Total posts: 8,696
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OK, I'd be willing to grynch Supa at this point just to see if its a typo in the PM or weak fake claim or something else
VTL SupaDudz
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@Vader
The movie is called "The Santa Clause" but there is no character named Santa Clause as far as I can tell. Tim Allen gets recruited to be Santa Claus, the clause being a pun on the rule of recruitment, I supposed.
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@Vader
Incorrect, my PM states Santa Clause from The Santa Clause
I've never seen the movie. I was under the impression that the clause was some legal obligation to impersonate Santa. What actor plays your character in the movie?
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I think I'm fine with a no lynch result at this point.
I think we are approaching some consensus on theme so if somebody feels like they are way outside the "Xmas story characters" mellieu they should probably be saying as much now (without necessarily claiming)
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@Speedrace
good point. Mafia TRACKER is fairly common
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@LikeMagic
--> @oromagielves on the hearth is not the same. That sounds both creepy and adorable though. Elf on the Shelf is a coprighted and trademarked character. He spies on little kids and reports back to santa if the kids are bad or good. Also, a creepy tradition if you ask me, but anything to manipulate small children before X-mas I suppose. Parents move the elf everynight into random places in the house (not necessarily shelves) in order to convince the children the elf left and came back.
OK, I'd call that pretty consistent with TRACKER
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@Speedrace
There's a movie and a book for elf on the shelf guys lol
Does Elf on the Shelf line up with TRACKER for you?
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@LikeMagic
@oromagi1 book character2 movie characters1 movie title1 ornament typeNot sure where you put me in this calculation, but my character falls into none and all of these categories.
Ok good.
Also, elf on the shelf is not an ornament, it is a doll that comes with a story book that is used to make sure kids behave nicely before xmas. i believe their is a movie too, but mostly it is a book character with an accompanying doll.
Good info. So potentially an Xmas story character as well. (although I see the book was written in 2005 and my Mom's family placed felt elves on the hearth going back to the 1950's, at least.)
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@Danielle
I'm sorry I just thoughtlessly edited the above post. (I added move char claim to Bullish) I promise not to do it again.
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oromagi Cindy Lou Who INNOCENT CHILD
TOWN
WaterPhoenix Elf on a Shelf TRACKER
Lunatic Jack Skellington
whiteflame
LikeMagic (movie) HATED
that1user
drafterman
Bullish (movie)
Supa Santa Clause
Pie
MisterChris
SCUM
Speedrace
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@WaterPhoenix
WP-
Pls. re-read your IM and advise whether Elf on a Shelf refers to the popular Xmas ornament or something else....Is Elf on a Shelf a character in a movie I don't know?
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1 book character
2 movie characters
1 movie title
1 ornament type
WPs claim does seem a little unlike the others.
Without claiming anything specific it would be interesting to know whether players felt they belonged to the "Xmas themed story" character set or more generic "Xmas stuff" set
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@Bullish
Elf on the shelf is an off claim btw, every claim right now has been a movie character. I am also a movie character. Elf on the shelf is a book character. Elf on the shelf is also scummy af cause it's a fucking surveillance state metaphor.
hmmmm
CIndy Lou Who is a TV character first.
Santa Clause is the name of a movie, not a character.
Anybody else want to weigh in on characters? Are we mostly movie and TV characters are there other seasonal aspects?
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oromagi Cindy Lou Who INNOCENT CHILD
TOWN
WaterPhoenix Elf on a Shelf TRACKER
Pie
MisterChris
SCUM
Speedrace
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I don't believe WP would ever deceptively claim Elf on a Shelf as TRACKER in DP1. Super high risk claim in DP1. That makes WP the top night target. I hope TOWN is pointing their binoculars accordingly.
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@ILikePie5
Would like more from him though because he’s our only confirmed town and his input would be more genuine than everyone else.
Not having much insight into a low information scenario is my genuine input. I could manufacture little melodramas based on nothing which I know is the popular sport of DP1s, but that would not be genuine input from me.
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@Vader
A Mime is a member of a third-party faction that wins only if all of its members are voted out, or eliminated. The Mime faction also has a factional Roleblock that can be used at Night to hopefully stop the Mafia's kill. If the Mime faction wins, the game usually ends.
A single Mime is nearly equivalent to a Jester-Roleblocker, the difference being that Jesters tend to not end games when they win.
Mimes are generally not used outside the aforementioned Open setup because if a single one of them gets killed (i.e. not eliminated), all of them lose.
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@WaterPhoenix
i think i have a good idea of the theme
might as well throw it out there
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oromagi Cindy Lou Who INNOCENT CHILD
TOWN
Lunatic
whiteflame
MisterChris
Pie
LikeMagic HATED
that1user
Supa Santa Clause
drafterman
Bullish
WaterPhoenix
SCUM
Speedrace
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@Vader
I don't have a problem claiming and will do so right now, I am Santa Clause.
Can we get a spelling check?
Are you Santa Clause as in the 1994 Tim Allen movie? or Santa Claus as in St. Nick?
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@ILikePie5
A good fantasy series should definitely make you cry a few times.
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@whiteflame
Be happy to recommend some fantasy books if you're interested
yes, please
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@ILikePie5
So you recommend the series? I haven't found a new fantasy series that I liked for a long time. I didn't really the Game of Thrones, even, though I eventually got into the TV series. I hear Hulu is working on a TV series.
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@whiteflame
Hard to get past first base, tho because everybody's who plus I think Cindy Lou is the only Who with a first name.
What's on second?
Papa who.
What?
No who.
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Theme is XMAS 2020 so I assume there are some contemporary references in the character list. Speed is likely Mitch McConnell, Krampus, or Coronavirus.
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@Speedrace
Wait that's a q not a g lol
wait that's a g not a q. G as in VOTE to GRINCH Supadudz
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oromagi Cindy Lou Who INNOCENT CHILD
TOWN
Lunatic
whiteflame
MisterChris
AWoL
Supa
drafterman
that1user
Pie
LikeMagic
Bullish
WaterPhoenix
SCUM
Speedrace
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who's on first?
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Welcome Christmas, come this way!
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Welcome Christmas, Christmas Day!
Welcome, welcome! Fah who rahmus!
Welcome, welcome! Dah who dahmus!
Christmas Day is in our grasp!
So long as we have hands to clasp!
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Welcome Christmas! Bring your cheer!
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Welcome all who's far and near!
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Welcome Christmas, come this way!
Fah who foraze! Dah who doraze!
Welcome Christmas, Christmas Day!
Welcome, Christmas! Fah who rahmus!
Welcome, Christmas! Dah who dahmus!
Christmas Day will always be!
Just as long as we have we!
VTG Supadudz
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@sadolite
Now that corona virus vaccines are being administered, how will we be able to tell if they are working?
Fewer people get infected.
The current survival rate without it is 99.6%.
Johns Hopkins estimates the present US mortality rate at 1.8% although we should note that the excess death rates for the year are much higher and we are only beginning to understand how much damage this disease does to the heart and lungs, even in some mild and undetected cases. We probably need 20 or 30 years of data to get a proper estimate but some papers are already estimating an average 13 years decrease in life expectancy of US males infected with the virus. Let's keep in mind that more than of all Americans infected with the virus are not included in Johns Hopkins estimate because more than half are only just infected and no outcome has yet been determined. Nor does this survival rate account for the people who died from substandard or absent healthcare as an indirect result of hospital overburden. I would characterize the current COVID survival rate at 98% and dropping in the US.
Less and less people were dying from it already, less and less people were being hospitalized already before the vaccine.
In fact, deaths from COVID are up 39% over the past 14 days. And hospitalizations, which have been at record highs for a month, increased 16% over the past 14 days. We are seeing reports this week of patients being medivac'd from Montana to Seattle, Washington because there are no available ICU beds any closer. We are seeing reports of patients being treated in ambulances in the parking for 12 hours for lack of room in the ERs.
I've never been tested and I had a runny nose for a couple of days a few weeks ago. Whos to say that wasn't covid? I
In fact, the present odds of somebody not masking up and social distancing contracted the virus is quite a bit higher than getting a cold. You may very well have been infected.
really don't see how in any real scientific manner its effectiveness can be measured
Measuring infection rates seems pretty informative.
nd separated from nature just taking its course and heard immunity being what works.
Sweden reports that its experiment with herd immunity was a failure
Sweden's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country.
“The issue of herd immunity is difficult,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, said at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg News.
“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now," Tegnell said.
Sweden has seen a resurgence of the virus in recent weeks, with the rate of new infections more than doubling from earlier this year.
I am told that the vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting covid it supposedly makes the symptoms less severe.
You have been told wrong. The COVID vaccine does not use a live virus and cannot infect you with COVID-19.
How will they determine that the vaccine is doing that when the vast majority show no symptoms or just mild symptoms anyway without the vaccine?
Same way as any other virus. Smallpox and polio infection rates have declined by nearly 100% in the past 60 years. In 1962, 500,000 people/year would get the measles (I lost much of my hearing to measles as a kid) In 1992, that number was down to 89 measles cases per year.
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@Theweakeredge
My point, in drawing attention here is to ask, how accurate is the history taught in public schools?
- We should distinguish public high school history from public college history. High school curriculum are more subject to the concerns of elected school boards and parents with a wide range of political agendas. Colleges are also public schools to an important extent but are more likely to teach multiple perspectives and then require a critical analysis as output.
- We should also anticipate bias from any source and investigate self-interest's impact on objectivity.
- US public schools are more likely to teach that the A-bomb was a justified efficiency.
- Japanese public schools are more likely to focus on the physical and psychological impacts and the injustice of bombing civilian populations.
- One Italian textbook teaches that the bomb was more of a post-war power play:
- "There was no doubt that in very little time the Japanese, already at the end of their tether, would have had to surrender ... What seems certain is that the show of force, made indiscriminately at the expense of unarmed people, increased the United States' weight in post-war tensions and decisions, especially concerning the Soviet Union. It is probably therefore that Truman's decision was inspired more by post-war prospects than by calculations on the most convenient method to put an end to the conflict with Japan."
- Herodotus may be the first historian to apply a systematic investigation of facts to his historiography but that doesn't mean his account of the Battle of Marathon doesn't favor the Greek perspective.
- I would guess that inaccuracy in US public school educations stems more from sins of omission than sins of self delusion particularly given a national culture that despises nuance- politically charged issues are generally glossed over or simply omitted.
- To make any really fair comparison between countries, you'd have to compare teachings stripped of any national political interest- a nearly inconceivable task.
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@n8nrgmi
especially you liberals of the forum, do you acknowledge that some folks hate trump so much that they become irrational?trump derangement syndrome or TDS is where someone hates trump so much that they become irrational in how they perceive him.
The term "derangement syndrome" was first coined by Charles Krauthammer in defense of Bush during the run up to the the Iraq War. Krauthammer later admitted he would not have supported the war if he'd known that Bush's WMD claims were manufactured lies. So we note that from its original incarnation, the side derided as "deranged" turned out to be on the correct side of history according to the man calling those folks deranged back in 2003.
Let's also remember that Krauthammer, who died in 2018, lived long enough to side with the deranged when his phrase came to be applied to Trump.
- "a moral disgrace"
- "Trump offered a dazzling array of other reasons for disqualification: habitual mendacity, pathological narcissism, profound ignorance and an astonishing dearth of basic human empathy."
- "Bungled collusion is still collusion"
- "Trump was elected to do politically incorrect — and needed — things ... He was not elected to do crazy things, starting with his tweets... If he cannot distinguish between the two, Trump Derangement Syndrome will only become epidemic."
That is, even the guy who came up with the idea of TDS now faults the president for our present national derangement.
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When I was working as a baker I won Westword Magazine’s Best Biscuits in Denver
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@crossed
On december 21 we are having the Bethlehem star being able to be viewed in our night sky's.
Not a star but the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn as seen from Earth.
This is the very same star that was said to have lead the three wise man to baby jesus.
There are many theories regarding the nature of the Star of Bethlehem. There closest conjunction would have been 7 BC and the census of Judea took place in 6 CE, 13 years later.
This is the same star that baby jesus had on his birthday.
Luke suggests that Jesus was 2 years old when the magi were guided by the Star of Bethlehem.
This star has not appeared in over 8000 years
Jesus was born 2000 years ago so that would not be the Star of Bethlehem. The conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn happens every 20 years.
The star that baby jesus had on the day of his birthday Is happening december 21.
That's the conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn- which happens every 20 years.
It has been rumored that jesus was born on december 25. Just a 4 day difference.
Since that rumor didn't start until the 3rd century, the same time that Christians invented the feast of Christmas to supplant the pagan feast of Saturnalia which was celebrated on Dec 25, let's assume that the celebration is meant to be more a traditional continuity than an historic assertion.
The same star that was said to appear on december 25 on the day jesus is born. is happening december 21 2020.Meaning that chrismas might really be jesus birthday or it is 4 days off and jesus birthday is really december 21.
- Not a star,
- probably two years after Jesus was born, and
- probably not
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@fauxlaw
Do I hear whispered echoes of a similar "passport" from 30 years ago when you were worried about AIDS in a sexual frenzy that suddenly went cold turkey until you had proof of clearance from that plague?
- There's no such thing as immunity to AIDS.
- What immunity passport from 1990 was demanded by Progressives?
- What event specifically are you refering to?
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@n8nrgmi
I don't think we are anywhere close to an accurate assessment of COVID-19's scope, impact, or risk. We are seeing significant increases in deaths from heart attack, diabetes, high blood pressure, kidney failure, etc. that aren't COVID but seem clearly related but not yet understood. Just because you didn't die when you got infected doesn't mean you wont die from the organ damage COVID does down the road. Even infected people who never had a symptom in 2020 may yet die from this disease years down the road. We know some will but we have no idea how many will. Doctors predict that people who had the disease may have a significantly shorter life span than people who successfully avoid infection. We should also keep in mind that diseases like this can mutate into deadlier or more persistent forms. We have the capacity and technology to shut down the virus to a quite manageable state but we lack the discipline to refrain from society for 6 or 8 weeks.
In places were more than 2% of the population was infected, life expectancy numbers are expected to decrease in the short term. So when Americans look back on 2020, we will note that China took a hard economic hit for 8 weeks in a fairly oppressive and illiberal fashion, but then reopened slowly and will now close the year already out of recession and with a likely increase in Chinese life expectancy for the year while the US will see a decreased life expectancy and a recession for at least a couple of more quarters because half of the US keeps thinking up new reasons why they can't just hunker down for 6 to 8 weeks. Why isn't economic recovery and improved life expectancy a sufficient reason to inspire the requisite small acts of self-discipline and personal hygiene from every citizen?
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@fauxlaw
- Ohio backed the elected President in 6 of these 10 elections. (60% of the time)
- 1944 Ohio voted vs. FDR
- Of the last 20 Presidential elections Ohio backed the loser 3 times:
- 1944 Dewey
Ohio backed both the winner and the loser???? Nope.
"vs." means "against." So these items agree- vs FDR, for Dewey means the same thing
- In your OP you claimed
- "Ohio has backed the elected President in all but 2 elections" since 1944 and you claimed
- "[since 1944] Ohio backed the loser only twice: Nixon in 1960, and Trump in 2020."
- two distinct claims which you now seem to be conflating.
- I showed you that there have only been 10 elections since 1944 with an elected President on the ticket and Ohio voted against that elected president 4 times, not twice as you claimed.
- I showed you that Ohio backed the losing candidate 3 times, not twice as you claimed and your long reply merely confirmed my correction of you.
I don't find 85% agreement as baffling or improbable or remarkable as you do.But your string of elections determined that OPH accuracy was only 60%, not 85, and no, you've misinterpreted. I find 85% a pretty accurate result, and remarkable considering OH's political ups and downs, as you noted.
Nope, read again. Ohio voted with the elected president 60% of the time and voted for the winning candidate 85% as I corrected you and you have now confirmed.
not a > 100-fold increaseYes. I slipped a decimal, but that makes it worse. I four years, a 21% error rate fell to 3%, with a 10X increase in number of ballots? And that makes sense to you? AS I told HistoryBuff, there were detailed instructions in the 2016 election, too, so there's no valid justification for a 10X improvement. Ignoring condition of ballots, ignoring signature verification, and changing voting rules without the benefit of the state legislature make more sense, and all that happened.
No it doesn't make it worse. Try applying the common principle that many projects show great improvement in accuracy when comparing second attempts to first attempts. Seems quite ordinary.
- SECOND REQUEST- can you provide source for 2016/2020 mail-in ballot error rates?
certified by elected Republicans.Yeah, never-Trumpers. Might as well be Democrats.
- If every Republican who speaks the truth to Trump is ousted you will soon be left with an all liars party. Perhaps you are already there.
- SECOND REQUEST-can you provide source for 78/21 split in Republican mail-in vote? The NY TImes reported a 78/21 split in mail in ballots overall but I can't find a party breakdown for mail-in.
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Third election conspiracy: In PA, the count of same-day election ballots plus absentee ballots [not the same as mail-in ballots, as the mail-ins were not requested, they were just sent out] resulted in an election that Trump won at 48.2% to Hillaryous 47.5% - a 0.7% spread. The 2020 election result of just those ballots resulted in a similar spread, also favoring Trump, wherein 95% of Republicans voted for Trump and 5% for Hillaryous. However, the mail-in ballots resulted in a much larger spread for Biden wherein we are expected to believe that 21% of registered Republicans switched their vote to Biden, and only 79% voted for Trump. Statistically, the comparison of same-day/absentee to mail-in is, as well, baffling to statistical probability.
- Because Trump actively discouraged mail-in voting, I don't find it at all baffling that mail-in voters skewed heavy against Trump. A Republican likely to vote for Trump was also far more likely to wait until election day.
- The NY TImes reported a 78/21 split in mail in ballots overall but I can't find a party breakdown for mail-in (and I'm skeptical that the Republican breakdown is the same as the overall stat- what is the source for the Republican numbers?
Are we beginning to see a trend?
Yes, you are frequently baffled by stats that aren't all that surprising.
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@fauxlaw
First election conspiracy theory: No one can describe why, in the string of the last 14 presidential elections [back to FDR in 1944] Ohio has backed the elected President in all but 2 elections....
- The sentence is incomplete but it is not true that no one can describe why Ohio voted for Trump in 2020. For example, The AP offered fairly succinct post-election description about why Ohio is no longer the bellweather state it once was, "Ohio’s population no longer mirrors the nation. It’s whiter, slightly older and less educated than the U.S. on whole."
- 14 presidential elections takes us to 1968
- 20 presidential elections takes us to 1944
- only 10 of those 20 elections featured a candidate who was also an elected President.
- Ohio backed the elected President in 6 of these 10 elections. (60% of the time)
- 1944 Ohio voted vs. FDR
- 1956
- 1972
- 1980 Ohio voted vs. Carter
- 1984
- 1992 Ohio voted vs. Bush
- 1996
- 2004
- 2012
- 2020 Ohio voted vs Trum
Ohio backed the loser only twice: Nixon in 1960, and Trump in 2020.
- Of the last 20 Presidential elections Ohio backed the loser 3 times:
- 1944 Dewey
- 1960 Nixon
- 2020 Trump
That is a remarkable string of predictable election behavior that baffles statistical probability, particuarly since every state in the country has swapped blue/red often.
- Considering that Ohio roughly modeled some of the core demographic and political dynamics of those elections and in some elections Ohio politics actually drove the national strategy, I don't find 85% agreement as baffling or improbable or remarkable as you do.
- I'm unclear as to the nature of your first conspiracy theory. Are you suggesting that Trump won Ohio by corrupt means?
Second election conspiracy: In PA, 2016, there were some 200K mail-in ballots; the first time PA flirted with mail-in ballots. IN 2020, PA had 2.5M mail-in ballots, a >100-fold increase.
- from some 200K to 2.5M is a ten-fold increase, not a > 100-fold increase
Of course, all lazily point to Covid-19 imposed restrictions, but the same restrictions applied to OH, FL, and other states coincidentally won by Trump, and states who have longer experience with mail-in balloting, and who had not near the troubles PA had with handling their over-bearing increase in this ballot type. What makes this conspiracy particularly troubling for Democrats to explain is
Democrats need explain fuck all in this particular. The PA election results were certified by elected Republicans.
why, with all the troubles of PA’s novice effort, their percentage of erroneous, discarded ballots dropped significantly from 2016, which was in the 20th percentile of erroneous ballot discards, whereas 2020, with a 100-fold increase
(ten fold)
in mail-in ballots, the erroneous, discarded ballots dropped to just 3% of the total number of ballots cast. Explain that phenomenon, Democrats.It also baffles statistical probability.
- So- your interpretation is that a 20% error rate in voting is not an unacceptable anomaly that must improved upon in any second effort but rather the norm from which a 3% discard rate is suspiciously over-improved? I don't find that very convincing.
- I've looked on pa.gov's and fec.gov and I don't find any recorded discard numbers...can you give a source for these stats?
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@n8nrgmi
seems like one state suing another over that state's management of its own election is a non-starter. My perception is that the vote in Texas is more corrupt than in most states- I would think Texas would have more to lose than to win in a world where states can sue other states over how they constitutionally they run their vote. Even the AP seems fairly comfortable reporting that the lawsuit's most charitable interpretation is a promotional stunt for a Paxton pardon. I assume this move stands no chance.
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(found poem)
When you're praying on yourself
then maybe god he might not hear you
'cause he's hearing many others
too so what you really need to do
is something that is different
cause then that's when god will hear you.
Just saying when you're praying
that you're being very hungry and
you're praying on your brothers too
you pray to god
for the kebab
with special sauce.
but wait for god to hear you
'cause he's hearing many others
too so what you really need to do
is pray to god
for the kebab
with special sauce.
'cause that's when god will hear you
when you're preying on all others
every god has got to hear you when
you pray to god
for the kebab
with special sauce.
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The Snow Man
One must have a mind of winter
To regard the frost and the boughs
Of the pine-trees crusted with snow;
And have been cold a long time
To behold the junipers shagged with ice,
The spruces rough in the distant glitter
Of the January sun; and not to think
Of any misery in the sound of the wind,
In the sound of a few leaves,
Which is the sound of the land
Full of the same wind
That is blowing in the same bare place
For the listener, who listens in the snow,
And, nothing himself, beholds
Nothing that is not there and the nothing that is.
-Wallace Stevens
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On a Christmas Eve a happy snowman
Stood and dreamed beside a cottage door
How the children loved their friend the snowman
And the funny fedora he wore
When they said goodnight they told the snowman
That a gift for him was on the tree
So he called himself a lucky snowman
Just like one of the family was he
The cottage porch looked beautiful and bright
the holly wreath was turned on for the night
When all at once it caught on fire and fell
He couldn't knock, he couldn't ring the bell
He couldn't run for help, he couldn't call
But then he had to save the children after all
He knew he'd melt away, and yet the snowman
Threw himself across the burning floor
How the children missed their friend the snowman
But they'll always remember him for
A heart that was brave and the joy that he gave
And the funny fedora he wore
-Gary, Phillip, Dennis and Lindsay Crosby
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