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Athias

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Total posts: 3,192

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The Death Tax
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@Double_R
If you didn’t find that part of my sentence relevant to the point I was making then why single that part out to respond to it?
Thus, my stating: "so what?" It wasn't just part of your sentence that was irrelevant, it was this statement in its entirety:

I’m an American citizen, which gives me the right to cast a vote for the candidate who best represents my views on what US policy should be.
It hasn't changed my contention: your being an American citizen with the capacity to cast a vote for a candidate who best represents your views neither justifies nor explains the reason you should have a say in someone else's inheritance or Estate.

It’s as if you don’t understand what context is or why it matters. Thoughts and ideas are typically expressed in more than just one word or one sentence.
I appreciate the lesson in semantics.

Do you believe in elections?
No.

If not, do you have any actual ideas on how a society should ensure it’s functionality and prosperity
Yes.

or is “I hate government” all you have to offer?
Never stated, "I hate government." Hate is irrelevant.

The argument is not that government is society
Then you never should have made it.

the argument is that government is the means by which society solves its problems and imposes obligations amongst its citizenry.
Government is a means not the means.

If you disagree with a representative government then again, what is your solution?
Private arbitration and dispute resolution.

Do you believe criminals should be locked up?
No.

If so, who locks them up and under what authority?
I don't believe criminals should be "locked up" so the question of "who" is irrelevant.



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The Death Tax
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@Double_R
There was no point to address, it was literally half a sentence.
If there was no point in addressing it, then there was no point in making said statement in the first place. Exclaiming your American citizenship--and all that which followed--neither justifies nor explains the reason you should have a say in someone else's inheritance or Estate.

The government is a direct reflection of the society you live in.
No it isn't. The government is nothing more than a gang terrorizing those in proximity.

he people in government are the representatives they sent there in their behalf.
Those "representatives" are nothing more than gang members who've risen through farcical electoral pageants.

How are you communicating with me right now?
Through both Transfer Control and Internet Protocol.

Through what device
A computer.

made by who
Dell.

connected to what
the Internet.

powered how
Low-voltage regulated direct current power subjected to Advanced Technology eXtended specification controlled by signals from my computer's motherboard.

and… how are you paying for this?
Labor which I exchange for compensation. In other words, a job which generates income I earn.

Or to ask it slightly differently… do you think you did all this yourself?
Not the point. I have no qualms with "society." And I've not claimed I've done anything by myself. I object to government. Your conflation of the two is nothing more than delusion especially considering the binary political environment in and over which you and others frequently engage and argue.





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@Double_R
If you’d actually make it to the end of the sentence you would have a better idea.
Once again:

I read everything before I respond. My parsing your statements reflects particular points which I intend to address.

If you don’t like being part of a society then move
Non sequitur. My "liking" or disliking my being part of society has nothing to do with it. It isn't "society" I intend to undermine--only the government which subjugates it.

or at the very least stop taking part in an taking advantage of all the perks that come along with it
Taking advantage of which "perks"?

If the group I lived amongst decided to rape me, I wouldn’t be living amongst them
So your response to a violent act is to tell the victim to leave or that they should have left before it happened? I shouldn't be surprised. This so-called government which implements "rules" with which you are so consumed are devoid of any moral economy.

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The Death Tax
Context matters. You’re entire argument about luck was focused entirely on the deceased. We’re not talking about the deceased, we’re talking about the beneficiaries. If you really need me to explain how one would be considered lucky to be handed a fortune they did nothing to earn, we have much bigger problems to address than estate taxes.
My entire argument is not focused on the deceased. Read my arguments again. And don't make excuses. You are claiming that the beneficiaries receiving wealth exemplifies "luck." If there's a problem in explaining this, then it is with you; nothing else.

I’m an American citizen
So what?

which gives me the right to cast a vote
Which makes you an habitual member of a "gang."

for the candidate who best represents my views on what US policy should be.
Your "gang leader."

Is there some other credential I’m supposed to have?
Yes: proprietorship. You are not the proprietor of said wealth? Then you have NO say.

Please tell me what word you would use to describe that person. 
Anything but "lucky" and its synonyms.

I suppose you don’t believe we should have a government then either.
You already know this.

No, it’s not. If you choose to participate in our economic system then you are choosing to follow its rules.
Rules that are enforced with a proverbial gun to one's face.

If you don’t like it move to a deserted island where you can live in isolation and do whatever you want.
All of my neighbors vote and unanimously decide to rape me. Instead of condemning their acts as immoral, I should pick up and leave, abandoning my property--their society; their rules, right?


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The Death Tax
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@Double_R
I explained that starting with the very next sentence.
No, you didn't. This:

We’re not talking about the man who made his fortune, we’re talking about the people who did nothing to help build it but yet will reap all the rewards.
Is not an explanation of "luck."

You don’t have to respond I to every sentence I write, just keep reading.
I read everything before I respond. My parsing your statements reflects particular points which I intend to address.

First off, if you read the thread you would know that my position is the first few million (I said 5 earlier) should not be taxed at all, so no one is saying wealth should be excluded from anyone.
How generous of you. Tell me: who are you to dictate "how much is okay" for someone to enjoy their estate or inheritance before getting taxed on it? Your argument's impetus is entirely rested on the platitude that the beneficiary of an inheritance or estate is "lucky" to receive it--a platitude informed by, as my friend Greyparrot so eloquently put it, as jealousy; hence, an un-taxed transfer of wealth is only legitimate if it's only excluded to just oneself.

Second, what does that even mean? We’re not talking about excluding people from wealth, we’re talking about whether the wealth generated by one individual should flow tax free to their beneficiaries.
Why do YOU OR ANYONE ELSE get a say as to how the wealth generated by one individual transfers to one's beneficiaries?

Do you have an actual position of the estate tax,
Yes: like all taxes, eliminate them.

or like I asked for in the OP, a substantive reason for opposing it?
Taxation is robbery. And let me remind you, you initiated my argument; not the other way around.

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The Death Tax
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@Double_R
Yes, it’s the poster child example of luck.
How is that luck?

We’re not talking about the man who made his fortune, we’re talking about the people who did nothing to help build it but yet will reap all the rewards.
Do you know what that's called? A gift. Taxing inheritances because you believe wealth should be excluded--even from one's family--to just the person who generates it, much less provide an "offering" to everyone else should one decide to share his/her wealth with his/her family, is nothing more than jelly for my PB&J sandwich.

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The Death Tax
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@Greyparrot
Hypergamy suggests luck isn't a factor in the calculation of marriage, at least for a woman.

There are no "equal males" when a woman decides to marry.
All the more reason. If one's mother decided to marry up, then neither the child's birth nor the circumstances in which that child is born is random or lucky.
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The Death Tax
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@Greyparrot
Some of it might be luck, some of it might be merit. But in a system of enforced equality, the tree makes no distinction as Pol Pot smashes a noble's skull against the bloody bark.
With respect to inheritance, is there really any part of it that's luck? Let's say for example, a man has generated enough commerce to amass a sizeable wealth. He decides to get married, whether it be for love or arrangement. This wedded couple decides to have three children. The man intends to bequeath all of his possessions including his wealth to those by whom he is survived, i.e. wife and three children. Is this luck? Or is it merely the product of the man and his wife's decisions? Even the births into that wealth, was that luck, or just another product of decision? Whenever I see a statement along the lines, "lucky to be born into wealth," I start craving peanut butter because of all that jelly. The only time I'd consider it "lucky" is if a wealthy woman unknowingly has a sperm cocktail--consisting of specimen from men in all stations of life--shoved up her womb and letting "chance" decide which sperm fertilizes, and which fertilized egg implants itself.
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The Death Tax
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@ludofl3x
That misses the point of the estate tax in the first place: to prevent the creation of a nobility class.
And why are we preventing the creation of a nobility class?

It's not about jealousy.
Some of it has to be.

It's about an age old conservative value: making something of yourself.
And not making something of one's self means they deserved to get robbed?

Instead of just being lucky to be born into circumstance.
You're sounding really jelly. What makes you think it's luck?

And the system I'm proposing doesn't even fully prevent that, it just sets a cap on the amount of capital you can bequeath, providing FURTHER advantage to people who are already advantaged (from having grown up with vast wealth, they'd have gone to better schools, etc.).
You want some peanut butter with that jelly?

I'm just demonstrating what you can do with their money once they're gone. 
And why is up to you or anyone else to determine what can be done with one's money when prior to that one's death, they've explicitly stated their intentions with it?
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The Death Tax
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@Greyparrot
Instead of having this anarchic system, imagine a state elected board where their only job is to do roads.
I resent that. Government incompetence should never be equated to anarchy.
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The Death Tax
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@Greyparrot
Government doesn't actually "do" anything. It's a middleman that pays for services. The government isn't the only way to fund things. I've seen much better road service funding from online "adopt a pothole" programs.

The idea that nothing gets done without a bloated aristocrat in a government office needs to go by the wayside like the donkey and the cart.
Well put.
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The Death Tax
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@ludofl3x
You understand the tax is not for ME personally to use the money, right?
How would its not being subject to your personal use modify, diminish, or discredit Greyparrot's statement?

Calling it the 'jealousy tax' or making it like I am pro 'stealing someone's money' is a misrepresentation, it implies that you give people a cut of a person's estate to use at their own discretion, like I'm using it to allay my envy of their yacht or whatever.
Does one's reasons really matter in the delineation of envy?

In reality, what I'm for is taking some portion of what we can call VAST wealth (not 1M dollars, that's not vast wealth, 1B dollars is vast wealth), and having the government use it to do things like fix roads, build schools, etc.
Note your language: you're for "taking"; not "asking" or "requesting" because this would acknowledge the other party's capacity to deny you.

Building a school has nothing to do with jealousy.
Taking the money of another because you think a school deserves that money more might constitute jealousy.

The concept is that their family has already benefited from the life of vast wealth AND have been bequeathed vast wealth as a result
The extent to which any individual benefits from his or her wealth is the concern of no one else but that individual. Who are you to inform on the benefits one has gained from his/her property, much less suggest a division in how much that person is allowed to benefit from his/her property?

this is INCOME and should be subject to tax too
Why?

the community at large now benefits from the success that the individual and their family enjoyed, presumably FROM the community.
And they're somehow owed a tax? They somehow have a stake in someone else's wealth? Let me ask: teachers can be said to be instrumental in devices and tools an individual learns to be successful in the corporate aspect of the market. Do you pay every single teacher you've ever had some form of due for everything they've taught you? What about people who've given you advice, do you pay them as well? What about restaurateurs who fed you when mom didn't want to or couldn't cook dinner on many evenings? If the people with whom one interacts even had a marginal role in one's success, where does it stop?

It's not jealousy, it's altruism and it's FOR EVERYONE
Even Robin Hood was jealous.

And again it doesn't have to be schools or hospitals or whatever else conservatives apparently hate, especially if the person's will endows a fund for abuse victims, builds cost free homes for disaster victims... Not so I can buy a playstation. 
So you should get to decide the stipulations by which a free individual bequeaths his/her possessions upon his/her death? Sounds pretty jelly to me.
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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
Do you need an audience for that ?
No.

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The Death Tax
These proposals essentially reduce to "I want their money, and the government should help justify and enforce my stealing it."
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Thug Culture.
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@Greyparrot
Let's try to have a respectful discussion about this problem in America.
Please delineate "thug culture" and the problem it creates in America.
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Is college worth the cost--yes and no
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@thett3
Nice thread. A friend of mine--a young guy--a few years back was attending university, and his prospects were as good as anyone else's--perhaps better. He graduated high school as his class's valedictorian; he had academic awards out the wazoo. However, after a year and a half, he dropped out. It wasn't because he couldn't handle the course work, or that he missed his family (he was 35 minutes away from them.) He was "too smart" for the curriculum. He wasn't being challenged by it. It also didn't help that at the time, there was an overt agenda to politicize college curriculum, and he could see right through it. The death knell of his University participation came when he took an Art History course, whose professor was clearly pushing a feminist agenda. He had enough, and decided to stop attending university. And that was truly unfortunate because all he ever wanted to do was to attain as much knowledge as he could.

College truly isn't for everyone, even if one is/was a good student. In my opinion, it's better to save the money and learn a trade. Academia has become such a cesspool of warring political factions, that it's hilarious. Of course that assessment too is contingent on one's major.
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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
What do you personally value ?
Self-expression.

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Minimum wage
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@secularmerlin
That is in fact my point. Assuming no business would knowingly employ unnecessary workers (and you have given me no reason to believe otherwise) there is no one else to eliminate. A minimum wage increase is therefore immaterial to who is necessarily employed. 
Except "necessity" is not determined by your concept unnecessary. It's determined by a worker's marginal productivity. So yes, an increase in a minimum wage is material because increases makes it illegal to employ those whose marginal productivity doesn't generate the minimum wage.

I maintain that if a business cannot afford to pay their workforce a living wage then they cannot afford to be in business.
The minimum-wage is NOT a "living wage." It's a politically contrived interference in the labor market.

If the only thing keeping you in business is that you get to exploit people more then you do not have my sympathy. 
Your sympathy is irrelevant.

Nonsense. You just pointed out the cronyism that makes our current state a capitalist state. Also without the implicit threat of state enforced violence no one would acknowledge the right of corperations to own the means of production at the expense of their own starvation. Capitalism cannot exist without the state.
It matters neither what you state, nor how you feel: a State CANNOT be Capitalistic. Capitalism is the dissemination of goods and services by private individuals who do not function as extensions of the government or State. This is tautologically true, your Marxist education notwithstanding. My reference to cronyism is in light of state-sanction corporations, not Corporations in general. Corporation =/= Capitalism.

It could but under our current capitalist state resources are used to coerce the cooperation of the proletariat.
Our current State is not Capitalist; our current State is quasi-communist.

Resources are never voluntarily given under capitalism.
This isn't even a little bit true.

Giving anything away voluntarily is anathema to capitalism. Things are only given in exchange for payment. 
Voluntary =/= free. Voluntary is not mutually exclusive from paid exchange.
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Minimum wage
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@secularmerlin
All businesses are already on the lookout for any possible ways of trimming the fat. No buisness purposefully employs workers that are not essential for a company to function. It can therefore be assumed that all businesses have already eliminated any unnecessary workers they know of and would promptly eliminate a y that they discovered were unnecessary.
The problem with this argument, secularmerlin, is that according to your rationale, business wouldn't have even employed workers that were unnecessary. So who would they eliminate? And how would they "discover" they were unnecessary?

This is a truism regardless of the minimum wage a d therefore any argument to the contrary doesn't hold water.
No, it's not.

Every business has expences.if your profit doesn't exceed your expenses then in the capitalist model you should fail.
No, in a Capitalist model, one's profits should be 0, i.e. "perfect competition."

Paying for labor is one of the primary expenses. If you cannot afford to pay your workforce a minimum wage perhaps you shouldn't be in business.
Nonsense. This has nothing to do with the byproduct of minimum-wage. This is just your shoehorning in an unsubstantiated necessity of the minimum wage.

You just described a capitalist state. This is the best case scenario for capitalism. Capitalism cannot be supported without the state's support.
There can never a be Capitalist State. Capitalism by definition excludes the State.

How else would they secure the means of production besides the threat of police violence?
Karl Marx said the same thing, and it hasn't "held any water." The procurement of resources can be secured by voluntary agreement.


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3+3=God?
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@FLRW
This is not true. Mathematics is used in Physical Science to calculate the measurements of objects and their characteristics, as well as to show the relationship between different functions and properties. 
Yes, it is true. ALL PHYSICAL LAWS must necessarily be mathematically proven. The demonstration of these relationships between functions and properties, as you put it, defines physical law.


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3+3=God?
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@Sum1hugme
2.5 doesn't equal 3 if you define half of 1 as 0.5, which you did.
Well put. The fact that "unit" is defined by an inequality with parameters, "0 < n ≤ 1," means that even 0.00001 + 0.00001 + 0.00001 = 3.

If the data is going to be manipulated, then it must be manipulated with logical consistency. Not just random equivalences between units of measure and integers.

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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
It's not the ONLY measure.

It's more of a baseline.
Then "iff" cannot be used.

Please suggest a counter-proposal (if you have one).
I'd first like to understand the measure you proposed better. Why is intrinsic value based one's suffering being mitigated by the participation of others?


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When people want to take down confederate statues, it sounds a lot like this
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@TheUnderdog
Good point; however separation of church and state prohibits legal policy from being made on religious grounds.  Otherwise we would have to ban abortion and gay sex and punish them as they are to be in the bible
Yes, but because legal policy is dependent on referendums decided by majoritarian consensus, the inclinations of the area's/region's voter base hold weight especially for politicians, who naturally lack convictions of their own.

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Minimum wage
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@secularmerlin
It is silly to think that employers would employ fewer workers if minimum wage increases.
No, it's not. The minimum wage necessarily creates unemployment.

There is already no incentive to have more workers than absolutely necessary.
Which is determined by the firm which employs, not secularmerlin.

If you are worried about people with redundant jobs will become unemployed then you need not worry about minimum wage as this has already happened and continues to happen. 
All the more reason the minimum wage may lead to disemployment because the minimum wage makes it more expensive to hire people to do redundant jobs.

It is silly to say that inflation will take away everyone's buying power if we raise minimum wage since inflation continues despite the stagnation of minimum wage. If you are worried about inflation then you need not worry about minimum wage as this has already happened and continues to happen. 
Much of inflation has to do with a nation's monetary policy. While the minimum wage can increase inflation, the lion's share is due to printing money.

It is silly to say that small businesses will be unable to compete if we raise minimum wage
No it's not. An increase in the minimum wage affects small businesses the most because they hire the most low-skilled/unskilled labor.

since capitalism already tends towards monopolies.
No it doesn't.

If you are worried that most of the world's wealth will he concentrated into the hands of just a few companies giving them an unfair advantage over small businesses then you need not worry about minimum wage as this has already happened and continues to happen. 
Yes, but not because of Capitalism. It's in part a manifestation of the partnership between crony corporations and the State.


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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
18 million dollars per missile launch

we could build at least 18 homes for that price
You won't get much argument from me, here. Wasting money is the hallmark of government.

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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
No.

You are never "obligated".

(IFF) you can do something to mitigate human suffering (AND) you decide instead to buy yourself a private plane (THEN) you are denying the INTRINSIC VALUE of other humans
This would suggest that "a human's intrinsic value is only intrinsic value IFF his/her suffering warrants the participation of another in its mitigation." Why is intrinsic value bound by this standard?

I'm not suggesting that humans are intrinsically valuable.

I'm not suggesting that humans are NOT intrinsically valuable.
What you talkin' about, Willis?
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3+3=God?
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@zedvictor4
What do atheists believe?
God does not exist.

And in real terms, what is a materialist?
One who proposes that reality is material.

I would suggest that we all premise our arguments upon our intellect.....Variously acquired stored and modified data.
Okay.

How do you think that you are different.
Logical consistency.

And relative to the issue of 3....I have easily demonstrated that data manipulation can make  2.5 = 3.
No you didn't. Your demonstration is essentially akin to 12 dozen = 12.

What is the premise for this deduction?
Nonsense.

Is this an atheistic or materialistic response?
Neither.

Am I being hypocritical?
The physical sciences are fundamentally premised on mathematics, which is immaterial and abstract. So a materialist, or an atheist who premise their arguments with materialist philosophy would essentially, tacitly, and in cognitive dissonance concede that reality is fundamentally based on the immaterial. That's the hypocrisy.

Perhaps I am being externally manipulated by Satan.
No, just internally.







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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@FLRW
Your conclusion from these statistics are based on a post hoc fallacy.  You're claiming an efficacy of vaccination simply by counting after the fact. In December of 2020, 336,802 were claimed to have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. Give or take, there are about 332,000,000 people in the United States. If we subtract the 2.8 million who were vaccinated at that point, then we'd have, give or take, 329,200,000. Now if we divide this number by the number of deaths in December of 2020, and multiply it by 100, then that is 0.102% of the unvaccinated who have succumbed to this virus. If we considered the amount of people who had remained hospitalized at that point, assuming they weren't vaccinated, then it would .0360% of the unvaccinated were hospitalized.
I based my comment on your above comment. My point is if the vaccine saves mores lives than it takes, it is worth it.
I thought so. This is the reason I suggest one should read my entire set of statements rather than isolating an argument as if it were made in a vacuum. I also stated this:

I was referencing a previous statement of mine to DoubleR in response to your point about the hospitalization and death statistics. Even if we were to place significance on the total number infected and the total deaths, it would still render a 98.4% "survival rate." I put survival rate in quotes because it's ecological and fallacious. The point I'm making is not to give validity to these statistics; it's to demonstrate that even if we are to indulge these fallacious reasons, it would still not favor vaccination.

Because as an individual, one's chances of surviving or succumbing will always be 50/50. One either survives or dies. So I can no more say that as an unvaccinated individual, I have a "99% chance" of survival, than you can say that as an unvaccinated indivdual, I have a "XXX% chance" of dying. That will depend on one and one's condition.
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Where do you get your information from?
“Think for yourself” is a theme I’ve come across quite a bit lately, the implication of course being that you are not doing so but rather just regurgitating what other sources have told you.
Yes, it's been my experience that most of the members here--at least the ones I've come across--do this.

This always amuses me. Take Covid for example. Is anyone on this site a doctor or scientist?
Irrelevant. The information is either true or not, source notwithstanding.

I’m betting not, I’m betting instead that the overwhelming majority of us get our information from sources we trust telling us how to interpret the data, or at the very least reports that someone else we trust performed.
You should not trust another on "how to interpret the data." You should already know/have learned how to interpret the data. And if don't/haven't, then all you are doing is regurgitating.

In fact nearly everything we think we know, especially when it comes to politics is gained this way. It’s almost entirely about who we trust.
This is not an endorsement of politics.

There’s little way around that.
Regurgitation.

1. Where do you get your information from? What news channels are you watching, what publications are you reading, etc.?
I read: books, newspapers, journals, the internets, etc. You name it. I rarely watch the news--too much pageantry for my tastes. On occasion, I may watch ABC News.

2. How do you go about vetting the information you consume?
Logic.

3. How exactly do you identify when you think someone else is not “thinking for themselves”?
Their arguments exhibit repetition rather than rationalization.

And BTW, if you haven’t told us where you get your information from please do not jump in here and criticize anyone else. You have no standing to do so.
Regurgitation.

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3+3=God?
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@TheDredPriateRoberts
Saw an interesting video.  Is this "3" the number three?  No it's not, it's a representation of the number three as is III etc, so what and where is the number 3?  Which of our senses can we identify the number three with?
Well put. This demonstrates the hypocrisy of materialists and atheists who premise their beliefs and arguments on materialism.

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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@zedvictor4
Sorry to interject
Don't be sorry about something you had no intention of not doing.

But It would seem a fair assumption to make.
The question isn't whether it was "fair." The question focuses on the reason it was made in the first place.

Sugar cube V needle though.....Just reinforces some previous assumptions of my own.
Your assumption hasn't been reinforced because your assumption is lazy. Your incapacity to argue the subject on the merits of our respective positions' logical consistency has left you in some dire strait where you now intend to qualify my position by contriving some character defect on my part--i.e. an allegation of trypanophobia, a condition not only from which I already informed you I do not suffer, but also bears no relevance to the subject at hand.

Only joking?
Are you asking me if you're "only joking?" Only you'd know that.
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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@FLRW
The USA population in 1952 was 156.369.000. The ratio of polio cases to population was .00037. So I assume you think that there was no need for the polio vaccine?
Why would you assume I think that?


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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@ebuc
I was reading through, and that comment stood out to me, cause I had just listen to Fauci snippet addressing what your snippet seemingly was saying.
All of my statements. I don't provide isolated arguments.

They were opposites and I trust Fauci more than I trust your oppinion.
First, my argument with respect to the effect over which whiteflame and I debate has not imputed "opinion." Second, whether you "trust me" is not the subject of this discussion. And frankly, I couldn't be concerned less.

You may even have a long list of web sites that support your conclusion, that,
Not a list of websites; only logic.

Not according to Fauci. 
So?

Who do I trust more.  Obviously it is Fauci over you and my guess any web  sites you have to offer.
Once again, not a concern of this discussion.



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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@whiteflame
My interpretation, flawed though it has been at times, of your words here is that you accept that many studies of vaccines have produced results you would say are logically/scientifically sound, i.e. that there are definitive conclusions you could make regarding their results.
No, my statement was in reference to your setting the bar to "perfect" as opposed to logically/scientifically sound. The studies I accept operate under the standards of the latter, not the former.

I'm not sure if that encompasses what you could say about the effectiveness of those vaccines in a broad population, and perhaps your argument is that those kinds of broader claims are impossible to support in a logical/scientific manner. However, as your argument focuses on claims that vaccines prevent death, and you have also made the following statement:

But my argument isn't that vaccines don't work; my argument is that vaccines which claim to "prevent death" cannot be proven to serve this effect because there's a necessary lack of observational data.
I interpret that as an acknowledgement that vaccines do "work" in some measurable way that can be said to apply to a broad population. Again, I could be misinterpreting, but if your argument is that only the conclusions regarding prevention of death are insufficiently supported, then what conclusions about vaccines do you acknowledge as supported by the available evidence? In essence, I'd like to know what you would argue is proven by sufficient observational data with regards to vaccines.

I might be phrasing this poorly, but I hope you'll be able to determine my meaning.
To the contrary. Because "necessary immune response" can't or has yet to be quantified, then the effect a vaccine is claimed to serve cannot or has yet to be measured. So if I were to harken back to my alarm system analogy, it would be like stating "without an alarm system you're XX% more likely to die from a home invasion." I'm certain that there a statistics that reflect the analysis of home break-ins. But in order to verify this claim, we must first set a control. That is, your home with the alarm system, and your home without an alarm system. Now if this claim of XX% more likely comes from exogenous empirical data--i.e. observations not from the subject--then any conclusions would necessarily impute an ecological inference fallacy:

Google Search:
An ecological fallacy is a formal fallacy in the interpretation of statistical data that occurs when inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inferences about the group to which those individuals belong.
Now let's for argument's sake suppose that you did get an alarm system. And someone then claimed, "the reason you haven't died in a home-invasion after getting the alarm system is because of the alarm system." This claim would necessarily impute a post hoc fallacy:

Google Search:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is an informal fallacy that states: "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X." It is often shortened simply to post hoc fallacy.
That is, because you've continued to survive (Event Y) home invasions or avoid the prospect of home invasions after getting an alarm system (Event X,) you've survived (Event Y) because of the alarm system (Event X.) This is the reason I conceded to you earlier on the point about the elderly patients in the nursing home dying immediately after their vaccine.

I cannot argue that vaccines don't work because then that would necessarily impute an argument from ignorance. That is, I cannot validate an argument that vaccines don't work because you can't prove that they do work. My argument is and has always been that the conclusions drawn from the statistics concerning the COVID-19 vaccine, especially with respect to mortality rates, are logically/scientifically inconsistent/unsound. It doesn't matter how meticulous or intuitive these statistics may be, logic is logic; science is science. And if one should claim that COVID-19 vaccine prevents COVID-19 death, then I will always ask for a logical/scientific substantiation of this claim with the pertinent controls.



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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@ebuc
This sounds nutty to me...

...Mind over matter is one thing but ego over rational, logical common sense, based on evidence,  is another
Read through my statements--a tall task, I know--and not just respond to a single snippet after joining the discussion late. I explain the reasons for my statements.

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Dave Chappelle and His Offensive Comedy
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@cristo71
Close, but not quite. Satirical, yes, but it’s not *really* about Chappelle’s feelings about Trump supporters. There’s an extra layer of satire there. I even attached a video to supply context. 
I see. I understand.

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A Moral Question Involving Homicide
Lets imagine for purposes of edification there is a married couple. Person 1 in the married couple is quite unhappy with Person 2. So much so that Person 1 hires(pays) Person 3 to kill Person 2. 

Person 3 kills person 2. This plot is uncovered by Law Enforcement and both are arrested. 


Should Person 1 or 3 be charged with homicide[1], or both? Why?
Person 3. Person 3 killed person 2. Therefore, person 3 is responsible for person 2's murder.

Should Person 1 or 3 receive the more severe punishment? Should their punishment be equal? Why? 
Person 1 shouldn't be punished; Person 3 should be obliged to those most damaged by Person 2's loss, which ironically and maybe a twist of fate include Person 1.

What critiques do you have, if any, with how homicide, and its variations, is classified and prosecuted?(in the US) Why?
The manner by which homicide is prosecuted is directly linked to the production of prison labor, especially with its considerations of variations like negligence, RICO conspiracy, and murder for hire. The person who murders is directly responsible unless placed under duress.



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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
I suppose where I'm having the most trouble with your argument overall is that I can't understand what standard you would use to actually make a determination that anything works if you cannot use data obtained after the fact to make those determinations. What you're effectively arguing here, as far as I can tell, is that it's impossible to make these conclusions because it's functionally impossible to meet the level of stringency required to make them. Assuming that's the case, I sincerely question how we can make any such conclusions about any preventative measure. After all, the only means we have to evaluate the degree to which a population is afforded protection from an infection is, necessarily, after the fact. We can provide all the data to support what the vaccine actually does, establish how that helps immune responses, and determine that that likely contributes to declines in infections, hospitalizations and death tolls among that population, as correlates with the data. If your argument is that that's not enough to make these conclusions, then functionally, nothing is,
This means simply that the conclusions must be retooled to reflect the data, not that the data has to be made to look as though it supports a conclusion which can't be proven. If a conclusion can't be made (with sound premises) then it can't be made--its being the only means notwithstanding.

and I'm honestly not sure why you buy into vaccines at all if this is really your perspective.
Personally, I don't. I'm a proponent of practicing good hygiene as one's primary measure of counteracting the contraction of infection. But my argument isn't that vaccines don't work; my argument is that vaccines which claim to "prevent death" cannot be proven to serve this effect because there's a necessary lack of observational data.

Again, I disagree.
Once again, it isn't a matter of agreement. I'm not suggesting that "my method is 'better' than yours." I'm delineating the necessary benchmarks which produce a logically consistent and sound conclusion.

I think there are sufficient controls to establish that conclusion. You're effectively saying that there are other factors that could explain why death tolls are reduced among the vaccinated population, and if so, I'd honestly like to know what those are.
No, I have not affirmed such an argument.

I also don't see why observation of both a subject's death and survival is required for a study to be sufficiently controlled because, if it is, then no scientific study that assesses survival (or anything, really - you cannot simultaneously view a person in two states at the same time, including "sick" and "healthy") is sufficiently controlled.
Not necessarily. There are anatomical/physiological/structural certainties about the human body. It just so happens with vaccines, the effects are not certain. And this should spur skepticism not apologism.

Every study is fallacious because it cannot meet the perfect standard demanded for internal controls. I'd respond to your "How?" that you gave prior to this, but if this is the standard for controls, then nothing I could say would meet it because no controls ever could.
Not "perfect;" just logically/scientifically sound. (And I wouldn't go as far as to state "Every Study." Only the ones which claim vaccines prevent death.)

I like how you turned pandemic into an adjective
I did no such thing. "Pandemicity" is akin to "epidemicity."

but that's not what makes a pandemic. A pandemic doesn't and shouldn't presume that a majority of the world population has been exposed to the virus at some point. It literally means that it occurs over an area that encompasses multiple countries and affects some significant subset of the populations therein. Significant amounts do not necessitate majorities. The fact that the virus had lots of time to spread before vaccination started doesn't lend credence to your claim, either. All it does is tell me that the virus infected a lot of people. I'll certainly grant you that the numbers of infected that we know about is probably quite a bit smaller than the real number of infected, but I don't grant that the actual number is greater than 50% of the population. That kind of claim requires support.
Necessary is moot, since the quantification is qualified as "significant." And you're not in a position to grant anything since your conjecture is no less assumptive than mine. But even if I were for argument's sake to indulge your point in that exposure to this virus has been at 50% or less, that would still mean that at least half the population has avoided exposure to this virus for almost two years. How would that bolster the advantage of taking a vaccine?

You say "necessary", and I agree that it hasn't been demonstrated to be necessary to add this specific immune response to the natural antibodies generated by many in order to see effectiveness.
So the vaccine ceteris paribus is not necessary.

I would say that it has been demonstrated to be beneficial, and I would disagree with the statement that it's solely a plausible benefit. Even if we ignore basic viral mutation as a means of evolution and the demonstrated (yes, this has been tested) importance of the mechanisms inherent to the structure of the spike protein, it's not at all controversial to say that a more rapid adaptive immune response to the virus is beneficial in viral clearance, regardless of the virus. At worst, this immune response is net neutral for someone who has already generated their own antibodies.
All of which is based on a nebulous concept of necessary immune strength. It would be like someone invading my home, and your likening the vaccine to an alarm system as opposed to my defending my home personally (and I'm being very generous toward the effects of vaccination with this analogy.)


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When people want to take down confederate statues, it sounds a lot like this
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@TheUnderdog
The irony of this subject is that most of the confederate statues are located in the Bible belt. Christian principles would dictate that these statues be taken down anyway because it's against God's directive against graven images. Funny enough, there are also pagan statues in the Bible belt. I wonder why that is?
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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@whiteflame
I'm not going to get into semantics with you. Suffice it to say that if you don't like that style of presenting an argument as a means to allow the other person to clarify, then so be it, but it's how I tend to handle things I will likely continue to do the same. Carefully choosing my verbiage as a means of placing myself as the source of misinterpretation is worth a shot, but I'm not always going to be so careful in selecting my words, and I think it's still far better to suggest that a plausible misunderstanding is occurring than to state another person's position with certainty.
I'm not really trying to argue semantics; I'm essentially stating, "own what you say" as opposed to projecting the misinterpretation/misstatement on to the other person. But fair enough: I am in no position to dictate your verbiage.

The rest of this just seems like it's revisiting the same points we've now talked about at length. I don't agree that it's non-scientific or fallacious in every instance to look at correlative data, especially on a very large scale, and make conclusions that infer plausible causation, especially when you can actually test for far more specific elements of said correlation (e.g. the development of antibodies and resultant activation of immune response when someone gets the virus). I really don't understand the argument that these studies cannot in any way inform how you are likely to respond to the vaccine or to the virus, but clearly, that's an area where we just won't agree.
It isn't a matter of whether we "agree." I've stated to you the reasons these conclusions are fallacious, which meet the description of these referenced fallacies. I'm not stating mere opinion. Feel free to verify/falsify whether my statements coincide with these descriptions. And I understand well everything you're stating. I am saying to you that this is not enough to render these prevailing conclusions--conclusions which ought to be based on stringent scientific and/logical standards.

You can control for how an individual who has and hasn't been vaccinated would respond to the virus, even if you cannot control for every element of their behavior and prior immune development.
How?

If we're looking at it from that perspective, I would say that it's effectively impossible to control for every variable in any experiment once you get a sufficient number of people to make statistical inferences, which would mean that every medical study is similarly flawed.
But my contention isn't about controlling for variables. My contention is against the conclusion that "covid vaccine prevents covid death" has been controlled, which necessitates the observation of both a subject's death and survival. That is what's effectively impossible.

The question presumes that a majority of the population has been directly exposed to the virus, i.e. has been infected in some way, shape or form. If it doesn't presume that, then presuming that there is no positive effect of vaccination doesn't make sense to me, because while a majority of the population may not have been exposed to the virus, a majority has been exposed to the vaccine. But if we do presume that a majority of the population has been exposed to the virus (I'd like to see evidence of that), I'd say that the big difference is in the means by which that defense is mounted.
The pandemicity of this virus, and its classification as such, presumes that a majority of the population has been exposed to this virus, symptomatic or asymptomatic notwithstanding. And let's remember that vaccination started late last year, which would mean that the virus has had a year to likely spread (you stated that being unvaccinated made it more likely to spread quicker.)

Naturally-generated antibodies can target any number of sites from the virus, and many of those sites can mutate without substantially negative effects for the virus. Vaccine-generated antibodies target a specific protein that is an essential virulence factor, changes to which can substantially impede the virus. Even for someone with effective natural antibodies, there is no harm in generating a separate set and a plausible benefit in having multiple modes to recruit immune responses.
This is has been your best argument thus far. With that said, having a separate set of modes to recruit immune responses has not been substantiated as necessary, the plausible benefit of which cannot be gauged until it has been controlled.
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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
Why do I feel like I've heard this song in a Rocky movie?

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On the scale of a single family.
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@3RU7AL
Capitalism is naked profit motive.
The profit motive is present in Capitalism, but why does this prevent charity?

Please explain.
In communism, the dissemination of goods and services is regulated by the State. It is political manifestation of socialism.

Choosing to "ignore" human suffering WHEN you can do SOMETHING to mitigate that suffering = denying that person's intrinsic value.
So this "intrinsic value" necessarily obligates me to "do something" as it concerns another's suffering, whether I'm a willful participant or not?

LOVE = COMMUNISM

SHARING RESOURCES AND OR SELF-SACRIFICE WITHOUT CONCERN FOR REWARD
Define love; define communism.

FAITH IN CREDIBLE THREAT
Whose faith?
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Dave Chappelle and His Offensive Comedy
Dave Chapelle is a brilliant comedian whom I've watched for several years (and personally my favorite comedian.) There are times I'm put off by his propagation of left-wing bullshit, but I've always respected his, as well as some other comedians', nihilism toward etiquette and propriety. As far as cristo's clearly sarcastic attempt to lampoon the alleged claims of victimization by Trump supporters, I've seen the special, and he barely makes mention of them, at least not enough in my opinion to start a thread about it. But to each his own.
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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@whiteflame
I include "appear" specifically for this purpose, since I recognized that I could be misstating your position and invited you to correct me. I'm not going to straw man you just because it's convenient to make a point. And, again, I think the difference here is between supporting a conclusion and proving said conclusion. You're right that the existing data is not definitive proof, but not providing complete evidence of causality does not mean that the evidence in no way supports their conclusions.
If one is misstating the position of another, then one is misstating the position of another. Whether this imputes a strawman is contingent on the conclusions drawn from this misstatement. If clarification at any point is needed, then that's something for which one can simply ask. Using "appear" or "seem" in argument is means to providing a probable misstatement while hedging against one's association with said misstatement. This is the reason it is often put on to the other person, i.e. "you seem to be," "you appear to be saying," etc, as opposed to recognizing oneself as the source of misinterpretation, i.e. "I take it to mean," or "can I assume?" or "I 'seem' to think."  I don't just bring this up with you. For as long as I've been exchanging arguments, I've always made sure to let it be known at some point that I've wagered an intifada against the use of the terms "seem/appear" in argument. Because they're really not arguments at all. Hence, some here have come to know my motto as, "seem is not an argument."

As for whether existing data constitutes definitive proof, and whether they support the prevailing conclusions, depends on the conclusions themselves. If the conclusion is "covid vaccine prevents covid death" then the evidence would not support this. Fallacious reasoning is the only thing that supports that argument.

I believe it was your argument that the research in no way derives conclusions from the health of individuals.
No, it was my argument that research using others a subjects cannot inform on my personal health, i.e. the antibody production of another cannot inform on my antibody production.

Those are individual assessments, and those assessments can be carried forward into new patients to demonstrate the positive effects of the vaccine in those patients. As for saying that looking at the antibodies of one person "cannot inform on my own antibody production", in some sense, you are correct. It can't provide 100% certainty on how your immune system will respond to the vaccine. However, the multitude of studies monitoring antibody production certainly do inform how you're likely to respond.
"Likely" which is based on fallacious reasoning. Once again, these are assumptions. And some of these assumptions may be legitimized post facto, but that is not logically consistent; that is not science.

I think narrowing down the argument to a given "person X" isn't exactly what the general argument has been for increasing vaccination. The argument has been that a broad swath of the population has benefited in these specific ways and imparts greater degrees of protection from the virus to those around them, therefore a larger swath of the population should also be vaccinated to similarly protect themselves and those around them.
But what is the larger swath of the population if not a composite of person X's? And the protection this vaccine allegedly offers has not been controlled; maybe by "academic" standards, but not by the scientific method and/or logical rigor.

I wouldn't call that a fallacious argument, and if it is, then I don't see how we apply any treatment or prevention to any population without engaging in fallacy.
One can engage fallacy by electing to take a vaccine. And concluding "prevention" is contingent on its logical consistency; hence, one cannot substantiate prevention with fallacious reasoning.

Of course. It's not just possible, but highly likely that an unvaccinated individual will mount a sufficient immune response to eliminate the SARS-CoV-2 virus from their system, eventually. It's less likely that said unvaccinated person will mount an immune response as quickly as someone who is vaccinated. That has been tested.
How has this been controlled?

It is therefore more likely that the virus will spread further and cause more harm in an unvaccinated patient than in a vaccinated patient. I'm not arguing that it's the difference between having an immune response and having none, I'm arguing that it's the difference between a weaker, slower immune response (in the unvaccinated) and a stronger, faster immune response (in the vaccinated). The absence of an early antibody-based adaptive immune response in patients who have not seen the virus or vaccine before is a known deficit in patients who have not been vaccinated or infected.
So then what advantage is there to these alleged effects of vaccination after being exposed to this virus for almost two years?

Another instance where I'm not entirely sure what you're asking. If you're asking what evidence would be required for me to buy that this is a lab-engineered strain with inserted genes, then I would expect to see the hallmarks of such genes. From what I've read, those hallmarks are absent. So, in lieu of that and under the assumption that scientists may have added genes without these hallmarks, I would have to see evidence that those scientists planned this out and executed it. Scientists keep lab notebooks and notes on what they do. It's plausible that they could have gotten rid of that evidence as well, in which case I will always find it difficult to accept this as damning. This is hardly the first time that a deadly new version of an existing virus suddenly got into and spread through the human population, and the kinds of changes to a virus that would lead to this exist in nature. I would have reason to be upset with researchers who didn't respect this facet of viral evolution and either chose to actively modify a virus to become more dangerous or, as I would consider more likely, simply did basic experiments with it in their lab and didn't take adequate precautions to prevent its escape from the facility. 
Okay.



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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
I can't fathom how that could be done. If it was possible, it would be common practice in the laboratory where it is a lot more laborious to make permanent changes to the genome or to regularly make short-term functional changes.
So, it's your position that it can't be done?

mRNA messages are, by their very nature, built to be used and discarded. You would have to change how loose, single-stranded RNA functions within a cell to achieve long-term functional changes.
Hence, my asking, "can they be manipulated" to function beyond their given/understood nature? I'm not asking if it's difficult; I'm asking if it can be done.


Proven =/= substantiated. A strong correlation among a very large population over a long period of time provides substantiation.
In academia perhaps, but not as it concerns either logic or the empirically verifiable.

It's not definitive proof, but claiming there is no substantiation for a claim backed up by massive amounts of correlative data (as well as a great deal of causational investigation into how the vaccine provides protection from the worst that COVID-19 has to offer)
It's correlative data and causal investigations which are based on fallacious reasoning.

seems absurd to me, especially when you aren't offering any alternate causality.
It isn't my burden to offer an alternate causality since I'm neither affirming nor negating that which the vaccine does, at least with respect to its function in inoculating those from COVID-19 virus. My argument is that the vaccine cannot be proven to do as it's been described because in order to substantiate this proof, one would have to control for both the consequences of contraction and inoculation within the same sample. Anything short of that is assumption premised with fallacious reasoning.

I disagree. Vaccination imparts maximum effectiveness when a population reaches herd immunity. That doesn't mean that vaccination requires herd immunity to be at all effective.
No more than good hygiene needs "everyone to do it" to be at all effective, especially since it's the primary countermeasure to contracting infection. Using my experience as anecdotal evidence, I play contact sports with those whose vaccination status I don't know; I've been in close contact with those who contracted the virus, some of whom contracted the virus three times, even while being vaccinated. Outside of my seasonal allergies, there hasn't been a cough or sneeze from me, much less a fever since this pandemic started. And I attribute this to my practice of good hygiene (and one more thing I'll discuss below) which I've been practicing since I was a mere boy reading his mother's books on Pathology (she's a physician.)

I'm not sure I understand the follow-up question.
My question is based on the concept you put forth that everyone needs to practice good hygiene in order for it to be effective, and the concept of herd immunity. Herd immunity requires 70% inoculation to be maximally effective, and good hygiene, you allege requires practice within 100%  of the populace. What is the significance in this 30% differential?


I really don't understand how noting a survival rate among people who have been infected is fallacious, especially since your argument regarding how the ecological fallacy works is applying it to subsequent populations and we're talking about the actual population of infected. Why is this fallacious?

Because as an individual, one's chances of surviving or succumbing will always be 50/50. One either survives or dies. So I can no more say that as an unvaccinated individual, I have a "99% chance" of survival, than you can say that as an unvaccinated indivdual, I have a "XXX% chance" of dying. That will depend on one and one's condition.

As for the latter statement, again, that seems like a statement with regards to the death rate from infections not being high enough to justify vaccination, which implies that there is some threshold at which such a number would be sufficient to favor vaccination. I'm not sure what that number is, and any choice seems arbitrary.
Whenever we reference quantitative methodology, we're going to compare numbers. It is your argument that the unvaccinated are somehow "worse off" or that the vaccinated are somehow "better off" based on mortality and hospitalization rates, correct? It does not merely suffice to reference these numbers; it's extremely important how these numbers are interpreted--especially if the interpretation is based on fallacious reasoning. I agree that any numbers chosen will essentially be arbitrary, but the same could be said for its converse--i.e. any mortality rate necessitating the implementation of coerced vaccination.

Again, not really sure I'm understanding your point. Traces of the mRNA and translated spike protein are absent from the body after a few days. Patients were monitored for weeks and months and that remained the case. If there is something that isn't limited to a narrow window of time that is worth considering, please, elaborate.
My contention is, are "weeks and months" sufficient in establishing a "long-term" scope?

This doesn't seem to be responsive to the point you're addressing, since the point of that argument was addressing the likelihood of such long-term side effects rather than excluding any possibility of their existence. It's possible that long-term side effects could occur. It's implausible that they would based on the established evidence.
It's implausible that they would based on the established evidence because said evidence's scope is limited to the allotted time thus far. It's been barely more than a year since these trials started.
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Race Realism is not an attack on dignity
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@TheMorningsStar
So often I find people criticize Race Realism by trying to tie it as inherently racist in nature,
It is inherently racist. What else would you call discriminating information or rendering conclusions on the basis of so-called "race"?

When science discusses that men are, on average, more aggressive than women, or women are, on average, more empathetic than men it is not seen as inherently sexist,
Science does not discuss that; neither does logic.

nor is it seen as justification for sexism.
First, you have to establish: who are the ones "seeing"?

It is understood that just because men and women are different in some aspects that it doesn't change the moral value of the individual, the dignity of the sexes is not in threat.
Individuals are different in some aspects. Outside of the roles in reproduction and how this expresses itself physically, what else remains in the realm of "Science"?

However, when people try to talk about how people of different races might be, on average, different due, in part, to nature it is seen as inherently racist, an attack on the moral value of the individual, etc.
Once again, who are the ones "seeing"? What is this "nature"?

it is the idea that some of the difference in outcomes between races stems from real qualities about nature. Look at the world's best sprinters, for example. Regardless of the culture they are raised in (aka, a variety of nurture elements) there is a tendency for one particular race to be "over-represented" among these world class sprinters.
So your argument as it concerns this nature is that so-called "blacks" are over-represented in these international pageants where running is involved? I've seen an individual so-called "white" outrun an individual so-called "black." What is your point?

Why does this happen? If Race Realism is true it does not follow that any race is morally of greater importance, it just means that there are differences. It doesn't justify racism, just like differences between men and women doesn't justify sexism.
Because one is grouping people based on nothing more than a government/corporate designation and hiding behind the veil of academia to draw fallacious conclusions using statistics one does not know how to interpret.

Yet that is consistently brought up by many who oppose the idea of Race Realism.
Who?

Race Realism is essentially metaphysical realism applied to race, and that there are different races. The idea that 'race is a social construct' almost always stems from a sort of metaphysical anti-realism.
Metaphysical realism is non-sense.

Dr. Steven pinker is obviously not a racist, and he takes the view that there are genetic differences between races that lead to different outcomes via nature. One of the things he points out is that Jews, regardless of where they live in the world, tend to have higher average intellect than the population around them, and he attributes this, in part, to genetics.
Genes are quantifiable; intelligence quotient (I.Q.) is not. So Pinker's attribution, even in part, necessitates more than his just saying "Jews are smarter than everyone."
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@whiteflame

Antibody titers are common practice. Beyond that, to say that the antibody production of another individual in no way informs your own doesn't make sense to me. If production is monitored across a broad set of people over a long period of time and found to be largely consistent, then yes, doctors can actually predict what will happen in you.
No, they cannot predict what will happen to me; they can guess what could happen to me.

I don't see how this is so, since a study like this necessarily must look at individuals. If I'm monitoring the production of antibodies after the administration of a vaccine and comparing it with an individual who receives a placebo, I'm looking at two individuals, not a population. If I continue to expand that outward and see this individual dynamic is true across a very large swath of patients, then saying that the vaccine induces an antibody response in the vast majority of patients receiving it is not an ecological inference fallacy. It's absolutely not an assumption.
I agree. But that is not what I'm referring to when I state that an ecological inference fallacy has been imputed. If across a very large swath of patients, it is observed that a vaccine has induced an antibody response in the vast majority of those who received said vaccine, and the argument is, "among those who've received the vaccine (thus far,) an antibody response has been induced in the vast majority of them," that's all well and good. However, if from that very same observation, it is argued, "person X should receive a vaccine, and since the vast majority of those who've received the vaccine have produced an antibody response, it is highly likely that person X will produce either the same antibody response or a sufficient antibody response to the virus, the chances of which are equal to the proportion which the vast majority represents," then that isn't all well and good. That is fallacious. It is an ecological intference fallacy--akin to the Division fallacy. The latter conclusion, no matter how extensive or meticulous the report/study is, will be based on an assumption which uses fallacious reasoning.

Antibody titers can be quantified. The rate of production of B cells with those antibodies when challenged with the virus can be quantified. The immune response to the virus following the initial and subsequently increased production of antibodies can be quantified. As for "How strong" it would have to be, that depends on a variety of factors, including the infectious dose received and how quickly the innate immune response is recruited. That certainly complicates things to a degree, but I don't think it invalidates the value of this specific immune response being effective against the virus.
My question on its being quantifiable was not based on the antibody count, but specifically your reference to the "strength" of an immune response, which you've relented relies on a variety of factors which presumably complicate its capacity to be quantified. So let me just ask this: is it possible that an unvaccinated person can produce a sufficient immune response to this COVID-19 virus?

A bit overdramatic.
Not at all, but I concede that this is not your burden.

Well, I appreciate that. I will say that I appreciate the thought you're putting into your responses, even when I personally disagree with what you're saying.
Same here.

I concede the possibility of it. It's also entirely possible that this is a natural strain. I have yet to see substantive evidence that leads me in either direction. The link you provided tells me that there are certainly human-modified pieces of coronaviruses that have been patented. That's true of basically any virus of note, as well as a great deal of bacteria, fungi and other organisms. I don't find that this tells much of a story, personally, especially since these weren't all functional viruses that could be released into the world and actively replicate in humans. I see amino acid sequences, various protein production methods and certain modified proteins, antivirals, protein complexes, antibodies, specific RNA interference methods, and some early vaccine stuff, much of which is likely directed at other coronaviruses that were coming up around that time. Several of those, including SARS-CoV-1 and MERS, are specifically mentioned. None of this looks particularly damning to me.
So this begs the question: what would you need to see in order for it to be damning? And what benchmarks would it need to satisfy?
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Vaccine hesitant versus Anti-Vaxxer Why are they bundled into the same category?
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@whiteflame
That doesn't impart long-term functional changes. mRNA is required for a cell to actually produce a given protein. If those mRNA messages aren't available, then the cell cannot make the associated protein. What the vaccine does is introduce that messaging molecule to cells, giving them instructions on how to make the protein. That message degrades within a short timeframe, and the cells can no longer make the spike protein afterward.
Can mRNA be manipulated to create long-term functional changes where the mRNA message doesn't degrade within a short time frame?

And clearly, we disagree that the statement you've put into quotes hasn't been substantiated.
The vaccine's efficacy cannot be (reasonably/logically/scientifically) controlled. Hence, the statement "covid vaccine prevents covid death" cannot be substantiated.

If emphasizing the value of those lives is emotional, then so is deemphasizing it. Your argument was that "the urgency of the vaccine's necessity is grossly exaggerated." How do you determine that if you're not basing it on the value of lives lost? Isn't that statement predicated on the view that the number of lives being lost to the virus does not impart a sense of urgency?
It's the subject which concerns how each of us values the lives lost to this virus that imputes the appeal to emotion. That is, your attempt to make a distinction between our arguments, particularly on the urgency of the vaccine's necessity, is contingent on how much we presumably care about "saving lives." And I put that in quotes because the vaccine's efficacy hasn't not be controlled.

I still disagree. Good hygiene must be practiced consistently across the board to be effective, and every individual must do it because, failing that, every individual remains vulnerable to infection through any number of interactions with airborne particles. Vaccination must be practiced for the number of required shots across a sufficient population to dramatically restrict the spread of the virus, not for every individual.
Vaccination requires inoculation among 70% of the population (some have pushed for 90% with Covid) to be "effective" and attain herd immunity. What is the significance in the 30% differential?

I don't see how counting after the fact is problematic. You can compare the population of unvaccinated with the population of vaccinated and determine, based on that, the propensity for death from COVID-19 among those populations. Vaccines are inherently a preventative measure, so this is literally the only means we have for determining whether a vaccination was effective. You can argue that it's imperfect all you want because it's not a direct test, but it's also a very large test spread across a very wide population with a very large group of unvaccinated to compare with. 
Counting after the fact being the only means does not mean it's a sufficient means.

As for the rest of this, which largely amounts to responses to DoubleR rather than responses to me, it seems like your goal with this argument is to point out that the actual numbers of deaths doesn't suggest a very high death toll for the virus. I'm not particularly great with statistics, and it's not my goal to dig up numbers to make my case for a certain number of deaths (though I think the comparison should be between total numbers of infected and total deaths, rather than comparing total deaths to the overall population).
I was referencing a previous statement of mine to DoubleR in response to your point about the hospitalization and death statistics. Even if we were to place significance on the total number infected and the total deaths, it would still render a 98.4% "survival rate." I put survival rate in quotes because it's ecological and fallacious. The point I'm making is not to give validity to these statistics; it's to demonstrate that even if we are to indulge these fallacious reasons, it would still not favor vaccination.

I also think that's besides the point, because it seems to me like the case you're making is entirely numerical in nature, i.e. some unknown number of deaths "demand, require, necessitate, or even justify a mandate" whereas a smaller number (presumably the one you just derived), does not. I've already said I'm not interested in getting into the morality or immorality of a mandate, and I think focusing on the total numbers of dead as a means of either justifying or dismissing a mandate falls into that camp. What you find to be a sufficient number to be moral may differ from mine. I've also said that I personally have mixed feelings about the mandate (I never said I supported it), so I don't know why you're continuing to argue this point.
Any focus on the mandate would require moral analysis; therefore, to avoid discussions on the morality of the subject, we have to drop the point about the mandate. I'm against it; you have mixed feelings. That alone should suffice.

I'm not asserting when I'm basing it on known elements of the vaccine and how long they stick around in the body. The weight of existing evidence about what the vaccine does and how long it lasts suggests that its side effects are limited to a narrow window of time.
And to what extent is the scope of this evidence considered? The side effects (allegedly) aren't the only things "limited to a narrow window of time."

Long-term side effects can only occur when some lasting change is made. There is no evidence that I am aware of that suggests a lasting change, apart from the production of an immune response and resultant memory cells that stick around. I acknowledge that a possibility exists, but given the complete absence of evidence suggesting that the vaccine either sticks around in the body or causes long-term changes to the body that could yield substantial side-effects, the plausibility of that concern is another matter.
How are long-term side effects supposed to be observed absent of a long-term?

I also have population data, which you haven't addressed, that suggests that this death toll does not exceed the normal death toll in this population and has not been linked to their receipt of the vaccine. For someone who has been very quick to pounce on the correlation vs. causation fallacy, you're pretty quick to accept causation in this instance.
The population data isn't relevant. It was referenced in an attempt to explain away what I presume they're concluding is a coincidence. But that's not scientific. And their investigation was influenced by the very producers of that vaccine. But you're right: I can no more say that death immediately after covid vaccine means that covid vaccine produced death, than you can say taking a covid vaccine and experiencing persistent survival afterwards mean covid vaccine prevented death.

Your argument appears to be the following: because we cannot perform the perfect study to demonstrate vaccine effectiveness, we must dismiss any claims to a reduced infection, hospitalization or survival rate. I strongly disagree.
This is part and parcel the reason "seem/appear" shouldn't be present in an argument: I am not at all stating that the studies are deficient because they're not "perfect." I'm stating the conclusions from these studies are logically inconsistent/unsound and based on fallacious reasoning. And, as I've mentioned above, even if were to indulge this fallacious reasoning, it still wouldn't favor vaccination, much less a mandate.

Your point was that none of these studies "has anything to do with one's own individual health." Doctors can monitor that. And yes, that includes your personal antibody production.
I never said Doctors couldn't monitor my personal antibody production; I said that the antibody production of another cannot inform on my own antibody production.


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Some observations regarding debates on DebateArt
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@3RU7AL
66% is a great start.
Perhaps the reputation of a voter can play more of a role in one's capacity to cast a vote, rather than some laundry list of metrics which the moderators believe substantiate an "impartial" vote. Their reputation of course is determined by the market of individuals who participate in the debates.

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@whiteflame
I agree with the former statement to a point. If the argument is that there could be long-term effects, then I'd like to know where those potential effects could be derived from if not the material from the vaccine or the resultant products of its expression.
What about the vaccine's function in "teaching" cells to produce covid spike proteins as means to develop an immune-response?

As for the latter statement, I disagree. I guess it depends on how much you value of the lives lost in the process of trying to contain this pandemic,
You're appealing to emotion; you can no more gauge the value I place on these lost lives anymore than I can yours. Hence, there's no point in bringing it up, especially considering the argument, "covid vaccine prevents covid death," hasn't been substantiated.

I've got mixed feelings about the mandate, but suffice it to say that I don't see it as inherently immoral, particularly if it gives various exemptions. Not going to get into the morality of a mandate here, though.
Arguing it's moral integrity depends on which moral philosophy we use as a metric. I am however certain that I can argue its immorality consistent with any metric that's worth while.

I think it could be the primary countermeasure, assuming that everyone behaves accordingly. It's extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't.
No, it is. The conditions you propose qualify this measure no more than it does the others. Here, for example: "vaccination 'could be' extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't." Good hygiene would still be the primary countermeasure.

In the hospitalization and death statistics. If they're getting hospitalized in far fewer numbers and dying in far fewer numbers than the unvaccinated, they tend to do much better than the unvaccinated.
Your conclusion from these statistics are based on a post hoc fallacy.  You're claiming an efficacy of vaccination simply by counting after the fact. In December of 2020, 336,802 were claimed to have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. Give or take, there are about 332,000,000 people in the United States. If we subtract the 2.8 million who were vaccinated at that point, then we'd have, give or take, 329,200,000. Now if we divide this number by the number of deaths in December of 2020, and multiply it by 100, then that is 0.102% of the unvaccinated who have succumbed to this virus. If we considered the amount of people who had remained hospitalized at that point, assuming they weren't vaccinated, then it would .0360% of the unvaccinated were hospitalized.

Now I had a discussion with DoubleR  in August on this very issue which expressed the stats as it concerned the unvacinnated:

You said half the population has been vaccinated and yet 99% of COVID-related deaths are among the un-vaccinated.  Let's for a moment indulge these statistics at face value. For example, the United States has a population over 330 million, about 210 million of which are adults. Thus far, there have been about 616,000 people who have died in the U.S. as a result of COVID--or so they state. 99% of that is 609, 840. According to the CDC, 165,637,566 people have been vaccinated which accounts for about 49.9 percent of the population. So, 50.1 of the unvaccinated would amount to 166,301,444. Now we take 609, 840 deaths of the unvaccinated, divide it by 166,301,444 of the un-vaccinated populace and multiply it by 100 to acquire the percentage. Do you know what that percentage is? 0.367%. Not even close to 1 percent. That means 99.633% of the un-vaccinated have survived after being exposed to this virus for almost two years.

Now there are studies that say that COVID deaths go as high as 900,000 in the U.S. Substitute this figure in the previous calculations and that would still mean that 99.464% of the un-vaccinated have survived after being exposed to this virus for almost two years. Your interpretation of your own statistics fail you, sir.
Now you can say that the number of deaths among the unvaccinated increased about 10 fold, but how much of that is due to increased prevalence of infection, and how much of that is by reason of a depleting unvaccinated populace? Every person who gets vaccinated subtracts the same number of those who are unvaccinated which affects the numbers whether they were at risk of succumbing to COVID-19 or not.

Now let's use current numbers. The CDC claims that 64.1% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine and that 55.1% are fully vaccinated. If we were to accept these figures, that would suggest that the population is now at 332,077,036. Now if we take 35.9% of this population, which represents those who haven't received a single dose, then that would amount to 119,215,656 unvaccinated people in the U.S. It's claimed that there are 685,000 deaths total from COVID-19, so assuming they were unvaccinated, that would suggest 0.574% of the unvaccinated have succumbed to this virus. That means that 99.426% of the unvaccinated have survived this pandemic in a span of almost two years without being vaccinated even when the numbers are skewed and misinterpreted.

Finally, let me ask you: does a 99.426% survival rate among the unvaccinated demand, require, necessitate, or even justify a mandate?

The difference here is that your argument is based in the view that there could be something that happens in the long term, but lacks any analysis of the vaccine or other vaccines that provides a meaningful basis for believing that such long terms effects are more than just faint possibilities. It's possible, I grant that, but I don't grant the plausibility of long-term harms because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine and its product.
I can no more assert that "such and such" effect will happen than you can assert that "such and such" effect won't happen because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine an its product.


There was a bit of a fact check by Reuters on this one. Apparently, no causal link between their vaccinations and their deaths were discovered. Also, considering the already substantial death toll among the elderly in nursing homes (an estimated 45 each day), attributing these deaths to vaccination solely because they happened to receive the vaccine the day they died is a bit problematic.

You have a "public statement." That is not a fact-check. (Especially considering Pfizer's involvement in the investigation.)

My argument wasn't that the vaccine affords absolute protection from death, though I think these numbers are similar to those in my link. Saying that they aren't attributable to the vaccine only begs the question of what you could attribute this high survival rate to among the vaccinated population.
Since we cannot control for the effects of the vaccine as it pertains to its capacity to prevent death, the prospect of which would necessitate observation of both the survival and death of the same individuals, then any "survival rate" attributed to the vaccine would be chiefly based on a post hoc fallacy. Unless you can substantiate that a person would have died with certainty absent of being inoculated with this vaccine, the survival rates are moot, especially considering, as I demonstrated above that, absent of vaccination, the U.S. unvaccinated have a 99.426% "survival rate."

...I'm sorry, does antibody production have nothing to do with individual health?
The antibody production of another individual, for example, cannot inform on my antibody production.

We can look at individual patients and monitor differences between a vaccinated and unvaccinated person in terms of what they produce with regards to immune defenses and provide a pretty clear picture of how they're likely to respond to the virus.
And the conclusions from such a method would produce an ecological inference fallacy. That is not science; that is mere assumption.

There is always going to be variation in how people respond to the virus, but having a head start on an immune response provides a pretty clear picture of how likely they are to mount a strong immune response to the virus before it has time to replicate and spread.
And to what extent can this be quantified? "How strong" does one's immune response have to be?

I'd say that the rushed schedule was justifiable given the existence of the ongoing and, in some cases, worsening pandemic. I'd also say that a lot of the studies were done before this that paved the way for these to be produced in both a safe and efficacious manner. You clearly don't agree with either assessment.
You're right, I don't.

Again, would really love to see that patented virus. I haven't been able to find it. Assuming that it was patented, I'd like to see some evidence that it's the same coronavirus. Coronaviruses existed before the patent, they existed afterward, and they have been worked on in many labs. If you can provide some link between that patented virus (not really sure it exists, but I'll assume it does) and the current pandemic, be my guest.
If I had the evidence you seek, I would have either been murdered, or the subject of both morning and evening news for years to come. But admittedly, this is not your concern. I'm banking on the idea that you're a fairly intelligent individual, at least from what I have observed during my time in this  forum, who can put two and two together, especially considering your expertise on the subject of microbiology with the particular focus on viruses.

But I will ask this: is it conceivable, plausible, or even possible that the COVID-19 virus could have been a strain developed from a manipulated SARS-Cov base?





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