Invincible Mafia Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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#211
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@Savant
Oh ok I see. 

Well I guess we will wait to see Austin's defense. I saw what he said the reasons for Pie and I just find it really weird that he switched so quick. 

#212
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@Savant
But that's the point, Lunatic as a mod has a history of not giving MCs to town. He's said in the past that he doesn't like excessive focus on thematic analysis, mod psyche, and other non-behavioral crap.

I think the info that he gave a fakeclaim hint to mafia is really important. Giving a hint only makes sense if it's a hint to a character that the mafia team would otherwise expect would be already taken. Mark Grayson is the definition of this.
#213
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@Vader
Well I guess we will wait to see Austin's defense
#214
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My initial vote on Pie was 1/3 pushing for a claim, 1/3 based on behavior, and 1/3 a reaction test. If anything, Pie's reaction has only solidified my reads.
#215
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@Vader
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
Haven't seen how Lunatic mods games in the past, but maybe others can confirm this. If all of what Austin said is true, then Grayson is as likely to be a fake claim as a real one, if not more so. But that's still not a sufficient reason to lynch, imo.

For now, I'd go back to trying to get a response from Barney, if he logs on any time soon.
#216
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@Savant
VTL Pie

Pie got away with avoiding a role claim. Let's get him to 4/5 again and let Joebob force him to roleclaim.
#217
Best.Korea
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@Savant
It's more reliable with the main character of the show, since someone would probably be assigned Mark Grayson
I dont know how many main characters are there in the show, but...

Its 7 vs 2.

I seriously doubt lunatic made such an obvious distribution in an open setup.

It would be impossible for scum to win if town took all most important main characters, because then scum wouldnt even have proper character claim, and with only 2 scum players, that would not be balanced at all, and all town would have to do is make everyone character claim and the scums would be obvious.

#218
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@Savant
He's hoping that his char claim will lead people to quietly drop the wagon.
#219
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@AustinL0926
I'm going to be honest and say I really have nothing other than a very strong gut feeling that Pie intuited the fakeclaim, e.g.:

"Mafia were not directly given fake claims! However I did give them a very strong hint to a role claim, and it is an open set up, so they will have a list of characters to choose from that may exist in this game."
Lunatic has a history of not giving protags and strong characters and town. E.g. in Stormlight Archives he gave arguably the two main characters, Kaladin and Jasnah, as fakeclaims. In MMA mafia he gave boxing and JJ for mafia, for Ozark he gave the entire flipping Byrde family.
This is interest, but again I have games pointed out where he has MC's in the game that were not fake claims. In Dark Crystal the MC was there, and in Ozarks, the main characters were quite literally scum as well, so he does give out MC's in his games. It's too 50/50 and that too point out. Also when you look it says role claim. Not thematic claim but a role claim. This means they likely know a mechanic about the game, not whether or not a character is in the game, so I have a tough time following your logic

#220
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@JoeBob
Someone tell me, what was the point of making pie claim? We gained literally nothing valuable from that, other than his character which doesn’t help us at the moment.
Cause there’s scum on the wagon and they want to know my character for POE purposes and secure their fake claim from the list or gain information to eliminate me as I’m one of the strongest town players.
#221
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@Savant
It's a 50/50 on whether Lunatic doesn't. It isn't a consistent enough of a pattern that I can read into it deeper, but it is something to take note. Nonetheless I think we should stop worrying about Pie at the moment. Focus attention onto Barney and make a decision based on that

I do want to see Pie roleclaim at some point. It just sucks that Grayson was outed because if he is telling the truth (which I'm inclined to do), then we likely lose a key role 
#222
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@Best.Korea
And the role? 

I am not familiar with the characters, so I cant really figure out role from mere character.
You have to be batshit crazy if you think scum would claim the main character of the entire show
#223
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@Best.Korea
Besides, you did say you want claim from Pie because Barney isnt online.
No. I said it would be ideal for him to over Barney.
#224
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@ILikePie5
What is your role?
#225
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@JoeBob
What was your reasoning for Pie over Barney?
#226
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@ILikePie5
Just claim the role already.

We already know scum was given some type of character claim hint, so I am not really happy with mere character claim here, since it tells us nothing.
#227
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@AustinL0926
Lunatic has a history of not giving protags and strong characters and town. E.g. in Stormlight Archives he gave arguably the two main characters, Kaladin and Jasnah, as fakeclaims. In MMA mafia he gave boxing and JJ for mafia, for Ozark he gave the entire flipping Byrde family.
Lots of flaws here:

1) You have to assume that he gave Mark Grayson as a fake claim. In the OP, Lunatic clearly says he gave a hint towards a role claim, not a character claim.

2) If he did give a character claim, what was the purpose of making it an open set up with all the characters.

3) Shallan Davar in Stormlight was a main character and was town. In that game he also gave 3 fake claims and it wasn’t an open setup.

4) In Ozark mafia, scum were literally the main characters. Town had quite a few main characters as well like Jacob Snell, Helen Parker, etc

5) In MMA mafia, he didn’t give any fake claims at all. And again it wasn’t an open set up. I was Muay Thai that game. There was Karate and Judo, both popular forms. Not to mention wrestling.

I don't believe that Lunatic would give the main character of Invincible to a town player because it would essentially clear them since people blindly believe thematic analysis.
Let’s say for instance that this is true. You would have to assume that I as scum would claim Mark Grayson, the main protagonist of the game. That’s just insane especially when it’s clear scum were not given a fake claim (which we know is something he has done before in MMA mafia)
#228
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@AustinL0926
But that's the point, Lunatic as a mod has a history of not giving MCs to town.
That’s just false. I’ve pointed out “main characters” on town side. I just looked at the games you pointed out but I’ll go back further.

He's said in the past that he doesn't like excessive focus on thematic analysis, mod psyche, and other non-behavioral crap.
That’s fine, but he literally said protagonists vs antagonists here. You’re assuming Mark Grayson, the main protagonist, does not exist.

I think the info that he gave a fakeclaim hint to mafia is really important. Giving a hint only makes sense if it's a hint to a character that the mafia team would otherwise expect would be already taken. Mark Grayson is the definition of this.
He gave a hint to a ROLE not a CHARACTER. If he gave a hint towards a fake character, what’s the point of making it an open set up
#229
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Gonna give my reads at the moment.

Right now town confirmed and only town confirmed
JoeBob

Lean Town
Pie 
Grey

Null
Whiteflame (null ATM)
Savant (trending town but wagon made me switch to null)

FoS
Austin
BK
Barney

Austin, Barney, BK are in my FOS pile for each reason

Austin is in my FoS pile because his drastic switch from Barney to Pie in less than 5 posts is somewhat suspicious to me. His spearheading of that to deviate attention away from Barney seems constructed to try and find a claim that would work. I think it's a bit tunnel vision for the most part and I think it might be a bit scummy. 

BK is in my FoS because he seems to just be buddying off the confirmed townie. This is the optimal play for scum to latch onto because "oh it's a town player oh I will take their insight to not draw suspicion. He didn't give a clear analysis at all on his reason and from what I seen, deviate from how I see him play mafia

Barney is slight in my FoS but that could be me paranoid about the last game where he didn't read and slipped and town completely missed it. I think maybe he thought he could do the same. Plus a lot of his posts reek of how he was last time as mafia. Unconfrontational and keeping off to the side while posting charts. 

This is just a base analysis though 
#230
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@Savant
Haven't seen how Lunatic mods games in the past, but maybe others can confirm this. If all of what Austin said is true, then Grayson is as likely to be a fake claim as a real one, if not more so. But that's still not a sufficient reason to lynch, imo.
It’s not true. Austin is using flawed logic. And even if what he says is true, Lunstic clearly isn’t a fan of mod psyche either
#231
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@Best.Korea
We already know scum was given some type of character claim hint, so I am not really happy with mere character claim here, since it tells us nothing.
Wrong. It was a role claim hint according to the DP? Unless you know there was a character hint as well that wasn't specified in the DP? Which would make you scum
#232
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@Vader
Cuz Barney isn’t active. As much as you want, you’re not getting anything out of him if he’s not online. Pie is however. And they both have the same people after them. Ones active and can claim, one can’t.

#233
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Also Pie being defensive and not claiming a role yet is pretty town from him especially if he has a power role. He literally was in a game where he was clearly the only person left to possibly be a cop and kept denying it to the very end 
#234
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@Best.Korea
@JoeBob
What is your role?
Sad that you’re being influenced this much by scum.

Alas, I will claim.

I am a X-Shot/Odd Night/Even Night Commuter. I won’t reveal which of the three (either X shot, odd night, or even night) I am so mafia doesn’t get an advantage. 
#235
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I was just about to post that Pie should claim his role instead of drawing this out but he just claimed
#236
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@Vader
I was just about to post that Pie should claim his role instead of drawing this out but he just claimed
I’m smart enough to know that scum are driving this wagon lol
#237
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Pie’s role as a Commuter makes sense for Mark Grayson aka Invincible. Commuter can not be targeted in the Np by any action, hence they are “Invincible,” I buy the claim as it matches decently well to the character, enough to where I can believe it unless any CC comes out
#238
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
scum are driving this wagon
Both GreyParrot and JoeBob recommended getting a role from Pie over Barney, and they are confirmed town. Pie is probably innocent, but clearly not everyone on the wagon was scum.
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#239
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

iLikePie5- 3/5- greyparrot, Best.korea, Austin
Barney- 2/5- iLikePie5, Whiteflame

#240
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I don’t get this logic sussing Pie’s character claim. I grant that there’s some non-zero chance that he figured out that Mark wasn’t in this game based on some tidbit received from Luna. If we’re going to mod psych this, then yes, there’s a chance. The problem is two-fold. One, mod psych only works well when a mod is making consistent decisions across games and I’m seeing a lot of evidence to the contrary. Two, it says in the OP that:
Mafia were not directly given fake claims! However I did give them a very strong hint to a role claim, and it is an open set up, so they will have a list of characters to choose from that may exist in this game.
So we have to assume that Pie as scum saw a single role claim hint and somehow determined that Mark Grayson wasn’t in the game. That would take some real balls and, much as I wouldn’t put it entirely past him, it seems like an absurd position to argue that he must be lying when we know scum are limited to that information.