Total posts: 3,260
Posted in:
Suffice it to say that, if we are picking someone to lynch this DP, I think we have to pick among those who cannot be confirmed by their night actions, which includes everyone who has not claimed (myself included). I say that while BK remains highest among my scumreads. I also say it knowing that most of those who fall into that category are people I’m behaviorally reading as town, so that does narrow the options for a lynch substantially.
Here’s the list of people I’m unwilling to lynch in this DP in order of most to least:
JoeBob: Innocent Child. Nuff said.
GP: has a claimed role that will rapidly confirm itself during the NP. If he doesn’t, that means he’s the obvious lynch next DP or he’s dead during the NP.
Savant: some may disagree about my putting him this far up, but despite the lack of a hard claim, he has said he’s clearly confirmable, so whatever his role is, it will either become clear next DP or he’ll be on the chopping block.
Pie: claimed the main character of the series and a role that can be watched. It’s not a slam dunk, but it is a testable role on some level. I’ve got a question into Luna about it, so this might change.
BK: claimed doctor and major character, though his behavior has been all over the place. The role is nonetheless somewhat confirmable.
That leaves 4 choices, including me. I’ll leave myself out for obvious reasons and list from least to most sus.
Vader: he’s been a black box when it comes to his claims, but his behavior comes off as very townie throughout. He’s my “if necessary” choice, but I’d prefer both of the options below to him.
Austin: the Bleeder claim makes basic sense, but could easily be a relatively safe fake claim. I know some people are sussing him based on how much he pushed back on claiming, but Barney and BK did the same and not all of them can be scum. His choices for lynches don’t make much sense to me, but I also don’t think scum would keep pushing on those lynches. Maybe this is just WIFOM thinking, but if scum wants a mislynch this DP, they’re going to pick easier targets that haven’t already been written off. Couple that with his decision to keep pushing the Pie wagon even directly after he claimed Mark Grayson and it just doesn’t scream “scum” to me. It also doesn’t help that, with BK as my scumread, I’m looking for a plausible pairing with him and I just don’t see it with Austin. They’ve been too antagonistic and it doesn’t come off as bussing. Same with Pie. I’d be willing to consider this choice, but my gut tells me it’s the wrong way to go.
Barney: I have his character down to a few plausible options based on his softclaim, but I end up feeling pretty null on him behaviorally. The nature of his softclaim gives him more room to shift than I’d like, and much as I agree that his frustration over the wagon felt natural, I could see him pushing back like that as scum.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
I find it very difficult to believe that GP isn’t town based on his claim, which is easily verifiable. If it isn’t verified during the NP, then he’s the obvious lynch, so I don’t know why he’d do that.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
@Savant
To be fair, so did I for a while. I also did question whether that was just part of what the AI generated rather than something that was in the actual description, though I guess he did verify that.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Yeah, I didn't really think that one through, although I think that's how Bleeder is usually flavored anyway, based on my research. I had like 5 minutes before a class and I wanted to out my role so I didn't get quickhammered.
Alright, though it’s odd that you called it flavored in the first place in that case. I get that you had a different kind of Bleeder in a previous game, but I’m surprised you didn’t research it upon receiving your role.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
I don't care. After you killed me as TP it's clear you just don't like me.
…I’m sincerely so lost reading this.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
im probably just gonna send out all 5 to those who I dont think is scum
Good to know, though that wouldn’t prove you’re innocent without some kind of validation. Some of those dying might be enough to do the bare minimum since you could confirm visits, though you should mention who was visited as early in the next DP as possible.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
The Immortal = President LincolnIt’s one of my favorite little details.
Yep, that was a fun revelation. Started squinting at my screen to see how he’d look in a stovepipe hat.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
Variably. He was unusually taciturn and frustrated for a lot of the last game, but that was after being sussed. He sometimes takes things seriously, though usually that takes a DP or two. I can’t say I’ve seen him behave this specific way before, particularly buddying the most townie players, so it’s setting off alarm bells.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
I strongly sus BK even with the doctor claim. But a NP or two will prove which side he’s really on.
I’m of the same mind. Even if I buy that it’s a viable claim, his behavior keeps me second guessing myself.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
As for how Atom Eve’s role connects to her character… pretty poorly, but given what Luna said in the OP and the apparent need for a protective role, I’d say there’s a decent chance it’s real.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
You mentioned this just as I was ready to post.
Part of the problem with all these roles (Doctor, Commuter, GP’s role) is that verifying them gets tricky. We need a Watcher (preferably) or a Tracker to monitor who they visit. We would not do much be determining what they did as where they go. In that sense, while these are “confirmable,” none can be fully confirmed. The Watcher is ideal because we know they can target whoever made the claim instead of guessing what they’re going to do, and in GP’s case, if he targets two people, the Watcher would get both results. That’s a good deal harder to fake.
All of this assumes we have informational roles that could be used for this purpose.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
I’m really disliking how bloodthirsty BK is.
Yeah… behaviorally, he’s still the most sus to me, though the Doc claim makes it hard to justify picking him this DP. That being said, the fact that scum have a fake role claim (one that Luna says he only hinted at) makes me suspect that scum received a pretty strong claim. I’m not ruling out Doc for that.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
I could have baited a quickhammer in a MYLO situation and then voted out scum with town the next day. Or I could extend reaching MYLO by one day if scum killed me during the night.
I guess that’s true, though notably you’d have to survive out to that point to achieve either of those goals and your decision not to claim might have just hampered that. Honestly, you could’ve gotten away with the character claim alone or just claimed normal Bleeder to invite the quick hammer. Its oddly anti-town to specify the flavor.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
@JoeBob
I’ve caught up on the DP, but I don’t have a lot of time to contribute this evening (I’ve got a Seder tonight with my family), so I’m going to just try to give basic thoughts based on recent events.
Wanted to see if anyone would claim my character so I could CC but no. I am Oliver Greyson.
yeah… you didn’t need to do that. It was pretty obvious given that he fits the profile perfectly, but it was unnecessary.
I am The Immortal.
Alright.
I'm actually so annoyed rn... my role is fudged now.
I’m honestly unclear about this. The statement implies that the role is both obvious and somehow made impotent by the knowledge of the character.
I am the Bleeder, but it's weirdly flavored
…what? How is this fudged? It’s specific and our knowledge of it has no bearing on the outcome.
Created:
Posted in:
I’ll be driving over the next couple of hours, so I’ll think about it for now.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
At this point, I have even less reason to pursue more claims. We’re at 3 effectively full claims (JoeBob, Pie and GP), 1 character claim (you) and 1 soft claim (Barney). If you’re calling for more, you might as well just call for a mass claim at this point because we’re crossing the halfway point and that’s already too much information.
So, no, I’m not putting a vote on either Barney or Austin.
Created:
Posted in:
Alright, Atom Eve is another major character, so another example of a ballsy claim if it is fake. I’m honestly not sure what the associated role would be, so I don’t get how BK thought it was obvious. Will need to think on this one.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
So then you’re fine softclaiming after saying that you would claim your character. Alright. Guess you changed your mind? You fine with Barney’s softclaim now?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
Alright, I am the powerpuff girls.
…is this an attempt to do what Barney did with claiming Harry Potter last game? Because if so, I’m only partially getting it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
if I get 2 votes on me, I will character claim
You have two votes on you.
Created:
Posted in:
At this point, I'm done engaging in this back-and-forth with BK. It's pretty clear he doesn't care about the behavioral aspects of play in this game and is only interested in getting more claims, which is more likely to help scum at this stage than it is to help town. Unless we have a really good reason for doing it with a specific person, more claims should be off the table, as should suggesting a lynch on someone who could confirm themselves.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
So no lynch, no more new claims, just some responses?I guess thats fine, so you do that.Although I would prefer if we get claims, as I am not a big fan of a no lynch and no claims.
Again, very selective reading of my responses. As for the pursuit of claims, I'd sincerely like to better understand that. What do you think we could gain from more claims? And for that matter, are you not the slightest bit concerned that scum could also gain information from those claims?
I can post reads, I guess, but I find it largely pointless at this stage when almost everyone is acting scummy.
Yep, that would be pointless. It's as pointless to claim that everyone's null or that everyone's acting townie, so if that's what you're going to do in posting your reads, don't bother. It would be a waste of everyone's time to read it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
Considering that you literally wrote off 4 other people as non-targets in your set of 3 options and analysis, I'd say you're being rather dismissive of "seeking more information" from other people. Also, considering that the only information you appear to be considering is role and character claims, I'd say the breadth of information you're seeking is too limited.
As for what I'm seeking, it's largely behavioral. That can come from placing votes on people and seeing how they respond. That can come from seeing how they respond to claims and other activity. That's why I've read over the last 11 pages and why not everyone in my PoE pool is equally sus or neutral. I'm still not clear how you perceive them.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
Its not a belief. There is literally no 4th option.
In your extremely limited examination where you only consider 4 people in this game, maybe. In the reality where this game features 9 people, no. You can set up a false dilemma all you want, but that doesn't make it accurate.
So your opinion is to do a no lynch.
Gotta love that selective reading. I said I don't have a person I'd pursue for a lynch based on the available information. That doesn't mean I'd prefer a no lynch this DP.
I doubt a lynch against me is a possibility, and I would also discourage it, but if I get 2 votes on me, I will character claim, but I think my character makes my role a bit too obvious, so it would essentially be a role claim.
I guess you're entitled to your opinion. If I was going to pursue more information at this stage, though, you'd be my first choice, so good to know what it'll take to get it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
So Pie could be role confirmed... but since he's less likely to be role confirmed than GP... we should lynch him? Seriously, WTF is with that logic? Also, I asked for reads on everyone, not just on GP, JoeBob and Pie. You're cherry-picking a subset of the players, arguing that Pie is the most sus of that subset (I haven't seen you engage once with his character claim, but fine), and arguing that we should only lynch within that subset.
For that matter, the only basis you're apparently using to establish your decision is stated claims. You aren't engaging at all with behavior. If you honestly believe that the only choices here are to gain more information, lynch Pie or no lynch, then I can only assume that you believe you've gained absolutely no information on any other players in this game. I can't help it if that's your take-away from the last 11 pages of posting, but it's not mine and I doubt anyone else is going to agree with you on this, either.
Are you suggesting that we do a no lynch?If not, then who do we get information from next?
Right now, I prefer a no lynch to lynching Pie. I also prefer that we not seek more information than we already have, given a softclaimed character from Barney and two full claims on the table from Pie and GP, respectively, as well as the knowledge that JoeBob is town. I don't think more information at this point about roles and characters helps town meaningfully, and only serves to help scum.
So if I'm considering a lynch at this stage, since both Pie and GP have roles that are at least potentially confirmable and JoeBob is confirmed town, I break it down to PoE. It's between you, Barney, Vader, Austin and Savant. I behaviorally read both Vader and Savant as slight town, so it's you, Austin and Savant, and at the moment, your behavior seems the most sus to me. I wouldn't pursue a lynch against you at this point, but you're making me second-guess that decision with each response.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
Right now, the only lynch is Pie, or we do a no lynch.So unless you want to lynch Pie or do a no lynch, we need to find new primary target.
...Why? Please explain this to me. So far, I haven't seen you give one reason why you sus Pie, and this argument is doubly strange given this post, which is your only response to his role claim, where you said that it's possible to confirm his role. Why would you seek a lynch on Pie when you said that?
For that matter, why is your vote still on Barney if that's how you really feel? He's not a potential lynch to you, so I guess you're just seeking information, but for what purpose?
I also don't understand the perspective that Pie is the only feasible lynch this DP. Please, elaborate on that. What are your reads?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
What am I being pushed on? You cannot pressure me for information, without ever stating what you’d like to know (which no one has).If it’s what I was doing last night, just ask your mothers…
I thought it was relatively obvious that I was seeking at least a character claim, but I didn't state it outright, so that's my bad. I never said you had to post within the night last night, but hey, I guess if you want to make a crass joke, that's up to you.
My character doesn’t follow his super power for his role. The role fits the character, but it’s based on his actions rather than technical power.Like let’s say I was Rex, the power wouldn’t just be mad bomber or vigilante to fit the power of making stuff explode as an attack, it’d instead be something like Lover for his habit of cheating on Atom-Eve with Dupli-Kate (whom I believe someone claimed, so to be clear, no connection).
As far as claims go, I'm fine with this as a soft claim. It narrows the options significantly, though I'm not going to speculate here about who you could be based on this.
As for the people that are still seeking information, I'd like to know why. BK says he still needs a claim for no stated reason. Pie hasn't hopped on yet, but I'd like to know if he has a reason to persist. JoeBob hopped on the lynch because he thought Barney was lurking, though again, I'd like to see his thoughts on the softclaim.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
Is there any reason not to reveal my role right now? The only special thing about it is that it can be easily confirmed.
Generally not the best idea to be revealing information to us about your role right now, especially considering we already have two full claims on the table and another we're in pursuit of currently. If you can confirm your role, then you shouldn't need to tell us what it is first.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
Whiteflame unvoted to prevent quickhammer
What he said.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Vader
Speaking of which, I noticed a pattern. It looks like role justifications for the most part are based on the powers the hero has. With GP’s claim, my role and character, and Pies role and character, I think we can assume that the role justification are based on the abilities. Is this true for everyone?Without char claiming or doing that, can you see if this is true with your characters?
In a manner of speaking, yes.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
A fifth vote on him would result in a lynch, hence my unvote to avoid a quick lynch. You can state your intentions or replace it, though I'd suggest leaving things as they stand on the vote count.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Barney
I remain fine with pushing Barney, though to avoid any possibility of someone hammering, Unvote. Consider my vote on you regardless.
Created:
Posted in:
I’ll post reads after I’ve seen some more responses to Pie’s claim. For now, suffice it to say that I have big problems with the fact that Pie was pushed that hard that rapidly for a claim based on pretty weak analysis of his behavior up to that point, and I get the subsequent push to out his role even less based on his character claim.
Austin’s decision to jump on said character claim as sus actually comes off as a little townie to me. I don’t think he’d push that hard, especially saying he’d “bet [his] account on it.” Genuinely find it mystifying that he’d keep pursuing at that point, but it doesn’t scream scum to me. Other behaviors of his this DP do, I’m trying to square those.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
Both GreyParrot and JoeBob recommended getting a role from Pie over Barney, and they are confirmed town. Pie is probably innocent, but clearly not everyone on the wagon was scum.
I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion with GP. Just because he claimed a complex role that could be confirmed later doesn’t mean he definitely is confirmed town. I don't blame anyone for seeing him as likely town, but he’s in no way confirmed. Also, JoeBob was recommending Barney for quite a while, but no one went along with him then. Don’t really like that that’s getting ignored.
Created:
Posted in:
I don’t get this logic sussing Pie’s character claim. I grant that there’s some non-zero chance that he figured out that Mark wasn’t in this game based on some tidbit received from Luna. If we’re going to mod psych this, then yes, there’s a chance. The problem is two-fold. One, mod psych only works well when a mod is making consistent decisions across games and I’m seeing a lot of evidence to the contrary. Two, it says in the OP that:
Mafia were not directly given fake claims! However I did give them a very strong hint to a role claim, and it is an open set up, so they will have a list of characters to choose from that may exist in this game.
So we have to assume that Pie as scum saw a single role claim hint and somehow determined that Mark Grayson wasn’t in the game. That would take some real balls and, much as I wouldn’t put it entirely past him, it seems like an absurd position to argue that he must be lying when we know scum are limited to that information.
Created:
Posted in:
I can’t respond to all this right now, but suffice it to say that I still find this rapid-fire train on Pie hard to stomach. I don’t mind getting a claim, but it seems as though at least GP, BK and Savant are all on it for reasons that have nothing to do with any behavioral reads. He certainly wouldn’t be my first pick just for seeking a claim from Barney or for pushing others to do the same.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
Joe didnt vote. Gp did.And I already told Joe that he gets to make adjustments, since he outranks Gp.
So you’ll follow who they choose, but only if they’re decisive enough to post a vote, despite the fact that you have acknowledged that you value Joe’s view over GP’s? Seriously, pick a lane.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Best.Korea
I would vote anyone Joe or Gp tell me to.Also, I think pie needs to claim.
So considering that JoeBob has expressed an interest in pursuing Barney over Pie, you haven't changed your mind. Why?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Vader
Luna's theme split is protag vs antag in OP. Though it may come down to his interpretation of antag. Omni Man could be considered an antag or a protag imo from what I see. We just know what Luna said in general. My generation was also just to see also if there was anyone lying about a character
Ah, must've missed that for some reason. Yeah, if Omni-Man is in the game, it's going to be a little more difficult to determine where he resides on that scale, but the other antagonists you listed are pretty cut and dried.
Created:
Posted in:
No one else vote Pie at this point. There are 4 votes on him, he's at L-1. I don't get this push for him to claim, but if you lynch him, you will be the first person we sus next DP.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Greyparrot
@Best.Korea
@AustinL0926
As a general rule, I mistrust wagons that form this fast, even if the aim is just to get a claim. All three of your votes came within five minutes of each other.
I understand that BK was already sussing him, but I haven't seen a reason for it yet.
I don't understand Austin's basis for sussing him. I'm hoping for more details as he's the one who seems to have a basis for his vote.
GP said he sussed both Pie and Barney here, now he's putting his attention on Pie with a wagon on Barney.
Now Savant's on this as well for no obvious reason.
Can anyone clarify why this is a thing?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
I’m on the move so I’m missing some things. Trying to push for a claim from a largely inactive participant seems pretty normal for Pie, so that’s not enough by itself. What has he avoided addressing?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Alright, so then explain to me why Pie and not Barney. I don’t see much of a difference right now beyond activity.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
Explain this to me. Why are you sussing Pie?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@AustinL0926
I don't think he mentioned anything about not being sure about the themesplit.
I think Pie’s point is that Barney also didn’t read the OP in full before his first post. This is what he said:
I missed something. How do we know JoeBob is innocent?
So if your standard is that it’s behaviorally townie to have missed aspects of the OP, he should be included.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
Correct, though I doubt that Luna's theme split is going to be that cut and dried.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
If anyone has any one of these roles, you need to SOP claim asap
To clarify, those are characters, but mine is not one of them.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
You should vote Barney for at least a role claim.
I'm fine with getting another role claim. VTL Barney
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Savant
All I can say is that I've been busier recently than I usually have with my in-laws in town and work, and that I'm more cautious about my reads coming out of the last game. In that sense, yes, I have been more passive. I have also been responding to the relevant posts and engaging where and when I can, though you'll note from previous games that I've rarely been too active in scum hunting for DP1. Last game was a bit of an outlier.
Created: