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ILikePie5

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Skyrim Mafia Day 1
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@Mikal
He’s better than me. I’d just hammer myself and laugh 

Anyone I’m done playing this until we decide if we mass claim or until next day phase. This is now annoying me and I’m going to start being a dick 
I already posted the vote count. It’s a no for today. I’ll change my vote tomorrow to yes, idrc
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@Mikal
I think it sets up like that. I don’t think savant is scum. 
You’re wasting time. You’re never getting 5 votes on anyone else. Hammer Savant and let’s move on 
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@Mikal
I mean if you guys are going to throw by doing a dumb policy lynch that’s on you. I just think scum is either heavily on the wagon or not participating at all and I actually think whiteflame would resist that 


I think Connor is half right. I don’t think I’ve learned my lesson. Just when I think town is being annoying. I will sac a game to prove a point. And if I get policy lynched enough, I just go back to not playing or playing of mafia scum/ or epic mafia when I get an itch. I can see connors reason and I buy it because it’s typically his thought process. I don’t buy it for whiteflame. 


I think whiteflame would push back a bit on a genuine town read instead of bandwagoning a policy lynch. And when you guys inevitably do it to me in the following dp. I’m going to lie about my role or refuse to claim as well and mafia will either be leading the policy lynches or just sitting back laughing watching town bury itself 
That’s a fine. Neither of us moving off of the lynch. If Savant wants to throw, then I’ll throw too. Doesn’t make much of a difference to me anyways. Sorry Earth
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@Mikal
So the argument is lynch a person you town read to prove a point or lynch a person you town read because after (24 hours) you think we won’t get another lynch because RM is being stubborn. You know we don’t need RM to Lynch anyone. You just ignore him and move on.  

I’m not sure I buy either of these as plausible or something you would do. Maybe more the first but I feel like you genuinely town reading him is a reason to resist a policy lynch. 
How do you plan on getting 5 votes on someone else without Me, Wylted, Luna, and RM? Cause whoever you vote will not vote themselves for the hammer.
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@Lunatic
The difference between me and pie, is that I won't black list you, ill just support lynching you every game, or just straight up killing you as scum and ensure you have a horrible time playing in every game until you stop this sh1t. We've done it before to people who tried this nonsense we will do it again. I suggest pie changes his mind and join me in the attempt to just lynch you in every game instead of quitting mafia. 
Ya I’m comfortable doing that. Odds are that he roles scum one game anyways. Policy lynch is the way 
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@Lunatic
Ill take this as my answer from earth, I am assuming you already asked him if there was fake claims and he said no
He said it in signups 
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@Savant
Lynch me if you want. That's me taking one for the team.
Great, we will.

No, they'll believe that I could be anything including a power role. Which means that using this strategy all the time is playing to maximize my win rate, literally the point of the game.
No they won’t. They will policy lynch you every game until you stop.

Odd that it's always me being lynched "just to be safe." Not WF, not Mikal, not Luna. Even though you've repeatedly failed to read all of us and tend to over-town-read them while over-scum-reading me. If you keep mislynching me it's your own fault for not recalibrating your reads.
I townread Mikal. Luna and WF are in my POE. Pretty simple really. If you’re not going to cooperate, I will personally lead a policy lynch against you every game. Even better idea than just not playing. Just vote you.
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@Savant
Well if town is gonna lynch me anyway it doesn't matter if I claim, they'll see my full PM the next day.
Great so you’re POE. I fail to see what’s wrong with that in literally a team game. Take one for the team. It’s not like there’s no reason people are sussing you.

And then killed at night w/ the power role. But if I always refuse to claim I won't always get lynched for it and can use the power role.
There can be other roles out there that could protect you, etc. You don’t know that.

Why would I want to help the town when I'm scum?

Mikal has literally said he uses the same strategy and apparently wins a lot with it. So it's not anti-town to use except when I'm scum, in which case I want the town to lose.
Exactly. So every townie has to believe you’re scum. And therefore should lynch you. Otherwise as I said before. It sets a bad precedent. Hell we let Mikal get away with it last game
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@Savant
Not anti-town. Some claims would get be lynched even if I'm town,
And that helps POE for other townies. This is a team game. Sometimes you gotta take one for the team. If you used your role that one game, we wouldn’t won, but you can’t be selfish like that.

and sometimes I have power roles.
Correct and you will be confirmed. 

If I always refuse to claim, town is better off in those games.
And when you’re scum? What then? What is town supposed to do?
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@Savant
Also I do hope the game we're co-hosting is still on, I mean I won't be playing in that one.
Oh ya that’s fine, idm. I’m just not going to play with you if you’re going to be anti-town and basically throw in doing so
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@Savant
That's gonna be difficult for all the games you don't host, cause I'm probably gonna play in all of them.
That’s fine with me. I’d rather not waste my time. It’s up to the mod whether they want you to play or me anyways.
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@whiteflame
So your point is "lynch your townread because I believe scum will be on whatever other lynch is setup." That's not a super convincing argument for why Savant is scum.
The point is that the 3 of us are pretty townie. Out of the remaining the 6, there are 2 scum. 33% odds. If you are town then the only scenario where you don’t vote along with us 3 is if you believe Savant is townier than all 3 of us. Theres also a protective role in the mix that is likely town, meaning 4 townies. 5 possible POE targets, and we can eliminate 3 of them via lynches.

Now let’s make the odds better with behavioral reads. I agree with RM that Mikal and Owen are tilt town for the moment. Let’s assume for sake of argument that one of them is the protective role. We are down to exactly 4 remaining players: Luna, Casey, WF, Savant, which is a 50/50 shot today and if Savant is town, a 66% shot tomorrow and 100% shot DP3.

Now let’s say you think Savant is town and you know you are town, that means you replace yourself and Savant with Mikal/Owen.

The 3 of us aren’t going to vote Owen today nor Mikal. 
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We can discuss all we want; I will unvote if need be. However I’m not changing my vote until Savant claims. And if he doesn’t, I will vote to lynch him and not play in a game with him
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@Casey_Risk
How do you know what role he is?
I don’t. I’m guessing. Either way, I’m not rewarding a non-compliant player. It sets a bad precedent. And if he’s going to continue doing this, I’m not going to play if he’s playing. It’s anti-town.
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@Savant
So you think I'm town and want to lynch me for being "stupid"?
Assuming you are town, you’re stupid to hold on it because it can be a problem later on for POE purposes.
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@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
Eh fuck it, no mass claim. I told Wylted my character, role, and justification already. He’s not dying tonight anyways because of the protective role being on him. 

VTL Savant

I’m pretty sure I know what role he is, and if I’m right he’s stupid to hold onto that information because it can help POE
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@AdaptableRatman
He wants to help his partner get many reads to solocarry later.
He has to avoid the CC first
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@whiteflame
@Mikal
@Casey_Risk
Let me ask you guys this. It takes 5 votes to lynch. Me and Wylted are likely town and RM is lean town. This means scum only need 2 votes to hammer Savant. Why haven’t they done so yet?

4 Scenarios from my POV:

1) Savant is scum
2) Scum is inactive (aka Lunatic)
3) RM is scum
4) Scum want to keep Savant alive for possible buddying/towncred
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@Savant
To be safe I think we should soft claim justification as I described. Give an allegory or a riddle or something that is obviously tied to justification once you explain it.

No that’s stupid cause it means some people can wiggle out with “garbage justification”
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I’m fine with the mass claim. For the record though, I think it’s a cheap move, but it’s technically the mod’s fault for not providing fake claims or the opportunity to get a fake claim. 
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@Savant
You on board to soft your justification at 6pm cst/7pm est on the dot tomorrow?
If were coordinating, just full claim in this exact same format:

Character:
Role:
Justification:
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@AdaptableRatman
Why exactly are you against a mass claim

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@AdaptableRatman
Vote him or me.

I am not changing. 100% 
There’s no reason to rush this. We still have 48 hours left
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Ping
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@Lunatic
Oung
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im going to

Unvote

I want to hear Luna’s thoughts.
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@AdaptableRatman
Stop cluttering. Let everyone read the DP. 
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@AdaptableRatman
Doesnt say that in my role description at all 
So you’re saying you will 100% Dream unless you’re roleblocked?
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@AdaptableRatman
I cannot be visited?

I must have misunderstood wylteds role if he can stop that
If you are visited, you don’t dream dude
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@AdaptableRatman
Investigate WF or Luna tonight please.

Ultra is Town. I am somewhat sure 
We’ll decide amongst outselves.
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@AdaptableRatman
Do you want protectors to prioritise you, Pie or me?
Obviously Wylted. You can’t be visited. I don’t have the investigative power
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@Mikal
Here’s a question for you: why can’t this be scum frustration?
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@Mikal
3 full claims is a lot for dp1. That’s why I’d rather just mass claims with where this is going. The more pressure people have the more info scum have to fake claim. It’s why id rather do it all at once instead of bouncing around to each person 
3 is pretty normal. We get to 4 and mass claim is probably more optimal
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@Savant
Mikal does literally the same thing. Why is it only a problem when I do it?
If he does it, I’m not playing with him either. And I frankly won’t next game. It’s a waste of my time if he’s going to throw for the shits and giggles. It’s not playing to your wincon to avoid claiming when you’re L-1 and know at least 2 townies sus you
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@Mikal
He got killed early for playing his wincon last game and he’s getting targeting it. I read all that as annoyance. 
Townies die all the time. Just cause he’s town doesn’t mean he can’t be lynched by other townies. POE is our best friend and his job is to reduce that POE by claiming. If we don’t like his claim, his lynch helps the POE of those 2 townies at the minimum

The only thing that sticks out where I actually scum read him a bit is activity 

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@Savant
We can do this dance every game if that's what you insist on. You'll just going to have to lynch me day 1 every time.
I’m just not going to play then, and I suspect others will join me. If you’re not going to play to your wincon, then I’m wasting my time anyways
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@Casey_Risk
I'd like some feedback on my thoughts on Ultra first, but I'm okay with pushing Savant for a claim. 
I agree with your analysis on Owen, but he immediately gave up his first letter. That + the ask for a mass claim is either overconfident scum or town imo. 
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@Mikal
The only thing that sticks out to me about savant is the lack of posting and effort compared to normal. It’s extremely different from the past 2 games. I would be okay with him full claiming if we weren’t doing a mass claim but he said we’d have to kill him.  I almost feel bad bullying him but his behavior this game is certainly not on base with his normal style of play. Like glaringly so 
It’s not bullying to ask him to full claim. At least 2 townies have him as scum. It’s his job to exonerate himself and give up his claim, or succumb to his fate.
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@Mikal
It’s useless dp2. We need to consent and do it all together. If it’s effective. It has to be done at the same time and claims stick out. 

Dp2 it’s worthless. 
Why is it worthless DP2?
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@Casey_Risk
I agree that the frustration reads as genuine, but I could see him avoiding doing the percentage thing as scum largely because it would be hard to fake. I feel like it would require more effort as scum.
Tbh, I never even read those chunk posts. They didn’t mean much to me. I still like my golden rule of Character + Role + Behavior
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@AdaptableRatman
I thought Whiteflame knows it too.

I don't see remotely why knowing theme more is a good reason to keep the mafia around.

It makes them far more dangerous to keep around. Mikal if scum now got a lot of info on everyone from the letters alone.

Also if Mikal knows about a game usually Lunatic does too.
+1
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Pie: A-M
AR - Esbern - Dreamer
Casey: S
WF: A-M
Mikal: E
Ultra: M-Z
Savant: H
Wylted - Balgruuf - Deputizer
Lunatic: M-Z

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There’s a way to confirm if RM is telling the truth tomorrow. He definitely shouldn’t be the lynch today.

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I’ll catch up when I’m at the gym today, but Wylted told me to

VTL Savant
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@Mikal
I low-key wana mass claim at a specific time. 

I think we solve the game 
I don’t think a mass claim makes sense here. Presumably scum already have their fake claims created. Theme analysis is also very challenging this early in the game. We can get one more claim and reevaluate.
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@whiteflame
Fair enough. I'll drop my sus, I do buy that he's likely town based on his behavior so far. If WyIted and Pie are willing to set aside their concerns, I am as well.
I agree as well

Unvote
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Pie: A-M
AR - Esbern - Dreamer
Casey: S
WF: A-M
Mikal: E
Ultra: M-Z
Savant: H
Wylted - Balgruuf - Deputizer
Lunatic

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@Lunatic
What range is the first name of your character in?
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@Mikal
I’m also fine leaving Casey alone. 
Explain
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unvote
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