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ILikePie5

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Total posts: 17,895

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Invincible Day Phase 2
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@AustinL0926
There are many scum roles that visit without being roleblocked, especially a JOAT, which I think is likely. Consider:

-Redirector
-Bus Driver
-Stalker
-Rolestopper
-Framer (less likely)
Bus Driver and Redirector can explicitly visit two people. Either one is definitely in the game more so than a roleblocker imo
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@AustinL0926
Supa/WF is possible but unlikely I suppose.
Why? What behaviorally has you townreading WF? I laid out why feigning cop innocent on WF basically wins the game for them since POE is left to Pie, Barney, BK. Any 2 lynched means game over. 
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@Best.Korea
There is no explanation for how Barney visited me yet I didnt get role blocked.

Scum has role blocker + janitor.

Barney couldnt have done what he did, if he was scum.
How do you know scum has a roleblocker??
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@AustinL0926
My behavior outed you as scum. A 1-for-1 ain't bad.
All your behavior did was make me full claim. I’m only “outted” to you for shitty reasons at that. You clearly cherry-picked data to support why you thought I was scum and then doubled down on it, citing my “behavior” without even specifying what I even did.
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@AustinL0926
Successful tunneling is called "scumhunting" iirc
Statistically more often than not, you’re wrong. Your role is protecting you, not to mention your behavior got you lynched yesterday. 
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@AustinL0926
If Supa flips scum, do you think a Supa/WF team is possible

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@AustinL0926
You and Barney asked about GP's role mechanics in scumchat, confirmed he can't retrieve his probes if roleblocked. You then came up with the plan to CC someone ASAP to force a lynch, knowing you would get to 2-2 after a mislynch, my lynch, an NK, and GP's death. Good one.
Lunatic didn’t answer questions about other people’s mechanics (I asked about your role when you claimed). I tried in my private PM with him. I’m not scum dude. Your tunneling is going to be wrong
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@AustinL0926
Why are you tunneling me? You saw the results of it last game. Just be rational for a second.
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@AustinL0926
You already won, scum
Dude, the math doesn’t work out. And Vader is definitely scum. No reason to CC as two scum when it isn’t MYLO or LYLO
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@AustinL0926
WTF WHY WOULD YOU HAMMER VADER holy crap y'all are dumb

GP has to withdraw his probes as well, otherwise he dies, and if he gets roleblocked tonight y'all are screwed

WHY WOULD YOU (gp included) NOT READ GP'S ROLE DESCRIPTION???
Vader is definitely scum. That leaves us at 6-1. Your death means 5-1. Successful NK is 4-1. GP dying is 3-1.


It's Barney and Pie. Calling it rn.

So you think Vader is town? No chance in hell. Barney can be theoretically scum, but Vader is 100% scum. I’m definitely not scum
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@AustinL0926
Behaviorally town:

whiteflame

Town but be aware of the possibility of a bus:

Barney

Outer POE:

BK

Scummy scum:

Pie
Sigh.

Can you explain your behavioral read on WF
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@Greyparrot
@Barney
@Best.Korea
@JoeBob
I implore you to not quick lynch me tomorrow. Just please let me lay out my arguments at the very least.
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@AustinL0926
Can you post your final reads before you die?
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@Greyparrot
Whatevs,

VTL VADER

Pie is next!

I know what you did!
In the name of Roosevelt, can you please just listen to my arguments. I have done nothing
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@whiteflame
I'm not going to continue this back-and-forth on game mechanics. If you want to get into those, let's do it with Vader's flip.
Sure.

This is such horseshit dude. I've repeatedly said he is the only person I'm considering beyond you. I've repeatedly said he'd be my NK target during the next DP. That's not "saving" Vader. And let's be clear about this: I've given plenty of reason to sus you via PoE alone. I won't pretend that there aren't other avenues available for explaining what happened during the last NP, but the amount of hoops you have to jump through to get there is just absurd. If you want to argue that those things are plausible, argue after the flip.
It’s against your meta to be this blood thirsty when the straight solution is in front of you. The WF I know is calculative and wouldn’t rush to lynch a non-confirmed scum in the face of confirmed scum. I can see the frustration with Supa’s CC gone wrong.
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@Best.Korea
If Vader gets lynched and turns town, we lynch Barney, obviously.

But if we lynch you and you turn town, the next lynch target becomes a lot less clear.

So I agree that we play the safest possible option and lynch a counter claimed.
Thank you
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@whiteflame
I'd say the odds of you being town are going precipitously down with each post. I don't buy the extravagant conclusions you're drawing about how the NP must have played out. They require so many assumptions that it's gotten absurd.
I’m sure we’ll see with Supa’s flip. At this point balance wise I’m willing to bet my house that there’s a redirector or bus driver. It makes the most sense. Cause killing and eliminating a Kate is weak. If scum only have one other role to use, then it’s glaringly weak.

My assumptions are grounded in balance and the fact that you were trying hard to save Supa
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@whiteflame
I didn't say it's impossible. I'm saying it's exceedingly unlikely that one member of a scum team would both put themselves in the position to get CC'd and simultaneously tie themselves to their scum partner. Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's likely.
It makes the most sense, as I highlighted to Korea. Supa didn’t know he’d be CCed. He has to choose a good target to “Cop.” You’re the best target since it gets his buddy out of the scum pool and leaves the lynch on Pie, Barney, BK. Easy victory.

Yes, we don't, but you seem quite sure that it's one of a very small subset of possible roles and that they used those roles in a very specific way, as opposed to the much more obvious conclusions that can be drawn based on existing claims.
Those are the only two roles I know that can visit two people. And the reason I know is cause I used them in my previous game and Austin explicitly asked me if they count as two visits. I’d be willing to bet my house they’re in the game. Balance wise it has to be true.

So because we know there was a suggestion of a fake role that could be claimed, it must be the Doc? I don't follow this logic.
It should be since we forced BK to claim earlier. 

I don't know how you come to the conclusion that all 5 Kates should be able to die in one NP. That's just spitballing to the extreme, as is claiming that scum can target 3 people simultaneously.
Why? Balance wise it makes sense. If town is stupid to send all 5, then they should be punished. Scum should also have the power to eliminate as many as possible as well. Especially in a game with so many confirmable roles.

Could still what?
Have a cop, role cop, etc and therefore be an investigative role.

Fine, I'll assume you just made an error and we'll just focus on the absurd conclusions you're drawing.
You’re justifying a lynch on me for zero reason when you and I both know Vader is objectively scum and I could still be town and we potentially lose the game
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@Best.Korea
Seriously, whats up with not lynching Vader?
Greyparrot and Austin have been tunneling me this whole game basically. WF could be scum trying to save his scum partner and hope GP fucks up and the game ends right there. It makes no sense whatsoever not to kill Vader. And the fact that I’m having such a hard time trying to get a confirmed scum lynched, makes no sense
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@Best.Korea
Vader got innocent on whiteflame.

So if Vader = town, then whiteflame = town
That’s not necessarily true. Look at the positioning of town at that point in the came. If Supa didn’t get CCed, who was going to get lynched? BK, Barney, Pie. It’s smooth sailing for a WF/Supa team if Supa investigates WF as town.

So the only two scums would be pie and barney.

But if Vader = scum, then the other scum can be pie, barney or whiteflame.

But given the results from being probed, I dont see how Barney could possibly be scum.

So in conclusion, lynching pie then Vader is the very safe play, since even if one is town, other has to be scum as there is no other explanation of the given results.
Just think about it. Vader doesn’t have any other good target to “Cop.” Barney could confirm himself. BK and Pie were top lynch targets. Joe is town. That leaves scum partner WF. Eliminate him from the POE pool and mislynch twice. It’s the easiest victory known to man.

Now, I would kinda prefer that we lynch Vader first, but it seems like it wont happen for some reason.
It will happen. Objectively it’s the smarter choice. 
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@Best.Korea
@AustinL0926
@JoeBob
I honestly don't care that much if we kill Vader vs. Pie. I'm certain both are scum at this point, so it's just a matter of preference. Right now, I prefer Pie. We risk nothing by waiting to lynch Supa in the next DP.
Just look at this. Why is he protecting Supa, who is confirmed scum at this point and willing to lynch someone who is objectively less likely to be scum
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@whiteflame
So your argument is that GP is going to end up killing himself by sending out a Kate when he knows he only has one left? Really?
I don’t control GP. He sent out all 5 probes last night even after you said to hold one back. Either way, it’s concerning that you’re willing to lynch someone who could be town over someone who is CONFIRMED scum. It makes zero sense you’re trying to do this, and it’s concerning 
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@Best.Korea
Yes, but some town members are unwilling to lynch Vader, which is confusing, but I dont mind.
You realize there are 2 votes on Vader. If you switch your vote to Vader, it will be 3. Ask yourself why WF is “indifferent” on lynching a person he knows is scum vs something who he thinks is scum. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever
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@whiteflame
So your responses boil down to "scum could have roles that do this." Fine. So, let's get this story straight:

Vader made a very bold claim that was quickly CC'd. We all agree he's scum. If I'm scum, then the assumption is that Vader targeted me (he'd have to, since no town members have fessed up to doing it) and then broadcast that he had done so.
Why is this not possible? You already know this guy claimed a character that literally got CCed.

Strange as the choice was to claim a character who I think was breadcrumbed in DP1, you'd have to think that Vader made the even stranger choice of both targeting and then outing that he targeted his scum partner, and that's on top of him having some role that he would use on said scum partner.
It’s WIFOM at best. But again, we don’t know the roles in the game that scum has.

As for how you've explained BK, I'll admit there's a greater probability of that, since there's some non-zero chance that BK executed the NK and Supa used some role that targeted both me and JoeBob, particularly if scum assumed I was an informational role and wanted to Redirect me to get an innocent result. That being said, I'd say the probability of a Redirector who landed on a pretty weak choice (Barney was a much better option than me and both Austin and I could see it, so I suspect scum could as well) is not nearly as likely as that BK just Doc'd his target.
It’s possible, but we also know scum were given a strong fake role claim. Claiming Cop with Damian makes zero sense. So what’s the other strong fake claim? Definitely not Commuter. Doctor is the only logical choice.

Scum might have manipulative roles, but if they do, they chose to use one of them on the Vanilla player (and, by your logic, JoeBob), so I don't think it matters much. You have to assume a lot in order to come to the conclusion that it does matter, given what happened to the Kate on me and JoeBob. 
That’s fine, you can think I’m wrong, but it logically makes sense from a balance perspective. Theoretically it should be possible for all 5 Kates to die in one night. If all town and all scum use their powers. Scum can use up to 3 targets probably. Logically it makes sense scum have some role that allows them to target 3 different players.

As for whether Savant was the Cop, I don't think that's super relevant. It's possible he was. What I was looking for from a claim was anything that was affiliation-specific. Cop certainly falls into that category. Whether there's a Lawyer or Tailor in this game is more relevant if there was a Cop, but that doesn't explain everything that's happened.

Also...
There’s a town JOAT so Barney could still. Idk

Wtf dude? Scumslip much? JoeBob, the Innocent Child, and not BK?
I meant WF and BK. You know I meant that, and the fact you’re trying to create something out of nothing is odd
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@Greyparrot
@Barney
@AustinL0926
@JoeBob
Like I get my reads have been atrocious this game, but for a second think about if I am town. You’re literally letting a known scum player live another night and even possibly ending the game. It’s 6-2 right now. If I’m lynched as a townie, Austin dies, GP dies cause his last probe is out, and mafia successfully kill, it’s 2-2 and they win.
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@Greyparrot
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@JoeBob
The fact that there’s a 4/5 wagon on someone who is less likely to be scum than a literally CCed person should be concerning to you. Why lynch me when we have confirmed scum in Vader. Like it literally makes no sense. If you think I’m scum, that’s fine, but there’s objectively no good reason why Vader isn’t the lynch today

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@Barney
Scum might not have known Savants role, but janitored the body to create choas.
WF has an unidentified visit from someone, so that might have been a role cop.

There’s lots of other possibilities, but we know we don’t have a cop, which makes us a lot less powerful. So scum is less likely to have any one power which does multiple things.
The fact that there’s a 4/5 wagon on me right now is frankly insane when we have literally caught scum in Vader this DP. 
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@AustinL0926
The flaw with that logic is that if Savant had that role, there would be no reason for Vader and Barney to both be claiming his role unless they're both lying - which doesn't make sense, as they would then be scum on the same team.
If they’re both scum, it’s the hardest bus I would have ever seen in my life. But it’s high risk high reward. Cause if Vader flips guilty, Barney skates free the rest of the game. Oh the paranoia 
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@Best.Korea
Other than that, I was right that there is a janitor in the game, which means we cant trust new role claims much.
Can’t trust character claims either. So Barney, WF, Vader are all sus on that note, but Vader is definitely scum. That means WF likely used the fake charactaef
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@AustinL0926
Including a single vanilla in a rolemad game is pretty standard, and it seems like exactly the subversion that Lunatic would do for funsies, considering the whole universe is filled with superheroes. I'd be more suspicious if there were two. So I actually townread WF for that claim tbh
It’s not rolemad if there’s a vanilla. Either way, I want BK to die first 
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@AustinL0926
Did you claim yet, btw? If not, did your role possibly affect the Kates?
He did. He claimed Amber Bennett and Vanilla. Only vanilla in the game, which also makes me suspect.
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@JoeBob
I don't mind if we decide to lynch Vader today. But Pie's arguments for PoE coming down to me or BK ignore something crucial: the Kates.

For me, I had a Kate visit me. That was confirmed by both me and GP. The Kate could only have died if someone visited me. No town member has claimed to visit me. That only leaves Vader. So you would have to assume that Vader knowingly targeted his own scum partner for this information to make any kind of sense. The only way that makes sense is if he's the Lawyer or Tailor, but that's a possibility, albeit a remote one given that we don't have a mixed investigator rather than a pure Cop.
There’s multiple roles where this is possible. Also with the fact that Supa went crazy and just claimed whatever, BK makes the most sense as scum to me.

For BK, it's a little more involved. One scum NK'd and Janitored Savant. The other scum visited me. We know this because a) Vader would have no reason to claim he visited me if he or his scum partner didn't, and b) the Kate on me died and no one on town could have done it. That's important because you would have to assume that scum had three separate targets - Savant, me and JoeBob - for all three Kates to have died. I don't know how you explain that.
It’s possible there are roles like Bus Driver or Redirector that count as two visits. Austin asked me the same question in my game and I said they’d count as two visits because you have to pick two players.

The only explanation that makes sense is that BK is telling the truth: he visited JoeBob, resulting in the death of that Kate. Vader or his scum partner visited me (presumably for a failed RB). The other scum visited Savant and NK'd/Janitored him. There may be some more convoluted explanation of how we got to these three Kate deaths, but this makes the most sense.
I’d be willing to bet scum have manipulative rules. Cause I doctor can always just protect Joe. And the watcher can watch the Doctor, etc. It’s game breaking.

We also don’t know what Savant’s role was. If he was the Cop then it’s conceivable that scum have a Lawyer role or something, which explains why Supa as scum would potentially visit WF. Then the bus drive or redirector could explain the Korea and JoeBob probes. Either way. Vader needs to die first. Then we can talk about WF or JoeBob.
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@JoeBob
How is Barney basically confirmed? I mean I’m leaving to vote Vader anyways but I’m wondering how he is.
Counter claiming confirms you in the process. Theoretically he could also be scum CCing his partner, but at this stage in the game, it makes zero sense.

That leaves BK, me, and WF tomorrow. I know I’m probably next on the list. It’s odd that WF is voting me right now when Vader is basically confirmed scum
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Lynch today is clearly Vader. Tomorrow we can decide between BK and WF, though it think BK > WF with the Janitor talk.
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I fully admit my play this game has sucked. I hard townread Vader and scumread Austin. I think we still have a DP to spare with my lynching tomorrow.
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@whiteflame
Yep. Guess it's strange that I'm not going to bat for him then, eh? If people would rather lynch Vader, I'm good with that, but PoE's pretty blatant on this one.
You really don’t have a choice. He got CCed hard. You have to cut your losses and move on
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POE it has to be BK and WF with Vader. Barney is basically confirmed. GP can’t be scum cause he insta claimed in this set up. Austin was a town. Bob is town. We have this game done. I’m definitely LVP this game 
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@whiteflame
VTL Pie 

Some balls to make that claim, dude
Lol he investigated you innocent not me
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Remaining scum is in WF and BK I bet
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VTL Vader
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Looks like my townreading people as town skills are rusty af 

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Wowzas 
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Alright so let’s analyze this:

Pie/BK
Pie/Barney 
BK/Barney

I know I’m not scum but I’m trying to play through the possible scenarios you all may think of. Pie/BK probably makes the most sense to you all after all I townread BK till the end of last DP. Second most probable is BK/Barney and last is Pie/Barney because I led the wagon DP1 for lurking in the first place. From my POV right now, it has to be BK/Barney so I want BK to be lynched over Barney because it provides more info to you all.


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Well via POE it looks like it’s Korea and Barney. Theoretically possible that a Supa/WF teams exists though.
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Whiteflame: Visited by Supa
Savant: Killed by scum
JoeBob: Visited by ???
Best Korea: Visited by ???
Barney: Visited by no one
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@Vader
Please claim so we can solve the game
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@Barney
Best was literally saying he’d visit JoeBob; and those two are of high value to town (at least if BK is telling the truth).
That’s also true. Can you please full claim so we can solve the game
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@Best.Korea
Who did you protect last night and why?
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@whiteflame
...Except Savant said this:


He could potentially have been Amber Bennett and have some other role that would confirm him. Vanilla can't have been that role.
That’s also true. Though Vanilla is a relatively safe claim to make. Behaviorally I don’t have anything to suspect you as of now, so I’m going to move on to Barney and Korea
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@Barney
Ouch! I can’t remember what function they have, but ouch! Also, JoeBob and Best were very likely to have visitors last night.
Why do you say that? 
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