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VTL Earth
Won't be around much rest of the phase so don't want to risk being off-wagon and ruining wagonomics here.
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@Mharman
341
That's not a slip, he's solving for a v!Earth with the context of his earlier posts I think?
Never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down
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@Mharman
I also don't like how he just assumes Earth is going to flip town. scum slip?
Where does he say this?
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@Mharman
It's a bad plan regardless of Earth's alignment. Like if Earth is town, then we lose a confirmed townie (if Savant is town, that's what he will be after he flips) in exchange for gaining a confirmed townie, and we're also in MYLO immediately. If Earth is scum, then we're literally always going to kill Earth today unless you have a better suggestion so idk why we'd put town on evens and lose a lim.
Like being on odds versus evens is one of the most important things in mafia because it gains you an extra lim, going in the reverse loses us the one margin of error we have here.
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Been busy today, don't end day yet, there's a 50% chance I still haven't gotten my real agenda done yet, I need to come up with a few more ideas for cover then do it tomorrow.
Mharman's plan honestly makes me really suspicious because it basically instantly brings us to MYLO no matter what and it's basically a loss if Earth is town and we lost town Savant as well, but I feel like scum him would try to not piss off Savant?
Banana's reaction to Mharman feels towny. Moozer's is okay, could see it going both ways. Tbh I reread Mikal's D1 posting (like really briefly) and it still feels really towny, the only thing that keeps giving me hesitating is the rolecop because I've literally never seen a rolecop work like that on DART and honestly it seems completely overpowered because it apparently can't be fooled by Godfather or some role, I'm presuming? The only reason I'm not that sure on it is that I know Luna defines roles weirdly, e.g. he calls neighborizers Masons even though Masons are town by definition everywhere else I've seen.
I'm kinda down to just Earth being scum by POE right now, dunno who the partner would be but hopefully we can figure it out with the sensor.
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I'm fine with Earth as a lynch just because it would confirm Moozer if he's town and take away the insta-loss of him having the politician vote if he's scum, but we definitely shouldn't rush this phase imo. I want to take a closer look at potential teams outside of that, since either he's paired with someone or we're looking at a rough LYLO depending on if we get a good sensor result.
And again, leaving more time for dropping fake agendas never hurts, I need to emphasize again that if mafia gets the prize today, it's borderline just auto-loss for town.
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Wow five agendas done and I still haven't done my real one (this is reverse psychology, or is it). I'll do the rest when I get back.
I don't care so much about the use on the same day thing, I can see where that could be a legit misunderstanding, I'm mostly concerned about the rolecop thing tbh, I've just never seen it work that way because it's basically equivalent to a stronger Cop? I'm going to check Luna's old games real quick.
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Ok Earth is scum, here's why.
Mikal is back? How about that.
First post of the game. Obvious nervous energy.
@PieReally? You want me to post my reads practically every time I post?My show is after 2000.
Second post of the game. Obviously overdefensive and too eager to claim, he's using a fakeclaim.
You know, I don't know much about it, but there are multiple seasons. I'm debating just outting my show lol.
Third post of the game. Trying to look too towny.
-
Boom, three strikes and he's out. VTL Earth due to my case, obvious scum.
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Nvm, mafia killed Pie last night. I just townslipped
(ok 4 agendas so far, obviously don't take any of what I'm saying rn seriously lmao)
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I think Pie might be scum, not sure why he hasn't been NKed yet if he's town imo.
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@Mikal
If I start to get pushed I’ll just copy the message and Imgur it so I’m mod killed instead of you guys losing a day phase.
Unironically if Savant uses his role as well, then that'd put us on odd numbers (5 players) at the end of the day so we wouldn't lose a lynch, but also don't do this please, dunno if Luna's going to allow that.
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@Mharman
StIll thinking froM your Case on Mikal, it's Obviously interesting but his exPlanation will prolly be a lot more alignment indicative than the actual mechanics, different mods mod different ways imo.
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VTL Austin
VTL Banana
VTL Earth
VTL Mharman
VTL Mikal
VTL Moozer
VTL Savant
unvote
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VTL Austin
VTL Banana
VTL Earth
VTL Mikal
VTL Mharman
VTL Moozer
VTL Savant
probs two scum in this list
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VTL Mharman
Oh my god you suck. There is no way that you could possibly be town after that vote. I'm so towny that anyone voting me has to be scum and you know. You thought you were going to get away with voting me, but you're wrong. Die scum.
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@Mharman
@Mikal
If either of you are around, could you vote me? Just need to start getting my list of 10 agendas done.
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@Mharman
Acknowledging your case, especially on Mikal, I have some thoughts but I want to see how Mikal responds to the pressure first.
Regarding your questions:
1. Your role is one way town can get help with the numbers disadvantage. However, so is Earth’s, and (possibly, but very unlikely). Your take on this?
They seem pretty unrelated, Earth's has to do with an alternative town wincon while mine just redirects the lynch. Any sort of role which messes with the fundamental mechanics of the game, as well as to role mechanics, can be argued to do this.
2. Last DP, you had a methodology that involves town coordinating to give a single person an item. I didn’t get to ask you about this last DP, but you do realize that methodology tells scum who got the item, and helps them plan accordingly, right?
I was aware of the risk, but it was a much lesser risk than town being uncoordinated and letting scum get the item, which is a hundred times worse. People were also already coordinating to give a single person the item, my plan just lessened the risk of mafia voting the 2nd place consensus pick.
3a. Post 79 DP2: You claim to be baiting scum, but who’s to say you aren’t baiting town into such a CC, for sacrificial purposes that could get a teammate one step closer?
If I was baiting town into a CC, wouldn't I follow through with it? And with one scum dead, the last thing I'd do is let myself die when I have what would be an OP role in the hands of scum.
3c. I gave out some specific plan mafia may have been going for last DP. What are your thoughts on those?
Could you remind me of that?
4. What do you think of Moozer?
Prolly town by behavior and cop check, unless he's exactly scum/scum with Earth but I've never lynch him first in that pair.
5. What do you think of the idea that mafia team failed to submit an answer DP1, and that you and Moozer miscommunicated yesterday on who gets the town cred, and are both scum?
I think it's a towny theory by you but it also doesn't make sense for a lot of reasons; me and Moozer are independently towny, Wylted was active enough D1 to submit an answer, and I wouldn't take the towncred, I would let Moozer do so because I'm confident in my scum play ability to not need to take the out, especially - again - since my role would be broken as scum.
6. What is your case for being town?
1. My role, doesn't make sense from a balance pov as being scum, and I wouldn't trigger it this early, if I was scum I'd lie and say something else and only use it if I got run up and was going to get lynched.
2. My meta, as scum I'm way more tryhardy and navigate the thread pretty carefully, I'm in my town meta where I just coast along and give my thoughts on what I feel is interesting or important.
3. I don't think Wylted ever interacts with me like he did in thread when I first entered, he tried to pressure and get me to claim immediately and my response to that was pretty clearly genuine, if I was scum I take the opportunity to do theater instead of just acknowledging his pressure then moving on and solving tbh. Not sure how much this means if you don't know how I play scum but I do feel that's the case.
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I'll be around tmrw morning, my POE is still mostly the same as yesterday but I do want to take Pie's last words into consideration since he's the only one we 100% know to be town.
I think whichever faction gets the prize today wins the game, it's that simple. A vote disabler makes it so any LYLO is an auto-loss for town, since it's impossible to get enough votes to reach majority and scum can reach parity after a no-lynch and NK. Sensor is like...super town-favored for obvious reasons so yeah.
IMO Savant's plan of creating a bunch of agendas to hide the new one is the best possible plan and it's incredibly pro-town for him to do that when he has no reason to, probs just locking him as town for that because if he didn't mention it then town could easily have messed up by making it obvious early on and then scum could've secured the win.
I'm not going to start doing my agendas yet, I want to plan at least 8-10 or so in order to make it really hard for scum to guess. Obviously, do not end the day early under any circumstance whatsoever.
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ok Luna said he would randomize WF's answer if he doesn't submit by deadline.
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Lunatic says he's going to force both to answer. I just asked him how that's going to work (i.e. what happens if WF doesn't answer)
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@Moozer325
@iamanabanana
Alright. If everyone else is okay with ending the day early, I can do it as soon as Lunatic gets back to me.
Tagging everyone right now, in case you want to give any last thoughts or want to tell me to wait a bit.
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@Savant
If WF just never submitted an answer (instead of submitting a silly one) would he lose by default? If he's town, I think that's the best way to play it safe.
I just asked Luna about this, I think this is definitely the best idea because it guarantees the result or insta-confirms WF as scum if I somehow die. But yeah, will get back to you on that.
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I think Whiteflame's plan makes sense, not sure what it means for his alignment. Could be town genuinely trying to be helpful, could also be scum thinking that taking a 50-50 to live to another day is a better shot than trying to survive today.
I'm fine with using my role, but ideally it'd be as late as possible to give us maximum time for dicussion.
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I went
1. Mikal
2. Pie
3. Moozer
Using the strategy of picking the two people directly below me in the playerlist:
1. Whiteflame2. Mharman3. Mikal4. Austin5. iLikePie56. Moozer7. Banana8. Earth9. Savant
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Also, would like some thoughts on how I should use my role, if ever.
As a reminder, it's a gladiator where thread locks, me and the person I challenge have to answer a survey question, and whoever gets an answer closer to what the majority of the other people pick wins the match and the other gets lynched.
So there's no way to guarantee who wins the match, but it's also a neat emergency button in case things really go sideways and we're willing to gamble the game on hitting scum by chance.
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@Mikal
How strongly are you pushing for a WF flip? I'd prefer Mharman but WF is also in my POE - are your concerns just about his claim, or is there anything from today/yesterday I should go over again?
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It's probs towny for Mikal to point out the slip though now that I think about it, just feels like a "gotcha" while scum would play more cautiously around because they know I'm town and have an explanation for it. Also kinda like Savant's reaction.
Not like, that helpful since I already tr both of them, but I do get a lot of my reads from realtime stuff like this and instinctively, it felt pretty good.
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I just think that this much power to deny information to town, especially regarding fundamental mechanics (votes [Wylted's role], flips [the janitor], and alignment [some godfather/lawyer), is pretty ridiculous balancing in a 8 v 3 which is traditionally scumsided by numbers. I'm not discounting is entirely, but I saw some people bring it up as a reason that town!Earth and scum!Moozer is possible, and I'm not really buying it today.
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@Mikal
??????
First one is Wylted's vote-hider, second one is the janitor.
Correct me if I'm wrong here.
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@Mharman
The fact that all three of you don’t want to go for it makes me wonder if I’m correct in calling out the potential plan of Austin’s. I guess it’s your job to tell me why that can’t be the case.
And what is my plan? To get CC'd for no reason whatsoever when about 75% of the game is townreading me for my role and my genuine catchup D1?
I'm not the best player but I have a 5 wins out of 6 scum games here (and the one loss was my third game ever), one of my strengths as scum is navigating mechanics and planning things really carefully so that mechanics only ever implicate town. It's completely baffling that you think I'd ever 1v1 for no reason as scum when you've literally seen me play scum before and it's a large part of the reason why I don't trust your play.
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Welp, unfortunately for Lunatic, I think that regardless that we should be certain one scum is between Austin and Moozer. - MHARMAN
See, this is exactly what I'm talking about. I know I'm town, I townread Moozer for a variety of reasons, and it feels like Mharman is trying to lynch me, act shocked when I flip town, then say, "see, this must mean Moozer is scum". Then all of a sudden if Moozer is town then we're in LYLO and then Mharman can move straight to blaming Lunatic for being a bastard mod or something when Luna literally said not to read into the CC. If we genuinely caught scum that way, Luna interfering and stopping us from doing that would be true bastard modding.
So yeah, feels just like lining up mislynches and distracting from the consensus POE which he's conveniently in.
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@Mikal
Just to be clear - if we give you the prize, you *will* fully explain the reason why tomorrow, right?
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This game is honestly moving too fast for me to keep up, so all I'm really doing is trying to focus on a few important things and leave the rest to players who have better context than I do.
I townread Moozer and Mikal behaviorally; I don't buy that Moozer is a GF or got lawyered when scum already had two information-obscuring roles, and I think that regardless of Earth's alignment, Moozer is town, since scum!Earth would have to guess three consecutive mislynches while explaining away why scum!Moozer doesn't get NKed despite being copped innocenct. Mikal is for his involvement on Wylted, his consistent care for the game and willingness to reevaluate, and just some genuine moments which felt very pro-town, e.g. trying to consolidate town together at the end of last day (which also gave us enough time to lynch Wylted).
Savant is a strong townread; his depth of thought, nuance, and just sheer effort is something I would be incredibly shocked to see coming from scum!Savant, especially with the knowledge that he just came off a long and very competitive towngame in Champs. The way he's been constantly reevaluating, finding new reasons to change his reads, etc, it just completely lacks TMI.
Pie is less of a strong read, but he's felt very much in his town meta this game with his constant aggression and call-outs at things he sees; it doesn't feel like he's being passive or reactionary at well and that's always a good look. I also liked the way he approached Moozer/me earlier in the day, and his posting has consistently not really pinged me as being scum, which is good enough for me when I still don't have reasons to discard my POE.
Earth is a light townlean; I do buy that he won the prize yesterday, and if he's town, the way in which he used and handled it made sense. Strictly speaking, there's nothing stopping him from being scum who faked an inno on Moozer, but it doesn't make a ton of sense regardless of alignment; either he takes away an avenue for an easy mislynch when he could've just not claimed the prize at all, or he ties himself to a teammate and just prays for endgame when neither of them are particularly well-positioned.
Banana is a toss-up. She's had some moments that worried me a lot yesterday, but her approach to me/Moozer as well as being willing to reconsider her reads reads kinda pure. I wouldn't be surprised to see her flip either way, I don't really have a clear read on her but it is what it is.
For whiteflame, I can see the concerns but I'm also not sold he's scum. His claim is convenient, but convenient claims don't equal scum claims; basically, I think it's NAI because he could have done it as town as well, so all that remains is to evaluate him by behavior. I had a light townread on him last day phase because he seemed to be a lot more active than his scum meta; unfortunately, today he's been under heavy pressure, so it's been harder for me to evaluate him this way. I'm not sure what to make of his response; I think he'd probably be annoyed at the pressure regardless of alignment, but I also, from memory, feel that Whiteflame's meta as scum when under pressure is a lot more underhanded; he tries to deflect or just rolls over entirely, whereas here there's some genuine annoyance. It's a weak reason compared to my strong townreads, which is why I can't take him out of POE, but on gut, I do feel this way.
Mharman is my only scumlean; I agree with whoever said that his timing on Wylted could easily be a bus; he conveniently pressured him early in the day yet that pressure disappeared later when it came to crunch time. His response to Savant doesn't read well either. The most important factor for me here is how opportunistic he seems - even after Lunatic literally said not to read into the CC, and others are townreading both me and Moozer and find it more likely that something got messed up with mechanics, he's trying to force the idea of there being a scum inside the pair. That's an easy way to get two mislynches back to back which conveniently puts us in LYLO. I don't mind town getting concerns over the mech, but I do mind that he's trying to expand the POE by two players in a way which doesn't feel like he's actually trying to solve the pair, just trying to lynch within it.
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@Mharman
Still awaiting your response after you check your past message with Lunatic
I double checked, I didn't submit a guess.
Out of the house right now, I'll catch up and post reads when I get back, ping me with anything.
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@Mikal
I mentioned above it could also mean you are both town confirmed. But there was a pretty decent mistake there or Luna would not Jump in. He doesn’t do that normally.
True. Idk, you know Lunatic better than I do, does him telling us not to read into mean that it's more likely that we caught scum, or that we're about to incorrectly lynch within two townies?
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@ILikePie5
I think Moozer saw the “town confirmed” and just went for it. Luna realized he accidentally put a cop mechanic and is trying to say he may have “messed up.” I don’t believe that one bit because I literally asked him last night if he was mistaken with the 8 instead of 9
Idk, if Moozer is scum, why does he try to double confirm himself and get in a CC with me when he's already been somehow copped town? I don't think he didn't see my claim, it would be supreme stupidity to claim it blind without seeing if someone else had claimed it first.
And the thing is, I'm a uniquely bad person to CC against, because I literally have the Town Gladiator role, so if I wanted to (which I'm not going to do right now) I could force a 1v1 vs Moozer and have a 50% chance of winning via the survey mechanic if I was in danger of being lynched over him.
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@ILikePie5
Right now, from my point of view, I'm being forced into a 1v1 with someone who is literally copped town and has zero reason to be lying here. I think I have good reason to be distrustful of that 1v1 because it's an easy way to line up two mislynches back-to-back and put us in LYLO if Moozer is also town.
I need to ask Luna some questions real quick, but right now, I'm more inclined to say something got messed up with mechanics than that Moozer, who is copped town, decided to CC me for fun and profit. Same thing applies for me here - I have no reason to claim that I didn't submit when if I was scum, that would force a CC when I'm already in a good position here. So that's why I'm fairly skeptical of the situation rn.
But yeah, I need to ask Luna something.
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Honestly I just struggle to see Moozer as scum here, I feel like he has no reason to get into a 1v1 with me. And I don't think he accidentally counterclaimed, because no way he just lies like that without seeing that I already claimed, and then why does he CC me?
Feel like it's more likely something got messed up with the mech.
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Alright, so we know that mafia had to have submitted, so that leaves 7 submissions from townies. But if Casey submitted, that'd only leave 6.
1. Whiteflame
2. Mharman
3. Mikal
4. iLikePie5
5. Banana
6. Earth
7. Savant
If Moozer is a townie who forgot to submit, that'd imply 6 town, 1 scum in this block, but I know I'm not scum, so that'd make Moozer scum.
Whereas if Casey didn't submit, that'd imply... all seven have to be town? Which I also know can't be the case because I'm town and there are two scum alone.
I feel like I'm missing something obvious here, Pie, could you go through the logic again?
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@ILikePie5
Oh, I get what you mean. Give me a sec, going to my next class rn, I'll try to figure it out
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Since I thought the 8 players had to be alive, but when Luna announced the result Casey was still alive.
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Just checking in between classes, is it possible Casey submitted a guess? That would make it so that 7 players alive and Casey would account for the 8.
Mharman's claim seems weird btw, I don't see how he mixed up Oracle and Gramps.
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@Mharman
I’m not sure Wylted’s role is all that powerful, just annoying. Town can circumvent by just having everyone say who they voted for. Only really threatening in combination with the 1x politician, and that’s for mind games that help town figure stuff out.
True, but scum can lie about who they're voting for and potentially hammer someone early that way with no accountability.
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Ok, I'll claim - I was the one who didn't submit an answer. I arrived really late in the day and figured that even if I had the right answer (I didn't) someone would've already submitted it so I wasn't going to put effort into thinking about it when I had to catch up on 500 posts.
I decided not to claim that earlier to try and bait scum into saying that they didn't submit, but I realized they don't have any incentive to do it when they're going to get CC'd, so it's probs better just to claim now in order to clarify reads.
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@ILikePie5
Did everyone submit a role name last DP?
I did, I submitted daycop because I didn't think sensor was a daytime role.
Also, in response to your question to me earlier, I already fullclaimed, I'm family Feud which is before 2000.
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