The Russian Mafia DP3

Author: Casey_Risk

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@Vader
@ILikePie5
I targetted whiteflame NP1 and Pie NP2. I asked Whiteflame about the fruit because I just wanted to see if he would lie about it at all. Doesn't rule him out of POE but he was telling the truth
I got nothing from you. So either you were manipulated or you’re lying

Now that is confusing, because whiteflame got fruit np1. Maybe he was redirected? 
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Did anyone get fruit last night?
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  1. ILikePie5 - ??? - ???
  2. Lunatic - Dmitri Mendeleev - Dreamer
  3. whiteflame - Leon Trotsky - ???
  4. Vader - Pyotr Stolypin - Fruit Vendor
  5. iamanabanana - Ivan IV - Executioner
  6. Cerulean - ??? - ???
  7. ADreamOfLiberty - Gregori Potemkin - Shield


Earth - Ivan III - Neighborizer
Savant - Sergei Witte - DP2 Emissary
That2 - Grigori Rasputin - White Mage
Mharman - Mikhail Gorbachev - Watcher

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@ADreamOfLiberty
Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.
It can’t be confirmed but it helps everyone else build behavioral reads. Like it’s interesting why you’re willing to blindly trust me regarding my reading of Banana, if you can’t trust me
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@Lunatic
Did anyone get fruit last night?
Do you think there are 3 scum?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
You had two chances to protect the night kill if the role you claimed is legit.
and how would I possibly know who was going to be night killed (outside the list and Luna)?

I am not saying you could have known. I just want to know who you targeted and what your thought process was so I can come to the conclusion about whether it was a genuine miss, or decide if the reasons for who you targeted don't line up. 

We can piece together who is lying out of you three better by organizing who visited who last night.
No you can't because you don't know who is telling the truth about visiting whom.

If you have a form of corroboration, start there. Otherwise this is irrelevant and if you are scum it's merely a tool which you might use to distract from the cold hard numbers.
How are we supposed to decide who we believe is telling the truth if you refuse to comply with the general consensus population and give basic information away like who you targeted? Are you presuming the whole game of mafia is just random guessing who the scum team is? What's the point of playing a game like that? We try to make educated guesses based on player decisions and motivations. 
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@ILikePie5
Actually retarded. Idk what the end goal was. Like if she had just claimed White Mage, everyone would’ve been fine with it
Exactly, Rasputin is actually a prominent character I figured would have been in the game as well. I literally see no reason for the lie. 
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@ILikePie5
Like it’s interesting why you’re willing to blindly trust me regarding my reading of Banana
I never said anything which could be interpreted as "blind trust", or in fact trust of any kind.

In fact the only thing I said about banana vs user was that there was more support for going after user and user's logic for lynching Lunatic immediately was right and that was townie of That2User.

... and guess what she was town. My sole behavioral analysis was correct.

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@ADreamOfLiberty
Maybe I'm getting too emotional about this: but if town lynches the two people who got the math right (User and I) and then said "they threw it" I think I'm about done playing mafia. You all got your secret hand shakes and your palm reading, but in the end you're still lynching town and you're still losing.
I can't compensate for poor skill of my fellow townies. Did you not realize what happened? Look at that2users flip. She claimed to be anastasia, and a beloved princess. She was actually a protective role, and Rasputin. She was town and literally lied about her role. Town have no reason to lie. 90% of the reason she was scum read initially was because of the inconsistencies with her claim, her being in the dreamer results was only a bit of icing on the cake. Earth literally self hammered and was CC'ed as the first tsar as russia. 
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.
I really don't like that this is your response to a request for basic information about what you did. You didn't have any problem giving out that information after you claimed in DP1, but now you do, and your reasoning for the shift is that you don't think it's valuable to town (I'd say more information is usually valuable, particularly this far into a game) and that you could be lying (which is a bad reason not to give information that could potentially be validated by someone else).

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@ILikePie5
Do you think there are 3 scum?
I don't know, I can tell you if I was modding this I would have 100% put in three scum. You've seen me put 3 scum in two of my recent 10 player games, and town has won both of them. 11 players balances perfectly with 3 scum if your going for your average four mislynches. That or there is a third party role or something to compensate, 4 mislynches seems like an uphill battle for a scum team. 
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@ILikePie5
Average 3 mislynches* 
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@Lunatic
I can't compensate for poor skill of my fellow townies.
Yea, they're just lynching themselves. Why didn't they act like town?

It couldn't possibly be that your idea of town behavior and role layouts is a little over-constrained.


She was actually a protective role, and Rasputin.
So you were saying there were too many protective roles when there were two claims of protective roles, but if there were three you wouldn't have lynched That2User?

No, you would have found it even more suspicious; or else all this crowing about "too many protective roles" is deception.

There are two protective roles in town (I know for certain) and I wouldn't be surprised if Ceru is also a protective town.


She was town and literally lied about her role. Town have no reason to lie.
Town has plenty of reasons to lie. Your own role might have been more useful if you had withheld your claim until you had two or even three lists.

How could you have done that if you had told the truth about your role when it was demanded?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.
What? Then how do you expect to play this game lol
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@whiteflame
You didn't have any problem giving out that information after you claimed in DP1, but now you do
You know what it is? I bet I turned into scum.


...give information that could potentially be validated by someone else
Let the validator make his claim, otherwise this is speculation.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I never said anything which could be interpreted as "blind trust", or in fact trust of any kind.
So why do you automatically go to Luna over Banana?

In fact the only thing I said about banana vs user was that there was more support for going after user and user's logic for lynching Lunatic immediately was right and that was townie of That2User.
That2 played in an anti-town manner. If she had told the truth since the beginning, she wouldn’t have gotten lynched

... and guess what she was town. My sole behavioral analysis was correct.

ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
I can't compensate for poor skill of my fellow townies. Did you not realize what happened? Look at that2users flip. She claimed to be anastasia, and a beloved princess. She was actually a protective role, and Rasputin. She was town and literally lied about her role. Town have no reason to lie. 90% of the reason she was scum read initially was because of the inconsistencies with her claim, her being in the dreamer results was only a bit of icing on the cake. Earth literally self hammered and was CC'ed as the first tsar as russia. 
If ADOL is town, that’s literally 3 throwers on my team. Literally cannot win
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@Lunatic
I don't know, I can tell you if I was modding this I would have 100% put in three scum. You've seen me put 3 scum in two of my recent 10 player games, and town has won both of them. 11 players balances perfectly with 3 scum if your going for your average four mislynches. That or there is a third party role or something to compensate, 4 mislynches seems like an uphill battle for a scum team. 
Ya tbh I agree with you. I would’ve designed it with at least 1 TP with 2 scum or 3 scum. If there are 3 scum, then lynching me is game over sadly. I think we need to get Cerulean’s full claim. Then Whiteflame. Then I’ll claim cause might as well. Then we can decide how we want to proceed. With 2 townies already throwing and a possible third, we’re probably not winning this anyway.
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@Cerulean
Full claim please
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@ADreamOfLiberty
You know what it is? I bet I turned into scum.
I didn't claim you had, nor have I ever argued for your lynch. Why are you being this defensive when I'm not accusing you of anything?

Let the validator make his claim, otherwise this is speculation.
Setting aside the fact that validation doesn't just take the form of "I know what you did" moments, I have absolutely no idea why you're being this intransigent. Part of the goal of town is to help solve the game, yet you're actively denying information that could be useful to town on the basis that you, personally, don't think it will be. Really helpful.

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@whiteflame
Do you have a reason to withhold your role right now?
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@ILikePie5
I wouldn't withhold it if I didn't. I'll clear things up when I get at least a couple of night actions.
Lunatic
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I can't compensate for poor skill of my fellow townies.
Yea, they're just lynching themselves. Why didn't they act like town?

It couldn't possibly be that your idea of town behavior and role layouts is a little over-constrained.

Basically, a sophisticated way to tell me I am trash at the game. That's comforting considering I've been playing games on this site and DDO for 16 years (Literally half my life). Look I'm not claiming to be a god at mafia or anything, but there is meta's and behaviors that town can generally follow to win. Lying and self voting are not among those strategies. That you aren't able to see how a townie lying is harmful is a bit baffling. 

So you were saying there were too many protective roles when there were two claims of protective roles, but if there were three you wouldn't have lynched That2User?
No. Btw she was executed, wasn't even unanimously lynched. But if she were it would have been justified based on the fact that she was town and lied, because most people were scum reading her day phase one based on inconsistencies with her claim. Turns out she was actually lying so it makes sense. If she were honest from the beginning this wouldn't have been an issue. 

No, you would have found it even more suspicious; or else all this crowing about "too many protective roles" is deception.

There are two protective roles in town (I know for certain) and I wouldn't be surprised if Ceru is also a protective town.

The reason there likely isn't three protective roles, is because it doesn't balance well. Mafia have three different roles that can fvck with their night kill? How is that fair? I've seen game with two, even games with three, but in games with three protective roles there is usually more killing roles to compensate for it. The only other claimed killing role we have is bananas which is a day role, thus cannot be protected against. It would be unanimously unfair to put three protective roles against scum in this case. Thus is it likely that one of you and cerulean are lying. 

Town has plenty of reasons to lie.
Catching people in lies is how you scum hunt. You don't want town to be among the people you have to be catching in lies for the same reason you don't lie to the police detective. Lying is suspicious. 

Your own role might have been more useful if you had withheld your claim until you had two or even three lists.
Very unlikely. Remember dreamer only receives results if I am not visited. The chances I am not visited are astronomically low in general, I am very surprised it even happened day phase 1. Secondly after finding out that multiple scum can be on the results, multiple lists don't help as much as I initially thought they did. 

There are situations in which town can lie to their benefit, but it has to be done well and there has to be an exceptionally good reason for it, and I don't understand what that2users reason was, or what she was trying to accomplish, when she could have helped us get to where we are at now, last day phase. Where we know one of you or ceru is likely scum. 
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@ILikePie5
Ya tbh I agree with you. I would’ve designed it with at least 1 TP with 2 scum or 3 scum. If there are 3 scum, then lynching me is game over sadly. I think we need to get Cerulean’s full claim. Then Whiteflame. Then I’ll claim cause might as well. Then we can decide how we want to proceed. With 2 townies already throwing and a possible third, we’re probably not winning this anyway.
Agreed
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Are you going to say who you visited or not? If you’re not going to say, we are going to assume by default you are scum and lynch you.
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@Cerulean
Ping
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@ILikePie5
So why do you automatically go to Luna over Banana?
I explained that carefully in DP2. All that has changed is there is now less room for error.

(1) If we lynch Luna and he's town then you know for sure that it's either Banana or I. You misslynch and town loses, but at least you have a chance of winning that way. Call that 50% chance of hitting scum. Would have been much better if we had started with Luna.

(2) If we lynch Luna and he's scum, then banana and I are exonerated. Not only have scum been found but the chances of miss-lynching town are drastically reduced.

If you lynch Banna or myself first you might be thinking that's 50/50 just like the first scenario, but that's wrong.

The actual alternative is between this 50/50 chance and the union of (1) and (2).

If the probability that Luna is scum is 25% then the probability that he is town is 0.75% and the probability that one of the two people left on the list is scum is at least 0.75 * 0.5 = 0.375.

You add that to the 0.25 and you get 62.5% chance of hitting scum in two days.

You start with people on the list it's not that high. It's not even 50/50 because you can lynch both Banana and I and we might both be innocent. That scenario is likely if Luna is scum, so sticking with the same made up number of 25% the chance that both of us (on the list) are town would also be 25% which means you only have 75% room between Banana and I. 75%/2 = 37.5%.

It doesn't matter how more or less suspicious of Banana or I you are, if there is a non-zero chance that Luna is scum that skews the numbers.

You want to know how little Lunatic would have to be suspected in order to make lynching from the list the safer bet at this point?

P_ls + (1 - P_ls)(0.5) = (1 - P_ls)/2
P_ls = 0

The only time it makes sense (mathematically) is when you're certain Luna is town. Yes I know many things are excluded including the possibility that Luna put his scum partner on the list, but this is the baseline. You have my reasoning, you want to pretend like its an excuse go ahead.


If she had told the truth since the beginning, she wouldn’t have gotten lynched
I don't believe that for a second.


If ADOL is town, that’s literally 3 throwers on my team.
Maybe you should expand your definition of "town behavior" to include these "throwers". You might lynch less townies.


Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.
What? Then how do you expect to play this game lol
With excessive sarcasm at the moment.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I don't believe that for a second.

So your strategy in a game where your supposed to find liars is for everyone to just lie?

Maybe you should expand your definition of "town behavior" to include these "throwers". You might lynch less townies.
The general idea is to just lynch them, let them know what they did wrong, and eventually they fix the behavior, or they continue to lose games for their team. Most of the time they get with the idea though. I don't mind losing a few games (frustrating as it can be in the moment) if it teaches someone the correct way to play in the long run. Many of our active players made mistakes like this at one point or another and eventually just got better over time. We can hope the same for players like that2user and earth.

What? Then how do you expect to play this game lol
With excessive sarcasm at the moment.
Seems like a very helpful way to achieve your win condition. 
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VTL ADOL

Don’t really care at this point
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