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So, I wanted to be doubly sure about Club, because if I was going to consider him town-confirmed, I wanted to be right. So I talked to Warren about a hypothetical poison doctor (PD) role. He told me that in the event of just one poisoner (who cannot fake poison) being in the game, that any PD would act during the night phase. Conversely, Warren said that in the event of two poisoners being in the game (or one poisoner who could fake poison), that a hypothetical PD would act during the day phase. If you ask Warren "if there is only one poisoner in this game, would poison doctor be a day role," he should confirm this information in your PM as well. To break this down:
- Day PD if and only if either (a) there are two poisoners or (b) one poisoner who could fake-poison
- Night PD if and only if there is one poisoner who cannot fake poison
This is important, because Club claims to be an "even-day poison doctor." Given Warren's reply to me, Club's claim can only be true if and only if there are either (a) two poisoners in the game or (b) one poisoner who can fake poison someone. This information opens up some permutations of reality.
Club could be mafia lying about his role and there is no PD in this game; instead, there is only a poisoner who can fake poison, thus allowing Club to get his mafia fake claim role-confirmed. Club could be town telling the truth and legitimately saved Wylted from poisoning, in which case it is not clear whether there are two poisoners or one poisoner who can fake poison in the game. Club could be town telling the truth about his role and did not save Wylted because Wylted was fake-poisoned. Club could be town lying or mistaken about his role. If you can see any more options than these, let me know.
In three out of these four options, Club is town. I still tend to think based on the fact that Wylted is not dead, we should townread Club. Plus, lynching a claimed protective role would not be helpful at this point without strong reasons to suspect guilt. But, based on this analysis, we cannot town-confirm Club until, perhaps, the poisoner(s) flip. I get that this is a fine distinction, but it is important to delineate between townread and town-confirmed.
Thoughts? Am I being illogical here, because this was rather convoluted...?
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Got my reply from Warren. Typing up post now. Not really a breakthrough so much as it muddies the waters still more, as if we needed it.
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@Speedrace
Sometime last DP. IDK where exactly, but you're free to look.
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@Speedrace
I am waiting for warren to get back to me. Gah...
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@Speedrace
Someone will no doubt tell you, yes. But it's up to you not to forget to check.
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@ILikePie5
Dude was anti town - something Disc agreed. And you ended up voting Disc. If anything I should be exonerated not be suspected.
Yeah, I think we all agree that Club's play was/is anti-town. You're also pretty transparently trying to use Disc as a shield against scrutiny. Townies can get things wrong. The fact that Disc's vote was on Club in no way exonerate's you at all. The big difference between you and Disc was that Disc was trying to scumhunt, whereas you weren't trying to hunt for anything, you were just trying to secure a lynch. Do townies tunnel occasionally? Sure. But is your behavior suspect? Absolutely. You are in my scumpile until there is some very good reason that you shouldn't be.
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@WaterPhoenix
Your thoughts on the DPs so far and reads, please.
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@Club
You have to bold votes. Also, two questions:
What were your actions last night? What are you hoping to achieve with a vote on Pie at this stage in the DP?
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@ILikePie5
Amen
After reconsideration, I moved on from the Mhar/Club theory. It doesn't fit the facts. My latest thoughts are in post 34, 37, and 40.
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@Speedrace
IDK when it started.
I'll be back online later tonight.
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@Speedrace
I don't know. I have always wanted kids...about 5 would be nice. But maybe once I have them, my opinion will change.Question, why do y'all want kids? I'm super young, lol, way younger than y'all, but I don't understand why anyone really wants kids. I always think it's too much of a responsibility and I don't want to take care of one or more other people for 18+ years. Or maybe that's just because I'm a kid
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@Speedrace
What if the poisoner is oromagi? He was pretty active at first, but then he just randomly stopped...and it would explain why no one was poisoned last night
Do we know if he was on over the NP?
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@Speedrace
Yeah, that's why I asked you. I can't think of anyone who really tunneled Mhar who wasn't town. But that doesn't mean an Mhar lynch wouldn't help us with POE.
You said: "if he's mafia then anyone tunneling him is likely not mafia." So wouldn't it work in the converse: "if everyone tunneling him is not mafia, then he's likely mafia"? If anything, the fact that everyone tunneling him is dead is reason not to eliminate him from lynch consideration.
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@Speedrace
If not them, I'd suggest that we randomly choose an inactive and take them out and hope that they're mafia
We have to weigh the risks against the rewards if that's what we opt to do. If town mislynches twice--not even factoring in anything with regard to a poisoner--town loses. With 10 players and a 9-vs.-3 set up, this is what the sequence would look like in that scenario:
DP3: 7-3
DP4: 5-3
DP5: 3-3
Mafia would win by DP5. The pro's of such a strategy are that it would help with POE and give town an extra NP, assuming that there are investigative roles to help us out. The con's of such a strategy are that town would be at MYLO next DP and that we might be back to where we started: still searching among the inactives for scum, with no useful results. The risks mean that this strategy could only be a last resort move, IMHO.
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@Speedrace
That's on my mind, too.My other question would be why the Poisoner didn't poison one more person last night?
But two, I think it sheds light on those tunneling him, if he's mafia then anyone tunneling him is likely not mafia, and three, it will help us determine if Club is mafia or not
Who is tunneling him, IYO?
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@ILikePie5
So you think scum were on Disc’s wagon correct?
Let's consider that question. Here's yesterday's vote count.
Mharman: 3/7 (Phione, Wylted, GP)Disc: 4/7 (Club, Mharman, Water, Speed)Club: 2/7 (Disc, Pie)
If we operate under the hypothesis that Disc's lynch was scum-led, then our scumpool would be narrowed to Club, Mhar, Water, and Speed. We know there is a three person scum team. But numerically, not everyone on Disc's lynchwagon can be scum.
I am going to remove known townies and suspected townies from the count. I am including Club in the suspected townies group, because unless something really weird is going on balance/role-wise, I don't think he can be scum. I think Wylted not dying is evidence of a poison doctor. I also know that I am town. With that in mind, here is the revised list:
Mharman: 3/7 (Phione)Disc: 4/7 (Mharman, Water)Club: 2/7 (Pie)
I think that this is a better list of suspects to consider. If we buy the argument that scum would want to be mostly on the same page, in order to increase the likelihood that a lynch was secured, then Mhar and Water look the most suspicious. Then we have Phione and Pie, and, of them, I think Pie is the most suspicious.
It is also possible, of course, that Supa and Oro are scum. Neither of them voted, which would have handicapped mafia's ability to drive the lynch. I could see Supa or Oro in a team with Pie, because Pie was clearly trying to drive the lynch a specific way, but didn't have back up really from anyone else. It's possible that a large portion of the scum team was AWOL, inhibiting Pie's ability to direct the lynch to mafia's preferred target. I'd be interested in other people's thoughts.
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@Speedrace
What information do you think we'd get from an Mhar lynch?
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@Speedrace
Yeah, Pie is in my scumpile. It's not so much that he hammered, it's that he tunneled. He was overeager to secure the lynch of the likely (and then claimed) poison doctor, which does not strike me as pro-town at all.
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@Speedrace
Bsh must be something, also, what's your role? More people should be claiming if we were actually all vanilla
I will claim when I see some utility to doing so, and not before. I did soft claim earlier, and unless I perceive that utility or town wants that information, I am disinclined to provide it. Too many claims helps mafia construct their own fake claims.
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@Speedrace
Serious question though, why is it that no one has tried to step forward as the Cop?
Good question. The cop doesn't want to get targeted, you're right. They may have breadcrumbed their reads in the DP, but that might not be obvious to us until they die and we can go back through their posts to search for those breadcrumbs. Usually, a cop only claims cop when the cop has a guilty result. Some cops won't even out then, preferring to breadcrumb even those, but I find that strategy counterproductive.
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@ILikePie5
I don't have reads on them precisely because they haven't given me enough material to develop reads with. I also find Phione's tinfoil hat comment problematic, so I'll move them back to null.What are your reads on 2 of the most inactive members - Supa and WP
Let's see if we can't pressure Water for a claim and activity. VTL Water. We need to get inactives posting more if we're going to get anywhere this DP, I think.
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@Speedrace
@Phione
Tinfoil that the Poisoner was fake and Club didnt heal anything
Why would the mod announce poisoner then? Now that I think about it, why isn't Club role-confirmed? He certainly wasn't CC'd. And if he isn't role-confirmed, why shouldn't we consider him town-confirmed? Occam's Razor might suggest that Club is town. His play in the DP certainly hasn't been pro-town, but that's true of many less able/experience players who turn out to be townies.
Ok, so I know I've been throwing around theories here about people, I and I was wrong once, but I would like to say who I think the third scum could possibly be...bsh1
I think your analysis here is a good effort at scumhunting, and more reason to townread you. Obviously, I know I am not scum, so I can rule myself out, but I think it's good to ensure that no one is flying below the radar. I do disagree that I haven't had strong opinions; last DP, I repeatedly advocated lynching Mhar both for POE reasons and for behavioral reasons. Certainly, it was clearly the case that Mhar and Club were at the top of my scum list last DP.
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@Mharman
I think we're dealing with noob scum here.
I think this is a plausible explanation of the NK. The Grey NK could be a heavy-handed effort by scum to set-up a lynch on you or Club. Alternatively, it could be a ploy by you and Club to make you look like you were set up. You certainly used your very first post in the DP to make the case for your innocence on the basis of the NK.
Ultimately, then, I think the NK offers us two plausible narratives: noob scum or Mhar/Club scum. I think it is time to begin to pressure inactives for activity, and to continue to consider the possibility of an Mhar-Club team.
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Wylted is tentatively in my townpile, as are Speed and Phione. I really need more activity from the latter two, and the first is hard to read in any game. But unless something damning emerges, I don't think they're today's lynches.
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My initial reaction is that this NK casts further suspicion on Mhar and Club. I think, if Club were not mafia, having claimed a protective role, he would have been first target, over a claimed vanilla. Then again, the NK does set up the Mhar-Club team nicely, so perhaps it's too neat in a sense. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts, as well as any useful results. Let's not rush as we did DP1.
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@janesix
You can use them, but I would consider it a valid objection if you opponent complained that they couldn't access the information.
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@Alec
Adoption involves a lot of legal hurdles, inspections, waiting periods, fees, etc. IVF is still probably more expensive.
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@Alec
Yes, but so is adoption. You'd be surprised at how many legal hurdles exist for gay men attempting to have kids. That's why most gay men are such committed parents, because they didn't get kids on a whim or as an accident.
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@Alec
Well, it is possible to have children related to one parent, but not the other. That is, for example, what Elton John and his husband did. They had two children, one related to each of them. There is also interesting research in stem cells going on which may allow for gay couples to have biologically related children in the future.
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@Speedrace
So, you have a fresher perspective, given that you've just begun wading in. What is your take on the game and on the likely affiliation of its players? What are your reads?
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@Greyparrot
there is a good chance club is town based on the odds being in favor of a scum poisoner
I think whether the poisoner is town or scum is immaterial. That there is a poisoner (whatever the affiliation) suggests the presence of a town-aligned protective role for balancing reasons. Again, Club is not my first choice lynch target precisely because of his claim.
Mharman offers ZERO reasons...but staunchly teams up with Club to defend him, that's indicative of scum using town as a shield.It
So, you're pushing back here on the "Mhar-Club scumteam" theory, and suggesting instead that Mhar might be scum and Club might be town? I think Mhar using Club as a shield is possible, but I don't find that particular train of logic to be convincing. It seems to me that a scum Mhar would have tried to redirect the lynch to Club to deflect focus on himself, rather than trying to shield himself behind Club. Deflection is more pro-scum because it would result in a mislynch (presuming Club is town) and it would buy him the extra time. I tend to think, then, that either they're not scum, or they are scum together. I could more readily understand, for instance, Mhar being reluctant to bus a teammate this early in the game than Mhar being reluctant to deflect a lynchwagon onto a townie.
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@Greyparrot
And the significance of this is...?I have some sketchy logic pointing toward Club as town, and Mharman as scum riding on town coattails.
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