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This is fucking me up. I can find ZERO behavioral reasons to sus anyone in my dream. It might be better to focus on the other group of three, honestly. Earth obviously stands out the most, but I actually want to hear more from Luna. I know he said he'd be inactive today but I've seen him be online quite a bit since this DP started, and it's weird that he hasn't said anything despite being online.
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@WyIted
You may want to clarify with the mod
I already did. EXACTLY one person among you, Bullish, and That2 is mafia.
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@WyIted
Not sure why you didn't CC bullish DP1
Tbh, I figured he was investigative (or planning to claim an investigative role) but didn't want to assume that he was actually a straight-up alignment Cop or something very similar in case he was actually a Tracker or something along those lines.
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@Bullish
If we believe you, we have 1/3 chance of lynching scum in 1 group, and the same 1/3 chance of lynching scum in the other group.
That's true. I just found that statement slightly confusing, because for me, 'even odds' has always meant 50/50.
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@Bullish
well that's funny cause whether we believe you or not, we have even odds of lynching mafia no matter what.
How so? What do you mean by even odds exactly? Explain your thought process.
Assuming 2 scum
Well yeah, if there's 3 scum that means we're already at LYLO. That's just bad design.
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@Bullish
How does your dreamer work, is it 1 of 3 is scum, or *at least* 1 of 3 is scum
That's a good question, and it's interesting that you ask. The way Dreamer works in my case is actually a little bit different from how it typically works, in a couple of ways. Here, I was actually told that one of you three is scum. I asked Vader for clarification just to be sure, and yes, exactly one of you, Wylted, and That2 is mafia, which also means that one of Whiteflame, Earth, and Lunatic is mafia.
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@Bullish
I'm cop cause vin is a cop, in case that wasn't obvious.
Cop and a Dreamer? Interesting
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I think I already made it pretty obvious, but just to be crystal clear, I am the Dreamer. As for my character, I am the person who knows Tony Soprano on the most intimate and personal level possible for a person -- Tony Soprano himself, of course. Yeah, I saw the invitation to talk about our characters' relationships to Tony and was like, 'Well...' I hope you all can enjoy my cheeky little softclaim. Anyway, apparently Tony has many surreal dreams throughout the series that often serve as premonitions of things to come, hence Dreamer. Obviously, I dreamt about That2, Bullish, and Wylted last night, which is slightly frustrating for me since it means my townreads were at best only 75% correct (50% if Lunatic turns out to be scum).
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To be honest, my behavioral read on Wylted remains strong. I still think he's town. Bullish claiming to be RB'ed feels a little convenient but hardly inexplicable or even particularly unusual. Starting to have second thoughts on That2. She's not exactly inexperienced from what I can gather. Maybe she just took a good look at her performance in the last game and realized she needed to step it up, and then did so. I did something similar in Gunplay, then got cocky after DP1 since I was so strongly townread.
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@Earth
Interesting character flips... If it is okay, I would like to get some more character claims and hopefully people have useful things to report.
That's reasonable. I, for one, want both That2 and Bullish to fullclaim.
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@WyIted
That it doesn't look good that bullish essentially claimed cop and he is still alive. It could point to a non observant scum team though in which case I think that also means earth is likely scum.
That's an interesting point. I will point out that in Ace Attorney Mafia, WF and Earth both missed the very obvious hints that Luna was an investigative role, to the point that even he was surprised that he was alive with a result DP2. They did manage to hit the other investigative role, but that was more or less on accident. It's also possible that the scum team was trying to avoid hitting the obvious NK target in case they got protected with a protective role. That happened to Pie and me twice in UPick. The fact that we still won that game regardless is honestly absurd.
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@Bullish
@That2User
@WyIted
Interesting that the scum team killed Pie first, considering he wasn't widely townread. Anyway, I have questions for a few of you.
That2 - What are your thoughts on Bullish and Wylted?
Bullish - What are your thoughts on That2 and Wylted?
Wylted - What are your thoughts on That2 and Bullish?
Discuss.
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@WyIted
No. This is what Wikipedia says:
Carmela is a homemaker for the Soprano household, and works to create a semblance of legitimacy for her family, even though she is well aware their wealth is built on "blood money". Tony trusts Carmela enough to confide in her, to a degree, about some of his Mafia dealings, notably the failed attempt on his life and the death of Richie Aprile.
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@WyIted
Earth claimed a character and the character isn't even in the family . She isn't in the mob. I think we need to go earth here
This does not make sense to me. Carmela is Tony Soprano's (the mob boss) wife.
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@ILikePie5
Does this read like an edited Godfather PM to anyone else? I would 100% expect a Godfather in this game
A Godfather would make sense for this game, don't know if Bobby is necessarily the most likely to be one. I'm down to lynch Moozer, though. He's in my PoE and I'm satisfied with Earth's claim for now. Granted, the theme split could be anything at this point, but I doubt that Carmela is scum.
VTL Moozer
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@ILikePie5
Man you’re soon going to be what is it? 0-3 now or 4 lol. Nah but fr it’s quarter close, so just been busy at work since the game started.
Okay, so you've been busy, but can you explain where your read on Earth comes from?
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I'm tired and need to rethink things when I'm less sleepy. I'll revisit this thread tomorrow.
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@whiteflame
Not really clear why you’re writing off Pie, even after reading through your posts about it a couple of times. You just said Pie wouldn’t advise this despite having fake claimed Vanilla in at least one previous game I can recall (I’ll have to look it up tomorrow, I’m fading fast).
Put simply, Pie claiming Vanilla in that game didn't come off as very suspicious to me, though in retrospect, I suppose it should have. Moozer claiming VT in this game, on the other hand, is very suspicious, especially after already having a lot of pressure put on him. I just feel like Pie would have come up with something better. Maybe I'm discounting Pie a bit too much based on that, but I also feel like their interactions do a lot to untie them, in particular #165-#170. I guess it's not impossible that they're paired, but I have a hard time seeing it at this point.
As for my claiming, I’m going to need some basis for doing that aside from just being null to you, which is all I can see from your reads absent the above discussion. You said at one point that I’m in “your lean scum camp,” but I didn’t see a reason after that apart from the hard bus argument. If you’ve got a reason to sus me, I’d like to see it before I claim anything.
I thought I laid it out pretty clearly. It's largely a PoE thing, and I feel like you're one of the least town-leaning players in the game (along with Earth). Although I will say that I have liked your two responses to me tonight, so that does have me reconsidering things.
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@whiteflame
Saying "I like Earth's response" feels really weird to me when Earth hasn't really said anything of substance. I don't understand where that townread comes from.Look back at my read on Earth. Those words do not appear in it.
That was what Pie said, not what you said. Sorry, I guess the way I wrote that is slightly misleading.
I started my response to you by pointing out that those that avoided addressing Moozer’s claim or gave him leeway for it were my picks for likely scum partners. I stated who those people were (WyIted and Pie) and then stated outright that my pick was between the two of them. Only after that did I say anything about a chance of hard bussing, and I stated that no one stood out from anyone who sussed Moozer for his claim. If that’s me suggesting that Moozer was hard bussed, then I clearly did a bad job of conveying myself in the literal paragraph that came before any statement about potential hard bussing. Just because I’m unwilling to dismiss the option entirely doesn’t mean I’m suggesting it happened.
Fair enough, I was going by memory rather than specifically rereading what you wrote in that instance. I still don't think either Pie or Wylted could be Moozer's partner, however.
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@Bullish
Off topic but for a kids show word girl is very witty at times.
That's very true. I haven't seen it in ages, but I do remember watching it when I was getting a little too old for those kinds of shows and still thinking it was a hilarious show. That one scene in particular where Wordgirl broadcasts herself crumpling up a metal rafter in anger as a message to all the villains in town sticks out to me.
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Oh yeah, another thing I don't like about WF: his suggestion that Moozer is being hardbussed. It almost feels like projection to me. Hardbussing a partner during DP1 in a 9 player game is pretty rare. I did that in Gunplay Mafia, sure, but it became very clear to me very early on that GP was not going to survive long, probably not even past DP1, so I wanted to put a lot of distance between us very early, which led to me being one of the primary drivers of his lynch. I don't know if this situation is comparable. Moozer does seem a bit behaviorally sus, sure, but imo it was far worse for him during Indian Politicians Mafia DP1, yet he managed to survive. I don't think scum would be likely to just let one member go at this point. Solo carrying is really hard. I was in a really great position to attempt it during Gunplay Mafia and got really lucky in killing the Doctor immediately followed by lynching the only other person who could potentially stop the NK, and yet I still failed to pull of the win in the end.
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@whiteflame
Lastly, Pie. He feels different to me somehow. His posts seem a bit more terse than usual. Typically, Pie is very open and transparent about his thought process and posts a lot while he's active and online. This game, he feels more reserved, and I feel like I understand his thought process a lot less. I don't think he's scum with Moozer for reasons I've already explained, but I can see him being scum with Earth or WF. Saying "I like Earth's response" feels really weird to me when Earth hasn't really said anything of substance. I don't understand where that townread comes from.
Anyway, WF and Earth are both in my lean scum camp regardless of where Moozer falls, and I often get false positives on Earth, but not WF. Plus, there's already some momentum there, so I want to push him for a claim.
VTL Whiteflame
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Now, as for Moozer. Here's my thing: if he's scum, I don't think he came up with that fakeclaim on his own. I think Moozer knows as well as anyone that most of the games on here are role madness, and claiming Vanilla would be risky. Thinking back to the two games where he has been non-town, he claimed Bookie in Recycled Roles (when he was actually a 3P Lyncher) and Doctor in Indian Politicians. It's worth noting that in the latter game, scum had the option of asking about two roles and two characters to see if they were in the game, so Doctor actually would have been a relatively safe claim once he and his partner Luna learned that there was no Doctor. Later, after there was no NK due to the Martyr being killed and Janitored, Moozer tried to take credit for it. Bookie was also a very pragmatic choice of fakeclaim in context.
So, Moozer seems to choose fakeclaims that are relatively safe and pragmatic, ones which don't draw too much sus toward him. Vanilla, on the other hand, is the kind that immediately draws suspicion. Moozer would certainly know that from playing Years Mafia with me. I was the first to claim in that game, and I honestly claimed VT, which drew a lot of suspicion towards me that lasted up until the final day, when I was part of the final three. There's also the fact that Moozer's character is a fairly major one in The Sopranos, from what I can gather. I just find it hard to believe that he would take that sort of a risk of his own initiative. If it's a fakeclaim, it has to have come from his partner, which begs the question, who might that be?
First, I can cross out everyone I townread. I also don't think Pie would ever advise Moozer to claim what he did. It just doesn't seem like his style. That leaves just WF and Earth for me, and both seem like plausible options. Earth, I can never get a solid read on just because he never says much as either alignment, and any time I do scumread him, it always ends up being a false positive. As for WF, he feels behaviorally null to me this game. I feel like if we're going to push someone here, it should be those two.
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Okay, so first, here are my townreads:
That2 - Mostly obvious reasons, everyone else seems to be townreading her as well, and it makes sense. Her early softclaim and response to pressure felt good to me, and she seems genuinely interested in the theme and potential splits. Pursuing the thread of how players are related to Tony Soprano suggests that she has an actual hunch. It's not impossible that she's scum, no one is 100% town at this point aside from me, obviously, but it's hard for me to find a good reason to scumread her.
Wylted - A few reasons. First, I liked his response to my post #123. Second, he seems to be demonstrating a genuine thought process, which is difficult to do convincingly as scum. In particular, he pinged me for not voting for anyone after my RVS vote for Moozer and tried to get me to give my reads. Third, the way he revealed what he noticed about Moozer's claim - it was very similar to what the wiki page said, which is also true of my role PM. It's hard for me to see why he would do that as scum, and it's not what I would expect from scum Wylted. I think he's probably town here.
Bullish - This one might seem surprising, as everyone else seems to be leaning null to slight scum on him, but the way he opened up this game with his vote on me felt like it came from genuine frustration at me for pushing him during DP3 of the last game. And like, I kind of get it, I was pissed at Disc for killing me for erroneous reasons in Time Travel/Rants mafia for quite a while afterward. Maybe I shouldn't view that as being alignment-indicative, but I'm just not sure Bullish would do that as scum. The bigger point for me, however, is that in the one game I've played with Bullish where he was scum (Debate Mafia), he seemed quite concerned about how the town read him, particularly during DP1. In this game, however, he hasn't shown that at all. Rather, his interactions feel genuine to me. Oh yeah, and then there's his actual character claim and what it implies. Altogether, I think these points add up to put Bullish into my town pile.
Lunatic - This is mostly a gutread and is weaker than my other townreads, but Luna's reads and his early push on Moozer don't feel forced to me. Rather, it feels like he has a genuine scumread on Moozer. It reminds me of how he pushed Wylted in Castlevania Mafia, which is a good sign, obviously.
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@whiteflame
Interesting, thank you. I'll share my thoughts and reads when I get home.
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@ILikePie5
What are your thoughts on Whiteflame
Not sure yet. I'll have to reread the DP when I get home, but nothing about any of his posts stand out to me so far, for good or for bad.
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@Bullish
@ILikePie5
Since you're both online, I'd like both of you to answer the question I asked in #219.
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@Bullish
How are you supposed to get real behaviour if you don't pressure. Twiddling thumbs is not a readable behaviour.
There's plenty of ways to generate discussion that don't involve pushing people for claims completely at random. Thematic discussion, for one thing. I know that on Mafia Universe, lots of games have Anticlaim mechanics which punish character claiming, and statistically speaking, the town still wins more often than not. If you only know one way to play as town, maybe you just need to improve your game.
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@WyIted
I didn't want to state this either but supas character the way he described it is very similar to how Wikipedia describes it or the wiki or whatever and when I look at my character it has a description very similar to the wiki. I would think that if he was fake claiming the impulse is to not make it sound like the wiki, he wouldn't necessarily have knowledge that other characters are written close to the wiki description.
This is actually a really interesting point. My character is also described in a way which is pretty similar to how Wikipedia describes him. However, I do think it's important to consider the possibility that the same thing applies to the mafia characters.
I have some more thoughts on Moozer, but right now I'd like to ask everyone: if Moozer is scum, who do you think the partner is?
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@Bullish
Mafia is NOT a game where "The best bet is to just not play at all"!!! If town doesn't play, then the mafia controls every action in the game. The best bet is actually to play as often as possible.Pushing for claims is literally how we get behaviour. Otherwise the game would just be everyone says they're town then we random lynch.
Way to completely misunderstand my point. I'm not saying we shouldn't ever push for claims. What I am saying is that pushes have to be based on actual behavioral reads and deductive reasoning (PoE). If you just push someone out the gate because they're not good at playing scum, that's no better than just picking someone at random to claim. I hope we can at least agree that that's a terrible strategy.
I said that the best bet is to not play at all in reference to real life casino games specifically. They WILL always win in the long run. I realized this myself when I was younger and would play simulated Blackjack (no real money involved). Even when I played the mathematically best way, my money would still slowly dwindle. Casinos get you addicted to losing money, which is why running one is the most immoral way you can legally make money in this country. This is one of my strongest opinions, fight me on it.
Anyway, the point is that it's a losing strategy, and that's why it's a bad meta. Acting like I'm saying that the town should just lollygag and do nothing is either an indication of poor reading comprehension or a deliberate misrepresentation of my argument.
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@WyIted
My shift at work is about to start. I'll say more later. For now, I'm not crazy about Moozer's Vanilla claim tbh. I don't necessarily want to lynch him right now, but he's a fine option if we don't have anything better by the end of the day. After all, if he is town, we only lose a Vanilla.
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@Lunatic
This applies to literally half the cast but okay lol
Like I said, I've never seen the show before and I also haven't really done any research yet. Might not have been the best softclaim tbh, but I said what I said for a particular reason.
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@Lunatic
I just don't understand his motive in getting information and moving the game forward when he also has a problem with literally applying pressure on anyone to get that information.
He was confused by the pushes on me and That2 because they seemed random and not driven by behavioral reads, which they pretty much were.
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Anyway, I get the feeling that the town is going to be all over me if I don't at least soft my character now even though there is literally no behavior-based reason to be pushing me, so I'll just say that my character knows Tony Soprano on quite a personal level. (This'll probably make more sense in retrospect.)
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@Lunatic
Moozer- Null slight scum?- I don't really give moozer the noob pass anymore so I kind of find some of his takes weird, and ultimately don't understand what his town goals and motivations are. He seems to be okay with town offering information, but when we specify any sort of target for a claim, he gets defensive for that person. First it was that2user, now its casey. He wants information, but doesn't want town to pursue it? I don't understand what his actual goal here is, and I feel like he may be scum using inside information of known town players to get defensive over these players, in the off chance one is lynched he can say "I told you so" because I literally see no other reason he is randomly defending people in dp1 like this.
I don't view things that way at all tbh. Moozer is generally pretty straightforward and easy to read imo. The push on That2 really would have seemed random to someone like him who wasn't in the last game and also hasn't played at all in a while. I don't read Moozer as defending That2, just being a bit confused as to why multiple players were voting for her, which is a pretty normal reaction. I'd say Moozer is a slight townlean rn personally.
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I will say that I find it interesting that Wylted is fine with pressuring That2 for being bad at fakeclaiming when he said this about the same thing happening to him in Shocking TV Moments DP1:
I am going to push back against this or it is just going to continue every game. It's not happening.
Granted, the fact that it was happening to him personally might have made him more willing to push back, and we did just see the mafia self-destruct in a way that Wylted himself hadn't recently done at the time of that DP. Still, it's hard for me not to see this as Wylted being inconsistent about his feelings on this sort of meta.
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@Bullish
we were pressuring that2 and you shut that down cause you thought it was "lame meta". Now I wanna pressure you, cause it's not lame meta.
It is a bad meta, and let me explain why. Any time you pressure someone for a claim, you're taking the risk that the potential benefit outweighs the potential harm. Knowing who people are helps the mafia out a lot, especially if someone claims their role in addition to their character, and at the start of every game, every single player has the same chance of being mafia, so if you immediately single out a single player for being bad at fakeclaiming before you've even had a chance to get an actual read on them, you're trying to get a claim out of someone who is most likely town, just based on statistics. You're not doing risk/benefit analysis there, you're just taking a blind risk and hoping it pays off. You might get lucky one game, but on average, that strategy is always going to help the mafia more than the town. It's like a casino game -- the players can win, and sometimes they can even win big, but the house will always win in the long term. The best bet is to just not play at all.
Now, obviously once you've actually seen someone's behavior, that changes things, but you have to get actual reads before trying to push someone for a claim. Not following this rule is just reckless imo.
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@Bullish
Describe your character without claiming.
I will if you can give me an actual reason to sus me right now.
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@Moozer325
Why are we pressuring that2 right off the bat? That said, I haven’t played with them, but it still feels scapegoating. Past behavior shouldn’t be the only reason to pressure someone this early in the game.
I agree, I think that pressuring someone early just because they're not good at fakeclaiming is a really lame meta. It also really hurt the town in Shocking TV Moments Mafia. I'm not keen to repeat that one.
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Oh wait, just reread the OP, scum do know the theme split. I don't think that changes much, though, as more often than not they figure it out anyway. Theme split analysis doesn't usually help the town much in practice.
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@That2User
Really sucks mafia is being given a theme split
We don't know that the mafia knows the theme split exactly, we just know that they have at least been given a hint about what not to claim.
Not sure why you want everyone to state their relationship to Tony Soprano. Feels like a weird way of getting people to softclaim. I'm fine with claiming my character's gender, though. My character is male.
Also, Unvote
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Checking in. As I said in the signups thread, I have never seen this show and know pretty much nothing about what happens in it.
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@Savant
No I didn't, I just made up some stuff and figured there was probably a serial killer who fit the criteria.
Oh, that's... Worse
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@Lunatic
I feel like there are like 4 current players who even try as mafia anymore and if its not one of them, scum teams just fall apart to laziness.
Tbh I do always try my best, I'm just not very good at playing scum.
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@Bullish
when whiteflame said he wouldn't die and and then immediately died:
To be fair, his role PM was worded in a somewhat misleading way.
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@That2User
Wow, you actually did waive the NP1 kill. Too bad that didn't work out too well for you, lol. That was some terrible luck.
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