Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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#241
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@Casey_Risk
Who is your strongest townread right now and why?
I'd say that's you. Behaviorally, you've been the most consistent with your previous town play. Wouldn't be the first time I've been fooled by a good performance, but I'm just not seeing it this game.

If it helps, I can give a sort of breakdown of where everyone resides.

Mikal and Savant are in a similar camp. Their behavior makes me want to townread them, but they're both coming into this with markedly different styles than they have previously, so it's hard to give them a solid townread.

Banana's behavior is a little off from what I'd expect, but more in the way that I'm watching someone try something new as town than that they're skewing their behavior to look more townie. She's my slightest townread, but still in there.

As for the remainder... yeah, I know I'm not committing to any real scumreads in this mix. Everyone's various shades of null.

My gutread of Pie is that he's likely town, but he's one I'm particularly skittish about when it comes to behavioral reads, so I'm not settled there.

Earth is a bit of an outlier behaviorally, but based on what I know of him, if anything he's closer to a townread than a scumread for me. He's softing more about his character than I'd expect for him as scum, though that's less than I'd like to go off of for a read.

Mharman and WyIted seem to be going through mostly familiar motions that could swing either way depending on where they take them.




#242
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@Earth
My first thought was the probability shit is probably bullshit
It's little more than a rough estimate at this point, but I'm hoping that after I play enough games I can determine whether I tend to overestimate or underestimate at certain probabilities and get better.
#243
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@Earth
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@Casey_Risk
I like WF's new posts a lot (also Earth's). Just by process of elimination I'd probably suspect at least one scum between Austin and Moozer. Ofc that depends on how reliable my fidgeting around with percentages has been, but I agree with WF that there aren't many red flags atm.
#244
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Apologies, long post incoming. My reads have basically doubled in length, so I think now is a good time to post them again. Don't feel the need to read it all tonight.
#245
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Reads List 2.0
Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 70%, since there are 7 town players besides me and 3 scum players.

Casey_Risk
  • Town Lean (77.5%)
  • Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
  • Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
  • #78 - TL - I don’t think scum Casey would agree with no lynch either, but this is a towny concern to bring up.
  • #80, #86, #91 - TL - I agree with the read on banana, and I think defending other players like this for pretty justifiable reasons is pro-town. Some of these things not being super AI is why my reads aren’t super strong at the moment, but I thought it was worth taking everything into account. I think generously town reading players is an unlikely scum play, and it indicates that Casey is not worried about POE getting too small around them.
  • #81 - TL - Not super indicative, but I think enthusiasm for sharing role information is generally a good sign.
  • #98, #102, #129, #147 - TL - Feels like genuine scum hunting, inquiry, and theme analysis.
  • #155, #190 - SL - The first post seemed like it could be genuine, and I’ve seen townies with convictions like this. However, in the second post, it’s odd that Casey quoted Mikal without noting that Luna said the tactic didn’t go against the rules. Might indicate that Casey objected for the purpose of hindering town.
  • #129, #193, #200, #210 - TL - Concise and reasonable. Casey stuck more to the details of other people’s posts in their town game (Serial Killers) here and here for example, but tended to ramble and be more verbose in their scum game here and here for example. Also drawing more attention to themselves than they need to just to ask questions, which I don’t think scum would expect to be town read for.
  • #205 - TL - Town reading another player they don’t have to, but mostly with substantive info. Could have been more concise in response to my previous post to be more town read but wasn’t. (And despite having a paragraph it doesn’t feel like rambling.) Fixation on a small detail that town might genuinely be bugged by but that scum would probably avoid going down for fear of looking like they’re trying to invent an issue.
  • #218, #227, #228 - TL - More solid, pro-town analysis that seems like noticeable effort to identify scum and town
Mikal
  • Town Lean (75.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
  • Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
  • #16 - TL - An early post where the vote seems more substantive than for “joke” reasons, even if the goal is just to get someone’s attention, it’s not presented alongside a quip.
  • #18, #25, #27 - TL - Ticking off another player like this would be an odd move coming from scum. Really I only see it biasing people against Mikal, hence I’m inclined to town read it. WIFOM, I know, but I just don’t see Mikal banking on being town read for being annoying.
  • #34, #57, #137 - TL - I like that Mikal is taking the lead, and the explanation of the even-odd strat seems largely towny.
  • #36, #38 - TL - Confronting another player out the gate is good, and Mikal is asking something I was curious about as well. This is pro-town at the very least. Also Mikal tends to be more confrontational as town (here, here, here, here) and more laid-back as scum (here, here, here)
  • #165 - TL - This kind of indecision and uncertainty about another player comes from town more often than from scum.
  • #209 - TL - Sticks to his guns without planting additional seeds for a push.
iamabanana
  • Town Lean (72.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: BBdp1, BBdp2
  • #7 - TL - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
  • #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
  • #198 - LT - I like how banana sticks to her guns here, and the answer seems focused on town perspective rather than just being defensive.
  • #199 - LT - Putting pressure on inactives like this is a town concern, and her response before is long and noticeable enough that just voting for Moozer wouldn’t be done to divert attention. If banana were scum under pressure, I think she would focus on either putting pressure on Moozer or giving a sufficient defense (not both).
Earth
  • Town Lean (72.5%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
  • #35 - TL - For an infrequent poster, drawing attention early without a need comes across as more instinctive to town than to scum.
  • #117 - TL - I don’t think scum Earth would offer to out his show without prompting.
  • #157 - TL - Pro-town imo to advocate this strategy, even offering a way to make it more feasible.
  • #235, #239, #240 - T - So much agreement here, and I’ll give Earth more credit for this than someone like WF (who is very towny as scum). If anything, I might suspect that Earth is copying my reads, but overall his reasoning is close to what I would say.
Mharman
  • Town Lean (72%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • #60, #61 - TL - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
  • #105 - T - The read on Mikal seems genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum suspect someone and then give a reason why they actually might not be suspicious with zero pushback.
  • #143, #144, #145 - TL - More questions that seem like they’re coming from a towny perspective, I don’t think scum Mharman would pretend not to know if scum have questions just to get town read.
iLikePie5
  • Null (70%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
  • Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
  • #48, #49, #51 - TL - I like that Pie’s first posts are immediately about the game, no attempts to gain cred just through agreeableness.
  • #55, #119, #120 - NAI - After reading Casey’s post, I agree that this probably isn’t a town slip. Pie’s explanation is fine. I could see these posts coming from either alignment
  • #121, #122, #124, #126, #127 - SL - Pie is active as usual, which isn’t particularly AI, but his posts seem kind of noncommittal, mostly agreeing or giving meta information about players. Kind of the bare minimum to appear active.
  • #125 - TL - I like that Pie is challenging a player, somewhat mitigates with my concerns about the other posts being noncommittal
  • #136, #138 - TL - Towny concerns, and it somewhat convinces me the earlier meta analysis was genuinely aimed toward helping town
  • #141, #142 - TL - Retracting an accusation like that indicates to me it was probably sincere. Could be faked or maybe forced by the situation, but I don’t think scum Pie would back down out of fear or plan to challenge and then back down.
Wylted
  • Scum Lean (66%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
  • Playing as Scum: Castledp1
  • #3 - SL - I know it’s WIFOM, but if this post is alignment indicative (not convinced it is), I think the intent is to appear unafraid of gaining attention and hence towny, especially since WyIted is usually given a pass for such posts. Which in turn makes it a strategic move for scum.
  • #45 - SL - I don’t love that WyIted immediately qualifies his claim with a fun fact about reality shows. If he gave that information separately, it would be fine, but I think that when people are being deceptive or discussing information they don’t want revealed, they have a tendency to immediately answer the question and then change the subject.
  • #77 - TL - The concern here seems towny, since we are only a few pages in.
  • #93, #95, #97, #103, #108 - TL - This actually mitigates some of my previous concerns, it comes across as WyIted genuinely being interested in theme analysis and the topic in general.
whiteflame
  • Scum Lean (65%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
  • #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste. Casey is probably right that this isn’t that significant, so the lean is very slight.
  • #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
  • #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
  • #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
  • #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
  • #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
  • #234 - LT - I’m seeing a good amount of effort here put into explaining the “why” behind his reads, and all of it seems fairly logical from a town perspective. I agree with him here more than I disagree with him, and I don’t see any opportunistic scum reads or possibly partnered town reads sticking out.
  • #241 - LT - Agree on Casey being a top town read. See where WF is coming from on Mikal’s behavior, and if WF is town, then it makes sense for there to be no clear scum reads atm. Maybe I’m giving too much credit based off of agreement, and I do think scum WF would acknowledge strong town reads, but the lack of apparent agenda here is a green flag.
AustinL0926
Moozer325

#246
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@Savant
I like WF's new posts a lot (also Earth's).
Would you mind explaining why? Personally, I completely disagree. I don't like how non-committal WF is being, though I suppose I should clarify that I don't like how he has no strong town or scum reads. I feel like even with Moozer and Austin being absent, there's been enough movement to get a pretty good read on someone. Like, he says that he's just not seeing any reason to believe I'm merely putting on a performance, but I'm still only a slight townread.

As for Earth, I don't like how he considers Moozer being absent to be NAI, but with Austin, it's a scumtell and is going to get him lynched if he keeps it up? Huh???? Maybe he's just a townie with bad logic, but it doesn't help the case for him being town at any rate.
#247
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So many posts seemed towny that a lot of probabilities were shifted downward to make the averages work. Basically, I assume that I have some tendency toward town reading and that active posters are disproportionately town and adjust for that.
#248
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@Casey_Risk
I like WF's new posts a lot (also Earth's).
Would you mind explaining why? Personally, I completely disagree.
The huge post explains my thought process (see newer bullets). I've noticed your reads differ a bit from mine, but in a towny way if that makes sense? Anyway, I think it's good that we have a long day phase to talk this through.

As for Earth, I don't like how he considers Moozer being absent to be NAI, but with Austin, it's a scumtell and is going to get him lynched if he keeps it up?
Will take another look at that, wasn't really what caught my attention.
#249
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@Earth
@Casey_Risk
Austin and Moozer haven't posted yet, NAI for Moozer. I get Austin might be busy, but I definitely think we should get input from him. I'm obviously not going to suggest we lynch myself, so maybe if Austin will be the lynch if he continues as he is.
I actually don't see this thought process as likely from a scum perspective, and there might be something behind it, but I do think it's very much incorrect. (Guess I didn't agree with Earth on everything.) We lynched Austin before for not being active and he was town. Then he showed up late to another game and was town there to. So my experience is the opposite of yours.
#250
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@Casey_Risk
he says that he's just not seeing any reason to believe I'm merely putting on a performance, but I'm still only a slight townread.
I'll have to check his town and scum play, but I would attribute this to still being early in day 1 with very few claims. In this environment we usually get at least a few upfront, so he could be used to working with that.
#251
Earth
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@Casey_Risk
As for Earth, I don't like how he considers Moozer being absent to be NAI, but with Austin, it's a scumtell and is going to get him lynched if he keeps it up? Huh???? Maybe he's just a townie with bad logic, but it doesn't help the case for him being town at any rate.
Moozer does seem to be a bit like me in that are like me. Maybe they are lurking scum, or maybe they struggle to find the motivation to read and post. Austin does not have that luxury. Maybe hes busy, but I think Austin knows he can pop in and say hes busy and hes trying to catch up or whatever.
#252
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@Savant
We lynched Austin before for not being active and he was town. Then he showed up late to another game and was town there to.
First one is Luna's Recycled Roles, I remember that. I think you're probably referring to Heroic Heroes with the latter example, but there was also US Presidential Elections where the same thing happened (you weren't in that one). So yeah, I don't think Austin being a no-show so far is in any way A-I.
#253
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@Casey_Risk
Look at these reads from when WF was town. They seem pretty equally noncommittal. Tbh, he's usually noncommittal as scum too. But the parts he does have takes on I tend to agree with here.
#254
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@Earth
Moozer does seem to be a bit like me in that are like me. Maybe they are lurking scum, or maybe they struggle to find the motivation to read and post. Austin does not have that luxury. Maybe hes busy, but I think Austin knows he can pop in and say hes busy and hes trying to catch up or whatever.
As Savant and I have already noted, Austin has shown up late at least three times and been town each time. This really isn't unusual for him, even if it's a bit annoying.

Here's a question for you: You already said that you're "debating just outting my show lol." Do you have any particular reason to avoid doing that at this point?
#255
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@Savant
Look at these reads from when WF was town. They seem pretty equally noncommittal. Tbh, he's usually noncommittal as scum too. But the parts he does have takes on I tend to agree with here.
See, but even with that first link, WF said that Mharman "looks town to me". None of WF's current reads are that strong. I just feel like he should have a more solid read on at least one player at this point, given that we've had a pretty decent amount of activity from a few players. But I'll concede that if anyone would give such noncommittal reads as town, it would probably be WF.
#256
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starting to lean town heavier on wf 
#257
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Would say he moved from null ish to validating some thoughts I had. Slight town lean now 
#258
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@Mikal
Would say he moved from null ish to validating some thoughts I had.
That's interesting, because I felt like I disagreed a lot with you but agreed with a lot of WF's reads.
#259
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@Savant
Not town off his reads but his behavior. I think he would commit more as scum.  Ironically the reason I scum read earth is why I town read him. 
#260
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@Casey_Risk
Point taken with Austin. For my show however, I think the issue simply fell from the mind of town. I would have had no issue if I was part of the whole "everyone claim at once" deal, but I don't really have a reason to anymore. 
#261
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@Casey_Risk
WF said that Mharman "looks town to me"
I don't see it as a big enough difference to be a scum tell, but fair enough in that it is a difference.
#262
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@Lunatic
The more earth posts the more I think he’s scum. It’s like after pressure he is trying to have some type of reads just to satisfy the push. 

I think I’m sold. 

Luna 

Day Vig Earth - Confirm
#263
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@Mikal
The more earth posts the more I think he’s scum. It’s like after pressure he is trying to have some type of reads just to satisfy the push. 

I think I’m sold. 

Luna 

Day Vig Earth - Confirm
This is a reaction test, isn't it?
#264
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@Savant
This is a reaction test, isn't it?
If it is, why give it away? Not saying you're scum or anything (I actually think you're solid town), but damn.
#265
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@Casey_Risk
If it is, why give it away? Not saying you're scum or anything (I actually think you're solid town), but damn.
I don't think these reaction tests are particularly useful. In retrospect, I probably should have just let it play out, but I did want to know if Earth had really been killed.
#266
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Still not 100% sure tbh.
#267
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Reaction test for who responded more than him and I think it just town locked you for me 
#268
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@Mikal
Reaction test for who responded more than him and I think it just town locked you for me 
Lol I was almost gonna be catty and say "well I reacted, didn't I?" but I figured it was for Earth.
#269
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Few diff ways that could play out. I think it could gave got a rise out of earth and gave some affiliation hints but figured someone would say something before him 

Scum eould not respond. They would let it play out or message him in a pm. They have no incentive to respond to that. If it’s a correct target, they would talk in theirs dms. If he was town they would let it continue to see if he died or how for a Mislynch 

Think the response heavily indicates town 
#270
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@Mikal
You stole that from FT, you scoundrel lol.