Total posts: 8,696
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first things first
VTL Supadudz
Please pass the rolls, Papa
Please pass the butter, Mother
Please pass the knife, wife
Please pass the gun, son
Please pass the vest, guest
Please pass the broken biscuit
Can the mechanic fix it?
(Don't invite no sabotage;
that stinker cuts the fromage)
Please pass the rolls, Papa
Please pass the rolls.
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Mike Hughes (1956 – February 22, 2020), popularly known as "Mad" Mike Hughes, was an American limousine driver, daredevil, and flat Earth conspiracy theorist known for flying in self-built rockets. He died on February 22, 2020, while filming a stunt for an upcoming Science Channel television series.Hughes lived in Apple Valley, California. In 2002 he set a Guinness world record with a 103-foot (31 m) jump in a Lincoln Town Car stretch limousine. Hughes stated during an interview with the Associated Press in 2018 that he had plans to run for governor of California.According to the Associated Press, Hughes built his first crewed rocket on January 30, 2014, and flew 1,374 feet (419 m) in just over one minute over Winkelman, Arizona. According to CBC News, Hughes collapsed after the landing and it took him three days to recover. Hughes stated that the injuries suffered from the flight put him in a walker for two weeks. There was no video of Hughes entering the rocket and there were doubts that he was in it when it launched.In 2016 Hughes launched a failed fundraising attempt for a rocket that earned $310. After professing his belief in a flat Earth later that year, Hughes gained support within the flat-Earth community. His post-flat-Earth fundraising campaign made its $7,875 goal. He had said he intended to make multiple rocket journeys, culminating in a flight to outer space, where he believed he would be able to take a picture of the entire Earth as a flat disc. He claimed in November 2017 that the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) had given him verbal permission more than a year prior to launch his rocket, pending approval from the Federal Aviation Administration. However, a BLM spokesman said its local field office had no record of speaking to Hughes at the time. According to the BLM, after seeing some news articles about the planned launch, a BLM representative reached out to Hughes with concerns. The rocket launch was originally scheduled for the weekend of November 25, 2017; Hughes then rescheduled for December 2, 2017, blaming ongoing difficulties in obtaining permissions. Hughes moved his launch pad 4 miles (6.4 km) so that he could take off and land on private property; however, the BLM maintained he still needed to fill out permits. Hughes defiantly stated the dispute would not stop him flying: "I'm a daredevil. I'm not much for authority or rules."The untested initial rocket was intended to reach a speed of 500 miles per hour (800 km/h); further rocket trips, which were to be launched from a balloon 20 miles (32 km) up, were intended to reach above the atmosphere into outer space. Hughes acknowledged there were risks, telling the Associated Press: "It's scary as hell. But none of us are getting out of this world alive." A fundraising campaign to cover the costs of the delay raised around $100 of its $10,000 goal. On February 3, 2018, Hughes live-streamed another attempted launch, but the rocket steam release malfunctioned and the launch was aborted.A successful launch on March 24, 2018, resulted in his reaching a height of 1,875 feet (572 m) and a hard landing in the Mojave Desert. The steam-powered rocket launched at a sharp angle to avoid falling back to Earth on public land, and landed about 1,500 feet (460 m) away from the launch point. Hughes' team reported a maximum speed of 350 mph (563 km/h). Hughes reported no serious injury from the landing
Hughes planned to again launch himself in a rocket on August 10, 2019, however, mechanical troubles postponed the launch. The following weekend, the launch was again postponed and Hughes was treated for heat exhaustion.
On February 22, 2020, Hughes (at the age of 64) was confirmed dead following the crash-landing of a self-built rocket he was piloting. During launch, the rocket’s parachute, which was designed for landing, appeared to deploy early and detach from the craft. The launch event was being filmed for the Science Channel television series Homemade Astronauts, in which Hughes was to star.Following Hughes' death, a public relations representative stated "We used flat Earth as a PR stunt... Flat Earth allowed us to get so much publicity that we kept going! I know he didn’t believe in flat Earth and it was a schtick."
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Every time some atheist trots out the tired "prayer experiment", I can't help but doubt it as I know no real scientist could be that stupid.
which suggests that athiests are not "real" scientists. According to Pew, US scientists are 10 times as likely to identify as atheist than the average American.
To help you see the abject stupidity of prayer experiments, let's do one now.
ethang5 fails to provide a single example of the "prayer experiment" he is refuting.
ethang5 says he is re-making the prayer experiment for us but we have no point of reference for comparison. How do we know ethang5 is accurately representing the experiment without prior examples?
(Actually, we can be fairly confident that ethang5 is not running any experiment using the scientific method: he has offered no hypothesis, no predictions, his experiment is pure fiction, he does not explain why only children are the only subject of his experiment or why using only children should not skew his results)
ethang5 should provide links to a few examples of the "prayer experiment" he is refuting without description or representation.
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Instead of ill feelings of anger and shame,
put SupaDudz in the hall of fame.
Instead of accusing and grousing and flame,
put SupaDudz in the hall of fame.
Instead of troll drooling and boozing insane,
put SupaDudz in the hall of fame.
Instead of complaining 'bout raining and pain,
put SupaDudz in the hall of fame.
Instead of a panic of manics deranged,
put SupaDudz in the hall of fame.
Instead of the drama of llamas enraged,
put supadudz in the hall of fame.
su-pa-pa dudz papa su-pa-pa-dudz
su-pa-pa dudz papa su-pa-pa-dudz
su-pa-pa dudz papa su-pa-pa-dudz
su-pa-pa dudz papa su-pa-pa-dudz
put Supadudz in the Hall of Fame
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@Greyparrot
The only thing more unpredictable than the weather is the ingenuity of men.
In fact, 5-day forecasts are accurate 90% of the time. There are few systems in science as dynamic as weather that are that predictable.
You have the cadence of a pithy observation here but your primary assumption is false.
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@Imabench
I think we have to assume that Barr intends to manufacture a criminal investigation/charges vs. any Democratic Nominee. Of all the candidates, it seems to me that Bloomberg is the easiest to stick with criminal charges because
- Bloomberg has always demonstrated a sort of "Damn the Torpedoes" outlook
- Case in point- expanding term limits. No ethical public servant changes a law and then stands first in line to benefit from the law's change.
- Changing party affiliation from democrat=>republican=>independent=>democratic for strategic reasons independent of any ideological shift. (That is, who cares what party members think, party membership is a only a means to an end).
- In 2009, in the throws of the Great Recession, Bloomberg reported financial gains of more than $4.5 billion- more than any other person in the world that year while he was mayor of the city where the crisis began, where hundred year old corporations were imploding. Bloomberg's financial services (somehow) profited off that crisis while nearly all the other financial institutions under his wing suffered. Somewhere in that dynamic, a damning (and potentially just) criminal charge ought to be easily discovered.
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I don't believe the OP is arguing that protestants are stupid
Your beliefs don't enter into it. triangle.128k's title topic is "Protestant Stupidity"
Transgenders certainly should not be leaders in the church.
OK, we have established that there's more going on than just "we are sinners alike" Clearly, there are at least two different kinds of sin- sins that won't get you banned from being a leader in the church and sins that will get you banned from being a leader in the church.
Can women become pastors?
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@Mopac
--> @oromagiI think you fail to realize that the transgender in the OP is the pastor of a church.
I did not fail to realize, I ignored as irrelevant. triangle.128k makes no argument that Protestants are stupid because they let transpeople be pastors.
triangle.128k argues that Protestants are stupid because they hold "transgender ceremonies," and it seems like any ceremony in which a transgendered person is permitted to play a role qualifies as a "transgender ceremony."
Are sinners disqualified from being pastors in you church?
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- Lost my shape trying to act casual.
- Can't stop-
- I might end up in the hospital.
- I'm changing my shape.
- (I feel like an accident)
- They're back to explain their experience
- Isn't it weird?
- Looks too obscure to me.
- Wasting away,
- And that was their policy.
- I'm ready to leave!
- I push the fact in front of me.
- Facts lost.
- (Facts are never what they seem to be.)
- Nothing there!
- No information left of any kind.
- Lifting my head:
- La-la-la-looking for the danger signs.
- There was a line,
- there was a formula.
- Sharp as a knife,
- Facts cut a hole in us.
- There was a line, there was a formula.
- Sharp as a knife, facts cut a hole in us
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting..
- .I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- The feeling returns
- whenever we close out eyes.
- lifting my head,
- looking around inside
- The island of doubt!
- It's like the taste of medicine.
- Working by hindsight,
- got the message
- from the oxygen.
- Making a list:
- Find the cost of
- opportunity.
- Doing it right, right, right, right, right.
- (Facts are useless in emergencies.)
- The feeling returns
- whenever we close out eyes.
- Lifting my head,
- looking around inside.
- Facts are simple and
- facts are straight.
- Facts are lazy and
- facts are late.
- Facts all come with points of view.
- Facts don't do what I want them to.
- Facts just twist the truth around.
- Facts are living turned inside out.
- Facts are getting the best of them.
- Facts are nothing on the face of things.
- Facts don't stain the furniture.
- Facts go out and slam the door.
- Facts are written all over your face.
- Facts continue to change their shape.
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting..
- .I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- I'm still waiting...
- -Talking Heads
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I've linked to my sources.
There is nothing sexual about the holy kiss, deacons do it at every liturgy, and it is a common greeting in many countries.
Straw man. Nobody said there was. I said that the Adelphopoiesis ceremony shares some details in common with a wedding ceremony including a kiss at the end, which you have confimed.
Monks and nuns do not get married. That is practically what defines a monastic.
Straw man. Nobody said they do. According to St. Nicodemus though, 300 years ago at St. Athos, they would get adelphopoiesied and have sex "as countless examples of actual experience have shown"
This perverse interpretation you have can only come from unfamiliarity with our liturgical practices.
I couldn't care less about your liturgical practices. I am refuting triangle.128k's claim that all Protestants are stupid and all Orthodoxers are smart.
A transgender could not be a priest. Any bishop who would knowingly ordain a transgender priest would likely not last long as a bishop.
Straw man. Nobody said otherwise.
We are not supposed to hate transgenders. However, it would be a lie for us to say that their belief is psychologically sound.The church allows sinners in, of course, who is perfect? Eventually, this transgender will have to come to terms with the fact that their delusion is a hindrance in their spiritual walk.
This would seem to refute triangle.128k 's thesis although you seem unwilling to say so. If transpeople are merely sinners like the rest of us, than what on what grounds does triangle.128k criticize Protestants for allowing sinners to participate in Protestant ceremonies? You seem to advise that sinners participate in ceremonies in your church too.
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@Salixes
Can western, democratic society adopt the lead taken by Russia and ban organised religion?
No, never. A democratic society cannot ban expressions of personal belief. When it tries, it ceases to be a democratic society.
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@Mopac
Agreed. Adelphopoiesis is in no way is like marriage except that
- the (same sex) couple stand together before a priest
- holding hands
- the couple swears to live together and love one another for their entire lives
- the priest asks for god's blessing
- they kiss at end
Other than those few, sort of overlapping details, Adelphopoiesis is no way like a wedding ceremony.
The church in no way condones same sex relations of the type you are implying.
In fact, as I included above, St. Nicodemus' Pedalion explictly prohibits Adelphopoiesis because the ceremony "merely affords matter for some persons to fulfill their carnal desires and to enjoy sensual pleasures, as countless examples of actual experience have shown"
Let's recall triangle.128k's claim:
Orthodoxers are smart because the Orthodox Church in the east has remained true and unchanged for centuries.
St. Nicodemus writes that in the late 1700's he was aware of "countless" same-sex couples using this ceremony "to fulfill their carnal desires," since he spent most of his life at the Monastery of Mt. Athos, the "actual experiences" he reports are likely fellow monks. Very unsurprisingly, in some times and places in the the history of the Orthodox Church, monks and nuns were getting married to each other and having sex often enough that they had to make a rule forbidding it anymore.
I don't know anything about the Orthodox Church, but to this outsider it sounds an awful lot like St. Nicodemus's testimony refutes triangle.128k's claim that the church has remained true and unchanged for centuries.
And certainly, closer examination of the article you referenced concerning the trans man joining the church does not imply that the church condones sex changes.
I agree that the article does not suggest church approval of sex change, but let's recall triangle.128k's claim- Protestants are stupid because they allow transgendered people to participate in ceremonies. I provided one example of a transman participating in an Orthodox ceremony which seems perfectly equivalent to the acceptance found in Cuba. If Protestants are stupid because of one far-away example of transgendered participation in a church ceremony, than Othodoxers must be likewise stupid because we can also find an Orthodox example of transgendered participation in a church ceremony.
Let's agree that it would be silly for anybody to imply that some religion condones sex changes just because one church somewhere welcomed trans-people in, for once, never mind whether the religion is protestant or orthodox.
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Sorry I was called away for a few hours, I would've hammered if I'd been around.
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@triangle.128k
This has not happened in the Orthodox Church. Prove to me otherwise.
Adelphopoiesis, , literally "brother-making" is a ceremony practiced historically in Christian tradition to unite together two people of the same sex (normally men) in a church-recognized relationship analogous to siblinghood.
the Eastern Orthodox Church's own Book of Canon Law, the Pedalion, which, as reported by historian Franco Mormando, "acknowledges the frequently erotic nature of the relationship ritualized in the 'brotherhood by adoption' or 'wedbrotherhood' ceremony: in prohibiting the ceremony (in its chapter on marriage), the Pedalion states that wedbrotherhood 'merely affords matter for some persons to fulfill their carnal desires and to enjoy sensual pleasures, as countless examples of actual experience have shown at various times and in various places...'"
Boswell's "Same Sex Unions in Pre-Modern Europe" finds example of hundreds of such Orthodox marriages in the 19th century, at least some of which seem explicitly romantic in nature.
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How do you know how much male on male sex actually takes place when women aren't available?
Exhaustive personal field studies.
This is the same delusional PC idea that homosexuality is somehow more virtuous.
Well the argument comes from Socrates, the founder of moral philosophy, who was neither delusional nor politically correct.
Soon the PC lemmings will come in, and for half, I will be a pedophile, and for the other half, a homophone, but none will address the issues. And after they drown me out from sheer yelling, will consider they cancelling a "win".
A homophone for what I wonder? Heathen? Eatin'? You can count on me to refrain from calling you a pedophile even if you continue to merely repeat unsubstantiated opinions instead of offering evidence.
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@ethang5
--> @oromagi
I found several in less than 5 minutes. https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/1301187001
Yup
17-year-old client who said he was abused in 2018.
Let's note that the abuse began in 2012, 3 years before the BSA permitted gay troop leaders.
Can you list others?
Govt. publications are always the first to change to reflect PC thinking. For you, PC thinking is "mainstream". But so what? Logic is a better guide to what is correct than political correctness. Tomorrow, the Journal of Pediatrics might be calling pedophilia wonderful, and appealers to authority like you will fall right in line.
Political correctness (adjectivally: politically correct; commonly abbreviated PC) is "a term used to describe language, policies, or measures that are intended to avoid offense or disadvantage to members of particular groups in society. In public discourse and the media, the term is generally used as a pejorative with an implication that these policies are excessive or unwarranted."
Ethan blames the 2015 admission of gay leaders for "murdering" the Boy Scouts. I have shown that the claim has no merit- The BSA was heading for bankruptcy long before 2015. Ethan responds that the US Govt, The Journal of Pediatrics, and I are merely trying to avoid offending gay people instead of offering evidence supporting his claim that gays murdered the Boy Scouts.
APPEAL to AUTHORITY is "insisting that a claim is true simply because a valid authority or expert on the issue said it was true, without any other supporting evidence offered."
Logical Form:
According to person 1, who is an expert on the issue of Y, Y is true.
Therefore, Y is true.
When all the experts say Y is true and only ethang5 says that Y is false, that is not an appeal to authority. That is a persuasive argument that Y is true.
And the declining membership, sex abuse cover-ups, and the withdrawal of the Mormon church was caused by the admission of gay scout leaders. Even the church says so.
Well, the LDS departure is a bit like Trump saying he's never heard of Lev Parnas. Keep in mind that the Mormon church was the first and has always been the largest sponsor of the Boy Scouts since 1911, operating more boy scout troops than any other organization for the whole of BSA's history. Consequently, Mormons have always had a disproportionate influence over BSA governance- more than any other outside body. The Mormons lost influence in the BSA precisely because their leadership had failed to handle the sex abuse so badly.
Let's note that that the LDS itself very likely has a much larger child sex abuse problem than the Boy Scouts. The Mormons have an old tradition of child marriage dating back to Joseph Smith's 7 child brides and Brigham Young's 8 child brides. Utah ranks first in child sex abuse- about 1,860 reports in 2014 alone.
Membership peaked in 1970 with 4.7 million scouts and has steadily declined over 5 decades- long before the sex abuse became public (2012).
from 1999 to 2015, scout membership declined 34.2% (more than 2% per year) but only 1% (about 23,000) in 2016, the year after gay leaders were allowed. The policy change actually reduced the rate of membership decline in the following year.
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UNVOTE
Draft's last post DP1 doesn't make sense as scum.
VTL Speed
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@drafterman
I have little insight. It seems like everybody has the pm, although drafter just said "town confirmed" rather than offering a hint at the pm.
VTL Drafterman
because he is the only smart enough to pull that maneuver off.
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@Alec
--> @oromagiIf sex abuse is so rare in BSA, then how come the organization went bankrupt with all these accusations? I mean, the Catholic church has them too, but they aren't bankrupt.
I explained that above. The BSA declared bankruptcy so that they don't have to pay the judgements against them. BSA expects lawsuits to amount to $100-500 million in damages and they say they control $1-10 billion in assets. Bankruptcy makes any payouts far less likely and if they do pay it will pennies on the dollar. Bankruptcy also prevents any new lawsuits.
The Catholic Church bilks its victims out of any payout, too.
The Archdiocese or Diocese of Portland, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Santa Fe, and Guam, Tucson, Spokane, Davenport,
San Diego, Fairbanks, Wilmington, Gallup, Stockton, Helena, Duluth, Great Falls, St. Cloud, Rochester, and Harrisburg
have declared bankruptcy in recent years. Globally, the non-payment of lawsuits by the Catholic Church is far larger.
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@WaterPhoenix
UNVOTE
VTL WaterPhoenix
What does your PM say?
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@Speedrace
lol oro is really a genius
i deny it
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@Alec
1/50th of 1%
The BSA boasts of 35 million adult volunteers since 1911. Of these, The NY Times reports 7,819 BSA perpetrators.
7819/35 mil= .0002 or 2/100ths of 1%
Of 130 million boy scouts, 12,254 have reported sex abuse or
9/1000ths of 1%.
By comparison, 16% (probably higher) of boys report experiencing sexual abuse before they turn 18, the overwhelming number of cases taking place in the home. Statistically, boys scouts have always been far safer from abuse away at the Boy Scouts than at home.
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im ur town 2
mine ids the game NSQM and then ur town.
that's it.
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@ethang5
Agree w/ Drafterman that ethang5's claims needs some sourcing. I'm citing mainstream thinking- the Journal of Pediatrics and the FBI, which Ethan dismisses as "PC nonsense"
I'd be willing to create a debate on this topic: "THBT: The 2020 BANKRUPTCY FILING by the BOY SCOUTS of AMERICA was CAUSED by DECLINING MEMBERSHIP, SEX ABUSE COVER-UPS and the WITHDRAWAL of the MORMON CHURCH, NOT the 2015 ADMISSION of GAY SCOUT LEADERS"
The fact is that straight men sexually abuse more boys than gay men do. This is not as surprising when one honestly assesses the amount of male on male sex that actually takes place when women aren't available. Prisons are the classic example but really almost all ultra-male situations end up getting pretty gay pretty quickly- ship's crews, fraternities, boys schools, priesthoods. Think about how often we read about five varsity guys sodomizing a freshman with a hockey stick, etc. I think Ethan wants to call all these guys gay but gay and straight are gender preferences only and far more men than are willing to admit it will still seek sex even when their preferred gender is unavailable.
Now, a guy who gets off on violent sexual domination, who gets off on victimization, is probably way more interested in the domination and the extremities of power than he is in the gender of the victim. For the rapist, the act of rape is about the rapist- about making himself feel powerful, virile, capable of domination, whatever. The identity of the victim, including gender, can often seem incidental to the rapist in the same way that a school shooter often does not care which gender he is killing.
Further, (and this is strictly conjectural) I think that gay men are definitionally less attracted to sexual domination than straight men for the obvious reason that in gay sex couplings, the dominant/dominated are seldom fixed roles but more often the subject of continual re-negotiation, which doesn't lend itself as easily to the empowerment via sexual domination narrative as heterosexual couplings.
Also, I think simple physicality is a real factor. A dominator chooses weaker, smaller people to rape- women, children, elderly. Gay men are definitionally attracted to larger, stronger physiques than straight men are attracted to and so gay men are further away from the sexuality of that overpowering dynamic than straight men.
I'm not saying that gay men aren't subject to the same motivations and tendencies as straight men. Of course there are gay child sex abusers. But research showing that gay men commit less child sex abuse than straight men is not particularly surprising to me.
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@Singularity
You'd make a convincing gelatinous cube
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@Zaradi
/in
o cum all ye losers
dumb but unrepentant
o cum ye you elephants of
ma ah fee uh
cum be emboldened cuz
greyparrot is play-ay-ying
he might again just shout out
his scum affiliation!
o cum and be emboldened!
Ma... Ah.... Fee uhhhhhhhhhhhh
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@ethang5
Ethang5's presumptions are, in fact, the opposite of the truth.
Any experienced detective or social worker will warn observers not to mistake sex abuse for an expression of sexual attraction. 28% of reported US sex assault victims between 2003-2013 were over the age of 65 but few would make the mistake of concluding that a quarter of all rapists are therefore gerontophiles. No. Rape is an expression of violence, not attraction. The victims are selected according to availability and vulnerability, not attraction.
Less than 30% of child sex abuse is done by offenders with a sustained sexual attraction to the underaged.
"Exactly 65.7% of the men assaulted girls exclusively, while they molested both boys and girls far less often (20.2%). Sexual assaults committed against boys only occurred in 13.3% of the adult sample and 10.6% of the adolescent sample. We found that 51.9% of the
adolescent offenders assaulted boys at some point, as compared to only 33.4% of the adult offenders."
"A random sample of 175 males convicted of sexual assault against children was screened with reference to their adult sexual orientation and the sex of their victims. The sample divided fairly evenly into two groups based on whether they were sexually fixated exclusively on children or had regressed from peer relationships. Female children were victimized nearly twice as often as male children. All regressed offenders, whether their victims were male or female children, were heterosexual in their adult orientation. There were no examples of regression to child victims among peer-oriented, homosexual males. The possibility emerges that homosexuality and homosexual pedophilia may be mutually exclusive and that the adult heterosexual male constitutes a greater risk to the underage child than does the adult homosexual male."
In another study of 269 cases, two offenders were identified as being gay or lesbian.
Just going by the numbers, a boy scout leader who identifies as gay is statistically far less likely to be a sex abuse than a boy scout leader who identifies as straight.
In fact, the overwhelming majority of lawsuits pending against the BSA date from before 1988, when the scouts implemented a child protection program. I am not able to find a single lawsuit or accusation of sex abuse dated after 2015 (When the BSA permitted troop leaders).
Let's also note that the BSA is not filing for bankruptcy because lawsuit payouts drained their coffers. Rather, the BSA is filing for bankruptcy so that it does not have to pay out judgements against them.
"On February 18, 2020, the organization filed for bankruptcy in a Delaware bankruptcy court, listing liabilities of between $100 million and $500 million and assets of $1 billion to $10 billion."
That is, liabilities (including lawsuits) represent somewhere between 1-50% of Boy Scout assets.
"The bankruptcy filing came at a time when the organization faced hundreds of sexual abuse lawsuits. As a result of the filing, all civil litigation against the organization was suspended. Local Councils and units remained largely unaffected as they are standalone units."
So at least 140 lawsuits are on hold and new law suits cannot be filed.
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@Greyparrot
Let's note that GP titled this TOPIC: Global Warming is a scam
Now GP claims that Climate Change is NOT a scam, that wasn't what he meant when he wrote the title he meant something else entirely.
"Climate Change ALARMISM is a scam. Not Climate Change."
/thread
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To me its pretty obvious that WP has not claimed to know the president's identity.
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@Greyparrot
Oromagi has decided to conveniently ignore the amount of thermal heat needed to completely melt the Antarctic ice sheets to satisfy the prediction of climate ALARMISTS - namely the prediction that the sheets will melt in 20 years.
Give me three examples of prominent predictions stating that the Antartic ice sheets will melt in 20 years. I can't find any scientists online making this claim. I suspect this is just more straw man.
The amount of thermal heat the sun would need to apply to do that in the very very short span of 20 years, (a politically expedient prediction as it is long enough timespan to keep pushing the narrative and short enough to scare the ignorant masses into hysteria) would most certainly roast the entire planet which did not have kilometers deep ice sheets. KFC extra crispy.
But since nobody makes this argument what's the point of GP's refutation?
Oromagi is an alarmist apologist and probably brainwashed to trust political authority, not science and thermodynamic equations.
Note the resort to ad hom. GP has no case.
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@Greyparrot
--> @oromagiYou fall into the same trap as all hysteria junkies.Falsely correlating legal and illegal immigration.
Non-sequitur. GP is trying to change the subject.
Falsely correlating climate change and climate alarmism.
Let's note that GP is the only one talking about climate alarmism. The emotional state of some people (polititicans or otherwise) has little bearing on the truth of global warming and I can make out no correlation between climate change and alarmism.
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@Greyparrot
--> @oromagiThat some people concerned about the problem are inefficient at problem-solving does not serve as proof that the problem does not exist.Fake concern over politically useful alarmism is of immense value to a politician. The same politicians inevitably fly back home to their 30000 KW/Hr oversized homes, laughing in cigar smoked filled rooms, personally feasting on the palpable CO2 while pondering the limits of the lack of agency and the lack of rational oversight from a willingly frightened populace suckling on the teat of corporate MSM with the slow, steady IV drip of political CNN propaganda satisfying the amygdala.
Let's notice that GP continues to accuse anonymous "they"s. I don't buy GP's story of cigar-smoking politicians but whether we buy it or not is entirely disconnected from GP's assertion that climate change is a scam. The presence of alarmists does not disprove a problem. For example, an alarmist might inaccurately shout that an approaching tsunami is 100 ft high when it the wave is in fact only 42 ft high- but that does not mean one should not run to high ground.
GPs thesis is that global warming is a scam but GP has spent little effort disproving the theory. How does all this "personality" talk have any bearing on the data supporting global warming?
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That some group of people is only responsible for one quarter of the problem does not serve as proof that the problem does not existAlarmist predictions should not exist. Especially ones used by politicians to gain wealth and power using fear to control the dumbasses.
Non-sequitur. Either the global temperature is increasing or GP's claim that "global warming is a scam" is true. Both cannot be true.
The most prominent politician I can think of to make some money off of climate change is Al Gore. I suppose one could characterize some of his movie "An Inconvenient Truth" as alarmist- a graphic of Fla. under water comes to mind but Gore had given up politics 8 years before the move and now, 12 years after the movie was released, the movie's major predictions about global warming continuing to increase and its impacts seem reasonably on track.
GP should provide examples of "alarmist" predictions and "alarmist" politicians to support this claim.
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@Greyparrot
The USA has zero methods to prevent China from becoming a 40% global emitter of CO2 by 2030.
False. A study out just this month shows that even the minor shocks of Trump's 2019 trade war with China produced measurable decreases in
greenhouse gas emmsions:
"In terms of GHGs, under six rounds of shocks, global CO2 emissions decreased 0.16 % compared with BAU. Total CO2 emissions in China and the US decreased by 0.68 % and 0.02 % respectively. However, except for LAM, which produced 0.10 % CO2 emission reduction, the CO2 emissions of the other regions showed an increasing trend with a change rate of 0.01 % (ROW)-0.17 % (ROA)."
"The impacts of Sino-US trade disputes on industry production and energy consumption are major sources of GHG emission changes. In general, trade friction will be conducive to long-term GHG emission reduction, and the more intense the friction, the greater the reduction. According to the equilibrium results under various policy scenarios, the impact of trade friction on the global emissions of major GHGs is shown in Fig. 6. Under the armistice scenario (SE), there is no significant change in global GHG emissions, and the escalation of trade friction will increase GHG emission reduction incrementally. For example, under scenario CK, UA and WF, global total GHG emissions will be reduced by 0.07 %, 0.14 % and 4.23 % respectively in 2050. Moreover, all GHG emissions under global trade barriers (scenario WF) will be significantly reduced, and the change proportion is 4.95 % (CO2), 0.86 % (CH4) and 2.07 % (N2O) in 2050, respectively."
At present tarriffs, Chinese carbon emissions went down more than half of 1%. The same report modeled a scenario in which the Sino-American trade war escalated to 100% tarriffs and concluded that even after other countries picked up the slack, total greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by nearly 5%.
GP's statement "The USA has zero methods to prevent China from becoming a 40% global emitter."is proven false. US trade policy reduced Chinese emissions this year.
The American-centric view that ONLY America can change the climate is a narrative spun uniquely by politicians and virtue puppets and by no actual scientists.
Straw man. Nobody is arguing for a US only climate change policy.
GP must provide examples of politicians arguing that the US can do it alone or retract the claim as false. I'm sure many argue that the US must act decisively even if China won't but that is an entirely different argument than only America can change the climate.
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@Greyparrot
--> @oromagiIf GP does not trust his sources regarding climate change...I don't trust alarmists. Especially political alarmists.
Set aside the characterizations. GP's sources claim that Climate Change is a real threat. GP quotes those sources as reliable but call Climate Change a scam. Either GP trusts his sources and admits his error or he's cherry picking data points while ignoring the conclusions.
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@Greyparrot
Well, I do advocate for nuclear energy as a short term measure although we have not adequately resolved radioactive byproduct containment and storage. I don't know much about this Greta you keep mentioning. I know she won the peace prize and addressed the UN but my understanding is she just an outspoken 16 yr old granddaughter of some well-known Swedish actor and that she's pretty open about her multiple mental health diagnoses. Since she makes no pretense of expertise on the subject, I don't know why people focus on her opinion.
Nevertheless, you are quite wrong when you say that Greta won't discuss nuclear power. 5 seconds of googling finds this:
"Personally I am against nuclear power, but according to the IPCC [the United Nations Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change], it can be a small part of a very big new carbon free energy solution, especially in countries and areas that lack the possibility of a full scale renewable energy supply - even though it's extremely dangerous, expensive and time consuming. But let’s leave that debate until we start looking at the full picture."
I discussed China in this forum even before GP claimed that I won't discuss China.
So let's note that GP's claim that Greta & I won't discuss nukes or China can be dismissed as false.
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@Greyparrot
Let's look at another source of heat the average person can fathom.The Tsar Bomba was the largest test detonation of a thermonuclear device yielding 2.09 × 10^18 joules of energy.Assuming we could somehow channel ALL that energy into the ice sheets, and knowing a steady melt would require 2.03X10^22 J per year to melt it in 20 years (this is additional energy added to the energy already applied currently from the sun)This would require 194260 Tsar Bomba detonations across the Antarctic ice sheets over 20 years.9713 Tsar Bomba detonations per year, or alternatively,27 Tsar Bomba detonations per day for 20 years.At that point, we should see a steady rise per year in sea levels of not a mere fraction of a millimeter, but 6.6 inches rise in sea level every year for 20 years.If that amount of thermal energy was distributed evenly across the globe over 20 years, Sea levels would be the absolute LAST thing you would be worried about.And yet, we are supposed to take alarmists seriously?
43X10^19 J per hour from the sun vs. .209X10^19 per Tsar Bomba. The Sun delivers 206 Tsar Bombas worth of energy every hour. So if GP is correct in the the assertion that 194260 Tsar Bombas could melt Antartica than he should note that the Sun heats the Earth with that much energy every 943 hours or again, just under 40 days. The Sun is the worrisome source of heat not mankind. Scientists are worried about the amount of the Sun's heat we are unintentionally trapping in our atmosphere.
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@Greyparrot
Imagine living inside of a running microwave. That is what the alarmists are suggesting with a 20-year elimination of Antarctic land ice, but want us to focus on sea levels instead of seared flesh...<i><br></i>
"At Earth’s average distance from the Sun (about 150 million kilometers), the average intensity of solar energy reaching the top of the atmosphere directly facing the Sun is about 1,360 watts per square meter, according to measurements made by the most recent NASA satellite missions.... A microwave uses about 1000 watts."
The surface area of the Earth is more than 510 billion square meters and the surface area of the atmosphere would be far greater than that. Even so, we presently live with an total solar constant greater than that of 500 billion microwave ovens.
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@Greyparrot
Also, the science is hardly conclusive that there is a definitive runaway melting of land ice in the Antarctic. The changes in sea level annually are in fractions of millimeters, yet alarmists would have us believe human life will cease to exist within a few years.
GP is citing Jay Zwally's 2015 research presenting data that the average height of glaciers in Antarctica is increasing. Zwally used satellite mounted lasers to measure the heights but controversially used local water level measurements to calibrate sea level. No direct observation was used to confirm that sea level so the accuracy of Zwally's findings are unconfirmed. Forbes sums up the consensus opinion regarding this study:
"Since 2015 scientists have had a chance to look over the data and have had time to do a few follow-up studies and the results are clear.It is agreed among scientists studying the situation that the Eastern area is gaining a lot of ice due to thousands of years of continued snowfall. However, measuring the size of that gain can be difficult at best. The major issues with Zwally’s study are that it used altimeter data from satellites, which is subject to systematic errors such as snowpack penetration and telling the difference between snow that is on the ground and snow that is still falling. Also, in order to calibrate their measurements, Zwally’s team bounced lasers of the Southern Ocean which may not have been reliable.''In a study published in 2017 scientists were able to combine information from satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS to measure the ice balance in East Antarctica from 2003-2013 When looking at this data they were unable to confirm Zwally’s findings. This study concluded that gains in East Antarctica are smaller than losses in West Antarctica. In fact, the gains in East Antarctica were about a third of what Zwally’s study believed them to be.'"We can clearly see that when these numbers are put together the continent is losing a lot of ice every year. Furthermore, the rate of loss is getting worse as time goes by."
Further, since GP has presented Zwally as an expert on climate change, GP should listen to Zwally's caution to climate change deniers:
"Zwally's... team agrees with the broader scientific community on the main issue: Antarctica is melting due to rising temperatures.'Zwally said he hoped his study wouldn't detract from other research highlighting the scope and dangers of climate change."When our paper came out, I was very careful to emphasize that this is in no way contradictory to the findings of the IPCC report or conclusions that climate change is a serious problem that we need to do something about," he told Scientific American.He also seemed aware some people would weaponize the study for political purposes."I know some of the climate deniers will jump on this, and say this means we don't have to worry as much as some people have been making out," he said. "It should not take away from the concern about climate warming."
If GP accepts Zwally as an expert opinion, then GP should retract the claim that climate change is a scam.
If GP does not accept Zwally as an expert opinion, then GP should retract this citation.
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@Greyparrot
--> @oromagiYou don't just eyeball values of solar joules and latent heat of ice. Anyone who lives in the north will tell you it can take quite a while for a mound of snowplowed ice to melt depending on how much ice there is in the mound, even in 70-degree weather.And then there’s the ice. We are supposedly melting the ice; the literature is filled with papers making this claim. These papers invariably whine about human activity warming the planet, but they never seem to get around to discussing how much energy is actually required, or how it gets to the ice. But do humans really generate enough energy to melt significant amounts of ice?How much energy is needed to melt 1.32X10^6 Km3 of ice?It takes 333.55X10^3 J to melt 1 kg of ice.Doing the math, we see it takes 3.07X10^17 J to melt a cubic km of ice. This is our basic unit of heat energy for melting any large amount of ice in Antarctica, or anywhere else.We have determined how much ice is involved in an 11-foot ocean rise: a volume of 1.32X10^6 Km3. To melt it, the ice must receive 1.32X10^6 Km3 X 3.07X10^17 J, or 4.05X10^23 J. This is true regardless of what process gets the heat to Antarctica. A steady melt would require 2.03X10^22 J per year to melt it in 20 years, or 8.1X10^21 J per year to melt it in 50 years.We can argue until the cows come home about how that much heat can reach the glaciers. But for our nontechnical friends, it’s interesting to compare the energy requirement with how much energy humans produce. In other words, if humans set out to deliberately melt the Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Antarctic, could they even do it?Well, let us see!According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 2016 the world produced 84.412479 quadrillion (84.412479X10^15) BTU. That converts to 8.906X10^19 J, consisting of fossil fuel (the largest component), nuclear, and renewable. And if we used all of the world’s energy to do nothing but melt the ice, we could not do it in 20 years, or even in 50 years. We could do it in about 4,500 years.That kind of heat to melt that much ice in 20 years would also require a significant increase in solar joules, one that would cause temperatures to rise far above 70 degrees F.
Jeez, GP. I am surprised to learn that you (and your source at WUWT) remain entirely ignorant of the central precept of global warming claims.
No scientists anywhere are claiming that that the energy humans produce is warming the world as the your straw man claims above. Scientists are worried about the energy produced by the Sun. GP ignores the heat energy of the Sun which radiates the Earth with an average of 430 quintillion joules of power every hour.
So that's 43X10^19 J per hour (43x8760 = 375,680X10^19 per year) compared to GP's claim that humans generate 8.9X10^19 J per year
OR
The Sun provides Earth roughly 41,853 times as much energy annually as humans do.
OR
37.57X10^23 J per year is about 9 1/4 times the amount of energy GP argues is required for an 11 ft. rise is sea levels. If GP's figures are correct (I haven't checked) what mankind couldn't do in 4500 years, the Sun's rays on Earth could accomplish in just 40 days (if the Earth weren't radiating most of the at heat back into space).
In fact, Wikipedia claims:
"The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vast that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all of the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and mined uranium combined,"
Obviously, the trick is to keep Earth's energy budget in balance.
"In spite of the enormous transfers of energy into and from the Earth, it maintains a relatively constant temperature because, as a whole, there is little net gain or loss: Earth emits via atmospheric and terrestrial radiation (shifted to longer electromagnetic wavelengths) to space about the same amount of energy as it receives via insolation (all forms of electromagnetic radiation).To quantify Earth's heat budget or heat balance, let the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere be 100 units (100 units = about 1,360 watts per square meter facing the sun), as shown in the accompanying illustration. Called the albedo of Earth, around 35 units are reflected back to space: 27 from the top of clouds, 2 from snow and ice-covered areas, and 6 by other parts of the atmosphere. The 65 remaining units are absorbed: 14 within the atmosphere and 51 by the Earth’s surface. These 51 units are radiated to space in the form of terrestrial radiation: 17 directly radiated to space and 34 absorbed by the atmosphere (19 through latent heat of condensation, 9 via convection and turbulence, and 6 directly absorbed). The 48 units absorbed by the atmosphere (34 units from terrestrial radiation and 14 from insolation) are finally radiated back to space. These 65 units (17 from the ground and 48 from the atmosphere) balance the 65 units absorbed from the sun in order to maintain zero net gain of energy by the Earth."
Increased greenhouse gases increase the atmosphere's capacity for absorption which means it takes longer for the Earth to radiate heat back to space which translates into increased surface temperatures (mostly absorbed by the oceans).
GP has badly misunderstood the source and nature of the heat driving climate change, which explains his erroneous conclusions.
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@Greyparrot
thx, GP.
\
--> @oromagiRight.Our 15% still isn't worth a tick on a tit when it comes to global environmental engineering.
disagree. It is worth at least 15% and considering America's out-sized influence in global commerce and politics, probably much more than 15%
Americacentrism and Eurocentrism are still unjustifiably strong zeitgeists in academia.
Nationalism and ethnocentrism are commonplace biases. I'd disagree that American schools are more nationally biased or particularly jingoistic compared to other American public or commercial institutions- baseball, for example, or cattle ranching.
GP complains about academic bias and immediately follows with an opinion piece from a JP Morgan Oil Trader who became an energy advisor after he and his boys crashed the market in 2008. Simon Lack's entire career depends on increasing global fossil fuel dependency. One can't help but notice that his solution to climate change is for China to switch from coal power plants to gas. Lack's main point is not that China burns fossil fuels unchecked but that China doesn't buy those fossil fuels from Lack's clients. Why are you citing this?
The conversation about climate change is overwhelmingly dominated by Chinese, Indian, and African apologists as clearly evidenced by the response above.
Just to be clear, these are 'Americacentric' Chinese apologists GP is worried about? Aren't these two characteristics rather contradictory? Also, where in Lack's opinion piece does he talk about Chinese apologists? How are you connecting Lack's piece?
In fact, the UN seems to be just fine with calculating a predicted 35-40% contribution of global CO2 from China as emission rates inexorably rise in China while falling in America and the EU.
Well, the IPCC does the calculating but as far as this reader can tell, the UN is quite concerned with China's contribution to greenhouse gases.
GP needs to offer evidence that the UN is "just fine" with China's pollution or retract the statement as false.
It's as though there is nothing we can do about it (because the truth that we really can't isn't something the public wants to hear from politicians)
Instead, it's the same old garbage from the same people with the usual suspects. That climate change is an existential threat, and only Americans have the power to do anything about it. Neither of which is true.
Ultimately, I suspect this is GP's true thesis: there's nothing we can do about it (and so, let's maintain the status quo). "Your eyelids are getting heavier, heavier .....sleep....sleep.....sleep." This strikes me as a particularly un-American sentiment. Whatever the critiques American exceptionalism, we've never been to sort to look at a problem and say, 'there's nothing we can do about that."
The global economy is not an American possession but it is an American artifact. More than any nation, our little 4.2% of the world's population imagined, invented, designed, and engineered the modern world's economy. Americans filled the world with Coca-Cola bottles and Big Macs and cars and planes and plastic wrappers and televisions and refrigerators and nukes and advertising and phones and computers. China's post-industrial industrial revolution is modeled on America. The Rise of China is also, to an important extent, the Americanization of China - the blending of American commerce with Chinese culture. I suppose the half-empties of the world look at American influence and decry America's fault in the world's warming but American's have never been all that interested in regrets or blame. The American spirit is a half-full world view. We, the first nation to be able to destroy the world and the first nation to refrain; we, who fly our flags first on the Moon and Mars; we, the architects of the modern global economy; we, who warmed the world can choose to cool it and those who say we can't can take a seat and watch.
Dropped arguments:
- 24% of total contribution could represent as much as 60% of the required change.
- US commercial interests have more influence in China than any other international lever
- Who is the "they" that won't discuss nuclear power or China?
- That some group of people is only responsible for one quarter of the problem does not serve as proof that the problem does not exist
- That some people concerned about the problem are inefficient at problem solving does not serve as proof that the problem does not exist.
- Both of GP's sources clearly state that climate change is real. If GP does not trust his sources regarding climate change, why is he citing them as evidence?
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I went from VERY successful businessman to top TV star to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius … and a very stable genius at that!”
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Hope is not blind optimism. It's not ignoring the enormity of the task ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path. It's not sitting on the sidelines or shirking from a fight. Hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it, and to work for it, and to fight for it. Hope is the belief that destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by the men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be.
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