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My POE is Joebob, Luna, and Barney, just bc I heavily tr WF, Pie, Mharman, Savant. If there's a fourth scum, it's probs GP, although it's possible he could also be some sort of 3P just judging by the weird role.
One thing that I think should make me town here is that I was one of the only people to accurately identify Banana/Vader as being town/town last DP. If I'm scum I have literally zero reason to try and defend banana, and then try and discourage Vader as a scumread, when as scum I would just try and fuel the town-v-town violence. Really disappointed that I was literally right and yet we're in this position on literal DAY 3 anyway but w/e.
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My character is social avoidance of death.
My role is "legendary". Basically, at MYLO/LYLO, Wylted will announce that I am "legendary" in the OP.
Justification is a rambling diary entry from Wylted about how people try to gain status and money to feel better about their impending death, and that it activates on MYLO/LYLO because that's when I'm facing death and being mod-confirmed allowed me to socially avoid it (i.e. being lynched).
Not a very useful role, all it does is let me know when town is facing a MYLO/LYLO state (useful if we don't know how many scum there are), and role confirm myself in that regard. I think it does soft confirm me as town just for the way that Wylted worded it as well as the role not making any sense for a scum one, but ymmv and I understand I may still be in some people's POEs.
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@ILikePie5
JoeBob should hammer. He’s my next scummy person
I'd support this, regardless of banana's alignment, if she's telling the truth about her role, that brings the most utility to town
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Just trying to figure out the numbers here
Earth is 3P
Owen is probs 3P? Don't see a reason for town to fakeclaim, and I don't think scum fakeclaims after seeing what happened to Earth
So that's X v X v 2 for a 14 player.
8 v 4 v 2 is horribly unbalanced. Theoretically, the game could end if town correctly lynches two third parties and a vigilante shoots wrong:
-2 deaths to lynch
-2 deaths to NK
-2 wrong vigilante shots
And scum reach parity with 4 v 4.
I think 9 v 3 v 2 is the most likely here. 2 scum is just way too little for a game of this size, especially with 3P.
Operating under the assumption that Savant is scum due to not being added to purgatory (I buy this reasoning, he was suspicious D1 and I don't see why he wouldn't be added):
Then we probs have two scum left.
Honestly I just want to live in the easy world where it's Joebob and banana lol. Idk, I feel it's probably harder than that tho. But yeah, the thread feels pretty towny in general, so it makes sense that the last few scum are probs just getting boxed in and lowposting.
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Kinda conflicted on banana.
I tend to be a player who trusts my gut instinct a lot even though I'm good at explaining my reads logically. I don't think why banana boxes herself in this early by going for a CC when Vader is probably one of the towniest people in the game, and there's an undercurrent of frustration that I feel comes more often from town genuinely upset at not being listened to rather than scum.
If I go purely off logic though, the CC is poor (vengeful/super saint is nowhere near a CC of conditional vigilante, especially in a large playercount game which pretty much has multiple killpower being likely), and I just don't understand the sus of Vader. It feels really one-track-minded, and I saw banana demonstrate far greater depth of thought and nuance in Mayday Mafia, while here it just feels like she's sussing Vader for the CC, and then sussing Vader for... pointing out that trying to get him killed off a poor CC is scummy. It's the latter part I don't like.
I don't think I'll support her wagon today, idk, maybe I'm not going to look great if she flips scum, but it's just what I feel here.
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GP/Barney/Luna occupy a middle ground in my mind, I want to put some more pressure on them tmrw, that's why I'm not entirely a fan of how this phase has focused so much around mechs about a few players, but it's understandable I guess. Barney's aggression feels good so I'd call him the towniest out of the lot - GP's claim by this point trends non alignment indicative considering nothing has been proven, while Luna exists I suppose - maybe I'd slightly FoS him for being more passive than I remember, but he did display some decent nuance in his readslist that I liked.
Joebob might just be scum, idk. I don't really have any reasons to be towning him and his claim is scummy because it provides a convenient excuse not to be NKed and could easily be based off a real claim, especially if town does has a KP role in the form of Vader.
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I think Mharman's curiosity and analysis throughout the DP has been really good - liked the callout on purgatory, seems very likely that Vader shot correctly (which, once again, makes it even more likely that Vader is town). Also, for what it's worth, I was scumbuddies with him a few games back, and his behavior feels completely different.
Same with Pie - the general aggression, sharp questioning, etc lines up with what I remember with him, aside from DP1 where his defense of Casey looks really good in hindsight.
WF occupies a lighter townlean space in my mind - think I've already said this, but he's offering a high ratio of opinions as opposed to just summarization/commentary, which is a good sign - I also think he's shown a high degree of care which usually comes from a town genuinely interested in the game.
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I think Owen's claim is legit? Not exactly sure what he's claiming, but I very much doubt he's a mafia fakeclaiming, considering he saw exactly what happened to Earth yesterday. Either way, even if he's a 3P, I don't see any utility in policying him.
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idk, this DP seems to be going in circles - I've said my piece on Vader and Banana - I'm a lot more confident on Vader being town off mechanics and behavior, and I don't think I'd ever support wagoning him today. My instinct still tells me that Banana's conviction is town, but I really question the utility of threatening to vengekill Vader, I just can't follow the reasoning there and it's making me worried.
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@ILikePie5
Cause the character implicates her. Savant not commenting anything about 14 posts implicates her. I don’t think scum have a choice but to CC. Especially CCing the claimed Vigilante
Explain how both implicate her? I might've missed something
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@ILikePie5
Explain
The problem is that I don't really scumread banana either, I thought her handling of her claim D1 was very towny and the emotions she's showing here are similar to when she got sussed as a 3P in a game a while back.
I also think a lot of the things she's getting sussed for are just more anti-town than scummy. coming from anyone else, I know this might seem weird, but we had a discussion in an endgame thread a while back where I talked about how I can often find low hanging fruit (no pun intended) town by analyzing the motivations behind their actions, rather than how it looks at a surface level. Put yourself in banana's shoes here, why does she CC? I could certainly create a plausible explanation for it being either town or scum, but on the balance of probabilities, it's far worse of a deliberate scum play than just reckless town.
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To be clear, I townread both Vader and banana, it's just Vader's not in danger so I'm not focusing there.
Even if there is scum in there, I think focusing the DP only on these two to the exclusion of questioning other suspects would be a serious mistake - in particular, I want to see more from the lowposters, although I understand I'm being a bit hypocritical in that regard.
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@Lunatic
Banana- Probably scum. I don't like her hesitance on giving information and the "CC" on vader. She is clearly claiming a different role than vader, and largely her balance arguments are just wrong. She's only played in 9 player games, of which I pointed to a recent on that DID have two killing roles. This is a 14 player game which allows for more chaos and leeway with killing roles. If she's town she is playing this very badly by not cooperating with information that could be important to helping us solve the game, and she is also not thinking outside the box if she thinks two killing roles can't exist with each other. It's more likely she is scum and was hoping to ride her town cred from last day phase into a vader CC. I like pie, don't think she is lying about the killing role, but I can see mafia having some kind of killing role too like bomb or super saint, so it doesn't help her cause much even if she is telling the truth. Lastly I feel like she lied to me about having a justification. Her justification being "its about hamas so im a killing role" makes no sense. After claiming she knew what her justification is, I don't like that it was basically non existent.
Even assuming the CC works - why take a one-for-one trade? Everything you're pointing out is more just anti-town/inexperienced rather than actually scummy.
Idk, maybe I'm relying too heavily on WIFOM here, but I just don't see why she so aggressively CC's unless she genuinely believes in it. I still strongly feel Vader is town, but that's independent of banana's handling of the claim.
I'm pointing this out because this feels out-of-character for you - I know that you heavily rely on WIFOM, you were pretty much the only one defending me in that game where I fakeclaimed Jailkeeper, so this reasoning feels very level 1.
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@iamanabanana
I can read just fine, but my point is balance wise this doesn't make sense. You can just unlimited-ly kill people, along with my kill which IS one shot. That is way too powerful for town.
Do you think he's fakeclaiming or that he's a scum vigilante?
Because if it's the former, then where did the kill come from? And a scum vigilante would be way more unbalanced than a town one. idk, maybe it's my own modding experience talking here, but I feel like having two killpower roles for town isn't out of the question and I dunno why everyone's treating it like a hard CC.
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@ILikePie5
I’ll say that I still don’t like Banana. I also mentioned in DP that I thought Banana was hyperbolizing the 14 post. Savant said nothing about it even though he had 14 posts. I even said something along the lines of “no one has claimed something with 14 post,” and Savant was quiet about that.
I'm not sure how that's relevant to alignment? Regardless, it's Wylted we're talking about, consistency is not the norm.
My current read is that Savant was scum, and Supa shot correctly. Because he shot correctly and scum didn’t expect Supa would be a Vig, Supa wasn’t manipulated.
That's definitely possible, I've seen flipless scum before. Could also be some other interference or a hidden aspect of Vader's role.
The flip also establishes the long PM standard. I think we’re also forgetting that it’s conceivable Scum Banana could actually have a killing role, and she’s telling the truth about that piece. My only hesitation is why CC. I’d guess that it’s because she was already exposed with the PM link, and if she gets hammered or whatever, the hammerer dies due to her role.
So why claim the CC in the first place? Like to me, this feels like a 1-for-1 of her behavior after she claimed 3P in ERB. It doesn't make sense for her to CC, regardless of her role, unless she was about to be hammered.
The behavior for Banana is also off, and the arguments she’s making about balance and two killing roles make more sense coming from someone more experienced vs Banana
I get what you mean, but if she has someone experienced behind her, surely they would tell her not to CC so recklessly? I just struggle to see it as a planned scum play.
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ok. I'm mostly caught up, the night phase helped.
My confident townreads are Pie (I think I might get what's going on with his defense of Casey, aggression is within town meta, has shown a high level of care for the direction of the game that comes naturally from town trying to find the answer) and whiteflame (not just for the analysis - I think it's fakable - but rather having a high ratio of opinions as opposed to just rehashing information, which is one of the few semi-reliable scumtells I've found for him).
Leaning town on Mharman, his fight with Pie felt town vs town just in terms of conviction and I don't see how scum benefits in getting in such a long drawn out fight. I had a thought it could be theatre, but tbh if Pie and Mharman are both scum then we might be screwed anyways.
I think Owen's handling of his claim D1 was towny.
GP, Barney, Luna, Joebob, feel mostly null. I feel this is especially out of character for Luna, the other three I often struggle to read because they don't really commit to so many opinions or just lack activity, but even with Luna's schedule, I feel as town he's a lot more aggressive while as scum he's more laid back. Honestly I think there's at least 2 scum in this group, I feel good about my townreads.
That leaves Vader and Banana. Honestly I just townread Vader's claim and behavior throughout the whole game, no offense but he's being logical and nuanced in a way he just completely lacked in the scum game I saw from him and he's also displaying a high level of nuance and care. That aside, I really struggle to see Wylted giving scum an unlimited use vig, that's just absolutely broken especially when the setup already seems messy with hidden flips and a 3P. I guess it's possible that there's one town killing role and one scum killing role, I just find it unlikely.
The problem is that I don't really scumread banana either, I thought her handling of her claim D1 was very towny and the emotions she's showing here are similar to when she got sussed as a 3P in a game a while back.
Honestly, I'm not sure, is there a mechanical reason there has to be scum within them? I feel like two killing roles is very possible for town, especially if they do different thing. Would like to see banana elaborate on her claim either. But yeah, gth, this feels town vs town.
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don't have a strong opinion on Earth, his town and scum ranges have pretty decent overlap and he hasn't contributed a lot this game. basically, not going to shield there, but also not going to vote there either.
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Vader's thoughts align pretty closely to mine so far, probs one of my top townreads just off behavior. if he has a towny confirmable role that'd be nice as well.
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@Savant
Most high posters are experienced players who wouldn't lurk. Do you think scum Luna or scum WF would honestly take the strategy of just not posting? They know better than that, so I don't think activity is too indicative of alignment.
that's what I do as scum and I'd call myself fairly experienced. I'm not saying that all the lowposters are scum, I'm saying that highposting is likely to be town. Continuously posting detailed thoughts with strong opinions becomes increasingly difficult to fake over time, and if it's not done for a clear agenda, it's more towny than not.
That being said, it's certainly not a be-all-end-all for my reads, it's just a tool I'm using to narrow the players I'm focusing more on - again, I'm quite behind and my goal today is just to end with an informed vote.
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If someone could point me in a direction that'd be helpful, struggling to keep track of this many players with all the mech flying around as well. Honestly I just am sorting most of the highposters in town, I might be misclearing one scum there but I doubt that scum aren't among the lurkers/lower activity people especially in a large game like this.
I'll try to explain more of my reads when I can, my goal today is just to be able to plop down an informed vote by the end of the day.
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I haven't fully caught up yet, but Banana, Casey, Mharman, seem roughly town just off behavior/mech.
Pie could swing either way, think the aggression is more in his town meta but I didn't read his posts closely.
Vader seems towny, plus we should wait for role conf.
WF leantown.
Rest is where I'm looking.
Sorry for lack of explanation, haven't had a lot of time today and catching up this many pages is a traumatic experience.
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ok I'm too tired to do much right now.
My gut observation, off threadstate, is that in a gamestate with high amounts of direct arguing and conflict, generally scum will tend to be lower activity unless they're directly in danger. I think out of the active posters, most should be town unless they only started ramping up activity in response to pressure.
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Hi, just got back. Skimming thread rn then I'm going to go to sleep, should have plenty of time to catch up tmrw.
Not sure what the votecount is looking like, but obviously don't hammer if we are close to one.
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uhhh well I said I wasn't going to be an /in until Sunday in the signups thread for a reason
currently on a trip, will be back tmrw night
my role is confirmable, doesn't exactly confirm my affiliation as well but it kinda does in the sense that it would be baffling for it to be a scum role lol
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Backup, you can switch me to an /in on Sunday night
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@WyIted
Feel free to go ahead of me, as you mentioned - if not, would have to delay signups for my own game until like Saturday
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ggs, fun times. got a bit overly invested but glad it all worked out lol.
For future reference, there is no game so easily winning that town can't choke. Take the advantages that you can, game would've been quite a bit easier if I could've cleared one of Vader/Wylted.
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rip, that's hammer.
Good luck, have fun. Don't let my town flip discourage you, I still believe that town has great chances for a win.
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@Savant
Wylted probs town for dumb reasons, can explain a bit later but he has no reason to go this hard for my mislynch, while Vader is more just lurking in the background and passively supporting it
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@WyIted
Luna already mentioned hesitating on Vader.
I can vote I suppose, but I just can't be on the wagon at the end of the day (if he's scum, doesn't matter, if town, I can't be rbed).
VTL Vader
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The only thing about Vader is the early claim.
If scum have ninja then gravedigger is pretty much just a safeclaim.
Not one that I would choose, but I have better reasons to tr everyone else.
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@WyIted
I want you to know that even if you are town the smart play was for you to literally just get lynched and let us work out the Vader thing next DP
Yeah if I had a chance to redo this DP I would probs just claim, stfu, and politely ask town to take a look at Vader and you after I flipped. This is what I get for trying to be mechanically optimal, smh...
I could technically still do that but sunk costs.
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Why would he roleblock you when Casey was hinting at an investigative role with her light CC of GP?
Because I softed a mechanically affecting role at the end of DP1 when I said I had a decent role that I wanted to use.
The point is: even if there was a 1% chance he roleblocked me, there's *zero downside* in simply asking him for his results. If he's scum, great, if he's town, nothing whatsoever is lost.
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I didn't like his post saying that Savant wasn't cleared at all, he didn't explain that and it felt like he was trying to expand the POE.
It also felt like he was deliberately avoiding Luna's points about how I have no path to a win if I'm scum and was just repeating the same things about how I was somehow trying to trick my way into endgaming. With you you're pretty much just straight up accusing me of stalling the game and that'd be a more realistic explanation if I'm scum, aside from the fact that I wouldn't do that because it's pointless.
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Who would you lynch if you weren't the most likely lynch this DP?
Probably Vader, your nonsense is getting annoying but I feel like the smart play for scum is just to stfu and let the rest of town beat me up.
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That's another thing why weren't you lynching obvious scum?
I explained it during DP1 pretty extensively. Being wrong makes me scummy, but it doesn't make me scum, nor does it outweigh all of what I've posted today, nor the fact that I've already accepted that I'm going to be lynched at some point during the game and thus have no path to a win if I'm scum (something you've conveniently ignored).
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@WyIted
Did the correct way to do it is just stfu and catch people in lies. Your post looks like a trap when you already should have known it was literally impossible for him to do an action. If you were role blocked you would have been informed your action failed so what you are saying doesn't add up
Pretty sure most mods don't give feedback if your action fails if you're not an investigative role, so no, I wouldn't know.
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I literally posted the links to the post numbers
And you lied about what the posts were, so no, proper citation format is not towny.
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@WyIted
Because GP flipped scum and Luna was one of the first ones to push him??
I refuse to believe that's real thought, it's literally a classically scummy "gotcha."
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Savant please sanity check my above post because Wylted is saying I said things I DID NOT say to try and get me mislynched
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Austin is not town. Why were you in his scum pile after he jail kept you when it would literally be impossible for you to be scum?Read post 61 where he is attempting to trap you?
This is a straight-up lie.
Savant was never in my scum pile.
I asked to out his results on the slight possibility that he had roleblocked me (roleblocks take priority over jailkeeps, generally) and managed to kill anyway, since I had softed a decent role last DP by saying I wanted to stay off-wagon.
If he was scum, then I avoided throwing by outing too early. If he was town, as I believed, there was zero downside to making him out my results - consider, if I was trying to add credibility to my claim, why not just immediately claim and let Savant confirm?
I'm ngl these straight-up misreps are what's making me sus you here.
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@whiteflame
By contrast, I see the point both he and Luna are making about the potential gains town could get from having another person JK'd. It's not a given that he'd get to use it, particularly if he is town since we know scum have an RB of their own
The town faction perk guarantees my role can't be interfered with.
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To be clear, even if I guilty someone, I am always going to be lynched first, and I'm fine with that.
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@Vader
So like I said, he fakes that he caught someone by waiving a kill, what are you going to do then
I vote myself, y'all lynch me, and then trust my results afterward?
We have three lynches to spare, not two.
Dunno, seems pretty simple.
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There is no risk here. We are lynching austin no matter what next day phase. I PROMISE. I'll lynch him even fully believing he is town. Because the POE this will help us with is much more valuable. There is no reason not to lynch wylted first in this situation trust me. Open your mind to this please!
Just adding to this:
I support this. As I've already said, I'm fine with being lynched tomorrow regardless of my results.
I'll even self-vote.
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@Vader
I can't see a logical reason why he would freak out like this when town are clearly advantaged
If I had a nickel for every game where town lost a clearly advantaged game because they didn't take the advantages they could get, I would have somewhere in the range of 30-50 nickels across the games I've seen on DART and elsewhere.
You're experienced enough that I kinda expected you would know better. I mean, w/e, I know it's tempting to go for the easy answer, but you *are* going to regret not having narrowed down the POE in the slightest tomorrow.
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I'm done with explaining basic mechanics lol.
As far as I'm concerned, I've sold my lynch dearly. Just listen to my legacy, don't get sidetracked, and hold the people lynching town accountable.
Luna is town.
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