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@iamanabanana
Where did Pie say he is the cop?
Game Show Mafia DP2
Posts
Read-only
Total:
791
Reads List 5.0
Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Moozer325
- Town (94.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: IPdp1, IPdp2, IPdp3
- #306, #331 - TL - Seems genuine and open for the most part, though in this position I think scum has no choice but to claim, so only a slight town read.
- #438 - TL - I like these reads, and confident/active players often seem townie, so I buy that read as genuine (particularly with the comparison to last game).
- #530, #534, #543, #545 - T - If Moozer is lying here, it’s a lot of lies packed very densely, and I don’t think scum Moozer would fake that level of analysis.
- #533 - T - Offering to claim right after a decent analysis, hard to fake all of that at once. Seems sincere.
- #9 - T - Earth claims he checked Moozer and confirmed his innocence.
AustinL0926
- Town (85%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, Castledp1
- Playing as Scum: Diarydp1, Diarydp2, Diarydp3
- #583, #599 - T - Very unlikely this role claim is fake or that role belongs to scum. However, if Austin is scum, it’s possible a scum partner came up with this fake role for him, and it is possible it’s the fake scum role claim, since the show doesn’t fit too well. I also think scum would claim everything they want to claim at once, while town would throw out info desperately in Austin’s position.
- #588, #590, #592, #594 - TL - Feels like this is coming from someone genuinely catching up without being fed any information from scum. Town reading as scum here would be pretty bold, though I could see other scum recommending this to build trust.
- #631, #632, #633 - T - Thoughts seem more likely to occur to town, and I agree with the point about Mikal in particular.
- #728, #729, #730 - T - I don’t think scum Austin would analyze posts in this level of detail, effort seems towny.
iLikePie5
- Town Lean (81.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #48, #49, #51 - TL - I like that Pie’s first posts are immediately about the game, no attempts to gain cred just through agreeableness.
- #55, #119, #120 - NAI - After reading Casey’s post, I agree that this probably isn’t a town slip. Pie’s explanation is fine. I could see these posts coming from either alignment
- #121, #122, #124, #126, #127 - SL - Pie is active as usual, which isn’t particularly AI, but his posts seem kind of noncommittal, mostly agreeing or giving meta information about players. Kind of the bare minimum to appear active.
- #125 - TL - I like that Pie is challenging a player, somewhat mitigates with my concerns about the other posts being noncommittal
- #136, #138 - TL - Towny concerns, and it somewhat convinces me the earlier meta analysis was genuinely aimed toward helping town
- #141, #142 - TL - Retracting an accusation like that indicates to me it was probably sincere. Could be faked or maybe forced by the situation, but I don’t think scum Pie would back down out of fear or plan to challenge and then back down.
- #515, #516, #535, #542 - T - Towny analysis that isn’t overly focused on one point (which scum tend to do) and is based on his own role, which I don’t think scum would use as an argument since it would limit their claims later. Impression I’m getting from past games is that Pie is more detail-oriented as town.
- #652, #655, #659 - TL - Pie’s behavior toward Austin remains very consistent, and I think these thoughts are indicative of a genuine town read.
- #654, #656 - TL - Decently towny thought process, and willing to engage even if it means addressing suspicion on himself without countering it.
- #751 - TL - Agree with this, lack of aggression is rare for Pie and in this case it seems genuine since the logic tracks.
- #821 - T - I think it’s very unlikely this was a bus, and if WyIted was planning with Pie to be pushed, he would likely have a better fake claim selected.
Earth
- Town Lean (78%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #35 - TL - For an infrequent poster, drawing attention early without a need comes across as more instinctive to town than to scum.
- #117 - TL - I don’t think scum Earth would offer to out his show without prompting.
- #157 - TL - Pro-town imo to advocate this strategy, even offering a way to make it more feasible.
- #235, #239, #240 - T - So much agreement here (except on inactives), and I’ll give Earth more credit for this than someone like WF (who is very towny as scum). If anything, I might suspect that Earth is copying my reads, but overall his reasoning is close to what I would say.
- #350 - SL - Post justification makes sense, and if it’s fake Survivor probably used up the mafia fake claim, but it’s an easy role to fake claim and non confirmable. Also, the show started in 2000, not before. Not in town’s interest to claim here since it just narrows down power roles and loses all the role’s utility, but could be an attempt to get pressure off by claiming early, while the soldier should want suspicion on them to avoid the NK.
- #353, #359 - SL - Explanation seems iffy to me. There’s a good chance that Earth wanted to keep his claim options open earlier by saying after 2000 and then looked up roles in recent games.
- #603 - TL - The details in Earth’s justification about the Survivor show feel like they could actually be from a role PM (“physical and mental trials to the very end…”) though it’s probably a rephrase.
- #698 - TL - Defending another player for similar reasons he’s used to defend himself makes his posting seem more genuine.
Mikal
- Scum Lean (71%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #16 - TL - An early post where the vote seems more substantive than for “joke” reasons, even if the goal is just to get someone’s attention, it’s not presented alongside a quip.
- #18, #25, #27 - TL - Ticking off another player like this would be an odd move coming from scum. Really I only see it biasing people against Mikal, hence I’m inclined to town read it. WIFOM, I know, but I just don’t see Mikal banking on being town read for being annoying.
- #34, #57, #137 - TL - I like that Mikal is taking the lead, and the explanation of the even-odd strat seems largely towny.
- #36, #38 - TL - Confronting another player out the gate is good, and Mikal is asking something I was curious about as well. This is pro-town at the very least. Also Mikal tends to be more confrontational as town (here, here, here, here) and more laid-back as scum (here, here, here)
- #165 - TL - This kind of indecision and uncertainty about another player comes from town more often than from scum.
- #209 - TL - Sticks to his guns without planting additional seeds for a push.
- #275 - TL - As I mentioned before, aggression like this is a town tell for Mikal, and I think pushing WF for specifics is warranted.
- #277, #281, #288, #289, #290 - TL - Mikal throws out a lot of specifics here that I think scum would have a hard time improvising while remaining genuine. And his attack on Earth is consistent, even if I think it’s mostly unsupported.
- #308, #309, #311, #315, #316 - TL - Very slight town read here. Strategy seems solid with no red flags, but I’ve seen this kind of thing before from Mikal, so it doesn’t move the needle that much.
- #443, #454 - TL - Similar to how I’ve spoken to and about people I suspect when I’m town, perhaps even more obviously sincere than that, and I have a hard time seeing scum fake this.
- #505, #507, #508 - TL - Towny analysis, emotions that seem sincere from a town perspective. The shift on Pie seems sincere to me.
- #537, #540, #549, #555 - T - Very towny annoyance and defense that makes a lot of sense to me. These aren’t super easy mislynches, but Mikal seems to understand how inactives could be perceived that way.
- #570 - SL - Giving up role info to reduce pressure seems more scummy than towny (and the information is barely useful). I mean I could see it as either alignment, but it’s not like revealing this really helps town. Plus, trying to use this to attack Earth feels opportunistic.
- #615 - TL - I agree with Austin that this is a towny consideration from Mikal.
- #666 - TL - Agree with Casey that this is a pro town concern, but the town lean comes more from the way it is phrased, imagining what could go wrong from town POV
- #700, #701 - TL - Attacking banana by defending Moozer and criticizing that read feels pretty towny.
- #847 - SL - Voting for Earth instead of WyIted is suspicious.
iamabanana
- Scum Lean (67.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: BBdp1, BBdp2
- #7 - TL - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
- #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
- #198 - TL - I like how banana sticks to her guns here, and the answer seems focused on town perspective rather than just being defensive.
- #199 - TL - Putting pressure on inactives like this is a town concern, and her response before is long and noticeable enough that just voting for Moozer wouldn’t be done to divert attention. If banana were scum under pressure, I think she would focus on either putting pressure on Moozer or giving a sufficient defense (not both).
- #299 - SL - I don’t love that banana’s only post in a while is a defensive one, repeating a point they already made.
- #378 - TL - Defending Earth like this is townie when he could be a possible lynch today.
- #399, #417, #421 - SL - A bit OMGUSy and overly defensive, and the defense of Earth seems a bit opportunistic as a way to throw suspicion toward Mikal. She’s been focused on defense as scum before here and here, though I couldn’t really find a similar situation to compare that behavior to in her town game. (Although she seemed a bit more open and less accusatory in general as town.)
- #606 - TL - A lot of effort, I think it’s unlikely banana goes this far under pressure if she’s scum.
- #677, #678, #682 - TL - The continued pushing and amount of effort make the read on Mikal feels genuine, especially when banana isn’t the top lynch today.
- #694 - SL - The defensiveness is getting to the point of being excessive and more than I’d expect a town member to actually feel. And denying that it is defensiveness doesn’t really help.
Mharman
- Scum Lean (62.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #60, #61 - TL - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
- #105 - T - The read on Mikal seems genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum suspect someone and then give a reason why they actually might not be suspicious with zero pushback.
- #143, #144, #145 - TL - More questions that seem like they’re coming from a towny perspective, I don’t think scum Mharman would pretend not to know if scum have questions just to get town read.
- #291, #301, #310 - TL - If Mharman is scum here, then the strategy is probably to pursue a WyIted lynch or Pie lynch by throwing out seeds. Or allow Earth to be lynched by not defending him. But he defends inactives decently and defends the town core, so his thoughts seem more likely from genuine town trying to catch up and get thoughts out.
- #318 - TL - Mharman going back and forth on WF seems genuine. Idk if scum would be willing to seem inconsistent like this.
- #321 - SL - This post is pretty verbose, and rambling a bit is often a scum tell. Also could be planting potential seeds for a lynch without committing.
- #885 - SL - Waiting to hammer on scum while claiming he might is suspicious. And since WyIted wanted to post notes, it’s possible they decided that notes from Mharman would look less suspect.
whiteflame
- Scum Lean (60%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
- #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste. Casey is probably right that this isn’t that significant, so the lean is very slight.
- #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
- #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
- #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
- #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
- #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
- #234 - TL - I’m seeing a good amount of effort here put into explaining the “why” behind his reads, and all of it seems fairly logical from a town perspective. I agree with him here more than I disagree with him, and I don’t see any opportunistic scum reads or possibly partnered town reads sticking out.
- #241 - TL - Agree on Casey being a top town read. See where WF is coming from on Mikal’s behavior, and if WF is town, then it makes sense for there to be no clear scum reads atm. Maybe I’m giving too much credit based off of agreement, and I do think scum WF would acknowledge strong town reads, but the lack of apparent agenda here is a green flag.
- #564 - SL - Decent enough, I guess, but WF tends to have mostly accurate reads as either alignment. Compared to the effort a lot of other players are putting in, I barely see anything new here. I guess I’d just expect more being added to the discussion if WF is town.
- #627 - TL - Ok, this mitigates my concern that WF didn’t have any super impactful reads to move the game forward.
- #660 - TL - More of the WF I’m used to with the analysis, which partially mitigates my concern that he’s acting particularly scummy today.
- #664 - TL - Starting a train like this leans towny, I don’t think WF really needed to do this to avoid being lynched.
- #811 - SL - Given that WyIted probably didn’t use a fake claim, it’s likely that WF hinted at the fake claim for his role and that WyIted was willing to die because the alternative on the chopping block was his partner.
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@Savant
Earth could be scum and lying about using the cop. I think he's telling the truth, but he's not confirmed.
if you think he's telling the truth why even bring this up
You realize I also demanded that WyIted claim, right? And Austin's role is confirmable?I might actually switch out Mikal for Earth, give me a bit to fidget with the probabilities.
I do town read you despite the willingness to lynch earth, but I am not that certain with the other two. And austin himself said he has seen his role on both sides, so idk about it being confirmable meaning anything.
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@Mharman
Where did Pie say he is the cop?
Huh? No EARTH is the cop. or he won the trivia for the 1x that is
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@iamanabanana
if you think he's telling the truth why even bring this up
Because it matters whether or not someone is 100% confirmed.
I do town read you despite the willingness to lynch earth, but I am not that certain with the other two.
Ok, how were we supposed to know that Earth was town yesterday though? Today he looks pretty towny, but this is obvious hindsight bias. When it was Earth vs. WyIted it was a bigger deal, but just having Earth in PoE after he claimed soldier? That's not really scummy.
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@Savant
I literally caught Wylted. It was my arguments that ended up being used to sus his behavior that led to his claim and lynch. Literally one of the first scumread I had was on him. It was one of the few reads I never second guessed at any point lol
Truly one of the reads of all time
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@Savant
I actually think with some town coordination it might not have been a problem (i.e. we don't place official votes until lynch is decided).
Well, now we'll never know how that would have gone... actually sounds like it could have been interesting.
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@iamanabanana
Ok I misread that
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@Savant
Because it matters whether or not someone is 100% confirmed.
We can't know either way so...
Ok, how were we supposed to know that Earth was town yesterday though? Today he looks pretty towny, but this is obvious hindsight bias. When it was Earth vs. WyIted it was a bigger deal, but just having Earth in PoE after he claimed soldier? That's not really scummy.
The case against earth was really bad, so why lynch him in the first place? He had a role that fits the character very well. Only reason he would be scum is if he got the fake claim from lunatic, but other than that there wasn't a good reason for people to sus him, and many were bandwagoning mikal. Austin even admitted he was copying mikal. So I would not want those two anywhere near a list where they could get a prize but thats just me.
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@Savant
Because it matters whether or not someone is 100% confirmed.
We can't know either way so...
Ok, how were we supposed to know that Earth was town yesterday though? Today he looks pretty towny, but this is obvious hindsight bias. When it was Earth vs. WyIted it was a bigger deal, but just having Earth in PoE after he claimed soldier? That's not really scummy.
The case against earth was really bad, so why lynch him in the first place? He had a role that fits the character very well. Only reason he would be scum is if he got the fake claim from lunatic, but other than that there wasn't a good reason for people to sus him, and many were bandwagoning mikal. Austin even admitted he was copying mikal. So I would not want those two anywhere near a list where they could get a prize but thats just me.
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@Mharman
Ok, gonna look back and check. Might have missed it.
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@Mikal
@Moozer325
Game for today: Today's game idea will not be trivia this time, instead the prize for todays winner will be selected by all of the players. All players can choose to submit three names. The person with the most votes at the end of the day phase will be the winner of selected prize.Votes must be listed 1-3, one being the strongest, 3 being the weakest. Votes in the number 1 will count heavier than number three votes for example.1. Playername2. Playername23. Playername 3The mafia team will submit votes together, not separately.
There is a pretty clearly optimal strategy here, that's going to require some coordination.
Basically, we all collectively choose someone to get the prize, and then all have them as our strongest vote. That's obvious.
The important part is that your number 2 and number 3 votes should be scattered among all the other players. This way, scum can't manipulate voting to bump up the second/third choices into 1st.
So for example, your votes should look like this:
1. Town player
2. random guy
3. random guy
The easiest way to coordinate spreading votes for the second/third places in order to avoid them getting too many votes is to go in a circle using the playerlist.
1. Whiteflame2. Mharman3. Mikal4. Austin5. iLikePie56. Moozer7. Banana8. Earth9. Savant
Once we remove the player who we all agree we're going to give our top vote, then you should give your second vote to the player below you and your third vote to the player two places below you. For example, if we agree on Moozer being town, then I would vote:
1. Moozer
2. Pie
3. Banana (because Moozer got removed from the list)
This mathematically makes it impossible for scum to manipulate the vote to a different result than what town agrees to.
Thoughts?
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@Earth
@Savant
@iamanabanana
Tag
Also, I think it's unlikely Wylted was bussed, and if he was bussed, he probably had one vote on him max. The reason is that his role was one-shot and fairly powerful, so scum had a really compelling reason to keep him alive for at least one night to so he could get off his role.
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@AustinL0926
Thats... Thats actually a really clever plan. I will throw you some town cred for that. If we do this, we should make a detailed list telling everyone clearly how to submit their votes according to this method, so that way there isn't any risk of people claiming mistakes or confusion.
Wylted- 6/6- savant, casey, Whiteflame, pie, moozer, earth
Votecount from last DP.
I strongly townread Savant. Moozer is copped town; it's very unlikely scum Earth fakes an inno on his scum partner because it ties them so closely together, and given that 8 v 3 is already fairly scumsided, I think giving a godfather/lawyer is just too much, especially since scum have two anti-informational roles (vote hider and some sort of janitor).
Whiteflame and Pie are light townreads for me, Earth is neutral but I think if he's scum he has no reason to claim the inno on Moozer imo. So one scum maximum among these three, maybe zero.
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@iamanabanana
we should make a detailed list telling everyone clearly how to submit their votes according to this method, so that way there isn't any risk of people claiming mistakes or confusion.
Agree, we can decide that after we figure out who to give the prize to. Right now, I'm thinking Moozer is the best choice.
What's your POE looking like right now?
Pie pops to to ask who won the cop, I answer and he disappeared. Hmm.
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@whiteflame
@Mikal
@AustinL0926
@Savant
@iamanabanana
Did everyone submit a role name last DP?
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@AustinL0926
This mathematically makes it impossible for scum to manipulate the vote to a different result than what town agrees to.Thoughts?
I like this, it gives us some buffer. At first I was assuming the lead of first over second was big enough for this to not be necessary (i.e. 3 vs 2 points), but now I'm realizing I shouldn't have assumed that.
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@ILikePie5
Did everyone submit a role name last DP?
I did.
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@Earth
@Mharman
@Moozer325
^^^
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@ILikePie5
Did everyone submit a role name last DP?
I did. Fucked it up because I didn't think Sensor was a day time role.
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@Lunatic
Game for today: Today's game idea will not be trivia this time, instead the prize for todays winner will be selected by all of the players. All players can choose to submit three names. The person with the most votes at the end of the day phase will be the winner of selected prize.Votes must be listed 1-3, one being the strongest, 3 being the weakest. Votes in the number 1 will count heavier than number three votes for example.1. Playername2. Playername23. Playername 3The mafia team will submit votes together, not separately.Prizes:The winner will be distributed at the end of the day phase.For town: a choice between a 1x watcher/tracker will be givenFor mafia: 1x vanillizer (Can permanently turn someone into a vanilla)Discussion about votes can happen, but no requiring proof of votes IE screenshots etc. If people wanna lie about who they voted for, they can, whether they are town or scum.Good luck all, and have fun!
What happens if there’s a tie?
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@whiteflame
Fucked it up because I didn't think Sensor was a day time role.
Lol, same here.
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@AustinL0926
Agree, we can decide that after we figure out who to give the prize to. Right now, I'm thinking Moozer is the best choice.What's your POE looking like right now?
I guess right now my two strongest reads would be mikal and whiteflame, and I do still town read savant but I didn't like how willing he was to participate on the earth lynch last day phase, so I don't full on scum read him, I am a little hesitant to clear him. I am willing to take you out of the POE for now since this plan doesn't seem like it could benefit scum at all, and I don't see why you would reccomend it as scum. Pie is town, he basically led the wylted lynch. Not sure on mharman, I still town read him behaviorally, but he could be scum too. Moozer and earth are hard town to me.
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@Savant
Is a politician vote a vote thief? If so, in case mafia won, we should all agree on a lynch through non-official voting before anyone submits an official vote.
Yes it is, and I agree that we should not let the game get to LYLO ever
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@iamanabanana
I didn't like how willing he was to participate on the earth lynch last day phase, so I don't full on scum read him, I am a little hesitant to clear him.
You realize I was the first vote on WyIted and a played a significant part in getting him lynched?
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@ILikePie5
What happens if there’s a tie?
In a tie, no one gets it. I need a clear winner.