The Russian Mafia DP3

People get into gaming micro-cultures all the time. You know there was a point in American football when they didn't have a quarterback? They always just tried to dodge or brawl through. I think you've trained each other to think about this game a certain way and you perceive any deviation from your meta as senseless and therefore scummy.

Strategies and behaviors need not be intrinsically flawed to fail, they need only be different from the other town players (scum coordinate and this isn't a problem for them except insofar as they need to know town's idea of town behavior in order to mimic it).

You can't just call every error in judgement YOU make a mistake in someone else's behavior. The real question is whether a full town of people behaving like the other people would have won. You mix a team of players from NFL 2020 and players from 1910 and they are going to throw a tantrum that somebody was just wildly throwing the ball down the field. That doesn't mean the quarterback pass is trash or that direct runs are trash.

In this case, I think a town of players like myself and That2User would have won.

Notice I haven't made the same mistake. I could have been saying "anyone who doesn't go with the math is scum" but I know that just because someone is town doesn't necessarily mean they play the game by the numbers.

That you aren't able to see how a townie lying is harmful is a bit baffling. 

I just gave you a scenario with your own role.

The reason there likely isn't three protective roles, is because it doesn't balance well. Mafia have three different roles that can fvck with their night kill? How is that fair?

How could I possibly know what was fair or not without knowing all the roles and the powers given to the mafia? We don't even know if there are three of them.

What if the game was a bit unfair?

Did Cerulean specifically say his role "messed with night kills"? "protective" is a wider category than "mess with night kill".

She was not caught in a lie, don't rewrite history.

Catching people in lies is how you scum hunt.

Apparently not the only way since That2User was not caught in a lie and your list has proven nobody a liar yet it has IMO the most significant impact on probabilities.

Very unlikely. Remember dreamer only receives results if I am not visited.

You're infinitely more likely to not be visited or killed if you don't tell the mafia you're a dreamer.

The chances I am not visited are astronomically low in general

Well since it happened in round 1 the chance appears to be similar to seeing the the moon at night (an astronomical observation).

Secondly after finding out that multiple scum can be on the results, multiple lists don't help as much as I initially thought they did. 

I think it would help more in that case.

So your strategy in a game where your supposed to find liars is for everyone to just lie?

We're not supposed to find liars, we're trying to find scum.

The general idea is to just lynch them, let them know what they did wrong, and eventually they fix the behavior, or they continue to lose games for their team.

Sounds like you just drive away anyone who thinks about the game differently by being more willing to take losses than they are.

Have you ever tried to go into a different community that plays mafia?

I am Nikita Khrushchev. Because he negotiated for peace and safety, in some cases at the cost of effectiveness in other areas, I am the Jailkeeper. Each Night, I target someone- they are roleblocked, but protected from lethal actions.

You’re assuming that there’s 2 scum, when there are likely 3. (Pie)

Not true. We have 7 alive. If there were 3 scum, this would be LYLO, and that would have been announced:

the chance that both of us (on the list) are town would also be 25% which means you only have 75% room between Banana and I. 75%/2 = 37.5%.

Why are you dividing by 2?

But in that case, if we lynched through both you and Banana, it would be 75%, no?

I am Nikita Khrushchev. Because he negotiated for peace and safety, in some cases at the cost of effectiveness in other areas, I am the Jailkeeper. Each Night, I target someone- they are roleblocked, but protected from lethal actions.

Is my fault, sorry about that.

I targeted Whiteflame Night 1 for two reasons. I thought that if he was Town and User was Scum, he might be a nightkill target, because he was against User but not really "leading the charge," so to speak. The second reason was because if WF was Scum, he might have carried the nightkill, since he was not really on anyone's radar. Either way, a lack of kill would have given me information.

I targeted Vader Night 2 because I townread him and because I suspected his role after he asked if anything happened to WF on Night 1.

Not true. We have 7 alive. If there were 3 scum, this would be LYLO, and that would have been announced:

Just caught up. I really, really don't see why ADOL isn't choosing to say who he targeted. That and because I know I am town, means he is the scum on the results. When I played I got bullied into complying to the way everyone else thinks too, and because I didn't comply I got lynched for it, if for some reason ADOL doesn't get lynched for doing the same thing, I am going to assume it has something to do with gender...

Also I didn't get any results or messages last night to indicate whiteflame visited me, so I don't know what that's about. 

VTL ADOL. You need to out your results. Everyone else has, you aren't a special snowflake.

Taking out Banana and me would be lynching the whole list without confirming Luna is town. Have fun, I've pretty much lost interest.

Also I didn't get any results or messages last night to indicate whiteflame visited me, so I don't know what that's about. 

Idt WF ever said he visited you.

Maybe micro-cultures aren't always a bad thing though as you assume they are.

Of the last ten games town won 50% of the time.

Were basically creating POE's like "Don't lie for no apparent reason"

"Don't hammer yourself" that seem pretty obvious and reasonable. 

Earth literally lynched himself, how was that an error in MY judgement?

"You what fuck you guys

vtl Earth"

My character is from before the Soviets.

Alright fine,  I am Ivan the Great, Russia's first tsar.

My PM explicitly says I was tsar, so w/e.

Well if you are town, casey is doing something funny here.

Earth - Lynched DP1 - You are Ivan III, aka Ivan the Great! Ivan III was the first person in Russian history to bear the title of ‘Tsar’, and reigned as Tsar for longer than any other monarch in Russian history except for his grandson, Ivan IV. As Tsar, Ivan III ended the dominance of the Tatars over Russia and brought other lands into his territory through purchase and conquest. Because of how Ivan consolidated power and brought more people and territory under Russian control, you may add more people to your own neighborhood. You are the Neighborizer. Once per night, you may target any other player to add them to your own Neighborhood, a private chat where every member can directly talk with each other as long as they are alive. You win with the Town.

You painting yourself and that2user as bully victims disregards all the other valid reasons there are to put you into the position you are in. 

That you aren't able to see how a townie lying is harmful is a bit baffling. 

I just gave you a scenario with your own role.

If you think I should have lied in any capacity with my role

it makes you a giant hypocrite for voting me now, suggesting I am lying about my results. You wouldn't need to "prove" my results if I wasn't lying.

Yes.

"Messing with night kills" is inherently what protective roles do. Thats what every known protective role does, including your own. Thats what protective roles are designed to do. 

My list has caught scum, and based on what I am seeing you are likely it.

Very unlikely. Remember dreamer only receives results if I am not visited.

You're infinitely more likely to not be visited or killed if you don't tell the mafia you're a dreamer.

I got results, if I had not ousted them dp1 I risk being night killed NP2 and town never gets ANY results.

Secondly after finding out that multiple scum can be on the results, multiple lists don't help as much as I initially thought they did. 

I think it would help more in that case.

Explain.

I've been to the mafia universe championship games 3 times now, where every online forum that plays mafia get to compete against each other.

Didn't say bad. Being blind to when you are in one is bad though, especially if the core skill of the game is figuring out what other people are thinking.

I have no idea what you think this proves or indicates beyond internal balancing.

Apparent reason != no reason. We don't know why That2User lied but suspicion about a story is not identical to catching someone in a lie. That2User was town, nobody knew she lied until she was lynched.

Assuming her reason for keeping her role hidden was good, the lesson might just to be to lie more carefully; but lacking knowledge of the subculture which apparently informs you of the role layout noobs or people from another subculture can't lie effectively.

You remember when I said I didn't know what Earth was supposed to have said that was suspicious?

What do Earth, That2User, and I all have in common?

1.) New to this game and this particular subculture

2.) WE DIDN'T FIND EACH OTHER'S BEHAVIOR SUSPICIOUS, I went with the crowd on User, my personal take was that she was acting town.

That's how you know this is an interface failure and not "throwing the game". Of course if you consider not knowing the interface throwing the game that's up to you but you might want to write a manual with all these hidden cultural rules because they do not flow from objective game theory.

Guess who Earth was? Drumroll: He resisted claiming for a little bit, told the truth, got lynched, and people blamed everyone but themselves (their own reasoning).

In the Eragon game, I was town, I told the truth about everything, I got lynched, and people blamed everyone but themselves (their own reasoning).

Above Banana said "Well if you [Earth] are town, casey is doing something funny here."

So do you agree? Is casey doing something funny?

I was not suspicious of Earth, I was right. 

As long as you don't care if your "valid reasons" lead to valid results, I don't care what your reasons are.

My list has caught scum, and based on what I am seeing you are likely it.

...and when you're wrong it will be my fault, just like it was That2User's fault and Earth's fault. So fun, so interesting, so dynamic.

I got results, if I had not ousted them dp1 I risk being night killed NP2 and town never gets ANY results.

So make your fake claim something of low threat to the mafia.

Pushes the average scum on the list above 33%. How much I don't know because I don't know the method of choosing.

If it's "pick random scum" then "pick two random players" then it would be (100% + 1/Remaining players + 1/(Remaining players - 1)) / 3

So if there were 8 remaining players (9 including the original scum) it would be (100% + 1/(8) + 1/(8 - 1)) / 3 = 42%

You do that twice and any names in both lists are very likely to be scum. 1-((1-0.42)(1-0.42)) = 66% for example.

I've been to the mafia universe championship games 3 times now, where every online forum that plays mafia get to compete against each other.

How would that be done?

Surely you couldn't put all DART members in town or scum, they would recognize the familiar faces and see the pattern. Therefore it follows that the players must be randomly distributed into games and then the win rates of the various forums added up, correct?

I’m down to ignore lynching third party this game and just scum hunt for second place. Or do you joint win?

I'm the TP, specifically the Hider-Survivor, but I've largely just been playing this as I would a town Hider. I used my role on Banana since I figured she would be the least likely target of an NK (already used her Executioner role, wasn't the only person widely townread) hoping that someone might try to use their role on me, either for confirmation or to catch them in a lie, since their role would fail. Doubt it will be useful in that regard after this claim, but here we are.

I’m largely fine with that set of people remaining in PoE, though I will note the lack of a claim from you is still pretty glaring. Is there a good reason to withhold at this point?

I was typing it up when you posted this lol

Lol, one step ahead. Yeah, I understand with that role, though it definitely doesn’t make you a priority lynch, particularly if we have enough information. Can see a world in which you’d say you’re a late auto-lynch, wait until everyone else claimed, and just figure out a good claim to go along with it that would not be an auto-lynch (I think this is arguable), but I expected Dostoevsky to be in this game, so I think this is believable.