Game Show Mafia DP1

Moozer seems pretty null to me, nothing stood out to me when I was reading through his posts

I have like the barest basics of a worldview now but I don't feel confident in any of it.

I need to go study, I'll be back in like 45 minutes. If anyone is around, please give a direction for me to explore, it can be a player, a particular section of the game, a specific interaction, etc, but I really need something to bite on to.

Does no one read opening posts anymore? There are 3 mafiosos.

My justification is that Survivor is a show about having physical and mental trials to the very end yadda yadda last town etc.

I didn't read it, when I didn't have a read on a single player I didn't exactly prioritize reading the mod posts. If I was scum I'd know the actual number of scum which should make me town here but it's also technically fakable so read me off it or not, idc lol.

The justification fits fine I think.

Who are your main scumreads right now?

I am going to attempt a read list. I am going to be fully honest, I skimmed through a lot of the really big posts, when I was catching up, but I did my best to pick up on the major details and for the most part I think I am good for these, or at least hope I won't come off as a complete dummy with these.

Earth- I lean town on him, the role and the claim fit really well in my opinion. Survivor and soldier just make sense. I've never seen a soldier used, so I can't speak to how common or uncommon it is, but based on some of the comments from mikal and others, it appears the role is somewhat rare, or obscure. This is a very good reason to town read earth, because a lot of the argument towards lynching him is based on apparent laziness, lack of effort, or perceived skill level right? So if that's the argument for why he is scum, then there is no way he comes up with an obscure role like that, instead of sticking with a more common role. Pie has touched on this point quite a bit, and I tend to agree with him, if we are going to call him scum, we HAVE to acknowledge that this at the very least was the fake claim provided by the mod. If we are looking at it from that logic, it's almost easier just to go with "he's probably just town" right? That said behaviorally, I don't think he has done anything that stands out to me. At least no more than he has in the past game. I did vote to lynch him in Russian mafia because my role directly contradicted what he was saying about his role, but other than that I don't think his behavior was very different from here, maybe aside him getting a lot of flack for self voting, which to me I don't know, I get being frustrated. I was pretty close to doing that in the game where everyone was scum reading me for what felt like bad reasons so I understand that. But here I just don't see anything about him that really sticks out to me. And the read mikal has on him feels like he is going above and beyond to find anything scummy about earth. The fact that earth seems to be looked at as a common or easy mislynch, and that he is targeting me in conjunction with earth, also is part of the reason I am town leaning earth here. It seems like no matter how far down the rabbit hole Mikal goes with earth, his read never lessens, only strengthens. I don't see how mikal doesn't seem to have any doubt here, and earths responses do come off as genuine to me. On that note I can go into mikal next...

Mikal- Lean scum. Initially I really liked his posts, thought processes, and activity, and was kind of sure he was town. The more he has doubled down on what I feel are VERY bad reads, the more I have a hard time seeing him as town. Mikal does come across as a very smart and motivated individual, but a lot of his responses don't hit in a logical way, and some of his other posts prove that he is a very logical person. It's getting strange to the point where it seems like he has to double down on these scum reads, more to help convince other people of them then himself if that make sense. Like no matter what responses I or earth had to him, rather than taking it into consideration and going "Oh i'll sleep on that and re-evaluate later" he almost always comes back to just repeating the same reasons for scum reading us, as if he isn't actually considering us being town at all. I can see the scum motivation to lead a mislynch here, and he probably feels me and earth aren't targets that will fight back hard enough to prevent the inevitable "steamroll" that is his pressure. And in a way, he's right. I personally don't usually have the time to respond to lengthy posts and paragraphs, so he will overwhelm me with responses, and continuously repeat the same points until enough people see that he is making the repeated point and putting in the effort, that they will probably just take his word for it. Same applies to earth. I can physically feel earths frustration in responding to mikal here, because I too cannot keep up with him, and it really is just tiring and pointless feeling. I know I am town, so why should I have to spend so much of the day phase trying to defend myself, especially when the reasons just aren't very good to begin with. I stand by my early decision to get soft claims, and I would do it again in a heart beat, even if this somehow ended up getting me lynched. Anyways to sum up my feelings about mikal, is that his reads don't feel authentic. He goes from semi logical to non-sensical based on the read and the person, and the only reason I can see him acting that way is if he is trying to force a lynch.

Casey- Hard Town. I'll go casey next because she is a stark contrast to Mikal in my opinion. She is posting at length, but her ideas and thought processes come off as more consistent, as opposed to strategic. Also her choice to pressure mikal is a very brave thing to do in this context, considering mikal does seem to be in a lot of people's town pools. What I mean is, as mafia, her going after mikal here is that path of most resistance, and mafia would generally want to avoid that path. I also do find it ironic that she was one of the earlier scum reads by mikal, and mikal kind of quickly backed away from this read when casey came in hard posting hard analysis. Him dropping pressure on her didn't feel natural, it felt more "Oh I got in over my head on this one". I don't really know what else to say about her, other than I also share similar thought processes to her, and nothing about her posts read like she isn't authentic.

iLikePie5- Town lean. I am giving pie a town lean mostly based on his argument in defense of earth. Pie has been posting a lot, but in general it's something I would expect from him in either affiliation, pie just is an active player and obviously cares about mafia a lot. But I have seen pie get frustrated with earth, particularly in the Russian game where he was all too eager to lynch him. Pie was town there. Now pie shows hesitance, but is still saying things like "Funny enough, this is exactly how he reacts as town" in response to mikal targeting earth for easy things. This reads like pie is trying not to make the same mistake that he perceives mikal is making, which shows growth. Ultimately I am leaning town on Pie because he is calling mikal out on his bs though, and he seems to have come to a similar conclusion as me, that mikal is looking for easy mis lynch targets. At this point it probably seems like I am town reading everyone who happens to agree with me, but to me what mikal is doing feels so glaringly obvious that I can't help but to town read others who point it out.

Savant- Town lean. I'll go to savant next, his effort in general feels extremely townie, I resonate with austin in this. While some of the statistical aspects of his reads don't make sense to me, I think it's more of his process and if it works for him great. That said this player feels entirely different than the savant from other games. so I will keep a watchful eye on him. I am hearing a lot of people say he took place in a championship game which could explain this change, but the effort is obviously there, and he hasn't really triggered many alarm bells. Again I'll be honest I have not read a lot of his bigger posts, but I still feel good about him overall.

Whiteflame- Lean scum. So this one is complicated. I can see where people are getting his non committal aspects, for me its more that he IS putting in effort, but some of the conclusions of his reads don't really "math" right. Like I don't see where point A + B = point Z. For example I don't like his recent posts thought on earth. He kind of acknowledges both sides, without really taking any of the mikal points in, while acknowledging there is something there. Then he concludes that the claim is a "safe" role claim, and I honestly just don't see that after he just said he saw pies point. Again the only way that's a safe claim is if its the provided fake claim right? He then leaves earth open with a "null" that feels like he is leaving earth open as a mislynch, idk it feels like earth is a lot of peoples intended lynch target today, and because I town read earth, it makes me extra weary of anyone that seems willing to pull a switch on him if it came to it, and whiteflame leaving earth as an option here feels odd. Then there is the point where he is keeping mikal as a town read, still saying he will look into caseys argument. This is where I see people are probably pointing to his non committalness. To me it looks kind of intentional, like he is doing his best to come accross as open minded without showing the proper steps to how he got there. Idk if any of this makes sense like how it does in my brain.

Mharman- Lean town. Mharman is another case where I don't really get the sense that he is trying to lead mislynches, and his posts come across as authentic. The main reason I am town reading mharman though is the vast difference in his playstyle here then in the last game. In the last game I didn't push him hard enough, but I knew I saw something, and I wish I did. But his activity and overall interest is 10x better than it was in the last game already, and he actually seems like he cares about trying to get this thing right. In the last game, it felt like he only would type big responses in defense of himself, or maybe a bit in the last phase where I was pressuring him a little bit and he knew he had to post more, but really he seems a lot more invested, and his logic adds up much more than it did in the last game. The only counter point I have to my own logic here, is that he also seemed a bit dis interested in Russian mafia, where he was also town, so his overall activity might not be a factor in hid affiliation. But I will say there is a significant increase in the quality of his posts from this game to the last game.

Moozer- Town lean- Mostly for his defense of me. I don't see his motivation in doing that if he was scum, he could easily take advantage of mikals read on me. Instead he is going above and beyond to point out how bad mikals logic was on me, which THANKYOU I am glad someone else sees it.

Wylted- Null- The one thing I will say about wylted that I don't like is him openly speculating about roles and characters that could exist in the game. I feel like he is an experienced enough player to know that is not beneficial. I have seen him do this before as town though, so it could just be a "wylted" thing. I want to see more posts from wylted and see him take some hard stances before I really decide what I think of him, his main push seemed to be on austin for activity, and that is something I am behind as well. I'll leave wylted null for now.

Austin- Null- Austin has come in recently and made some really big posts, at first I was liking it. But the one thing I think is holding me back from town reading him is that it feels like he is selling his own towniness a little too hard. "I would have consulted my scum team, I wouldn't need to catch up, see I am town!" or "I didn't read the OP, see if I was scum I would already know there was 3 scum!", etc etc. He's done that a few too many times for my comfort level, and hes obviously experienced and smart enough to know that stuff would look good for him, so why even bring attention to it? In fact I might have bought him as town for all those reasons anyway, if he hadn't personally brought them up himself. Anyways I wanted to put him as a town lean, but thats the main issue I have with him for the time being.

I think I have a lot of town reads on my list, and unless the scum team was exactly mikal, wylted, and austin, and it probably isn't that easy. So I know I will have to revisit a lot of these as the game continues. Anyways this is what I have for now, and I apologize about the delay in posting these.