to see ur reads

Building.

Some scattered thoughts:

I haven't been a fan of claim hunting, but seeing how Whiteflame's claim was used to build a compelling case, there may be more merit to it than what I gave it credit for.

Pie's idea of claiming type of character seems ok at least.

Lynching Savant or Whiteflame feels unnatural (think of it like chess). We have a claimed cop and someone that says he can confirm himself. While it all looks fake, just the prospect of lynching them feels awkward. Me wanting to lynch them (Whiteflame first, as I feel there's far less risk involved that way) feels like wanting to play a move in chess that you've calculated and seems correct, but it's so out there that you wonder if it's the kind of blunder that you fail to see exactly why it's a blunder... and yet, because you can't find a refutation for it, you still want to play it anyway.

With that being said, it's worth looking elsewhere on the board for a starting point for the next move... instead of calculating one move and its sequences out, maybe see what patterns and themes can be found in this in-game puzzle. I mentioned the idea of alternative scum team theories earlier; I think it's time to explore some of those. I'll expand on this soon, for now I want everyone to think for a second: Among those whom you town read, is there anything they've said that bothers you, but you've pushed it away in the context of everything else they've said? If there is, look into it a bit more.

I remember a time when Lunatic (I think it was him at least) once said, that at the end of the day, we don't know what a game mod will put in their game, and it's a bad idea to guess based on their tendencies. This is noteworthy because some earlier logic I stated ignores this idea.

The rest of town was ready to lynch me earlier, but now they've almost completely backed off on me. While I'm thrilled to not a target for a mislynch right now, it feels so easy. Too easy. Something could be very amiss.

Someone (Wylted iirc) mentioned the possibility of VTNLing earlier. I don't like that idea. Just seeing any affiliation reveal, even town (although not preferred) would help me among the multiple theories I'm thinking about.

That’s all for tonight.

Okay, so I (my OCD) wanted to do another full post of updated reads on everybody, but I don’t have time this late… so I’ll give updated thoughts on 3 ppl who I think are relevant rn.

420: Still town. While I still buy that he town slipped earlier, there’s a point where one has to doubt how genuine his noobiness is. When he said he doesn’t t understand voting, he hit it.

However, i don’t think it’s scummy. Casey gave a good anecdote, but I will give my own: In my first ever game, I was town, and still faked noob townslips to avoid getting mislynched because I was afraid of it. I did this after ppl took notice of my first slip, which was genuine.

Savant: Still scum. I will give some credit for his more original thoughts as of late, but at the start of this game, his play was entirely reactionary. In his previous two games he was town and tried to direct town more than react to them. I don’t like his defense either bc it seems like a tactic to buy some extra time. 

That being said, my suspicions will have to be put on hold. Like it or not, lynching someone potentially, even if unlikely, confirmable is too risky for my tastes. I suppose we can take a one for one trade at the worst.

Whiteflame: Scum. I can’t find a good reason for him being townie. The cop claim is waaaaay too sus for me, especially him saying he can get a result tonight. That doesn’t sound like something in a Lunatic game, and I have seen Lunatic confirm to scum once that there was no cop. A hint in that direction here isn’t impossible. As pie said, the logic for being cop doesn’t match up.

Even if the unlikely is true and he’s town, I’m okay risking it here bc he’s going to be useless all game from here on out, either nked or rbed into oblivion.

I Will think more about everyone else before voting, but so far I’m down for a Whiteflame lynch. Lynching him here would also give good information on alternative scum team theories, which I think is more valuable than anything he could provide at this point on the off chance he’s not lying.

Still working on my analysis. Mostly processing the possibilities. I'll give at least something of somewhat large substance before I go to bed.

Here and analyzing. This will take a while.

Ok that’s actually it for now cy’all

Anyways, that’s gonna be it for now. That long ass post burned me out a little bit.

I have a long list of things from this DP to analyze, and I promise I will get it to later tonight, like 9 or 10 ish EST. But for now, back to being a lazy ass.

If you see me pop on and off line, don’t freak out; I’m just skimming/making a mental note of the things I should take a closer look at when I do go down that rabbit hole (again, later tonight, I promise).

I don’t understand why you want a claim from him. It’s not gonna help us find scum.

Whiteflame* I fat fingered and my phone auto corrected

I’ve been skimming/keeping tabs but not posting for a while because the game got going sooner than I expected which annoyed me and made me not wanna play for a bit… honest to God truth, I was being a lazy ass.

I was going to give some excuse about the extra time before interacting in the thread so I could observe Wylted, who is really weird and hard to read, but that’s really just something I told myself so I could continue to be a lazy ass (playing ow2 and watching random ass YT videos… there was also 4th of July stuff and my summer job, which right now consists of doing random shit for my dad (he is a small business owner) but if it was only that I would’ve been here sooner), which is what I was planning to do anyways bc I didn’t think this game would be starting so soon. Apologies.

As for claiming, I’m not a fan of it. There is no theme split, so any claim just helps mafia by sorting who has a stronger PR and who has weaker PR. All we can do is analyze is the claims to try and guess who has a character that sounds like it could be a mafia PR, which is generally unreliable in a role madness game, especially one where mafia was given hints as to what to fake claim.

There are games where town can kinda cheese around behavior analysis by looking at claims/theme split; this is not one of them. Further dives into it only distracts us from what really matters in terms of scum hunting, and gives mafia something really easy to do to make it look like they’re contributing, when they are not, in fact.

With that said, here are my off the cuff reads I got by while I was skimming:

Pie - Giga Town: Pie was first guy to ping me to try and get me in the game. I know Pie and if he were mafia, he’d want me to be as inactive as possible. He doesn’t like playing on team mafia and will take any easy advantage he can get when he rolls mafia. If he were mafia he’d be actively distracting y’all from my inactivity, not pinging me.

Savant: Lean scum. I haven’t seen much from him, but all I’ve seen him do is give rebuttals to whatever is being said. I’ll have to look back at his game history to see if he does this when town, but my initial reaction is to be suspicious. It just screams “I have nothing to offer but want to look like I’m doing something.”

Disc: Slight town. I don’t like your (or Pie’s) claim hunting on me, but at least you’re doing something outside of that- communicating your own thoughts on other topics back and forth with others. I will say this: You said claims weren’t a good idea earlier, and I give you credit for that. I understand why you want a claim from me in my specific case, but it’s still going to do more harm than good.

Wylted: Massive question mark. Not even null, just massive fudging question mark. Imagine a metronome rapidly swinging back and forth. His posting is so weird and my gut tells me it’s disingenuous..there was also some a few posts he made that got my spidey senses going, I’ll need to try and remember what they were. However, I recall him saying some things in terms of his own reads that I think are objectively correct, which I don’t think he would see if he were playing from the mafia perspective. I don’t remember exactly what they were either, again, I was skimming. I’ll go back and study his posts more than anyone else, but right now I’m more puzzled than anything else. Wylted is just… built different like that I suppose. This is also how I know I was just giving myself an excuse not to be active earlier, because I should’ve known that waiting to post wouldn’t have helped me read him.

Barney: Slight scum. A lot of his posting is just fluff. It lacks substance, and the only thing I’ve seen him say outside of that is basically that we don’t know anything at this point. Perhaps that’s true, but I don’t see a point in saying it either. Same reason as Savant, to a lesser extent. 

Whiteflame: Ever so slight town. I don’t like him going on the whole claims list thing cause it strikes me as just finding something to do without making any genuine contribution, but he did make a large ass post with his reads, which is the tiebreaker between him and Barney…. and if I’m thinking about a Savant-Barney team, White Milanese would be town by POE.

Casey: Slight town. Not much, but I like some of the things he said. They sit well with me. It’s mostly a gut thing.

420/Underdog: Hard town. I fully agree that he made a townslip.

I’m typing something out rn. It’s a long post that includes some reads, but then I realized I only had off the cuff reads on you, Pie, Savant and Wylted. So now I’m trying to quickly look through others’ post to get off the cuff reads on them, because I want to give a full list of players and my reads on all of them, as a partial list of reads feels like an incomplete post. Please be patient, I have gone full OCD at this point.

Sure

Rage bait go crazy

There are a few things that I’ve been meaning to do that I keep procrastinating on. I’ll get to them tomorrow.

Oh, politics. Thought this about NASCAR for a sec.

Also, this site needs better methods of filtering out bots. I wonder if a custom captcha-like system can be made.

AI is becoming more advanced. I wonder if dead internet theory will be the reality some day.

Pass.

I still don’t see the point of putting this in politics. 

Anyway, what’s your field?

Super Mario Maker 2 rn. Infinite Mario is awesome.

I see. Hope your pops gets well soon.

^^^

*Start working on a new mafia archive to replace the old one

1. Not for me.

2. The first thing I will do on this site over the summer is start on a new mafia archive to replace the new one.

I’ll pass.

Give me until summer starts

Bro is falling victim to all the rickrolls

Well this is one of the more interesting things I’ve seen Wylted do

It’s spelled “their,” genius.

I read this as “Ryan Preece Philosophy” for a sec and thought that meant finishing 26th every week.