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@Speedrace
So, like Wylted said, we learn a bit more from a Mharman lynch
I have just one thing to say...
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@ILikePie5
It makes sense, but you have to factor in that Club is effectively useless at this game.
You're way too eager for this lynch, as is Grey.
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@ILikePie5
Explain/rephrase please.If Mharman is leading him then if Club flips innocent then it proves there was zero planning with their comments and it was pure coincidence. Now if Mharman is the backup and that’s a big if, he can be confirmed by saving the next Poison victim.
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@ILikePie5
No, Mharman can be confirmed backup next time someone is poisoned. We have to lynch Club to be able to exonerate Mharman
Why does this read to me as a ploy to get rid of a protective role? Better to risk losing a UB than a PD, IMHO.
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@Speedrace
I am asking Grey because I want to know his subjective assessment. I am in interested in what he is thinking, not what the actual math is.
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@Mharman
Yes, I can. Because if Club is town, he should be acting in town's best interests, and not ingratiating himself to those who advocate his innocence.Can you blame Club for trusting only me when the other two asking for claims are the ones he believes are scum?
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I am on page 18 right now as I catch up. Not liking Pie's tunneling on Club. Club isn't the only player worthy of scrutiny right now.
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@Wylted
Is water a path you would explore lynching?
POE lynches are best when they eliminate someone that is under some suspicion. Ultimately, then, I don't see water as a better alternative than Mhar or Club unless neither of those lynches can be feasibly secured.
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@Greyparrot
I'd like an answer to my question: To what extent then do you think one's innocence might indicate the other's? If we lynch Mhar, for example, and if he flips town, how likely do you think it is that Club is also town?
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@Wylted
I changed my mind on the utility of the lynch given his role is not what I thought it was.
Explain.
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@Greyparrot
I think both of them rushed to VTNL last Dayphase for town cred without bothering to notice the caveat about hammering the VTNL. That's pretty apparent from their protests and team play behavior.
To what extent then do you think one's innocence might indicate the other's? If we lynch Mhar, for example, and if he flips town, how likely do you think it is that Club is also town?
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@Wylted
You are the most experienced mod here. Would you put a universal back up on the scum team?
I have never seen a universal back-up as anything other than town-aligned. I could imagine a mafia role which acquired the role of the first mafioso to die, however. That said, I find it extremely unlikely that a genuine UB would be anything other than town.
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Town does NOT benefit from someone tossing out a pokemon character that seems benign and then calling it a day. Club has no reveals, no analysis, and is going to continue to be a drag on the town from here on out.
I think this is a fair point by Grey. But I am loath to lynch a potential protective role. Club is certainly not helping his case, however, when he refuses to full claim. I don't understand the reluctance at this point.
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As of post 322, I haven't seen your full claim. Why haven't you full claimed?
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Why are people leaping to the conclusion that Club is the poisoner? I am not seeing that at all with a Chansey claim.
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@Greyparrot
Nah he would have revealed that immediately.
I think that gives him too much credit.
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Catching up now. I am having a friend over today, so I won't be too active until she leaves later.
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Alright. I am going to log off for the night. See everyone tomorrow. Wait for Club and Speed to weigh-in please before lynching anyone.
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@Greyparrot
I suppose that's true, though perhaps less so if most of us believe that the poisoner is scum.
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I think that's probably the best argument I've seen for the poisoner-as-NK, which until now struck me as assumed without specific reason.
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I also think there are balancing issues at play. A poisoner-as-NK would seem to delay the first mafia kill until DP2 or NP2. That seems to give town a leg up on mafia, and potentially an extra mislynch buffer. While we don't know the balance picture at this point, it strikes me as unlikely that town would be given such a useful leg up. It is a solely pro-town skew. A poisoner-as-town might still potentially harm town by mistargeting, but it is not guaranteed to harm town, and so strikes me, in the abstract, as less imbalanced. D
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@Greyparrot
Why do you think poisoner is more likely town?
Sure. I already answered that question.
Nah fuck you and your fucking obtuse game.
Please now answer what I asked. Whether you think the question obtuse or not, it will help me formulate my own analysis. Thanks.
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@Greyparrot
So, the presence of a scum poisoner might explain the lack of an NK, but you just gave a plausible alternative scenario. Why do you find the former more likely?
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@Speedrace
You say that Wylted is not vanilla. You say that he is. We need more information from you to resolve this conflict.
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@Speedrace
Do you have any reason to suspect that Wylted is not town?
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@Speedrace
Also, to whoever asked, I can tell you that Wylted is not Vanilla town
How do you know? And did Wylted claim vanilla (I didn't see a claim from him)?
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@ILikePie5
Stop posting streams of fluff that clutter the DP.
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@Greyparrot
I want you to answer the specific questions I posed. You said:
Because there was no NK and no town is stepping up..so either town is going to repeat the action (which is fine) or scum is a poisoner.
I then asked you:
Why does the lack of an NK have anything to do with it? Why does town not stepping up lead you to conclude that the poisoner is scum?
Please answer these questions.
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Alright. I am going to log off for a bit. I'll try to check back in at least once more tonight.
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@Wylted
Eh. I don't see what you're seeing, but I do think it's better for town to share ideas than hold them back.
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I do think that Pie coming in here like gangbusters on Club is odd. He's certainly a good target for scrutiny.
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@Wylted
And why do you think that is a tell, instead of him being facetious?
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@ILikePie5
Why are you so convinced about Club? You're pushing pretty aggressively, here.
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@WaterPhoenix
You mean "unvote" not "unlynch." A lynch usually happens when a majority of people as voted for someone.
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Yeah, let's hold off on the Club lynch until we can get more information.
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@Club
Club's posts are mostly mono- or disyllabic bits of fluff. And I don't get the town motivation for the hammer, nor do I get why Club isn't cooperating more when questioned.
However, your soft-claim immediately makes me wary to lynch you. Since you are on the chopping block, we need all the information to make the best decision. You claimed Chansey, which to me screams Doctor. Are you a protective role?
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Hopefully your in college though. You're too smart to be putting things in totes for the rest of your life.
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@Club
Club, is post 31 some weird way of claiming poison doctor or are you just informing me that poisoner is a role in the game, which we already knew?What am I supposed to say? Bananas?
What even is this post?
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@Discipulus_Didicit
That wording reads to me like a scumslip. But I like that you owned up to it--no defensiveness.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
He confesses in this DP that his VTNL hammer was intentional.
Yeah, that is odd. I could see it being an unintentional error by a townie. I don't get why a townie would hammer on purpose.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Honestly, I didn't get much from that first post other than his atrocious grammar. I mean, I misspell things occasionally, but I found that post genuinely annoying. I think you read into it more than what was there. But I honestly haven't been reading his posts too closely, so I'll go back and take a gander at them.
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