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So, I clearly had the wrong call on Earth. That's my bad, and I understand if some people sus me over it. I think I was pretty thorough in explaining my reasons and I still feel that those were justified, though clearly, I need to listen to Badger's gut reads more closely.
That being said, we now have a loose thread: how was there no NK? SirAnon did a pretty good breakdown of how this could have happened, and I think we should be able to eliminate at least the first of these options.
We have several people who remain without full claims, myself included. I do not have a protective role. GP claimed Hated, That2 claimed Vanilla, MC claimed lynchproof (I'll come back to that), and SirAnon claims not to have used his role. Wylted has soft claimed a role that affects lynching, and based on his posts so far, he doesn't have a role that afforded protection. Badger hasn't said anything about it. Danielle hasn't said anything about it. Both of them have no reason to hide that they successfully defended someone from an NK, since that would town-confirm whoever they defended (or town confirm themselves, in case they're bulletproof). That just leaves Speed, who I'd like to hear from ASAP. If there's something to this, then the apparent mafia strongman either isn't something they can use repeatedly or they had some other ability that they chose over the strongman. The latter could be true considering that they knew the doc was dead.
Assuming that Speed says nothing pertinent, we can move onto the other explanations.
Anyway, coming back to MC, I said it in the last DP: we need to double-check his lynchproof in this DP. Unusual as it might be, a 1X lynchproof mafia would be a very effective way to throw off town without doing something ridiculously bastard. We have no reason not to re-test him in this DP while we gather information.
VTL MC
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@PREZ-HILTON
My justification has to do with perception of the team externally. Actually I will say it. They are "America's team"
Alright, so the discrepancy might have more to do with the differences in roles, with how the team and those associated with it (e.g. the fans) are perceived being important for roles that affect voting. In that case, I'll at least say that my issues with Earth's claim don't include his justification, though I still have enough reason to VTL him at the moment.
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@That2User
That's why they're tortured, because of my team's performance
So it specifically references your team’s performance. That would be in line with everyone’s justification so far (mine included) except Earth.
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@Earth
I assumed you forgot.
Made quite plain that I haven’t. Partially explains my current vote.
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@SirAnonymous
Yes, but this is particularly strange, given that the two known Vanillas emphasize the mediocrity of the teams while this emphasizes fan attitudes. Not saying that a given justification cannot be weird, just that I’d expect some consistency with other known Vanilla claims and I’m not seeing it.
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@Earth
Yes.
We already knew that was your claimed justification, but thanks for confirming.
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@SirAnonymous
That was probably too much information. Giving away your justification can let people guess what your role is.That being said, I wonder what role would have that as a justification? (Please don't answer that, and please, no one else openly guess at it. I can wait until after the game to satisfy my curiosity.)
That2 claimed Vanilla at the start of the DP. We don’t have to guess. I do find that justification odd for a Vanilla.
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@That2User
Yeah I torture my fans, they clown me, why?
So that is the justification for your role? It has nothing to do with your team’s performance? That’s a strange justification for Vanilla.
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Also, I’ll put this out again because no one responded to me earlier:
Does anyone else have a justification for their role that focuses on factors external to the team (e.g. fans)?
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@SirAnonymous
Two reasons. Firstly, I don't think there would be enough votes. Secondly, (and this is a bad reason, but very real) I'm scared to go down that route. If he were to flip town, I think I might be the next target, using up town's last lynch and costing us the game.
To both points, I’ll point out that there have been several of us who have sussed Earth in spite of his claim. That might still leave us shy of the necessary votes, but many of us would be likely candidates for a lynch in the next DP. The fact that you’re a weak protective role doesn’t make your claim suddenly sus if he flips Doc.
That being said, while I think that Earth is all kinds of scummy behaviorally and I don’t trust his claim at all, I too doubt that we can get the votes. Willing to try though, because it seems like we’re not getting enough support for a GP lynch at this point. I frankly don’t trust Badger’s strong gut read on Earth, and we have only limited reason to believe that scum doesn’t have access to fake role claims.
So I’m willing to push it here and now: VTL Earth
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@badger
I feel like you've been very slow to admit to things. The MC/GP link. The credibility of Earth's claim. The latter is more forgivable but FOS'ing Earth should always be to FOS me by proxy.
I'm honestly trying to figure out what I'm missing. I sussed both MC and GP together when I gave my reads, though I'll admit I spent more time on MC's claim itself and his reads than on the balance of MC's and GP's roles after the former claimed.
I also challenged the credibility of Earth's claim very shortly after he made it. I don't know why I should instantly sus you if I'm sussing Earth, though you're welcome to explain why I should. I'm guessing this has to do with your breakdown of the doctor role, but let's face it: if scum was going to claim doctor, your setup wasn't going to make that more likely. At worst, you helped provide justifications that Earth hasn't given yet.
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@badger
Whiteflame has been my big FOS for a while now. I was building up to the courage for it. Speed/Wylted lynch just flowed out of GP's post to me.
Don't really understand why you need courage to say it. You're not the first one to sus me, though I'd like to know where that FOS comes from. Sounds like now's not the time to ask, though.
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@SirAnonymous
To be honest, I don't think justifications matter much here. They've been all over the place.
I think they're worth considering. I'm not saying that a justification needs to make a lot of sense - it really doesn't, and I've been derailed by a strange claim that was real too many times in the past for me to make that mistake here - but I am saying that there are likely some through-lines that we should expect to be consistent between players. So, I'll put this more broadly:
Does anyone else have a justification that focuses on factors external to the team (e.g. fans)?
We should all be able to answer this. I'll say straight up: mine references a player on the team and its overall performance as justifications.
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@SirAnonymous
Regardless of who we want to lynch next DP, we should start by lynching Chris again to make sure he isn't a 1x lynchproof mafioso or something like that.
Yeah, I mentioned something to that effect earlier.
Alright, long story short, I'm buying the claim. It's partially because you waited this long that I am buying it because a) it's not really a CC to Earth's claim, so it doesn't look like an attempt to shift a lynch to him, b) you're not really pushing back on the GP lynch, so you're not trying to derail that lynch, and c) it's just generally an odd claim and a weird time to make it if your goal was to accomplish something with it. Maybe that's part of the point: to provide an innocuous, weird, largely unprovable role (especially since you said you wouldn't use it due to the risk) with a rather odd justification to make yourself look pretty townie with little effort. However, I really don't think that this is a fake claim given to you by the mod, and it's rather odd for scum to point out that they likely only got character claims, since that would make any role claim risky and therefore the weird ones (like babysitter) inherently sus. All of this could be some complex effort to make town more likely to accept a weird claim, but at the moment, I'm having trouble believing that this is some kind of scum end run.
So for now, I'm accepting it, which begs the question: why do we have this stark split between claimed roles? We have a Babysitter and a Lynchproof, the latter of which we have essentially confirmed, neither of which I can recall seeing in too many games on this site. We also have a Hated and a Doctor, the former of which is somewhat common and the latter of which is basically in every game. While the Babysitter role, however flavored, isn't a direct CC to the Doctor, it does make me question whether a Doctor is a necessary addition to this game. We presumably do have another role in this game that affects lynches (WyIted has hinted as much), so it's plausible that we have more than one protective role in this game as well. That being said, I found Earth's justification pretty sus. None of the claims I've seen aside from his have focused their justifications on elements outside of the contents of their teams and the success thereof. Yet, from Earth and Earth alone, we see that the entire basis for his claim focuses not on the players, but on the fans of the team and what they choose to crowdfund. It just doesn't fit. I don't think that's reason enough to lynch him by itself, but especially with all the behavioral oddities, my suspicions with Earth keep piling up.
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@SirAnonymous
Ha, it suddenly occurred to me that I didn't even consider whether or not I should character claim. My role's out, so it doesn't much matter. I will if people want me to.
I have thoughts, but I want the full claim with justification first.
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@Danielle
I'm not exactly excited by a no lynch, especially given that I feel that the lynch on GP is justified, but if we cannot rally behind a lynch on GP, then I'd currently prefer a no lynch to a random lynch (my misgivings about Earth aside, I don't think we have reason enough to lynch him given his claim).
That being said, I do think we can start to puzzle some of this out, and the more I've thought about it, the less I'm liking GP's justification. He responded to my request to get this information with "Who likes the Falcons?" and then claimed he was just fishing for scum. He then said that they're "hated for choking in critical games." Setting aside the fact that they're hardly alone in that regard, the only specific justification I've heard for that is focused on a single Super Bowl, which came from Earth. I might feel that GP's justification makes more sense if that came from him, given that Oro's role included a references specific games ("the Bill O’Brien disaster" references an 0-4 streak at the start of the 2020 season), but it didn't. I'm seeing a much more specific basis for having both the Bears and Texans listed as Vanilla than GP provided for justifying the Falcons as Hated. Pie's may not reference a specific player or coach, but it provides details about the team and its performance that are unique to it and that line it up pretty well with Vanilla. My own justification references a specific player and relates it to the team's performance. The fact that GP seems to have left out any and all specifics from his justification doesn't sit well with me.
GP still looks like clear pick to me. I don't have enough reason to suspect anyone new from my list of townreads yet, but I think there's valid reason to sus GP over his claim at this point, and the balancing issue just isn't enough reason for me to dismiss his strange behavior and the oddities of his claim. Don't know why WyIted keeps treating GP as the choice of last resort, and at the moment, I don't have good enough reason to sus either SirAnon or Speedrace enough to VTL either of them. So my vote will stay on him for now unless I'm given good reason to prefer someone else or a no lynch.
VTL GP
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Alright, I consider that sufficient. MC is either lynchproof or he has some rare role that allows him to be effectively lynchproof unless certain conditions are met, like the Gallis (which we can test just by keeping a single vote on him when we reach a majority for the lynch). Given that that's pretty unlikely anyway, I'm going to function with this claim as proven and unvote.
This also forces me to reevaluate my reads, which will take some time. Much as it doesn't absolutely town-confirm MC and I still think he's a little off behaviorally, a lynchproof scum seems like bastard modding. I suppose it's possible that he's a 1X lynchproof scum that was meant to throw us off, but we can test that in the next DP by doing this again, so I'm going to set that aside. I'm also going to set aside the possibility that he's some kind of third party for now and focus on reconsidering my reads, though I'd still say that GP is the best lynch at the moment.
One thing I'll note: Wylted said that his role balances GP's Hated. If this is a game where the roles have been balanced as MC suggested, then either we're missing a role that balances Wylted/MC's roles, or there are enough Vanillas/Vanilla-likes that the balance skews towards positive PRs among the remainder of players. Just something to keep in mind.
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@Earth
I gotchu.VTL Mister
Thanks, now we just wait for mod confirmation.
In the meantime, you've been pinged a few times to answer some questions and accusations, particularly from Danielle. Mind getting to those?
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Based on the vote count, he clearly wasn't lynched by having 6 votes. That being said, I don't think we should end the test here. He could be Loved, which we could test with one more vote on him. At base, I think we should test that before we start peeling off.
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FYI, I find all of this rather intriguing. Enjoying it so far.
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@MisterChris
I acknowledge this weakness in my hypothesis, and I have before (back in DP1 somewhere).I think you're mistaking my rationale for being surety. I'm not certain of this at all. It simply seems to be the best point of exploration out of all other options to me.And my rationalization does not translate to me being unwilling to pursue other leads. I just have not been presented any that compel me to abandon this one.
My issue isn't that you have a hypothesis with problems, it's that you're using that hypothesis to narrow down targets for lynching rather than focusing chiefly on behavioral reads. I understand wanting to whittle down options once you have a few scum reads, but I think there are more than enough behavioral tells in play already to do that. It comes off as a shortcut to avoid focusing on something that doesn't require trying to see into the mod's head. Maybe I'm just seeing more emphasis on this than you meant to impart, but it stood out to me.
I was operating under the assumption that that was a given. My role PM does not specify, but I thought this was how it functioned, because I seem to remember that being how it functioned in the past.This is why I stated I was "OK with being confirmed." I'm allowing town to decide, knowing that our one shot for this DP could also be used elsewhere. You're also ignoring the value of having that confirmation. It's not as if confirming me is a "waste of a lynch."
I don't think we should ever assume something is a given, particularly when it can limit our options. It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen a similar role yield a "no lynch" and end the DP. Maybe you honestly didn't know, though it genuinely seems odd to me that you wouldn't ask Mharman before suggesting that it would be OK to do. He just confirmed that it wouldn't end the DP, but it was pertinent information. I would also say that sacrificing the opportunity to lynch is a pretty big cost for semi-confirming your role, though maybe that's just me.
In any case, now we have no reason not to test it. VTL MC.
What? This is basic game design. Any good mafia game designer is going to try to balance roles as much as possible on both sides to ensure fair play.
We've seen multiple game designs that don't fit the obvious, and I myself have been distracted by the mistaken belief that there must be balanced roles in a game, which has led me to soft town confirm players who ended up being scum. Especially given that Luna had input on this and he tends to throw wrenches into games, I don't think we should function under the assumption that what's basic to most games is the reality here.
There is literally no world in a game (even non-role madness) that employed the joint efforts of Lunatic & Mharman that a 12 player game would have 4-5 vanillas. This is why I requested excess vanillas to claim. Having 3 is already a good amount. If extra vanillas came forward, that would implicate that some of those vanilla claims are scum. We would have a decent springboard to investigate further.Is this your way of claiming vanilla? I don't see why you are making the assumption town is so weak that basic balancing mechanics aren't needed.
You clearly distrust That2's role claim, which is fine (though I think it would be rather strange for someone on a scum team to make a claim that stands out that much at the start of the DP without pressure), but I'm functioning based on existing claims and what we know. We have two claimed PRs between you and Earth. We have two known Vanillas. We have one claimed Vanilla and one claimed Hated, which as I already said, is basically Vanilla. If we take all of them at face value, that's effectively 4 Vanillas already. You can say that Luna and Mharman wouldn't create that setup, but we have no reason whatsoever to believe that they'd create any specific setup here.
As for calling for Vanilla claims, I still think it's anti-town for someone who is Vanilla to claim at this point just to dissuade you from your current line of thinking, but that has nothing to do with what my role is and everything to do with my repeated statements that we're actively granting scum a much smaller pool of potential PRs to NK.
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Also, unvote for now. Given this new information from MC, I'd prefer to avoid a sudden lynch on GP before we test it, assuming that it does not end the DP to do so.
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@Mharman
@MisterChris
My strategy isn't really depending on any sort of theme split. It's moreso to do with character distribution. It seems reasonable to me that with 8 divisions and 12 players, each character will be (mostly) evenly distributed across the divisions. The scum team having fake claims is precisely why a 3 player group is more suspect. The scum team chooses a fake claim, and that fake character artificially inflates certain divisions with new players.The fact that AFC West had no claims at all makes the theory that AFC West is scum viable. It's not provable (yet,) but it makes a lot of sense.
I really don't buy this framing. What you're doing here is focusing on mod psych in a way that I don't find persuasive. It's possible that Mharman was meticulous in his selections to ensure that he covered every division and conference semi-evenly. It's also possible (and I would say more likely) that Mharman selected teams he wanted to fill the roles he wanted and didn't really think about their distribution across divisions and conferences. If that's the case, then the distribution would be more random than your hypothesis of even distribution would suggest, and if that falls apart, then the rest of your theory does, too. I'm fine with exploring some mod psych, but this wouldn't be the first time that we've been led astray by efforts to try and determine what character claims should be in the game or, in this case, what sets of character claims should be present. It's possible that you're right, but Mharman could have been using any number of methods to determine which teams he would include in this game. Maybe part of his setup was an effort to create that even distribution. Maybe it wasn't. I'm not seeing a reason why Mharman would necessarily aim to do that, so no, I'm not on the same page as you on this one. It makes sense if and only if we assume a lot about how this game was structured.
It seems the general plan now is to lynch GP and pursue a full claim from me next DP.It won't be particularly harmful for me to claim now, I don't think, as I don't really have a PR. My role does counterbalance GP's, however, and it legitimizes his claim a lot more I think.I see no reason to avoid claiming this DP, because it could save us a mislynch and help redirect us to better options.Anyway, I am the San Francisco 49ers and I am Lynchproof (except in MYLO/LYLO situations). My justification is that I am a team known for overcoming severe player injuries.I am OK with being lynched this DP to sort of "semi-confirm" myself. I think it's pretty obvious how my role relates to GP's. It compliments it quite well balance-wise.
I'll start with the obvious: if you're lynchproof, at base, we should be testing that. That being said, before we go lynching you to test it:
Mharman, would lynching someone who is lynchproof end the DP?
The fact that no one has asked that yet, including you, is pretty suspect to me since it could easily have cost us a lynch.
That being said, I also don't buy this notion that we need roles to balance each other out. It's more mod psych and, while it can make some sense in some instances (particularly with role madness games), I'd hesitate to apply it more broadly. We have two known Vanillas in the game. If we buy That2's claim, that's 3 Vanillas so far, and I highly doubt that anyone else who is Vanilla would claim in response to your last major post where you asked "Is anyone else vanilla?" since that would necessarily reduce the pool of possible PRs for scum while providing town little to no useful information. Town could be populated by 4 or 5 Vanillas for all we know, which makes it all the more surprising that there is a Hated in this game, which is a negative utility Vanilla. Having a lynchproof makes more sense in a context where town has fewer PRs than does a Hated unless we assume a scum team with scant little in the way of PRs, though we "know" that they at least have an RB if we believe Earth's claim. In a game where there are a ton of town Vanillas, balancing out a lynchproof seems entirely unnecessary.
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@RationalMadman
Let's go meta. How would I think of me?
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@badger
Long as he isn't posting claiming to be a mod, changing his profile name to strongly resemble mine, or adding details to his profile that indicate he is a mod, it's not something I would consider a ban-worthy offense.
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@RationalMadman
I'm pretty sure that most of my information doesn't apply to you, but hey, it'd be a happy surprise if we both were microbiologists. Would love to talk about your research sometime. And hey, at least you're offering to coach others on the site. Still think that's a nice thing to do.
I'm really not sure what you're planning to do, so I can't speak to any rules that you might violate. So far, none.
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@RationalMadman
Feel free. The information isn't pertinent to you, but if you want to just copy-paste all the information from my profile onto yours, have at it.
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@RationalMadman
Whatever you say. You know where the lines are, so walk right up to them if you must.
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@RationalMadman
Who added the rules in the first place?
Most of them were before my time, but that doesn't mean that any of them were added flippantly, and a lot of them were added or amended through trial and error as well as discussion with the community.
I think you are having impure thoughts about the lesbians kissing; I am levels ahead of all trolls.
You're welcome to your wrong opinion.
Fuck you and your BS. You want to play this game buddy? Let's fucking go. You wait, I will show you a war. I promised it before, now you call it.
Actually rather flattered that your using my PFP. I'm a big fan of Fate/Zero, would love if more people became aware of it, and I think this particular picture is rather well done. Enjoy using it for as long as you want.
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Unvote
I'm not going to keep a vote up on an un-CC'd doctor, but there's a lot I don't like about this claim. It's already been mentioned that he did so with relatively little pressure and his response to that was that he anticipated more pressure. That's unnecessarily defensive. Danielle also makes a good point regarding his knowledge of the NFL, which he said was minimal up front (either real or a scum tactic to explain why he might not contribute much), after which he claimed what he believed was an obvious link between the Falcons and the Hated role that required rather specific knowledge of a recent Super Bowl. I get that he's working and therefore may not be able to respond in detail to questions that we have asked, but I directed several messages at him before he posted his claim and he hasn't responded to any of my reasons for sussing him. All of this is not to mention that the claim itself could easily be fake especially given that we've been discussing a doctor claim for quite a while in this DP, though proving that would require outing more protective roles and I'd rather not do that. I still sus Earth, but I'll hold off on pushing for a lynch on him.
As for MC, I'm really not looking for another full claim. Assuming that Earth and That2 aren't lying, we already have two roles, including one full claim, on the table in this DP. Much as I am sussing him, I don't think getting another claim helps us, particularly as we already know that scum have fake claims available to them. I'm willing to put my vote on GP for now, as I do think that that is the best choice for a lynch this DP, though I would like to see answers to the questions and accusations against Earth and MC before the DP ends.
VTL GP
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@RationalMadman
We've discussed this before and it is not against any site rules for one profile to use another profile's picture, regardless of content. You're demanding that we add rules that don't exist and enforce them. That's not going to happen. If you want to push a referendum about it to change the rules, go for it.
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@Danielle
I'm down to lynch GP or Earth, though at the moment, Earth's behavior is the most jarring for me. I agree that everything he has posted in this DP looks like fluff, and the dancing he keeps engaging in just doesn't jive with this sudden interest in "evidence" that he knows doesn't exist. I think GP looks kinda scummy behaviorally (I also agree that getting rid of the Hated doesn't do any substantial harm to town beyond losing a member, so even if he is town, it's no big loss), but Earth more so. I'm still willing to shift back, but for now, I'm pushing for a full claim from Earth.
Unvote
VTL Earth
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@Earth
I'll try to read the day when I get off work, but I am going to let you know I will need substantial evidence if you want me to lynch GP.
For someone who apparently wants substantial evidence to pursue a lynch now, you seemed perfectly willing to VTL Oro based on some extremely flawed logic in the last DP. You changed course on sussing him over his inactivity, danced between two different theme splits and sussed him over responding to one of them, sussed me over my "first few posts" without explaining why, and sussed MC and Badger for no apparent reason at all. Going into this DP, you ignored all of that, wanted to push WyIted for a claim instead, asked a pretty basic question that I'm sure you already knew the answer to (you've played long enough that you know why mafia would have reason to target Pie), and now you're demanding substantial evidence to start sussing GP despite never having given any thoughts before on GP's claim, behavior, or responded to a single post GP has made. I don't know why you're suddenly setting a standard for evidence with someone you haven't interacted with or talked about at all when you've been so willing to bounce between other players throughout the last two DPs.
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@PREZ-HILTON
Setting aside the fact that the vast majority of the reasoning I've given has nothing to do with the timing of GP's claim, the problem here isn't that he claimed late. The problem is that he was clearly willing to full claim (didn't exactly require pressure to give his role), but chose to exclude that information from his first post. I agree that it's pretty anti-town to full claim without pressure early in DP1, but he does it willingly the vast majority of the time. It's his meta. If he was showing an indication that he was planning on changing that meta in a way that wasn't "let's move the role claim further down the page," then you might have a point, but it would also be dramatically different from his style of play and we would have every reason to sus him over it. Changes in behavior warrant suspicion, even if they're positive changes for playstyle.
As for your thoughts on the theme, much as I have problems with the division/conference basis for a theme split, it's at least a solid distinction, as are the mascots, though again, I don't think we have sufficient evidence to conclude that either is true. Jumping to "teams that play dirty vs ones that don't" seems a lot more arbitrary, especially with a claim of "Hated" on the table that you apparently buy. Teams that play dirty are generally hated themselves. It's made all the more arbitrary by how easily you swapped in the Ravens for the Patriots. And all of this is compounded by the fact that we know scum has a set of safe fake claims, which means that we're not likely to see claims that would stand out like the Patriots, regardless of what the split is.
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Alright, finally have a break and able to stay awake for a bit longer. Time for reads.
I do think our odds of hitting scum are likely higher by looking at the people who are on the lynch. There were six people on it aside from Pie: Earth, Danielle, That2, MC, Badger and SirAnon. I don't think every scum was on this lynch (and I'll give my thoughts for who I think was off the lynch, though that's due to other reads), but I do think that two of them were.
Badger: Lean town. These gut-based reads don't come off as mafia tactics, and much as he did join the lynch late, it came off as more of an effort to get any lynch after trying to unsuccessfully make the Barney lynch work. It's not a strong lean, but the timing of his shift makes more sense as frustrated town than calculating mafia.
Earth: Lean scum. There's a lot of strange from Earth in this game, and despite joining early, his push was to lynch was an OMGUS that he never got over for some reason. I pointed out a number of problems with his logic during DP1, which Speed agreed look pretty strange. I've had times where Earth's mistakes have made me sus him for reasons that ended up just being actual mistakes on his part. This doesn't look like a mistake. It looks like obviously flawed reasoning to continue pushing on Oro that he conveniently never defended before the hammer and hasn't mentioned once during this DP.
GP: Lean scum. My reasoning for this really hasn't changed and is largely behavioral: he came off as the "helpful townie" far more often than I've ever seen in DP1, and despite seeming less defensive in this DP, has more of a "oh just kill me if it will help you" attitude. I'm also not buying the Hated role, despite Earth's claims that it is obvious. If anything, Earth's defensiveness of his claim speaks to a partnership here.
That2: Lean town. This is a tough one. I think a lot of That2's behavior looks townie, but I'm trying to square her claim with the two existing Vanillas. That being said, I still think it would be very strange for That2 to claim Vanilla as part of a scum team after two town Vanillas are revealed. I just don't buy that this is something her scum partner would advocate doing. Maybe she just posted the claim of her own volition, but this speaks more to anti-town behavior than scum.
SirAnon: Lean town. Just generally seems like he's been giving a lot of good insights and I view the back-and-forth with Badger as a town vs. town argument.
Wylted: Lean town. Frankly, I don't think he'd push this lynch if he was scum, and this looks like Wylted to a "t": tunnel vision focused on a single quote that he's spinning way out of proportion. If he wasn't doing this, he'd be my scum read. Beyond that, the basic fact that Barney actually had to step out of this means that his relative absence was actual and not just an act. Hard to see him in the same light with that in mind.
MC: Lean scum. I'm trying to decide if MC's reads actually come from a theme split he thinks is happening or if this is an attempt to shift attention in a given direction and away from himself and his partners. Pushing strange theme splits could go either way. Suffice it to say that I don't buy "scum are likely hiding in NFC West and AFC South" as he's suggested. I haven't seen a good reason why we should accept a given theme yet, and this just doesn't give me anything to go on since conference/division splits could be entirely random. It seems especially weird that he'd push this particular theory when noting that scum has a pool of fake claims, since that would give them opportunities to avoid being added to larger groups like this unless they claimed on the early side. I think his logic is mostly good aside from this, but despite being my slightest scum read, he still makes my list.
Speed: Lean town. His contributions haven't been anything amazing, but I'm seeing a good deal of incisiveness and little effort on his part to derail or push a lynch, both of which are things I'd expect him to do as scum.
Danielle: Null. Incisive contributions, albeit short. Was early on the Oro lynch without joining a real wagon there, so it's hard to believe that this was a push to get a mislynch from her. Can't say I've seen anything that makes me swing either way strongly enough.
So, long story short, I think we should be lynching Earth this DP and I mean to push him on his logic after I get some sleep, but I'm willing to join the lynch on GP. VTL GP
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@Danielle
@That2User
@PREZ-HILTON
Alright, so a lot to unpack. Literally. I just moved all the big stuff into my house, so I'm exhausted. Still, I'll at least put in the time to make one big post before dinner and give my reads after I've had more downtime to consider.
First off, as someone who wasn't on the lynch, I think pursuing anyone on the basis that they were on the lynch alone isn't going to get us anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if some scum were on the lynch, but Pie was also on the lynch, and he was clearly town.
Second, I agree with Danielle regarding why mafia would kill Pie, though I'll add a couple of things. The question of whether Barney as scum would kill the main person who was calling him out is all WIFOM, so I'm reticent to go with the potential framing reason for why Pie was killed. Pie tends to be rather good at finding scum, especially post DP1, largely as an extension of that aggression and activity.
Third, and apparently I have to direct this at Wylted, your reasons for sussing me are all absurd. Responding to someone who makes a long post in a game they are not yet a part of (you jumped the gun and posted when you shouldn't have), a post that no one else chooses to point to or discuss at all, would have been incredibly sus because it would have been needlessly defensive. Beyond that, every single reason you listed is such a terrible basis for sussing me that I'm not surprised no one cared. GP regularly posts his full claim in his very first post in DP1. It's less common for him to keep information in reserve. He has full claimed when it was outright anti-town to full claim, and since he never even tried to suggest he had a PR, the notion that he was actively baiting an NK is just absurd. As for using big words, you know that's a baseless reason to call me out, since that's how I always post, whether I'm town or scum.
Fourth, That2User, I'm still trying to figure out why you're sussing me through all this, but deciding to claim Vanilla at the start of the DP was pretty anti-town even if it's hard to believe you'd do it as scum (strange choice for scum to claim Vanilla when we already know there were two Vanillas in this game). From what I can tell in this DP, you shifted from sussing Wylted and pursuing a full claim from him (I can't find anywhere that he posted his role, but apparently you were satisfied because... WyIted said he wouldn't claim unless he was closer to L1, I guess?) to sussing me apparently entirely on the basis that I'm pretty good at this game. Setting aside the fact that what you described (being unreadable, perceptive and effective at defending myself) are also points we can make about several other players in this game, it's an absurd reason to be pushing for a lynch, let alone for a full claim. We have a lot of behavioral information on the table, but you're still relying on preconceptions of me? I understand Wylted because he tends to tunnel based on small cues that he thinks gives someone away, even if they're absurd, but this is jut lazy.
Alright, I'm going to take a break and then give my reads after I've eaten something. And, in case it wasn't obvious, I'm not claiming with this pressure from Wylted and That2.
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Alright, I do feel more strongly about Barney's behavior than Oro's at this point. I can't say anyone else really stands out beyond GP, and we already have a full claim from him.
VTL Barney
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@Earth
I don't remember dismissing his inactivity as Scum, but maybe I said something along the lines of waiting for him to pop in or whatever. I remember Oro being serious about analysis and using crypto and shit, and while the latter seems to be frowned upon on DART, I still think he was rather aggressive as town. Seems mellow this game. Also, post #291(?) he seemed to misinterpreted my post. Secondly, I doubt mafia has access to any substantial pool of fake claims. Maybe what they have is something along the lines of 'type'. Mhar did say that some pools were better than others. Little odd but w/e.
You said that you thought it would "lead to nowhere" pursuing his activity, but fine, now you're interested. I've seen Oro go through phases when it comes to being more or less aggressive, even within the same game, so being a bit more mellow so far doesn't really throw me. He was a bit slower to run with the theme analysis, but my experience with him has been that he tends to explore themes early and I'm seeing that. He can be aggressive along those lines, though I don't think the lack of aggression sticks out to me in the same way it does for you.
As for the misinterpretation, you've actually presented two different themes in different places. Right now, your theme is "teams that made it to the Superbowl, but lost." Your theme in post #362 was exactly what you're saying it isn't now:
I predict the theme is something like Teams that never made it to the Superbowl (Mafia) vs everyone else.
So that misinterpretation seems at least somewhat valid, even though this post came after his response to you. As for the pool of claims, the only information we have about that pool is that some claims are better than others, so whether it's substantial or not is a guess. Maybe I'm doing too much WIFOM here, but given that we know scum have a pool of some amount, I doubt that they would actively select teams that set them on the scum side of an obvious theme split. I'd say that this theme split would be obvious to a scum team who knows their own characters up front.
I don't really like your post where you wonder why the Falcons would be hated. I'm not a football guy, but after hearing about LI, that would come straight to mind if Falcons were a Hated Townie.
Not sure why you're calling me out on this, but ignoring everyone else who also found the link between the role and character claims suspicious. Danielle called it out in post #39 and in great detail in #243 and That2 called it out in post #80, but they're not on your sus list. Beyond that, asking for the person to provide their justification is the obvious response when someone makes a full claim. Just because it seems obvious to you doesn't mean that it should be treated as obvious from the get-go.
I'll admit I am mostly gut reading Mister and Badger.
Alright.
This is Day 1. We have a ML. We can lynch someone I think is likely town, or we can either prove or disprove my theory. Not really rocket science which one I want lynched.
I agree that we need information, but the goal shouldn't be to just prove or disprove your theory. You seem really focused on testing this specific assumption as to what the theme split is, and frankly, I think it's too early to claim that any given theory has substantial merit. If we're going to lynch someone, it should be based on behavior first and theme second, preferably testing multiple theories on the theme with a single lynch if possible.
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@ILikePie5
As a townie, if you have scum reads, you say them and pursue them. Barney has done neither. He has asked a question to GP and didn’t follow up on it till I pointed it out. Me he’s straight up just OMGUS. No mention of why I was scummy earlier in the game. And me wanting to lynch him for pressuring GP is just straight up false.This is what I said: “Barney - Lean Scum - Dude’s a moderator and is inactive. He’s obviously lurking. The only contributory thing he’s done is the dashboard, but that’s all he does. He asked a question to GP. Idr if GP answered, but if he hasn’t, why hasn’t Barney followed up on it. It seems like an attempt to be scum hunting but not really.”Not only that but he admits he hasn’t followed up on GP, cause he asked him to answer the question again.
Didn't see this before I made the above post. I can see your point. I also just saw Barney's most recent posts and they come off pretty defensively, especially since your VTL has more to do with how he's acting against GP than with his choice to target GP at all. I'm still going to read through the DP, but at least right now, I'd be good with pursuing a full claim from Barney.
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@Earth
Made up my mind. Oro is scum.VTL Oro
I'm honestly just trying to understand how you're coming to this and it feels like I'm missing something. You dismissed his inactivity as a reason to sus him, and you've been pushing a theme dealing with losses and the split being teams that have never won a Super Bowl. I'm unclear what makes you think that the theme is losses, given that we only have one full claim. You could be right, but assuming that you are, it's likely that scum knows the theme and we know they have access to a pool of fake claims. Are you suggesting that Oro as scum chose a fake claim that also put him on the wrong side of the theme split, or that he just straight up claimed his actual character in hopes that we wouldn't figure out the split? Strikes me that either scenario doesn't really fit Oro's style of play.
Note that I'm not defending him. I'm personally on the fence about Oro, but you seem to have a strong reason to sus him that you're not telling us.
Don't like WF's first few posts.
Again, vague. What don't you like about them?
Oro, Mister, WF, Badger for scum?
Now we're just getting random. This is the first time I can see that you've mentioned MC and Badger. You've heaped us all together as possible scum with Oro, who you are actively sussing, though none of the rest of us have gotten anywhere near the same attention from you. That's not to mention that you have 4 people listed here, which is too many for a scum team. Do you have any reasons why any of these people come off as being on a team together, myself included?
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@ILikePie5
Whiteflame - Tilt Scum - I don’t like the fact that at the beginning, WF said: “Pie is engaging in some light scum hunting and giving some reasonable reads.” The only read I had provided was Oro being inactive and hating being scum. Not really a read tbh. His pursuance of GP also doesn’t make sense. He’s been in games where GP has role claimed after he’s character claimed. It’s not affiliation indicative. Or all of this is overthinking and I can’t read WF to save my life lol
Fair enough. I saw that as a read on Oro, or at least a reasonable perspective on. I will say that I've justified why I'm sussing GP beyond just claiming his role after his character, as you can see in #139. It's more of a behavioral read based on what he has said since he claimed.
As for Barney, much as I agree that he's been pretty inactive and his contributions have largely been repetitive, I don't see this as likely scum play. I think he would have stayed more up-to-date if he had a scum partner instead of focusing on posts he made earlier in the DP. I'd be good with getting a full claim in this DP, perhaps even from him, but like I said earlier, I don't want too many claims this DP and I want to make the most of what we get. I'm not convinced that he's the best one to push for a full claim, though I have to read back through the DP and see if that changes.
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@That2User
Of those within NFC West and AFC South, who would you want to investigate first?AFC South - OroNFC West - Whiteflame -PieThis is whyUnvoteVTL whiteflameCharacter claim
That's why he selected someone from that group (NFC West). It's not why he selected me, specifically. I'm fine with pursuing someone from this trio, but I want the choice to be considered. Until I hear why I'm the best choice among the three (with SirAnon and MC being the other two), I'm going to wait to claim.
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@ILikePie5
UnvoteVTL Whiteflame for claim
I'm unclear on why you're pursuing me for a claim, but if enough people agree, I'll do it. Like I just said to Oro, I think we should be careful about how much information we reveal in this DP.
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@oromagi
I am the Houston Texans.
Can't say I know too much about the Texans myself.
VTL Speedrace for claim
I think we need to be careful about how much more information we seek during this DP, especially given that we know that scum has fake claims and could potentially glean quite a bit from character claims. I'm fine with getting another character claim or two, even if that includes mine as Pie has suggested, but I think we should be selective about who we pressure for claims. Do you have a reason why you're pursuing Speed?
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...Alright then. Seems like some confusion happened overnight, but since it came from someone who is not in this game, I'll abstain from direct responses to him.
I don't read Badger as scum based on his hangover excuse. Generally, I don't like efforts to excuse minimal activity or weaker contributions, but considering that he has still at least been posting a decent amount, it came off more as a way to explain being a bit irritable. Don't really appreciate his decision to delay providing support for his read on That2User after providing reads and reasoning on me, SirAnon and a gut read on Oro, and that has me sussing him a bit.
I also don't scumread Pie over his support for this popcorning scheme, even though he didn't provide much in the way of reasoning for supporting it. Seems like a bit of a gambit on his end, and my experience has been that he tends to shore up his reasoning more when he is scum. If anything, this more shoot-from-the-hip method is making me townread him a bit more.
The fact that SirAnon got a response to his question about the Hated townie MYLO/LYLO thing leaves me in basically the same place regarding GP. The fact that he did make this carve out is specific enough that we know he likely crafted a Hated role for this game, but whether it's an actual role in play or a fake role claim he gave to scum is an open question.
As for theme analysis, I'll wait to see what MC posts.
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Well, given that Oro just posted and has claimed AFC South, I'd say there's not enough reason to pursue a lynch on him at this point. There really wasn't enough to begin with for just not posting yet, but I understand why people were frustrated.
For the most part, I'm not seeing anything that makes me sus anyone particularly much. Have a few light town reads. Pie is engaging in some light scum hunting and giving some reasonable reads, which is normal for him at this point. SirAnonymous's initial probing came off as slight townie to me, though it's not abnormal for anyone. Earth comes off as townie to me. I don't think he would have jumped the gun on the popcorn as scum because I believe his partner would have reigned him in. Ignoring an ongoing strategy just fits Earth's usual playstyle. I've always had a hard time reading Speed, though so far, his behavior is in line with what I'd expect from him as town. Similar for MC, who I think is providing some decent insights that seem largely townie and is the person I most agree with up to this point.
Most of the rest I'm pretty neutral on. Haven't seen enough out of Danielle to tell much, same with Barney, who has just been tracking claims. Same for Oro, though that's his MO in basically every game up to this point. That2 is chiming in, but while I'm not seeing anything out of the ordinary there, nothing stands as particularly townie to me. Badger's decision to jump the gun reads largely as his disinterest in the theme and an unwillingness to cooperate, which could be either anti-town or scum.
At the moment, my only light scum read is GP. It wasn't so much the choice to exclude his role, since he has done that before as town, but, as MC put it, his shift towards being a "helpful townie" that has me on guard. Both of the quotes he used rubbed me the wrong way as well. GP is not behaving at all like himself in this early stage of the game. He's already been evasive about his justification and a little defensive of his claim.
I'll abstain from VTLing him, though, because we have a while left to consider our options and I at least want all the conferences and divisions on the table.
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@Greyparrot
Who likes the Falcons?
I’m unclear. Is that your justification or are you speaking to your own feelings on the matter?
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