ILikePie5

No it doesn't. Math says we can only lynch x number of times, but it says nothing about when we should vote. This is a swingy game, and we have no idea what scum might or might not be capable of. That's why we need to lynch a scum today.

Also, you were talking about a VTNL well before 420 was modkilled.

I will pop on at 5pm and make a decision. If you are passionate about Pie being the lynch than you need to put together something to convince me. right now arguments like

This seems lie a desperate made up reason to sus someone, especially when the focus should be on the fact that a cop claim was made at all. You probably asked for WF's justification because you were going to sus it no matter what.

Let me get this straight, Pie. There are really no people you would be comfortable lynching right now?

And if there are, you're not willing to fight tooth and nail to get them lynched over a VTNL? You're usually pretty aggressive, so I wouldn't expect you to want to VTNL. That is, unless you are scum and have been cornered with no other out.

Another thing I noticed is that Pie was sussing WF even before WyIted's sort-of-counterclaim.

Ok, so this reminds me of the last game when Pie was scum, and I asked if he wanted to do a 1v1 lynch trade since he was "99.9% sure" I was scum. He derailed that by going on a long speech about how he wants to meet his win condition and getting lynched wouldn't help him do that. Obviously, everyone wants to meet their win condition, but he was missing the point of my argument.

The point is, Pie tends to say obvious and vague things as scum (like "vote analysis matters") to cover for suboptimal decisions like VTNL. We can still do vote analysis without VTNL, and in this case not lynching favors scum.

If Pie says something obvious and condescending in response to a behavioral read instead of addressing the actual issue, be suspicious!

If we lynch Pie and are correct, we may have to VTNL at some point after to help find the teammate. In this scenario, I’d still prefer to gain information sooner rather than later, and I’d rather delay VTNLing, hoping that we end up not having to.

Back to the present:

Obviously because of 420 we will now have to VTNL at some point. Now or later?

Well, to be honest, I still want to invest in future DPs by ensuring that we have as much information heading into them as possible. If we are wrong here and faced with a MYLO that we have to VTNL on DP2, then so be it.

We’d be entering DP3 with a wealth of information, which is much better than VTNLing here and repeating the same discussions with a new flavor tomorrow.

There is another reason, however: The chance of a failed NK. While there’s a lot of variables in this game and a lot is possible, I suspect there is at least one protective role among us. That player has the chance to shut down an NK and rebalance the numbers headed into DP2, which would be an ideal 5v2 at that point.

Of course, everything I’ve said above assumes we lynch Pie and is innocent, which I think is highly unlikely. It is something to think about for those of you who want to VTNL. You may be right that a VTNL is correct, but it doesn’t have to happen now.

I will admit this gave me pause for a moment. However it is entirely WIFOM. It means little because you were hesitant at a time when most were, and obviously being the only one to not show at least some form of pause is going to look very suspicious. 

To anyone reading this: Remember when my top scum reads were Savant and Whiteflame? Let’s turn the clock back to that time so I can properly ask: What would a VTNL do in a world where Whiteflame and Savant are town?

First, town is likely to enter a 6v2 headed into DP2. Not ideal. On top of that, Whiteflame would likely be dead, and Savant roleblocked, leaving him as the most likely lynch of the day. Another townie dead NP2, and town is facing a 4v2 MYLO. They are forced to VTNL for a second time, and are left with a 3v2 LYLO headed into DP4. The two VTNLs wouldn’t have gained much information, and all town would know is that they were wrong to accuse Whiteflame and Savant. But since Whiteflame was lynched in this timeline, no one can be easily held accountable for his death, since all five remaining players can say that they held off on lynching him. No one can easily be held accountable for Savant’s lynch either, given that the whole town would’ve been in agreement in that DP2. So town is left with a guessing game, and they need to be correct twice in a row.

A perfect scenario for the mafia members who proposed the VTNL.

It just seems to me that there's little reason to VTNL. We want scum to be under pressure and at least fear the possibility of being lynched until the end of the day phase

, and VTNL will just be the default if we don't lynch someone. No reason to end the day phase early and remove pressure on scum just to do what would happen by default anyway.

I don't see the point of engaging with that. If you aren't scum nothing I say is going to convince you that you are and if you are then you aren't just going to admit it so it would just become a fluff argument cluttering the next DP.

If otherwise want to see my reasoning they can go back and look at my previous posts, my break is over in 2 minutes. If we get an extension my second break might happen before DP ends.

See now you're just proving my point about trying to turn us against each other. I said he wasn't a safe town read, not that he was scum.

Walked into a clusterfuck at work that I am actively choosing not to be part of so took my break early.

I’m not against it. I’ll vote yes.

If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it, since the day phase was stalled until I woke up. It would only be like a two hour extension max though since I got up fairly early

Okay, so 420 really threw a wrench in the works here. He's about to get modkilled, which will leave us with 6 town and 2 mafia. If we mislynch somebody today, that puts us at MYLO tomorrow, which is nuts. The consensus here seems to be that if we are going to lynch somebody, we lynch either Whiteflame or Pie. I'm not crazy about either of those tbh. I don't like the idea of killing WF due to him claiming cop (I realize that Wylted's role sheds some doubt on his claim, but it's still not a direct cc), and I'm not entirely convinced by the Pie train either. I really don't like the idea of being at MYLO DP2, which makes me think that maybe we should just No Lynch today.

As for picking Pie, my gutread on his behavior still leans town (frankly, I don't think he's likely to engage in this kind of uncertain play as scum), but some of his more recent posts have been confusing. He kept mentioning how people were derailing the vote when he didn't even have a vote down, proceeded to VTL me because he perceives me as the only other viable choice despite his prior concerns about lynching an un-CC'd Cop. My choice would have been to get a claim from Barney, but now that we have 3 full claims on the table (even if one of those is dead), I don't think it's beneficial to keep seeking more this DP. If it's a choice between a VTNL and lynching him, I'd prefer to lynch Pie, since he's moved into my null pile at this point. It looks like he's making this a heads up between the two of us in the end, so I don't think I'm being given much choice anyway. I'll wait for him to post before making a decision.

I gave other reasons. It’s not just the slip, it’s everything else that in context of your slip, makes me believe it is a slip.

doubt

I legit want to lynch savant. I am trying to control the impulse right now. What did he claim anyway, I forget?

Just trying to get the lynch on Pie here.

I really do not want to lynch Whiteflame.

Yes, not sure what to make of it TBH

Let’s just say it just makes sense.

I think that he saw a warning of a potential bomb from Lunatic, and said “oh damn I gotta watch for that”…. Then, when the time came to say why he didn’t want to wait for your claim, the confusion happened and he slipped 

Could be Mharman and Discipulus_Didicit

Did everyone literally miss where I CCed him?

I didn't even say it is a perfect CC but it should be discussed

Yup. New conspiracy theory just dropped... it's whiteflame and pie with pie pushing the no-lynch because he is defending his buddy.

I'm cool with lynching either one.

Pie isn't going to vote for whiteflame... God knows why... probably whiteflame's scum buddy.

ATTENTION

I think I may have found a scum slip.

—————————————————————

Post #71: (paraphrased)

Wylted: I’ll give you my claim next DP

Pie: No because Lunatic said the game could end NP1

—————————————————————

The problem? Lunatic never said that. I checked all of his posts up to that point. He said the game could end quickly for either side, but he never said NP1. 

I’ve been feeling that Pie was irrationally and unusually scared ever since he started to promote the idea of a VTNL, but this might be why. 

The only real way Pie can say that Lunatic said the game could end NP1 is, hear me out:

1. It were true.

2. It was privately confirmed to Pie.

3. That there is something potentially lethal to scum that Lunatic wanted to warn them about because he feels that it would otherwise be unfair; for example, a bomb.

That’s my new theory. In this context, a lot of the weird bacon from Pie that rubbed me the wrong way makes a lot more sense too.

VTL Pie

If this game is that swingy, that doesn’t mean town can lose NP1 like you fear. That’s likely mafia that can lose that quickly.

The soonest I can see us losing is NP2. Knowing it’s a 9 player game, the soonest town can lose normally would be DP3, but I can see some weird stuff happening that allows mafia to end the game on NP2. I remember in another Lunatic game (MMA Mafia, where I was scum), Whiteflame and I abused it for the win.

Dark Lord.

Information. I think a lack of a conclusion to this DP would be harmful to us. We’d fail to get the information from a lynch meanwhile mafia will have wiped a townie out of the pool. Sure, we’ll have night actions to look at, but mafia will have just used their own to help with their agenda. It won’t be much but a new flavor to the same discussions.

Barring something like a 3v1 MYLO, if I have the chance to lynch mafia at the risk of mislynching town, I will take it.

Ideally we’d see mafia get lynched this DP so that we have their numbers reduced along with the information to along with it, but if we lynch and are wrong, at least we didn’t stand there and do nothing while the scum team dictates the flow of the game.

Sure, town has PRs they can use in the night and mafia has things they can say during the day. But the fact remains that town is strongest playing around the day phase and mafia is strongest playing around the night phase. Let’s play to our strengths.

I will tomorrow.

I don’t see it  as yet in towns best interest to do a mass full claim. For one thing, the mystery messes with scum.

I absolutely hate the idea of VTNLing here. I hate it far more than a mislynch.

How are male players supposed to perform without a fluff machine? 🤨

False dilemma anyways. The lynch is inevitably going to be 420.

Is he as town as well?

Really desperate to throw suspicion any way the wind blows, aren't we?

What should I be looking at with barney to change my mind on that town read? 

I don't think savant would be this annoying as scum TBH. 

Yep, that's Pie's defense. Nothing of substance there.

Barney and Casey could be scum, but I'm hesitant to pursue those options since Pie is going after them.

Also notice that nobody else has jumped on the "lynch Pie" train, even though that would be a great opportunity for scum if I was tunneling.

Lynching Pie is the safest option. I've already made my case against him, and he doesn't have a confirmable or important role.

That makes him a safe lynch. Even if you don't think he's scummy, he's certainly not close to confirmed town, so going after him is preferable to lynching no one.

He's also harmed the lynch effort by pursuing people who claimed important roles or can be confirmed.

He defends himself by saying "xyz is the Meta so we should do that" as a general cop-out, which is what he did last game.

I'm sure he thinks he's being "objectively townie" right now and that wf is "objectively scummy," but that hasn't been reliable before.

Kamala Harris or Biden is the only people who can stay in. Did you see the new leaked video of Trump on the golf cart? He seems to think he is running against kamala