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@drafterman
At no point have I argued for ending the DP "early." Early implies ending the Day Phase sooner than it should be ended. This is Lunatic's deliberate misrepresentation of my position which is now stuck in your head with his repeated use of loaded terms like "rushing."I disagree with the fundamental proposition that the Day Phase should last as long as the time allotted. So I'm not arguing that the Day Phase should end "early", I argue that the Day Phase simply doesn't need to last as long as the time given to us. That it's natural conclusion can significantly less than the time allotted. This isn't the DP ending "early" this is the DP ending "exactly when it should."
Your interpretation of what "Early" means in my post is completely wrong.
2a: before the usual or expected timeex: the train arrived early
We have an allotted time for the day phase. Ending it before then ends it "early."
That doesn't mean it is a good or bad move. That depends solely on the context. I even said I AGREE with you in this context.
What I DON'T agree with is your read on Lunatic.
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@SirAnonymous
Unless, of course, he were on a team with him.
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@SirAnonymous
Plus, if he were scum he could VERRRY easily advocate for a Skittlez lynch.
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@drafterman
It probably had to do with the fact I've grown to agree with you on ending the phase.
He just gave in. I don't think that's evidence of him being scum LOL.
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Why is Lunatic rushing for a NL? We have 2 more days to squeeze water out of this stone.
I... what? You just spent like 5 pages arguing for ending it early and now when he decides to give in finally you are SUSPICIOUS?
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@Lunatic
Ironically, if Drafterman would drop the whole "this day phase has become stupid and redundant" thing, we may actually be able to squeeze out some better scum reads.
Because of that, I continue to have D-man as a light scumread for now.
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@Lunatic
I wholly agree: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4823/post-links/203180
I would rather no lynch over mislynch, just because of the peril we are in over the LOVER situation.
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Alright. A quick post before I go to bed.
With respect to the Oromagi scumreads.... I agree with Sir that the foundations of the argument against Oro are flimsy. I think for any mafia team with more than 3 braincells between them, they would be able to see the value in either killing the lovers or waiting to make us mislynch. It's just the nature of the roles: town will expect them to be the first to go. Best to acknowledge this to prevent us from being played like violins if they do try the gambit.
As for this Drafterman vs. Lunatic crap....
I also concur with Sir:
@LunaticYou're right.@draftermanAnd you are right also.
Drafterman is right that there can be diminishing returns with a lengthy day phase, but Lunatic is ALSO right: it depends solely on how you use it.
The reasonable middle position here is that if people are tunneling onto eachother (cough cough, Lunatic and Drafterman were approaching this territory, cough cough) and just jumping on randomized wagons left and right (looking at you, Drafterman... you've been getting pretty wagoney), there are diminishing returns and either a no lynch or an educated guess lynch is in order.
Otherwise, KEEP IT GOING!
In this case? I think by pushing a sudden end to the day phase, Drafterman is actually helping to turn the day phase unproductive, either intentionally or inadvertently. It's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The thing is, because this is happening I'm actually starting to agree with him... which is strange.
On the other hand, Lunatic is holding onto the hope that we can still squeeze out better results this day phase. I agree there is the possibility, but looks like D-man isn't budging on this one.
So as unfortunate as it sounds I kind of agree that we should wrap this up soon. The question then becomes: Skittlez lynch or No lynch? I've made my opinion clear before, but Drafterman is swaying me to be willing to vote Skittlez should it be the popular option. Thoughts?
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@Lunatic
I've got some tests tomorrow I'm studying for. I'll get some posts in about the whole situation in the morning (probably another big one)
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@Intelligence_06
Ironically, it was a typo. I meant "type."
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I can text at speeds of 65-70 words per minute. I think my average falls around more of the 55 mark, though.
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@drafterman
If you believe that, can you convince me that my analysis above is wrong in some way? Am I missing something?
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THE CASE FOR NO VOTE
- Skittlez has a valid case both in favor and against him, but in my opinion, it leans in his favor. Either way, it is controversial enough to where the TOWN should not blindly assume he is either mafia or town.
- Drafterman advocates for Skittlez lynch, yet even he acknowledges that the 3 candidates are shoddy. The only reason he continues to advocate for a Skittlez lynch is to avoid diminishing returns from an extended day phase. If Drafterman wants to end the day phase, the best choice is instead a NO VOTE. Here is why:
- Ragnar rightly points out that if he is town (RECALL: the case debatably swings in favor of him being town), a lynch of Skittlez will greatly hurt town voter power, ESPECIALLY if Supa and Intel are telling the truth about their status as town lovers. If they are, mafia will no-doubt take them out next night phase which means we would have lost 3 town voters.
- Oromagi thinks it is more likely that the lovers are 1 mafia and 1 town (mostly from a balance analysis), but we can NOT be certain. As Sir cites: "YOU CANNOT DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT BALANCE WITHOUT KNOWING ALL THE ROLES. Looking at two roles and saying they can't be in the game together because that would be OP is bogus because you don't know what other roles exist that could balance it out. You simply don't know until you know what the Mafia can do and you can't know that until you kill them all."
SCENARIOS OF A SKITTLEZ LYNCH:
- 1: SKITTLEZ IS MAFIA (ESIMATED PROBABILITY: 15%)
The town defies all expectations and lucks out, as the possibility of Skittlez being mafia is only to medium-low. TOWN FAVOR.
- 2: SKITTLEZ IS TOWN & THE LOVERS ARE TOWN (ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: 55%)
ALL of the above comes to pass: Skittlez is innocent and dies, along with the 2 lovers who are inevitably killed by mafia, leaving town with low population and high chance of failure. Either that, or mafia is playing a big brained move and setting up the lovers to be mislynched one at a time while they continue to nightkill. MAFIA FAVOR.
- 3: SKITTLEZ IS TOWN & THE LOVERS ARE MAFIA (ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: 5%)
The town loses a member that is not the most valuable, but has still contributed more than usual this game. Mafia are both lovers, which means the game is horribly unbalanced in favor of TOWN.
- 4: SKITTLEZ IS TOWN & THE LOVERS ARE SPLIT MAFIA AND TOWN ?(ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: 25%)
The town loses a member that is not the most valuable, but has still contributed more than usual this game. Town thinks that at least one of the lovers are mafia, but have no way of knowing which. All the while, the mafia and townie are probably vigorously arguing in favor of their innocence and saying that it is an attempt at a mafia big brain play. STALEMATE.
VERDICT:
I estimate that there is a 55% chance of a Skittlez lynch going in favor of mafia, and I estimate a 20% chance it results in town favor. I reserve a 25% chance of it being a virtual stalemate. I don't think the risks are worth the reward with a Skittlez lynch right now.
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@Intelligence_06
I don't think you understand the objective of the mafia team.
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@oromagi
+1.
I think the best idea is to see what happens next day phase. If they're still around, I say that's a solid scum read.
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@skittlez09
With a gun to my head? You. I want to give it more time, though.
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@drafterman
Eh, not so fast. I want to at least give it until the end of today.
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ARROWVERSE MAFIA - DAY 1 - 9/22/2020 11:00 AM
- Skittlez immediately reveals he is in fact Savitar.
“hi im savitar an ive killed lots of people but deep down im just a broken guy who nobody understands. Therefore im a miller if im investigated at night ill flip guilty. I am town.”
EVIDENCE FOR:
I say:
“it lines up:"As a time remnant of Barry Allen, he was originally just as well-meaning and heroic as his other counterparts. Upon being driven away from his friends and family, derided as a "disposable hero", he decided to cope with his anguish by becoming the very monster that ruined his life, Savitar."
Skittlez says:
“Think bout it like this: millers cuz of their nature can cause a cop to prematurally out themselves by saying they got a guilty on me, revealing themselves to the mafia squad”
Ragnar says:
“I'm more likely to believe the character claim due to the no theme split.”
Skittlez says:
“i claim first dp yall should know that by now lmao”
Skittlez says:
“this wagon against me rn is pretty dumbanswer this, if i was scum why would i claim miller when its the scummiest role ever?Mafia woulda just claimed vanilla”
I say (in response to Drafterman):
“I'm not sure we can make that assumption. You're basically saying any notable trait = corresponding power role, and we just can't assume that because inevitably there will be those with character quirks and no power role.”
Lunatic says:
“Besides the time I claimed miller and got instantly CC'ed (yet still some how managed to pull it off for some reason) when is the last time you have seen someone on dart claim miller when they were scum? It's literally one of the ballsiest things to fake as scum, because most games tend to have them and it assumes there is a cop as a prime investigative role so there's a million ways it can backfire.All that aside, skittlez isn't big brained enough to pull off a dp1 miller claim. He is kind of like a more mild version of grey parrot, and frequently claims pretty early. I'll reconsider if he starts acting behaviorally scummy, but I do not see enough merit to lynch him because his description seems a little weird. And if it's because his character is "bad" we should discount that immediately, as the mod said there isn't a theme split.”
Lunatic says:
“Why exactly? I thought his defense of himself was pretty townie. Skittlez didn't even try to defend himself as scum in stormlight, but when I was on him for bandwagoning in naruto, it was like 99% of his posts were just to defend himself as town. Defensiveness for him is kind of a town tell.”
EVIDENCE AGAINST:
Ragnar says:
“However, as someone who dislikes Emo Barry (his ex-girlfriend didn't want to go poly, so he decides to murder her...) I think Skittlez09 is more likely an investigative role, given that he was largely defined by reading Barry's mind to know what he was doing.Also, no theme split. This intuitively harms the credibility of someone claiming to be a Miller for being a villain with a heart of gold.”
Drafterman says:
“Not sure about the show but in the comics he literat had a ninja cult. Lol”
Drafterman says:
“I'm not analyzing theme. I'm contrasting his role with the justification. My justification pretty much explicitly defines my role (I did X, therefore I am an X).His doesn't line up (He did X, therefore he is a Y)If his role says he kills, then I consider that a strong indicator that he is a killing role.”
Ragnar says:
“He's evil but with a heart of gold, doesn't hold to me since we can have villains be town and still be investigated as town. Further, the character isn't misunderstood, he went on a murder spree over being friend zoned by his ex; that people don't like him for that, doesn't mean he's misunderstood, it means he wants to whine about the consequences of people understanding him all too well.”
VERDICT: I’m inclined to believe Skittlez, but we should reserve the right to lynch if we have no other leads by the end of the day phase.
- Intelligence notably immediately jumps on board a Skittlez lynch.
Upon being called out, he says:
“So basically what happened is that I tried to VTL skittlez first and somehow, when I was wandering, drafterman or someone posted the exact same vtl. It is no wagon at all. Coincidence yes.”
- Intelligence also tries to expose Drafterman.
“Drafterman is a doublevoter. when him and I voted for skittlez it shows 3/5.”
VERDICT: Slight scum read, or a bad townie. Leaning the latter due to Supadudz.
- Drafterman released pressure on Skittlez after Lunatic’s post, claiming the main purpose was information gathering.
Supa seems to believe him:
“I lean town on Drafter. He hasn't played in games with Intel, Chris, so he has no idea how to analyze their behaviors. He is using his own logic with metas to determine how to think, which leads me to believe that he is a town.”
Lunatic is more skeptical:
“Idk, you are kind of hard to read. I know you've done reaction testing in the past, but I also have seen you latch on to simple things and stick with them for an entire phase. I didn't scum read it, but if I see flawed logic I will call it out.”
- Drafterman admits he would hammer anyone.
“Put him at L-1 and see if I don't hammer.In fact, I'll hammer the first person to get to L-1 (that isnt me)”
VERDICT: Drafterman is a slight scum read.
- Ragnar & Supa both come up with detailed analyses.
VERDICT: Currently town reads.
- Supa comes out in defense of Intelligence, says:
“Intelligence is town. I am his lover.I know I'm gonna die and his bad behavior is gonna get us killed. Here is the claim. I am Martin Stein. I am intertwined with Ronnie Raymond after being combined by an accelerator”
Drafterman rips into the idea:
“Intel and Supa as town lovers is interesting and essentially gives Mafia a free kill/mislynch. It's pretty hard to protect since it's unlikely you'll be able to protect both at the same time.If both are Town, I question Supa's decision to out it so soon. Intel wasn't anywhere near being lynched and this was clearly a knee jerk reaction.I doubt they are both Scum, so rule that out.I don't rule out Supa being a third party and Intel being town or scum. That would put an interesting twist on Supa's play strategy as he only cares about Intel survive, not whether Intel (or his faction wins). Though if Intel is scum it essentially gives them an extra partner as Supa would always be disinclined to let him get lynched meaning Supa can't joint with the Town. Whereas if Intel is Town, Supa can joint with either fact since Mafia doesn't need to kill all townies to win. There is a scenario where it's Intel + Supa + 2 Mafia and Mafia and a Third Party Lover joints. Though that's not a configuration I'd expect to see here.There is the option that they are both Third Party, essentially joint Survivors. They joint with whoever else wins so long as both survive the game.5 town 2 thirds and 2 maf is feasible.But ultimately I have the same problem as I do with the miller claim. It's a claim whose purpose is to deter people from testing it. "Oh no, don't investigate me, I'm the miller. Tee hee.""On no, don't lynch him, we're town lovers and we'll both die. Tee hee."”
VERDICT: I lean towards believing him. Intelligence has not said otherwise.
- Lunatic favors a no vote currently:
“Well we have 3 claims in day one. This gives mafia a lot of POE to work with. Not even sure what to do at this point. No one likes VTNL's but if we pressure someone else and they end up claiming something we believe it just narrows down the pool for scum finding power roles further.I am leaning a VTNL, of course we can use up the rest of the time in the phase, and I am open to hearing arguments against it.”
VERDICT: Slight town read on Lunatic.
- Sir rules no lynch on Skittlez.
VERDICT: Slight town read on Sir.
- Oromagi confirms that he is indeed my husband.
VERDICT: Null so far.
- A combination of users misinterpret my inactivity as deliberate.
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@Vader
Pointing references to a wiki. The reply was posted 12:29PM CST when the response by Drafter was 12:28CST. There is no way that you looked at the Wiki for that short of time unless someone pasted a link to you, and even so, why look at the wiki for your own role? It clearly states what it is in the PM. I believe someone told you to site the wiki as a way to prove your points. I've never seen you reference a Wiki in my life
He probably got it from me. I searched him up on Wiki in post 9 to verify his claim.
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I don't like Trump, but if there's a circle jerk I want in no homo
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@Lunatic
True that. We were locked in combat for a few pages
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@Lunatic
@oromagi
@SirAnonymous
Hi guys. Sorry for inactivity. The Centaur (as I have been dubbed by the great Oromagi) has been busy with schoolwork, and has spent the last few hours playing Among Us with some friends.
Oromagi points out:
If I am remembering correctly he was chatty town two games ago and quiet scum one game back.
Oromagi is wrong in the sense that I'm quiet as scum. I think most users in the Civil War game will recall I was chatty as mafia as well. But he is right that I was more active before than I have been recently.
Point is, I am going to be less active in general in future games because of school.
I will hopefully be coming out with a detailed analysis tomorrow morning.
That said, if you all want to know what my current scumreads are:
- light scum on Skittlez & Intelligence
- light suspicion on Drafterman
Town reads:
- Ragnar
No one else yet.
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@Vader
Intelligence is a emotion first think later voter. He will vote first thing if he scum reads someone versus looking at the picture.
If this is the norm we've come to expect, not sure that stands as a huge scum read
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@drafterman
I see what you mean. Didn't mean to portray it as a false dichotomy, sorry lol.
Anyway, we should additionally analyze who DIDN'T latch onto it and why. It could be possible that you were right on and Skittlez just has his mafia bros backing him up.
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@Lunatic
I didn't scum read it, but if I see flawed logic I will call it out.
My philosophy of town mafia summarized. Don't spam scum reads, but question things accordingly.
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@drafterman
Fair play. It went right over my head that you were just testing the waters and not pursuing a genuine read.
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@drafterman
No, it is. I'm just not sure your theory will be accurate across the board.
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@drafterman
His doesn't line up (He did X, therefore he is a Y)If his role says he kills, then I consider that a strong indicator that he is a killing role.
I'm not sure we can make that assumption. You're basically saying any notable trait = corresponding power role, and we just can't assume that because inevitably there will be those with character quirks and no power role.
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Not sure there's enough evidence for a Skittlez lynch. I'm inclined to agree with Supa that Skittlez is a wait & see situation. That said, I would like to make it known I don't have a huge knowledge of Arrowverse lore.
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@skittlez09
That was quick.
Well, it lines up:
"As a time remnant of Barry Allen, he was originally just as well-meaning and heroic as his other counterparts. Upon being driven away from his friends and family, derided as a "disposable hero", he decided to cope with his anguish by becoming the very monster that ruined his life, Savitar."
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This is strict... But, I usually operate within these boundaries anyways. Hi all!
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a hell of a lot more free than the alternatives
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@Intelligence_06
An even more in-depth look, that paints a pretty bleak picture for the future of intellectual discussion:
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@Intelligence_06
Langbert and Stevens look at voter registration and candidate contributions for a sample of more than 12,000 profs from several of the top schools in each state. The upshot? “48.4 percent are registered Democrats and 5.7 percent are registered Republicans, a ratio of 8.5:1.” Registration ratios ranged from 3:1 in economics departments to 42:1 in anthropology, and tended to be worse at higher-ranked schools. In terms of donations, 2,081 profs gave exclusively to Democrats and only 22 gave exclusively to Republicans, an incredible 95:1 ratio, though the actual dollar amounts were skewed “only” 21:1.
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The Democrats will claim appointing a new judge before January is immoral. That is only because they can't turn around and do the same.
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Sure, I'm in. I liked Flash and Arrow, but never seen the other stuff in the Arrowverse
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To quote the great and wise Oromagi:
ANT CHANT:antsantsantsantsantsantsantsantsants!ants!ants!
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Probably one of my only quotes that qualify is
"Intervening for the greater good when there is no technical obligation or benefit to yourself is what it means to be a heroic person."
Or, at least, that's what I roughly said. I can't remember the exact wording because that thread got deleted. Oh well
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Seems like a normal Tuesday to me
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I think you answered your own question
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@BearMan
I don't mind much, and this goes without saying, but try not to make a habit out of doing stuff like that
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@seldiora
Press the user profile you want to see. Go to their "Debates" tab. Open the "Status" list, go to "Finished." A new "Result" list will appear, and from there you can sort by debate outcome.
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