oromagi's avatar

oromagi

*Moderator*

A member since

8
10
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Total posts: 8,696

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if you want to watch gun nuts do a loop de loop....
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@n8nrgmi
Well, this suit does not reflect gun policy much one way or the other.  Let's recall that Oliver North tried hard to save the organization by exposing LaPierre's flagrant corruption but was prevented after a bitter power struggle.  Gun Rights Advocates and particularly  NRA members should be glad to remove such an important impediment to  effective organization and legislation.  Some less corrupt portion of that movement would be smart to start a new leaner, cleaner, more effective organization right now and try to capture as much NRA membership as possible before the infighting fragments the movement.

I've always said George W Bush missed his true calling as Baseball Commissioner but he might be an excellent candidate to found a new organization in the tradition of the old NRA.  I also agree with Trump that they should incorporate in Texas.
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"No rational person' can say Floyd's death was racially motivated"
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@Stephen
But it has been seen around the world as a racist hate crime, has it not? 
yep
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Happy DART Day
When the site went down last night I imagined some two year license had expired and DART was gone for good.
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Happy DART Day
hippo birdie
two ewes
hippo  birdie
two ewes
hippo birdie
deer ewes
hippo birdie
two ewes
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"No rational person' can say Floyd's death was racially motivated"
The opinions of a sports writer on FOX news bear about as much legal authority as Kanye West on Twitter.  Derek Chauvin is not charged with a hate crime.  He is charged with unintentional second-degree murder in the course of committing assault in the third degree.  Since Chauvin's intent is not relevant to the murder charge,  Chauvin's racial predispositions are not likely to influence the outcome of the trial.

I agree that a guilty verdict for the murder charge is unlikely but mostly because Chauvin's conduct was not inconsistent with Minneapolis Police Policy at the time of Floyd's death.  I predict the subsequent disclosures of massive financial fraud- hiding half a million in earnings since 2016, declaring residency in Fla to avoid state taxes,  covering up a $100,000 BMW purchase last year, etc will ultimately lead to more jail time than Floyd's murder.  We may even find out what crimes Chauvin had to commit to earn all that cash under the table.
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BLM must be stopped
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@Dr.Franklin
-> @oromagi
What do you think "legitimately trained Marxist" means?
Marxists that are trained to demand marxist change
  • That's like defining a trained parrot as a parrot who is trained to parrot.   You aren't adding any context to the word Marxist which suggests that you don't have a ready understanding of the concept. 
  • What is your plan for stopping BLM?
i dont know
  • So you lack any plan for action, which tells us that us that you haven't considered or else are heedless of the consequences of your call to action.
I said it MUST be stopped, how about we start by exposing these things
  • Exposing what?  As I've pointed out a couple of times before, Cullors freely offered this biographical insight five years ago, at the advent of BLM.  This narrative of "exposing" and "admission" is a falsehood you are contributing- fake news.
and then stop listening to them
Well, we are all already free to stop listening to BLM right now.  Look, I think people should stop watching The Bachelor but if I posted a forum titled  "The Bachelor Must be Stopped" readers would rationally understand that to mean something rather more than "stop watching the Bachelor," right?

BLM's mission is fairly straightforward:

  • to eradicate white supremacy and
  • build local power to intervene in violence inflicted on Black communities by the state and vigilantes.
Personally, I'm fine with this mission.  white supremacist are  responsible for the majority of domestic terrorism since 9/11 and the mission of white supremacist is diametrically opposed to the mission of America as defined in the Declaration of Independence, the US Constitution, BIll of Right, Gettysburg Address, etc, etc, etc. 
BLM has made a compelling case that the state and vigilantes regularly violate the civil rights of US Citizens based on skin color in clear contravention of 4th and 14th Amendment protections, at least.

Do I find much of the rhetoric and posturing of BLM overblown, irrational, and contrary to the stated mission?  Yes, but that is true of every grass roots movement I've ever participated in or paid attention to.   In the land of free speech, every word of wisdom comes encapsulated by nine idiocies.

Would you kill to keep black lesbians from studying economics?
I'm glad to hear it.  Short of  mass  state & vigilante violence, I think your call to stop BLM is doomed to fail. 

I find your argument 100% unconvincing.


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BLM must be stopped
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@Dr.Franklin
MARXISM is "a method of socioeconomic analysis that uses a materialist interpretation of historical development, better known as historical materialism, to understand class relations and social conflict as well as a dialectical perspective to view social transformation. It originates from the works of 19th-century German philosophers Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels. As Marxism has developed over time into various branches and schools of thought, there is currently no single definitive Marxist theory"

So, for example, I am a trained Marxist.   I studied the use of the Marxist dialectic in artistic critical theory.  I am able to discuss The SImpsons as a Marxist critique of both the greedy bourgeoisie as represented by Mr. Burns as well as  the consumption-numbed proletariat as represented by Homer Simpson.  I've written essays decrying Newt Gingrich's patronizing perspective of the proletariat demonstrated by his praise of Forrest Gump as representative of what a good American should be (dumb, lucky, submissive, and uncurious).

Marxism is a method, a tool.  It is not a political ideology.  It is not a religious ideology.  It doesn't mean anti-Capitalist, or anti-American, or anti-Christian.  It doesn't mean Socialist, or Communist, or Marxist-Leninist (which is what FOX News mostly thinks Marxism means).  Many, many people think Marxism is an ideology but that does not change the meaning of the word or the economic skill set it describes.

If you are not a trained Marxist, then your education is missing some pretty fundamental economic and critical theory.


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BLM must be stopped
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@Dr.Franklin
@oromagi
  Anybody who's taken a college macroeconomics class likely qualifies as a legitimately trained Marxist. 
explain how that works exactly?

I'll answer your question after you have answered mine.

  • What do you think "legitimately trained Marxist" means?
  • What is your plan for stopping BLM?
  • Would you kill to keep black lesbians from studying economics?



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BLM must be stopped
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@Dr.Franklin
we already did this one. 


also not "they," she- Patrisse Cullors
also not "just" - 5 years ago.  I'm sure the NY Post will keep "re-discover"ing  this claim some more in the future.
also not "admitted" but declared.  An admission is a response, an acknowledgement. Saying "admitted" implies guilt where no guilt is warranted.  Cullors volunteered this uncontroversial biographical claim.  Anybody who's taken a college macroeconomics class likely qualifies as a legitimately trained Marxist.    A black lesbian saying she's taken an economics class should not be so terrifying to you, I wonder why it does?

What do you think "legitimately trained Marxist" means?

What is your plan for stopping BLM? Must implies an imperative.   Would you kill to keep black lesbians from studying economics?



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Pick Your Poison: Mafia Signups
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@warren42
/in , bastard
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Suppose a Christian or Jewish worker got called to do work on Sunday. Is he excused to NOT go there?
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@Intelligence_06

--> @oromagi
I am sorry I asked several questions in a row causing unnecessary confusion but do you mean the person is excused to not go to his job?
That's a different question than the OP.

To be clear,

  • I think of the fourth commandment as mostly superstitious nonsense.
  • The important bit was about giving people a day off from work.  The modern interpretation is that people should get two days off from work each week, Saturday and Sunday are the most popular days off but from a cultural perspective, which days particularly is no longer emphasized.
    • I think adapting to 3 or 4 days off per week makes sense as the overall demand for labor decreases while populations continue to increase.
  • Yes, modern society wants and requires a certain degree of essential labor 24/7/365 and those workers should fear no state or religious sanction.
  • Nevertheless, abiding the Sabbath is any free citizen's right and privilege.  Employers should respect any employee's religious practice to a reasonable degree.  Jobs (essential or otherwise) that conflict with some religious practice should be fulfilled by employees with little or no religious inhibition relevant to the job. For example, a traditional adherent to Seventh Day Adventism might be a poor candidate for a butcher's shop.

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Suppose a Christian or Jewish worker got called to do work on Sunday. Is he excused to NOT go there?
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@Intelligence_06
Yes.
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Poker Mafia - Endgame
Hooray for croc
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Don't underestimate speedrace
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@Lunatic
Agree.  That’s why I nominated him to rep DART in the 2020 championships back in March. I think he’s the best active mafia player on DART. 
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Is Liberalism Dying?
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@sadolite
the majority of those beliefs are called far right extremists views from what I an told and lectured to by self espoused liberals
My definition comes from Wikipedia.  I'd say the majority of people talk politics using a highly inaccurate political vocabulary.  If one accepts the Declaration of independence  or the Gettysburg Address as truth, then one is a liberal by definition however often the FOX News pundits try to change the meaning of that word.  There's a lot of false political dichotomies out there and even a little research on political terms would profoundly improve the quality of political discourse.
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Mr Ethan's gone again....What did I miss?
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Isaiah Anthony Wayne Jackson 6’2″ 175lb. BLM
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@Stephen
per yer request-

-> @Stephen
Added 07.09.20 10:15AM
--> @oromagi
Muhammad commanded tolerance for Jews and Christians. 

Did he ? When?
All his life.  Remember that Muhammad grew up among Jewish nomadic tribes and Christian cities and Muhammad considered himself a continuation of both traditions.

Here's some examples


Whenever Christian monks, devotees and pilgrims gather together, whether in a mountain or valley, or den, or frequented place, or plain, or church, or in houses of worship, verily we are [at the] back of them and shall protect them, and their properties and their morals, by Myself, by My Friends and by My Assistants, for they are of My Subjects and under My Protection.
I shall exempt them from that which may disturb them; of the burdens which are paid by others as an oath of allegiance. They must not give anything of their income but that which pleases them—they must not be offended, or disturbed, or coerced or compelled. Their judges should not be changed or prevented from accomplishing their offices, nor the monks disturbed in exercising their religious order, or the people of seclusion be stopped from dwelling in their cells.
No one is allowed to plunder these Christians, or destroy or spoil any of their churches, or houses of worship, or take any of the things contained within these houses and bring it to the houses of Islam. And he who takes away anything therefrom, will be one who has corrupted the oath of God, and, in truth, disobeyed His Messenger.
Jizya should not be put upon their judges, monks, and those whose occupation is the worship of God; nor is any other thing to be taken from them, whether it be a fine, a tax or any unjust right. Verily I shall keep their compact, wherever they may be, in the sea or on the land, in the East or West, in the North or South, for they are under My Protection and the testament of My Safety, against all things which they abhor.
No taxes or tithes should be received from those who devote themselves to the worship of God in the mountains, or from those who cultivate the Holy Lands. No one has the right to interfere with their affairs, or bring any action against them. Verily this is for aught else and not for them; rather, in the seasons of crops, they should be given a Kadah for each Ardab of wheat (about five bushels and a half) as provision for them, and no one has the right to say to them 'this is too much', or ask them to pay any tax.
As to those who possess properties, the wealthy and merchants, the poll-tax to be taken from them must not exceed twelve drachmas a head per year (i.e. about 200 modern day US dollars).
They shall not be imposed upon by anyone to undertake a journey, or to be forced to go to wars or to carry arms; for the Muslims have to fight for them. Do no dispute or argue with them, but deal according to the verse recorded in the Quran, to wit: ‘Do not dispute or argue with the People of the Book but in that which is best’ . Thus they will live favored and protected from everything which may offend them by the Callers to religion (Islam), wherever they may be and in any place they may dwell.
Should any Christian woman be married to a Muslim, such marriage must not take place except after her consent, and she must not be prevented from going to her church for prayer. Their churches must be honored and they must not be withheld from building churches or repairing convents.
They must not be forced to carry arms or stones; but the Muslims must protect them and defend them against others. It is positively incumbent upon every one of the follower of Islam not to contradict or disobey this oath until the Day of Resurrection and the end of the world."

"In the name of God, the Merciful, the Beneficent. This is what Muhammad, the Prophet and God’s Messenger, has written down for the people of Najran when he has the authority over all their fruits, gold, silver, crops and slaves. He has benevolently left them all that in return for 2,000 hullas every year, 1,000 to be given in the month of Rajab and 1,000 in the month of Safar. Each hulla is equal to one ounce [a measure equal to 4 dirhams]. The Najran are also required to provide accommodation and expenses for my messengers, for up to 20 days. None of my messengers shall be kept in Najran more than one month. They are also required to give, as a loan, 30 shields, 30 horses and 30 camels, in case of any disorder and treachery in Yemen. If anything is lost of the shields, horses or camels they loan to my messenger, it will remain owing by my messenger until it is given back. Najran has the protection of God and the pledges of Muhammad, the Prophet, to protect their lives, faith, land, property, those who are absent and those who are present, and their clan and allies. They need not change anything of their past customs. No right of theirs or their religion shall be altered. No bishop, monk or church guard shall be removed from his position. Whatever they have is theirs, no matter how big or small. They are not held in suspicion and they shall suffer no vengeance killing. They are not required to be mobilized and no army shall trespass on their land. If any of them requests that any right of his should be given to him, justice shall be administered among them. He who takes usury on past loans is not under my protection. No person in Najran is answerable for an injustice committed by another."

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Isaiah Anthony Wayne Jackson 6’2″ 175lb. BLM
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@Stephen
I just finished that response.  I'll repost it here.  I ignored it before because Muhammad's treatment of Abrahamic peoples is well documented and readily researched on Wikipedia.  You ought not to have any need for me to educate you.
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Why Is Christianity #1?
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@Stephen
Added 07.09.20 10:15AM
--> @oromagi
Muhammad commanded tolerance for Jews and Christians. 

Did he ? When?
All his life.  Remember that Muhammad grew up among Jewish nomadic tribes and Christian cities and Muhammad considered himself a continuation of both traditions.

Here's some examples


Whenever Christian monks, devotees and pilgrims gather together, whether in a mountain or valley, or den, or frequented place, or plain, or church, or in houses of worship, verily we are [at the] back of them and shall protect them, and their properties and their morals, by Myself, by My Friends and by My Assistants, for they are of My Subjects and under My Protection.
I shall exempt them from that which may disturb them; of the burdens which are paid by others as an oath of allegiance. They must not give anything of their income but that which pleases them—they must not be offended, or disturbed, or coerced or compelled. Their judges should not be changed or prevented from accomplishing their offices, nor the monks disturbed in exercising their religious order, or the people of seclusion be stopped from dwelling in their cells.
No one is allowed to plunder these Christians, or destroy or spoil any of their churches, or houses of worship, or take any of the things contained within these houses and bring it to the houses of Islam. And he who takes away anything therefrom, will be one who has corrupted the oath of God, and, in truth, disobeyed His Messenger.
Jizya should not be put upon their judges, monks, and those whose occupation is the worship of God; nor is any other thing to be taken from them, whether it be a fine, a tax or any unjust right. Verily I shall keep their compact, wherever they may be, in the sea or on the land, in the East or West, in the North or South, for they are under My Protection and the testament of My Safety, against all things which they abhor.
No taxes or tithes should be received from those who devote themselves to the worship of God in the mountains, or from those who cultivate the Holy Lands. No one has the right to interfere with their affairs, or bring any action against them. Verily this is for aught else and not for them; rather, in the seasons of crops, they should be given a Kadah for each Ardab of wheat (about five bushels and a half) as provision for them, and no one has the right to say to them 'this is too much', or ask them to pay any tax.
As to those who possess properties, the wealthy and merchants, the poll-tax to be taken from them must not exceed twelve drachmas a head per year (i.e. about 200 modern day US dollars).
They shall not be imposed upon by anyone to undertake a journey, or to be forced to go to wars or to carry arms; for the Muslims have to fight for them. Do no dispute or argue with them, but deal according to the verse recorded in the Quran, to wit: ‘Do not dispute or argue with the People of the Book but in that which is best’ . Thus they will live favored and protected from everything which may offend them by the Callers to religion (Islam), wherever they may be and in any place they may dwell.
Should any Christian woman be married to a Muslim, such marriage must not take place except after her consent, and she must not be prevented from going to her church for prayer. Their churches must be honored and they must not be withheld from building churches or repairing convents.
They must not be forced to carry arms or stones; but the Muslims must protect them and defend them against others. It is positively incumbent upon every one of the follower of Islam not to contradict or disobey this oath until the Day of Resurrection and the end of the world."

"In the name of God, the Merciful, the Beneficent. This is what Muhammad, the Prophet and God’s Messenger, has written down for the people of Najran when he has the authority over all their fruits, gold, silver, crops and slaves. He has benevolently left them all that in return for 2,000 hullas every year, 1,000 to be given in the month of Rajab and 1,000 in the month of Safar. Each hulla is equal to one ounce [a measure equal to 4 dirhams]. The Najran are also required to provide accommodation and expenses for my messengers, for up to 20 days. None of my messengers shall be kept in Najran more than one month. They are also required to give, as a loan, 30 shields, 30 horses and 30 camels, in case of any disorder and treachery in Yemen. If anything is lost of the shields, horses or camels they loan to my messenger, it will remain owing by my messenger until it is given back. Najran has the protection of God and the pledges of Muhammad, the Prophet, to protect their lives, faith, land, property, those who are absent and those who are present, and their clan and allies. They need not change anything of their past customs. No right of theirs or their religion shall be altered. No bishop, monk or church guard shall be removed from his position. Whatever they have is theirs, no matter how big or small. They are not held in suspicion and they shall suffer no vengeance killing. They are not required to be mobilized and no army shall trespass on their land. If any of them requests that any right of his should be given to him, justice shall be administered among them. He who takes usury on past loans is not under my protection. No person in Najran is answerable for an injustice committed by another."


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Isaiah Anthony Wayne Jackson 6’2″ 175lb. BLM
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@Stephen
I see that this story has seen a lot of reprints since my first post on the morning of the 22nd.  I've checked the dateline on the 8 additional sources provided by various DARTers and confirmed all of these were published after I made my "can't find this story anywhere" comment although it was already flying around on Facebook (I try to never look at Facebook) and there was some local coverage on the night of the 21st.  The story was not widespread on Wednesday morning but is all over the place now.  If you call FOX News and The Washington Times mainstream media, then I guess your primary concern has been addressed.

I try not to be a "bicker-bicker-back-and forth on forum"  kind of poster.  I prefer to just express my opinion here and reserve the blow-by-blow analysis for debating.  Still, after all the repeated posts of story here, I think I just want to clarify that I still consider this story fake news and racist propaganda.

  • I've read what I can of publicly available information, including Isaiah Jackson's Twitter and Facebook feeds.  Jackson is 20 year old mixed race kid from the Dayton suburbs.    He's the father of twins and is apparently engaged to the mother of the boy in the photo.  He works at a fast food restaurant, has a criminal record (probably drugs, he makes a lot of cocaine jokes in his feeds), graduated from an alternative high school and doesn't seem to be heading towards college.
  • It looks to me like Jackson's photo was in response to the George Floyd Challenge meme.
    • "At least three teens have been arrested on suspicion of committing hate crimes for posting images apparently mimicking the death of George Floyd, and other similar images have made the rounds on Snapchat, Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook."
    • "Some images tagged as part of the challenge have unknown origins, and the precise intent of those who participated in them cannot be established."
    • Which is about where I'm at in terms of judgement of Jackson.  I have no information about Jackson's true intent but the impression I get is more of a sort of "fuck you, racists" kind of vibe.  I note that three days later:
      • The toddler's mom defends Jackson.
      • The toddler was unhurt (yeah, the kid looks like hes' crying but I've been around enough kids to know that crying is no indication of a 2 years old's mood or state of mind. 
      • The county sheriff's office has not charged him with anything after 4 days.  Jackson is in custody on a parole violation (again, probably drugs).
      • It seems to me more likely that the intent was joking and editorial play with his stepson and not some true intent to harm the child (which criminal intent would not likely be documented on social media, would it?)
    • The only piece of information suggesting Jackson is a BLM supporter is the  caption of the post which reads, "BLM, mf" Jackson posts some jokes about police violence so we might assume he's in accord w/ BLM but there's nothing on Jackson's social media to suggest he's any kind of activist or has gone to a rally or anything.  So, he's probably more of Cincinnati Bengals supporter than a BLM supporter but sure, he's probably a BLM supporter.  Making the subject of your news "a BLM supporter" based on a single "BLM mf" is scrounging for dirt on BLM.  If you've got to set the standard for BLM supporter as anybody who says "BLM mf" in a tweet in order to find somebody to decry as an immoral BLM supporter, well that tells me there's not much dirt to find in the ranks of people who actually march or rally or give money to or support BLM.  Calling Jackson a "BLM supporter" is fake news.
  • The story originates with Vincent James @ Red Elephants who disseminated the photo..
    • The Anti-Defamation League reports:
      • “The Red Elephants Vincent James” and “Vincent James”
        "The Red Elephants is a California-based extreme-right “media” entity headed by Vincent James Foxx. The site promotes conspiracy theories, anti-Semitic beliefs and white supremacist mantras. Beyond the virtual world, those associated with the Red Elephants have participated in rightwing and explicitly white supremacist rallies and demonstrations. “
    • Here's Vincent James after the Unite the Right Rally at Charlottesville, VA.
    • Here he is spreading fake news about the deadliest mass shooting in US history.
    • Right Wing Watch says:
      • "Among those speaking this year alongside Stewart include Vincent James Foxx, host of the far-right YouTube channel “Red Elephants,” who uses his platform to host prominent white nationalist speakers and sympathizers, bolster such white nationalist organizations as Identity Evropa, stoke racist fears about immigrants, advance “race war” narratives, and speak to aggrieved white people at-large. Foxx has appeared on neo-Nazi podcasts and once kept a Holocaust denier on his payroll who later ran the failed Senate campaign of neo-Nazi Patrick Little, whom Foxx once promoted.
        In a video uploaded to YouTube on August 17, Foxx cited former Trump political aide Omarosa Manigault’s slow-drip of confounding claims ahead of the release of her new book, including those purportedly backed up by her collection of damning tapes involving the Trump administration. Foxx used Manigault Newman’s revenge to argue against the administration hiring black people and in particular black women.
        "
    • I don't know if this picture was the result of some online conflict between Jackson and James but one wonders why else James would have this photo first?
      • In any case, if we decide to play the guessing game of true intentions, I'm going to give Jackson the benefit of the doubt as an unknown entity and I'm going to assume the black-hearted and entirely corrupt motivations of James based on a long history of living life as a nasty piece of shit.
      • We shouldn't be too happy to see FOX News peddling this crap.  The sole fact that this picture originates with a guy who makes up racist lies for a living should discredit the source beyond any credible publisher's capacity to forgive.  Since every other thing this guy has done before is a racist lie, let's assume this report is also fake news.
  • Let's note your second source,  nationalistreview.net should not be mistaken for the National Review, a respectable publication.
  • Do you consider your  OP characterization of Jackson, "savage with a wrap sheet [sic]" racist?
  • What are your beliefs concerning white supremacy in America?

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The "King of the hill medal" should be revised or removed, changed my mind.
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@Intelligence_06
I agree that putting a reward so far out of reach is de-motivating.  I'd be open to proposals for a new achievement system.
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Isaiah Anthony Wayne Jackson 6’2″ 175lb. BLM
Cannot find this story on MSM? 
or any other news site.  I can't find any version of this story on any news site.  We might note that tuskerdaily.com, which advertises itself as "for Trump and MAGA loving Americans" makes no claim of any kind towards providing real news or even telling the truth.  The site's disclaimer reads in part:

the website is provided “as is” and CWT Commodities Pte Ltd makes no representations or warranties in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information found on it. While the content of this site is provided in good faith, we do not warrant that the information will be kept up to date, be true and not misleading, or that this site will always (or ever) be available for use.

We do not warrant that the servers that make this website available will be error, virus or bug free and you accept that it is your responsibility to make adequate provision for protection against such threats. We recommend scanning any files before downloading.
We should note that  CWT Commodities Pte Ltd is a Singaporean conglomerate mostly in the warehousing business, with no offices or warehouses in the US.  Its curious behavior for a warehouse company but we should note that the Trump admin has been caught on multiple occasions lobbying for foreign influence in US campaigns so this is likely just some attempt to curry favor within the current US administration.  Interesting that fake news discrediting BLM is perceived by foreign agents as the fast track to approval within Trump's circle.

So, no, you won't find this story running on any website that is trying to maintain a reputation for accuracy or honesty.  It looks like some Singaporean dude took some posting on Facebook and created some BLM narrative around it.  Why use a Singaporean warehouser as a source for local news in Ohio?  Why would anybody want to see this treated as if it were anything but fake news and foreign interference in US politics?
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Professor Who Accurately Predicted 25 out of 27 Elections Predicts a Trump 2020 Win
What's remarkable is that such a simple model has such a good track record.  I'm not even sure that calling it a model is fair since its really just a restatement of two electoral principles.

  • An incumbent POTUS enjoys a major advantage, and
  • The candidate with the greater popular support in the New Hampshire and S. Carolina enjoys a major advantage.
So Norpoth published his forecast on March 2.  His model does not account for Coronavirus or its impact on the primaries.  Norpoth's model is fixed for this election so even dramatic shifts like Trump cancelling the election or  one or both candidates dying would not change the 91% odds favoring Trump. 

Norpoth's model reminds me of the old adage that an amateur can improve on a meteorologist's forecast by simply predicted that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather.  The amateur can beat the expert for long stretches of calculating small chances of rain or snow but when a hurricane or a tornado comes along, the meteorologist is ready with a warning while the amateur's model always misses.  Norpoth's model does not take account for any part of our current crisis, so I don't think it's telling us much.

The most interesting aspect of the article is that Norpoth's prediction was publicized on March 2nd and has been regurgitated as "news" by conservative outlets every couple of weeks in an effort to create an illusion of new findings, new data when in fact its just the same very basic model ricocheting in a vacuum of  optimism for Trumpists.

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Poker Mafia - DP2
oromagi                          JC Tran                                5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|JS, JC=4ofK=2V
X.warren42                        Chris Moneymaker
X.Discipulus_Didicit      Johnny Moss
TOWN
PressF4Respect           Doyle Brunson                5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|KC,QD=STR=BP
ILikePie5                         Daniel Negraneau        5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|2D, 4S=3ofK=COP
Crocodile                        Stu Ugnar                         5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|
BearMan                         Archie Karas                    5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|KH,3C=3ofK=COP
SupaDudz                      Phil Hellmuth                  5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|TD, 3D=FLSH=DOC
RationalMadman        Johnny Chan                   5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|XX,XX=3ofK=COP
Speedrace                     Phil Ivey                              5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|8H,7C=STR, CC
SCUM

UVC

Speed: 2/5 - 2x Oro

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Poker Mafia - DP2
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@ILikePie5
sorry, that's my cards this round.  My cards last round were JC, JS
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Poker Mafia - DP2
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@ILikePie5
Aight. So Croc, RM, and Speed are your 3 scumreads?
not really, no.  Both croc and RM seems like scum whether they is or aint do I'm withholding judgement.  Mostly, I 'm just pressuring for cards.

It seems like we have double call on Speed so I have hi confidence there.
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Poker Mafia - DP2
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@ILikePie5
square root of 10 is 3.1 so best guess is 3.  SInce the game is kill em all that might be adjusted but 4 seems way too much and 2 too little so I'm sticking w/ 3.
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Poker Mafia - DP2
So croc and RM are our only holdouts.  I wonder what they're talking about.
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Poker Mafia - DP2
oromagi                          JC Tran                                5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|9D, JC=4ofK=2V
X.warren42                        Chris Moneymaker
X.Discipulus_Didicit      Johnny Moss
TOWN
PressF4Respect           Doyle Brunson                5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|KC,QD=STR=BP
ILikePie5                         Daniel Negraneau        5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|2D, 4S=3ofK=COP
Crocodile                        Stu Ugnar                         5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|
BearMan                         Archie Karas                    5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|KH,3C=3ofK=COP
SupaDudz                      Phil Hellmuth                  5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|TD, 3D=FLSH=DOC
RationalMadman        Johnny Chan                   5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|XX,XX=3ofK=COP
Speedrace                     Phil Ivey                              5D,9D,WR|JH,9S|8H,7C=STR, CC
SCUM

UVC

Speed: 2/5 - 2x Oro
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Poker Mafia - DP2
--> @oromagi
There is no reason that double vote wouldn't also be a mafia role.
that's right although its far more rare and powerful. 

For Town, Doublevoter is a very mild power role. While it has the potential to stop Mafia from endgaming the Town when they make up 50% of the living players (because they do not control 50% of the votes), they will usually be targeted to die much earlier than then because of the above point. In addition, possessing two votes does not imply that the doublevoter has any special knowledge about who is scum, and Towns tend to get quite angry if a doublevoter tries to use its power to push its will on the other players. Thus, Doublevoter is an especially weak Town power role that is often treated as an obstacle by the Town.

For scum, Doublevoter is immensely valuable because it allows the faction to endgame the other players (that is, control 50% of the votes) earlier than usual. This is especially true if the scum's doublevote is hidden, as they can fool the Town into believing they have more chances to eliminate scum than they actually do. Thus, scum doublevoters are not unheard of but still remarkably powerful.

Can you see a game that risks multiple mafia double voters?  I can't tell if your fake claim is bad data or a dumb gambit but given your recent compulsive behavior in my regard, I am leaning towards the latter.
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Poker Mafia - DP2
I had JC JS and with the wild card and the JH in the river, I got 4 Jacks which gives me double vote. 

I see that RM is calling me scum but this town role is testable. 

VTL Speedrace
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Replacing the word "lynch" in mafia games
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@David
I generally oppose all censorship of words, including self-censorship of words with a historically unjust and racist association.  The word evolved to mean extrajudicial execution by mob and its use in the game is entirely appropriate.  Anybody who has played the game can attest that the game does not serve as an endorsement of the practice as the main dynamic establishes that mobs are bad at findings of guilt and more innocent lives are lost to lynching than guilty. 

We don't amend our past national crimes by cover-up.   Tearing down statues does not bring increased justice to ancient harms, instead it covers up evidence of those ancient harms, increasing the likelihood that future generations forget the cruel truths of our racist slave economies.  Likewise, pretending the word lynch is somehow inherently offensive brings no increased justice to those thousands of Americans stripped of their rights and victimized by racist mobs, rather it suppresses evidence of those crimes.  For example, lynch is a uniquely Southern word, from the notion of lynch laws, first claimed by Charles Lynch of Richmond during the Revolutionary War.  The original intent of lynch laws was national security- extrajudicial suppression of  enemy forces during a time of war.  This notion informs the evolution of the word to mostly mean extrajudicial murders of black men by white men.  The recent murder of Ahmaud Arbery is properly described as a lynching; white men acting extra-judicially but with some loose state sanction.  If we just call it murder, we lose several important connotations- the history of white on black violence in the South; the tacit approval of the mob, of the establishment; and we lose the old context of "enemy forces" which decidedly informs the white supremacist's outlook, even today.   The word lynch evokes a history that the word murder simply can't.  To suppress the word is to suppress that history.

Let's hold on to all the words of our rich language and learn their meaning and use in context.  Forbidding any word's use changes the word's meaning and use and distorts the context.  Let's remember the history of lynching is the US, the violence and injustice of that act, by preserving the word and its use in its context, including the games of Mafia we play here.
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bsh1 Memorial Profile Pick of the Week No. 23- LEVIATHAN SMILES
HOW to UNDERSTAND "JUSTIFIED" in this DEBATE

  • Let's recall that CON neglected to define JUSTIFIED in the description or in the opening round of the debate.
  • In fact, PRO's precise assertion has gotten increasingly fuzzy with each restatement of thesis.
    • CON's TOPIC="Americans Ought to Feel National Pride (PRO/CON)"
    • CON's RESOLUTION in DESCRIPTION: "Americans are justified in feeling national pride."
    • CON's R1: "I intend to defend the following statement: Considering the balance of US accomplishments, actions, and conditions throughout our past and in present day, Americans are unjustified in feeling national pride."
    • CON's R2"I confronted Pro's attempt to reject my balanced approach to assessing whether we should be proud of the United States."
    • CON's R3: "I have contended that this debate is about whether we deserve to feel national pride."
      • If we settle on CON's latest standard as "DESERVE  to feel", then we ought to note that CON never used the word DESERVE before R3.
      • If we use Oxford to define DESERVE as "do something or have or show qualities worthy of (reward or punishment)" we find that we're still on the hook ethically.  How do we evaluate whether all AMERICANS are worthy of collective punishment if we don't know what that punishment is ?
        • CON would say that any speeding ticket is justified so long as you were speeding, regardless of the consequences
        • PRO argues that if the penalty for speeding is death, then the speeding ticket is unjustified (or undeserved to use CON's standard)
In essence, we have two competing standards for what "justified" means in this debate. Pro has argued "justified" refers to the consequences, whereas I have argued that it refers to the facts of the case
  • PRO defined UNJUSTIFIED as ""not shown to be right or reasonable" citing Oxford in R2
      • PRO argues that PRO defined the term first and has used the term with consistency, while CON keeps offering new frames on thesis.  PRO's has argued that an absence of any patriotism would prove unreasonable and wrong for the US.  CON's latest standard, DESERVE, is nevertheless subject to tests of ethics (right and wrong) and reason.  Ethical considerations and a rational evaluation of consequences are just as much "facts of the case" as CON's list of accusations.
  • Wiktionary defines JUSTIFIED as "having  a justification"
    • JUSTIFICATION is then defined as "a reason, explanation, or excuse which provides convincing, morally acceptable support for behavior or for a belief or occurrence.
We ought to to favor my definition because it allows for a more straightforward understanding of this topic
  • Set aside CON's lately conceived dichotomy of "deserve vs desire" and just go by the dictionary definition.
    • Is it right or reasonable for every citizen to participate in the state without any justified pride in that participation, especially when some citizens are entirely innocent of the failures delegitimizing pride?
    • Is a belief that all Americans must be punished for the crimes of some Americans reasonably excused by the magnitude of some past harm?
    • Let's recall that desirable is CON's word, PRO calls National Pride essential citing the self-harms that accompany failed self esteem.
One can lack national pride and still arrive at the conclusion that a stronger, fairer, and more just democratic society should be pursued. One can observe the good and the bad in our country and resolve to increase the good and decrease the bad. They don't need to feel pride to do that.
    • one does not need to be proud of their nation to conclude that it is preferable that China and Russia be stymied in their attempts to spread authoritarianism
    • One does not need to be proud of their country to recognize that it is morally preferable for the state to continue functioning efficiently in service to the public good.
    • PRO calls this claim unfounded.  Most other nations have a shared ethnic and geographic history that forms a nationalistic bond older than modern forms of government but the US is a land of immigrants drawn together by an experimental idealism.  In our nation, Patriotism is the glue that holds us together.
      • The Founding Fathers thought so:
        • Benjamin Rush argued:
          •  "Patriotism is as much a virtue as justice, and is as necessary for the support of societies as natural affection is for the support of families."
        • President George Washington reminded us:
          • "Citizens by birth or choice of a common country, that country has a right to concentrate your affections. The name of American, which belongs to you, in your national capacity, must always exalt the just pride of Patriotism, more than any appellation derived from local discriminations."
      • Encyclopædia Britannica likewise calls Patriotism the glue of democracy:
        • "At the heart of .... patriotism lies the belief that to be stable, democratic societies require a strong sense of allegiance on the part of their citizens. Not only does the high degree of pluralism that characterizes contemporary societies potentially give rise to tensions and disagreements among citizens that may destabilize the polity, modern democratic states committed to a degree of equality rely on the willingness of citizens to make sacrifices for the common good.   Hence, in the eyes of advocates....of patriotism, stable democratic societies require a strong sense of solidarity.
       
    it's not as if pride in the nation is the only source of emotional motivation Americans can draw on. As Pro has pointed out, we can be proud of the minorities who persevered and fought for their rights. We can be proud of our liberties today. We can be proud of the fact that we have peaceful and fair elections. We can use these sources of pride to continue pursuing the public good. (we can also draw on sources of shame as motivators).
    • CON concedes the debate again.  CON defined NATIONAL PRIDE as "satisfaction arising from the accomplishments, behavior, and condition of the USA in the past and present." 
      • American civil rights, liberties, elections, etc fall well within the circle of US accomplishments.  If we are justifiably proud of these accomplishments  as CON asserts, then we are experiencing NATIONAL PRIDE by CON's definition and CON disproved.
    What Does it Mean to Have National Pride?

    The first question - which is the question we're addressing in this debate - asks us to consider the country in its totality (this is the "balanced approach" my opponent has maligned me for. I did not shift goalposts. See my R1 conclusion). The second question only asks to consider parts of the nation.
     Again, CON is redefining a term defined by CON at the outset of this debate.  CONs multiple iterations on thesis did not ask us to consider "the country in its totality,"  which word does not appear in CON's argument until R2.  CON asked us to consider AMERICANS.  Americans are 330 million individual parts of America who are individually capable of feeling shame and pride in one another and ourselves simultaneously.  There is no American monolith that can only feel one way about itself.

    The resolution that "AMERICANS are JUSTIFIED in FEELING NATIONAL PRIDE" stands proven. 

    In R2, CON agreed with PRO that Americans are justified in feeling ambivalent, including feelings of pride.
    In R3, CON agreed with PRO that Americans are justified in their pride of civil rights, free elections,  and liberty.
    VOTERS should accept CON's confirmation of PRO's position as well as PRO's argument and find for PRO in this debate.

    Please VOTE PRO!



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    Poker Mafia - DP1
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    @Vader
    Like I said, I meant cards. I'm talking about Disc's analysis. 
    Like I said,

    "Ninja! no wait! Cop!"
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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    -->
    @Vader
    --> @oromagi
    Yea but the deck analysis doesn't make sense. It was already mod confirmed that there are two different list and roles. Disc is acting like I knew that and he didn't. It's shocking
    But mod said nothing about two different decks of cards.  OP says, "Cards are based on a 54 card deck with 2 WILD JOKERS."  We can't tell from that whether scum is working from the same 54 cards or a different deck.  That's important because if scum is working with the same deck, they don't have to worry about getting their cards CC'd, right.

    In post #244 you say

    "So none of the cards are the same in each deck? There different combos. Interesting"

    Each deck.  More than one.  Which strongly suggests you know there are two decks, which only scum can know.


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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    oromagi                          JC Tran
    TOWN
    PressF4Respect           Doyle Brunson
    ILikePie5                         Daniel Negraneau
    Speedrace                     Phil Ivey
    RationalMadman        Johnny Chan
    warren42                        Chris Moneymaker
    Crocodile                        Stu Ugnar
    Discipulus_Didicit      Johnny Moss
    BearMan                         Archie Karas
    SupaDudz                      Phil Hellmuth
    SCUM

    UVC

    VTNL(4/6) - Press, bear, Supa, croc,
    Supa (2/6) - oro, Disc,
    Croc (1/6) - RM,

    Not voting: warren, Speed, pie,

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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    Oromagi is not trying at all this game, this is not his town meta
    The only meta I have on RM so far is that he spends most of his energy insisting oromagi must be scum until he gets himself lynched.  In 13 reasons, he was scum & got himself lynched DP1.  In MCU villains he was town BP & got himself lynched DP1.  So, nothing alignment indicative  or insightful about the behavior, just some kind of irrational preoccupation.   Now he says my gameplay has changed while failing to remember that he's blocked me (again) and therefore can't receive  any direct replies to his oft repeated and invariable read on me.

    I will note, however, that I am resolving my debate screw up yesterday (I accidentally published my list of reads as a closing agument) which means I'm having to compose a closing argument vs. a top ranked debater post-haste.  My attention will be focused there but I will try to keep up with proceedings.

    I'm ok with revealing cards (in fact I think CC'ing cards is probably our best scum hunting weapon).

    I'm still ok with VTL'ing Supa.  Honestly, I find Supa hard to read since he pretty consistently says something profoundly incriminating every game.  He'll say "I am ninja" then later  say "lol, I used the wrong word, I meant  to say I am cop" and when you lynch him he flips cop.  I'd say there only a 30% chance that he's scum but that's better than anybody else and if he is scum then we confirm two separate decks of cards (which makes CC'ing cards more likely and useful)

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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    I also just posted my reads accidentally in my closing argument in the patriotism debate.   uh-oh
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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    -->
    @Speedrace
    --> @ILikePie5 @oromagi @PressF4Respect
    Thoughts on #324?
    I'm thinking pretty much the same as yesterday

    "diminished activity is one of the foremost scum tells I know.  It's not an automatic give-away but if you actually metered number of posts I bet 80-90% of players post less as scum than they do as town.   Supa is the number one poster on this site by a wide margin.  He is the most active DARTer of all.  Yet here his activity has dropped and he either hasn't seen that he's the last non claimant for hours or he's hesitating.  Either way, he should be pressured to fall in line and if he doesn't or can't, perhaps we've detected something actionable."

    Supa's had at least two rounds of comments since I posted this and still is holding out on character claim.  We agreed and expect that character claim has no real diagnostic value in this game so why is Supa holding out?  Why so disengaged.?  I think Supa is increasingly suspicious and actionable.  I also note Bear's defense, which makes no sense.  Why would any town defend another player's inactivity?  Why create some false dichotomy of inactive vs lurking as if the distinction is detectable or of investigative value.


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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    oromagi                          JC Tran
    TOWN
    PressF4Respect           Doyle Brunson
    ILikePie5                         Daniel Negraneau
    Speedrace                     Phil Ivey
    RationalMadman        Johnny Chan
    warren42                        Chris Moneymaker
    Crocodile                        Stu Ugnar
    Discipulus_Didicit      Johnny Moss
    BearMan                         Archie Karas
    SupaDudz
    SCUM

    UVC

    Supa (2/6) - oro, Disc,
    VTNL(2/6) - Press, bear,
    Croc (1/6) - RM,

    Not voting: SupaDudz, warren, Crocodile, Speed, pie,


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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    -->
    @PressF4Respect
    -> @PressF4Respect
    Please tell me what lurking is.

    :54  = lurk
    2:57 = double lurk





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    Poker Mafia - DP1
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    @PressF4Respect
    Please tell me what lurking is.
    :54  = lurk
    2:57 = double lurk




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    Poker Mafia - DP1
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    @BearMan
    Like you said. We shouldn't lynch for a bad reason. Inactivity in the site is a bad reason, lurking, on the other hand is not.
    diminished activity is one of the foremost scum tells I know.  It's not an automatic give-away but if you actually metered number of posts I bet 80-90% of players post less as scum than they do as town.   Supa is the number one poster on this site by a wide margin.  He is the most active DARTer of all.  Yet here his activity has dropped and he either hasn't seen that he's the last non claimant for hours or he's hesitating.  Either way, he should be pressured to fall in line and if he doesn't or can't, perhaps we've detected something actionable.
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    Poker Mafia - DP1
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    @BearMan
    Added 07.12.20 07:08PM
    --> @oromagi
    Unless Supa is lurking we shouldn't lynch him.
    because?

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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    right now?  Supadudz as the only non-claimant
    VTL Supadudz

    oromagi                          JC Tran
    TOWN
    RationalMadman        Johnny Chan
    Crocodile                        Stu Ugnar
    Speedrace                     Phil Ivey
    PressF4Respect           Doyle Brunson
    ILikePie5                         Daniel Negraneau
    warren42                        Chris Moneymaker
    BearMan                         Archie Karas
    Discipulus_Didicit      Johnny Moss
    SupaDudz
    SCUM

    I've lost track on VC


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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    Every game we convince ourselves that we can figure out scum based on subtle tells in behavior.  Every game we lynch the same guys based on our incredibly honed senses and every game we get it wrong.  I am trying to learn this lesson but its so hard to be patient in the early rounds.

    for now, I'm fine with perusing the reasons why Supa and DD are holding out on character claims.

    It seems likely that we are going to have  a huge amount of data round2, although I'm not sure I've got a handle on the dynamics of this variation yet.   It seems wildly unbalanced to me. 
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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    UNVOTE

    oromagi                          JC Tran
    TOWN
    RationalMadman        Johnny Chan
    Crocodile                        Stu Ugnar
    Speedrace                     Phil Ivey
    PressF4Respect           Doyle Brunson
    ILikePie5                         Daniel Negraneau
    warren42                        Chris Moneymaker
    SupaDudz
    BearMan                         Archie Karas
    Discipulus_Didicit
    SCUM

    UVC


    Press (1/6) - RM,
    VTNL(1/6) - Press,
    Bear (1/6)- DD

    Not voting: SupaDudz, warren, Crocodile, disc, speed,


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    Poker Mafia - DP1
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    @PressF4Respect
     I claimed right off the bat .  Post #85.  non-binary messiah = JC Tran



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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    oromagi
    TOWN
    RationalMadman       Johnny Chan
    Crocodile
    Speedrace                     Phil Ivey
    PressF4Respect          Doyle Brunson
    ILikePie5
    warren42                      Chris Moneymaker
    SupaDudz
    BearMan
    AWOL
    Discipulus_Didicit
    SCUM

    UVC

    Disc (2/6) -  oro, pie
    Press (1/6) - RM,
    VTNL(1/6) - Press,

    Not voting: SupaDudz, warren, Crocodile, disc, Bear, speed,


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    Poker Mafia - DP1
    oromagi
    TOWN
    RationalMadman
    Crocodile
    Speedrace
    PressF4Respect
    ILikePie5
    warren42
    SupaDudz
    AWOL
    Discipulus_Didicit
    BearMan
    SCUM

    UNVOTE
    VTL DISC

    UVC

    Disc (2/6) -  oro, pie
    Press (1/6) - RM,
    VTNL(1/6) - Press,

    Not voting: SupaDudz, warren, Crocodile, disc, Bear, speed,





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