The Russian Mafia DP1

What are your reads

I would like reads from you as well

Been working on it.

If I'm right, we're at about 29 hours remaining, so it's about time we start making some decisions and about time for me to give my reads.

Savant - Town lean. This largely comes from his decision to soft his character in such a way that it could easily be guessed and his response to it being guessed, which all came off as genuine. Nothing since from him has really shifted that perspective one way or another. There's always the possibility that scum were given fake claims or that he was just trying to soft his actual character as scum, but it's more likely that this was just a flub on an attempt to soft his character as town.

Danilaykus - Absent. Null.

Banana - Town lean. Another instance of an early post that  I just don't believe is being faked since she mentioned her character being "commonly aligned with the mafia". Not out of the question that a scum partner would push for her to soft this, but significantly less likely IMO. Not a big fan of how dismissive she is of That2's claim, mainly because she's not engaging with a lot of the reasoning for why that claim stands out as much as it does, but that comes off more as being defensive of someone who has been a target of a lot of criticism so far.

That2 - Slight scum. There's just a lot I really don't like about That2's behavior so far and I haven't seen any good reason for it yet, either from her or from her defenders. I've said it a few times, but I'll lay out the issues clearly. In response to a request for That2 to provide a timeframe for her character, she said her character was assassinated. Under pressure, she said it was during the October Revolution. That's all fine. After pointing out that the myth of Anastasia's survival is a pretty key part of her story, That2 admitted that that was knowledge she had of the character before posting the details, saying it was "implicit knowledge," suggesting that she withheld that information when pressed. She then clarified that Casey described it as an execution, not an assassination, saying that the description as an assassination was an attempt "to be vague." I don't care about the use of terms here, but I do care that That2 is retroactively justifying the choice in a way that does not make sense. There's a chance that this is just a hole of That2's making where she legitimately did all this as town, and given that the character suits the role claim, at minimum, I'm having some doubts. However, I will note that in the time it's taken to write this, I've seen That2 come on and not post despite requests for clarification of that role and a great deal of focus on her since her claim. Generally don't like the evasiveness.

Earth - Null. Not a lot to go off of so far, largely just taking positions on various issues that have come up and a stance on That2's claim. That last bit rubs me the wrong way because he wrote That2's response off as a lack of familiarity with Russian history when that has not been a basis for anyone's stance on her claim thusfar, but I can't say whether that position was due to a lack of reading into the DP or just a weak attempt to defend That2.

Vader - Slight town lean. I like the push for softclaims without providing too much information, and the role confirmation that he's promised at least gives me some more reason to believe he's town since he's saying it's mostly associated with a town role. It's not a given, hence this is slight. I also think the set of reads he's posted read well, particularly as so many people have turned up saying that they think That2 is town. 

WyIted - Slight town lean. The back-and-forth with That2 seems genuine as does the uncertainty of his read on That2, but if anything is putting him in the town camp, it's that early reveal of Savant's character based on his hints. Maybe it's a faulty assumption, but I believe WyIted would have kept that information to himself if he was scum.

Lunatic - Slight town lean. Another case of the interaction with That2 giving me town vibes. His case was perhaps a little too specific to the wording at times, but the back-and-forth and probing based on That2's softclaim came off as a genuine attempt to get to the bottom of it. Pointing out the Beloved Princess doesn't match our usual use of the role and then posting that it still gets listed this way on mafiascum came off as a pretty genuine attempt to work through his thoughts. He's my weakest townread, but I still at least have something to go off of for him.

Cerulean - Null. I like how Cerulean is probing for information from That2 and in response to Pie, but there's not a lot to go off of so far that leads me to lean either way on him.

Pie - Null. The largely distant responses to That2's claim where he agrees with Luna about Casey being unlikely to mess up the PM and calling out the unusual nature (at least for this site) of the Beloved Princess only skipping the DP regardless of how it dies is all reasonable, though I'll note that the latter came up about an hour after Luna posted about the Beloved Princess working that way on other sites. It doesn't swing me either way, though, since that's a pretty normal way to think about it, so null it is.

Points about that2's behavior are all fair. I'll say again that their role makes a lot of sense given what I now about mine, but it's possible scum have some information or fake claim mechanic that allowed them to claim this role (although I will say it seems unlikely, and I think it's too subtle for Casey to account for). It's a significant enough thing that I'm inclined to overlook behavioral weirdness, at least for now. I'm more inclined to go after Earth, if only because I don't have any reasons to town read him.

Yeah, willing to provide that later, though probably best if I wait a while.

VTL Earth for character claim. I know he's against it, but it's either get some information or go for a lynch.

I'm good with that. At the very least, he's been one of the less active players in this game and we need to get more interaction with him.

Giys I am going to be useless this game unlesI make something happen with my role, so the first strong town read I get I am just going to srongly support whatever they are doing. 

I think there is a greater than normal chance the new guy is scum. I think Casey would really randomize roles and I think if you roll scum as a new player it's going to get very intimidating and besides that confusing. 

He is also Ukranians and for all we know is in an active warzone and has more important shit to do than be here, besides the fact that opsec can rise and fall in importance so if they are having some sensitive operations the importance of opsec increases. That's a lot of assumptions though he could be in Brazil and not involved in any fighting whatsoever for all I know. 

That2 I feel like is potentially scum. I don't think the assassin vs executed distinction matters too much but the other things pointed out about how she claimed seems weird, such as offering up too much information at random when everyone else was just talking about their relationship with the Soviet Union. 

I feel there is a good chance pie is scum here but I also feel guilty because a few games back I had that feeling and got him lynched DP1. Or maybe I was scum that game and pushed it I can't remember but I feel like I was town when I lynched him. 

Whiteflame feels town for reasons. Savant as well should get some credit for the early claim.

Vader has probably provided enough

A safe lynch might be that2 and she can sub in for the other guy as well if she is town so we destroy a liability and get a replacement that is normally easy to read.

I’m voluntarily asking to be lynched the day before we hit MYLO. The more days I live the better it is

Or she’s the beloved princess and we have 2 NKs in a row. Idt That2 is a good option, especially considering Savant has a role that makes it likely that That2 is telling the truth.

Did you know? The word 'tsar' ultimately comes from the same root as the German word 'kaiser', which itself comes from the Latin 'Caeser'!

I thought we skipped a night if she was lynched. 

This inactivity is disappointing 

My reads are something like this. This is more or less listed from most town to least, but I could probably move some people around. That2 and Savant are hard town, however. Banana seems genuine about her role. Pie is acting as he usually does, but he hasn't do anything to tip me off yet. I admit my read on Wylted is more of a gutread, but hes lean town to me.

TOWN

Earth

That2 

Savant

Banana

Pie

Wylted 

NULL

WF

Cerulean

Vader

Dani has not posted and won't be placed. I'll think about if I should claim my character.

So you have zero scum reads? 

Mod note: ADreamOfLiberty will be replacing Danilaykus for the remainder of the game. 

I suppose WF, Cerulean and Vader count via PoE.

I might be replacing someone (I don't know who yet).

If someone could give me a rundown on what's happened so far, and what claims are on the table, I would be most appreciative (in fact, if I chance upon a power role, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt with it).

I reached out to ADreamOfLiberty who agreed to serve as a replacement, so we probably won't need you to step in. I appreciate it, though! 

I’ll give some reads later, gonna be busy until tonight when I get to work 

You’re going to need to at least provide some basis for this PoE. Just ranking your reads as you have doesn’t tell me anything about your thought process, and if you’re going to refuse to claim (still think you should), you have to give us something more substantial.

It really is just PoE. That2, Savant and Banana are in my town block, and when you include myself in, thats basically half the player list in my town pile. I understand how it might be frustrating to deal with a player like me, but when you have people like Cerulean who is just vibing in the corner, it seems a little silly to me. I'm not totally against outting my character, I just feel like I need to see a plan and not just give it because you want it.

Welcome, u caught up yet?

Replacing Danilaykus; have not received his role pm yet

^^^^^^^^^^