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@PressF4Respect
--> @WaterPhoenixWhy would anyone in their right minds, playing as doctor, CC a fake doctor claim? That's suicide.
It's suicide but trading a PR for a certain scum lynch is a good trade in DP1. If there is a DOCTOR counterclaim they should do so now, I agree with WP.
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@PressF4Respect
--> @oromagiJust to ask again, you think people making scumslips means they look more town?
more like most stupid stuff is not a scum slip
croc's unforced declarations are (probably) bad play but they aren't a scum slip.
croc voting for himself twice is (probably) bad play but that's not a scum slip
a scum slip is a message typed in the forum that was intended for the mafia chat
something like " I think you should do the kill tonight" or
"do you want me to pick a fight with Press?"
sometimes stupid game play might indicate mafia but my experience (note that Speed disagrees & Speed is a much better player than I am) is that most stupidity is town and that the mafia chat serves as a check vs very bad game play. So, yes most bad game play is more likely to be town.
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@ILikePie5
Pie-
pls don't mistake post #645 as a vote from me. I was quoting croc and should have thought more about how that would look.
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Oromagi
SupaDudz
Speedrace
LittleCookie
RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
SCUM
UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT
Croc (6/7) - Simply, Press, Speed, Supa, Bear, Croc
Warren (2/7) - Oromagi, RM
Speedrace (1/7) - User
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@Crocodile
VTL Croc.
It is hard not to credit you for this lynch, whatever the result.
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@Speedrace
Is anyone else's justification that weak? 😂😂 because that's WEAK
ive already said so
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@Speedrace
--> @oromagiYou're DRASTICALLY exaggerating how smart Mafia is. I've never seen a team edit each other's posts or even to over what they'll say. By your theory, Supa would never be scum with all of his dumb gambits because his teammates would always caution him against them, but that's clearly not true. 1. Croc never ran his ideas past the other scum or 2. He did and when they said no, he did it anyway. I think 1 is much more likely but either way, Mafia is not infallible because they can carefully think over the stuff they do
This from the guy with a something like a 5 game streak as scum. I can't speak to your gameplay experiences but mine as mafia are generally highly collaborative. Supa is a classic example to me- I always think he's scum and the one time I didn't think he was scum he was scum with you, right? I am not confident that croc is doc but I do think the odds that he's doc is much better than the odds he's scum. When people make bad choices in this game my observation is that they are way more often town than scum (after accounting for the population difference)
I'm not saying you must be wrong but I do think you are underestimating the power of collaboration here
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If croc proves town, then the odds for scum substantially increase for this list:
Simply, Supa, Press, Speed, Bear
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@WaterPhoenix
@PressF4Respect
Thoughts?
I think it is more likely than not that we stupidly outed our doctor because players think they can figure out who is scum and who is town based on chats. If croc was scum, his scum partners would have advised him against character claiming early and they would have advised against role claiming doc. Now, if croc doesnt die NP1 town will certainly want to lynch him DP2.
Mafia is much smarter than town because mafia is three people thinking together, editing each other's worst ideas and sharing each other's best ideas. That's the whole point of the game. If people are doing dumb shit in DP1 it is almost certainly because they are town and not because they are scum.
My strong advice is that we bandwagon warren starting now. Either he joins and helps or he dies and we have at least eliminated useless clutter. Let's hope that there's some protection for Croc tonight and let's be sure to pay close attention to croc's present bandwagon because the odds are fairly high that scum is in there.
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@Vader
Read WP post about Ani and give some comments. I think WP has a point
I think determining alignment based on character is tricky. I would not make any assumptions until we've seen a few of Pie's descriptions and how closely character dictates justification.
I want to vtl warren until he joins or dies. That is my priority. If warren joins we can discuss other lynches. If warren does not join, I want to lynch him first.
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@Crocodile
be sure to note that you have not un-vtl'd yourself.
There are some roles that get empowered by getting lynched. Is it possible you're trying to get lynched?
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@WaterPhoenix
oh shit what they're an antagonist? i wont reveal my char or role but im one of those guys and im town i swear
OK. thanks. swearing does not improve your claim but volunteering helpful data does.
So- if we accept WP's claim then at least one antagonist character has a town role, disproving RM's irrational town confirmation of croc/ani
Any other players want to advise they are on this list (without getting specific please)? Keep in mind we will probably need to claim in DP2 or 3 so being on this list without advising now will increase scumminess singnificantly
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@WaterPhoenix
--> @oromagiYeah, and that's what I thought he was saying. The alignment in the show is the alignment in the game was rat's theory. Everyone on that list confirmed that theory and you just did too. While it is possible that the theme is something else, good vs bad is the most likely theme.
seems way too obvious to me....
Let's see if we can test this.
Here is a list of Season 4 antagonists
Without revealing character or role, can anybody advise that they are an antagonistic character but also town?
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@Crocodile
--> @oromagiProblem is, i'm not vtling myself. I'm currently not voting.
hard to keep up
6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
11. LittleCookie
4. RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
SCUM
UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Bear
Croc (1/7) - Supa
Warren42 (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
Oromagi (1/7)- RM
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6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
11. LittleCookie
4. RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
SCUM
UVC
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Bear
Croc (1/7) - Croc, Supa
Warren42 (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
Oromagi (1/7)- RM
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@RationalMadman
-> @oromagiI am voting you if you didn't know.
that's right
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@Crocodile
If you are town, then don't vtl yourself. Instead, help to pressure warren and then let's come to some agreement about the most productive lynch tonight.
If you are scum, you're fine as is.
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6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
11. LittleCookie
4. RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
SCUM
UVC
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Bear
Croc (1/7) - Croc, Supa
Warren42 (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
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@simplybeourselves
-
@Gamemod .... is self-voting allowed?
Yes but it is almost never a good idea.
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@RationalMadman
--> @oromagiScum slip you say I'm voting myself when it's croc, you know we're both town, major slip
oops, sorry
I just saw the melodrama and assumed it was you
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6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
11. LittleCookie
4. RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
SCUM
UVC
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Crocodile, Bear
RM (1/7) - RM
Warren42 (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
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@skittlez09
-> @oromagiyeh i aint none of those characters
good to know, thanks
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@RationalMadman
--> @oromagilynch me let's do this properly, I will claim before I'm hammered if I lose and tell my full reads (some nuances I've hidden as I don't want mafia to know who I read as pr rather than scum and vice versa) let's go you vs me day one lynch, I want to see who joins which side and why.
I don't play that way. Your analysis is irrational, your gameplay is scummy but that doesn't make you scum. Dividing town into feuding factions is how scum wins. Let's work together to pressure warren and then come to some agreement about the most productive lynch.
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@warren42
As always, you are the final holdout.
Join or die.
VTL warren42
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@skittlez09
-> @oromagishoot srry man my pc has been acting up
good to see you.
UNVOTE
Please confirm immediately that you are not
or that your role is not MILLER
don't make any character/role claims yourself unless circumstance demands it
then catch up and participate when you can. We must act before tomorrow morning
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@warren42
@skittlez09
Your absence is hurting town. Please join. If you don't have time to read the whole DP, please at least confirm that your character/roles don't refute present claims.
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@simplybeourselves
An important revelation. Not all players would be upfront about that late realization but it helps town's analysis of your gameplay to do so, so thanks. Note that my reads have links to the fanwiki for "13 Reasons Why" for character claims but that same wiki has valuable summaries of plot, dynamics, etc.
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@simplybeourselves
It's one thing to claim as Miller (I got Miller and Mason mixed up) .... but that so many are insisting on cllaiming on day one is quite odd to me.
Most folks should not be claiming DP1, therefore town should not expect claims except under specific circumstances.
Town should read a couple of mafia wikis regarding your role- many include some advice about playing that role. There are a few roles where it makes sense to jump out right at the start. MILLER happens to be one of these.
I'd say that it would be typical of town to agree to bring out character claims in DP2 and then most or all roleclaims DP3 but circumstances always dictate.
As I've said before, the value of claiming is to try to verify yourself as town. That value is seriously diminished when there are inactives like warren and cookie because we don't know if they would contradict any claim. Therefore, I recommend that we focus on activity DP1. Scum is strongly motivated to make credible claims early and buy some town cred. The fewer players out there checking the validity of early claims, the stronger scum's advantage.
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@BearMan
--> @CrocodileIf I was mafia, why would I defend non-mafia?
because if mafia only defended other mafia it would rapidly become apparent who was mafia. Acting as if you were town is essential to mafia survival.
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Debates: 73
Forum posts: 2,568
6
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11
Added 06.22.20 08:27AM
6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
4. RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
11. LittleCookie
SCUM
UVC
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Crocodile, Bear
Oro (1/7) - RM
LittleCookie (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
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@Vader
@Crocodile
I think that Croc is making a fake claim here or was given a fake claim. I believe Pie gives fake claims out in his games and I believe he uses this here for no reason. Not to mention with the fake claim he gives is only a half claim with no role justificationReally? Ani is a main character.
...and importantly has not been cc'd. It would be very risky to fake claim Ani with only on other claim made since the liklihood of cc is very high. This is another reason to prioritize inactivity. We can't say with confidence that there is no counter claim until we have confidence that all of town is paying attention.
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6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
4. RationalMadman
AWOL
9. Warren
11. LittleCookie
SCUM
UVC
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Crocodile, Bear
Oro (1/7) - RM
LittleCookie (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
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@WaterPhoenix
Hmmm, a lot of people seem to be agreeing with Rat's theme theory. Since the idea is out there we should make a chart to see if everyone's char relates with their role and are good guys.chart:1. ratman- says character relates with his role (is male)2. bearman- says character relates with his role3. supadudz- says character relates with role4. press- character relates with role5. wp- my character has to do with my role
That's not Ratman's theory tho. RM's saying that because character relates to role, alignment is verified by role.
Continuing the Star Wars mafia analogy, it would make sense that Boba Fett is a tracker but it would be a mistake to assume that Boba Fett can't be town based on character claim.
I have a justification that links my character to role but just because that character is one of good guys in the show, I wouldn't want town to blithely assume that I am therefore town.
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Ani is seriously confirmed town, if you are Ani do not 'soft cc' it is never going to be believed later. You are the only player other than me (well Bearman and Speedrace indirectly agreed with me) that has admitted that characters in the show are linked to their in-game alignment.
I'll give up on trying to convince RM but will just remind the town that no character claim is exculpatory.
If we are playing Star Wars mafia and one player claims Obi Wan while another player claims Grand Moff Tarkin, there is no gameplay value to assuming that Moff is scum or Obi Wan is town because you don't know the theme division. Maybe the theme is rebels vs. empire and Obi Wan is town but maybe the theme is jedis vs. non-jedis and Obi Wan, Luke, and Darth Vader are the scum team. That's part of the fun of figuring out theme.
Now, it might be reasonable to expect that Obi Wan is more likely to be a power role than Moff although even that is not guaranteed.
Assuming that scum/town alignment can be discerned from character claim is a classic rookie mistake, please disregard RM's analysis in this regard.
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@Speedrace
Now good night, I'll be back in when I wake up though
Whether you are town are scum it is comforting to me just to have somebody actually acknowledge the same base reality
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Not a lot of reasoning from RM here- seems quite agitated and I don't believe him when he seems to not understand my caution re: assuming alignment.
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@RationalMadman
--> @oromagiDude wtf are you talking about? Literally what are you saying? How can Ani be scum, explain it.
I did explain in the post that you are responding to.
"some scum will risk the exposure to trade for town cred and some in some games scum are able to figure out the split (or are even given safe claims)."
Why would Croc knowingly claim such a main character if she is scumsided? There's be no motive at all to claim her so early unless it was to confirm himself as town.
Or to gain cred from players who leap to conclusions based on their own PM (to be clear, I don't think that's a likely scenario in this case, just not an impossible scenario)
I don't know wtf you are saying, genuinely. I did not scumtell by saying that he is confirmed town, you are scumtelling by trying to cast doubt on a blatant fact by saying some complete nonsense like Pie is sexist or some shit in how he split the characters. I know from my own character description as well as what Press revealed about his own miller description, that the characters are being assigned alignment and roles based on their general description in the show.
No you don't. I am telling you now not to make that mistake.
This I know purely from my own combined with Press, there is no fucking scumtell or secret knowledge required to know how the split is done. Why would Press split them by gender?
No you don't know. I am not saying the thematic split is gender I am saying the thematic split could be anything. If you think you can assume alignment based on character this early on, you are very likely mistaken.
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@RationalMadman
--> @oromagiLOL! How can Ani be scum? Search her Wiki description and explain to me how she can be scumsided.I don't know if you are trolling or you just think too literally but there's so much nuance that there are indeed characters that are 100% town or scum and there's no way Pie would make Ani scumsided.
Because the plot and characters of the show don't necessarily have any connection to the theme of the mafia game. In fact, the least likely theme division is good guys vs. bad guys on the show. That would be obvious. The theme division could be anything. It could be female characters are scum vs. male characters are town.... anything. Assuming Ani is town because Ani is a central protagonist is a terrible mistake but I am 99% sure you already know this.
What we can deduce is Croc is likely telling the truth about being Ani because that character is very likely to be included and if Croc was not Ani a counterclaim should have been likely. Scum is less likely to character claim early than town because it likely locks them in before the thematic split is determined. Still, some scum will risk the exposure to trade for town cred and some in some games scum are able to figure out the split (or are even given safe claims).
Croc making character claim increases town cred for the moment but in no way should be mistaken for some kind of confirmation.
Again, you very likely know this already which means this is a ruse. Why the ruse?
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@RationalMadman
The fact that Crocodile outed with a character that is guaranteed to be town
Town doesn't know what the thematic split is so there are no roles that are "guaranteed to be town" Mafia could be the good guys in the show, female characters, anything. If you know which roles are guaranteed to be town it is only because you are scum.
on top of Pie outing
I don't know what this means. Did Pie mod confirm something that I missed?
means that we, as a town, gain very little from tonight as there is 90%-100% certainty that Mafia is simply going to target the confirmed townies and thus both the death give us no significant information and on top of that since miller is a role,
I'm skeptical of this analysis. MILLER means there is a likely COP. MILLER is no threat. If I was scum I'd be trying to kill the COP but I might say that Mafia will likely target MILLER as a ploy to put investigative roles on the wrong track.
reports from investigative roles are likely to involve incorrect vindication (this is also a theme of the series) thus, we actually gain less overall by no-lynching than risking it. Even the pressure of the lynch and seeing people react to it is part of the information-gathering process that benefits town far more than mafia.
Still on cookie for no show. I am watching Speed's lynchtrain with interest but I don't oppose lynching Speed at present activity level
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6. Oromagi
TOWN
8. Crocodile Ani Achola
1. Speedrace
3. User_2006
12. SimplyBeOurselves
7. BearMan
4. RationalMadman
10. WaterPhoenix
5. SupaDudz
AWOL
9. Warren
11. LittleCookie
SCUM
UVC
Speedrace (3/7) - User, Ratman, Crocman, Bearman
LittleCookie (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
Oro (1/7) - Supa
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@Vader
--> @oromagiI’ve presented the same level activity bursts that you may do in a game. You then are labeled town, yet you VTL me despite this activity bursts is the same as you. I’m not arguing inactivity is good, I’m just pointing out hypocrisy in your vote against me
That's not hypocrisy, that's game play. I switch up my activity level to try to make myself hard to read. I sus'd you because it is not like you to fail to post on the first page of any game.
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@simplybeourselves
Well, I absolutely find it suspicious that somebody would announce their role unprovoked. If they're town then they make themselves vulnerable and if they're scum they have reason to lie about it. I can't think of a good reason as a townie for announcing your role from the beginning of day one without provocation. So I suspect that PressF4Respect is scum.What's more, he also claimed that my wishing everybody on my team good luck was a way to look town. But that's clearly false because "good luck everybody on my team" is an alignment-neutral statement.VOTE: PressF4RespectAnd I'm getting a townie vibe from RationalMadman.I don't have any other reads yet.
Please note that I linked to the role description in my reads. If you follow that link you will read this under MILLER play advice
If you are a Miller, there are two schools of thought about optimal play:
The first school of thought is that you should claim immediately, ideally in your opening post. This ensures that the Cop will not waste an investigation on you. It becomes more likely that you will be lynched or shot by a Vigilante, however; otherwise, it would be too easy for Mafia to fakeclaim Miller as well. This is by far the most common way to play the role on mafiascum.net.
The second school of thought is that you should not claim, but should play in such a way as to not get investigated; ideally, you would get yourself killed at Night. If investigated, however, you should expect to get lynched.
PressF is following the "by far the most common way to play the role" so I'd encourage you to drop any suspicion based only on that choice.
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@Vader
doesn’t make any sense to me when people have town read him despite his lack of activity in games. It doesn’t make sense to me.
exactly. why should scum risk joining when people will town read inactives?
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@RationalMadman
-> @oromagiAnd if we lynch a PR we just shrug it off?
Yes, although I can't think of a game where we actually policy lynched for inactivity in DP1, much less a PR. The target always pops in before the lynch, suggesting that most inactives, town or scum, are still monitoring to some degree without logging in.
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@RationalMadman
--> @oromagiHow are you getting probability increase vs decrease based on players literally being AFK? Scum can be active, surely your logical system of reading realises that.
My observation is that very inactive players are more often scum than players that behave scummy (particularly in games with lots of new players). Yes the odds are better than even that warren or cookie are town and away from keyboard but it is nevertheless true that the odds that one of those two is scum is higher than the odds of detecting an active scum by chat. Yes, scum are more motivated than town to be active but scum are also more motivated to be careful and generally enjoy the advantage of previewing their posts with partners so early detection is much harder than we'd like to believe. On the other hand, laying low is a surprisingly effective strategy for scum. The less you say, the less town thinks of you and the more town squabbles and divides into camps.
I'm not saying that the probability increase favors town, its still far less than 50/50 I'm just saying the probability that a lurker is scum is higher than the scum odds for an active who who says something suspicious.
As an example, speed has been scum probably 4 out of the last 5 games I've played with him and he seldom posts until he has to. Supa has one been scum once or twice but he always says something that convinces me he's scum, usually sooner rather than later. I don't know have any real info, I know the odds are that both the quiet guy and the seemingly scummy guy are still more likely town than not but the odds that the quiet guy is actual scum is better relative to the seemlingly scummy guy.
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@BearMan
--> @oromagiWhy do you suggest that LittleCookie is mafia?
that would be an overstatement. My observation is that very inactive players are more often scum than players that behave scummy (particularly in games with lots of new players)
DP1 is too early for claims or observations, its just a lot of people saying "what do you think of player x? what do you think of what player y said?" looking for scumslips but in fact most apparent scum slips are just town mistakes or irrational town play. The odds of mislynch are very, very high.
VTNL is one workaround but I believe the increased odds of scum being in the inactive pool recommends that we VTL inactives until they participate, up to and including lynching. SInce we are likely to mislynch anyway, far better to eliminate a non-informational inactive than a scummy seeming active player.
We're down to two total inactives: Warren and cookie. Warren always plays the no info slug and is stubborn about it, while my guess is that cookie is a little more susceptible to pressure. Therefore, VTL cookie.
Until both cookie and Warren join, I am 100% willing to lynch either and unwilling to VTNL. Then I'd be willing to pressure inactives. If activity improves without further real insight towards the end of day, I might join a VTNL.
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@PressF4Respect
it's there in my reads
SupaDudz
Warren
LittleCookie
That's only based on slowness to table and I apply less than 15% confidence to any one read.
I don't hold much to personality reading based on posts and in my experience most scum hunting is pretty deluded- mostly it just keeps town from clearly evaluating the few cogent facts available.
As RM says, I'm not that good at mafia.
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@PressF4Respect
> @oromagiWhat do you think of the conversation between me and Water?
noise
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@PressF4Respect
He says he was offended by my use of third person grammar....honestly that was his complaint.
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