THBT: DONALD TRUMP will beat JOE BIDEN in the 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
All stages have been completed. The voting points distribution and the result are presented below.
With 5 votes and 34 points ahead, the winner is ...
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- Open voting
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- Four points
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PRO = nmvarco = DONALD TRUMP will beat JOE BIDEN in the 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
CON = charlielikespolitics = JOE BIDEN will beat DONALD TRUMP in the 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
R1: PRO presents opening arguments, CON presents opening arguments
R2: PRO presents counters and any new arguments, CON presents counters and any new arguments
R3: PRO presents counters, CON presents counters
- Both PRO and CON must prove that their chosen candidate will win.
- There is no status quo among presidential elections; they can fluctuate.
- Neither PRO nor CON will be claiming anything extraordinary, as there are two possibilities for the outcomes of this election.
- RESOLVED: BURDEN of PROOF is SHARED.
- Donald Trump is more likely to win the election than Joe Biden.
- RealClearPolitics places JB 5.9 points above DT as of May 31, 2020 .
- On May 31, 2016, Hillary Clinton was polling 5.2 points above DT .
- On November 7, 2016, one day before the election, Clinton was still polling 5.3 points above DT .
- Yet, Trump was elected president the next day.
- HuffPost said that “Our model of the polls suggests Clinton was very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Clinton led Trump.)”
- This statistics are eerily similar to the ones being projected.
- Why did this happen? Many reasons.
- “...people who turned out to vote looked very different from voters in other recent elections. Most polls rely on data gathered from people identified by a variety of factors as "likely voters." If the actual voters this year look substantially different than in previous years – not entirely unreasonable given how unusual this election has been – then these models will do poorly. If there are high levels of undercoverage where not all people are accurately represented in survey samples, or if there are particular kinds of systematic nonresponse to poll questions, this effectively misrepresents the electorate as well…” 
- This trend is likely to continue with the rise of social media. The 2016 election was the first presidential election that was influenced by social media, and while many people vote, many more people see Twitter.
- Trump has implanted himself into every American’s head through repeated controversy. During his 2016 campaign, he made wacky claims that soon cemented themselves into people’s brains. Trump creates so much controversy that by the time the media is outraged about one thing, he does another. Unlike Howard Dean , who’s “I Have a Scream” speech decimated his political campaign, Trump has generated so much controversy that he is practically immune to it. A quite recent example is his tweets during the George Floyd riots.
- On May 29, with the media already quite normalized with the usually malicious intent of his tweets, Trump tweeted that “when the looting starts, the shooting starts,” while referring to the George Floyd riots taking place in Minneapolis.
- On May 2, after a photo op in front of St. John’s Church across from the white house, Trump tweeted that there had been “no problems” with protestors the night before, even though protestors had reportedly been tear gassed to make way for Trump’s photo op. If any other president had been reported as doing this, there would have been another protest.
- THE POLLS ARE WRONG.
- EVERYONE KNOWS WHO DT IS.
- DT IS IMMUNE TO CONTROVERSY.
- THEREFORE, DT WILL BEAT JB IN THE 2020 PE.
- Joe Biden is immersed in controversy.
- His "you ain't black" comment ought to have stirred up controversy among black voters.
- Die-hard #MeTooers and feminists as well as anti-establishments don't like him over the Tara Reade case.