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And listen, I'll agree that the rush to "antagonist is scum" is premature. It's a knee-jerk reaction, but one a townie would be inclined to make. But the argument against it isn't to question the thematic split for no reason but why scum-Grey would openly claim a scum character. If that ultimately leads you to question a thematic split, that is understandable, but Sir didn't present that logic.
Rather the opposite, he used his assumption of no thematic split to try and question the pressure on Grey, rather than using Grey's claim to question the assumption of a thematic split.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
False, all he did was state that the "anTaGONisT iZ ZcuM" rush was illogical. He was right to do so by the way - yes, even before speed said anything.
Yeah, that's the point. He was right about a mechanic only scum would know about before the mod publicly revealed it.
Except we're talking about a hypothetical versus a real. So if you want me to hypothetically scum read you based on your hypothetical actions, sure.Everything he said in that regard was nearly word for word what I would have said if I was online at the time and we could be here for an hour or so with me explaining why. You going to stay consistent and scum read me now too?
Also recall that I already have SA in a scum pile because of previous PoE. It isn't like this is the only reason I've scum read him. It's just adding additional logic to the numbers game.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
The thing that rings true for me is Sir implicitly operating on a "no thematic split" basis before the mod confirmed it.
Grey claimed in post #13. Here are the responses to that claim up to the point Speed confirms no thematic split.
Pie - A joke post, then moves on
Supa - Grey is town, then dislikes the claim after reading into it and realizing Helmut is an antagonist
Sir - Initially ignores the claim and suggests going after inactives. Without reason, questions the most obvious thematic split.
Water - Doesn't address Grey's claim directly, but questions others about it.
Bullish - Antagonist = Scum
I don't think it is out of line to believe that a Mafia game has a thematic split (unless explicitly stated) and that the thematic split is "good guys" vs. "bad guys." It's been like that in Mafia since time immemorial. Even Sir acknowledges this but, without reason, plants the seeds of doubt.
Both Supa (who we are pretty sure is town) and Bullish instinctively scum-read Grey because he claimed a villain. That is only natural for Town to do. I would have too if I was here to do it.
Water doesn't really react to the claim itself but questions others about their responses. It actually makes me slightly town read him since how people react to claims could arguably be more telling than the claim itself.
Pie's reaction is scummy since he doesn't really react. He tosses out a joke and moves on. With a claim like that, you gotta take some sort of stance, you can't just ignore it.
So Pie ignores it (scum) and Sir starts - without reason - questioning any thematic analysis and all of a sudden the mod comes in and confirms that there is no theme. Only scum would know there is no theme from the start.
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Now that warren has come out of his pleasure cave to participate I town read him. Doing a post-by-post response is a tiring through to do, especially when you have 25 pages of posts to go through. I wouldn't blame him for skimming a few dozen and just doing a single catch up post. Only an invested townie has any real incentive to do what warren did, because it costs him time and effort for little gain in terms of getting read.
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There has been a lot of development over the DP.
I think there are good cases against both Pie and SirAnon.
Bullish is even more town for me since he is doing basically what he did in South Park mafia: starting out in derp-town then popping his limitless pill and coming out with some good analysis.
His case against Sir is hard to argue and if there was momentum to switch from Pie to SA, I would jump on it, but I don't see it happening.
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@Barney
@Vader
@Bullish
@Speedrace
@Singularity
Okay, doesn't look like the DP is over so I'll post.
As a mod-note, and it's up to Speed as to whether to implement this or not, the exception to the "everyone must vote" rule is when there is a majority wagon and the only person note voting is the person who is the target of the majority wagon. This is to exactly prevent what Pie is doing: trying to delay the game.
Now, for people who don't like this rule and want to whine about this being an example, just remember that currently there isn't any majority wagon right now and the game would still be going on anyway without it. Just saying that if Pie gets to a majority and he is still the only one not voting, the lynch should still go throw.
Back to the show.
Who is on your non town list other than pie, I think my scum pool and everyone else's should be pretty small at this point. It should be easy to decide on a lynch. I can tell you I have pie in the town pile for now, u less you have inside information which you did hint at earlier. (I THINK)
This is annoying. First you accused me of not having any argument. Then I helpfully linked you to three or four posts where I explicitly outlined my argument, now you're saying it's "hidden" information. Stop being lazy. I picked Pie out of pure process of elimination.
1. There was scum on grey's wagon.
2. It wasn't you or Supa.
3. I also rulle out Bullish
4. That leaves Pie and SirAnon
I'm not replying to any more of your posts until you acknowledge that this is what I am presenting as my logic. I'm bored of having to repeat myself only for people to come in and deny that I've presented anything.
@Ragnar: See above
@Bullish:
SA was on your 3 man elimination list. Vote him. I urge you to reread Pie and find that he is not scum. Single and Supa will likely get on board. We can get this going.
I see your case on SirAnon, but I think it's too late in the DP to go for it. It's between you and Pie right now so I'll stay on Pie. The mod clarification doesn't clear him and the case against him is pretty good. Not as good as Bullish' against Sir, I think, but this is the best lynch for today.
@Supa:
Pie is town confirmed
No he isn't, don't be a derp.
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FYI I haven't fully caught up yet. I'll be inactive today but be back tomorrow
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@Lunatic
What's funny is it used to be impossible to get him to claim at all.
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The rule is the rule. It was made open and clear in the OP. Deal with it.
Argue about it in the end game.
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@Speedrace
You have lunatic twice. The vote on gp is erroneous
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I don't envy Speed having to do this tally
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This is why lynchers sometimes have the secondary condition of winning with town if they survive
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@oromagi
He said "you don't need to unvote."
What other ways are there to read that?
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@oromagi
He did clarify. He specifically said you don't need to unvote
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@Singularity
Why vote Luna? He's harmless now
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You shouldn't gloat until the mod calls it anyway. You never know if someone is popular or if there is something like a governor
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I like the rule because it prevents winning via quick hammers like this and forces scum to play more strategically
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@oromagi
It doesn't matter, not everyone voted so grey wasn't lynched
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@oromagi
Don't vote lunatic, he's harmless now and that just gives mafia a free kill
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So this confirms Grey and Lunatic. He's now harmless dead weight.
Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
Vtl pie
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I don't know why people keep putting Sir on Grey's lynch. He unvoted 10 years ago.
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If it's a bus then that still means GP is scum anyway. I don't see how there is any other reasonable option than to lynch Grey and go from there. Doesn't change my other thoughts. Still think there is scum on the wagon and we can deal with that tomorrow.
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@Greyparrot
If you are accepting his claim as Black Panther then you are accepting his results and he basically said you're scum? Are you admitting to being scum?
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I don't see how Grey's behavior fits in with that role, but he also didn't understand the implications of Turn Coat either.
The results are just too much to be fake.
Unvote. VTL Grey
UVC
ILikePie5 - 1/7 - Grey
GreyParrot - 5/7 - SupaDudz, Singularity, ILikePie5, Luna, drafterman
Bullish - 1/7 - Discipulus_Didicit
Sir - 1/7 - Bullish
Ragnar - 1/7 - oro
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@Singularity
This sounds like a concession that his behavior matches his role irrespective of his affiliation. So his behavior, in this case, should be a null read to you.
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@Singularity
Then you're suggesting he is actively game throwing which is a rather severe allegation to make.
There is no precedent for that, and his scum team would be throwing a fit and he'd risk getting mod killed and banned from future games.
I would certainly black list him if it turns out he was game throwing simply because he didn't like playing as scum. I think FourTrouble used to try and pull that BS back in the day until he was called out on it.
You're assuming static behavior based only on affiliation. Behavior is dynamic dependent on affiliation AND role.
Grey's behavior makes perfect sense given his claim.
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@Singularity
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@oromagi
Thank you for the kind words. I try to keep things simple and not get "involved" in the game, per se.
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@warren42
Warren needs to get active or get replaced anyway. I'm tempted to go along with the Grey lynch just so he can hop back in and replace as another player.
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So, it's a New Year. People like to make resolutions. I'm going to make a resolution and I invite everyone else to join me.
This is a game that can get heated. It instills paranoia and doubt in people and is a recipe for high emotions.
But it is also a game that requires people to eventually overcome that paranoia and doubt and work together to a common goal.
That means convincing other people on a course of action. And one of the Aristotlean aspects of argumentation is pathos or appeal to emotion. We all make mistakes or engage in fallacies or just simply have different points of view. But we aren't going to get anywhere by calling other people, their suggestions or positions "retarded."
If you present to me a reasonable course of action that I want to take, but I have questions or doubt it, calling me "retarded" is going to make me want to reject it just as an emotional reflex.
It doesn't help the game.
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UVC
ILikePie5 - 2/7 - drafterman, Grey
GreyParrot - 3/7 - SupaDudz, Singularity, ILikePie5
Bullish - 1/7 - Discipulus_Didicit
Sir - 1/7 - Bullish
Ragnar - 1/7 - oro
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@Greyparrot
There was no scenario you can imagine where town would lose by waiting 1 day to lynch him.
You're right that waiting a single day wouldn't have lost down the game. And given that there was no NK NP1 (due to Supa's BP) I'm sure everyone would have assumed they converted oro and he'd get lynched anyway.
But I don't think that's a point in your favor, since they are mechanically equivalent.
The main issue with your thinking was statements like this:
It's a ridiculously dumb idea because if scum wastes a nk on traitor they just give town a free night action..... no reason at all for town to be voting up a wash that gives town an extra night action.
It isn't a waste of an NK. An NK only reduces Town numbers by one.
A conversion reduces Town numbers by one and increases Mafia numbers by one. It is mathematically worse.
Secondly, the conversion is secret so Town doesn't know what has happened and simply think there was a blocked NK.
oro outing prevented that outcome, for sure, but that just presents scum another option:
Wait until MYLO. At MYLO, the conversion ends the game during the night and there isn't another DP for Town to do anything about it.
That means with oro outed, you had to kill him before MYLO came around. But lynching him on any day is just as good as lynching him any other day.
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@Singularity
So you admit his play is different here than most games. Nice to know
Not every change in behavior means they're scum.
You aren't behaving exactly the same way you've always played in all of your many games, ma'am.
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@Greyparrot
Then he gets killed. There was no rush.
That's the part you aren't getting. They wait until his conversion wins them the game. That is, there isn't a subsequent DP for Town to lynch him. His switch in affiliation is what triggers their wincon immediately. But, again, we can discuss further later.
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@Greyparrot
Another discussion for another time, but you were 100% wrong about that. Scum would have let him live until the conversion would win them the game.
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@Singularity
Did you factor in the fact that Grey seems perfectly fine getting lynched into that analysis? Do you think this is just some huge WIFOM bluff on his part?
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Voting for me in my eyes is equivalent to a vtnl which isn't going to break town.
I think the biggest case against lynching Grey is the fact that he is perfectly fine with him getting lynched.
So either he is town and he recognizes the anti-utility nature of his role, OR him getting lynched is part of his wincon.
In either case, we're better off finding actual scum that doesn't want to get lynched.
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@Vader
He claimed WIN WITH TOWNThis would have to be a Jester roleHe is lying about his role, its bastard win with town, it doesn't make sense
We can continue this discussion in the End Game, it's not pertinent at the moment. I'm just saying, if you think someone is a Jester YOU DONT VOTE TO LYNCH THEM.
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@Vader
No I said he's scum. Why would I want to give him a lynch
Why you playin'?
Wait I just realized something. If your suicidal, how do you win with town? That would for sure be a third party/jester type role where that user would win. he said he wins with townFound itVTL Grey
You literally accused him of being a Jester type role (that wins if they get lynched) and then voted to lynch him.
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@Singularity
If GP is hinting that he only full claims dp1 as town, he needs to be banned from future games. Manufacturing 100% accurate town tells is unfair.
He verifiably doesn't only full claim DP1 as Town. He did it in VIRTs game as scum.
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@Singularity
If you want me to believe scum is on his lynch, you need to prove he is town.
The options are:
He is scum that openly claimed a scummy character and scummy role and agreed to get himself lynched;
He is town that openly claimed a scummy character and scummy role and agreed to get himself lynched;
The latter is far, far more likely than the former.
However, I disagree that it should be necessary to provide that GP is town to convince you that scum is on his lynched. Once it was established that he was a scummy character with a scummy, anti-town role, and once a wagon started developing on him, it would be in scum's interest to hop on that wagon.
I am more inclined to believe the people not on his lynch are scum.
Why *more* inclined? It's almost certainly that both are true: there are scum on his lynch and there are scum not on his lynch. Again, let's break down the possibilities:
1. There is exactly 0 scum on his lynch.
2. There is exactly 0 scum not on his lynch.
3. There is scum on his lynch and not on his lynch.
#1 is a problem because Grey voted himself at some point and you are saying he is scum, so #1 is a contradiction.
I believe you and Supa are Town by POE, leaving us with Bullish, Pie, and SA.
If #2 is true, then ALL of them are the entire scum team (unlikely)
That leaves #3 as the only real viable option, and POE narrows it down to one or more of Bullish, Pie, and SA.
Why would me and supa out our role if you aren't even going to use the information for analysis?
I explicitly DID use it for analysis. Believing scum to be on Grey's wagon, it narrows down who that scum would be. That is: Bullish, Pie, and/or SA.
Are you going to do this when a watcher watches the NK on DP2 or if on dP2 a cop gets a guilty? Or if somebody is tracked to the NK target?
Do... what, exactly?
When people out their roles to catch scum you go with it. I will be the NK target obviously because it is a two for one shot.
That's WIFOM. We don't know what other roles there are. Hell, for all we know, you and Supa have linked roles, but they say something else and this is some sort of combo-gambit. Maybe you're like... dual bodyguards and you protect each other each night and PREVENT the other from getting killed.
We can't know balance without knowing all the roles. Without that info, balance analysis is moot.
I am not about to let my life get wasted to catch scum only to watch town randomly decide to town read GP and randomly call people on his lynch scum based on their random town read of GP
It's not random.
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Shit guys, don't forget warren42 exists and is in the game.
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UVC
ILikePie5 - 2/7 - drafterman, Grey
GreyParrot - 3/7 - SupaDudz, Singularity, ILikePie5
SupaDudz - 1/7 - oromagi
Bullish - 1/7 - Discipulus_Didicit
Sir - 1/7 - Bullish
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@Singularity
The argument is that there is scum on Grey's lynch and POE narrows it down to Bullish, Pie, or SA.
Who in that pile do you think is most likely scum?
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Well I have a pretty strong town read on siranon right now but still would prefer to lynch Bullish over pie. Tell ya what, how about you and I try to convince the rest of town to choose between pie and bullish and agree to vote for whichever of those two lynches seems more likely to go through?
I can agree to this.
Pie - has pledged to be active, but I am skeptical. Inactive players are hard to read and are inherently anti-town regardless of affiliation. At the very least locking him into a claim would be beneficial, so we can factor that information into POE analysis later on without requiring him to be active at a crucial moment.
Bullish - Bullish acts in a chaotic matter even when town, which makes him slightly anti-town regardless of affiliation as well. However, when Town, he has been known to get his shit together and start providing good analysis. He at least is active and provides material that can be analyzed. I don't particularly see any behavior that makes me think scum on him.
Don't ask why, just lynch Pie.
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UVC
ILikePie5 - 1/7 - drafterman
GreyParrot - 3/7 - SupaDudz, Singularity, ILikePie5
SupaDudz - 1/7 - oromagi
Bullish - 2/7 - Discipulus_Didicit, GreyParrot
Sir - 1/7 - Bullish
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I find Bull to be in an older Mafia mind set when it comes to how games are designed and how people play them. Based on his (town) behavior in South Park mafia and in this mind, I see him as being pretty consistent.
That leaves Pie and Sir and Pie is just first on the list.
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Looking at just the town/mafia numbers, we have exactly 2 mislynches. This is going to be a tight game and we to be spot on here.
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